Critical Consumption Trends and Implications

Critical Consumption Trends and Implications

Degrading Earth’s Ecosystems

by

Emily Matthews and Allen Hammond

Copyright World Resources Institute 1999

Critical Consumption Trends and Implications2

Executive Summary 3

ContentsPreface........................................................................................................................................................... 5

Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................................6

Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 7

I. Food Consumption and Disruption of the Nitrogen Cycle ............................................................. 11

1. Patterns of World Food Consumption and Production ............................................................................ 11

2. Agriculture, Environmental Impacts and the Global Nitrogen Cycle ....................................................... 13

3. “Fertilizing the Earth” .............................................................................................................................. 16

4. Looking Ahead: Growing the Food We Need ........................................................................................ 22

5. How Much More Fertilizer Will the World Consume? ............................................................................ 23

6. Possible Solutions .................................................................................................................................... 24

II. Wood Fiber Consumption and the World’s Forests ....................................................................... 31

1. Global Forestry and the Forest Products Sector ..................................................................................... 31

2. Where Does Our Wood Come From? .................................................................................................... 32

3. Key Trends in Wood Fiber Production and Consumption ...................................................................... 33

4. Wood Fiber Consumption and Environmental Impacts........................................................................... 35

5. Looking Ahead: How Much More Wood Fiber Will the World Need? ................................................... 39

6. How Much More Fiber Can the Earth Provide? ..................................................................................... 40

7. Where Might the “Extra 30 Percent” Come From? ............................................................................... 40


III. Fish Consumption and Aquatic Ecosystems .................................................................................. 51

1. Global Fish Consumption ......................................................................................................................... 51

2. Unfolding Trends in the Global Fisheries Industry ................................................................................... 52

3. A Renewable Resource in Decline ......................................................................................................... 55

4. Current Fishing Practices and Ecosystem Impacts ................................................................................. 57

5. Looking Ahead: Future Demand and Constraints on Supply ...................................................................61


About the Authors .......................................................................................................................................68

Executive Summary 5

Preface

All too often, discussion of consumption issues andtheir environmental effects is either polarized orfocused exclusively on lifestyle issues. This reporttakes a different perspective. It argues thatproduction and consumption patterns are integrallylinked: that the entire use cycle must be consideredif environmental effects are to be understood,potential interventions identified, and effectivepolicy approaches articulated.

Furthermore, this report argues that industrial-ized and developing countries have many commonor overlapping interests in the environmentalimpacts of present production-consumption pat-terns. This common interest is especially evident inthe examples examined in this report – food, fiber,and fishery products, the major natural resource-based economic sectors.

Finally, this report suggests that the urgency ofaddressing consumption in this systemic fashionbecomes clear when consumption trends areconsidered. Within a decade, plausible demandforecasts suggest a marked escalation of environ-mental impacts, if the present production-consump-tion patterns are not altered.

If we can find common ground for addressingconsumption issues, then the opportunities forshared approaches and more rapid action areimproved. That at least is our hope.

E.M.A.H.


Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge thevaluable comments and many data contributionsfrom colleagues in the Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations, the U.S.Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Agricul-ture, the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration, the International Food PolicyResearch Institute, the European Forest Institute,and the Ministry of Environment, Spatial Planningand Environment of the Netherlands. Specialthanks go to Derry Allen at the U.S. Environmen-tal Protection Agency, Serge Garcia and UweBarg at FAO, Jim Galloway at the University ofVirginia, Robert Socolow of Princeton University,and David Hall of King’s College, London.

Our colleagues at WRI have been generouswith their time and support. Our thanks to DirkBryant, Nigel Sizer, Duncan Austin, LaurettaBurke, Carmen Revenga, Arthur Getz, AnnThrupp, and Tony Janetos for review comments; toBeth Harvey for library support; and to MaggiePowell, Hyacinth Billings, and Kathy Doucette fortheir help in the publication process.

The World Resources Institute wishes toacknowledge the support of the U.S. Environmen-tal Protection Agency in making this researcheffort possible, and of the Ministry of Housing,Spatial Planning and Environment of the Nether-lands in funding the publication.

E.M.A.H.

Executive Summary 7

Executive Summary

IntroductionNatural resources – fuels, materials, water andfood commodities – form the basis of all humanactivity. They are the essential inputs to bothsubsistence economies and the most advancedtechnological societies. Resource consumption inthe world is rising rapidly, driven by populationgrowth and rising wealth. Technological changeand urbanization also fuel consumption, by creatingnew patterns of human needs and aspirations. Inrecent years, much has been written about theenvironmental and social impacts of modernconsumption patterns. Many studies have focusedon the environmental damage caused by theconsumption patterns typical of industrial econo-mies – high fossil fuel use, polluting emissions andwaste volumes. Others detail the environmentaldegradation which can be induced by poverty – soilerosion and desertification, deforestation, watercontamination. Developmental studies havehighlighted the inequality of consumption levelsbetween industrialized and developing countries,and between rich and poor inhabitants withincountries.

This report adopts a different perspective, andseeks to place consumption at the center of policy-making for socio-economic development andecological sustainability. Through a survey of broadresource use trends over the past 30 to 40 years, itdemonstrates how both the level and distribution ofconsumption have changed radically in many partsof the world. By presenting the best availableforecasts of consumption over the next ten totwenty years, it makes clear just how much morewe will have to coax the earth to provide. Past andfuture consumption trends are then placed in theirenvironmental context: what pressures have ourconsumption habits placed on the earth’s capacityto provide the goods and absorb the wastes? Whatemerges from this analysis is that fundamentalchanges are taking place in global biologicalprocesses. Our attention has perhaps been focused

too much at the local and regional level – onspecific polluting emissions, or loss of specifichabitats and species – and too little on wholeecosystems. Our understanding of how complexecosystems function remains relatively limited, butthe evidence of serious disruption is now wide-spread. Chronic, human-induced imbalances inmajor biological systems – for example, nutrientcycling, inter-species relationships and food chains– are more insidious than acute incidents ofpollution or other damage. Their consequences,however, may be much harder to reverse, andmore serious for the developmental and securityprospects of every country.

Consumption Trends and EcosystemImpactsThe report examines consumption trends, and theassociated impacts on natural ecosystems, forthree key resources – food (cereals and meat),wood fiber, and fish. These resources have beenselected because they are of universal importanceand interest to countries in all geographic regionsand income groups. Additionally, consumption of allthree is rising everywhere and demand is beingfuelled in part by basic needs such as nutrition andliteracy, not merely by “lifestyle” preferences.Finally, none of these resources is easily substi-tuted. Demand management and technologicaladvances can therefore do only so much to slowdemand: consumption will inevitably increase incoming years.

Cereals and MeatWorld cereal consumption has more than doubledin the last 30 years, while meat consumption hastripled since 1961 and is increasing at a linear rate.The agricultural success story is that rising demandhas been met; more people are now better fed thanthey were a generation ago. One of the manyenvironmental consequences, only now becoming


clear, is significant disruption of the global nitrogencycle. In the past half century, the application ofinorganic nitrogen fertilizers world-wide hasincreased more than ninefold, and the number oflivestock has more than doubled since 1960.Fertilizers and animal manures have increased andconcentrated, respectively, the amount of nitrogenentering soils, freshwater and marine ecosystems.Human activity has actually doubled the naturalannual rate of nitrogen fixation, and by far thelargest single cause is agriculture.

Most agricultural experts believe that increas-ing global demand for cereals and meat can bemet, and forecast that grain production will rise byabout 15 percent by 2010, and by 25 to 40 percentby 2020. More fertilizer will be needed to producethe additional cereals and fodder crops for animals.Looking ahead just 12 years, if current practicespersist, global fertilizer consumption will increaseby at least 55 percent by 2010. In some under-fertilized regions, such as South America andAfrica, this could be an entirely positive develop-ment. In others, notably parts of South and EastAsia, nitrogen saturation will approach the levelsalready experienced in northwestern Europe andparts of the United States. The incidence andseverity of nitrate contamination of drinking water,ground-level ozone formation, crop damage, forestdie-back, and damage to coastal fisheries fromalgal blooms (“red” and “brown” tides) can all beexpected to increase dramatically.

Wood fiberGlobal wood consumption has risen by 64 percentsince 1961. Demand for fuelwood and charcoalrose by nearly 80 percent and more than half theworld’s wood fiber supply is now burned as fuel.Consumption of sawlogs, veneers, pulp for paper-making and other industrial forms of wood fiberrose by nearly 50 percent over the same period.Rising demand for industrial wood has encouragedwidespread planting of industrial plantations and,today, they account for nearly 25 percent of supply.However, the bulk of wood fiber for all uses stillcomes from old-growth or secondary-growthforests. Demand for wood fiber is a major, though

by no means the only, cause of deforestation.Commercial logging has accelerated the clearanceof old-growth tropical hardwood forests; since1960, more than one-fifth of the world’s entiretropical forest cover has been removed. Logging isalso the primary cause of conversion of old-growthconiferous forests in temperate regions to managedforests with more uniform structure and lowerbiodiversity.

Demand for industrial wood fiber is projectedto rise by between 20 and 40 percent by 2010.Most forestry analysts expect that demand will bemet at the global level, but that regional shortfallswill occur, leading to higher fiber prices. If currentpatterns of production are not changed, pressure ofdemand will result in supplies being drawn from theworld’s last remaining “frontier” forests. Thetropical forests of the Amazon and equatorialAfrica and the boreal forests of Siberia andCanada will not survive in their current form.Projections of future woodfuel consumption rangemore widely, due to poor data and uncertaintiesover the difference between what people actuallyconsume and what they would consume, if theirneeds were fully met. Consumption might rise byonly 1 percent by 2010, if supplies are constrainedby lack of availability. Consumption could morethan double, if constraints were removed. Manystudies predict that critical shortages will affectparts of Africa and Asia, unless more effort ismade to establish woodfuel plantations.

Fish and Fishery ProductsConsumption of fish and fishery products (such asfish meal and fish oils) has risen by 240 percentsince 1960 and more than fivefold since 1950.Intensive fishing effort has led to the collapse ofmany important commercial fisheries in thenorthern hemisphere and pressures are nowmounting on southern fisheries. Overfishing,pollution, and disturbance of marine habitats havereduced the productivity of many coastal zones,where some 90 percent of the world’s fish harvestis caught. Marine harvests of fish appear to havepeaked and now account for a declining share oftotal production. Aquaculture, or fish farming, has

Executive Summary 9

become increasingly important and now providesmore than one-quarter of all fish destined forhuman consumption.

Demand for food fish is projected to increaseby at least 34 per cent, and probably by nearer 50per cent, by 2010. Analysts are virtually unanimousthat this level of consumption cannot be met ifcurrent production trends continue unchanged. Theworld’s few remaining productive fishing groundswill be fished out in their turn and total marineharvests are expected to fall from today’s levels.Aquaculture production, even under the mostoptimistic growth projections, would not be able tofill the gap. Scarcity will cause fish prices to riseand encourage more international trade. This, inturn, will favor subsidized industrial fishing fleetswhich supply relatively wealthy markets, at theexpense of small-scale, subsistence fishers. Nearlyone billion people, most of them in developingcountries, currently depend on fish for their pri-mary source of protein. This source is likely todwindle away within a generation. The outlook forfood security and employment among low-incomecoastal countries could hardly be more serious.

Opportunities for ChangeThese three examples from the agriculture, for-estry, and fisheries sectors demonstrate howcurrent practices are undermining the biologicalsystems which support key renewable resources,exploiting them in such a way that potentially ever-lasting supplies are being depleted. Other examplescould have been chosen: fossil fuel use is changingthe global climate, water engineering projects haveprofoundly altered freshwater habitats. In manycases, wasteful, inefficient or short-sighted produc-tion and consumption patterns are putting at riskwhole ecosystems, disrupting their normal function-ing and reducing their potential productivity, nowand for the future. This is perhaps the mostunsustainable aspect of human economic activitytoday.

This report also looks at the possibility ofchange through policy reform. Policy interventions

can be made at the point of resource production, orat any point in the processing and distribution chain,or they can target end-use behavior by the con-sumer. The report reflects these differencesamong, and within, the sectors under discussionand suggests where policy interventions might bemost effective in each case.

Policy Directions for the Next DecadeIn the case of food consumption, some reduction ofconsumer demand for meat might be possible,particularly where per capita consumption is highenough to generate some health concerns. Greaterpublic awareness of over-fishing and destructivefishing practices could influence which fish areconsumed and how they are caught, at least amongwealthy consumers. Equally, consumer concernsover tropical deforestation could further developthe market for sustainably produced hardwoodproducts.

The wood fiber sector offers considerablescope for efficiency improvements, if regulatoryand economic incentives are applied. Technologicaladvance has already improved the efficiency offiber utilization and enabled some substitution ofnon-wood materials. The proportion of wood fiberwhich is recovered during processing and manu-facture, and the percentage of paper made fromrecycled fiber have risen impressively over thepast 30 years and could rise further.

However, the drivers behind rising food, fish,and fiber consumption are in large part fundamen-tal: a growing population’s need for adequatenutrition and literacy (paper consumption has risenfaster than any other use of wood), energy, andshelter. Woodfuels and construction timber cancertainly be substituted but not, realistically, withinthe time frame covered in this report. Grain andfish for direct human consumption can hardly besubstituted at all, especially in rural economies. Thedemand curves projected for the next decade arenot likely to be altered much. Given this reality, thereport urges a reorientation of production methods.


Agriculture: Currently, well under half the nitrogenapplied to crops world-wide in fertilizer is actuallyutilized by growing plants. The rest becomes apollutant, wasting farmers’ money and imposingheavy costs on society in terms of clean-uprequirements and lost productivity. Animal manure,rather than substituting for inorganic fertilizers, isincreasingly added to them, or simply disposed ofas a waste product. Economic and regulatoryincentives for more timely and efficient use,research which improves understanding of fertilizerapplication and uptake by crops, agriculturalextension and outreach programs which encouragefarm management practices to reduce nitrogenrun-off are all urgently needed so that food produc-tion can rise without further contamination of soils,water supplies, and coastal zones.

Forestry: In theory, the world’s entire currentdemand for industrial wood could be met fromintensively-managed plantations covering an areaequivalent to less than 10 percent of today’snatural forests – even after allowing for extensiveenvironmental protection measures. In practice, avery substantial part of the forecast increase inconsumption could be supplied from plantations, iflegal protection of old-growth forests werestrengthened, forestry management standardswere tightened, thus raising costs, and financialincentives for plantation establishment, and goodmanagement, were increased. Community planta-tions to provide fuelwood have proved successfulin a number of developing countries and representthe most realistic short-term policy option untilrising wealth enables the transition from woodfuelsto commercial alternatives.

Fisheries: Again in theory, the world’s oceans areestimated to be capable of providing a sustainableannual fish catch 17 per cent, or even 24 per cent,higher than 1996 levels. This can be achieved onlyif international agreements to protect declining fishstocks are honored and if individual countriesimprove the management of their national fisheries.The capacity of the global fishing fleet is currentlyat least 30 per cent, and possibly 150 per cent,greater than is required to catch the current annual

harvest. Economic packages which phase outincentives to enter, or continue in, an over-capital-ized industry must be implemented more widely,along with adequate compensation for fishers whoabandon the profession. Substantial technical andfinancial cooperation among governments repre-senting industrial and artisanal fishing interests willbe required. Equally importantly, stronger pollutioncontrol and conservation measures should beenforced to safeguard marine habitats, particularlyfish spawning grounds in coastal areas.

ConclusionsIt is notable that, in thinking about more rationalways of meeting demands for key natural re-sources in the future, it is necessary to think aboutthe entire use cycle, from production to finalconsumption and disposal. It is also notable that noline can easily be drawn between the developedand developing countries. Consumption is rising inevery major world region, although at differentrates; ecosystem damage is occurring in manyregions, although it has progressed further in some;the economic and social impacts are being felt bypeople everywhere, either directly in their dailylivelihood or, less directly, in the form of higherprices and reduced quality of life.

The scenarios for 2010 presented in the reportare daunting. At the same time, they are notinevitable. The purpose of this report is to suggestthat rising consumption needs can be met, but thatthey should be met in more imaginative ways. Thepossible solutions set out in the following pagesutilize, for the most part, familiar policy conceptsand currently available knowledge and technolo-gies. Imagination is required only to summon thewill to put them into effect. Attempting to meet theworld’s future consumption by simply doing “moreof the same” will accelerate ecosystem degrada-tion and will undermine the very productivity weare striving to increase.

FOOD CONSUMPTION AND DISRUPTION OF THE NITROGEN CYCLE 11

1. Patterns of World FoodConsumption and Production

After water, food is our most vital item of con-sumption. About three-quarters of the human foodsupply comes from agriculture (the balance beingsupplied by fishing, hunting and gathering). Crop-land and permanent pasture cover some 37 percentof the world’s land area and a much higher propor-tion of the habitable land area.1 Food production isby far the dominant form of land use. The humandiet varies widely in different parts of the world, butFigure 1 illustrates the composition of the averagefood intake in 1996. Some items, such as alcoholic

beverages derived from cereals and fruits, areexcluded.

Cereals remain the mainstay of the human foodsupply, but significant changes have taken placeover the past four decades. Per capita consumptionof cereals and meat rose 17 percent and 36 percentrespectively, while per capita consumption of fishand seafood rose 57 percent. Consumption ofleguminous plants such as rice and soybeans,valued for their high protein content, rose inabsolute and per capita terms. Vegetables, starchyroots (such as potatoes) and pulses all declined in

I. Food Consumption andDisruption of the Nitrogen Cycle

Source: FAOSTATNotes: Sugar crops include sweeteners; oil crops include vegetable oils

Figure 1. World Food Consumption, 1996 (kg/capita/year)

158.7

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CRITICAL CONSUMPTION TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS12

importance on a per capita basis, though totalconsumption increased. Also significant has beenthe increase in consumption of what might betermed “lifestyle” products such as coffee, tea andalcoholic beverages. Coffee production, for ex-ample, has risen by 37 percent since 1961 and theharvested area now accounts for about one percentof total arable land.2 Rising incomes, together withthe development of sophisticated food processingand distribution systems and a liberalized worldtrade regime, have enabled consumers in theindustrialized countries, and many affluent centersin the developing world, to enjoy unprecedentedchoice in the foods they eat. As a result, manycountries have re-oriented part of their agriculturesector towards export products including “exotic”food items, and feedstuffs for livestock.

Population Growth and Food ProductionBetween 1960 and 1996, the world’s populationrose from 3 billion to 5.8 billion, an unprecedentedrate of increase which posed a major challenge tofood producers. Historically, as the human popula-tion has grown, the area of land used to produce

food has simply been expanded. By 1960, however,most of the world’s best soils were already in useand new land could be brought into cultivation onlyat a relatively slow rate. The area of croplandavailable to feed each person therefore fell dramati-cally, from about 0.43 hectares per capita in 1961to about 0.26 hectares per capita in 1996. Despitethis handicap, food production kept pace withpopulation growth, more than doubling between1961 and 1996.3 The relative increases in worldpopulation, cultivated land area, and cereal produc-tion are shown in Figure 2. Humans eat manythings other than cereal, but cereals account forabout half of our total calorie intake, and are usuallyaccepted as a good proxy for food production.4

Both developed and developing countries raisedtheir cereal production after 1961, but growth rateswere highest in the developing countries, wherecereal production rose at an annual compound rateof 3.3 percent. This contributed greatly to im-proved nutrition; the average calorie supply topeople in less developed regions rose by over 30percent and the proportion of hungry or under-

Source: UN Population Division and FAO

Figure 2. Population, Cultivated Land, and Cereal Production, 1961-1996, Indexed to 1980

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nourished people in the world fell from 35 to 21percent. Nevertheless, because of populationincrease, the absolute number of undernourishedpeople fell only slightly, and now stands at about840 million people.5

The world’s revolution in agricultural produc-tion was made possible in large part by irrigationand the increased use of inorganic nitrogen fertiliz-ers.6 (The precise contribution of fertilizers toraising yields is still unclear, but is estimated atbetween 35 and 50 per cent.7) Fertilizers contributeto increased crop production in several ways: byreplenishing nutrients used by growing plants, byincreasing the amount of biomass in the soil, whichimproves moisture retention and nutrient useefficiency, and by enabling the adoption of moreproductive varieties of cereal. New, high-yieldingvarieties of wheat and rice have been bred spe-cially to utilize more nitrogen and convert it intomore grain. Increased yields have accounted formore than 80 percent of the growth in cerealproduction in the developing countries, whileexpansion of cultivated land has accounted for just20 per cent.8

2. Agriculture, Environmental Impacts,and the Global Nitrogen Cycle

The intensification of agriculture has reduced theneed to expand cultivation into marginal andecologically fragile areas but there have been other,considerable, environmental costs. Poor soilmanagement, over-grazing, and inappropriate useof pesticides and herbicides are associated in manyparts of the world with soil erosion, desertification,fertility declines, and contamination of soils andwater supplies. This paper, however, focuses on theenvironmental impacts of increased nitrogen levelsin soils, water, and the atmosphere, for two keyreasons.

Firstly, modern agriculture is the leading sourceof anthropogenic (human origin) nitrogen enteringthe environment. Inorganic nitrogen fertilizers arean essential input to maintaining high crop yields.They cannot readily be substituted and fertilizationmust probably increase in the future if we are to

feed a still-growing world population. In addition,meat consumption is rising world-wide and thenumbers of livestock, and associated volumes ofnitrogen-rich manure, will rise too.

Secondly, in the past decade, we have greatlyadvanced our understanding of the global nitrogencycle, and it has become clear that human additionof nitrogen to the environment is disrupting entireecosystems across a wide geographical range. Whathave usually been considered as distinct problems –for example, eutrophication of surface waters, oracidification of lakes and forest soils – should beseen as symptoms of a more universal assault onthe global environment.

The global scale of nitrogen pollution is, atpresent, under-appreciated. Policy responses to thechallenge of meeting future food needs withoutfurther unbalancing biological systems remainunder-developed. There is a need for more long-term and coordinated thinking, and the closestanalogy lies with the emergence of internationalefforts to manage the world’s energy system andexcessive emissions of carbon. Disruption of theglobal nitrogen cycle now appears to warrant thesame degree of attention.

Trends in Nitrogen Fertilizer UseGlobal consumption of fertilizer has risen spectacu-larly, increasing tenfold between 1950 and 1989(Figure 3). The steep drop in consumption afterthat date was due principally to collapsing demandin the former Soviet Union, and Central andEastern Europe, but there was also a substantialfall in Western Europe, caused by grain surpluses,low crop prices, and saturated markets. Theincreasing share of nitrogen in the global fertilizermix becomes clear after about 1960, and the bias ismost strongly pronounced in the developingcountries, where nitrogen now accounts for 66percent of fertilizers consumed, compared with 55percent in the developed countries.9

The bias towards nitrogen fertilizers has beenencouraged in part by increased production in areaswhere cheap natural gas is available (includingmajor consuming regions such as South Asia and


China) and in part by the perception that nitrogendelivers the most spectacular yield gains, at leastinitially.

The pattern of global fertilizer consumption haschanged markedly over the past 30 to 40 years(Figure 4). In 1960, the developing countriesaccounted for just 12 percent of all consumption;today the figure is nearly 60 percent. Fertilizer usein the developing world has been fuelled by rapidpopulation growth and growing demand for foodgrains. This is especially true of Asia, where thescope for land expansion is limited. By contrast, theindustrialized countries (with the exception of theformer Soviet Union) increased their fertilizerconsumption only marginally after 1980; populationgrowth was low, most people were adequately fed,and world agricultural exports had stagnated due toeconomic problems in many importing countries.Asia is now the dominant player, accounting for 50percent of world fertilizer consumption, and 86percent of developing country consumption.

Fertilizer application rates vary widely amongthe major world regions and, perhaps surprisingly,are not strongly correlated either with nationalincome or with need (as indicated by low soilfertility or food insecurity). Fertilizer use variesfrom a low of 10 kg/hectare in sub-Saharan Africato a high of about 216 kg/hectare in East Asia (bynutrient weight). The world average application rateis about 83 kg/hectare; the developing countries as awhole just exceed this figure, and the developedcountries as a whole fall just short of it.10

Fertilizer consumption has been stronglypromoted in the industrialized countries and in Asiaby investment in production capacity and a policyand fiscal framework encouraging liberal fertilizeruse. Latin America has experienced wide fluctua-tions and modest overall growth, due to an unstablepolicy environment and economic crises throughoutthe 1980s. Production and consumption in sub-Saharan Africa remain very low, despite the urgentneed to raise yields. Growth has been hindered by

Figure 3. Global Fertilizer Consumption, 1950/51-1996/97

Source: International Fertilizer Industry Association

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foreign exchange shortages, low crop prices, policyinstability, and inadequate physical and institutionalinfrastructure. More than half the countries in theregion are wholly dependent on fertilizer aid to meettheir requirements.11

Livestock FarmingA second trend of key importance in the story offood consumption and the nitrogen cycle is thegrowing popularity of meat and dairy products inthe human diet. With rising income, consumerschoose to eat more meat; still greater affluence andconcerns for a healthy lifestyle seem to encourage ashift from red meat to poultry. Meat productionworld-wide has tripled since 1961, reaching 213million tonnes in 1997 (Figure 5), with output gainsconcentrated in the United States, the EuropeanUnion, and China. Individual consumption remainshighest in the industrialized world. Average percapita meat consumption in the United States was118 kg/year in 1996, while the average for thedeveloped world as a whole was 76 kg/person/

year. Average per capita consumption in thedeveloping countries was 24 kg/year but thepicture is rapidly changing in many parts of SouthAmerica and Asia. For example, the Chinese eachconsumed 41 kg of meat in 1996, up from 20 kg/year just a decade earlier. Total meat consumptionin the developing countries just exceeds that in thedeveloped world and, in internationally traded meatand meat products, there is a small net inflow tothe developing countries.12

To meet growing demand, the world’s livestockpopulation has boomed. Cattle numbers rose by 40percent between 1961 and 1997, pigs by 130percent and chickens by 246 percent. The worldtoday is home to 13.5 billion chickens.13 In industri-alized countries, animals traditionally reared onrangelands or in farmyards are now increasinglyconcentrated in intensive feedlots, where they arefed on cereals and commercial preparations ofgrain, animal protein, and fish meal. This trend, inturn, is leading to the concentration of huge

Source: International Fertilizer Industry Association

Figure 4. Fertilizer Nutrient Consumption (NPK), 1970-1996

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volumes of manure, which cannot economically beredistributed back to areas where the cereals wereoriginally grown. The nitrogen component ofmanure varies according to the animal and its dietbut a crude global estimate is that approximately 32million tonnes of nitrogen (derived from foddercrops and forage) are deposited into the environ-ment via manure each year.14

Where animals are still free-ranging, manuremay act as a fertilizer. Where animals are concen-trated in feedlots, manure is increasingly viewed asa waste disposal problem. Data for the UnitedStates indicate that, of nearly 160 million tonnes ofmanure produced annually, some 60 percent isexcreted directly onto pasture and cropland, while40 percent is collected from animals in confinementand must somehow be disposed of.15 Manurevolumes have reached a critical point in parts ofNorthwestern Europe, where nitrogen deposition farexceeds the absorptive capacity of crops (Table 1).Concentration of livestock in feedlots is not yet the

norm in developing countries, though industrial-scale chicken farms are becoming more common,for example, in some South American countries.

3. “Fertilizing the Earth”Great uncertainties are involved in measuring theglobal distribution and transport of nitrogen, howmuch is being stored, and where, because reactivenitrogen in its many forms is highly mobile, movingeasily between terrestrial, freshwater and marineecosystems, and the atmosphere (Figure 6). Butenough is known to be certain that human domina-tion of the nitrogen cycle is responsible for seriouspollution and disruption of biological processeswhich underpin – among other important functions– food production. Human activity is now fixingnitrogen (creating reactive nitrogen from non-reactive N

2 in the atmosphere) at least as fast as

natural terrestrial processes (Box 1). To someextent (which varies according to ecosystemcharacteristics) additional nitrogen can be utilizedby plants and their productivity will be enhanced.

Figure 5. World Meat Production, 1961-97

Source: FAOSTAT

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Beyond that point, excess nitrogen will accumulatein the environment, changing the chemistry of soilsand often reducing their fertility, displacing grass-land species, suffocating aquatic plants and fish,and touching off toxic algal blooms.

Forests, Soils and GrasslandsIncreased deposition of nitrogen into the environ-ment has two principal effects. Oxidized forms ofnitrogen (NOx and nitrates) acidify natural ecosys-tems and generally degrade them. For example,scientists now report that acid rain leaches forestsoils of up to 50 percent of their calcium, potas-sium, and magnesium – crucial minerals whichbuffer or neutralize acids and are essential forplant growth. When soil chemistry is changeddramatically in this way, it is likely to take manydecades for all the linked ecosystems to recover.16

A related potential impact is toxification. Leachedsoils acidify and lose their ability to bind andsequester heavy metals, these metals are thusreleased for uptake by plants. Much of the “forestdeath” which struck Germany and other CentralEuropean countries in the 1970s may have beencaused by aluminum poisoning. Toxics accumu-lated over decades may continue to be mobilizedand leached into ground and surface waters, ortaken up by plants and into the food chain.17 Thesame applies in acidified lakes, where aluminumand other metallic ions which were formerly boundto soil particles can be mobilized.

In contrast, reduced forms of nitrogen (ammo-nium ions) fertilize whole ecosystems, increasing

their net primary productivity but also disruptingthem. Some forests in Europe are reported to begrowing much faster in the second part of thiscentury than they did in the first half.18 Thedisturbing explanation appears to be that trees areabsorbing nitrogen directly from the air into theirleaves and bark. It is estimated that, in northernEurope, such above-ground uptake now accountsfor 60 percent of the nitrogen found in broad-leaved trees. While the extra nitrogen increasesgrowth, trees cannot regulate their intake as theycan with nitrogen taken up via their roots; acidifi-cation of the soil also tends to leave them weakand vulnerable to insects and mildew.19 Anotherconsequence of over-fertilization is loss of speciesdiversity, as nitrogen-responsive plants crowd outothers with lower tolerance. In the Netherlands,intensive livestock production and high humanpopulation density have generated the highestnitrogen deposition rates in the world; the conver-sion of species-rich heathlands and pastures tospecies-poor grasslands and forests is well docu-mented.20 Similar trends have been reproduced onexperimental grasslands in both the United King-dom and the United States.

However, there is a limit to the amount ofnitrogen which plants can absorb. At some point,other nutrients become the limiting factor, no morenitrogen can be taken up, and additional depositsare simply dispersed into surface or ground waterand the atmosphere. This state is known as nitrogensaturation; it has already been reached across largeareas of northern Europe, and to a lesser extent in

Table 1. Nitrogen (N) input from animal manure and fertilizer in selected countries

(1000 tonnes) (kilogrammes)

Belgiumb 380 199 580 211 369 240Denmark 434 381 816 287 529 187Netherlands 752 504 1,255 285 970 480

Source: Bumb and Baanante, see note 8Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding.aBecause N is lost to the atmosphere, only a part of the residual N stays in the soil for possible nitrate leachingbIncludes Luxembourg

Country Manure N Supply T otal N Uptake by Residual N 2a Per hectareFertilizer crops


Figure 6. Simplified Version of the Terrestrial Nitrogen Cycle

Source: Adapted from Ann P. Kinzig and Robert H. Socolow, “Human Impacts on the Nitrogen Cycle,” Physics Today, November 1994,figure 4, pp. 24-31. Note based on Socolow, Robert, H., “Nitrogen Management and the Future of Food: Lessons from the Management ofEnergy and Carbon,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming, 1999.

Note: Nitrogen is found in four forms. It is bound to itself in a two-atom molecule, dinitrogen, or N2, which is abundant in theatmosphere but almost unavailable to life until broken down by specialized bacteria. Nitrogen is bound to carbon, as organic nitrogen,in a wide variety of organic molecules, critical to life and present long after death, including proteins and their component amino acids.And it is bound neither to itself nor to carbon, in nitrogen nutrients and nitrogen gases. The two principal nitrogen nutrients areammonium (NH4

+)and nitrate (NO3-) ions in water. The nitrogen gases include ammonia (NH3) and various oxides of nitrogen, including

nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O). A specialized vocabulary describes the transformations from oneform to another. Fixation is the process of making atmospheric N into nitrogen nutrients, and denitrification is the process of rebuildingN from nitrogen nutrients. Assimilation is the process by which nutrients become organic nitrogen in living matter, and mineralization isthe process by which organic nitrogen is decomposed, after death, back into nitrogen nutrients. Most of these processes occur in thesoil but both air routes and water routes connect nutrient systems across large distances.

Human Additions:Nitrogen fertilizersFossil Fuel combustionLegumes

Atmosphere N2

Inorganic Nitrogen (Nutrients)

NO3-NH

4+

Living Matter (Plants, animals,microorganisms)

C-NH2

Dead Organic Matter

C-NH2

Nitrification

Min

eral

izat

ion

Assim

ilationD

eath

Fixation

Den

itrifi

catio

n


northeastern USA. It is now known that a substan-tial portion of atmospheric nitrogen deposited in theformer region moves directly from air, to land, towater, without ever being taken up by any livingorganisms or playing any role in biologicalsystems.21

Freshwater EcosystemsFertilizer is the dominant source of nitrogenwashed into the world’s water courses, thoughdomestic sewage is another important source (thehuman diet is rich in protein). Deposition from theatmosphere is another major source in some partsof the world (Box 2). An ironic aspect of intensivefertilization is that, on average, only half theadditional nitrogen is taken up by plants, due tosaturation, or local weather conditions, or becausenitrogen is applied at an inappropriate point in theplants’ growing cycle. As a result, nitrogen runsoff the soil. It is either carried out in eroded soil, orleached out in the form of dissolved nitrate,carrying with it positively-charged minerals such aspotassium and calcium. Much of the nitrogen islater denitrified by bacteria, that is, “unfixed” backinto the atmosphere, while other nutrients arewashed away. The net result is that nutrients can

be “mined” from the soil, leaving it more impover-ished than before.22 Nitrogen run-off has doubledsince pre-industrial times, which represents both aloss of nutrients and an economic loss to farmers.

Nitrogen concentrations in freshwater, so far,have been studied most intensively in industrializedcountries. For example, a 1994 national survey inthe United States revealed that nearly 40 percentof the country’s lakes and rivers were too pollutedfor basic uses such as fishing or swimming; theleading source of pollution in both categories wasagricultural run-off.23 However, nitrogen is fastaccumulating in developing countries too. In China,nitrate concentrations in the Yangtze River (ChiangJiang) increased fourfold between 1963 and 1980,while concentrations of ammonium approximatelydoubled.24 Much of this increase is attributable tothe use of inorganic nitrogen fertilizers, which roseby a factor of about 12 over the period.25

Nitrogen run-off contributes to the phenom-enon of eutrophication of freshwater lakes andrivers – essentially fertilization in the wrong place.Elevated loads of nutrients, chiefly nitrogen andphosphorous, stimulate abundant growth of algae

Box 1: How Humans Have Doubled the Rate of Nitrogen Fixation

Although nitrogen is the most abundant element in the atmosphere, it cannot be used by plants – and the animals that dependon them – until it is chemically transformed, or fixed, into ammonium or nitrate compounds that plants can metabolize. In naturalsystems, this function is performed by nitrogen-fixing bacteria in the soil and, to a much lesser extent, by lightning. Suchbiological nitrogen fixation is believed to provide somewhere between 90 and 140 million tonnes of nitrogen to terrestrialsystems each year. Humans have wrought major changes over the last 50 years. The advent of intensive agriculture, increas-ing fossil fuel combustion, and the cultivation of leguminous crops and other nitrogen-fixing plants have led to huge additionalquantities of nitrogen deposited into terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the atmosphere. It is estimated that human activitieshave more than doubled the amount of nitrogen available for uptake by plants. Land clearance, wetland drainage and burning ofbiomass also liberate nitrogen from long-term biological storage pools such as soil organic matter and tree trunks; theseactivities could emit up to another 70 million tonnes of nitrogen each year.

Anthropogenic Sources of Nitrogen Annual Release of Fixed Nitrogen (million tonnes)

Fertilizer 80Cultivation of legumes, rice etc. 40Fossil fuel combustion 20Total from human sources 140

Natural Sources of Nitrogen

Soil bacteria, blue-green algae, lightning etc. 90-140

Source: Based on Peter M. Vitousek et al. “Human Alteration of the Global Nitrogen Cycle: Causes and Consequences,” Issuesin Ecology, No. 1 (1997), pp. 4-6.


and other aquatic plants. When the extra plantmatter dies, it sinks to lower depths and decays,depleting the water’s supply of dissolved oxygen,and killing other aquatic organisms such as deep-dwelling fish. The result is scum-covered, malodor-ous water, unfit for drinking or recreational activi-ties. In many freshwater systems, phosphorous, notnitrogen, is the limiting growth factor. However,phosphorous is also supplied by agricultural fertiliz-ers, as well as by industrial and household efflu-ents. Eutrophication is increasingly well-docu-mented world-wide, and is of particular concernwhere freshwater fish are an important source oflocal food. According to the FAO, some 18 percentof the global annual fish catch comes from fresh-water sources (see Chapter 3: Fish Consump-tion and Aquatic Ecosystems).

Nitrate contamination of drinking water suppliesis widely recognized as a serious health threat. Ifexposed to high nitrate levels, young infants maydevelop the potentially fatal “blue-baby” syndrome,where their red blood cells cannot function prop-erly, and fail to deliver sufficient oxygen. Adultsrisk contracting a variety of cancers, although the

risks remain unclear. Levels of nitrates in drinkingwater have been closely monitored for many yearsin the industrialized countries, and the data confirma historic rise in nitrogen levels in surface waters.In major rivers of the northeastern United States,nitrate concentrations have risen three- to tenfoldsince the beginning of the century. Nitrate contami-nation is also the USA’s most widespread ground-water pollution problem; in a national survey, 22percent of wells in US agricultural areas containednitrate levels in excess of the federal limit.26 Somecommunities in the worst affected States nowprovide free bottled drinking water to at-riskhouseholds (those with infants under six monthsand pregnant women) when local nitrate levels risetoo high, and many are beginning to install costlypurification systems.27 Nitrates are a primecontaminant in Europe, where the EuropeanCommission has enacted a Directive establishingmaximum permitted levels in drinking water andrequiring costly purification or mitigation measures.In 1,000 lakes in Norway, nitrate levels doubled inless than a decade. Nitrate pollution is also wide-spread in Australia, and in parts of Africa, Asia,and the Middle East. No global assessment hasbeen undertaken of nitrate pollution, but individual

Box 2: Nitrogen Deposition From the Atmosphere

World-wide, fossil fuel combustion emits more than 20 million tonnes of nitrogen (as NOx) to the atmosphere every year. Less well

known is the fact that agriculture contributes more than double this amount – some 47 million tonnes – to atmospheric emissions ofnitrogen, through direct volatilization of ammonia from fertilized fields, biomass burning and animal wastes.1 Nitrogen in variouschemical states contributes to a number of environmental impacts in the atmosphere, including global warming, destruction of thestratospheric ozone layer and formation of ground level ozone (smog). Most reactive nitrogen in the atmosphere is short-lived, and issoon deposited back onto the oceans or, more seriously, into aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Increased nitrogen levels can botheutrophy (see text) and acidify. Acidification is a well documented phenomenon in Scandinavia, in Western Europe – where high fossilfuel combustion levels combine with intensive agriculture – and eastern North America. Acidification of soils, lakes and streams hascaused extensive defoliation and dieback among trees, and is responsible for major fish kills. For example, studies in Norway revealthat areas with damage to fish stocks grew fivefold between 1960 and 1990; of 13,000 investigated fish stocks, 19 percent werecompletely lost.2 While acid sulphur emissions in industrialized countries have been dramatically reduced over the past 30 years,fossil-fuel related NO

x emissions have remained relatively constant and agriculture-related emissions have risen. Ecosystems are

not recovering as quickly as had been expected.3 Acidification is now emerging as a major problem in the developing world, espe-cially in parts of Asia and the Pacific region, where fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer applications are rising faster than anywhere inthe world. Deposition is also increasing over Africa and South America, due to biomass burning.4 The effects of rising nitrogendeposition are already being felt in the agriculture sector. For example, researchers in Pakistan found that crops growing in sitesexposed to high ozone levels yielded between 32 and 62 percent less seed than control crops treated with a protective chemical.5

1 Galloway, J.N. et al., “Nitrogen Fixation: Anthropogenic Enhancement-Environmental Response,” Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol.9, No. 2.2 Norwegian Ministry of Environment, State of the Environment Report 1995. (MoE, Oslo, 1995).3 Likens, G.E., C.T. Driscoll and D.C. Buso, “Long-Term Effects of Acid Rain: Response and Recovery of a Forest Ecosystem,”Science, Vol. 272, 12 April 1996, pp. 244-245.4 Galloway, James N., “Anthropogenic Mobilization of Sulphur and Nitrogen: Immediate and Delayed Consequences,” Annual Reviewof Energy and the Environment, 1996. 21: pp. 273-274. 5 “Rampant Urban Pollution Blights Asia’s Crops,” New Scientist, 14 June, 1997.


country reports indicate that nitrates are now oneof the most common chemical contaminants foundin drinking water.

Marine EcosystemsEutrophication of estuarine and coastal zones hasemerged as an immense and growing problem inrecent years. Over 40 million tonnes of nitrogen, indissolved and particulate form, are transported bythe world’s rivers into estuaries and coastal waterseach year – double the pre-industrial rate.28 Unlikefreshwater systems, where phosphorous is usuallythe limiting growth factor, nitrogen is usually thelimiting growth factor in saline waters. Additionalnitrogen can therefore promote huge algal bloomsand significant oxygen depletion (hypoxia) inlower-depth waters. Some of the best-documentedexamples of coastal eutrophication come from theUnited States. According to a recent survey, 52percent of the nation’s estuaries suffer from somedegree of oxygen depletion.29 The worst affectedarea is the Gulf of Mexico, where 85 percent ofestuaries are affected. In the most dramaticexample, a so-called “dead zone” of 16,000-18,000km2 has developed where the Mississippi Riverdischarges into the Gulf. Fish and shrimp havedisappeared from the area, threatening the localfishing industry, while less mobile life-forms, suchas starfish and clams, have died. Scientists havelinked the growth of the dead zone to nitrogen

fertilizers and livestock manure from farmshundreds of miles upstream. More than half the 11million tonnes of nitrogen added to the MississippiBasin annually comes from fertilizer, and onlyabout 50 percent is taken up by plants. Nearly 2million tonnes of nitrogen flow down the Missis-sippi each year, more than triple the amount 40years ago30 and the dead zone has ebbed andflowed consistently with peak river discharges andthe associated nutrient flux.

The Mississippi dead zone is one of more than50 similar oxygen-starved coastal regions whichnow exist world-wide, a threefold increase over thepast 30 years.31 Figure 7 illustrates the increase forthe United States. Since coastal zones are amongthe world’s richest fishing grounds, uncheckedagricultural run-off poses a serious threat tocommercially important fish stocks. Nitrogenpollution is blamed in part for the collapse of theBaltic Sea cod fisheries in the early 1990s,32 aswell as major fish kills (and associated humanillness) following outbreaks of Pfiesteria, such asthat affecting the Chesapeake Bay, in the UnitedStates, in the summer of 1997. Toxic algal blooms,known as “red tides” or “brown tides” are growingworld-wide in frequency and severity, damagingoffshore fisheries and causing losses to aquacul-ture enterprises.33

Figure 7. Major or Recurring Harmful Algal Blooms, Before and After 1972

Source: Donald Anderson, “ Expansion of HAB Problems in the U.S.,” National Office for Marine Biotoxins and Harmful Algal Blooms,Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.


ConclusionsIt is fair to say that, for the past 30-40 years,humans have been “fertilizing the earth” in a global-scale and largely uncontrolled experiment. Agricul-ture, through the use of nitrogen fertilizers, cultiva-tion of leguminous crops, and deposition of animalwastes, is the leading contributor to a doubling ofnatural nitrogen levels in the environment. Localand regional impacts, particularly acidification andeutrophication, have been intensively studied.However, the truly global consequences of theenvironmental imbalances that are being set inmotion currently receive scant attention; far lessthan the risks attending climate change, for ex-ample. Yet, if current trends continue, all thesenitrogen-related problems are likely to worsen, withconsequences as severe and potentially moreimmediate than those associated with globalwarming.

4. Looking Ahead: Growing the FoodWe Need

The world’s population is projected to grow toabout 7.3 billion by 2020, with over 90 percent ofthe increase occurring in developing countries.34

More people will eat more food, and more proteinsince, as already described, people almost invariablychoose diets which are richer in meat and dairyproducts as their incomes rise. This will requiremore cereal to be grown per capita: nearly 40percent of total grain production is already fed tolivestock35 and the grain-to-protein conversionefficiency is low, lying between 2:1 (chickens) and7:1 (feedlot cattle).36 The International Food PolicyResearch Institute has recently projected thatglobal demand for cereals will increase by 41percent between 1993 and 2020, and that meatdemand will rise 63 percent to 306 million tonnes.37

Most projections of agricultural output assumethat demand for food will be met, at least at theglobal level, though regional and local shortages arelikely to persist. A scenario developed by theStockholm Environment Institute forecasts cerealproduction of just over 3 billion tonnes in 2025,38

while the FAO has produced a shorter-term produc-tion forecast of 2.3 billion tonnes in 2010.39 Givencurrent production of just under 2 billion tonnes,

these and other estimates indicate that productionincreases of up to 50 percent will be required overthe next 25-30 years. How will this be achieved?

The scope for expansion of the agriculturalland base is limited. Potentially fertile land stillexists to be opened up for cultivation, but gains willbe partially offset by the loss of productive land tosoil erosion, degradation, and urban development.The FAO suggests that an additional 90 millionhectares of land might be brought into productionby 2010, mostly in South America and Africa,which amounts to a modest increase of barely 6percent on today’s cropland area. This alone willnot be enough to offset the present trends underwhich both available cultivated land area and grainharvest on a per capita basis are declining sharply.In 1984, the grain harvest per person peaked at346 kg; by 1995 it had fallen to 295 kg, the lowestlevel since 1967.40 Given circumstances of a risingpopulation, a growing appetite for meat and dairyfoods, a static or declining cropland base anddeclining per capita cereal production, the impera-tive of increasing yields becomes clear.

Agricultural science has, to date, relied on threemeans of achieving higher yields: genetic improve-ments of crops, advances in agronomic practices,and synergies between the two. As an example ofgenetic improvement, plants have been bred to raisethe share of photosynthetic product going to theseed, rather than to leaves, stems or roots. Today’swheat, rice, and corn have a “harvest index” ofabout 50 per cent, compared with 20 percent beforeimprovement. Further gains appear limited, sincescientists believe the theoretical maximum forphotosynthetic redistribution to the seed is about 60per cent.41 Agronomic practices have focused onincreased levels of external inputs, chiefly fertiliz-ers, but also pest and weed control agents, andwater, delivered by irrigation. Synergies haveoccurred, for example, new dwarf varieties ofcereal, with short stalks, are able to utilize two orthree times the “normal” amount of nitrogen anddevelop rich, heavy heads of grain without collaps-ing. This synergy explains the doubling and triplingof yields achieved during the first phases of theGreen Revolution.


However, scientists have not found it possibleto maintain this momentum, and the rate of yieldgrowth in all major cereals has either plateaued ordeclined over the past decade. It is often arguedthat increased fertilizer application in the develop-ing world will overcome yield stagnation and raiseharvests closer to the theoretical maximum. Morefertilizer will certainly be part of the answer, butinherent environmental constraints, especially waterscarcity, as well as infrastructural and institutionalshortcomings, are likely to prove a greater obstacleto the world-wide advent of “industrial” farming,with its dependence on external inputs.

5. How Much More Fertilizer Will theWorld Consume?

Analysts at the International Fertilizer DevelopmentCenter (IFDC) have made detailed projections offuture fertilizer demand, and come to a problematic

conclusion. Their “real world” projection takes intoaccount various economic and non-economicvariables, such as foreign exchange availability, cropand fertilizer prices, the development of irrigationand other infrastructure, and the impact of policyreforms. On this basis, global consumption offertilizer is projected to rise from 134 million tonnestoday to 208 million tonnes in 2020 (Figure 8). Thestrongest growth is expected in Africa (2.4 percentannually), Latin America (2.2 percent annually),Asia (1.8 percent annually) and Central andEastern Europe (2.2 percent annually). These ratesof increase are far below those experiencedbetween 1960 and 1990, reflecting a higherbaseline, and changed economic and policy envi-ronments. Nitrogen consumption would rise from82 million tonnes to 115 million tonnes, an increaseof about 40 per cent. This projection is comparablewith another recent estimate of 134 million tonnes,which assumes higher growth rates in Africa andLatin America.42

Figure 8. Fertilizer Demand Projections (NPK), 2000 and 2020

Source: Bumb and Baanante, see note 8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

DevelopedCountries

2000

DevelopedCountries

2020

DevelopingCountries

2000

DevelopingCountries

2020

Mill

ion

tonn

es

PotassiumPhosphateNitrogen


This substantial increase might not be enough,however. The IFDC’s second projection is basedon food production needs, that is, the amount offertilizer needed to grow 2.5 billion tonnes of cerealor more. This leads to global fertilizer consumptionin 2020 of 263 million tonnes, and nitrogen con-sumption of some 160 million tonnes (assumingtoday’s NPK ratio does not change). The fertilizer“shortfall” in developing countries might be asmuch as 64 million tonnes. A third projection isbased on “sustainable farming” needs, or theamount of fertilizer needed to maintain nutrientreserves in the soil at their initial levels. Theprojection is based on assumptions about nutrientuptake efficiency for various crops, expectedimprovements by the year 2020 in different worldregions and the proportion of crop residues whichare returned to the soil. Under this scenario,producing enough grain to feed the world, withoutmining the soil of its nutrients, would requireapplication of 366 million tonnes of fertilizer; theproportion of nitrogen would probably decrease butwould still be substantial. The fertilizer shortfall indeveloping countries is estimated at 130 milliontonnes.43

6. Possible SolutionsGlobally, fertilizer consumption must grow, but itmust grow in a far more managed and thoughtfulway than it has over the past 40 years. Theobjective of agriculture in coming decadesmust be to optimize soil productivity while preserv-ing its capacity to function as a healthy, complexecosystem. Fertilizer consumption will remainessential to food security in coming decades, butdisruption of terrestrial and marine ecosystemscould be greatly reduced if greater efforts aremade to control the flows of nitrogen through theenvironment. On the production side, inorganicfertilizers should be priced and regulated more inaccordance with their environmental impacts(removal of perverse incentives) and used moreefficiently (innovative and integrated farmingpractices, new crops, nitrogen recycling). On theconsumption side, the choices we make about dietand the sources of food we buy could, over time,help to reorient the world’s food industry to a less

nitrogen-intensive base.

Economic and Regulatory IncentivesFertilizer use by farmers is too often typified bywasteful and careless practices, which are encour-aged by artificially low product prices. Fertilizersreceive heavy subsidies from governments world-wide, whether at the point of import, or manufac-ture, or supply to farmers. They are justified bygovernments on the grounds of protecting domesticproducers, shielding manufacturing interests fromcompetition, or ensuring national food security.Subsidies have often worked “too well.” Manyareas in the industrialized countries, and some partsof Asia, have already reached the point of diminish-ing returns on fertilizer application, where plants areunable to take up the additional nutrients they aregiven and ecosystems become saturated anddegraded. Over-applying fertilizer represents bothan economic and an environmental waste. Recentresearch has shown that using reduced amounts offertilizer at just the right time can cut costs by up to17 percent for farmers in developing countries, aswell as reducing nutrient losses to the environmentby up to 50 percent.44 At the national level, subsi-dies constitute a heavy burden on the economy.For example, in India, fertilizer subsidies amountedto US$1.4 billion, or 3 percent of the nationalbudget, in 1993-94.45 Low fertilizer prices also tendto inhibit the development of production capacityand of competitive marketing and distributionsystems, which works against the interests offarmers, and to reduce research interest andinvestment in alternative plant nutrient systems.

With the implementation of economic reformprograms in the 1980s, the number of countriessubsidizing fertilizers decreased significantly, but notuniformly. As of 1996, China, India, Indonesia, andSaudi Arabia still provided subsidies, for example,while Ghana, the Philippines, Thailand, and Ven-ezuela did not.46 Experience with energy policy hasshown clearly that pricing policies which begin toincorporate environmental damage into the cost offossil fuels are effective in encouraging moreefficient use and the adoption of alternative energysources. The same is true of fertilizers. The adjust-ment of distorted input prices to market level can


be painful and politically sensitive, however, andhigh fertilizer prices can discourage fertilizer usealtogether, with damaging consequences for foodsecurity. Rational pricing policy must aim toeliminate price distortions over the long term, whilecontinuing to generate adequate incentives forfertilizer use by small farmers. Currently, however,policy in many countries seems to be directedtowards increasing fertilizer application as fast aspossible. The Chinese Academy of AgriculturalSciences, for example, has estimated that thecountry must raise average crop yields per hectareby 60 to 80 percent within the next 30 years, andthat this will require a doubling of current nitrogenapplication rates.47 Rather than pursuing unfetteredgrowth, policies in countries which already tend toover-fertilize should be aiming to optimize agricul-tural production through incentives for responsiblenitrogen management.

Direct regulation is increasingly being used toalter farmers’ behavior in order to reduce environ-mental damage which has already occurred. Itshould be no surprise that nitrogen-related policy inthe industrialized countries is beginning to developalong similar lines to carbon controls, involvingemission ceilings, performance requirements, andincentives/penalties levied on users. Vigorous effortsare now being made in some countries in an attemptto reverse the nitrogen saturation afflicting inten-sively farmed land. The nitrogen fertilizer manage-ment plan of Minnesota, in the United States,recommends that a nitrogen budget based on theresidual nitrogen in the soil, crop uptake, and supplyof nitrogen from all sources should be prepared todevelop more sustainable fertilizer recommenda-tions.48 In northwestern Europe, the problem, andcontrolling actions, are still more advanced. TheEuropean Union Nitrates Directive of 1991(effective from 1999) is framed to control the netsupply of nitrogen (supply minus uptake) to the soil.Planning authorities must take account of emis-sions from all sources, when recommendingfertilizer application levels. It has become clearthat the biggest adjustments must, in fact, comefrom the livestock sector; nitrogen emissions fromanimal manure exceed those from fertilizer by 14to 91 percent in Belgium, Denmark, and the

Netherlands.49 Some individual countries in theregion have gone further, introducing mandatorynutrient accounting schemes under which farmersmust prepare fertilization plans, based on crop,nutrient input and output levels, and admissiblelosses. Fertilization above the agreed level issubject to heavy fines (Germany) or nutrient taxes(the Netherlands). In Denmark, the amount offertilizer that may be applied to each crop isregulated, and 65 percent of the cultivated areamust be covered by a green crop in winter toreduce leaching and run-off.

Efficient Nitrogen Management on the FarmThe efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer use today isvery low. The proportion of nitrogen taken up byplants varies widely with crop, climate conditions,and agricultural practices, but field trials at experi-mental stations indicate plant uptake levels of 50 to70 percent during the fertilizer application season.50

On farms, nitrogen losses can be much greater.Numerous studies indicate that nitrogen loss ratesof between 20 and 50 percent are still common inthe industrialized countries, while nitrogen uptakeby crops in Indian and Chinese rice paddies hasbeen measured at 25 to 30 percent, principallybecause of rapid losses to run-off, erosion orgaseous emissions. Such wastage represent asubstantial economic loss, as well as an environ-mental hazard. Given that over 80 million tonnes ofnitrogen were applied to fields in 1996, a (conser-vative) 50 percent loss at a wholesale price ofUS$0.66 per kg of nitrogen in urea, amounts toUS$26.4 billion.

Improved on-farm practices can significantlyreduce nitrogen pollution. Fertilizer use efficiencyhas been improving in some developed countries,where farmers are being encouraged to plantcover crops in winter, avoid poor cropping prac-tices, and plant “buffer” vegetation between fieldsand water courses to trap nitrogen run-off. In theUnited States, for example, corn production per kgof nitrogen applied increased from 18 kg in 1985 to22 kg in 1995.51 Precision “drilling” application offertilizers is increasingly practised. Similar improve-ments have been achieved in western Europe,where agricultural production has continued to


increase despite reductions in fertilizer use. Furtherimprovements might be expected from morewidespread adoption of slow-release fertilizers andurease inhibitors which can reduce the leaching ofnitrate and/or emissions of nitrous oxide and lossesof ammonia through volatilization. Currently, use ofthese products is inhibited by low prices forconventional fertilizers. Synthetic slow-releasefertilizers are inherently more expensive to manu-facture and only about half a million tonnes areapplied annually world-wide, mostly to high-valuecrops and in non-agricultural sectors such as golfcourses and gardens. Fiscal instruments whichreduce the price differential between slow-releaseand conventional fertilizers could speed marketpenetration by the more efficient product.

In the longer-term, a significant contribution toimproved nitrogen management would seempossible with new crop varieties and changes in theglobal balance of crops cultivated. Bio-engineeredcrops such as wheat and corn which can fix theirown nitrogen could reduce the need for fertilizerapplication. More research is needed to understandthe potential benefits and drawbacks of cultivatingleguminous plants such as alfalfa and soybeans.Currently, legume planting world-wide adds about40 million tonnes to the total amount of nitrogenfixed annually. Legumes are “free” natural fertilizersand their introduction into crop rotations, andploughing of residues back into the soil, if morewidespread, could assist in maintaining soil structureand fertility. Integrated farming practices, whichseek to maximise soil fertility and stable yield gainsthrough crop diversity and adaptability to localconditions will also have a role to play in reducingdependence on high levels of fertilizer application.

In many developing countries, fertilizer applica-tion levels at present are too low to cause significanteutrophication or acidification damage and adifferent policy approach is required. However,while nitrogen saturation might seem a far distantprospect in most of Africa and South America,tropical soils are fragile – often thin and light – andnitrogen is more readily lost to run-off or volatiliza-tion to the atmosphere. The potential for losses andenvironmental damage is therefore high and the

agronomically optimum level of application may belower than in temperate regions.

A priority area of attention should be thecorrection of unbalanced fertilization. Most fertiliz-ers used in the developing world are nitrogen-based, because of their low cost per unit of nutrientand the quick and evident response of the plant.However, increased yields deplete the soil of othermajor and micro-nutrients which are removed withthe harvested crop. These nutrients becomedeficient unless they are replenished. Excessivenitrogen applications, relative to potassium andphosphates, can lead to nutrient “mining” and lossof soil fertility. In many countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, nutrient removal already exceedsnutrient replacement by a factor of three or four.52

Yields can also be reduced due to “lodging” (wherethe crop is unable to support its own weight), andgreater competition from weeds and pest attacks.In much of Asia, rice yield losses of between 20and 50 percent have been recorded as a result ofdisproportionate applications of nitrogen.53 Signifi-cant yield increases could thus be achieved throughthe encouragement of inorganic fertilizers whichprovide a more balanced mix of nitrogen, phos-phates, and potassium.

In many developing areas, however, lack ofaccess to capital, lack of roads and rail links whichcould ensure timely delivery of fertilizers, andinadequate information, are likely to mean that soilscontinue to be gravely under-fertilized. The conceptof managing a global nitrogen cycle helps to illumi-nate the fact that intensive agriculture and highprotein diets are tending to concentrate nitrogen insome parts of the world, while impoverishedfarmers, without fertilizers, burning their cropresidues and animal wastes for fuel, see their soilnutrients disappearing. The trend is accelerated bythe growth of international trade in food, especiallygrains, which redistributes nitrogen from netproducer to net consumer countries.

Economic development and poverty alleviationare the best long-term redress. In the shorter-term,internationally-funded research efforts into alterna-tive methods of plant nutrition and support for


traditional agricultural practices which help tomaintain soil would be well repaid in terms ofenhanced food security, reduced financial losses,and avoided environmental damage. Complemen-tary measures include greater use of organicfertilizers (animal manure, human wastes, cropresidues), applications of lime on the acid soilswhich are typical of tropical regions, alternating thegrowth of shallow-rooted and deep-rooted plants tohold nitrogen in the soil, and the use of croprotations incorporating leguminous plants. Inte-grated plant nutrition systems (IPNSs) could proveimportant in effective management of plantnutrients as an element of broader agriculturaldevelopment. IPNSs are designed to balance thenutrients available to the farmer from all availablesources for their optimal productive use, and tominimize “leakage” of minerals into the widerenvironment.54 Systems are tailored to meet theneeds of specific farming types, yield targets, thephysical resource base, and the farmer’s socio-economic background. Implementing such systemswould involve a formidable improvement in aver-age levels of service to low-income farmers, interms of technical advice, inputs, credit, marketingfacilities, and public investment in agriculture.

The Role of ConsumersThe scope for consumer action initially appearslimited in comparison with that of farmers. Never-theless, three areas of behavior appear especiallyamenable to some change, and evidence of changeis already underway in many industrialized coun-tries. Dietary preferences in the wealthy countriesare again shifting, as consumers’ concern withhealthy eating encourages lower red meat consump-tion. In the United States, for example, per capitaconsumption of beef fell from a high of 89 poundsper year in 1976 to 65 pounds per year in 1996.55

However, this was more than offset by increased

poultry consumption. Interest in environmental andanimal welfare issues is also encouraging vegetari-anism, which is no longer the eccentric lifestylechoice it was a generation ago. According to arecent poll, 5 percent of Americans eat no redmeat and about 1 percent eat no meat, poultry orfish at all.56 Some European figures are higher:over 6 percent of British consumers claim to bevegetarian, as do over 4 percent of the Dutch.57

Evidence that the trend is strengthening can befound in the increased range of vegetarian foodsstocked by mainstream supermarkets and thewider choice of vegetarian meals offered in non-vegetarian restaurants. The minority trendstowards reduced meat consumption, and theselection of meat produced under extensiveconditions, could be reinforced with informationhighlighting the environmental impacts associatedwith intensive livestock farming. Perhaps moreeffectively, higher prices for fertilizers, and emis-sion charges on feedlot operations would translateinto higher meat prices and encourage still greaterselectivity.

Consumers can also contribute substantially to“closing the open loop” which currently allowsnitrogen to be deposited on the land, washed intowater courses and flushed out to sea. A number ofgovernments, at the local and national levels, havenow introduced voluntary or mandatory recyclingschemes for organic (kitchen and garden) wastes,whereby organic material is composted and re-turned as fertilizer to agricultural land rather thanbeing landfilled. Households should also be encour-aged to compost their own waste where feasible.Finally, the use of fertilizers on household lawnsrepresents a small but significant contribution tonitrogen in urban run-off, which could be discour-aged by information campaigns and product taxes.


1. FAOSTAT, Agriculture on-line database.

2. FAOSTAT on-line database (production data).Heilig, Gerhard, K., Lifestyles and Global LandUse Change: Data and Theses. Working PaperWP-95-91 (International Institute for AppliedSystems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, September1995), table 5, p. 16 (harvested area).

3. World Resources Database 1998-99 (on disk),(World Resources Institute, Washington D.C.,1998).

4. Cereals consumed directly account for about halfthe human calorie supply. When consumedindirectly, in the form of animal products, cerealsaccount for approximately two-thirds of caloriesupply.

5. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations, “Food, Agriculture and Food Security:Developments Since the World Food Conferenceand Prospects,” World Food Summit: TechnicalBackground Documents, Vol. 1, Paper 1 (FAO,Rome, 1996). p. viii.

6. Inorganic fertilizers are an industrial product,which chemically synthesize the nutrientsnitrogen (N), phosphorous (P

2O

5) and potassium

(K2O); organic fertilizers comprise animal

manure and human waste, crop residues etc.

7. Isherwood, K.F., Fertilizer Use and theEnvironment, UNEP/IFA Project (InternationalFertilizer Industry Association, IFA, Paris,France). Internet reference: http://www.fertilizer.org/PUBLISH/PUBENV/env7984.htm

8. Bumb, Balu L. and Carlos A. Baanante, The Roleof Fertilizer in Sustaining Food Security andProtecting the Environment to 2020

(International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI), Food, Agriculture and theEnvironment Discussion Paper No. 17, 1996),p. 2.

9. International Fertilizer Industry Association.On-line database, internet reference: http://www.fertilizer.org/STATSIND.

10. Op. Cit. note 8, p. 5.

11. Ibid, p. 9.

12. Op. Cit. note 1.

13. Ibid.

14. Galloway, J.N. et al, “Nitrogen Fixation:Anthropogenic Enhancement-EnvironmentalResponse,” Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol.9, No. 2, figure 1, p. 237.

15. Office of Technology Assessment (OTA),“Technologies to Improve Nutrient and PestManagement,” Beneath the Bottom Line:Agricultural Approaches to ReduceAgrichemical Contamination of Groundwater.Report OTA-F-418 (OTA, U.S. Congress.Washington D.C.,: US Government PrintingOffice, November 1990). Cited in Taylor, DonaldC., Livestock Manure Production andDisposition: South Dakota Feedlots-Farms-Ranches, Economics Research Report 94-4,November 1994, p. 30.

16. Likens, G.E., C.T. Driscoll and D.C. Buso, “Long-Term Effects of Acid Rain: Response andRecovery of a Forest Ecosystem,” Science, Vol.272, 12 April 1996, pp.244-245.

17. Stigliani, W. M. “Chemical Time Bombs,”Options (Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, September

Notes


1991): 9. Cited in Meadows et al, Beyond the Limits(Chelsea Green Publishing Company, Post Mills,Vermont, 1992), p. 130.

18. Kauppi, P.E., K. Mielikainen, and K. Kuusela,“Biomass and Carbon Budget of EuropeanForests, 1971-1990,” Science, Vol.256, 1992,pp. 70-74.

19. “Global Nitrogen Overload Problem GrowsCritical,” Science, Vol. 279, 13 February 1998,pp. 988-989.

20. Bobbink, R., “Effects of Nutrient Enrichment inDutch Chalk Grassland,” Journal of AppliedEcology, 28, 1991, pp. 28-41; Heil, D.W. andW.H. Diemont, “Raised Nutrient Levels ChangeHeathland into Grassland,” Vegetation, 53, 1983,pp. 113-120. Cited in Galloway et al (Op. Cit.note 14), p. 247.

21. Vitousek, Peter M., et al. “Human Alteration ofthe Global Nitrogen Cycle: Causes andConsequences.” Issues in Ecology, No. 1(February 1997).

22. Ayres, R., W. Schlesinger and R. Socolow,“Human Impacts on the Carbon and NitrogenCycles,” Industrial Ecology and Global Change(R. Socolow, C. Andrews, F. Berkhout and V.Thomas, eds., Cambridge University Press,1994), pp. 146, 148.

23. United States Environmental Protection Agency(U.S.EPA), National Water Quality Inventory,1994 Report to Congress, Report No. EPA 841-R-95-005 (U.S. EPA, Washington D.C., 1995).Internet reference: http://www.epa.gov./OW/sec1/profile/index.html.

24. Zhang et al (1995). Cited in Galloway, J.N., D.S.Ojima and J.M. Melillo, “Asian Change in theContext of Global Change: An Overview,” inAsian Change in the Context of Global ClimateChange, J. Galloway and J. Melillo, Editors(Cambridge University Press, 1998).



27. Getting the Nitrate Out, Electric Power ResearchInstitute (EPRI) Journal, Vol. 23, No. 3 May/June998, pp. 18-23.

28. Op. Cit. note 14, p. 245.

29. National Oceanographic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA) (1997), NationalEstuarine Eutrophication Survey.

30. “Death by Suffocation in the Gulf of Mexico,”Science, Vol 281, 10 July, 1998, pp. 190-192.

31. Ibid.

32. “Global Nitrogen Overload Problem GrowsCritical,” Science, Vol. 279, 13 February, 1998,pp. 988-989.

33. Paerl, H.W., “Emerging Role of AtmosphericNitrogen Deposition in Coastal Eutrophication:Biogeochemical and Trophic Perspectives,”Canadian Journal of Fisheries and AquaticScience 50: 1993, pp. 2254-2269. Cited inCharles H. Peterson and Jane Lubchenco, “Marine Ecosystem Services,” Nature’s Services,ed. G. Daily (Island Press, Washington D.C., 1997)p. 182.

34. United Nations Population Division, WorldPopulation Prospects: the 1996 Revision (UN,New York, 1997).

35. World Resources Institute, World ResourcesReport 1998-99, Data Table 10.3 (WRI,Washington D.C., 1998), p.288.

36. Brown, Lester R., Tough Choices: Facing theChallenge of Food Security (WorldwatchInstitute, Washington D.C., 1996), p. 57.

37. Pinstrup-Andersen, Per, Mark Rosegrant and RajulPandya-Lorch, The World Food Situation: RecentDevelopments, Emerging Issues and Long-TermProspects (International Food Policy ResearchInstitute, Washington D.C., 1997).

38. Leach, G., Global Land and Food Supply in the21st Century (Stockholm, Stockholm EnvironmentInstitute, 1995).


39. Alexandratos, Nikos, ed. World Agriculture:Towards 2010, An FAO Study (Chichester, UnitedKingdom, John Wiley and Sons, and Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations,Rome, 1995).

40. Op. Cit. note 36, p. 36.

41. Brown, Lester, “Struggling to Raise CroplandProductivity,” State of the World 1998(Worldwatch Institute, Washington D.C., 1998),p. 82.

42. Op. Cit. note 14, p. 248.

43. Op. Cit. note 8, pp. 19-20.

44. Matson, P.A., R. Naylor, and I. Ortiz-Monasterio,“Integration of Environmental, Agronomic andEconomic Aspects of Fertilizer Management,”Science, Vol. 280, 3 April, 1998, pp. 112-114.

45. Op. Cit. note 8, p. 26.

46. Ibid, p. 26.

47. Report of the Chinese Academy of AgriculturalSciences (CAAS), December 1996. Cited inIsherwood, Op. Cit. note 7.

48. Nitrogen Fertilizer Task Force, The NitrogenFertilizer Management Plan, St Paul, Minn., USA:Minnesota Department of Agriculture, 1990. Citedin Bumb and Baanante, Op. Cit. note 8, p. 39.

49. Op. Cit. note 8, p. 39.

50. Finck, A., World Fertilizer Use Manual(International Fertilizer Industry Association,Paris, 1992).


52. Bumb, Balu L., and Carlos A. Baanante, Policies toPromote Environmentally Sustainable FertilizerUse and Supply to 2020 (International FoodPolicy Research Institute, 2020 Brief No. 40,October 1996), p. 1.


54. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations, Food Production and EnvironmentalImpact, Technical Background Document No. 11(FAO, World Food Summit, 13-17 November1996, Rome), pp. 24-25.

55. United States Department of Agriculture statistics,cited in Feedstuffs, November 6, 1995, p. 28.

56. “How Many Vegetarians Are There?”, 1997 Roperpoll conducted for the Vegetarian Resource Group.Vegetarian Journal, September/October 1997,Volume XVI, No. 5.

57. International Vegetarian Union, IVU Newsletter,October, 1995.

WOOD FIBER CONSUMPTION AND THE WORLD’S FORESTS 31

1. Global Forestry and the ForestProducts Sector

Wood fiber is one of our most important rawmaterials. Forests, woodlands and scattered treessupply wood for a huge range of human needs,from cooking fuel and housing to railway sleepers,furniture, and newspapers. In 1997, the worldconsumed a total of 3.4 billion cubic meters ofwood, of which more than half (about 1.9 billionm3) was burned as fuel.1 The other broad categoryof use was as industrial roundwood, which com-prises logs and sawnwood for construction (about26 percent of total wood consumption), processedwood products such as veneers, chipboard andplywood (about 9 percent), and pulp for paper-making (about 11 percent). This last figure issupplemented by the re-use of wood manufactur-ing residues like sawdust and chippings.2

In the early 1990s, production and manufac-ture of wood products contributed about $US 400billion to the global economy, or about 2 percentof global GDP.3 This omits the uncounted value offuelwood, which is barely included in nationalenergy accounts but nevertheless underpins manyrural economies. In the last three decades, interna-tional trade in forest products has increasedroughly threefold in terms of value, adjusted forinflation, and now accounts for 3 percent of worldtrade. The greatest increases in trade have been inwood-based panels, and paper and paperboard, asmany developing countries have reduced theirexports of logs and instead developed their ownprocessing capacity. At the global level, about onequarter of all production of sawnwood, wood-based panels, paper and paperboard now entersinternational trade, compared with 12-17 percentin 1961.4

Forests are also the source of a wide range of“non-wood products” including medicinal plants,nuts, fruits, mushrooms, and other edible plants.Many of these products never enter a formalmarket and their monetary value world-wide ishard to assess, but it is likely to be considerable.In the Pacific Northwest of North America, forexample, wild greens, Christmas boughs, andfloral decorations contributed some $US 130million to the regional economy in 1989.5 A surveyof 24 studies of the value of non-wood products intropical countries reported a median per hectarevalue of $US50; however, the studies tended not totake into account the costs of extraction, or todistinguish between extraction from natural forestsand harvesting from agro-forestry.6 In many cases,the greater value of non-wood forest products maylie in their contribution to supporting indigenouslivelihoods and cultures.

The global forestry industry has traditionallyconcerned itself with the production of wood andwood products. However, the agenda has changedconsiderably over the past 20 years, under pres-sure from public dissatisfaction with forestmanagement practices, growing understanding ofthe numerous ecological services performed byforests, and greater concern for the rights ofpeople who live in, or around, forests and wholook to them to supply a wide variety of economic,social and even spiritual needs. The amenity valueof forests, which includes their use for tourismand recreational activities and, more intangibly,their ability to add beauty to a landscape andprovide a peaceful refuge from urban life, is alsohard to quantify, but has become impossible forforest managers to ignore in most industrializedcountries.

II. Wood Fiber Consumption and theWorld’s Forests


2. Where Does Our Wood Come From?

Industrial RoundwoodThe three main sources of industrial wood supplyare old-growth (“virgin”) forests, secondary-growth forests, and plantations.

• Large tracts of old-growth forest are still found ina number of regions, including Russia andCanada, the Amazon Basin, and parts of othercountries with tropical rainforest.

• Secondary-growth forests are natural forestswhich have been cut but have regrown, or beenpartially replanted, and are now managed more orless intensively for wood production. Secondary-growth forests have replaced virtually all theoriginal forests of eastern North America (includ-ing most of the United States), Europe, and largeparts of South America and Asia.

• Plantations are generally defined according to theextent of human intervention in a forest’sestablishment and/or management. Because thereis an extensive range of silvicultural practicesapplied in intensive forest management, thedifference between a semi-natural and plantationforest is essentially arbitrary. This is especiallythe case in parts of Europe, the United States, andChina. In tropical and sub-tropical countries,plantations are usually more easily identifiable,since they tend to have been established relativelyrecently or because they consist of fast-growingand often exotic (non-native) species. Nearly halfthe world’s plantations are found in Asia. Theformer Soviet Union, and North and CentralAmerica account for another 30 percent.

It is estimated that industrial wood plantationscurrently provide nearly 25 percent of the world’sindustrial roundwood supply;7 there are no reliablebreakdowns, at global level, of the proportionscoming from old-growth and semi-natural forests.

WoodfuelsDespite the importance of wood as an energysource in developing countries, it is still rarelyconsidered by policy-makers who often regard itsuse as backward and unimportant. Relatively littleeffort has gone into collection and analysis ofstatistics. Information on sources of fuelwood and

charcoal (known collectively as woodfuel) istherefore limited and of poor quality. It may be thecase that the majority of woodfuel – perhaps morethan 50 percent in many countries – comes fromoutside forest areas.8 Non-forest sources includelogging and wood industry residues, agro-industryresidues (for example, from rubber and oil palmplantations), sparsely wooded and brush land,roadside vegetation, gardens, and communitywood lots. Fuelwood plantations provide only anestimated 4.4 percent of supply world-wide,9

though they assume greater importance in parts ofChina, India, and South America. In industrializedcountries, wood energy is supplied primarily fromwood industry residues.

Major Producers and ConsumersThree major world regions, North America,Europe, and Asia, dominate the market in indus-trial wood products. North America alone accountsfor about 40 percent of both production andconsumption. The industrialized countries tradeextensively with each other and, as a whole, (withthe major exception of Japan) are largely self-sufficient in softwood fiber. Consumption in Asia isrising dramatically, and the region is now a netimporter of wood products, especially pulp forpaper-making. At present, the richly forestedcountries of Brazil and the Russian Federation,which between them account for some 38 percentof the world’s forested area, produce only about 5and 8 percent respectively of all industrial round-wood, and they consume even less (Figure 1).

Production and consumption of fuelwood andcharcoal is concentrated in the developing world,with five countries – India, China, Brazil, Indone-sia, and Nigeria – accounting for about 50 percentof the total.10 (Since international trade inwoodfuels is almost non-existent, national leveldata on production and consumption are consid-ered here to be one and the same.) In developingcountries, consumption of industrial roundwood isrising rapidly with economic development.Booming construction sectors in industrializingcountries require sawnwood, and rising literacylevels among the public are stimulating demandfor pulp and paper, though per capita consumption


levels remain very low by Western standards.Production and export of tropical wood products,such as plywoods and veneers, have also growntwo- to threefold in the last 30 years.11 World-wide, the rate of increase in production of industrialhardwoods has exceeded that for production of soft-woods; these differential trends reflect a shift of thetimber production base towards the developingcountries, and towards the tropical countries inparticular.

3. Key Trends in Wood Fiber Productionand Consumption

Between 1961 and 1997, global consumption ofindustrial roundwood grew by 48 percent, whileglobal consumption of woodfuels rose by nearly 80percent.12 It should be noted that woodfuelconsumption data are modelled estimates based onlimited consumption survey data and populationgrowth rates. The principal factors involved in risingdemand are population numbers and economicgrowth, but the interplay between the two driversis far from simple. Over time, patterns of consumption

have shifted significantly, between woodfuels andindustrial roundwood, and among different indus-trial wood products.

Demand for fuelwood and charcoal is drivenprimarily by rising numbers of rural poor, who aredependent on wood for their cooking and heatingneeds (Figure 2). Charcoal, often consumed in theform of briquettes, is an important fuel among theurban poor, whose numbers are expanding rapidly,and is an industrial energy source in some LatinAmerican countries. Increasing prosperity, oftenaccompanied by urbanization, encourages aswitch to commercial fuels such as kerosene.Therefore, demand for fuelwood and charcoalshould be inversely related to income growth.Rapid economic growth in many developingcountries has brought about just such a shift formillions of people; however, rapid populationgrowth and unequal distribution of wealth hasmeant that demand for traditional woodfuels hasremained high.

Source: FAOSTAT

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Figure 1. Total Roundwood Production and Consumption, 1994


Demand for industrial roundwood, by contrast,is directly related to income. The bulk of industrialroundwood production and consumption remainsconcentrated in the wealthy countries of theOECD, though consumption in the region islevelling off, due to saturation of demand for someproducts (such as lumber for construction) and theuse of more efficient technologies (Figure 3).However, these declines are partially offset bystrong demand for paper and some hardwoodproducts, which continues to rise broadly in linewith GDP. Industrial roundwood consumption isrising fastest in the rapidly growing economies ofAsia and Latin America.

Of all industrial roundwood products, paperand paperboard are growing the most rapidly(Figure 4). Globally, paper consumption hasincreased by a factor of 20 this century, and hasmore than tripled over the past 30 years.13 Inaddition to the traditional products of newspapers,books, magazines, and printing/writing paper,consumption is kept buoyant by a new world ofmail order catalogues, marketing and promotional

materials, “junk mail,” and household and sanitarypapers, which has developed over recent decades.The advent of computers and other electronicequipment has actually fuelled demand and the“paperless office” remains a distant prospect.Personal computers alone are estimated to con-sume over l15 billion sheets of paper annually.14

Communications, however, account for less thanhalf of the world’s paper use; a bigger shareis now taken by the booming packaging industry.15

In the developing world, paper consumption isgrowing very rapidly, at over 7 percent annuallybetween 1980 and 1994, but average per capitaconsumption remains low at about 15 kg/year.16

This is well below the 30-40 kg of paper consid-ered the minimum necessary to meet basic needsfor communication and literacy.17 However, totalpaper and paperboard consumption in Asia alreadyexceeds that of Europe, and is projected to grow ata rate of nearly 4 percent a year till 2010, when theregion will be the biggest paper consumer in theworld.18

Figure 2. Global Woodfuel Consumption, 1961-1997

Source: FAOSTAT

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4. Wood Fiber Consumption andEnvironmental Impacts

The primary cause of annual tropical deforestationworld-wide is clearance for agriculture.19 How-ever, as a recent report by the World ResourcesInstitute makes clear, it is logging which poses themost serious risk to the great “frontier forests,”that is, the old-growth forests which remainecologically intact over significant areas.20 Onceforests have been opened up by logging operations,agriculture and settlement swiftly follow.

Population growth and the advent of a globalmarket have caused the pattern of conversion offorests to agriculture, settlement, logging, andexport growth to be replicated globally and atmuch greater speed than in the past. Despite newplanting, net deforestation continues today at therate of about 12 million hectares annually.21 Figure5 summarizes the net deforestation/afforestationrate on a regional basis between 1980 and 1995.

Losses of forest area have been greatest in thetropical countries. Between 1960 and 1990, some450 million hectares were cleared – a fifth of theworld’s entire tropical forest cover.22 An estimatedone-third of this loss was due to logging.

Numerous environmental impacts flow fromthe removal of forest cover. Though the environ-mental services provided by forests are neitherfully understood nor valued, they are known toinclude: protection of soil and water resources;support to agricultural productivity andsustainability, especially by slowing desertifica-tion and resource degradation in arid and semi-arid lands; and protection of coastal areas andfisheries. These services are provided at the localand regional levels. Globally, forests play animportant role in climate regulation, through theircapacity to store carbon, and they provide theworld’s richest habitats for biodiversity.

Figure 3. Global Industrial Roundwood Production, 1961-1997

Source: FAOSTATNote: The drop in industrial roundwood consumption after 1990 is due to collapsing demand in the formerSoviet Union and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe

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Soil and Water ProtectionForests in upland water catchment areas stabilizesoil on sloping land by breaking the impact offalling rain and binding soil structure in theirextensive root systems. Forests also regulatewater flow by soaking up moisture and releasing itin a controlled, regular supply. Deforestation oftendisrupts the hydrological cycle, causing year-roundwater flows in downstream areas to be replacedby destructive flood and drought regimes. Waterthat has not passed through the slow forest “filtra-tion” process also tends to be more impure;drinking water supplies for downstream communi-ties then require additional treatment. In addition,irregular water flows seriously disrupt supplies tourban populations and irrigated farmland.Bangkok, for example, derives about one-third ofits water from one river, which rises in mountains1200 kilometers away from the city. Deforestationand erratic water flow have forced the city todepend more on groundwater supplies. Over-pumping from these wells, in turn, is causingthe city to subside at a rate of 5-10 centimeters

per year.23

Soil erosion rates increase sharply with logging,though removal of ground cover, rather thancanopy cover, appears to be the chief determinantof erosion. According to a summary of 80 erosionstudies, erosion rates under slash-and-burn agricul-ture in the tropics are 10 times higher than innatural forest. In plantations where weeds and leaflitter have been removed, erosion is more than 100times as great as in natural forest.24 In manycases, erosion may result from road constructionassociated with logging in the forest, rather thanfrom the loss of trees. A study of Palawan, in thePhilippines, found that erosion rates increasedfourfold as a result of logging, but the conversionof uncut forest to road surface increased erosionby a factor of 260. Roads accounted for only 3percent of the area studied but for an estimated 84percent of surface erosion.25 Even in more temper-ate regions, deforestation has increased the rate ofmudslides and landslips. In the Pacific Northwestof the United States, many hundreds of landslips

Source: FAOSTAT

Figure 4. Global Consumption of Paper and Paperboard, 1970-1997

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now occur annually; one recent study claimed that94 percent of such slips resulted from clear cutsand logging roads.26

In addition to the lost fertility of eroded landsand damage from mudslides, soil washed away inwatercourses adds tremendously to the sedimentburden carried by major rivers. Siltation in theGanges River system, for example, is causingsome riverbeds to rise at the rate of nearly half ameter a year.27 Shallower rivers, together withuncontrolled run-off after heavy rain, increasewater flow rates and the risk of flooding. India,Bangladesh, and China have experienced recentdevastating floods, causing thousands of deathsand losses of billions of dollars in agricultural andproperty damage. Following the 1998 floods alongChina’s Yangtze River, the Chinese Governmentbanned further logging in the upper reaches of thisand other major rivers and promised tree-plantingprograms on a massive scale. The mountainouswestern parts of Sichuan, Yunnan, and GansuProvinces were about 20 percent forested in 1950;

logging and agricultural expansion have sincereduced forest cover by half and much of whatremains is slowly recovering secondary-growthforests or plantations, which are less effective inconserving soil and water.28

Sedimentation is also a growing problem forsome of the world’s major dams and reservoirs.The Mangla and Tarbela dams in Pakistan, theAmbuklao dam in the Philippines, and the PozaHonda Reservoir in Ecuador, are all receiving somuch silt from deforested catchment areas thattheir operational lives are being reduced by 40 to50 percent or more.29 The final downstreamimpact of sedimentation is damage to coastalhabitats and fisheries. Coral reefs and mangrovesare prone to “smothering” by silt, which reducestheir capacity to support spawning and adult fishpopulations. Reduced catches have been reportedin a number of tropical countries including thePhilippines, where coral reefs supply about 10percent of the country’s commercial and subsis-tence fish harvest. Siltation is also blamed for

Figure 5. Comparison of 1980 and 1995 Forest Areas

Source: State of the World’s Forests 1997, based on figure 4, p. 17.

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damage to salmon spawning runs in the PacificNorthwest of North America.

Climate RegulationAt continental and regional scales, large tracts offorest help to regulate rainfall. Research indicatesthat between 50 percent and 80 percent of themoisture in Amazonia is “held” in the region by itsforest. That is, water is constantly recycledbetween plants and the atmosphere, where itgathers in storm clouds before being precipitatedback onto the forest.30

Forests also play a major role in regulating theglobal climate. The observed warming of earth’satmosphere is generally attributed to increasedconcentrations of greenhouse gases, of which themost important is carbon dioxide (CO

2). The

vegetation and soils of the world’s forests lock uphuge quantities of carbon – more than the totalcontained in the atmosphere – and serve as “sinks”for much of the carbon emitted by fossil fuelcombustion and other human actions. Around halfof forest carbon is located in boreal forests, andover one-third in tropical forests. Siberia’s forestsalone absorb an estimated 10 percent of humancarbon emissions annually.31 However, deforesta-tion, burning, and forest degradation in the tropicsare responsible for releasing approximately 1.6billion tonnes of carbon per year, more than 20percent of all anthropogenic carbon emissions.32

Only partially offsetting this, forest expansion andgrowth in the temperate regions sequester approxi-mately 0.7 billion tonnes of carbon. Surprising asit may seem, therefore, the world’s forests todayare a net source of carbon.33

Further deforestation will both reduce avail-able carbon sinks and contribute to carbon emis-sions, as well as other greenhouse gas emissionsassociated with burning biomass. The threat is notconfined to the tropics. Clear-cut logging andburning in the boreal forests of Siberia havedestroyed over 250,000 square kilometers in recentyears and it is believed that, between 1988 and1993, the region switched from being a net carbonsink to a net carbon source.34 If such patterns ofexploitation could be checked world-wide, the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has suggested that the conservation andregeneration of forests, especially in the tropics,could offset between 12 and 15 percent of pro-jected CO

2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion

to the year 2050.35

BiodiversityThe earth’s genes, species, and ecosystems are theproduct of over 3 billion years of evolution, andare the basis for the survival of the human species.Approximately 1.7 million species have now beencatalogued: numbers are relatively precise forbirds and mammals but, for the vast majority ofgroups, numbers remain unknown. Estimates ofthe earth’s total species count range between 5 and30 million. Such diversity is valuable becausefuture practical uses and values are unpredictable,because variety is inherently interesting andattractive, and because our understanding ofecosystems is insufficient to be sure of the impactof removing any component.

What is known with reasonable confidence isthat forests provide habitat for about two-thirds ofall species on earth.36 Tropical rainforests are themost biologically diverse ecosystems, harboringperhaps half of all known plant and animal spe-cies.37 Temperate forests also provide rich andimportant habitats. In the United States, forexample, forest ecosystems may be home to morethan 50 percent of the country’s terrestrial spe-cies.38 A written record of animal extinctions hasbeen maintained since at least 1600, demonstratingthe impact of human activities upon, first, islandspecies and, increasingly, continental species.Numbers are inexact, but it must be presumed thatthe actual number of extinctions is greater thanindicated, simply because the vast majority ofspecies are unrecorded. Loss and fragmentation offorest area, and simplification of forest ecosys-tems under intensive management regimes, haveled to numerous species extinctions and reducedgenetic diversity in other species through reducedpopulation size. This kind of broad-based destruc-tion of biodiversity differs markedly from earlierextinctions, which were largely confined tomegafauna, the large mammalian species who


projections of future demand are sometimes basedon estimates of how much wood will actually beavailable for consumption; others consider howmuch people would consume if all their needswere fully met. As a result, projections of globalwoodfuel consumption in 2010 range from justunder 2 billion m3 to 4.25 billion m3. (1997 con-sumption was 1.9 billion m3.)

Industrial RoundwoodDifferences in the outlook for industrial round-wood are also common, given different assump-tions about economic growth, fiber prices, andavailable technologies. A number of long-termscenarios serve to show the powerful effect ofprices. Higher fiber prices lead to significantlylower industrial roundwood consumption,whereas a projection of constant per capitaconsumption at 1990 levels, without any priceincreases, produces a more than 50 percent rise inconsumption by 2050. Projections of globalindustrial roundwood consumption in 2010 rangefrom about 1.8 billion m3 to about 2.1 billion m3.(1997 consumption was 1.5 billion m3.)

Total RoundwoodAll the studies reviewed in this paper concludethat consumption of both woodfuels and industrialroundwood will increase, though the estimates ofoverall rate of increase vary from well under 1percent per year to nearly 2 percent per year.Today’s total wood harvest stands at 3.4 billionm3. Total wood consumption in 2010 is likely tobe somewhere between 3.6 and 6.3 billion m3,with 4.6 billion m3 being the mean projection. It istherefore obvious that, if consumption rises in linewith even the more conservative projections, theworld’s forests, woods and shrublands areas willbe required to provide more timber and fuel froma shrinking area.

At the regional level, differing levels ofpopulation and economic growth will lead to verydifferent supply and demand situations. Europeand Scandinavia, for example, appear relativelysecure. Asia, on the other hand, is facing asignificant shortfall in wood supply, despite havingthe world’s fastest rate of increase in local pro-

represented our closest competitors, or individualspecies prized for their meat or fur.

Given what is known about documentedspecies’ density and endemism, the world’sleading biologists have attempted to infer rates ofspecies extinction from various human activities.Estimates of losses of total global species perdecade due to deforestation range from 5 to 9percent. Projections of species loss, extrapolated tothe point of total loss or conversion of forestedareas, indicate that between 15 and 50 percent ofthe world’s biodiversity would become extinct.39

ConclusionThe unprecedented scale and rate of deforestationand human-induced changes to forests is leadingto the loss of immensely valuable ecosystemservices. Soil conservation, flood control, provi-sion of clean water, climate regulation, andmaintenance of biodiversity are fundamental tohuman activity. Unlike goods and services tradedin the market, they are assigned no monetaryvalues, or none which are widely accepted.40 Yetthese services cannot easily be substituted byhuman ingenuity and, even where substitution ispossible, the economic costs are likely to proveprohibitive for many countries.

5. Looking Ahead: How Much MoreWood Fiber Will the World Need?

During the 1990s, a variety of studies estimatingfuture wood fiber demand have been carried outby research organizations and the forest productsindustry, most focusing on the next 15 to 20 years.This section draws on some of these studies,41 aswell as the recent Global Fiber Supply Modeldeveloped by the FAO,42 and a quantitative,scenario-based consumption model developed bythe European Forest Research Institute,43 both ofwhich take a longer-term view.

Fuelwood and CharcoalPublished woodfuel consumption data are basedlargely on estimates and are highly uncertain. It isnot known with any accuracy how much woodfuelpeople consume, nor where it comes from. Equally,


duction of wood fiber. The region has alreadysurpassed Europe in industrial roundwood, fiber,paper and paperboard consumption, and is begin-ning to approach North American consumptionlevels of other products.44 The greatest uncertain-ties concern demand and sources of supply forwoodfuels. At the global scale, talk of a “fuelwoodcrisis” is probably exaggerated, but shortages maybecome critical in some parts of Africa and Asia.

Those studies which have looked specificallyat both supply and demand forecast “hypotheticalgaps” between global fiber demand and availabil-ity of between 400 million and nearly 800 millionm3 by 2010. While gaps, in practice, are closed bymarket forces, they are an indicator of possibledislocation in markets and pressure to changepolicies. While most studies do not explicitly warnof an impending crisis of fiber supply, theysuggest that “more active management” of theworld’s forests is a likely and necessary develop-ment in order to ensure availability of bothcommodities and services. What might this meanin practice?

6. How Much More Fiber Can the EarthProvide?

Relatively little analytical work has been carriedout on future availability of woodfuels. Someforecasts are based on projections of past con-sumption trends, which are themselves supply-driven. Consumption estimates therefore tend tobe used as production estimates. This approachprobably underestimates both real productionlevels (one study claims that fuelwood collectionin India is ten times greater than officially re-ported)45 and real future needs. Bearing theseshortcomings in mind, various estimates of globalfuelwood and charcoal availability in 2010 rangearound the 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion m3 mark.46

These figures represent a 30 percent increase ontoday’s harvest level, but still barely meet, or fallshort of, estimated consumption levels in 2010: 2.4billion m3 (FAO), 3.1 billion m3 (World Bank) and4.3 billion m3 (Nilsson). The picture is brightenedby growing awareness that non-forest areas are animportant source of woodfuels, and that various

“doom scenarios” under which biomass-dependentcountries would lose all their forests to fuelwoodcollection have not come to pass.47

Since the market takes more interest inindustrial wood than fuelwood availability,forestry experts have produced a range of esti-mates concerning future industrial wood supplies.Many of these recent estimates have been harmo-nized by Sten Nilsson in an attempt to provide acomprehensive picture of industrial fiber availabil-ity over the next two to three decades (Table 1).There is a surprisingly large range among theestimates. Partly, this is due to insufficient inven-tory information. Partly, there are uncertaintiessurrounding the speed and extent of economicrecovery in Russia’s forestry sector. There are stillgreater uncertainties concerning how changingvalues in society will affect the utilization offorests, particularly those which are still largelyundisturbed. For example, between 1970 and1990, the total forest area placed under legalprotection for conservation purposes increased bynearly 140 percent, to some 12 million hectares.48

The total availability of industrial roundwood in2010 is thus estimated to be somewhere between1.5 and 2.0 billion m3, the latter figure representinga more than 30 percent increase over today’sharvest levels.

7. Where Might The “Extra 30 Percent”Come From?

The main sources of wood fiber supply, as alreadydescribed, are old-growth forests, managedsecondary-growth forests, and plantations. Impor-tant additional sources of fiber are recovered woodwastes from wood processing industries and – forpulp and paper-making – non-wood fibers such asstraw and recycled fiber obtained from wastepaper. This section examines the potential supplyfrom all these sources.

ForestsThe world’s old- and secondary-growth forestscover some 3.2 billion hectares (excluding somecountries with very minor forest cover). However,the area available for wood supply under current


market conditions is much less – approximately 48percent of the total. “Unavailable” forest area isdefined by the FAO as that which is legallyprotected, or which is currently considered eco-nomically or physically inaccessible. Of the areaavailable for wood supply, at least 44 percent isestimated to be undisturbed by man.

Figure 6 shows the regional distribution of theworld’s forests (excluding plantations), the areacurrently unavailable for wood production and, ofthe available area, the proportions which arealready disturbed or still undisturbed by man. Ifrecent consumption trends are anything to go by,the strongest demand will be for softwood fiber,for pulp and paper-making. Production of tropicalhardwood products such as panels and veneers hasalso risen strongly. However, there is someevidence of a shift towards composite panels andaway from veneer-based panels which, togetherwith relative price changes, technology, andconsumer concerns over tropical deforestation,may combine to reduce demand in future. Over-all, however, rising fiber demand, leading tohigher fiber prices, can be expected to result inmore intensive management of existing availableforest area, and in more currently inaccessibleforests being opened up for development.

Two important environmental constraintsexist to raising production from currently avail-able forest area. One is ongoing deforestation. Anumber of recent studies have analyzed currentdeforestation rates, and the external parameterslikely to influence future deforestation patterns inselected tropical countries, such as populationgrowth, urbanization, agricultural trends, expan-sion of cash crops, development of infrastruc-ture, and changes in land-holding and usepatterns. Outcomes vary in different countriesbut, overall, accumulated tropical forest lossesare expected to amount to an additional 550 to650 million hectares between 1995 and 2045,unless new and additional policy measures aretaken against deforestation.49

The second constraint is the advent of moreenvironmentally and socially sensitive forestrypractices. In most of the industrialized countries,public concerns over environmental damagecaused by clear-cutting, loss of biodiversity, andthe low aesthetic and amenity value of heavilymanaged forests and plantations, have forced aradical re-think of management objectives in theforestry sector. Demand for “non-wood” ser-vices such as recreation and nature conservationhas risen dramatically since the early 1980s50

and similar concerns may be expected to arise in

19931 2010 2020

Softwood Hardwood Softwood Hardwood Softwood HardwoodCanada 165.3 7.9 127-158 38-50 135-162 42-55USA 285.8 116.7 245-289 117-140 265-317 125-155Latin America 63.6 67.4 85-100 89-118 105-110 105-120Africa 10.2 49.4 12-16 54-59 14-16 57-65Oceania 23.6 13.3 33-41 17-18 53-58 19-21China 63.3 35.5 50-60 30-35 53-60 32-40Japan 18.8 6.8 20-55 8-9 22-55 9-10Other Asia 2.0 133.2 14-16 65-124 16-19 65-129Russia 86.2 31.7 130-194 30-70 175-235 30-80Eastern Europe2 48.0 32.7 59-64 47-52 61-66 49-53Western Europe 78.1 35.8 86-108 39-56 91-113 41-58Scandinavia 85.0 9.6 89-108 11-14 89-116 12-15World 939.9 540.0 950-1209 545-745 1079-1327 586-801

Grand Total 1479.9 1495-1954 1665-2128

Source: Nilsson (note 46).1 1993 figures based on estimated actual production2 includes the European countries of the former USSR

Table 1. Estimated Global Availability of Industrial Roundwood: Range of Projections(million cubic meters)


those developing countries with fast-growingeconomies and an influential middle class. Quanti-fying the impacts of environmental and socialconsiderations on future forest productivity isproblematic, but they could be considerable. Asone example, the adoption of “ecosystem man-agement” and application of the EndangeredSpecies Act in the United States have reducedannual timber harvests from federal lands fromabout 50 million m3 to less than 20 million m3.51

Given this situation, the huge economically“unavailable” forest resources of the Pacific Basincountries, including those of the Russian Far Eastand Latin America, are likely to be at the frontline of the world supply/demand equation for theforeseeable future. As Table 1 above makes clear,these are the only regions where serious expan-sion of production looks feasible. Russia containsover 90 percent of Eastern European coniferproduction forests, and Brazil has nearly 70percent of Latin America’s hardwood productionforest. According to a recent report by the World

Resources Institute, these are the forests whichare most immediately at risk if rising prices makethem more economically accessible.52 Clearly,much of the additional fiber that the world willneed could come from natural forests, but at aheavy environmental price.

PlantationsAccording to many forestry experts, the need forfurther exploitation of natural forests could begreatly reduced by expanding production fromindustrial wood plantations. Already, in Oceania,78 percent of industrial wood is estimated to besourced from plantations. Both Africa and Asiaare also estimated to have more than 40 percent ofindustrial wood sourced from plantations.53 Planta-tion yield data, at the global level, are both scarceand imprecise, but plantation productivity appearsgenerally higher than that of natural forests.Eucalyptus growth rates of 25 cubic meters perhectare per year are not uncommon in SouthAmerica, while trial plots in Brazil have recorded

Figure 6. Natural Forest Area and Availability for Wood Production

Source: FAO, Global Fiber Supply Model Note: “Natural” forest refers to both old-growth and managed, secondary-growth forests

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

CentralAmerica

Oceania Europe Africa Asia NorthAmerica

Russia SouthAmerica

Mill

ion

hect

ares

Not available

Disturbed

Undisturbed


growth rates of 100 cubic meters per hectare peryear. Plantations in the tropics are more productivethan those in temperate regions, and are forecastto grow significantly in extent and productivity. A1995 study estimates that growth in industrialforest plantations in Latin America alone couldincrease the global fiber supply by more than 100million m3 in 2010.54 Even more ambitiously, theFAO estimates that the current plantation area of55 million hectares in the southern regions has apotential annual growth of 1.1 billion m3. In theory,the world’s total current demand for industrialroundwood could be met from plantations on 0.15billion hectares of land, equivalent to just 4 percentof global forest area (assuming average growthrates of 10 cubic meters per hectare per year).55

However, these exciting scenarios should betempered by awareness of a growing number ofstudies which suggest that forest plantations aregenerally yielding below expectations and that bothcurrent and projected yields may have been greatlyexaggerated in some cases. Juvenile tree mortalityrates in tropical countries are often high (up to 70percent). Low national planting success rates havebeen reported for several countries including thePhilippines (26 percent), Laos (47 percent), andColombia (57 percent). Sometimes, managementand technical factors appear responsible: forexample, large-scale plantations have often beenstarted based on small-scale experiments, produc-tion costs are under-estimated, and the enterprisesfail. In other cases, the environmental toll taken byfast-growing, non-native commercial species,which are often grown in relatively fragile soils,has been overlooked. It is known that eucalyptusplantations, in particular, are prone to “sulking”(decreased growth). It seems probable that morecareful site selection, soil management techniques,and higher inputs of fertilizer, will be necessary toachieve yield levels sufficient to meet anticipateddemand.

Non-Wood FibersWood remains the most important input to theglobal pulp and paper industry, but non-wood fibers(mainly straw, sugarcane bagasse, and bamboo)play a significant role in a handful of countries in

Asia.56 Estimates of the proportion of pulp pro-duced from non-wood fibers in 1993 range from 5percent to 11 percent.57 It seems likely that the useof non-wood fibers will grow, especially in China,which today accounts for nearly 80 percent of allnon-wood fiber production. The FAO estimatesthat Asia has the capacity to produce 90 percentof the world’s future non-wood fiber, and otherrecent studies suggest that the availability of non-wood materials suitable for pulp and paper-makingcould be as high as 2.5 billion tonnes, one thousandtimes greater than current production.58 Neverthe-less, this would be a long-term prospect, givenproblems related to the seasonal availability ofmost non-wood materials and the need for large-scale pulp mills to operate continuously to remainprofitable. Competing uses for waste organicmaterial, and high pollution levels associated withcurrent, low-technology production methods areadditional constraints. Pollution from non-woodfiber mills can be up to 20 times that from woodpulp mills and could prove an inhibiting factor inthis sector. China, which produces nearly 10percent of the world’s paper, has suffered fromespecially severe water pollution and relatedhuman health problems. As a direct result, theChinese Government has closed down nearly50,000 small paper mills and other townshipenterprises which were causing heavy pollution.

Recovered FiberRecycled fiber currently accounts for about 20percent of total industrial wood fiber consump-tion, and this share is expected to increase to 35percent or more by 2010. Fiber recovery andrecycling is furthest advanced in the industrializedcountries. Europe, North America, and Asiaaccount for over 90 percent of fiber productionfrom waste paper. The total volume of recoveredwaste paper in 1995 was over 114 million tonnes,equivalent to approximately 287 million cubicmeters of fiber.59 The FAO expects this total torise to about 180 million tonnes by 2010, continuinga rapidly rising trend evident since the 1960s.60

Currently, however, all regions except NorthAmerica consume more waste paper than theyproduce; in other words, North American exportsof waste paper underpin the world’s recovered


fiber pulping industry. As North American domes-tic demand and pulping capacity increase, theseexports will diminish, and other countries will needto upgrade their own paper collection and recyclingsystems. The speed at which recovered fibercontinues to substitute for virgin fiber will bestrongly influenced by prevailing prices for wastepaper and its transportation. Great potentialremains for fiber recovery in developing countries.

Summary and ConclusionsIn its recent major study, the Global Fiber SupplyModel, the FAO develops possible scenarios offuture global industrial wood fiber supply byidentifying and quantifying all potential sources –forests, industrial plantations, non-wood fibers,and recovered fibers. The study also tries to takeinto account likely rates of afforestation, yieldgains, deforestation, and conversion of unmanagedto managed forest. The report is optimistic aboutthe short-term supply situation, but it is clear thatthe scenarios of future fiber availability aredependent on far more intensive management ofexisting forests. Major possible changes presentedin the study include the almost complete loss ofundisturbed forest in Asia and accelerated harvest-ing of mature trees in Russia and Canada, as wellas expansion of plantations in Asia and SouthAmerica and greatly increased use of recoveredfiber in Europe. The study does not consider theglobal demand/supply situation for fuelwood andcharcoal. Therefore, if the world’s natural forestsare to be given a higher degree of protection thanis foreseen in most of the scenarios presented inthe study, there is clearly a need for a globalreappraisal of how the world’s demand for woodfiber should best be managed.

8. Possible SolutionsThe world uses more wood every year and allforecasts expect demand to continue rising to theyear 2010 and beyond. The desirable scenario is toensure that pressure is taken off natural forestsand that a rapidly increasing fraction of supplycomes from fast-growing plantations. Marketforces are already encouraging more production ofindustrial wood fiber, particularly pulp, fromplantations. Some countries, such as India, have

encouraged widespread planting of communitywood lots to supply fuelwood needs. In addition,environmental and social concerns, together withtechnological advances, are helping to slow andreshape demand for some wood products in avariety of ways. This section briefly reviews someof these encouraging trends, and outlines policyapproaches which could magnify their effect andso accelerate the process of re-orienting ourcurrent wood consumption patterns in a moresustainable direction.

Improving Management of TropicalHardwood ForestsDestructive logging operations in many tropicalforests are propelled in part by the need fordeveloping countries to generate export revenues.In spite of this, a number of governments haveattempted to slow their national deforestation ratesby introducing economic incentives to loggers toreplant (Costa Rica, Indonesia) or even banninglogging in virgin forests altogether (Philippines).However, the adoption of sustainable forestmanagement practices tends to involve moreadministrative oversight, higher operating costs,and potentially lower yields. Industrial-scaletimber extraction agreements are sometimesawarded on the basis of coercion, corruption orinadequate oversight. In such circumstances,licences should be reviewed and, if found to beirregular, revoked. Licences should then beauctioned in a transparent manner, with someprequalification of eligible bidders based on aproven track record of responsibility. This systemwould encourage more sustainable patterns ofinvestment. Clarification and strengthening oflocal and traditional property rights in manydeveloping countries would also do much tostimulate local community input to the design andimplementation of forest management schemes.Property rights that allow communities to receivemedium and long-term economic benefits wouldencourage non-destructive logging practices. Rapiddepletion of valuable forest resources could also becountered through consumer willingness to pay ahigher price for tropical hardwoods, which wouldprovide the incentive for producers to invest in thelong-term future of their forest assets.


Appreciating WoodfuelsFuelwood and charcoal consumption is too oftenneglected in global assessments of fiber supplyand demand. Biomass (which includes animaldung and crop residues) currently provides aboutone-third of the energy consumed in developingcountries and, even under the most optimisticscenarios of economic growth, over a billion peoplewill be dependent on woodfuels as their primarysource of energy for the foreseeable future.61

Woodfuels are a renewable and carbon-neutralenergy source, and deserve full integration intonational energy policies, alongside commercialfossil fuels. If wood resources are to be managedsustainably, it is essential to base planning decisionson sounder information. Yet most experts todaywould agree with the statement that, “informationon biomass production and use patterns is grosslyinadequate even as a basis for informed guesses,let alone the making of policy and the implementa-tion of plans.”62 Biomass data are difficult togather and surveys can be costly and time-con-suming. There is an urgent need for cost-effectivesampling and analysis techniques in order to reducethe current huge range of uncertainty regardingconsumption and future demand.

Even in the absence of better information,widespread planting of local, community-managedwoodfuel plantations would not only reducedegradation of natural forests and other woodedareas, but would help to arrest desertification andrelieve the hardship involved in fuel collection.Woodfuel production and harvesting systems canbe, and often are, environmentally sustainable, andcan serve other social objectives such as incomegeneration.

Improving the Efficiency of Fiber UseTechnological advances in North America andEurope have significantly reduced the amount ofwaste associated with wood fiber processing.According to a recent North America TimberTrends Study, in Canada, the amount of roundwoodrequired to produce 1 m3 of sawnwood or plywoodhas fallen from an average of 2.67 m3 in 1970 to1.98 m3 today.63 In addition, new products such asmechanically engineered wood products are able to

utilize residues which formerly were wasted. Achemical process developed in the Netherlands hasproved successful in upgrading softwood into aproduct with all the attributes of tropical hardwoodspecies.64 Paper recycling has been increasing inmany countries and, in 1995, the global wastepaper recovery rate reached 41 percent.65 This hasenabled the proportion of wood fiber used in paper-making (that is, fiber made from pulpwood logs orchips) to fall by nearly one-third since 1970, as theinput from recovered waste paper rose more thanthreefold. Numerous policy initiatives in thedeveloped countries, notably “extended producerresponsibility” legislation, have proved effective inraising the recycling rate above market-inducedlevels. These initiatives have been driven mainly byconcerns over solid waste volumes, since wastepaper accounts for between 30 and 40 percent ofmunicipal solid waste in the OECD countries.66

Further improvements in efficiency are mostlikely to be stimulated by industry anticipation ofrising fiber prices. Projections carried out by theEuropean Forest Institute indicate that higher orlower fiber prices could induce a difference inconsumption of about 13 percent by 2010 and 50percent by 2050.67 Raw material taxes are oneoption, but conferring protected status on broadareas of old-growth forest, and requiring theadoption of sustainable forestry practices in allsecondary-growth forests, would both encouragehigher prices and improve forest management.Nor would the adoption of such policies necessar-ily reduce long-term fiber supply. According tothe FAO, sustainable forestry can be expected toreduce harvests in the short-term, and raise costsby between 5 and 25 percent but, in the longer-term, supply should increase, as a result of im-proved site maintenance and reduced damage togrowing stock (damage caused by traditional, “highimpact” logging practices).68

At a more fundamental level, efficiency ofwood fiber use could be substantially improved bysubstituting alternative materials in many commonapplications. There is no compelling reason whylow-value products such as shipping crates andpallets should be made of wood, other than the


current low value of wood fiber. In the UnitedStates, 14 million trees are allegedly used annuallyin mail order catalogues, while one-fifth of thecountry’s lumber goes into crates and pallets, mostof which are discarded.69 Similarly, even manyconstruction uses could be substituted in somecountries, with possible benefits for energyefficiency, durability or other qualities. Currently,many of our uses of wood fiber go unquestioned,for a host of institutional, historical, cultural andeconomic reasons. Efforts to diversify to otherforms of fiber, or inorganic materials, could yieldunexpected benefits. As one example, wood palletscurrently serve as the major vehicle for the importof invasive species such as the Asian long-hornbeetle, and they have been identified as a seriousthreat to biological diversity.

Consumer Choice and Timber CertificationThere is ample evidence that many consumers inthe industrialized countries are actively seekingpaper products which are certified as coming fromsustainably managed softwood forests, and timberimporters in Germany, the Netherlands, and theUK have created buyers’ groups to secure sup-plies of certified timber.70 Certified tropical woodproducts are currently scarce in the market,despite high public concern over deforestation.The leading international accreditation body, theForest Stewardship Council, has been able to bringtogether a range of environmental non-govern-mental organizations (NGOs), governments, andtimber companies to work together constructivelytowards improved management of the world’sforests. There are no available worldwide produc-tion figures for wood from certified forests.However, it is known that the total area of certi-fied forest has increased dramatically in the lastyear. In October 1997, there were 3.8 millionhectares certified in 17 countries.71 By January1998, the number had increased to 6.3 millionhectares.72 In August 1998, there were 10.5 millionhectares certified in 26 countries; by October thishad increased again to 12.3 million hectares in 27countries.73 This is more than a three-fold increasein a twelve-month period, with many additionalforest owners and managers seeking certification.Certified forest products currently account for a

negligible share of world trade, though the FAObelieves that market share is likely to grow withconsumer awareness of forest issues. The poten-tial for change is great. For example, the EuropeanUnion, where consumer interest in certified tropicalwood products is demonstrably high, imports some25 percent of the world’s traded tropical timber.74

Encouraging Fast-Growing PlantationsIn spite of the potential gains from demand sidemeasures and improved efficiency outlined above,they are not likely to be enough to meet projectedincreases in demand, especially for certain productstreams. Rising demand for pulpwood, for ex-ample, should not be discouraged when it is afundamental requirement of growing literacy inthe developing world. And, while efficiency gainsin the developed countries have enabled a partialdecoupling of wood fiber consumption fromexploitation of forest resources, their industrialwood consumption still rose by some 23 percentbetween 1970 and 1990.75 Industrial wood use inthe developing countries is rising much faster andis not yet operating at comparable levels of effi-ciency. The most realistic prospect of meeting theworld’s demand for wood fiber in a sustainablemanner lies in a determined effort to increaseproduction by establishing new plantations.

The prospect of declining harvests fromlogged out, or protected, natural forests, andassociated rising fiber prices, has already encour-aged significant investment in industrial fiberplantations. Approximately 100 million hectaresworld-wide have now been converted to industrialwood plantations, of which just under half are inthe tropical and sub-tropical regions. Plantationsoccupy an area equivalent to just 3.4 percent oftotal forest area but produce nearly 25 percent oftotal industrial wood supply. Intensive fiber produc-tion from plantations is opposed by some environ-mentalists, who cite the damage done to localbiodiversity by monocultural production and theintroduction of alien species, the degradation ofsoils and water systems due to chemical use andpoor soil management, and the sheer ugliness ofimmense areas of geometrically aligned spindlytrees. These objections deserve to be taken


seriously, and they can be overcome. Environmen-tally sensitive plantation forestry is possible, and isalready being practised in many countries. Goodpractices include selecting sites which are notcrucial to biological conservation, planting “bufferzones” which protect water courses, leavingenclaves of natural forest to provide habitat fornative flora and fauna – including beneficialpredators – and adopting ecologically soundmethods of pest management. Such practices canbe required by law; Brazil, for example, requiresthat 30 percent of plantation area be left undernatural management.

Environmental measures of this kind increasethe total area needed to produce a given quantityof wood from a plantation. Even so, it has beenestimated that the world’s entire current consump-tion of industrial roundwood could be supplied fromintensive plantations occupying an area equivalentto less than 10 percent of today’s natural forest.76

If demand for industrial roundwood increases by30 percent by 2010, and by 50 percent by 2050, asmost experts say it will, most of it could be suppliedfrom about 500 million hectares of plantations. Thiswill require concerted effort and determination thatwood fiber can and will be produced from special-ized areas, not simply harvested opportunisticallyfrom the world’s remaining natural forests.


1. FAOSTAT, Forestry on-line database.

2. Hagler, Robert, W., The Global Wood FiberBalance: What It Is; What It Means (WoodResources International Ltd. Reston, Virginia,USA).

3. Solberg, Birger et al, An Overview of FactorsAffecting the Long-Term Trends of Non-Industrialand Industrial Wood Supply and Demand,European Forest Institute Research Report No. 6(European Forest Institute, 1996), p. 48.

4. Op.Cit. note 3, p. 51.

5. Schlosser, W.E., K.A. Blatner, and R.C. Chapman(1991), “ Economy and Marketing Implications ofSpecial Forests Products Harvest in the CoastalPacific Northwest,” Western Journal of AppliedForestry 6 (3), pp. 67-72. Cited in Roger Dower etal, Frontiers of Sustainability: EnvironmentallySound Agriculture, Forestry, Transportation andPower Production (World Resources Institute,Island Press, Washington D.C., 1997), p. 209.

6. Godoy, Ricardo, Ruben Lubowski and AnilMarkandya, “A Method for the EconomicValuation of Nontimber Tropical Forest Prod-ucts,” Economic Botany 47 (3), pp. 220-233.Cited in Kenneth M. Chomitz and Kanta Kumari,“The Domestic Benefits of Tropical Forests: ACritical Review,” The World Bank Observer, Vol.13, No. 1 (International Bank for Reconstructionand Development/The World Bank, February1998), pp. 13-55.

7. Brown, Chris, Global Forest Products OutlookStudy: Thematic Study on Plantations (In draft,FAO, Rome, 1998). Study prepared by ChrisBrown, consultant to FAO Forestry Department.

8. Regional Wood Energy Development Programmein Asia, Regional Study on Wood Energy Todayand Tomorrow in Asia (Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations, Bangkok,October 1997), p. 29.

9. Op. Cit. note 7.

10. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations, State of the World’s Forests, 1997 (FAO,Rome, 1997) p. 55.

11. Ibid, table 4, p. 51.

12. Op.Cit. note 1.

13. Towards a Sustainable Paper Cycle. Reportprepared for the World Business Council forSustainable Development by the InternationalInstitute for Environment and Development(IIED, London, 1996), p. 20.

14. Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs, 1994.(Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, 1994), p.80.

15. Op. Cit. note 13, p. 16.

16. Op. Cit. note 10, pp. 47, 51.

17. Radka, M. “Policy and Institutional Aspects of theSustainable Paper Cycle: An Asian Perspective.”Presented at Regional Workshop on the Sustain-able Paper Cycle, Bangkok, 21-22 February,IIED, London, UK. 1994.

18. Op. Cit. note 10, Table 1, p. 78.

19. Ibid.

20. Bryant, Dirk et al, The Last Frontier Forests(World Resources Institute, Washington D.C.,1997), p. 15.

21. Op. Cit. note 10, p. 16.

22. Op. Cit. note 20, p. 13.

23. Postel, Sandra, Dividing the Waters: FoodSecurity, Ecosystem Health and the New Politicsof Scarcity, Worldwatch Paper No. 132(Worldwatch Institute, Washington D.C., Septem-ber 1996), table 4, p. 21.

24. Wiersum, K.F. (1984), “Surface Erosion underVarious Tropical Agroforestry Systems”, in C.L.O’Loughlin and A.J. Pearce, eds., Proceedings,Symposium on Effects of Forest Land Use onErosion and Slope Stability. International Union

Notes


of Forestry Research Organizations, Vienna, andEast-West Center, Hawaii. Cited in Kenneth M.Chomitz and Kanta Kumari, “The DomesticBenefits of Tropical Forests,” The World BankObserver, Vol. 13, No. 1 (February 1998), pp. 13-35.

25. Ibid.

26. Abramowitz, Janet, Taking a Stand: Cultivating aNew Relationship with the World’s Forests.Worldwatch Paper No. 140 (Worldwatch Institute,Washington D.C., 1998), p. 13.

27. Myers, Norman, “The World’s Forests and TheirEcosystem Services,” in Gretchen Daily (ed.),Nature’s Services: Societal Dependence onNatural Ecosystems (Island Press, WashingtonD.C. 1997), p. 218.

28. “Stunned by Floods, China Hastens LoggingCurbs,” New York Times, September 27, 1998.

29. Op. Cit. note 27, p. 218.

30. Salati and Nobre (1992), cited in Myers (Op.Cit.note 27), p. 220.

31. Alexeyev, V. (1991), Human and NaturalImpacts on the Health of Russian Forests (Insti-tute of Forest and Timber Research, SiberianBranch, USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow,Russia). Cited in Myers (Op. Cit. note 27), p. 222.

32. Houghton, R.A. (1993), “Role of Forests inGlobal Warming,” World Forests for the Future:Their Use and Conservation, K. Ramakrishna andG. M. Woodwell, eds., pp. 21-58 (Yale UniversityPress, New Haven, Connecticut).

33. Dixon et al (1994), “Carbon Pools and Flux ofGlobal Forest Ecosystems,” Science 263: 185-190.


35. IPCC (1996), Climate Change 1995 (SecondAssessment Report) (Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, UK).

36. Op. Cit. note 10, p. 41.

37. Ibid, p. 41.

38. Ibid, p. 41.

39. Swanson, Timothy, Global Action forBiodiversity (Earthscan Publications Ltd. London.Published in association with the World Conser-vation Union and the World Wide Fund forNature, 1997), p. 21.

40. A number of environmental economists areworking to develop methodologies which assignvalues to ecosystem services. As yet, the resultsare preliminary and exploratory and have notgained widespread acceptance among policy-makers or mainstream economists. Nevertheless,all indications are that the uncounted benefitsprovided by nature’s services amount to manybillions of dollars annually.

41. Jaakko Pöyry, Global Fiber Resources Situation:The Challenges for the 1990s (The Jaakko PoyryGroup, Tarrytown, NY, 1995); Apsey M., and L.Reed, World Timber Resources Outlook, CurrentPerceptions: A Discussion Paper (Council ofForest Industries, Vancouver, BC, Canada.Second Edition, 1995); Sedjo, R.A. and K.S.Lyon, A Global Pulpwood Supply Model andSome Implications (Final Report to IIED, Re-sources for the Future, Washington D.C., 1995);Nilsson, S. Do We Have Enough Forests? IUFROOccasional Paper No. 5 (International Institute forApplied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,1996).

42. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations, Global Fiber Supply Study (FAO, Rome,April 1998). Draft Copy.


44. Op. Cit. note 10, p. 80.

45. Jones (1995) cited in Nilsson, S. Do We HaveEnough Forests? IUFRO Occasional Paper No. 5(International Instititute for Applied SystemsAnalysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1996), p.12.

46. Nilsson, S., Do We Have Enough Forests?IUFRO Occasional Paper No. 5 (InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis,Laxenburg, Austria, 1996).

47. For example, in 1979, the Energy Research andDevelopment Group of the Institute of Science,Tribhuvan University, Nepal, forecast that allaccessible forest in the country would disappearby 1990. Actual forest loss has been about halfthe predicted amount and there is no suggestionthat it is primarily due to fuelwood collection. Theerror was caused by the assumption that all fuelwas collected from forests. Cited in RegionalStudy on Wood Energy Today and Tomorrow inAsia (Regional Wood Energy DevelopmentProgramme in Asia, Field Document No. 50.Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations, Bangkok, October 1997), p. 20.


48. Op. Cit. note 42, p. 42.

49. Trexler and Haugen (1995), Zuidema et al (1994),Solomon et al (1996). Cited in Nilsson (Op. Cit.note 45), pp. 36-37.

50. Op. Cit. note 46, pp. 56-57.

51. Op. Cit. note 10, p. 81.



54. Palmer (1995). Cited in Nilsson (Op. Cit. note 46).

55. Sedjo, Roger and Daniel Botkin, “Plantations andNatural Forests”, in Environment, December1997, pp. 15-21.

56. Pandey, D., Tropical Forest Plantation Areas,1995. Report to FAO project GCP/INT/628/UK(FAO, Rome, 1997)

57. Atchison, cited in FAO (Op. Cit. note 42).

58. Op. Cit. note 13, p.72.

59. Atchison (1994) and McCloskey (1995), cited inNilsson (Op. Cit. note 46), p. 31.

60. Op. Cit. note 42, table 17, p. 47. Conversionfactor, p. 18.

61. Op. Cit. note 10, figure 11, p. 90.

62. Hall, David, “Biomass Energy “Forever” in Non-OECD Countries? Why it is Important to KnowWhat is Going on and How this Can Be Deter-mined”, Biomass Energy: Key Issues and PriorityNeeds (Organisation for Economic Cooperationand Development/International Energy Agency,Paris, 1997), p. 57.

63. Ibid, pp. 57-78.

64. Op. Cit. note 10, p. 31.

65. Boonstra, M.J. et al, Thermal Modification ofNon-Durable Wood Species. The InternationalResearch Group on Wood Preservation. Paperprepared for the 29th Annual Meeting, Maastricht,the Netherlands, June 14-19 1998 (IRG Secretariat,KTH, S-100 44 Stockholm Sweden).

66. Pulp and Paper International, International Factand Price Book 1997 (San Francisco, CA: MillerFreeman, Inc., 1996). Cited in Lester Brown et al,Vital Signs 1998 (Worldwatch Institute, Washing-ton D.C., 1998), p.145.

67. Op. Cit. note 13, p. 180.


69. Op. Cit. note 42, pp. 38-39.

70. Environmental Investigation Agency, CorporatePower, Corruption and the Destruction of theWorld’s Forests (Washington D.C. September1996). Cited in Abramowitz (Op. Cit. note 26), p.32.

71. The Business of Sustainable Forestry: CaseStudies. A project of the Sustainable ForestryWorking Group (the John D. and Catherine T.MacArthur Foundation, Chicago, 1998), pp. 14-3to 14-4.

72. Wilson, Alex and Nadav Malin, “Wood productscertification: a progress report.” EnvironmentalBuilding News, November 1997.

73. Bowles, Ian, R.E. Rice, R.A. Mittermeier, andG.A.B. da Fonseca. “Logging and tropical forestconservation.” Science, June 19, 1998 (Vol. 280),fn. 4.

74. “Forests certified by FSC-accredited certificationbodies”. FSC document 5.3.3.

75. European Commission, Directorate General forDevelopment, Workshop Proceedings: Certifica-tion of Forests and Timber Labelling in West andCentral Africa, 13-14 June, 1996, Brussels (World-wide Fund for Nature, EC Project B7-5041/95.8/VIII), p. 15.


FISH CONSUMPTION AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS 51

1. Global Fish ConsumptionIn 1996, the global harvest of fish rose to a newrecord of 121 million tonnes.1 This puts fishproduction well ahead of any one of the four mainanimal commodity groups (beef and veal, sheepmeat, pig meat, and poultry meat).2 In developingcountries, fish production is not far behind the totalproduction of all four animal commodities puttogether.3 Fish and other aquatic foods thus play anunder-rated role in the human diet. In 1993, thelatest year for which all data are available, foodfish accounted for 16 percent of animal proteinconsumed world-wide and, in some Asian coun-tries, the proportion rises to between 30 and 50percent (Table 1). For about one billion people,seafood is the primary source of animal protein.Fish products are also an important source ofprotein in animal and fish feeds. More than 27percent of the total 1995 fish catch, or 31 milliontonnes, was processed into “non-food fish,” that is,fish meal and fish oils.

Production, Consumption and TradeThe global fish supply comes from three mainsources. Harvests from the sea, known as marinecaptures, accounted for some 72 percent of thetotal fish harvest in 1996, inland captures (from

lakes, rivers and ponds) for about 6 percent. Theremaining 22 percent came from aquaculture (fishfarming), where fish are raised either in inlandwaters (13 percent) or in specially constructedponds or cages along coastlines (9 percent).4

World fishing activity is highly concentrated,with just 20 countries accounting for about 80percent of total production, and 10 countries foralmost 70 percent (Figure 1). By far the biggestproducer is China, even allowing for the fact thatjust over 60 percent of production there nowcomes from aquaculture.5 Today’s situation repre-sents a major change from the 1950s, when about80 percent of the world’s fish catch was taken bythe developed countries.

Perhaps surprisingly, in an age of factorytrawlers and industrial-scale fishing, around halfthe fish eaten in the world today come frominshore and coastal areas that are dominated bysmall and medium-scale fishers.6 Subsistence andlocal market fisheries therefore remain of keyimportance to the food security of coastal andinland populations in low-income countries. Devel-oping countries account for the bulk of fish con-sumption (Figure 2). However, they are becoming

III. Fish Consumption and Aquatic Ecosystems

Table 1: Fish Consumption in the Human Diet, 1993

Africa 7 17.4North America 18 7.5South America 8.9 7.4Europe 18.1 9.0Former USSR 11.2 9.3Oceania 20.1 8.6Asia (exc. China) 13.9 25.7China 14.3 21.5World 13.4 15.6

Source: FAO

Region Per Capita Fish Supply (kg) Fish Protein (as % of Animal Protein)


more active as exporters: international trade inaquatic products continues to increase in volumeand value, reaching $US52 billion in 1995.7 Thedeveloping countries’ share of total seafoodexports reached 56 percent by value in 1995, andnet receipts of foreign exchange (exports minusimports) amounted to $US18 billion.8 The industrial-ized countries, where average per capita fishconsumption is higher than in the developing world,dominate imports of seafood products, accountingfor 83 percent in value terms. Japan, with thehighest per capita fish consumption in the industri-alized world, accounted for about 30 percent ofworld imports in 1995.9

This pattern of production and consumptionhas been encouraged by two developments. Theestablishment during the 1970s and 1980s ofExclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), which grantcoastal nations exclusive rights to use and developfisheries within a 200-nautical mile boundary,shifted the balance of production to developingcountries and forced many industrialized countries

to import fish which they had previously caughtwith their own “distant water” fleets. Secondly,many developing countries have built up aquacul-ture industries which are almost entirely orientedtowards exports, and the sector has assumed greatimportance in many national economies. Shrimp,for example, have become the most prominentlytraded aquaculture product internationally,10 andover 99 percent of production is in developingcountries.

2. Unfolding Trends in the GlobalFisheries Industry

Rising Demand, Rising ProductionThe global fish harvest has increased more thanfivefold from its 1950 level of 21 million tonnesand the growth in production has been relativelysmooth, unmarked by the erratic ups and downscharacteristic of many other food commodities(Figure 3). Demand has been fuelled by popula-tion growth, and a greater concentration of peoplein coastal settlements; nearly 40 percent of the

Source: FAOSTAT

Figure 1. Principal Fish Producers, 1996 (capture fisheries and aquaculture)

31.9

9.5

6.9 6.85.4 5.3 4.7 4.4

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world’s population now lives within 100 km of thesea.11 Equally, rising income has stimulated greaterconsumption of higher-value seafood products,such as shellfish and salmon. Fish production hasmore than kept pace with population growth; percapita fish supply rose from 9.1 kg/year in 1961 to14.4 kg/year in 1995.12

Fisheries growth has also been supply-led,encouraged by open access to marine resources,new technology, expanding national claims onfisheries, and economic development policieswhich invest in production capacity in order toprovide employment and generate foreign earnings.Technological advances have brought the greatestchange to the industry. Electronic navigationsystems, sonar location devices, and satelliteobservation have made tracking fish a swifter andmore efficient process. Gigantic trawl and driftnets, several kilometers long, can catch hundredsof tonnes of fish in a day. On-board processing andfreezing facilities enable boats to stay at sea forweeks or months at a time.

The Rise of AquacultureOne of the most striking trends of the past twodecades has been the rise of aquaculture, whichnow provides 22 percent of global fish production.The sector has grown at an average annual rate ofmore than 10 percent since 1984, with growthaccelerating in recent years, far exceeding thegrowth rate for capture fisheries or livestockmeat.13 Asia, with a long tradition of cultivating fishin ponds adjacent to farms, dominates the aquacul-ture industry, accounting for over 90 percent ofworld output. China, with huge areas of inland carpponds, is the major player. Starting from a muchlower production base, Southeast Asian countriesand Latin America have rapidly expanded theiroutput of farmed crustaceans to supply exportmarkets, while Europe and the United States haveincreased their production of temperate finfish,notably salmon and trout, and molluscs.

Source: FAOSTAT

Figure 2. World Food Fish Consumption, Average 1993-95

22.7

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A Changing HarvestThe superficial picture of constantly rising fishharvests is not a reliable indicator of the state ofaquatic ecosystems. Much of the productionincrease of the past decade or more has comefrom aquaculture. And the steady increases inannual marine captures mask a far more compli-cated picture in which regional fishing grounds, andspecific fish stocks, have been successivelyexploited and depleted. The FAO has compileddata showing the sequence of dates at which peakdemersal fish harvests (high-value fish such as codand haddock) were taken in the various oceans ofthe world. Harvests clearly peaked in the Atlanticbetween the late 1960s and early 1970s and havedeclined ever since. Harvests in the Pacific peakedbetween the mid-1970s and late 1980s, and then inthe Indian Ocean, in the early 1990s.14 A similarsequential pattern can be seen in peak harvests ofdifferent fish species. Atlantic cod and haddockcatches peaked by 1970, then came the turn of

species including, successively, anchoveta andmackerel, sardines and pilchards and today,skipjack tuna, Chilean jack mackerel, and Pacificcod.15 The overall trend has been a decline in thecatch of high-value demersal fish, and theirsubstitution by lower-value pelagic fish. Pelagicfish now constitute about 60 percent by weight ofthe global catch, and 40 percent by value.16

Global Fishing Fleet CapacityThe size of the world’s fishing fleet nearly doubledbetween 1970 and 1992,17 while technologicalimprovements improved the catching capacity ofeach boat. Productivity increases are difficult toestimate for the global fleet, but a study of sixfishery fleets in OECD countries indicates techni-cal capacity increases of between 2.8 percent and6 percent per year over different time periodsbetween the 1960s and early 1990s.18 Globaladvances in technical capacity have not broughtproportionate gains, however; marine captures rose

Source: FAOSTATNote: Disaggregated data for aquaculture are not available before 1984.

Figure 3. World Fishery Production, 1950-1996

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Total Marine ProductionMarine AquacultureMarine CaptureTotal Inland ProductionInland AquacultureInland Capture


by about 30 percent between 1970 to 1992,equivalent to an average annual growth rate ofunder 1.4 percent. Fishing effort has continued toincrease and, today, the FAO estimates that theglobal fleet is approximately 30 percent larger thanit needs to be to fully harvest the available re-sources.19 This estimate has been challenged astoo conservative, since it treats all the world’s fishas a single stock and does not reflect the historicalpattern of serial overfishing of one species afteranother. A recent study, based on data since 1970for 14 leading fishing countries, estimates a level ofabout 150 percent in global fleet overcapacity. Inother words, there may be two-and-one-half timesthe level of catching power in the fleet needed toachieve a catch level that would not further depletestocks.20

To summarize these trends, fish and otherseafood (principally crustaceans, molluscs andaquatic plants) have provided an important andgrowing component of the human diet over thepast 40 years. Production has outpaced populationgrowth, thanks to major investments in globalfishing capacity. This capacity now exceeds whatmarine fisheries can support. The total annualharvest of fish from the sea appears close to itspeak, and many regional fisheries are in decline. Sofar, however, production has been kept up byexploitation of those few fishing grounds which stillhave potential and, to a greater extent, by expand-ing aquaculture.

3. A Renewable Resource in DeclineOverfishing has been formally recognized as aproblem since the beginning of the century andwas the subject of an international conference asearly as 1947.21 Scientific warnings, however, havemet strong political and instinctual resistance to theidea that the ocean’s bounty might be exhaustible.The world’s oceans are indeed huge, but the arearelevant to fishing activities is relatively small.Most productive aquatic ecosystems (in terms ofharvestable primary production) occur within anarrow band, often less than 30 meters in depth,ringing the world’s coastlines and coral reefsystems, and in a few important “hot spots”

scattered about in areas of upwelling or aggrega-tion where fish feed or migrate. These areas arewhere fishing fleets concentrate their operations:about 90 percent of capture fisheries are found incoastal waters within the 200-nautical-mile zonesof coastal states.22

Serial ExploitationThe FAO has conducted a detailed review ofhistoric harvests from the top 200 species-areafishing resources, which together account for 77percent of marine fish production. The studyreveals a clear “boom and bust” cycle of exploita-tion in which fish stocks are rapidly developed,harvests peak, then decline with over-fishing. Theresults, published in 1994, indicated that 60 percentof the world’s fisheries are being fished at orbeyond their level of maximum productivity, andthat none at all remain to be “opened up”(Figure 4).23

In those fisheries classified as fully exploited ordepleted, catches declined from a peak of 14million tonnes in 1985 to 8 million tonnes in 1994 –about the same level as was obtained in the mid-1960s, with a far smaller fleet.24 In some regions,declines have been even more spectacular. In theSoutheast and Northwest Atlantic, demersal fishharvests have fallen by 66 percent and 75 percentrespectively in the last 20 years.25 Since the 1960s,the North Sea mackerel fishery has declined by 80percent, while the herring fishery, though shutdown entirely between 1977 and 1982, has not fullyrecovered.26 Experience suggests that over-fishedstocks can recover, given adequate protection, butthat the process takes many years. The codfisheries of the Grand Banks off the coast ofNewfoundland were closed in 1992 after stockscollapsed; five years later, they were partially re-opened but scientists, environmentalists and somefishermen warned that it was too soon.27 Oneexplanation for the slow recovery here, and in codfisheries off the coast of Maine, appears to be theuse of deep sea trawls which damage flora andfauna on the sea bed. These complex livingcommunities provide food and shelter to young codbut, once lost, can take many decades to re-establish themselves.28


Some of the most profitable species of fish,such as Atlantic cod, haddock and bluefin tunahave been fished to the brink of commercialextinction in many areas (Figure 5). In 1996, theWorld Conservation Union (IUCN) added thesefish to its “red list” of endangered species.29 Intheir place, the fishing industry has turned toinferior species – generally smaller, bonier, oily fish- such as anchovy, pilchard and mackerel. Thesetoo, have been subjected to over-exploitation, withthe most notorious production crash hitting thePeruvian anchovy stocks in the early 1970s.Today’s boom is occurring in the last relativelyundeveloped areas of the Pacific and Indianoceans, with high harvests of, for example,skipjack and yellowfin tuna, Pacific cod, andChilean and Indian mackerel.

The FAO has reported on numerous occasionsthat the rate of increase in the world’s fish harvestis slowing and is approaching zero, indicating thatthe predicted maximum production from theworld’s conventional marine resources undercurrent exploitation regimes (about 82 milliontonnes) has been reached.30 Sustainable maximumyields are theoretical and always subject to scien-tific uncertainty. Nevertheless, between 60 and 70percent of global fisheries are considered to be inneed of urgent management to prevent imminentdecline or to rehabilitate depleted stocks. Theaggregate picture of high yields in the 1990s thushides the increasing occurrence of overfishing on amultitude of different stocks, compensated byintense exploitation of a dwindling number ofdeveloping stocks.

Source: Grainger and Garcia (note 15).Notes: The chart provides a striking illustration of the intensification of fishing effort since 1951. In that year, some 95percent of the world’s marine fisheries were under-exploited and fish harvests were rising almost everywhere. By 1971,about 30 percent of fisheries were fully developed or already in decline, and the balance of 70 percent were beingdeveloped. None could be classified as undeveloped. By 1994, fish harvests were falling in 35 percent of fisheries andwere at maximum exploitation levels in another 25 percent. Potential development remains in about 40 percent of theworld’s fisheries.

Figure 4. Major World Fisheries in Various Stages of Fishery Development

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1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991

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Overfishing is a more complicated phenom-enon than simply taking too many fish out of theocean. Which fish are taken, at what stage of theirlife cycle, are important factors, as are the meth-ods used to take them. The “productivity take”from the world’s productive fishing grounds (howmuch biomass is removed) is between 25 and 34percent, close to the percentage of plant matterremoved in terrestrial farming systems.31 Fisheriesmanagement, however, does not involve anyequivalent of “planting,” or of soil maintenance.Much fishing has been carried out in a mannermore akin to mining than farming. There is now arapidly growing consensus among fisheries expertsthat the precipitous decline in so many of theworld’s commercial fish stocks is the result ofdisregard for the complex functioning of aquaticecosystems and repeated failures of management.

4. Current Fishing Practices andEcosystem Impacts

Modern fishing techniques, both in capture fisher-ies and aquaculture, are disturbing many parts ofan interlocking biological system that connectsestuaries, coastal zones, continental shelves andbanks, and the deep ocean. Inland fisheries areintimately linked to the ecology of surrounding soils,water courses and the atmosphere. Too many fishare being caught, or grown, in ways that aredestroying natural habitats, wiping out key parts ofthe marine food chain, changing species balance,and degrading water quality. Coastal fishingactivities also interact with other human stresseson the aquatic environment, notably pollution fromsewage, industrial effluent, and agricultural run-off,while inland waters concentrate nutrients andtoxics from terrestrial run-off and atmosphericdeposition. The consequent disruption of biologicalbalance in aquatic ecosystems is critically impairingthe natural ability of fish to survive and reproduce.

Source: FAO FISHSTAT

Figure 5. Annual Catch of Cod, Hake, and Haddock, 1950-1995

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Fishing Down the Food ChainAs already described, when overfishing depletesprized species like cod and tuna, fishing fleets turnto smaller species, further down the ecologicalfood chain. These species often flourish when theirnatural predators have been removed, only to bescooped up in their turn. A recent study hasquantified the extent of this global shift from higherlevel to lower level species.32 The study classifiesall commercially important marine species in fourdifferent trophic levels (steps in the food chain);predator species like tuna and swordfish are level4, anchovy are level 2.2, while grass, detritus andalgae are level 1. Since the 1950s, it seems that themean trophic level of fish catches from all fisheriesdeclined from more than 3.3 to less than 3.1 in1994. The measured decline is probably an under-estimate, as catch measurements in the tropics arepoorly recorded. Since most fish suitable forhuman consumption fall between about 2.5 and 4,the scope for further downward movement islimited. The logical conclusion of fishing down thefood chain is a diet of plankton (trophic level 2).There are more immediate risks to marine ecosys-tems. In the North Sea, for example, cod havebeen fished out and substituted with catches oftheir prey, the Norway pout. The pout, in turn, preyon tiny organisms called copepod and krill. But krillalso eat copepod so, if pout are removed, the krillpopulation expands and feasts upon the copepods.Because copepods, to come full circle, are themain food of young cod, cod stocks cannot re-cover, even though they may be legally protected.

Dumping the Parents, Eating the BabiesFor every four fish caught, one is thrown away.When fishing nets are pulled in, they contain manyindividuals which are unwanted because they aretoo small, the wrong species or because the fishingvessel does not have a permit, or a large enoughquota, to take them. Much of this “bycatch” istossed overboard, and a high proportion of individu-als do not survive capture, or the trauma ofexposure and handling on deck.33 The most recentand authoritative estimate is that 27 million tonnesof fish were discarded in 1994, equivalent to one-third of the total food fish catch. In addition, manyhundreds of thousands of birds, seals, dolphins,

turtles and other non-fish species were also killedas bycatch. This is far higher than earlier esti-mates, and represents a calamitous waste ofresources. The volume of bycatch varies withtarget species; the trawl fishery of the NorthwestPacific, targeting pollock, sole, cod and mackerel,produced the world’s largest volume of waste atover 9 million tonnes.34 However, the shrimpingindustry is responsible for the highest catch:discardratio, with an average of 1:5 world-wide. Becauseof small mesh nets and high species diversity intropical waters, bycatch in tropical regions canexceed the shrimp catch by 15 to 1.35 In the Gulf ofMexico shrimp fishery, for example, an estimated12 million juvenile red snappers and 2,800 tonnes ofsharks are discarded annually.36 World-wide,shrimp fisheries account for fully 35 percent ofcommercial fishery discards.37

The ecological impacts of bycatch vary greatlyin different fisheries, but a number of recentstudies tends to confirm that populations of targetand non-target species can be adversely affected.If too many juveniles are killed, the future breedingstock is diminished. For example, high discard ratesof undersized fish were a contributing factor inobserved population declines in the Gulf of Mainecod and haddock fisheries and in the skate fisheryof the Irish Sea.38 Discards thus aggravate theproblem of catching fish too young – even thelegally allowed catch does not always sufficientlyprotect the next generation. Overfishing of matureindividuals, followed by overfishing of smaller fish,has caused the average age and size of fishharvested to decline markedly. As one example,the average size of swordfish caught has shrunkfrom 120 kg to 30 kg over the past 20 years andthe breeding population has been reduced by half.Consumers are now eating primarily small, imma-ture individuals.39

Destroying the NurseriesThe reproductive cycle of many commerciallyimportant fish depends on specific marine habitatsfor the protection of eggs and the nourishment ofhatched larvae. Three of the most crucial habitatswhich are currently being degraded by variousfishing techniques and fish farming are the benthic


communities which live on the sea floor, coralreefs, and coastal mangrove forests.

Commercial fleets have increasingly investedin mobile gear – trawl nets and dredges – whichare dragged along the sea floor of continentalshelves. Today, it is even possible to trawl thecontinental slopes, at depths of up to 1,200 meters.Nets known as “rock-hoppers” are fitted withrollers which enable them to traverse the mostuneven sea bed, scraping and sliding over bouldersor other obstacles. The practice largely destroysthe benthic community (life forms on the sea bedincluding sponges, tube worms, urchins, anemonesand hydrozoans) which provide food and habitatfor young fry. It has been argued that the sea bedis naturally subject to periodic disturbance bystorms, but the impact of trawling is felt at muchdeeper levels and trawls tend to be repeated atmuch higher frequency. The intensively-fishedGeorges Bank off New England, where groundfishstocks collapsed in the early 1990s, was trawled 3or 4 times a year between 1984 and 1991, withspecific areas being revisited far more frequently.40

Trawling for prawns in tropical waters is producingsimilar effects.

Coral reefs are comparable with tropicalrainforests in their level of species diversity andbiological productivity. About 4,000 species of fishand 800 species of reef-building coral have beendescribed to date, and the total number of speciesmay run into millions.41 Coral reefs are currentlyunder threat from a multitude of assaults, includingdevelopment, pollution, tourism and overfishing.Two fishing practices are particularly destructiveand, for once, are not the work of industrial-scalefishing fleets. Dynamite is increasingly used bylocal fishers as a quick and effective means toharvest fish from labyrinthine coral systems.Incidents of blast fishing have been reported withincreasing frequency throughout Southeast Asiaand parts of the Caribbean.42 Dynamite blastingdoes irreparable damage to fragile coraline struc-tures and rich habitats are lost. Another threat isthe practice of fishing with sodium cyanide on thereefs of Southeast Asia. Cyanide is used to stunand capture fish live, either for sale as ornamental

aquarium fish or to supply the Chinese restaurantmarket for large, live reef fish, available forselection by patrons. Choosing to eat rare andexpensive species has become a status symbol towealthy consumers in Hong Kong and other Asianand North American cities with large Chinesepopulations. Once confined to the Philippines(which is now taking action against the problem),cyanide fishing has spread throughout Indonesiaand into Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, theMaldives and Fiji.43 Cyanide is highly toxic to manynon-target fish, and kills corals; systematic data arelacking but there is widespread anecdotal evidenceof the physical and chemical damage caused bypoison-fishing.44

Coastal mangrove forests are found in tropicaland sub-tropical inter-tidal areas of the world.They provide rich habitat for a wide range of floraand fauna, from fungi, lichens, insects and crusta-ceans, to numerous fish, birds, reptiles, and mam-mals. Mangroves are important feeding, breedingand nursery grounds for numerous commercialfish, including wild shrimp. In some tropicalcountries, species that depend on mangroves atsome stage of their life cycle make up 80 to 90percent by value of the total catch.45 Mangrovesare currently threatened by various forms ofexploitation and coastal development, of whichconversion to coastal aquaculture is one of themore serious.

During the aquaculture boom of the 1980s,large tracts of coastal mangroves were dug up tomake way for shrimp ponds. China, India and theSoutheast Asian countries now have about 1.2million hectares under shrimp ponds, and nearly200,000 hectares have been converted in theWestern hemisphere, chiefly in Latin America.46

Many of these ponds were established in open saltflats or other relatively unproductive land. Manyothers, however, were dug out of mangroveforests. One estimate is that some 40 percent ofsmall shrimp farms in Asia displaced mangroves.47

World-wide, shrimp farming may be responsible forless than 10 percent of total mangrove loss, but insome countries, notably Thailand, the Philippines,Vietnam, and Ecuador, the proportion appears to be


much higher.48 The consequences for fisheryproduction are serious. Various studies confirm thatthe loss of mangroves leads to a decline in wild fishharvests, as food and shelter for numerous speciesare removed.49 Depleted catches, in turn, lead tounemployment and social hardship among artisanalfishers. Ironically, many shrimp farms, particularlythose in Latin America, stock their ponds withshrimp larvae caught in the wild, because they arebelieved to be superior to those raised in hatcher-ies. Intensive collection of shrimp larvae fromestuaries provides much-needed local employment,but is believed to have seriously depleted popula-tions of post-larval wild shrimp in some areas.Thus, the farmed and wild-catch shrimp industriesare placed in competition with each other.

AquacultureThe environmental impacts of fish farming need tobe taken seriously, because the sector is growingso fast, and because it is expected to provide muchif not all the increase in fish production that will berequired in coming decades (see Section 5).Environmental concerns tend to focus on fishfarming in coastal zones (which accounts for one-third of total aquaculture production) and particu-larly on the intensive cultivation of carnivorousspecies such as shrimp, prawn, and salmon.

In tropical and semi-tropical regions, theimpacts associated with mangrove loss extend wellbeyond the damage to wild fishery habitats alreadydescribed. Mangrove removal entails the loss ofecosystem services including mitigation of coastalerosion and flooding, and regulation of the drainagecapacity of river systems, as well as a huge rangeof local goods including building materials, fuels,animal and plant foods, fibers, dyes and tannins.

Intensive aquaculture can also disrupt localfarming with the demands it places on land andwater resources. Shrimp farms require largevolumes of fresh water to grow out their stock –raising one kg of shrimps requires 50 to 60 thou-sand litres of water.50 Many paddy rice farmers inSouth and East Asia are finding themselves in alosing competition for land and water. For example,thousands of farmers in Bangladesh and India are

reported to have suffered from invasion of theirlands by aquaculture businesses and from damageto their crops by seepage of saltwater from shrimpponds. Some hundreds of thousands may havebeen displaced, prompting violent clashes andprotests to the government.51 In 1997, India tookthe unusual step of ordering the closure of allcommercial shrimp farms in five coastal states,after a long campaign by environmental groups andlocal fishing and farming communities.52

If improperly managed, intensive fish farms inboth tropical and temperate zones can be highlypolluting. Pond effluents can contain high concen-trations of nutrients, pesticides, antibiotics andother wastes, which are flushed out into surround-ing waters – ponds need frequent water exchangeto remain healthy. Too many farms in one area canoverwhelm the assimilative capacity of coastalecosystems, leading to eutrophication of localwaters (Box 1). In closed ponds, sediments maybuild up, leading to depleted oxygen levels and aconcentration of toxic metabolites. A number ofAsian countries, including Taiwan, Thailand andVietnam have suffered from sudden shellfishproduction crashes, caused by improper siteselection (especially with regard to water supplyand discharge), cumulative “self pollution” anddisease. Viral infections, caused sometimes by theintroduction of non-native hatchery larvae, oftencompounded by inadequate health management,have decimated shrimp stocks in some of theleading producer countries, including Vietnam,Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia. Disease is nowconsidered the most limiting factor in shrimpcultivation. Estimates of economic losses suggestthat developing countries in Asia lost at least$US1.4 billion in 1990 and losses have sinceincreased; the World Bank has recently estimatedthe global costs of shrimp disease at around $US3billion.53

Further problems relate to the fact that aquac-ulture often involves the monocultural production ofalien species. Introduced species can, and do,escape into the wild; others are deliberatelyreleased, and many experts have expressed fearsover the potential loss of genetic diversity if


interbreeding occurs between farmed and wildstrains or species. This is a distinct possibilitywhere hundreds of millions of hatchery fish arereleased annually, as in the salmon fisheries of theNorthwest American coast. There are risks: forexample, farmed salmon may be bred for traitssuch as faster growth, late sexual maturing, andhigh tolerance for crowding. These traits arebeneficial in culture but may constitute a serioushandicap to survival in the wild. So far, however,the actual genetic impact of such practices has notbeen adequately evaluated.

Widespread and costly damage has certainlybeen caused by some introductions, via farmedaquatic species, of new predators, parasites, anddiseases. Crayfish “plague” was imported to theUnited Kingdom from North America, molluscparasites have been disseminated by shipments ofPacific oyster seed, a lethal trout virus has beenspread throughout the United States and intoJapan.54 The effects can cascade through themarine system. In 1989, the wild sea trout fisheriesof Ireland collapsed, with catches down by 90percent. The fish were killed by infestation by aspecies of lice, previously almost unknown, whichwas traced to farmed salmon in the area. Attemptsto kill the lice with chemicals in turn led to reducedshellfish yields and were suspected in connectionwith a sudden increase in the number of cataractsin wild salmon and other fish.55

5. Looking Ahead: Future Demand andConstraints on Supply

The FAO has estimated the global demand for fishand fish products in 2010, based on constant 1990prices and assumptions regarding population andincome growth, and the pace of urbanization.Other factors likely to come into play includecultural preferences for fish in the diet, andtechnological developments in fish processing andpackaging.56

Demand for fish for human consumption (foodfish) is conservatively estimated at between 110and 120 million tonnes in 2010, compared withactual production in 1995 of 82 million tonnes

(Figure 6). Demand for non-food fish (fish mealand fish oils) is, somewhat optimistically, expectedto remain relatively stable at between 30 and 33million tonnes. This is because fish meal, the mainnon-food fish product, is one of the most expensivecomponents of animal and fish feeds, and produc-ers have a clear incentive to reduce the amountsused. Total demand for both food and non-foodfish, therefore, may range between 140 and 153million tonnes, an increase of up to 35 percent overthe 1995 harvest.

Can this level of demand be met? The FAObelieves that, under current fishing regimes, thepotential world-wide harvest from marine capturefisheries is no more than 90 million tonnes, and thatthis could not be sustained indefinitely. It is difficultto estimate the potential increases which could be

BOX 1: Fish Farms and Eutrophication

Carnivorous and omnivorous fish such as salmon, troutand shrimp are fed on high-protein fish meal. Only 20-30percent of the nitrogen component in feed is assimilatedinto fish tissue. The balance, plus excreted ammonia andother nutrients, is eventually flushed out of the systemduring water exchange.1 A 1982 study of cage-raisedtrout in Poland indicated that, for every kg of marketabletrout produced, the lake was enriched by 0.75 kg carbon,0.023 kg phosphorus and 0.10 kg nitrogen.2 Salmontypically produce between 0.22 and 0.28 g of dissolvednitrogen per kilogram of fish annually.3 In poorly flushedbays or inlets, water nutrient levels can be elevated tothe point where eutrophication is enhanced; correlationsbetween fish farms and harmful algal blooms have beendocumented in Japan. Few other clear correlations havebeen documented so far, and fish farms have more oftenbeen damaged by algal blooms triggered by sewagedischarges and agricultural run-off. However, thevolumes of sludge and effluents from fish farms shouldnot be dismissed. It has been estimated that 30-35percent of the total organic matter discharged into thewaters of Jutland in Denmark stems from trout farms,equivalent to the untreated organic loading from abouthalf a million people.4

1 National Research Council, Marine Aquaculture:Opportunities for Growth (National Academy Press,Washington D.C., 1992), p. 96.2 Penczak, T. et al, “The Enrichment of a mesotrophicLake by Carbon, Phosphorus and Nitrogen from theCage Aquaculture of RainbowTrout,” Salmo Gairdneri, Journal of Applied Ecology, 19,1982, pp. 371-393.3 Op. Cit. note 1.4 Warren-Hansen, I., “Methods of Treatment of WasteWater from Trout Farming,” EIFAC Technical Paper 41,1982, pp. 113-121.


achieved through a combination of improvedmanagement, reduced wastage from discards andpost-harvest losses, and recovery of depletedstocks. A cautious estimate is that, under muchimproved management conditions, capture fisheriesmight yield a sustainable additional 15 milliontonnes, or a total of 105 million tonnes per year.This still leaves a gap between demand and supplyof 35 to 48 million tonnes; the expectation is thatthis would have to be bridged by aquaculture.

Fish farms contributed 9 percent to global fishproduction in 1985 and nearly 20 percent a decadelater. There is still scope for expansion, particularlyin the form of fish ponds integrated into inlandfarming systems. The FAO’s estimate is that,under the most favourable conditions, aquacultureproduction could rise by about one-third to 39million tonnes in 2010. Thus, in the most optimisticscenario, where the oceans are wisely managedand aquaculture flourishes sustainably, the world’sdemand for fish will just be met (Table 2).

A point to bear in mind is that some of themore rapidly expanding forms of aquacultureactually involve “using fish to feed fish.” Farm-made and commercially manufactured fish feedsare composed of animal, vegetable and fishproteins, the latter derived from pelagic fish. Feedsused in the intensive cultivation of some finfishspecies and shrimp account for an unknownfraction of the wild fish harvest (Box 2).

The outlook of the FAO is broadly confirmedby estimates conducted by other fisheries experts.The International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI) looks ahead to 2020 and foresees stable(at best) or declining harvests from capturefisheries and world aquaculture expanding, butinsufficiently to meet demand.57 The InternationalCenter for Living Aquatic Resources Management(ICLARM) prepared a Strategic Plan in 1992which estimated that an increase in the global fishcatch of just over 25 million tonnes might bepossible, given ideal management conditions andfull conservation of all critical habitats, includingcoral reefs.58

Figure 6. Historic Fish Production and Alternative Scenarios for 2010

Source: Based on Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of the World’sFisheries and Aquaculture 1996 (FAO, Rome, 1997), pp. 24-25

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Will the optimistic scenarios be realized? A keydifficulty in achieving maximum sustainable yieldsfrom capture fisheries lies in the huge uncertaintieswhich still exist concerning the actual numbers,distribution and inter-species relationships of fishstocks. Devising the best fisheries managementpractices will be highly complex, with differentmeasures needed in different regions, at differenttimes, and subject to different climatic or otherenvironmental conditions.

Environmental degradation is likely to provethe most important constraint on raising fishproduction. Pollution, sedimentation, mangroveclearance, wetland drainage, development, andtourism are all taking a heavy toll on the world’scoastlines and, currently, the damage to spawninggrounds and fish stocks is rarely considered incoastal development decisions. Degradation offreshwater ecosystems is widespread in bothdeveloped and developing countries, as pressuresmount from urban and industrial wastewaterstreams, agricultural run-off and diversion of riverflow by dams, canalization, and other waterengineering works. Natural fisheries are threat-ened by pollution and disrupted water flow. Aquac-ulture is even more vulnerable to pollution; fishfarm stocks, living at high population densities andunable to migrate, are highly sensitive to degradedwater quality. This may be an under-rated threat,particularly to inland fish farming in rapidly devel-oping countries.

Finally, climate change is one of the greatunknowns affecting capture fisheries. Watertemperature is an obvious variable that alters the

behavior and viability of all organisms in theaquatic environment. Fish cannot regulate theirown temperature and must migrate to areas wherethey can thrive. Even small temperature fluctua-tions have been shown to affect greatly theproductivity of certain fish stocks, both positivelyand negatively.59 Even greater changes might bewrought by rising sea level, since coastal habitatswill be altered, and by disruptions in ocean currentsand surface winds, which are of critical importancein delivering nutrients and transporting fish duringtheir larval stages. All that can be predicted at thisstage is that the distribution of major fish stocks islikely to shift and that certain species will change indominance or commercial importance.60

The More Likely ScenarioIn the short time available between now and 2010,it appears unlikely that the optimistic scenarioproposed by the FAO and other analysts will berealized. Even if effective management wereintroduced immediately, it will take time for stocksto recover and production would grow only gradu-ally. Given current fishery regimes, overfishing islikely to get worse. Higher real prices for fish willprobably continue to create financial incentives forfurther investment in industrial-scale fishing efforton already depleted stocks. In many developingcountries, population pressure and the shortage ofalternative employment will perpetuate the statusof fishing as an employment of last resort. If noeffective action is taken, annual production frommarine capture fisheries for direct human con-sumption could fall from around 50 million tonnesat present to about 40 million tonnes in 2010.61

Source of Production Pessimistic Scenario Optimistic Scenario

Aquaculture 27 39Capture fisheries1 80 105Sub-total 107 144Less (for non-food uses) 33 30Available for human consumption 74 114

Table 2. Projected Supplies of Fish for Human Consumption, 2010

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of the World’s Fisheries and Aquaculture 1996 (FAO,Rome, 1997), table 2, p. 27.1 If capture fisheries management is not improved, it is likely that production will drop below current levels.


Capture trends clearly indicate that continuedincreased fishing effort will barely increase theglobal catch but will lead to further declines incatch per unit of effort.62 Conflicts for fishingrights will escalate, both between large-scaleindustrial fleets and small artisanal fishers, andamong the industrial fleets of rival fishing nations.In both cases, the likely losers will be small-scalefishers who lack the political organization andsophisticated equipment of their larger rivals.Higher prices will also encourage more fish to betraded, tilting further the distribution of the globalharvest from developing to developed countries.These trends together have serious implications forfood security among low-income coastal countries,and for employment. For example, the fishingsector directly or indirectly employs some 8 million

people in sub-Saharan Africa and fish provide 18percent of total protein intake in the region’s diet.Most of the demersal fish catch is already ex-ported, and per capita fish consumption declined byover 20 percent between 1990 and 1994. Yetharvests will have to increase 50 percent by 2010,just to maintain current consumption levels.63

6. Possible SolutionsDemand for food fish will rise by between 34 and46 percent by 2010. It is possible that this demandcan be met, but only if significant changes aremade in fisheries management. Over-exploited fishstocks must be given time to recover; a reductionin fishing pressure today will yield bigger and long-term harvests tomorrow. Other commercially

Box 2. Aquaculture and the Use of Fish Feeds

In 1995, about 31 million tonnes of the global fish harvest was processed into fish meal and oils, for use in animal and fishfeeds. The fish destined for non-food uses are mainly low-value pelagics, some caught as by-catch, the majority deliberatelyharvested to supply the animal and fish feed market. The reduction process takes about 5 tonnes of fish (wet basis) to make 1tonne of fish meal (dry basis). In 1995, therefore, 31 million tonnes of fish ended up as about 6 million tonnes of fish meal andoil.

This fish meal and oil found its way into some 560 million tonnes of prepared feeds for livestock and farmed fish. Fish feedsrepresent only a very small part of all animal and feed production. Global production data for fish feeds are not collected byFAO and total production volumes are uncertain. Estimates of fish feed production for 1996 range from 6 to 18 million tonnes(1-3 percent), with more than half of production concentrated in Asia.

This relatively small volume of fish feed contains a disproportionately high quantity of fish meal and oils; the other main proteinconstituents being animal products, grains and soybeans. This is because carnivorous farmed fish are high on the food chainand require a high-quality, high-protein feed. The proportion of fish feed accounted for by fish meal ranges from 25 to 50percent in shrimp feeds to 50 to 75 percent in compound feeds fed to other species.

Assuming that, on average, half of fish food is fish meal, it follows that at least half of all fish meal is fed to fish, rather than toanimals.

Much aquaculture is not dependent on fish feeds. Most fish farms in fact raise species groups feeding low in the food chain andneeding no supplements. Fish ponds in much of Asia utilize animal waste or run-off from fields to promote algal growth tonourish the fish. Farm-made or commercial fish feeds are used primarily in the production of carnivorous species; one estimateis that just over half of all fish feed is fed to salmonids and shrimp, and the remainder to catfish, eel, and a variety of non-carniverous species such as carp, tilapia and milkfish. The use of compound feeds appears to be increasing in previouslyextensive fish ponds, for example, in China.

It has been estimated that 3 million tonnes of farmed finfish and crustaceans produced in 1995 (representing about 14 percentof total aquaculture fishery production) would have required over 1.5 million tonnes of fish meal and fish oil in feeds, equivalentto more than 5 million tonnes of pelagic fish.

Salmonids and shrimp are relatively efficient food converters, requiring 2-3 units of fish input to produce 1 unit of fish output.These species are net consumers rather than producers of protein. The conversion of pelagic fish to fish meal used foraquafeeds leads to some double counting of fish production, once as capture fishery landings and again as aquacultureproduction.

Source: Based on Tacon, A.G.J. “Aquafeeds and Feeding Strategies,” Review of The State of World Aquaculture, FAOFisheries Circular No. 886 (FAO, Rome, 1997).


important fisheries must be managed in a way thatbetter protects the structure, productivity, function,and diversity of entire aquatic ecosystems (includ-ing both fish habitats and ecologically relatedspecies). The productivity of aquaculture must bemaximized through diversification, less pollutingproduction methods and – in many countries –more sympathetic integration with its local socialand economic environment.

Fisheries management is immensely complex,involving disputed allocation rights over a globalresource, issues of national sovereignty, private andpublic sector interests, economic development,employment, and basic food security. Everything iscomplicated by scientific uncertainties over thenumber and distribution of fish in the sea. Despitethe difficulties, the past few years have seen aflurry of activity, at international and national level,aimed at shifting fisheries management onto a lessself-destructive course. This section outlines someof the institutional, economic and technologicalreforms which might help the global fishing indus-try to remain viable over the coming decades.

Conserving the Global ResourceThe problem of overfishing encouraged by openaccess (whereby anyone has the right to harvest acommon resource) is, in principle, addressed by theUnited Nations Conventions on Fishing andConservation of the Living Resources of the HighSeas (UNCLOS I, II and III).64 These agreementsestablished national control over fishing rightswithin 200-nautical-mile Exclusive EconomicZones (EEZs) and curbed the fishing free-for-allwithin national waters. The 1995 Agreement onthe Conservation and Management of StraddlingFish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocksadvocates use of the precautionary principle toprotect fish which move between EEZs and theHigh Seas and are therefore vulnerable to beingfished twice over. A further important achievementis the FAO’s Code of Conduct on ResponsibleFisheries (1995) which sets out principles andpolicies for more sustainable management of theworld’s marine resources. UNCLOS III alsocontains provisions for more responsible fisheriesmanagement, such as requirements for environ-

mental impact assessments and monitoring,pollution controls, and conservation of threatenedecosystems or species.

A major weakness in all such internationalagreements to date has been unwillingness on thepart of important fishing nations to commit them-selves. Scientific uncertainty regarding the size offish stocks and “sustainable maximum yields” hasoften been exploited by powerful fishing industrylobbies, and made the pretext for delaying orignoring implementation requirements. UNCLOSIII waited 12 years to come into force and, as ofFebruary 1999, only 3 of the top 10 fishing coun-tries have signed and ratified the Straddling FishStocks Agreement.65 Only one of the next ten(Iceland) has done so. Even when in force,monitoring and enforcement of agreementsremains an immense challenge, especially fordeveloping countries lacking the financial andsophisticated technological resources required.

A number of fisheries experts are now sug-gesting that the way forward lies in sidesteppingthe whole question of “how many fish are in thesea?” and focusing on reduced catch effort, ratherthan reduced catch. In late 1998, the FAO con-vened negotiations aimed at reaching a non-bindingagreement on global fishing overcapacity. Monitor-ing the number of boats, and when and where theyare at sea, is a simpler matter than seeking tocontrol fish landings from each individual boat. Anumber of countries, both developed and develop-ing, have introduced conservation and managementmeasures aimed at restricting entry into the fishingindustry and reducing catch size. Policy instru-ments include Individual Transferable Quotas(ITQs) allocated among fishers and tradeable onthe market, government buy-back schemes forfishing vessels combined with moratoria on entryof new vessels into the fishery, and “no-take”zones where fishing for one or more species istemporarily banned.66

These schemes have led to some decreases inlocal fleet capacity, and improved efficiency amongthe fishers that remain.67 The administrative costs,and equity issues involved in forcing out less


efficient fishers, are daunting obstacles to imple-mentation of such measures in many developingcountries. The dilemma could be eased if commer-cial fishers were charged for access to the fisher-ies resource (most governments currently do notcharge national vessels for use of EEZs) and if theprices paid by major fish importing countries(predominantly the industrialized countries) were toreflect better the value and scarcity of the fish theyare importing. Economic issues are discussedbelow. Priorities for future international negotia-tions should include more explicit allocation ofresource rights to individual users, and the develop-ment of concrete mechanisms, includingtransnational agreements, to compensate thosewho will inevitably lose out as fishing effort isreduced.

The need for more comprehensive protectionof ocean ecosystems, habitats and species hasbeen addressed in a number of recent globalagreements relating to conserving biodiversity andcombating environmental degradation of coastalareas.68 A key test in their successful implementa-tion will be the willingness of countries tostrengthen the existing system of Marine ProtectedAreas (MPAs), which lags far behind the equiva-lent terrestrial protected area system. Currentlythere are over 1,300 MPAs located in 18 differentregions around the world but most are relativelysmall and there is little information regarding theireffectiveness. A recent report suggests that, toprovide adequate protection for the species withinthem, MPAs will probably need to be much largerthan their current size, or should be linked in anetwork to protect smaller critical areas.69 Moni-toring to ensure that they are genuinely “off limits”will also need to be improved.

Improving Fisheries Management

Economic Efficiency: In common with othernatural resource-based industries, fishing is oftencharacterized by distorted economic incentives,which encourage overcapacity, inefficiency andwasteful consumption patterns. The total costs ofthe global fishing fleet exceed revenues by at least$US50 billion annually.70 The losses are borne by

governments, in the form of tax breaks and low-interest loans, payments for fishing rights in foreignwaters, and direct subsidies. One recent estimateis that global fishing subsidies account for aminimum of 20 to 25 percent of current fishingrevenues, and probably closer to 40 percent.71

Analysts at the FAO have calculated that, for theworld’s fishing fleets to break even, fleet capacitywould have to be reduced by about 50 percent, orcosts reduced by over 40 percent, or ex-vessel fishprices raised by more than 70 percent, or somecombination of the three.72 Subsidies whichencourage fishers to remain in, or enter, an alreadyovercapitalized industry worsen the pressures onfish stocks and increase the number of individualswho will suffer when resource or economicscarcity eventually forces them out of the business.A few countries have already begun to reassessthe relative costs and benefits of supportingcapture fisheries or aquaculture compared withother uses of marine resources.

Production Efficiency: There is much scope forimproving the efficiency with which fish are caughtand utilized. The problem of growing volumes ofbycatch and discard mortality is now the subject ofintensive study and experimentation in manycountries. Vessels are often pressured into fishingfast and indiscriminately by extremely limitedfishing seasons (the U.S. Pacific halibut fishery“season” is one or two days). Reduced fishingeffort would allow more time to fish with care andselectivity. Pending improved management re-gimes, technology regulation can help. High Seasdriftnets have already been banned, many fisheriesspecify minimum mesh sizes to allow smaller fishto escape and inventions such as the Turtle Ex-cluder Device have proved successful in reducingmortality rates among non-target marine animals.Utilization of these and other techniques, andenforcement, varies widely. Norway, for example,has made a major effort to use various geartechnologies to reduce bycatch mortality and hasenacted a ban on discards. Some African countriesare taking an alternative route which concentrateson developing markets for bycatch species, so thatthey are no longer wasted.73 World-wide, however,the sheer volume of fish harvests so far continues


to offset the benefits of technology-inducedbycatch reductions.

Research: Information regarding key biologicaland economic parameters of marine ecosystems,and related fisheries markets, is still lacking orinadequate. Fisheries science lags far behindagronomic science and there is an urgent need forit to catch up. To take just two examples: improvedknowledge of predator-prey interactions amongspecies would enable selective fishing to maximizeyields of the desired species.74 Greater understand-ing of the environmental factors affecting fishlarvae survival and mortality rates would enablemore accurate prediction of future population size.(Because larvae exist in their billions, even smallpercentage changes in their survival rate can havevery large effects on the mature stock.)75 Majoropportunities also exist, especially in developingcountry fisheries, in finding new methods forreducing post-harvest losses and adding value tothe fish catch. National governments, investors anddonor agencies should consider making moredevelopment investments in post-harvest opera-tions, including processing, and fewer in fishingvessels and gear.76

Aquaculture could also become more produc-tive if greater research effort were applied togenetic improvement of commonly farmed species.Genetic improvement of fish is estimated to lagbehind similar advances in terrestrial species bynearly 50 years and the genetic base of currentlyfarmed stock may actually be deteriorating to thepoint where average growth performance isreduced.77 Another important area is the improve-ment of fish feeds, both to reduce diversion offood-grade fish away from direct human consump-tion and to reduce nutrient pollution from unusedfood. Researchers are experimenting with alterna-tive sources of protein such as soybean meal andnon-food grade fishery products to replace fishmeal in fish feeds. More attention should be paid towhat is currently fed to herbivorous fish. Commer-cial fish feed for use on non-intensive fish farms, inparticular, is often overformulated, and reducedprotein input would minimize waste and waterpollution from excess nutrients.78 It is generally

expected that strong demand from Asia foravailable feed resources will have a considerableimpact on world commodity markets and feedprices; aquaculture will find itself facing competi-tion for protein supplies from humans and the muchlarger livestock production sector. A key challengefor the feed-dependent sector of aquaculture is theneed for it to become a net contributor to worldfish production, rather than a net consumer offood-grade fish that would otherwise be consumeddirectly by humans.

Raising Consumer AwarenessProsperous consumers in the industrialized coun-tries and urban centres world-wide have relativelylow awareness regarding the fish they eat. Thereare few information guides to purchasing and,while fish prices have risen, consumers have beenprotected to some extent by processing advanceswhich convert low-value fish into more appealingfoods such as fish fingers, fish cakes and productssuch as “imitation crab.” Currently, therefore, themarket exerts little pressure on fishing industrypractices. An important exception, which demon-strates the potential power of consumer choice, isthe clear swing in the United States and NorthernEurope towards tuna caught with pole and line, so-called “dolphin-friendly” tuna. More recently,swordfish have become the subject of a consumerboycott in the United States. Many environmentallypreferable fishing technologies exist, but areresisted by an industry which sees additional costs,loss of competitiveness and no market incentive.This attitude has been reinforced by recent deci-sions of the World Trade Organization, which hasnot upheld the right of individual nations to discrimi-nate against fish products caught with environmen-tally-damaging technology.

One attempt to counter this trend is theestablishment of the Marine Stewardship Council(MSC). Founded jointly by Unilever, one of theworld’s largest purchasers of frozen fish, and theWorld-Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), the Councilaims to stimulate the market for sustainablyharvested fish. In 1998, the MSC launched anaccreditation scheme under which certifiedproducers must meet agreed environmental


standards.79 Unilever, which has about 20 percentof the European and U.S. frozen fish market, haspledged that all its products will be accredited bythe MSC by 2005.80 Given the political and admin-

istrative difficulties of reforming the fishing indus-try at source, market pressure from the consumeris likely to prove an invaluable aid to governments.

Emily Matthews is a Senior Associate in WRI’s Information Program. Her work focuses on natural re-source use and development paths consistent with sustainable production and consumption.

Allen Hammond is WRI’s Senior Scientist and Director of Strategic Analysis. His work spans indicators,consumption, and the uses of information technology for sustainable development.


1. The apparent sudden jump in production over thereported 1995 figure (113 million tonnes) withwhich readers may be familiar is explained by arecalculation of aquaculture production in China.Previous under-reporting by China (reportingshelled weight of molluscs, rather than live weight)has now been corrected by the FAO for the timeseries 1950-96. The new data are incorporated inFigure 1 and Figure 3 of this report. For additionalinformation, see FAO Fisheries Department,“China’s underestimated national aquacultureproduction and global contribution addressed andrectified by FAO,” internet reference: http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/FISHERY/trends/china/chinaef.htm.

2. 1996 world production data are: pig meat: 79.3million tonnes (mt); chicken and turkey meat: 53.7mt; beef and veal: 53.3 mt; sheep meat: 7.3 mt.(FAOSTAT).

3. Williams, Meryl, The Transition in the Contribu-tion of Living Aquatic Resources to Food Secu-rity, Food, Agriculture and the EnvironmentDiscussion Paper No. 13 (International FoodPolicy Research Institute, Washington D.C., 1996),p. 3.

4. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations. Sara Montanaro, e-mail communication,24 August 1998.

5. Rana, K.J., “Global Overview of Production andProduction Trends,” Review of the State of WorldAquaculture, FAO Fisheries Circular No. 886(FAO, Rome, 1997).

6. The Ecologist Eds., “The Commons: WhereCommunity Has Authority,” Whose CommonFuture? Reclaiming the Commons (Philadelphia,PA: New Society Publishers, in conjunction withEarthscan Publications, 1993). Cited in State of theWorld 1998 (Worldwatch Institute, WashingtonD.C., 1998), p. 69.

7. Lem, A. and Z.H. Shehadeh, “InternationalTrade,” Review of the State of World Aquaculture,FAO Fisheries Circular No. 886 (FAO, Rome, 1997).

8. Ibid.

9. FAOSTAT, Fisheries, on-line database.


11. Cohen, Joel et al, “Estimates of Coastal Popula-tion,” Science, Vol. 278, 14 November, 1997, pp.1213-1214. Revision of earlier estimate (1990) of 60percent.



14. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations, The State of World Fisheries andAquaculture 1996 (FAO, Rome, 1997), Table 3, p.36.

15. Grainger, R.J.R. and S.M. Garcia, Chronicles ofMarine Fishery Landings (1950-1994) FAOFisheries Technical Paper 359 (FAO, Rome, 1996),p. 27.

16. Op. Cit. note 14, p. 33.

17. Ibid, pp. 49, 51.

18. Porter, Gareth, Estimating Overcapacity in theGlobal Fishing Fleet (World Wildlife Fund,Washington D.C., 1998), pp. 5-6.

19. Garcia, S.M. and C. Newton, “Current Situation,Trends and Prospects in World Fisheries,” E.K.Pikitch, D.D. Huppert, and M.P. Sissenwine,Global Trends: Fisheries Management, AmericanFisheries Society (AFS) Symposium 20 (Bethesda,MD: AFS. 1997).

20. Op. Cit. note 18, p.11.

21. The London Conference on Overfishing, 1947.

22. Rothschild, Brian J., “How Bountiful are OceanFisheries?”, Consequences, Volume 2, Number 1,1996, pp. 16-17.

Notes



24. Op. Cit. note 14, p. 37.

25. World Resources Institute, World ResourcesReport 1998-99 (WRI, Washington D.C., 1998),Data Table 13.2, p. 316.

26. McGinn, Anne Platt, Rocking the Boat: Conserv-ing Fisheries and Protecting Jobs. WorldwatchPaper No. 142 (Worldwatch Institute, Washington,D.C., 1998), p. 14.

27. “Newfoundland to Ease Ban on Fishing; SomeSay It’s Too Soon,” New York Times, 18 April,1997.

28. Raloff, Janet, “Fishing for Answers: Deep SeaTrawls Leave Destruction in Their Wake – But ForHow Long?”, Science News, Vol. 150, October 26,1996.

29. Op. Cit. note 25, p. 196.

30. For example, United Nations Food and AgricultureOrganization, The State of World Fisheries andAquaculture 1996 (FAO, Rome, 1997), p. 43.

31. Pauly, Daniel, and V. Christensen, “PrimaryProduction Required to Sustain Global Fisheries,”Nature, 16 March, 1995.

32. Pauly, Daniel et al, “Fishing Down Marine FoodWebs,” Science, 6, Vol. 279, February 1998, pp 860-863.

33. Alverson, Dayton L., et al, A Global Assessment ofFisheries Bycatch and Discards, (FAO, Rome,1994), pp. 37-41.

34. Ibid, p. 21.

35. Ibid, p. 26.

36. Safina, Carl, “The World’s Imperilled Fish,”Scientific American, November 1995, pp. 46-53.

37. Op. Cit. note 33, p. 24.

38. Ibid, p. 50.

39. Speer, Lisa et al, Hook, Line and Sinking: TheCrisis in Marine Fisheries (New York: NaturalResources Defense Council, February 1997).

40. Auster, P.J. et al, “The Impacts of Mobile FishingGear on Seafloor Habitats in the Gulf of Maine(Northwest Atlantic): Implications for Conserva-tion of Fish Populations,” Reviews in Fisheries

Science 4, pp. 185-202. Cited in Les Kaufman andPaul Dayton, “Impacts of Marine ResourceExtraction,” in Nature’s Services: SocietalDependence on Natural Ecosystems, GretchenDaily (ed.) (Island Press, Washington D.C. 1997),p. 282.

41. Bryant, Dirk et al, Reefs at Risk (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington D.C., 1998), p. 8.

42. International Center for Living Aquatic ResourcesManagement, Reefbase: A Global Database onCoral Reefs and Their Resources. CD-ROM.(ICLARM, Manila, The Philippines, 1997).

43. Barber, C.V. and V.R. Pratt, Sullied Seas: Strategiesfor Combating Cyanide Fishing in Southeast Asiaand Beyond, (World Resources Institute andInternational Marinelife Alliance, Washington,D.C., 1997), p. vii.

44. Op. Cit. note 41, p. 15.

45. Borgese, E.M. et al, Ocean Yearbook 12, (Univer-sity of Chicago Press, Chicago and London, 1996),p. 250.

46. Boyd, Claude E., and Jason W. Clay, “ShrimpAquaculture and the Environment,” ScientificAmerican, June 1998, pp. 58-65.

47. Ibid.

48. Ibid. Higher loss figures from Hamilton, LawrenceS. et al, “Mangrove Forests: An UndervaluedResource of the Land and of the Sea,” OceanYearbook No. 8 (1989) (Ed. Elisabeth MannBorgese et al, University of Chicago Press,Chicago and London, 1989), pp. 266-267, p. 270.

49. Lawrence S. et al, “Mangrove Forests: AnUndervalued Resource of the Land and of theSea,” Ocean Yearbook No. 8 (1989) (Ed. ElisabethMann Borgese et al, University of Chicago Press,Chicago and London, 1989), p. 269, footnotes 46and 47.

50. “Aquaculture: A Solution, or Source of NewProblems?”, Nature, Vol. 386, 13 March, 1997, p.109.

51. “Protests Over Shrimp Farms Spread ThroughIndia,” Third World Resurgence, No. 59, July 1995,pp. 20-21.

52. Op. Cit. note 50, p. 109.

53. Subasinghe, R. “Fish Health and Quarantine,” in


FAO Fisheries Circular No. 886.

54. National Research Council, Marine Aquaculture:Opportunities for Growth (National AcademyPress, Washington D.C., 1992), p. 104.

55. Kane, Hal, “Growing Fish in Fields,” World Watch,September/October 1993, pp. 23-24.

56. Westlund, L., Apparent Historical Consumptionand Future Demand for Fish and Fishery Prod-ucts - Exploratory Calculations. For the Confer-ence on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheriesto Food Security, Kyoto, Japan (FAO, Rome, 1995).

57. Op. Cit. note 3, pp. 25-26.

58. ICLARM (International Center for Living AquaticResources Management), ICLARM’s Strategy forInternational Research on Living AquaticResources Management (ICLARM, Manila, ThePhilippines, 1992).

59. Good examples being the reported correlationbetween high salmon catches and the “AleutianLow” (persistent low barometric pressure) in theNorth Pacific, and the collapse in catches of thePeruvian anchoveta, which was precipitated byoverfishing but was also attributed to a failure ofthe seasonal cold upwelling, due to the climaticphenomenon known as El Niño.

60. Op. Cit. note 22, pp. 21-22.

61. Op. Cit. note 14, p. 27.

62. Garcia, S.M. and C. Newton, Current Situation,Trends and Prospects in World Capture Fisheries.Paper presented at the Conference on FisheriesManagement. Global Trends. Seattle (Washington,USA), 14-16 June, 1994, p. 26.

63. Op. Cit. note 14, pp. 98, 101-102.

64. The first UNCLOS agreement was adopted in 1958and came into force in 1966. The most recentagreement, UNCLOS III, was adopted in 1982 andcame into force in 1994.

65. United Nations, “Status of the Convention andRelated Instruments.” Updates are available on-line at: http://www.un.org/Depts/los/losconv1.htm#StatusConvention. The threecountries to have signed and ratified are: UnitedStates of America, Russian Federation, Norway.

66. Op. Cit. note 14, p. 19.

67. Op. Cit. note 26, pp. 62-66.

68. The United Nations Convention on BiologicalDiversity, the Jakarta Mandate on Marine andCoastal Biodiversity and the Washington Declara-tion and Global Plan of Action for the Protection ofthe Marine Environment from Land-Based Activi-ties.

69. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, TheWorld Bank, and the World Conservation Union, AGlobal Representative System of Marine Pro-tected Areas, Vols. I-IV, Graeme Kelleher, ChrisBleakley, and Sue Wells, eds. (The World Bank,Washington D.C., 1995).

70. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations, Marine Fisheries and the Law of the Sea:A Decade of Change, FAO Fisheries Circular No.853 (FAO, Rome, 1993).

71. Milazzo, Matteo, Subsidies in World Fisheries: AReexamination. World Bank Technical Paper No.406, Fisheries Series (World Bank, WashingtonD.C., April 1998).

72. Op. Cit. note 62, pp. 23-24.

73. Op. Cit. note 33, pp. 149, 147.

74. Sanders, Michael, Impacts of Predator-PreyRelationships on Harvesting Strategies andManagement. Paper prepared for the Conferenceon the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries toFood Security, Kyoto, Japan, 1995.

75. Op. Cit. note 22, p. 20.

76. Op. Cit. note 3, p. 17.

77. Eknath, A.E. et al, “Approaches to national fishbreeding programs: pointers from a tilapia pilotstudy,” Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly 14 (2): pp.10-12. Cited in Williams (Op. Cit. note 3), p. 8.

78. Tacon, A.G.J. “Aquafeeds and Feeding Strate-gies,” Review of The State of World Aquaculture,FAO Fisheries Circular No. 886 (FAO, Rome, 1997).

79. MSC News, the newsletter of the Marine Steward-ship Council, Issue No. 6, July 1998.

80. “Unilever in fight to save global fisheries,”Financial Times, 22 February, 1996.

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