Cross-State Air Pollution Rule Presentation to the American Public Power Association October 12,...
Embed Size (px)
Transcript of Cross-State Air Pollution Rule Presentation to the American Public Power Association October 12,...
Cross-State Air Pollution RulePresentation to the American Public Power Association
October 12, 2011Hunton & Williams LLPWashington, D.C.
AgendaTransition from the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) to the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Overview and key elements of CSAPRPossibilities for challenging CSAPRDiscussion of pending (i) petitions for administrative reconsideration, (ii) petitions for judicial review, and (iii) motions for judicial stay of CSAPR
Transition from CAIR to CSAPRCSAPR was published in the Federal Register on August 8, 2011, and goes into effect on October 7, 2011. The first compliance periods begin January 1, 2012 (SO2 and Annual NOx), and May 1, 2012 (Ozone-season NOx).The first compliance (true-up) dates will be March 1, 2013 (SO2 and Annual NOx), and December 1, 2012 (Ozone-season NOx).
Transition from CAIR to CSAPREGUs regulated under CAIR will be required to comply with the 2011 compliance periods already underway.After these compliance periods are complete, CAIR will no longer be in effect.CAIR allowances (both Title IV SO2 allowances and CAIR annual and ozone-season NOx allowances) will not be accepted for compliance with CSAPR.
Supplemental ProposalEPA published a supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking in the Federal Register on July 11, 2011. Proposes regulation of EGUs in 6 additional states under CSAPR for significant contribution to downwind nonattainment or interference with maintenance of the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin.Proposed additions are based on an updated analysis using new modeling and EPAs identification of two ozone maintenance receptors not identified in modeling for the proposal, in Allegan County, MI, and Harford County, MD.EPA plans to finalize the supplemental proposal by November 1, 2011, and to require these 6 states to comply with CSAPR beginning in the first control period for the ozone-season NOx program, beginning May 1, 2012.
Asserted Statutory Basis for CSAPRCAA 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I):Each states plan for attaining the NAAQS must contain adequate provisions . . . prohibiting . . . any source or other type of emissions activity within the State from emitting any air pollutant in amounts which will . . . contribute significantly to nonattainment in, or interfere with maintenance by, any other State with respect to any [NAAQS].
Pollutants RegulatedRegulates SO2 and annual NOx emissions by states deemed to contribute significantly to nonattainment or to interfere with maintenance of the PM2.5 NAAQSAnnual PM2.5 NAAQS 18 states24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS 21 statesRegulates NOx emissions (during May 1 September 30 ozone season) by states deemed to contribute significantly to nonattainment or interference with maintenance of the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS20 states
Compliance DatesInterim compliance deadlines in 2012January 1, 2012 for SO2 and Annual NOx May 1, 2012 for Ozone-season NOxSecond-phase compliance deadlines in 2014January 1, 2014 for SO2 and Annual NOx May 1, 2014 for Ozone-season NOxSeparate state budgets for:2012 and 20132014 and future years
EPA map showing states covered by CSAPR and the supplemental proposal:
EPA map showing states that would have been covered under EPAs Proposed Transport Rule:
EPA map showing states covered by CAIR:
Overview of ModelingEPA developed emission inventories by state and sector in the modeling region based on four air quality scenarios:2005 base year based on 2005 National Emission Inventory version 22012 base case modeled using version 4.10_FTransport of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) Reflects state rules and consent decrees through December 1, 2010 (according to EPA)Assumes CAIR is not in effect2014 base case modeled using IPM2014 control (or remedy) case predicts results of CSAPR
Overview of ModelingProcessed emission inventories through Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) Modeling System version 2.6 for input to the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) version 5.30, which EPA used for air quality modeling 2005 meteorology2003-2007 ambient data
Methodology Used in CSAPRDetermination of Significant Contribution to Nonattainment and Interference with MaintenanceProjection of (modeled) future nonattainment and maintenance problems at receptors in downwind states Assessment of contributions to downwind nonattainment and maintenance problems by upwind states and determination of upwind state/downwind state linkagesQuantification of emissions that significantly contribute to nonattainment or interference with maintenanceDevelopment of State Budgets and Variability LimitsAllocation of Emission Allowances to Units; EnforcementThis general methodology is designed to create framework for future interstate-transport rules (e.g., responding to future NAAQS)
Determination of Significant ContributionUsed air quality modeling to:identify downwind areas projected to be in nonattainment or to have maintenance problems in 2012, andquantify projected impacts of emissions from each upwind state on those areasIdentified maximum cost thresholds for emission reductions based on cost curves to quantify emissions that significantly contribute to nonattainment or interference with maintenance
Projection of Downwind Nonattainment and Maintenance ProblemsUsed ratio of future year model predictions (2012 base case) to base year model predictions (2005 base year) to adjust monitored ambient air quality data up or down (relative response factors).Monitored data obtained from EPAs Air Quality SystemProcess varied somewhat by NAAQS (e.g., used speciated data for PM2.5)
Projection of Downwind Nonattainment and Maintenance ProblemsGenerally, EPA used monitored ambient air quality data from a 2003-2007 base period to calculate design values for each of the three 3-year periods in the base period (2003-05; 2004-06; 2005-07) and used these design values to calculate future year (2012) design values using air quality modeling. The average of the three future year design values was used to project nonattainment.The highest of the three future year design values was used to project interference with maintenance.
Assessment of Contributions by Upwind StatesIdentified 1% of each NAAQS as the threshold for determining which impacts were significant: Annual PM2.5 0.15 g/m324-Hour PM2.5 0.35 g/m38-Hour ozone 0.8 ppbUsed CAMx photochemical source apportionment modeling to identify the impact of emissions from specific upwind states on projected downwind nonattainment and maintenance receptors for PM2.5 and ozone.
Assessment of Contributions by Upwind StatesEvaluated projected contributions to nonattainment and maintenance for each upwind state to determine whether that states maximum contribution exceeds the 1% threshold.Maximum contribution to nonattainment was calculated based on the single largest contribution to a future year downwind nonattainment receptor. Maximum contribution to maintenance was calculated based on the single largest contribution to a future year downwind maintenance receptor.
EPA map showing projected linkages between states:
Quantification ofSignificant ContributionFour-step analysis to quantify emissions contributing to nonattainment or interference with maintenance:Identification of upwind emission reductions available in each state at ascending cost-per-ton levelsAssessment of the impact of those upwind reductions on downwind air qualitySelection of appropriate cost thresholds Development of state budgets based on emission reductions available at selected cost thresholds
Cost Thresholds SelectedEmission Reduction for Annual and 24-Hr PM2.5:SO2 for Group 1 and Group 2 states in 2012: $500/ton SO2 for Group 1 states in 2014: $2,300/tonSO2 for Group 2 states in 2014 remains at $500/ton.Annual NOx: $500/ton Emission Reduction for 8-Hour Ozone:Ozone-season NOx: $500/ton
EPA map showing Group 1 and Group 2 states:
Development of State BudgetsA states emissions budget is the quantity of emissions that remains after elimination of significant contribution to nonattainment and interference with maintenance (or, with respect to ozone for certain states, measurable progress) but before accounting for variability.EPA developed state budgets using projected emissions in 2012 and 2014.Each state has a separate budget for each pollutant regulated in that state.
Amendments to Proposed State Budgets: SO2 Group 1 States
Amendments to Proposed State Budgets: SO2 Group 2 States
Amendments to Proposed State Budgets:Annual NOx
Amendments to Proposed State Budgets: Ozone-Season NOx* For Kansas, Michigan, and Oklahoma, the Final 2012 and Final 2014 bars represent the 2012 and 2014 budgets set forth in the supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking published in the Federal Register on July 11, 2011.
Variability LimitsAccording to EPA, the purpose of including variability limits is to provide a limited amount of flexibility to accommodate the inherent variability in EGU operation and the resulting variability in baseline emissions from year to year. State budget + Variability Limit = Assurance LevelCSAPR includes uniform one-year variability limits for each state set as a percentage of the applicable state budget.Percentages are based on the highest measured historic variability of annual heat input of any state covered by the rule between 2000 and 2010
Variability LimitsVariability Limits:SO2 and Annual NOx: 18% of the state budgetBased on historic variability of