Critical Assessment of available Radar Precipitation Estimation techniques and Development of...

Critical Assessment of available Radar Precipitation Estimation techniques and Development of Innovative approaches for Environmental Management

Starting Point

PADRE

DARTH

May 1998 - Meeting at Teolo

June 1999 - RANSHA

Feb 2000 - RAINFLOOD

Feb 2001 - CARPE DIEM

Jan 1st 2002

Once upon a time …..Once upon a time …..

What is CARPE DIEM ?

It is a shared-cost project co-founded by the Research DG of the European

Commission within the RTD activities of a generic nature of the Environment and Sustainable Development sub-program

(5th Framework Programme)

Duration: 36 months Status: started Period : 01/2002 - 12/2004

General OverviewGeneral Overview

7 European Countries (I,D,UK,FIN,S,IRL,ES) 9 Partners

• 2 National Weather Services (SMHI, FMI)• 1 Regional Weather Service (ARPA-SMR)• 3 Universities (U.Essex, U.Barcelona, NUID)• 2 Research Institutes (DLR, ISAO-CNR)• 1 Research private company (PROGEA)

• One sub-contractor (SMC)

Total Budget 2,501,444 € EU-Founded 1,659,747 € Total work-load 476 man-months ( 395 + 81)

General OverviewGeneral Overview

The ConsortiumThe ConsortiumGeneral OverviewGeneral Overview

Problem to be solvedProblem to be solved

Flooding is a major world-wide problem which seems to have increased in severity within the last decade.

The crucial role-played by rainfall accumulation, that is the main forcing variable of surface hydrological processes, need to be better examined to understand the flood forecasting uncertainty linked with the present state of the art rainfall estimation and forecasting techniques.

The accuracy of extreme precipitation forecasts and consequent floods forecasts is of extreme importance in preventing loss of life, health and psychological damage and infrastructure and property loss or damage.

Extreme rainfall events are also important in the generation of landslides and benefits in terms of risk assessment will follow from the increased understanding of the generating mechanisms and spatial distribution of heavy rainfalls.

Project ObjectivesProject Objectives


CARPE DIEM aims to improve the quality of flood forecasting for small and medium size catchments developing an innovative methodology to exploit radar data (Doppler moment, reflectivity and polarisation information) in order to enhance rainfall estimation and prediction.

SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVESSCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES

The processing of the retrieved atmospheric parameters so that they can be ported into NWP algorithms. The information injected into the NWP will be processed be to be compatible with the atmospheric state.Improve the techniques for assimilation of radar data in NWP models, with emphasis on the forecasting of flooding events and on nowcasting.Improve the quality of radar products using NWP results.Improve the quality of radar rain retrieving techniques.Establish quality control procedure for filtering raw data.Improve the quality of the rainfall field inputs to hydrological models.Assess the sensitivity of hydrological models to input data.Improve the useful lead-time and reliability of forecasted floods.


GENERAL POSITIVE FALLOUTGENERAL POSITIVE FALLOUT

Generate synergy between radar-meteorologists, numerical modelling groups and hydrologists, as well as river basin managers and flood control/disaster relief personnel.

Improve the transnational collaboration and the complementary skills of the participants.

Involve a panel of pan-European End-Users in the definition of project outcomes.

Involve a panel of pan-European End-Users in the validation of project outcomes.

The essential contribution coming from the End-Users panel ensure that the CARPE DIEM results will be directly put into action with immediate benefits at local/national and European scale. Direct advantages are foreseen in flood management.


ARPA SMR Italy

Servizio ProtezioneCivile

Regione Emilia-Romagna

PC-RERFlood

Management

SMHI SwedenÅngermanälvens

Vattenregleringsföretag

EnergyHydropower

industry

FMI Finland Kemijoki Oy KEJOHydropower

Industry

FMI FinlandFinnish National Road

AdministrationNRA Transport

Univ.Barcelona

SpainServei de Meteorologia

de CatalunyaSMC Weather Forecast

Univ.Barcelona

SpainClavegueram deBarcelona, S.A.

CLABSASewage

management

NUID IrelandEnvironmental

Protection AgencyEPA River Management


Expected impacts: CARPE DIEM’s main goal is to improve the overall quality of flood and flash-flood forecasting. The improvements in severe storm precipitation deposit both estimated and forecasted, are of primary importance, also, for users community beyond that the “flood users”. Ancillary advantages are also expected in other fields.

A better identification of the rain phase, as well as a better snow forecast, is important in all Northern European countries for snow clearance procedure.Better precipitation phase identification is also crucial for forecasting winter floods, which have been severe in Central Europe during the 90s. In heavy winter precipitation the areal distribution of phase determines whether preventive actions should be started against accumulated snow.An improved estimation of rain deposit in urban catchment has a direct feedback into the sewage management.A better understanding of how the Doppler radar data could be used in operational suite of NWP models. In this context weather radar can be used in a secondary role to fill gaps in a network of wind profilers and autosondes. The software tools developed to identify ANAPROP could be easily adapted and adopted for exploitation by a wide range of end users, particularly weather bureaux employing radar to quality-control radar dataThe involvement of members of CARPE DIEM in the HIRLAM team and the COSMO consortium ensures that the assimilation systems developed to ingest radar data are, in future, used in the operational suite of these advanced models.


RELATED PROJECTS

COST-717 – Use of radar observation in hydrological and NWP models.

International HIRLAM-5

COSMO – Consortium for Small scale Modelling.

The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX)

Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP)

A RE A 1S cien tif ic R apporteu rD ata A ss im ilation &N W P im provem en ts

A RE A 2S cien tif ic R apporteu r

Im proving radar derived param eter

A RE A 3S cien tif ic R apporteu r

F lood forecasting

W P 11E nd-U sers 's level of service requ irem en ts

W P 12P roject resu lts dissem ination

W P 1C oordinator

P roject M anagem en t

Structure & workplanStructure & workplan

TSC End-UserPanel

W P 2Extraction of in form ationfrom Dop p ler w in d s

W P 3Data Assim ilation

W P 4Assessm en t of NW P m od el u n certain ityin clu d in g m od els errors

W P 5Assessm et ofim p rovem en ts in NW P

AREA 1Scien tific Rap p orteu rData Assim ilation &NW P im p rovem en ts

W P 6An om alou s p rop ag ation

W P 7Ad van ced su rface rad ar-b asedrain fall estim ate ap p lyin g NW P m od el d ata

W P 8Use of p olarim etric rad ar d atafor im p rove th e rad ar rain estim ate

AREA 2Scien tific Rap p orteu r

Im p rovin g rad ar d erived p aram eter

W P 9Assessm en t of th e b ias in th e d ifferen t sou rcesof areal p recip itation estim ates

W P 10In corp oratin g g au g es an d rad ar rain fallin NW P for im p rovin g flood forecastin gin u rb an an d ru ral catch m en ts

AREA 3Scien tific Rap p orteu r

F lood forecastin g

W P 11En d -Users's level of service req u irem en ts

W P 12Project resu lts d issem in ation

W P 1Coord in ator

P roject Man ag em en t



Technical Steering Committee

Dr. Pier Paolo Alberoni Project Co-ordinatior

Dr. Nils Gustafsson Scientific rapporteurs of Area 1 “Data assimilation and NWPimprovements”

Dr. Madhu Chandra Scientific rapporteurs of Area 2 “Use of NWP results toimprove radar products”

Prof. Ezio Todini Scientific rapporteurs of Area 3 “Flood forecasting”

Dr. Andrea Rossa External Member. MeteoSwiss. Chairman of COST 717

Prof. Paolo Burlando External Member. Professor of Hydrology and Waterresources Management at the Swiss Federal Institute ofTechnology (ETH)

Prof. Dusan Zrnic External Member. NSSL-NOAA

Technical Steering CommitteTechnical Steering Committe

Provide advice, criticism and guidance to the Co-ordinator and project participants in order to ensure a more efficient execution of the proposed tasks and WP.

Provide requirements and feedbacks for the correct development of products following specific users’ needs.

Evaluate contributions from all partners and decide on their quality.


WORK PACKAGE COORDINATINGPARTNER

COORDINATINGSCIENTIST

1 Project management ARPA SMR Dr Pier Paolo Alberoni

2 Extraction of information fromDoppler winds

UESSEX Prof. Anthony Holt

3 Data assimilation SMHI Dr. Nils Gustaffson

4 Assessment of NWP modeluncertainty including modes errors

PROGEA Prof. Ezio Todini

5 Assessment of improvements inNWP

ARPA SMR Dr. Pier Paolo Alberoni

6 Anomalous propagation UESSEX Dr. David Bebbington

7 Advanced surface radard-basedrainfall estimate

FMI Dr. Jarmo Koistinen

8 Use of polarimetric radar data forimprove the radar bias estimate

DLR Dr. Madhu Chandra

9 Assessment of the bias in thedifferent sources of arealprecipitation

SMHI Dr. Barbro Johansson

10 Incorporating gauges and radarrainfall estimates in NWP forimproving flood forecasts in urbanand rural catchments

CWRR Dr. Michael Bruen

11 End-users level of servicerequirements

CWRR Dr. Michael B ruen

12 Project results dissemination UBARCELONA Dr. Bernat Codina

WP 1

WP 2

WP 3

WP 4

WP 5

Data Assimilation

WP 6

WP 7

WP 8

Improving radar derivedparameter

WP 9

WP 10

Flood Forecasting

Research Area

Co-ordination Area

Dissemination Area

WP 11 WP 12 Req

uir

emen

ts

Fee

db

ack Results

End- users Area


Months

0 6 12 18 24 30 36

WP

#WP 1

WP 2

WP 3WP 4

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6Milestones M0

WP 5

WP 6WP 7

WP 8

WP 9WP 10

WP 11WP 12

ReportsMeetings

Workshops


We are here

WORK to do

MILESTONECode Time Name Features

M0 0 Start of the project Start of activities 1st TSC meeting

M1 +6 Set-up of basic communicationfacility

Basic end-Users requirements Web site established Critical review of polarisation

techniques

M2 +12 Set-up of assimilation schemes Assessment of radar uncertainty Pre-processing of radar data Definition of multiple Doppler

analysis Definition of hydrometeor phases

based on NWP

M3 +18 Mid-term Implementation of the observationoperator for 4DVAR.

Assessment of errors in the input ofhydrological models

1st workshop, End-Users panelmeeting

2nd TSC meeting End-users Assessment document

M4 +24 Assessment of interaction of NWPand radar data

First results of assimilation Overhanging precipitation

correction First results on flood forecasting

improvements

M5 +30 Assessment of improvement inflood forecasting

Sensitivity studies Impact of Doppler wind on the

4DVAR Test of VSRF system

M6 +36 End of the project Validation of improvements in floodforecasting

Vertical reflectivity profile correction Test of “real-time” model for

ANAPROP modelling 2nd workshop, End-Users panel

meeting End-users Assessment document 3rd TSC meeting



project project deliverablesdeliverables

Great total : 41

First Year: 6+5W.P. Deliverable Deliverable title Deliverydate

Nature Disseminationlevel

1 1.1 Set-up of Technical Steering Committee 2 RE PU

1 1.2 Report of the kick-off Meeting 2 RE PU

1 1.3 1st TSC report 2 RE PU

8 8.1 Critical review of present state of the art multi-polarisation rainfall estimation techniques

4 RE PU

11 11.1 Basic End-Users requirements 6 RE PU

12 12.1 web site 6 O PU

2 2.1 Super-observation dataset 12 DA PU

2 2.2 Maps of the partner 1 region detailing those areasaccessible to dual-Doppler analyses, and any

accessible to three Doppler radars.

12 SI PU

5 5.1 Analysis of severe weather situations 12,24 DA PU

5 5.2 Set-up of VSRF procedure 12 O RE

8 8.2 Climatology of variations in Z-R at different spatialand temporal scales of model input obtained by DP

method

12 RE PU


MUSICMUSICEURAINSAT

Dissemination plan

• End-UsersEnd-Users

• Web siteWeb site

• Conferences Conferences

• Mid-term Workshop (SMHI)Mid-term Workshop (SMHI)

• Final Workshop (ARPA)Final Workshop (ARPA)

• Scientific PapersScientific Papers

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