csx 2Q 08

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1 Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call 2 Forward-Looking Disclosure Forward-Looking Disclosure This information and other statements by the company contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, cost-savings, expenses, or other financial items; statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operation, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved; statements concerning proposed new products and services; and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements include, among others: (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic or business conditions, including those affecting the rail industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; and (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company. Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward- looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at: http://investors.csx.com/

Transcript of csx 2Q 08

Page 1: csx  2Q 08

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Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference CallSecond Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call

2

Forward-Looking DisclosureForward-Looking Disclosure

This information and other statements by the company contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, cost-savings, expenses, or other financial items; statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operation, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved; statements concerning proposed new products and services; and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate” and similar expressions.

Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements include, among others: (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic or business conditions, including those affecting the rail industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; and (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company.

Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at: http://investors.csx.com/

Page 2: csx  2Q 08

Executive SummaryExecutive Summary

Michael WardChairman, President andChief Executive Officer

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Second quarter overview . . .Second quarter overview . . .

$0.71 $0.71

$0.93$0.89

Reported Comparable

2007 2008

25%Increase

Second QuarterEarnings Per Share

Delivered record revenues, operating income and EPS

Safety and service levels remain strong

Revenue growth strong on diverse portfolio of business

Operating ratio improves, overcoming fuel headwind

Note: Comparable results exclude income tax benefits

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Operations ReviewOperations Review

Tony IngramExecutive Vice PresidentChief Operating Officer

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Leadership, discipline and executionLeadership, discipline and execution

Safety performance remains near record levels

Service near historical best despite challenging conditions

Productivity gains helping to offset the cost of inflation

SafetySafety

ProductivityProductivity

ServiceService

LeadershipLeadership

DisciplineDiscipline

ExecutionExecution

PerformanceExcellence

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Helping lead one of the nation’s safest industriesHelping lead one of the nation’s safest industries

Rolling 12-Month Averages

FRA Personal Injury

1.321.25

1.221.16

1.22

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

FRA Train Accidents

3.143.06

2.86 2.80 2.73

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

13 WeekAverage

1.25

13 WeekAverage

2.36

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Network efficiency resilient in the second quarterNetwork efficiency resilient in the second quarter

Rolling 12-Month Averages

Velocity (mph)

20.120.4

20.8 20.9 20.9

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

13 WeekAverage20.0 mph

Dwell Time (hours)

24.323.7

23.222.8 22.7

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

13 WeekAverage23.3 hrs

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On-time performance declinesOn-time performance declines

Rolling 12-Month Averages

On-Time Originations

77%78%

79%81%

79%

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

On-Time Arrivals

66%69%

70% 72% 71%

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

13 WeekAverage

75%

13 WeekAverage

65%

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Customer satisfaction scores remain strongCustomer satisfaction scores remain strong

Customer SatisfactionOverall Score

6.3 6.47.1 6.9

Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008

CSX Truck Other Railroads

CSX’s overall rating remains near historical high

Satisfaction continues to lead the peer group average

Rails have significantly closed the gap with trucks

Note: Results based on an independent third-party study of CSX customers

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On track to deliver targeted productivity gainsOn track to deliver targeted productivity gains

Continued focus on service and efficiency through design

Process improvement teams driving long-term savings

Total Service Integration takes service to next level

2008-2010Productivity Plan

Targeting over $400 million of productivity benefits through 2010

Network40%

Locomotive15%

Car & Terminal15%

Fuel Efficiency30%

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Operations wrap-up . . .Operations wrap-up . . .

Focused on regaining momentum

Striving for industry leadership in safety and service

Customer satisfaction continues to lead peers

Productivity initiatives delivering value

Page 7: csx  2Q 08

Sales and Marketing ReviewSales and Marketing Review

Clarence GoodenExecutive Vice PresidentSales and Marketing

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Revenues increased 15% to $2.9 billionRevenues increased 15% to $2.9 billion

Second QuarterRevenue in Millions

$2,530

$2,907$377

2007 Growth 2008

Record quarterly revenues

Yield management continues to offset softer volumes

Consistent service driving strong revenue growth

Secular strength reflected in six years of revenue growth

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Revenue growth is strong across most marketsRevenue growth is strong across most markets

Second QuarterYear-Over-Year Revenue Growth

(8%)

(1%)

4%

12%

15%

15%

23%

29%

29%

2%

Automotive

Forest Products

Food & Consumer

Emerging Markets

Intermodal

Chemicals

Metals

Phosphates & Fertilizers

Agricultural Products

Coal

Revenues impacted by the continued softness in

the housing and automotivesectors of the economy

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Price and fuel cost recovery drive RPU growthPrice and fuel cost recovery drive RPU growth

Year-Over-Year Change

6.4%6.8%6.7%6.5%6.5%7.1%

8.1%6.9%

8.0%10.5%

18.3%

14.4%

Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008

Price Increase on 'Same Store Sales' Total Revenue per Unit

Note: ‘Same Store Sales’ price increases exclude impacts from fuel and mix

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Merchandise revenue increases 13%Merchandise revenue increases 13%

Second Quarter2008 versus 2007

13%

(4%)

17%

Revenue

Volume

RPU

Yield management continues to offset softer volumes

Continued weakness in housing related markets

Strength in agriculture, chemicals, metals & fertilizer

2007 Change 2008

RPU $ 1,804 $ 314 $ 2,118

Volume(thousands)

703 (27) 676

Revenue(millions)

$ 1,268 $ 164 $ 1,432

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Coal revenue increases 29%Coal revenue increases 29%

Second Quarter2008 versus 2007

29%

26%

2%

Revenue

Volume

RPU

Export strength offsets decline in utility market

Overall pricing environment remains favorable

Utility inventories are now below prior year levels

2007 Change 2008

RPU $ 1,369 $ 358 $ 1,727

Volume(thousands)

466 11 477

Revenue(millions)

$ 638 $ 186 $ 824

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Automotive revenue declines 8%Automotive revenue declines 8%

Softer economy and tight credit impacting auto sales

Fuel prices causing switch from SUV’s to compacts

Higher yields reflect stronger pricing and fuel recovery

2007 Change 2008

RPU $ 1,874 $ 354 $ 2,228

Volume(thousands)

119 (27) 92

Revenue(millions)

$ 223 ($ 18) $ 205

Second Quarter2008 versus 2007

(8%)

(23%)

19%

Revenue

Volume

RPU

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Intermodal revenue increases 12%Intermodal revenue increases 12%

Second Quarter2008 versus 2007

12%

(2%)

14%

Revenue

Volume

RPU

Record quarterly revenue

RPU higher on fuel recovery and favorable traffic mix

Domestic strength partially offsets international softness

2007 Change 2008

RPU $ 636 $ 90 $ 726

Volume(thousands)

539 (9) 530

Revenue(millions)

$ 343 $ 42 $ 385

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Intermodal reports record second quarter profitIntermodal reports record second quarter profit

Bottom line focus continuesto drive improving results

Revenue growth overcomes softer volume environment

Productivity partially offsets rising fuel costs

Intermodal Operating Income in Millions

$55

$63

$76$71

Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008

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Third quarter revenue outlook is positiveThird quarter revenue outlook is positive

Third Quarter Outlook Percent of Revenue

AutomotiveAutomotive

Forest ProductsForest ProductsUnfavorableUnfavorable

Emerging Markets

Food & ConsumerNeutral

Agricultural ProductsAgricultural Products

ChemicalsChemicals

Coal, Coke & Iron OreCoal, Coke & Iron Ore

IntermodalIntermodal

MetalsMetals

Phosphate & FertilizerPhosphate & Fertilizer

FavorableFavorable

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable

75%

10%

15%

Page 12: csx  2Q 08

Financial ResultsFinancial Results

Oscar MunozExecutive Vice PresidentChief Financial Officer

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Double-digit growth in operating income and EPSDouble-digit growth in operating income and EPS

Variance20072008Dollars in millions, except EPS

$ 105$ 612$ 717Operating Income

43.8

$ 0.22

458.9

$ 0.71

415.1

$ 0.93

Fully Diluted Shares in Millions

Earnings Per Share

$ 61$ 324$ 385Net Income

))

3(32(15

))

3(101(190

))

6(133(205

Other Income (net)Interest ExpenseIncome Taxes

)$ 377

(272$ 2,530

1,918$ 2,907

2,190RevenueExpense

Second Quarter Results

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Core earning power improves 20%Core earning power improves 20%

Operating Income in Millions

$717

$612

$124

($19)

Q2 2007 YOY ReserveAdjustments

EarningsMomentum

Q2 2008

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Core operating ratio improves 320 basis pointsCore operating ratio improves 320 basis points

Operating Ratio Drivers

75.3%75.8%

(3.2%)2.0%

0.7%

Q2 2007 YOY ReserveAdjustments

FuelHeadwind

CoreImprovement

Q2 2008

Note: Fuel headwind reflects the revenue and expense impact from a $222 million year-over-year increase in fuel prices

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Expenses up 14% overall; up 3% excluding fuelExpenses up 14% overall; up 3% excluding fuel

Second Quarter Operating ExpensesYear-Over-Year Change

14%

13%

2%

5%

70%

9%

(1%)

Total Expenses

Inland Transportation

Depreciation

Equipment Rent

Fuel

Material, Supplies, and Other

Labor and Fringe ($ 10)

8

43

221

5

5

$ 272

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Gallons Per ThousandGross Ton Miles

1.261.24

1.22

1.18

Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008

Fuel price more than offsets efficiency and volumeFuel price more than offsets efficiency and volume

$ 5372008 Fuel Expense

))

222(4(912

Increase in PriceChange in Volume/MixFuel EfficiencyNet Non-locomotive Fuel

$ 3162007 Fuel Expense

Second QuarterFuel Analysis in Millions

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Labor and Fringe decrease 1%Labor and Fringe decrease 1%

Note: Headcount reflects the company’s transportation businesses only

$ 7332008 Labor Expense

)22

(32Wage & Benefit InflationLabor Productivity, Other

$ 7432007 Labor Expense

Second QuarterLabor Analysis in Millions

Employee Headcount

33,630

34,71834,419

33,159

Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008

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MS&O increase 9%MS&O increase 9%

Cycling the impact of casualty reserve adjustments

Proxy and related litigation costs, as well as inflation are also key drivers

MS&O ExpenseDollars in Millions

$513

$470

$43

Q2 2007 Variance Q2 2008

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Rent expenses increase 5%Rent expenses increase 5%

Payable Days Per Load

15.3

12.8 12.4

14.2

18.7

15.614.8 14.8

Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008

Total Carloads Excluding Multilevels

Note: Reflects equipment utilization in the carload network on freight cars where CSX incurs rent

$ 1122008 Rent Expense

)1

(37

InflationVolume/OtherEquipment Utilization

$ 1072007 Rent Expense

Second QuarterRents Analysis in Millions

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Other expenses increase 5%Other expenses increase 5%

Second QuarterExpense in Millions

$222 $227

$60 $68

Q2 2007 Q2 2008

Depreciation Inland Transportation

Higher capital base increased depreciation expense

Partially offset by lower rates from prior year life studies

Inland Transportation driven by transcontinental volumes and inflation

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Dividend and share repurchase update . . .Dividend and share repurchase update . . .

Quarterly Dividend

$0.07

$0.10$0.12

$0.15

$0.18

$0.22

Q42005

Q32006

Q12007

Q32007

Q22008

Q32008

Cumulative Share Repurchase in Billions

$0.6

$1.2

$2.1

$2.6$2.9

$3.1

Q12007

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

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Financial targets for full-year 2008 . . .Financial targets for full-year 2008 . . .

Earnings per share at higher end of $3.40 – $3.60 range

Guidance driven by:

— Price increases of 6%+

— Continued productivity gains

— Diverse portfolio of business

Note: Price increases of 6%+ are stated on a same store sales basis

Page 18: csx  2Q 08

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

Michael WardChairman, President andChief Executive Officer

Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .

Page 19: csx  2Q 08

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Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference CallSecond Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call