Critical Thinking - The Disposition Toward Critical Thinking
Critical Thinking about Statistics
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Transcript of Critical Thinking about Statistics
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Mark Twain
(1835~1910)
There are three kinds of lies.
1. Lies
2. Damned lies
3.Statistics
There are three kinds of lies.
1. Lies
2. Damned lies
3.Statistics
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Understand,
“No statistic is perfect.”
People use statistics to persuade us.
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How Statistics Are Misused
•Graph
•Bad samples
•Correlation vs. Causality
•Missing data/Error in data
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roller-coaster club?
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inactive club?
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semestervacation
more stable?It can be. But, only one year
sample.
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Correlation and Causality
•Arizona is the highest ranked state in respiratory disease death rate.
Estimation: It is because of air pollution in Arizona.
Fact: Many respiratory patients have immigrated to Arizona, which is one of the cleanest states.
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About Statistics
naive
critical
cynical
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Statistics?
•Who
•Why
•Where
•When
•What
•How
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Think critically about
statistics.
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Correlation does not imply causality.
•The more firemen fighting a fire, the bigger the fire is observed to be.
Therefore firemen cause an increase in the size of a fire. (x)
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Average is not sufficient
•Average Salary
- Company A: $200,000 (100 employees)
- Company B: $150,000 (100 employees)
CEO 99 others
A$10.1 million
$100,000
B$2.13 million
$130,000
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•As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases sharply.
Therefore, ice cream consumption causes drowning. (x)
Correlation does not imply causality.
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eyemout
hnose
chin
nose
nose
old woman
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eyebrow
mouth
nose
chin
nose
nose
young girl
ear