Crustal response to the changing climate and anthropogenic ...
Transcript of Crustal response to the changing climate and anthropogenic ...
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Crustal response to the changing climate and anthropogenic
activity
Shimon Wdowinski, Tim Dixon, Falk Amelung, Yan Jiang, Qian Yang,
Batuan Osmanoglu, Enrique Cabral, Estelle Chaussard
University of Miami
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Presentation Content • Crustal deformation • Space Geodesy
• GPS • InSAR • GRACE
• Response to melting icecaps - Greenland • Accelerated uplift • Seasonal variations
• Response to groundwater withdrawal • Venice • Mexico • Others – New Orleans, Indonesia
• Summary & acknowledgements
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Plate motion and crustal deformation
Tectonic plate motion
Global Strain-rate map (Kreemer, 2004)
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Non-tectonic crustal deformation
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
(Sella et al., 2007)
New Orleans subsidence
(Dixon et al., 2004)
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Space geodetic measurements
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• The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a satellite-based navigation system.
• GPS was originally intended for military applications, but in the 1980s, the government made the system available for civilian use.
• GPS works in any weather conditions, anywhere in the world, 24 hours a day. There are no subscription fees or setup charges to use GPS
• Some civilian uses: – Navigation on land, sea, air
and space – Geophysics research – Guidance systems – Geodetic network densification – Hydrographic surveys
Global Positioning System - GPS
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Interferometric SAR - InSAR
Two or more data acquisition of the same area from nearby location (< 1000 m)
Changes in surface location result in detectable phase changes
Fringes – 1 cycle (2π) = ½ λ
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InSAR time series
• Subset of reliable scatterers • InSAR time series • Low pass filter for removing atmospheric noise
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Absolute (3D) displacements Continuous measurements Almost no artifact Horizontal resolution - 1mm Vertical resolution - ~ 3mm Restricted to receiver sites Requires stable monuments
Line of sight displacements Periodic measurements Orbital & atmospheric artifacts Horizontal resolution - 15mm Vertical resolution - 2mm Complete spatial coverage Requires no monuments
GPS InSAR
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• Observational goals: Measure Earth’s time-variable gravity field
• Science goals: Study surface mass redistribution impacted by climate, geodynamic processes, and humans
• Launched March 17, 2002 • Two co-orbiting vehicles, nominal
210-km separation • 5-yr lifetime extended multiple times • 1.6-hr, near-polar orbit, • Altitude steadily decaying (right)
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
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Crustal response to the changing climate
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Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
Gobal mean temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere Snow cover
IPCC report (2007)
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Arctic ice loss
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Greenland ice loss
Greenland melting contributed ~ 0.2 - 0.4 mm/yr of sea level rise for period 1990-2000, may increase in future. Greenland vs Antarctica: Greenland is not at pole, impacted by Gulf Stream (may melt faster)
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Sea Level Rise
• Global average ~1.8 mm/yr from 1900-2000 • Composed of ~ 0.3- 0.5 mm/yr from mountain
ice, ~0.70 - 1.0 mm/yr from thermal expansion
• Relatively small contribution from Greenland (<0.5 mm/yr)
• Current rate: – Roughly double? – Difficult to measure directly (large decadal
fluctuations) – Direct measurement of melt contribution from
Greenland, Antarctica is important
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Greenland ice loss
Satellite monitoring: GRACE, Lidar, SAR/mass balance
In principle, could also use isostasy (GPS)
Problem: the past haunts us (visco-elastic effects: peripheral bulge from LGM; LIA)
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Importance of Glacial Isotatic Adjustment (GIA)
• Both GRACE and Altimetry depend on a model for GIA
• GIA models depend on: – Mantle viscosity structure (poorly known) – Ice melting history (very poorly known)
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Mass Accumulation/Loss Estimates
• Does not depend on GIA • Requires estimation of interior snow
accumulation, peripheral loss by calving and melting
• Done for each drainage basin, then summed
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Major Drainage Basins
Rignot et al
2008
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Mass Accumulation/Loss
• Subtract two large numbers, each with uncertainties, to obtain a small number
• Suggests accumulation rate ~ constant, but increasing loss at margins
• Consistent with GRACE results
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GRACE 2003-2008
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GPS as a Tool for Monitoring Greenland
• Restricted to rocky coast (but that is where loss is concentrated)
• MAL studies indicate interior in approximate mass balance (outflow to edges balanced by new snow)
• Need to deal with GIA • Most GIA models predict that Greenland is
subsiding due to peripheral bulge collapse from Laurentide glaciation
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“Correcting” for GIA
• GIA models are “noise source” if we want to look at present-day melting
• Focus on perturbations to velocity field (accelerations) rather than velocity field itself
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GPS time series Vertical component
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The series account for equipment change, annual variation, and possible rate changes; use 7 parameter model (red line). All Greenland sites show acceleration
GPS Position Time Series
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Reference Frame Effects
• Previous studies have assumed that deviations from linear trend reflect long term drift of GPS reference frame
• Evaluate via regional comparisons (Fennoscandia, Canada)
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Zero Mean
01234567
-1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6
Num
ber
Acceleration (mm/yr2)
Canada,Fennoscandia,Other
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6
of S
ites
Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard
Acceleration
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Implications of Accelerating Uplift
• Accelerating uplift implies accelerating ice loss in regions with multi-year land ice
• Unlikely to be reference frame effect (not observed in Fennoscandia or northern Canada
• Time scale implies mainly elastic response to mass unloading
• Evidence from phase of annual term supports elastic response
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MODIS Summer 2006 Western Greenland
0 100 km
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Modified 2-D Model: Finite Width Line Load
€
U ≅3.3(1− v)πG
N0[ ]
Jaeger et al., 2007
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Model results
• Applicable to western and southeastern Greenland, where melting is focused in narrow coastal band
• 1 mm/yr of increased uplift =>load change of ~5*107 N/m2
• For 1700 km coastal strip in W Greenland, implies acceleration ~8 GT/yr2
• Corresponding SE Greenland value ~12 GT/yr2
• ~ agreement with GRACE result
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June 2001
June 2002
June 2003
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GNET: will provide basin-by- basin view of ice health
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Seasonal signal analysis
GPS time series Seasonal parameter estimation
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Seasonal signal analysis
Summer uplift 2008-2010 Uplift
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Ocean currents, coastal uplift, and ice mass balance
Red arrows indicate the mean path of the warm North Atlantic Current (NAC); orange arrows indicate Irminger Current (IC), white arrows indicate East Greenland Current (EGC), West Greenland Current (WGC) and Labrador Current (LC).
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Conclusions
• Perturbations to the vertical velocity field measured by GPS are sensitive to recent land ice melting
• Uplift of Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard is accelerating
• A simple elastic model for coastal melting in Greenland gives ice loss is approximate agreement with other techniques
• Seasonal analysis of GPS time series indicates that the uplift in 2010 was unusual high for southern Greenland
• The unusual 2010 conditions were caused by the warm Irminger water
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Crustal response to Anthropogenic activities
Deformation occurs due to 1) Changes in hydrological loads
• Surface water • Ground water
2) Sediment compaction
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Dead Sea water level drop
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The lowest place on Earth is rising (Nof et al., 2012)
Independent GPS measurements
DRAG JSLM
TELA
Model LOS
DRAG - 2.8+-0.5 mm/yr
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Grace - results
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Urban subsidence
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Venice subsidence
• The city is located within the Venice Lagoon.
• It is located on an archipelago of 128 small islands
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Alta Aqua
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Venice Lagoon (Bock et al., 2012)
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New Orleans Flooding & Subsidence
Dixon et al. (2006)
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St. Bernards Parish: PS displacement time series in LOS
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Mexico City
• Mexico City is built on lake deposits • It subsides at very high rate, up to 25 cm/yr • The subsidence causes structural damage in many buildings and
to the infrastructure
Osmanoglu et al. (2011)
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Mexico City
Differential subsidence in Mexico City causes structural damage to building and infrastructure
Osmanoglu et al. (2011)
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Mexico City
Differential subsidence at the building scale (main Cathedral)
Osmanoglu et al. (2011)
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Morelia (Mexico)
Subsidence is controlled by geological fault
Cigna et al. (2011)
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A new NASA project
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ALOS data processing (Estelle)
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Conclusions
• InSAR, GPS and GRACE are very powerful techniques for monitoring non-tectonic crustal movements
• The observed deformation occurs in response to climatic or anthropogenic changes in hydrological load or sediment compaction
• Our multi-year Greenland study show a noticeable ice melt acceleration since the mid-1990’s.
• Our seasonal analysis of the Greenland GPS data indicates unusual high uplift in 2010, most likely due to the influence of the warm Irminger current.
• Land subsidence due groundwater extraction occurs in many urban areas and can cause significant structural damage to buildings and infrastructure.
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SUBSIDENCE & DEFORMATION FORUM
Where are the places of subsidence around Java?
Jakarta area Bandung area Semarang area LUSI area
Chaussard et. al 2012 University of Miami
Land Subsidence around Java Island
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SUBSIDENCE & DEFORMATION FORUM
In period of 1974-2010 a significant subsidence happened in Jakarta area. Four meter recorded in the north of Jakarta, two meter in west area, and one and a half in the east. Seventy cm recorded for central part while 25 cm for southern area
-4,1 meter
-1,4 meter -2,1 meter
-0,7 meter
-0.25 meter
-4,1 meter -2,1 meter
-1,4 meter -0,7 meter
-0.25 meter
Land Subsidence around Jakarta area
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Jakarta Coastal Defense Strategy (JCDS) Study Heri Andreas 2011
Consequences of Jakarta subsidence
Rob in Priok Harbor
Rob in Rukindo Priok
Rob in Pluit Rob in Tongkol Ps Ikan
Rob in PLTGU Priok
Rob in Muara Baru
Rob in Pluit
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Rob in Muara Baru
Rob in Kamal Muara
Rob in G. Sahari
Rob in G.Sahari
Rob in P. Jayakarta
Rob in P.Jayakarta
“ROB” in northern Part of Jakarta
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Rob in Kel Ancol
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