Critical Thinking
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Transcript of Critical Thinking
Lesson Preface“The Fine Art of Baloney Detection” was developed by author Carl Sagan to reveal the many types of deception to which we
are susceptible.
Our Purpose• This class is focused on building
business skills.• We will explore critical thinking
theory only as it relates to business decisions.
• We are intentionally limiting the scope of this tool, though it has wider implications.
Sagan asserts that his Baloney Detection Kit isn’t merely a tool of science — rather, it contains invaluable tools of healthy skepticism that apply to everyday life. By using it, we can shield ourselves against deception and deliberate manipulation.
What’s a Baloney Detection Kit?
BDK is a set of nine cognitive tools and techniques that strengthen one’s mind against penetration by
falsehoods.
The BDK is brought out whenever new ideas or information
are offered for consideration.
FACTOID: The BDK is extremely light-weight (3.3 Lbs.) and easily accessible.
If a new idea survives close examination by the tools in our kit, we grant it tentative acceptance.
Maybe
TOOL #1
Independent Work
Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the
“facts.” How can you test an idea?
Defin i t i on
A question of fact hinges on evidence.
Do you accept this definition?
This brings up the heated question of …Where do we find reliable
and credible sources of information?
Is it based on inductive or deductive logic?
Process?
Are you familiar with the Wiki experiment?www.wikipedia.org/
Encourage substantive debate (discussion) on the evidence by knowledgeable sources and proponents of all points of view.
TOOL #2Substance, Source & Scope
The great debate!
Controversial issues generate strong feelings.• Be open.• Be respectful.• Be civil. • But mostly, be thorough.• Where’s the baloney?
Debate
TOOL #3
Challenge Authority
Can you think of three examples of authorities making mistakes?
Thinking?
Theory: There is no safety in numbers
Thinking?
Arguments from authority carry little or no weight —
“authorities” have made mistakes in the past.
They will do so again in the future.
Assertion: No one can predict the future.
Pe r s p e c t i v e s / P re j u d i c e s ?
Where and from whom do you get your information to make decisions?
TOOL #4Consider more than one
hypothesis
Let’s explore more ideas!
• If something needs to be explained, consider all of the different ways in which it can be explained.
• Think of how you might generate multiple ideas and systematically validate or disprove each.
• What survives among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the best answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that seemed plausible.
Pro c e s s ?
How can we design an experiment to either prove or disprove each of these theories and objections?
Our E-Waste Experiment- Here are some objections we’ve heard thus far:• Recycling old electronics is too difficult.• Old computers are worthless junk.• There is no money to be made in e-waste.• You have to do it on a large scale to make it viable financially.• Electronics contain many toxins and are expensive to dispose
of.• Big money can be made if and only if you discover a new
process for recycling e-waste• Recycling is bad because it uses more energy than it saves
Think Time: Connect all nine dots using four straight lines and without picking up your pencil
TOOL #5
Invite questions. Do not get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it is yours.
• Ask yourself why you like the idea. Dig five levels.
• Compare your idea fairly with all the competing alternatives.
• See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. • If you don’t honestly and fully explore these
reasons, others will.
Avoid Personal Attachment
Quantify data if at all possible
TOOL #6
Assertion: There is uncertainty in all scientific data and the best scientist finds some degree of error and uncertainty in their
measurements.
If whatever it is you’re explaining has some
measure or numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll
be much better able to discern more information
among competing theories. What is qualitative is vague and open to many
explanations.
Every link in the logic chain must hold true
TOOL #7
Assertion: Every progression or step must be logical.
If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise) — not just some or most of them.Don’t accept mixed logic or verbosity. Emotion sells but truth
tells.
Fallacies
When faced with two hypotheses that explain
the data equally well, choose the simpler.
TOOL #8
TOOL #9
Seek to disprove.
Always ask whether the hypothesis can be,
at least in principle, falsified. When might a theory ever be conditional?
Propositions that are untestable are not worth very much. • Consider if an idea is not capable of
disproof. • You must be able to check out
assertions. • Skeptics must be given the chance to
follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments, to follow your logic, and see if they get the same result.
Skeptic?
Summary1. Independent Work Experience
2. Substance, Source & Scope Study source
3. Challenge Authority Devi’s Advocate
4. Consider More Than One Hypothesis Multiple ideas
5. Avoid Personal Attachment Invite questions
6. Quantify Data If Possible Metrics
7. Every Link In Chain Must Hold True All True
8. Simplify Easiest if equal
9. Seek to Disprove Invalidate
Discuss
Brainstorming and Supplemental Learning Opportunities
MaroonedScenario: You are marooned on an island.
Please write down your answer to this question: Based solely in present day reality, what five items would you have brought with you if you knew there was a chance that you might be stranded?
PEER REVIEW AND PRIZES WILL BE AWARDED!
Inquiring MindsA genie has granted your wish for financial freedom and you will receive $1,440.00 daily for life! *You must spend all of it every day.
• What will you do with it?We all have the exact same amount of time each day. 1440
minutes.Time is money! Focus your time, dream big, and make a firm
plan. Experiment in the margins of your life.
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Lessons In Critical Thinking
Mary Jane Clark, Certified Kauffman Foundation Ice House Facilitator
Contact [email protected] (Glad to connect with inquiring minds)
Do the work. Examine results. Seek credible sources & input. Adjust plan. Execute. Repeat.
