csx 2Q 08
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Transcript of csx 2Q 08
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Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference CallSecond Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call
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Forward-Looking DisclosureForward-Looking Disclosure
This information and other statements by the company contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, cost-savings, expenses, or other financial items; statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operation, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved; statements concerning proposed new products and services; and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate” and similar expressions.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements include, among others: (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic or business conditions, including those affecting the rail industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; and (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company.
Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at: http://investors.csx.com/
Executive SummaryExecutive Summary
Michael WardChairman, President andChief Executive Officer
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Second quarter overview . . .Second quarter overview . . .
$0.71 $0.71
$0.93$0.89
Reported Comparable
2007 2008
25%Increase
Second QuarterEarnings Per Share
Delivered record revenues, operating income and EPS
Safety and service levels remain strong
Revenue growth strong on diverse portfolio of business
Operating ratio improves, overcoming fuel headwind
Note: Comparable results exclude income tax benefits
Operations ReviewOperations Review
Tony IngramExecutive Vice PresidentChief Operating Officer
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Leadership, discipline and executionLeadership, discipline and execution
Safety performance remains near record levels
Service near historical best despite challenging conditions
Productivity gains helping to offset the cost of inflation
SafetySafety
ProductivityProductivity
ServiceService
LeadershipLeadership
DisciplineDiscipline
ExecutionExecution
PerformanceExcellence
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Helping lead one of the nation’s safest industriesHelping lead one of the nation’s safest industries
Rolling 12-Month Averages
FRA Personal Injury
1.321.25
1.221.16
1.22
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
FRA Train Accidents
3.143.06
2.86 2.80 2.73
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
13 WeekAverage
1.25
13 WeekAverage
2.36
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Network efficiency resilient in the second quarterNetwork efficiency resilient in the second quarter
Rolling 12-Month Averages
Velocity (mph)
20.120.4
20.8 20.9 20.9
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
13 WeekAverage20.0 mph
Dwell Time (hours)
24.323.7
23.222.8 22.7
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
13 WeekAverage23.3 hrs
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On-time performance declinesOn-time performance declines
Rolling 12-Month Averages
On-Time Originations
77%78%
79%81%
79%
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
On-Time Arrivals
66%69%
70% 72% 71%
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
13 WeekAverage
75%
13 WeekAverage
65%
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Customer satisfaction scores remain strongCustomer satisfaction scores remain strong
Customer SatisfactionOverall Score
6.3 6.47.1 6.9
Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008
CSX Truck Other Railroads
CSX’s overall rating remains near historical high
Satisfaction continues to lead the peer group average
Rails have significantly closed the gap with trucks
Note: Results based on an independent third-party study of CSX customers
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On track to deliver targeted productivity gainsOn track to deliver targeted productivity gains
Continued focus on service and efficiency through design
Process improvement teams driving long-term savings
Total Service Integration takes service to next level
2008-2010Productivity Plan
Targeting over $400 million of productivity benefits through 2010
Network40%
Locomotive15%
Car & Terminal15%
Fuel Efficiency30%
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Operations wrap-up . . .Operations wrap-up . . .
Focused on regaining momentum
Striving for industry leadership in safety and service
Customer satisfaction continues to lead peers
Productivity initiatives delivering value
Sales and Marketing ReviewSales and Marketing Review
Clarence GoodenExecutive Vice PresidentSales and Marketing
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Revenues increased 15% to $2.9 billionRevenues increased 15% to $2.9 billion
Second QuarterRevenue in Millions
$2,530
$2,907$377
2007 Growth 2008
Record quarterly revenues
Yield management continues to offset softer volumes
Consistent service driving strong revenue growth
Secular strength reflected in six years of revenue growth
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Revenue growth is strong across most marketsRevenue growth is strong across most markets
Second QuarterYear-Over-Year Revenue Growth
(8%)
(1%)
4%
12%
15%
15%
23%
29%
29%
2%
Automotive
Forest Products
Food & Consumer
Emerging Markets
Intermodal
Chemicals
Metals
Phosphates & Fertilizers
Agricultural Products
Coal
Revenues impacted by the continued softness in
the housing and automotivesectors of the economy
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Price and fuel cost recovery drive RPU growthPrice and fuel cost recovery drive RPU growth
Year-Over-Year Change
6.4%6.8%6.7%6.5%6.5%7.1%
8.1%6.9%
8.0%10.5%
18.3%
14.4%
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008
Price Increase on 'Same Store Sales' Total Revenue per Unit
Note: ‘Same Store Sales’ price increases exclude impacts from fuel and mix
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Merchandise revenue increases 13%Merchandise revenue increases 13%
Second Quarter2008 versus 2007
13%
(4%)
17%
Revenue
Volume
RPU
Yield management continues to offset softer volumes
Continued weakness in housing related markets
Strength in agriculture, chemicals, metals & fertilizer
2007 Change 2008
RPU $ 1,804 $ 314 $ 2,118
Volume(thousands)
703 (27) 676
Revenue(millions)
$ 1,268 $ 164 $ 1,432
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Coal revenue increases 29%Coal revenue increases 29%
Second Quarter2008 versus 2007
29%
26%
2%
Revenue
Volume
RPU
Export strength offsets decline in utility market
Overall pricing environment remains favorable
Utility inventories are now below prior year levels
2007 Change 2008
RPU $ 1,369 $ 358 $ 1,727
Volume(thousands)
466 11 477
Revenue(millions)
$ 638 $ 186 $ 824
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Automotive revenue declines 8%Automotive revenue declines 8%
Softer economy and tight credit impacting auto sales
Fuel prices causing switch from SUV’s to compacts
Higher yields reflect stronger pricing and fuel recovery
2007 Change 2008
RPU $ 1,874 $ 354 $ 2,228
Volume(thousands)
119 (27) 92
Revenue(millions)
$ 223 ($ 18) $ 205
Second Quarter2008 versus 2007
(8%)
(23%)
19%
Revenue
Volume
RPU
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Intermodal revenue increases 12%Intermodal revenue increases 12%
Second Quarter2008 versus 2007
12%
(2%)
14%
Revenue
Volume
RPU
Record quarterly revenue
RPU higher on fuel recovery and favorable traffic mix
Domestic strength partially offsets international softness
2007 Change 2008
RPU $ 636 $ 90 $ 726
Volume(thousands)
539 (9) 530
Revenue(millions)
$ 343 $ 42 $ 385
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Intermodal reports record second quarter profitIntermodal reports record second quarter profit
Bottom line focus continuesto drive improving results
Revenue growth overcomes softer volume environment
Productivity partially offsets rising fuel costs
Intermodal Operating Income in Millions
$55
$63
$76$71
Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008
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Third quarter revenue outlook is positiveThird quarter revenue outlook is positive
Third Quarter Outlook Percent of Revenue
AutomotiveAutomotive
Forest ProductsForest ProductsUnfavorableUnfavorable
Emerging Markets
Food & ConsumerNeutral
Agricultural ProductsAgricultural Products
ChemicalsChemicals
Coal, Coke & Iron OreCoal, Coke & Iron Ore
IntermodalIntermodal
MetalsMetals
Phosphate & FertilizerPhosphate & Fertilizer
FavorableFavorable
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable
75%
10%
15%
Financial ResultsFinancial Results
Oscar MunozExecutive Vice PresidentChief Financial Officer
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Double-digit growth in operating income and EPSDouble-digit growth in operating income and EPS
Variance20072008Dollars in millions, except EPS
$ 105$ 612$ 717Operating Income
43.8
$ 0.22
458.9
$ 0.71
415.1
$ 0.93
Fully Diluted Shares in Millions
Earnings Per Share
$ 61$ 324$ 385Net Income
))
3(32(15
))
3(101(190
))
6(133(205
Other Income (net)Interest ExpenseIncome Taxes
)$ 377
(272$ 2,530
1,918$ 2,907
2,190RevenueExpense
Second Quarter Results
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Core earning power improves 20%Core earning power improves 20%
Operating Income in Millions
$717
$612
$124
($19)
Q2 2007 YOY ReserveAdjustments
EarningsMomentum
Q2 2008
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Core operating ratio improves 320 basis pointsCore operating ratio improves 320 basis points
Operating Ratio Drivers
75.3%75.8%
(3.2%)2.0%
0.7%
Q2 2007 YOY ReserveAdjustments
FuelHeadwind
CoreImprovement
Q2 2008
Note: Fuel headwind reflects the revenue and expense impact from a $222 million year-over-year increase in fuel prices
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Expenses up 14% overall; up 3% excluding fuelExpenses up 14% overall; up 3% excluding fuel
Second Quarter Operating ExpensesYear-Over-Year Change
14%
13%
2%
5%
70%
9%
(1%)
Total Expenses
Inland Transportation
Depreciation
Equipment Rent
Fuel
Material, Supplies, and Other
Labor and Fringe ($ 10)
8
43
221
5
5
$ 272
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Gallons Per ThousandGross Ton Miles
1.261.24
1.22
1.18
Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008
Fuel price more than offsets efficiency and volumeFuel price more than offsets efficiency and volume
$ 5372008 Fuel Expense
))
222(4(912
Increase in PriceChange in Volume/MixFuel EfficiencyNet Non-locomotive Fuel
$ 3162007 Fuel Expense
Second QuarterFuel Analysis in Millions
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Labor and Fringe decrease 1%Labor and Fringe decrease 1%
Note: Headcount reflects the company’s transportation businesses only
$ 7332008 Labor Expense
)22
(32Wage & Benefit InflationLabor Productivity, Other
$ 7432007 Labor Expense
Second QuarterLabor Analysis in Millions
Employee Headcount
33,630
34,71834,419
33,159
Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008
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MS&O increase 9%MS&O increase 9%
Cycling the impact of casualty reserve adjustments
Proxy and related litigation costs, as well as inflation are also key drivers
MS&O ExpenseDollars in Millions
$513
$470
$43
Q2 2007 Variance Q2 2008
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Rent expenses increase 5%Rent expenses increase 5%
Payable Days Per Load
15.3
12.8 12.4
14.2
18.7
15.614.8 14.8
Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008
Total Carloads Excluding Multilevels
Note: Reflects equipment utilization in the carload network on freight cars where CSX incurs rent
$ 1122008 Rent Expense
)1
(37
InflationVolume/OtherEquipment Utilization
$ 1072007 Rent Expense
Second QuarterRents Analysis in Millions
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Other expenses increase 5%Other expenses increase 5%
Second QuarterExpense in Millions
$222 $227
$60 $68
Q2 2007 Q2 2008
Depreciation Inland Transportation
Higher capital base increased depreciation expense
Partially offset by lower rates from prior year life studies
Inland Transportation driven by transcontinental volumes and inflation
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Dividend and share repurchase update . . .Dividend and share repurchase update . . .
Quarterly Dividend
$0.07
$0.10$0.12
$0.15
$0.18
$0.22
Q42005
Q32006
Q12007
Q32007
Q22008
Q32008
Cumulative Share Repurchase in Billions
$0.6
$1.2
$2.1
$2.6$2.9
$3.1
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
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Financial targets for full-year 2008 . . .Financial targets for full-year 2008 . . .
Earnings per share at higher end of $3.40 – $3.60 range
Guidance driven by:
— Price increases of 6%+
— Continued productivity gains
— Diverse portfolio of business
Note: Price increases of 6%+ are stated on a same store sales basis
Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
Michael WardChairman, President andChief Executive Officer
Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .
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Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference CallSecond Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call