Life is a beach.

Critical Thinking about Sciencein The Media

Let’s Academicize!

Calm Islands of Truth Seeking in Stormy Seas with Oceans of

EmotionSchools - Teach true statements Learn skills to find true statements Research to find new true statements

WHAT IS KNOWLEDGE? KNOWLEDGE = Justified True Belief

(at 03:00) ”What was it all for?” ”Knowledge” ”Also, to show what was possible” http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Science/Rosetta/Rosetta_the_ambition_to_turn_science_fiction_into_science_fact

Politics is NOT Science

Politicians make policies on consensus versus Science checks the evidence and logic of arguments

There IS a difference

Majority Wins Evidence & Logic Valued

I’m Right!

I’m Right!

I’m Right!

-----------------------------

So, VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! for ME! ME! MEEEEEE!

FOR:

Scientific Evidence 1?

Scientific Evidence 2?

-----------------------------

Logical Conclusion 1?

AGAINST:

Scientific Evidence 3?

Scientific Evidence 4?

-----------------------------

Logical Conclusion 2?

Business PPPs are NOT Scientific Presentations

information poor to information rich

Businesses sell products to make money versus Science checks the evidence and logic of arguments

There IS a difference

http://www.presentationsteknik.com/varldens-basta-powerpoint-2/

Death by Business PPPs

Life by Science PPPs

I’m Right!

I’m Right!

I’m Right!

-----------------------------

So, BUY! BUY! BUY!

FOR:

Scientific Evidence 1?

Scientific Evidence 2?

-----------------------------

Logical Conclusion 1?

AGAINST:

Scientific Evidence 3?

Scientific Evidence 4?

-----------------------------

Logical Conclusion 2?

Information Rich ”Beautiful Evidence” in Science PPPs

http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/books_behttp://old.intelligencesquared.com/events/Edward-Tufte-Beautiful-Evidence

http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0001yB

• Like a science paper or newspaper

• high information content

• Texts, graphs, images, data - mixed together

• for & against arguments on same slide

• NO bullit points / but whole sentences

• Oops! ;-)

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/10/dr-judith-lean-lecture-at-agu/

Today’s Scientific Presentations – Information Rich

http://periodictable.com/Elements/Radioactive/

Critical ThinkingIs It True?

( Being Skeptical ... then using ... “The Method” )

Don’t be a sponge .... pan for the gold nuggets!

Critical Thinking: Why bother?

Would you rather be a mental puppet of who ever you happen to encounter?OR

Have a method to decide which opinions to believe or reject!

Critical Thinking

1. Skeptical – ”Is it true?”

2. Calculate – Check the facts ... AND ... check the argument

Critical ThinkingIs It True?

(Being Skeptical ...then using...“The Method”)

Intention

Premises

Conclusion

XXXXX XXXXxxx xxx xx x x xx x x xxxx xxx xxxx. xxxxx xxxx x xx x xx xxxxx x x xxx xx xxxx xxx xxxxx xxxxx x xxx xx xx xx. xxx x xx x xxx x xx xx xxxxxxxx xxx xxx xxx x xxxx . xxxxx xx xxxx xxx xx x x xx x x xxxx xxx. xxxx xxxxx xxxx x xx x xx xxxxx x x xxx xx. xxxx xxx xxxxx xxxxx x xxx xx xx xx. xxx x xx x xxx x xx xx xxxxxxxx xxx xxx xxx x xxxx xxxxx xx xx.

Critical thinking about Media Science news stories

Critical Thinking Question:

Are the premises of science news stories true?

If a cat has all white fur then it is a white cat.

The cat has all black fur.

-------------------------------------------------------

Therefore it is a white cat.

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” – attributed to John Maynard Keynes (economist)

A common human argument

check the facts not the feelings

check the evidence not the emotions

What we often do with new facts we don’t like.

A rational mind changes its conclusions when new facts and arguments arise.

”... Students should develop crtitcal thoughts regarding their own results, other’s arguments and different information sources ... critical of information and arguments which students meet in various sources and discussions to do with science in society with connections to biology/chemistry/physics...” - Extract form the Swedish Primary School curriculum in science (2011).

Critical Thinking for schools

Critical Thinking: more basics

Deductive arguments

P1 All men are mortal.P2 Socrates is a man.____C Socrates is mortal.

Inductive arguments

P1 If Socrates is a man, then he is most likely mortal.P2 Socrates is a man._________C Socrates is probably mortal

Plausible arguments

P1 Ms A is a genuine expert about man's mortality.P2 Ms A proposes that Socrates is mortal.P3 Socrates is a man.P4 That ”Socrates is mortal” is consistent with what other experts propose. P5 “Socrates is mortal” is consistent with the available evidence.________C ”Socrates is mortal” can be accepted as a plausible argument.

Critical Thinking What is a “good” argument?

Socrates 469 BC – 399 BC Athena – Goddess of Wisdom

A “good” argument has all true premises.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

Avoid these … … like the Plague!

Critical Thinking: argumental fallacies

http://onegoodmove.org/fallacy/toc.htm http://www.fallacyfiles.org/whatarff.html

Critical Thinking: The 4 basic logical “forms” of an argument

Critical Thinking for beginners

The Law of Similarity : appearance = reality

If it looks like a lion, it is a lion...Run! ...or you will be lunch!

If we watch a hurricane on TV ... worry about storms! If read about a flood in NY ... the seas are rising!

Why We Worry (Lion-

Worriers survived and reproduced)

Human ”GroupThink” is an Evolutionary Stable Strategy (stay in the group, run with the herd ... and you

survive and reproduce)

Are we are running with the herd ... again ... ...& stampeding over the cliff of missing scientific

evidence?

The Carta Marina by Olaus Magnus (1490-1557) is the earliest detailed map of the Nordic countries.

”Here there be Dragons” – when emotion replaces evidence in Science

The Conjuror, by Hieronymus Bosch, painted 1475-1480 to convey concern for human gullibility.”Bosch seems to admonish his viewers that the world is full of deceivers we should not trust

yet who succeed in taking advantage of us with all kinds of tricks.”http://suite101.com/article/meaning_in_the_conjurers-a162088

Watch the peas under the Media Science shell game

History of popular folly (1841) by Scottish journalist Charles MacKay, he proposed that crowds of people often behave irrationally

Scares in History

economic bubbles (tulip mania), alchemy, crusades, witch-hunts, prophecies, fortune-telling, magnetisers (influence of imagination in curing disease), haunted houses, popular follies of great cities etc.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” – Charles McKay (1841)

Has all this happened many times before?

http://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Illustrated-ebook/dp/B003I84MBO/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1374246351&sr=1-1#reader_B003I84MBO

Humans make more mistakes

Prohibition – 1920sEugenics – 1910s Lysenkoism – Russia1950s

The Great Tulip Bulb Mania– Holland 1637

The South Sea Bubble– England 1720

The Railway Stocks Bubble– USA 1893

BlockersSkeptical ScientistsSkeptical Journalists

PushersActivist ScientistsBig BusinessGreen GroupsThe MediaPoliticians

NEW SCARE

Defining parts of a Scare* A new type of threat.* Something anyone might be exposed to.* A large undefined uncertainty of effects.* Society's response is out of all proportion to the reality of the threat.

Common stages of a Scare* Appearance of widely accepted scientific evidence* Obsessive media coverage* Massive response from politicians.* New laws and restrictions enacted.* Social damage - fear/hysteria//panic* Economic damage - $M/$B/$T spent* Scientific evidence & reasoning then accepted as fundamentally flawed.* Fear subsides and money all wasted.* New & different scare begins again.

”... interests behind behind views from different sources...”

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Scared-Death-Global-Warming-Costing/dp/0826486142

http://www.npr.org/blogs/codeswitch/2013/08/26/215761377/a-history-of-snake-oil-salesmen

WHY? -A BIT OF HISTORY Snake Oil Salesmen still alive &

well; bigger & ”better” 100 years later in the 21st Century

So ... check the evidence & check the arguments when the health-energy-environment-technology snake oil salesmen & snake oil saleswomen visit your neighbourhood ... today.

Or, are these ”salespersons” just … caring & misinformed … or ”morally superior” … or … GroupThinkers or …???

”Take a knee”: Natural dangers are real but fear about the world is a choice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhVKG4QCQYg

The Scientific Method

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/21/the-scientific-method-and-climate-science/

http://skepticalswedishscientists.wordpress.com/scientific-method/

Deeper into the Scientific Method What is a ”good” hypothesis? – The Criteria of

Adequacy

http://www.amazon.com/How-Think-About-Weird-Things/dp/0073386626/ref=la_B001ILHGPC_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1390044470&sr=1-4

Opposing viewpoints - seek them out! Prepare to be unpopular in following the thin red line of truth

Ask probing questions Real Science doesn’t follow fashionable trends or popularity ...

it follows the scientific method and logical arguments.

http://www.debunkosaurus.com/debunkosaurus/index.php/Debunked_%26_Exposed

Opposing viewpoints - seek

them out! Prepare to be unpopular in following the

thin red line of truth

Ask probing questions Real Science doesn’t follow fashionable

trends or popularity ... it follows the scientific

method and logical arguments.

Risks That Most People Are Comfortable With

Floods Lightning

Heat

Earthquakes

Cold

Storms

The Paling Risk Perspective

Risks around 1 in a million to 1 in 10,000 that have odds in this green "Home Base Zone" should certainly not be ignored but should not be singled out for alarmist media headlines.

http://www.riskcomm.com/

.

Relative Risks & Risk Consequences human made risks vs other accepted daily natural risks

Risks of dying next yearForces of Nature

/http://www.riskcomm.com/visualaids/riskscale/example.php

Chemical Toxicity: for health & environment

http://www.riskometer.org/pages/riskometerExposures.html

Checking up on the Relative Risks with Chemicals

R = P x C (Risk) (Probability) (Consequences / $ )

The Black PlagueEurope, 1350

Meteorite StrikeBird Poop Injuries

Wet-by-Rain Injuries

Natural Frequencies

25 in 100

Tally marks

30 000 BC

Fractions

¼

Pythagoras

550BC

ConditionalProbabilities

0.25

Pascal & Fermat

1654

Percentages

25%

Metric system

1800s

Risk Probabilities

Try to find out risks in natural frequencies, eg. 2 in 1000, 5 in 10 000 etc.

Making our world an even better place – Is there only one way?

Learning Liberty"I disapprove of what you say,

but I will defend to the death your right to say it”- Evelyn Beatrice Hall in Friends of Voltaire (1906)

A Right to the Freedom of Speech

But ... a right to not be offended ???

Hollywood Futures = Catastrophic Futures ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdzpNH0DNZ4http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZIt20emgLYhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAEkuVgt6Aw

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x175qup_bbc-this-world-don-t-panic-the-truth-about-population-h264-1280x720-aac-rmac_news

An even better future world – Emotions versus …… Evidence: everybody is getting richer

An “Evidence-Based Science” trend to a bright happy future society

More of everything:• More energy use• More consumption• Cleaner environment • More people• More live in cities• More wilderness• Healthier people• Happier people• Longer lives

(Check the evidence ...... not the emotion :-) (Check the facts ...... not the fiction :-)

http://www.rd.com/best-of-america/cheer-up-17-reasons-its-a-great-time-to-be-alive/http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/4/2/optimistography-josh-159.htmlhttp://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/reader's-digest.aspx

Science...a game of shadows. Let’s play ... shall

we?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3jVKDd3nAA

So, ... ”You know my methods ...” (The Scientific Method & Logical Arguments)

at 1:24 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7d_-A1ju9M

http://skepticalswedishscientists.wordpress.com/scientific-method/

Good Luck!

Good vs BadHappy vs SadClean vs DirtyGreen vs BlackCheap vs ExpensivePractical vs ImpracticalRenewable vs Non-RenewableAbove Ground vs Below GroundEnergy Sparse vs Energy IntensiveEnvironmentally Friendly vs Not Environmentally Friendly

The Energy Resources Name Game

Rhetoric vs Facts

http://www.energytribune.com/11720/whatever-happened-to-peak-oilhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/02/peak-oil-we-we-wrong

Peak Oil? … good news … explained as bad news?

http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2014/07/EU_expects_above_average_cerea.aspx?ID=%7b59FF2C2B-A335-4DB7-BBE6-5FFD766B8D68%7d&cck=1http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/

Some Evidence Base for Food Predictions

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/22/paul-ehrlich-wrong-again-world-cereal-production-set-to-reach-historic-high/#more-90290

http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/the-age-of-plenty

http://www.science20.com/news_articles/looming_population_implosion-108334http://www.theclimatescam.se/2013/04/14/ingen-befolkningsexplosion-i-sikte/

Only 8 billion people maximum ... and already food enough for all

Notice risks are given in natural frequencies (per million) THEN compared to other normal risks

Disadvantages with ALL (including ”renewable”) energy resources

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.se/2013/02/noaa-slays-billion-dollar-disaster-meme.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/07/090731-green-sahara.htmlhttp://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/11/19/sea-level-rise-less-than-0-7-mmyear-and-falling/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/01/dr-ryan-maue-releases-new-hurricane-frequency-data-showing-a-negative-trend-in-the-last-30-years/http://www.c3headlines.com/2013/week3/index.html

Other CO2 -Global Warming inconvenient

truths

Sea level rises slowing

Deserts greening & Earth too

Lower atmosphere cooling

Hurricanes decreasing

No climate crop losses

Temps go down as CO2 goes up

science textbooks say, but ...

"Nothing in biology makes sense, except in the light of evolution." - Theodosius Dobzhansky 1973

Why?

Are Treelines ”moving uphill” because of rising temperatures? ... or changes in rainfall, CO2 concs, biologically-available nitrogen (and other nutrients), and

even winds?

http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/18/swedish-tree-line/

Little pine tree circles "o" have been popping up naturally at 1000 AD (top), 3500BC, 6000BC (bottom)

http://www.geol.lu.se/PERSONAL/H/images/BER2005.pdf

”Toxic” Plastic – bad ...or not?

http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/jan/oceanic-%E2%80%9Cgarbage-patch%E2%80%9D-not-nearly-big-portrayed-media

http://www.pnas.org/content/111/28/10239.abstracthttp://www.theverge.com/2014/6/30/5859060/ocean-plastic-millions-of-tons-gone-missing

http://junkscience.com/2014/07/21/how-much-plastic-in-the-ocean/#more-61812PJTV - Fantasy Island: Scientist Slashes His Estimate of Ocean's Plastic Dumps

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37vWKrQwRLQ

Pacific Ocean – plastic rubbish dump or not?

Radon Risky ... or not? The Scientific Evidence Hunt

http://www.gasdetection.com/interscan-in-the-news/magazine-articles/radon-silent-killer-maybe/http://www.enviroliteracy.org/article.php/1086.htmlhttp://www.vredevoogd.com/blog/bid/187162/Indoor-Air-Quality-Problems-The-Other-Side-Of-The-Radon-Argument

http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/3703373?uid=3738984&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21103796494017

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080325122807.htmhttp://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2009/12/13/the-epas-other-hockey-stick-the-radon-scam/

http://www.bmj.com/content/330/7485/223

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/should-homeowners-consider-radon-threat-false-alarm

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/publications/special/honest_broker/naturereview.pdf

The Honest Broker (How scientists should interact with politics?)

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-2710-2008.19.pdf

Ambrogio Lorenzetti (1338-40) Allegory of Good Government, Plazzo Publico, Siena, Italy

Pure Scientist Issue Advocate Honest BrokerScience Arbiter

The Honest Broker seeks to enable the freedom of choice for a decision maker. Non-Politicized Science Roles Politicized Science Roles

Stealth Advocate

So then, I’ll see you out there, soaking up more of the sunny joy of living,making our fantastic wonder world even better, & proud of being amazing Homo sapiens who with science and reason, are increasingly showing signs of using their rational minds

Brady on the coral cay : Lady Elliot Island, South Coral Sea, Great Barrier Reef, Australia