cúc phương
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Transcript of cúc phương
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Lng ha mt s gi tr kinh t ca vn quc gia Cc Phng gp phn bo tn a
dng sinh hc
Nguyn Th Ngc nh
Trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin Lun vn Thc s ngnh: Khoa hc mi trng; M s: 60 85 02
Ngi hng dn: TS. Nam Thng Nm bo v: 2012
Abstract: Tng hp, phn tch cc phng php lng ha gi tr kinh t v tng quan mt s kt qu lng ha trn th gii v ti Vit Nam. Tm hiu c im t nhin, kinh t, x hi ca Vn quc gia Cc Phng. Nhn din cc gi tr kinh t ca Vn quc gia Cc Phng. Lng ha mt s gi tr kinh t ca Vn quc gia Cc Phng. xut cc gii php gp phn bo tn a dng sinh hc ti Vn quc gia Cc Phng.
Keywords: Lng ha gi tr kinh t; Vn quc gia Cc phng; a dng sinh hc; Kinh t mi trng
Content
M U
Vit Nam c nh gi l 1 trong 10 Quc gia c tnh a dng sinh hc (DSH) cao
trn th gii, vi cc h sinh thi t nhin phong ph. S a dng v h sinh thi v ti
nguyn sinh vt c th hin cc gi tr chnh nh: bo v thin nhin v mi trng, vn
ha - x hi v kinh t. Cc h sinh thi cn c ngha bo v ti nguyn t v nc, iu
ho kh hu, gim nh tc hi nhim v thin tai. Bn cnh , DSH ng gp ln cho nn
kinh t Quc gia, l c s m bo an ninh lng thc; duy tr ngun gen vt nui, cy trng;
cung cp cc vt liu cho xy dng v cc ngun nhin liu, dc liu.
V l thuyt, c th nhn thy r nhng gi tr quan trng ca cc h sinh thi t nhin
ni chung v DSH ni ring. Tuy nhin, s thiu hiu bit hoc nh gi thp gi tr ca
DSH l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn gy nn s gim st v DSH hin nay. Lng ha
kinh t l cng c c th lm r c gi tr ca DSH ni ring cng nh tng gi tr kinh t
ca h sinh thi ni chung. Kt qu lng ha kinh t s gip cc nh qun l a ra nhng
quyt sch hp l trc nhng sc p trong pht trin kinh t.
Trc thc trng trn, lun vn la chn ti Lng ha mt s gi tr kinh t ca
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Vn quc gia Cc Phng gp phn bo tn a dng sinh hc. Cc Phng c bit
n l VQG u tin v cng l n v bo tn thin nhin u tin ca Vit Nam vi tnh a
dng sinh hc cao. Thng qua kt qu lng ha gi tr kinh t ca Cc Phng, cc nh qun
l s tnh ton c li ch v chi ph ca cc phng n s dng ti nguyn khc nhau, t
la chn c phng n phn b ti nguyn thch hp, mang li li ch ln nht cho x hi
v cng ng. Bn cnh , lng ho gi tr VQG Cc Phng s gip cho qu trnh hoch
nh chnh sch pht trin, c th l la chn phng n bo tn hay cc d n pht trin.
Mc tiu nghin cu ca ti l:
Tng hp, phn tch cc phng php lng ha gi tr kinh t v tng quan mt s
kt qu lng ha trn th gii v ti Vit Nam;
Tm hiu c im t nhin, kinh t, x hi ca khu vc nghin cu;
Nhn din cc gi tr kinh t ca Vn quc gia Cc Phng;
Lng ha mt s gi tr kinh t ca Vn quc gia Cc Phng;
xut cc gii php gp phn bo tn a dng sinh hc ti Vn quc gia Cc
Phng.
CHNG 1. TNG QUAN
1.1. Mi quan h gia h thng sinh thi ca vn quc gia v h thng kinh t
Xem xt mi quan h hu c gia h thng sinh thi v h thng kinh t l xut pht im ca
vic tip cn lng ha gi tr kinh t ca cc VQG. Trong HST, ti mi thi im lun c s tc ng
qua li gia cu trc, quy trnh v chc nng ca h thng. Cu trc ca HST bao gm cc thnh phn
v c v hu c. Cc qu trnh bao gm s chuyn ha vt cht v nng lng. Tc ng qua li gia
cu trc v cc qu trnh hnh thnh nn chc nng sinh thi ca cc HST ni chung v ca cc VQG
ni ring. n lt mnh, cc chc nng ny li cung cp cc hng ha, dch v mi trng v mang
li li ch cho con ngi. Hnh 1.1 trnh by mi lin h gia HST ca cc VQG v h thng kinh t.
1.2. Tng gi tr kinh t ca vn quc gia
1.2.1. Khi nim tng gi tr kinh t mi trng (TEV)
1.2.2. Cc gi tr kinh t ca vn quc gia
A. Gi tr s dng
Gi tr s dng l nhng li ch thu c t vic s dng cc ngun ti nguyn. C th
hiu gi tr s dng l gi tr cc c nhn gn vi vic tiu dng mt cch trc tip hay gin
tip cc dch v do ngun ti nguyn cung cp. Gi tr s dng bao gm: gi tr s dng trc
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tip, gi tr s dng gin tip v gi tr la chn.
B. Gi tr phi s dng
Gi tr phi s dng l thnh phn gi tr ca VQG thu c khng phi do vic tiu
dng mt cch trc tip hay gin tip cc hng ha dch v do VQG cung cp. N phn nh
gi tr t nhn thc ca con ngi v s tn ti ca cc ging loi hoc ca c h sinh thi.
Gi tr v dch v DSH v gi tr v ngha x hi, vn ha l cc gi tr phi s dng. Gi tr
phi s dng bao gm: gi tr lu truyn v gi tr tn ti.
1.3. Cc phng php lng ha gi tr kinh t vn quc gia
Da trn c s l thuyt kinh t, cc nh kinh t pht trin cc phng php thc
nghim lng ha gi tr kinh t ca mi trng. Cho n nay, cha c mt h thng
phng php no c xy dng v p dng ring bit lng ha gi tr ca VQG, thay
vo ngi ta xy dng cc phng php chung ri p dng cho cc VQG c th. V c
bn, tng ng vi tng nhm gi tr kinh t khc nhau s c nhng phng php lng ha
thch hp.
Barbier (1997) phn chia cc phng php thnh ba loi l:
- Cc phng php da vo th trng thc (real market)
- Cc phng php da vo th trng thay th (surrogate market)
- Cc phng php da vo th trng gi nh (hypothetical market).
Ngoi ra, gn y phng php chuyn giao gi tr (benefit transfer) cng c s
dng rng ri trong lng ha gi tr kinh t cc VQG.
3.1.1. Cc phng php da vo th trng thc
1.4. Tng quan mt s nghin cu lng ha gi tr kinh t trn th gii v ti
Vit Nam v rt ra bi hc kinh nghim
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* Bi hc kinh nghim
C th ni, vic lng ha gi tr kinh t ti nguyn c thc hin kh ph bin
trn th gii v ti Vit Nam trong nhng nm qua do yu cu ca cng tc thu thp thng tin
phc v qun l v nghin cu khoa hc. Cc k thut lng ha cng c s dng ngy
cng nhun nhuyn hn t nhm k thut n gin nh lng ha gi th trng n cc
nhm phc tp hn nh m hnh la chn. C th rt ra mt s bi hc c rt ra cho qu
trnh lng ha gi tr kinh t VQG nh sau:
- Lng ha gi tr kinh t VQG i hi khi lng ln thng tin nn v cc iu kin
t nhin, mi trng, kinh t, x hi. c c thng tin nn ny cn c cc iu tra c bn
v h c s d liu y v VQG, c bit l s liu bin ng qua cc nm so snh c
s thay i v cht lng mi trng cng nh thay i v cc gi tr kinh t.
- Cc nghin cu mc d p dng cch tip cn gi tr tng th song cn nu r nhng
gi tr no lng ha c v nhng gi tr no khng lng ha c trong phm vi nghin
cu ca mnh.
- Trong qu trnh lng ha gi tr kinh t VQG, cn s phi hp cht ch gia cc
chuyn gia v sinh thi, chuyn gia kinh t mi trng v cc nh qun l. Chuyn gia sinh
thi gip xc nh s liu nn ca VQG v sinh thi, mi trng, a dng sinh hc ca VQG.
Trn c s ny, cc chuyn gia kinh t mi trng s dng cc phng php, m hnh kinh t
lng ha cc gi tr. Vai tr ca nh qun l cng rt quan trng trong vic a ra cc
mc tiu qun l cn t c, cc kh khn tn ti trong vic qun l cc VQG t cc
chuyn gia kinh t mi trng thit k cc kch bn qun l nhm lng ha cc gi tr phi s
dng.
- Vic p dng cc phng php phi th trng lng ha cc gi tr phi s dng
mc d cn c th gy tranh ci v tnh chnh xc song c cc nh khoa hc trn th gii
cng nhn v c s l lun. C th kt lun rng cho n nay, phng php phn tch phi th
trng l phng php ti u trong vic lng ha cc gi tr phi s dng ca VQG.
1.5. Tng quan iu kin t nhin, kinh t - x hi VQG Cc Phng
1.5.1. V tr a l, phm vi ranh gii
a) V tr a l
b) Phm vi ranh gii
1.5.2. iu kin t nhin
a. a hnh
b. Kh hu thy vn
c. a cht th nhng
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1.5.3. iu kin kinh t - x hi
- Dn tc, dn s:
- Nng nghip:
- Lm nghip:
- Tiu th cng nghip
- Dch v, du lch:
CHNG 2. I TNG V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU
2.1. i tng nghin cu
i tng nghin cu ca ti l cc gi tr kinh t ca VQG Cc Phng.
2.2. Phng php nghin cu
thc hin cc ni dung trn cn p dng cc phng php nghin cu sau:
Phng php k tha: nghin cu k tha cc ti liu, m hnh, k thut, gii php
lin quan v ang c p dng lng ha, xc nh gi tr kinh t ca cc VQG trn
th gii v Vit Nam.
Phng php chuyn gia: xc nh gi tr kinh t ca cc VQG trn th gii v Vit
Nam, xc nh cc nhm gi tr s lng ha, xy dng cc phiu hi, cc cu hi phng vn
phc v cho vic lng ha ti VQG Cc Phng.
Phng php m hnh ton kinh t: cc m hnh ton kinh t c s dng trong
ti nh gi cc khi gi tr kinh t ca VQG Cc Phng bao gm hm chi ph du lch,
m hnh tha dng ngu nhin c tham s v phi tham s. Cc m hnh ny c k tha v
pht trin trn c s cc l thuyt kinh t, c tham vn kin chuyn gia la chn cc
bin s ph hp, c chy v th nghim iu chnh cc li k thut pht sinh.
Phng php iu tra x hi hc: c thc hin ch yu ti hin trng nghin cu
vi cc i tng gm ngi dn, du khch tham quan, cc nh qun l nhm thu thp cc d
liu u vo phc v cho vic lng ha gi tr kinh t v xut cc bin php qun l VQG
Cc Phng.
Phng php x l thng k: cc d liu s cp v th cp thu thp c x l bng
chng trnh SPSS 16.0, Excel v phn mm NLOGIT 4; thng tin trong cc cuc phng vn
su v tho lun nhm cng c x l ring bit phc v cho phn bo co kt qu, tho
lun v xut bin php qun l.
Phng php phn tch, tng hp: s dng trong qu trnh hon thin bo co ti.
Kt qu t cc m hnh x l d liu s c din gii, phn tch v tho lun chi tit. Cc
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bin php v quy trnh qun l cng s c xut da trn nhng kt qu phn tch v tng
hp.
Phng php nh gi gi tr ti nguyn v mi trng: ti nghin cu, h thng
ha v s dng mt h thng cc phng php tin tin trn th gii hin nay lng ha
gi tr ti nguyn ca VQG Cc Phng. V c bn gm c 3 nhm chnh l: cc phng
php da vo th trng thc, cc phng php da vo th trng thay th v cc phng
php da vo th trng gi nh.
CHNG 3. KT QU NGHIN CU V THO LUN
3.1. Nhn din gi tr kinh t VQG Cc Phng
3.1.1. Gi tr s dng
3.1.1.1. Gi tr s dng trc tip
A. G
B. Lm sn ngoi g
C. Gi tr v du lch
3.1.1.2. Gi tr s dng gin tip
A. Gi tr phng h ca vn quc gia Cc Phng
B. Gi tr bo v lu vc nc u ngun
C. Gi tr hp th CO2
3.1.2. Gi tr phi s dng
3.1.2.1. Gi tr bo tn DSH
3.1.2.2. Gi tr vn ha, gi tr lu truyn
3.2. La chn cc phng php ph hp lng ha gi tr kinh t VQG Cc
Phng
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3.2.1. Gi tr s dng trc tip
Gi tr du lch
- Bc 1: Kho st v thu thp thng tin th cp
- Bc 2: Thit k phiu hi
- Bc 3: iu tra ly mu
- Bc 4: X l s liu
3.2.2. Gi tr s dng gin tip
B. Gi tr hp th CO2:
Phng php gi th trng trc tip
- Bc 1: S dng kt qu xc nh tr lng lm phn theo trng thi rng.
- Bc 2: Xc nh h s hp th (Lng hp th lu tr CO2 ca 1 ha rng):
H s hp th (EF) hay tng lng kh CO2 hp th ca mt ha rng (tn/ha) c
tnh theo cng thc sau:
EF (CO2 tn/ha) = (AGB + BGB)* CF*44/12 (1)
AGB = GS* BCEF (*)
BGB = AGB* R (**)
Trong :
EF : l tng lng kh CO2 hp th ca mt ha rng (tn/ha)
AGB : sinh khi trn mt t ca cy rng (kg) c xc nh theo cng thc (*)
GS : l tr lng ca 1 ha rng (m3)
BCEF : l h s chuyn i m rng (tn)
BGB : sinh khi di mt t ca cy rng (kg) c xc nh theo cng thc (**)
CF : l t l cc bon trong cy g = 0,47 (c tra t bng 4.3. T l cacbon ca sinh
khi rng trn mt t Hng dn ca IPCC nm 2006)
R : t l sinh khi trn mt t v di mt t R = 0,37 (c tra t bng 4.4. T l
sinh khi cacbon ca cy rng di mt t v trn mt t Hng dn ca IPCC nm
2006)
H s : 44/12 l h s chuyn i t khi lng Cabon sang CO2
- Bc 3: Tnh gi tr lu tr hp th cacbon
PcMcVc * (2)
Mc =
n
i
SiEFi1
* (3)
Trong :
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Vc : l gi tr lu gi cc bon ca rng tnh bng USD hoc ng;
Mc : l tng tr lng cc bon rng tnh bng tn CO2e/ha;
i: Trng thi rng
EFi: l tng lng kh CO2 hp th ca mt ha rng trng theo tng trng thi
(tn/ha).
Si: Din tch trng thi rng i.
Pc : l gi bn tn ch cc bon (CER) trn th trng tnh bng USD hoc ng/tn
CO2
B. Gi tr bo v lu vc nc u ngun
Bc 1: Xc nh tng din tch t nng nghip trong khu vc
Bc 2: Xc nh lng nc cn cung cp trong ma hn cho 1ha t canh tc nng
nghip
Bc 3: Xc nh mc thy li ph p dng trong khu vc cho 1ha t sn xut nng
nghip.
Bc 4: Xc nh t l phn trm khi lng nc ng gp ca din tch rng
thuc lu vc trong tng lng nc trung bnh cn cho sn nng nghip ma hn.
Bc 5: Xc nh t l % din tch rng ca VQG so vi tng din tch rng hin c
ca khu vc.
Bc 6: Xc nh gi tr bo v ngun nc ca rng VQG Cc Phng theo cng
thc
G= Nbq* Dnn*Nr* Rvqg*P (4)
(Ngun da theo kt qu nghin cu ca V Tn Phng nm 2007)
Trong :
G: tng gi tr bo v ngun nc cung cp cho tng din tch sn xut nng nghip
trong khu vc nghin cu.
Nbq: Lng nc trung bnh cn cho 1 ha t nng nghip trong v ma (ma hn).
Nr: t l phn trm khi lng nc ng gp ca din tch rng trong tng lng
nc trung bnh cn cho sn xut nng nghip trong v ma (da theo kt qu nghin cu ca
V Tn Phng nm 2007)
Dnn: Tng din tch t nng nghip
Rvqg: T l % rng ca VQG so vi tng din tch rng.
P: Thy li ph tnh cho 1 m3 nc cung cp cho sn xut nng nghip trong ma hn.
3.2.3. Gi tr la chn, gi tr phi s dng ca VQG Cc Phng
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- Bc 1: xc nh cc vn cn lng ha. Trong trng hp ny, vn cn lng
ha l gi tr bo tn DSH ca VQG Cc Phng v xc nh s tin m ngi dn WTP
c c gi tr ny.
- Bc 2: Phng vn trc tip cc i tng hng th lin quan l hiu qu nht v
thng qua phng vn trc tip c th d dng gii thch cho ngi nghe hiu v vn ang
nh gi, gii thiu v cc kch bn m phng, ng thi d thu thp c thng tin cn thit.
- Bc 3: Thit k kho st thc t bao gm mt s bc thnh phn. Th nht l s
dng phng phng tho lun nhm (Focus group discussion) vi mt s ngi i din cho
nhm i tng s c phng vn. Trong cuc tho lun s t cc cu hi v s hiu bit
ca ngi dn trong nhng vn cn xc nh gi tr v cc dch v mi trng.
- Bc 4: Thc hin kho st thc t. Nhim v u tin l chn mu kho st, mu
ny phi c la chn ngu nhin. Cc i tng c phng vn c la chn ngu nhin
trong s qun th.
- Bc 5: Bc cui cng l tng hp d liu, phn tch v x l s liu iu tra. Cc
d liu phi c nhp v phn tch thng k bng cch s dng cc k thut thch hp cho
cc loi hnh cu hi.
3.3. Kt qu lng ha mt s gi tr kinh t VQG Cc Phng
3.3.1. Lng ha gi tr trc tip
* Gi tr du lch
xy dng hm cu du lch, cn phi tnh ton 2 gi tr l t l du lch (VR) v chi
ph du lch (TC). Nh trn phn tch, ti p dng phng php chi ph du lch theo vng
ZTCM.
- c tnh t l du lch (VR)
VR = Lng khch trung bnh vng/tng dn s mi vng
Bng 1: T l lng khch n vn quc gia Cc Phng ca vng/1000 dn
Vng Lng khch trung bnh mt nm
ca mi vng (nghn ngi)
Tng dn s vng
(nghn ngi)
T l du lch
VR()
1 37,299 2.724,230 0,014
2 40,169 6.448,837 0,006
3 4,778 7.123,340 0,0007
- c tnh chi ph du lch
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Tng chi ph du lch
Tng chi ph du lch ca du khch ti tham quan Cc Phng bao gm hai nhm chi
ph: chi ph thc du khch phi tr (tu xe, phng ngh, n, mua sm..) v chi ph c hi.
Bng 2: Tng chi ph ca cc vng
Vng Chi ph du lich/1 ngi Chi ph c hi/1 ngi Tng chi ph/1 ngi
(1000 VN)
1 445.564 23.000 468,564
2 6.173.000 27.000 6.200
3 11.173.000 27.000 11.200
- Hm cu:
T l n thm ca du khch trong mt vng VR v chi ph i du lch TC l mt
ng thng. S dng VR nh mt bin c lp v TC nh mt bin ph thuc. Phn tch cho
rng, hi quy dng tuyn tnh c tin cy cao hn dng hi quy logarits th cp. Ta chn
hm cu du lch l:
Trong : + VRi : t l s ln tham quan ca vng i trn 1000 dn/1 nm
+ TCi : tng chi ph i du lch ca 1 ngi trong vng i
ng cu du lch
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
T l du lch (/1000 dn)
Ch
i p
h
du
lc
h
TC (nghn VN)
Log. (TC (nghn VN))
Hnh: Hm cu du lch
Kt qu hi quy:
VR = 11474 799612TC
(R2 = 0,994 chng t gia 2 bin TC v VR c mi tng quan cht ch).
VRi = a + b.TCi
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Trong phng phap TCM , phn din tich nm di ng cu chinh la tng gia tri
gii tr ca du khch i vi VQG Cc Phng. Cn din tch gia ng cu v gi tr chi
ph trung bnh s cho bit gi tr thng d tiu dng ca cc du khch .
Tng li ch c nhn = x 0.014 x 11474 = 82.322 (ng)
Nh vy li ch mt du khch nhn c khi i du lch Cc Phng tnh ra bng tin
l 82.322 VN .
Tng li ch mi vng trong nm = s lt khch trung bnh thng xuyn ti Cc
Phng/1 nm x Li ch ca mt c nhn.
Bng 3: Tng li ch t hot ng du lch ti vn quc gia Cc Phng
Vng Lt khch n/1nm1 Li ch mi vng (ng)
1 37,299 3.070.528.278
2 40,169 3.306.792.418
3 4,778 393.334
Tng 6.377.714.030
Nh vy, gi tr du lch ca vn quc gia Cc Phng l 6.377.714.030 ng.
3.3.2. Lng ha gi tr gin tip
* Gi tr bo v lu vc nc u ngun
Gi tr iu tit nc ti Cc Phng tnh theo cng thc (4) l:
G= 10.000 x 43.948 x 28% x 45% x 74 = 4.097.711. 520 ng/nm.
* Gi tr hp th CO2
Bc 1: Tr lng theo cc trng thi rng VQG Cc Phng
Bng 4: Tr lng cc trng thi rng
STT Loi rng
Tr lng
bnh qun
Tng din
tch
Tng tr
lng
(m3/ha) (ha) (m
3)
1 Rng g l rng thng xanh ngho 53 1.572,9 83.364,76
2 Rng g l rng thng xanh phc
hi 31 669,2 20.743,96
3 Rng tre na 12 1,8 21,72
4 Rng g l rng thng xanh trn
ni 440 16.575,4 7.293.162,8
1 Bng 11
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5 Rng trng 19 268,5 5.100,93
Tng 19.087,7 7.402.394,2
Bc 2. Xc h s hp th, lu tr CO2 (EF)
Tng lng kh CO2 hp th ca mt ha rng (tn/ha) c tnh theo cng thc (2).
Trong sinh khi trn mt t v sinh khi di mt t c tnh thng qua tr lng g
thng phm nhn vi cc h s chuyn i (BCEF, R, CF) theo cng thc (*) v (**).
Bng 5: Tr lng hp th CO2 bnh qun cc trng thi rng
STT Loi rng
Tr
lng
bnh
qun
Tr lng
g thng
phm bnh
qun BCE
F R CF
EF
(m3/ha) (m
3/ha)
(tn
CO2/ha
)
1 Rng g l rng thng
xanh ngho 53 37,1 2,05 0,37 0,47 179,56
2 Rng g l rng thng
xanh phc hi 31 21,7 2,8 0,37 0,47 143,45
3 Rng tre na 12 8,4 4 0,37 0,47 79,32
4 Rng g l rng thng
xanh trn ni 440 308 0,95 0,37 0,47 690,8
5 Rng trng 19 13,3 4 0,37 0,47 125,59
Bc 3. Lng ha gi tr hp th v lu tr cc bon
Bng 6: Gi tr lu tr hp th cc bon cc trng thi rng
STT Loi rng
EF Tng din
tch
Tng CO2
lu tr
n gi
(Pc)
Tng gi tr quy
tin
(tn
CO2/ha) (ha) (tn CO2) (VN) (VN)
1
Rng g l rng
thng xanh
ngho
179,56 1.572,9 282.429 100.000 28.242.900.000
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2
Rng g l rng
thng xanh
phuc hi
143,45 669,2 95.996 100.000 9.599.600.000
3 Rng tre na 79,32 1,8 142.776 100.000 14.277.600.000
4
Rng g l rng
thng xanh
trn ni
690,8 16.575,4 11.450.286 100.000 1.145.028.600.000
5 Rng trng 125,59 268,5 33.720 100.000 3.372.000.000
Tng 19087.73 12.005.207 100.000 1.200.520.700.000
3.3.3. Lng ha gi tr phi s dng
Kt qu phn tch phi tham s
a) L do khng WTP
Kh nng nhn thc v thi ca nhng ngi t chi ng gp vo qu nhm thc
hin d n bo tn VQG Cc Phng c s khc bit nhau trong kho st ny.
i vi ngi dn a phng, c 27 ngi khng ng chi tr.
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14
Bng 7:Mi tng quan t l phn trm v l do khng sn lng ng gp
L do/th t Ngi dn a phng
S lng T l %
Ti khng quan tm n vn ny; ti khng c tin
ng gp; khng r, khng tr li 21
77,78
Vic ng gp cho qu ny cc n v kinh doanh in,
nc phi chi tr; ti khng thch ng tin qua qu
mi trng m mun qua hnh thc khc; ti s khon
tin ng gp ca ti khng c s dng ng mc
ch; ti cho rng bo v vn quc gia l trch nhim
ca chnh quyn
6
22,22
Tng 27 100
b) L do ng gp WTP
Kt qu phn tch s liu cho thy, mc WTP cng thp th t l ng cng cao i
tng phng vn c th hin bng :
Trong 75 phiu pht ra c 48 ngi ng chi tr v 27 ngi khng ng chi tr.
Bng 8: Mi quan h gia lng tin v s ngi ng chi tr
WTP S ngi ng chi tr
50000 24
100000 13
200000 8
500000 3
Tng 48
Theo thang im v mc chc chn ca s sn lng chi tr t 1 l khng chc chn,
5 l tng i chc chn v 10 l tuyt i chc chn, c 40 ngi ng chi tr vi mc
chc chn trn 5 im, chim 83,33%, v 8 ngi chi tr vi mc chc chn di 5, chim
16,67%.
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15
Mi tng quan gia mc tin v t l tr li c sn lng ng gp ca nhm i
tng c th hin ti hnh sau. Nhn vo hnh v, ta thy cc mc tin chi tr theo quy lut
l s tin cng cao phn trm t l cng thp.
Hnh: Mi tng quan gia mc tin v t l tr li c sn lng ng gp ca ngi dn
a phng Cc Phng
Gi tr WTP trung bnh mi vng = (mi x sji)/ sji (**)
Trong : mi: mc tin (i=14)
sji: s ngi la chn mc tin tng ng.
Thay s liu vo bng 3.27, ta c:
Gi tr WTP trung bnh = [(24 x 50.000) + (13 x 100.000) + (8 x 200.000) + (3 x 500.000)]/48
= 116.666 ng.
Kt qu phn tch tham s
Kt qu c tnh mc sn lng chi tr
Cc thng s c ngha v mt thng k vi tin cy trn 95% c s dng tnh
ton mc WTP trung bnh. Cc gi tr trung bnh ca cc thng s ni trn ca cc mu c
s dng tnh ton. Kt qu c tnh mc WTP nh sau:
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WTP = [(1,34 x 1,26) + (0,64 x 0,002)/(0,69 x 10-5
) = 243.663 VN
c tnh tng mc sn lng chi tr nhm bo tn VQG Cc Phng
i tng th hng cc gi tr ca VQG Cc Phng c xc nh l dn s ca 3
tnh gip VQG Cc Phng. Theo bo co ca Tng cc thng k nm 2011, dn s ca cc
tnh nh sau: Ninh Bnh l 906.900 ngi, Ha Bnh l 799.800 ngi, Thanh Ha l 3.412.600
ngi. Tng dn s 3 tnh l 5.119.300 ngi. Mt h gia nh c trung bnh 3,7 ngi. Nh
vy, tng s h ca 3 tnh l 1.383.594 h. Do s phiu pht ra c tr li y nn t l
ng tr li l 100%.
Nh vy tng mc sn lng chi tr cho cng tc bo tn tt hn ti VQG Cc Phng
l:
WTP = Tng s h x WTP/h = 1.383.594 x 243.663 = 337,13 t ng
3.4. Tng hp mt s gi tr ca VQG Cc Phng
Bng sau s tng hp kt qu lng ha mt s gi tr kinh t ti VQG Cc
Phng.
Bng 9: Tng hp mt s gi tr kinh t ca VQG Cc Phng
Gi tr Thnh tin (t VN)
Gi tr s dng trc tip
Du lch 6,377
Gi tr s dng gin tip
Bo v lu vc nc u ngun 4,097
Hp th CO2 1.200
Gi tr phi s dng 337,13
Tng gi tr lng ha ca VQG
Cc Phng 1.547,604
(Ngun: tng hp kt qu phn tch)
3.5. xut mt s gii php gp phn bo tn a dng sinh hc ti VQG Cc
Phng
T kt qu lng ha trn y, ti xut mt s gii php gp phn bo tn a
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dng sinh hc ti VQG Cc Phng.
3.5.1. i vi pht trin du lch sinh thi
- Cn xem xt phng n cho thu mi trng rng i vi cc cng ty du lch thuc
cc thnh phn kinh t u t pht trin du lch. vc nh Malaysia, Thailand... thc hin
rt thnh cng m hnh ny.
- Cn to mi trng thun li hn cng ng a phng sng trong khu vc c
tham gia tch cc vo hot ng pht trin du lch.
- Cn thit phi t chc cc lp tp hun nng cao cng tc qun l, k nng phc v
du lch sinh thi cho cn b.
3.5.2. Nghin cu mc chi tr v c ch chi tr dch v mi trng
xy dng c c ch chi tr dch v mi trng th khng th b qua c vic
tnh ton gi tr cc dng li ch ca mi trng, t a ra cc mc chi tr v c ch ph
hp. Vi cch lm ny nu ch xt n dch v mi trng c t rng th phn ln ngi dn
v cng ng c cuc sng gn lin vi rng s c th c hng li trc tip t dch v do
h mang li cho x hi thng qua vic gy trng v bo v rng.
3.5.3. Xy dng c s d liu phc v VQG
- Thng tin nghin cu ca ti v gi tr kinh t ca VQG Cc Phng c th c
chn lc v tch hp trong khung c s d liu ca VQG Cc Phng phc v cho cc
hot ng qun l v nghin cu.
- Gip hoch nh cc k hoch, quy hoch s dng VQG hiu qu, bn vng. Hin nay
xu hng chung trn th gii cho thy cc thng tin v gi tr kinh t VQG l d liu u vo
rt quan trng cho vic tnh ton gi tr ca cc phng n qun l v s dng ti nguyn ti cc
VQG t la chn c phng n mang li gi tr ln nht cho cng ng v x hi.
3.5.4. Lng ghp thng tin v gi tr kinh t ca VQG trong cc chng trnh gio dc
v truyn thng
KT LUN V KIN NGH
Lng ha gi tr kinh t ca VQG l mt lnh vc khoa hc ng dng c ngha rt
ln trong cng tc qun l nhm s dng hiu qu v bn vng ti nguyn. Nghin cu v
lng ha gi tr kinh t ca VQG gip cho cc bn lin quan hiu r hn v l thuyt, quy
trnh, phng php v nhng ng dng qun l ca vic lng ha gi tr. Thng qua cc kt
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18
qu nghin cu c th nh trn, ti xin a ra mt s kt lun v kin ngh nh sau:
1. Lng ha gi tr kinh t ca VQG l mt lnh vc khoa hc - ng dng c c s l
thuyt v cc phng php thc nghim chuyn su, h thng. im mu cht ca vic nh
gi l tm hiu c mi quan h hu c gia cc chc nng sinh thi ca VQG vi nhng gi
tr m n to ra cho h thng phc li x hi ca con ngi. TEV ca mt VQG bao gm gi
tr s dng (gi tr s dng trc tip, gi tr s dng gin tip, gi tr la chn) v gi tr phi s
dng (gi tr lu truyn v gi tr tn ti). Cc phng php lng ha gi tr kinh t ca VQG
c chia thnh cc nhm l phng php da vo th trng thc, phng php da vo th
trng thay th v phng php da vo th trng gi nh. Mi phng php u c u
nhc im ring v ph hp vi vic nh gi mt hay nhiu loi gi tr kinh t ca VQG.
Lng ha gi tr kinh t ca VQG l mt quy trnh gm nhiu bc, mang tnh lin ngnh,
i hi s tham gia ca nhiu chuyn gia v cc nhm x hi.
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2. ti la chn VQG Cc Phng lng ha mt s gi tr kinh t, qua
xut cc ng dng qun l ph hp vi iu kin ca Vit Nam. Trong cc phng php
lng ha, phng php s dng gi th trng trc tip l d p dng nht. Tip l
phng php s dng gi th trng gin tip. Cc phng php phn tch phi th trng nh
CVM i hi d liu nhiu, k thut phn tch phc tp, thi gian di v kinh ph cao.
3. C th nhn din nhiu gi tr kinh t ca VQG Cc Phng nhng trong khun kh
lun vn ch tp trung lng ha mt s gi tr nh gi tr du lch, gi tr hp th cacbon, gi
tr bo v lu vc nc cung cp cho sn xut nng nghip, gi tr a dng sinh hc. c tnh
tng cc gi tr c ti lng ha ti VQG Cc Phng l 1.547,604 t ng ti thi im
nghin cu. y mi ch l kt qu lng ha ca 4 gi tr kinh t, do vy trn thc t tng
gi tr kinh t ca VQG Cc Phng ln hn nhiu. iu ny cho thy tm quan trng ca
vic bo tn v pht trin bn vng VQG Cc Phng.
4. T thng tin v gi tr kinh t ca VQG Cc Phng, ti xut hon thin v
thc hin cc chnh sch qun l bo tn VQG Cc Phng, bao gm: (i) y mnh pht trin
du lch sinh thi, (ii) nghin cu mc chi tr v c ch chi tr dch v mi trng, (iii) b
sung v hon thin c s d liu phc v qun l VQG, (iv) lng ghp thng tin gi tr kinh t
vo cc chng trnh gio dc v truyn thng v bo tn v qun l bn vng VQG.
Ngoi ra, kt qu nghin cu ca ti s a ra cch nhn nhn mi v cc li ch
mi trng m VQG mang li. Vic xc nh cc gi tr ca ti nguyn v nhng thay i v
chnh sch, c ch ti chnh i vi cc loi hnh dch v s l nn tng quan trng phc v
cng tc qun l, bo tn VQG nc ta.
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