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MC315

Crisis Planning for Major CitiesCreating CM Capabilities for 21st Century Challenges

SMi Training Presents…

11th July 2013, Central London

Hosted By: David Rubens, MD of David Rubens Associates

Overview:2007 was the first year in the planet’s history that more humans lived in an urban settingthan in a rural one. The move from the country to the city, and the rapid expansion of thenumber of mega-cities, together with the explosive growth of unplanned, unmanagedshanty towns that surround them, is one of the looming problems that strategicplanners of the next generation are going to be facing. Whether it is in the developingmega-cities of Africa, Asia and South America, or the established cities of the developedworld, the reality of a catastrophic failure of city management is no longer merely apossibility, but is a statistical certainty that is inexorably approaching on a daily andmonthly basis.

The potent mixture of high population density; the fragmentation of supply chains forbasic needs combined with ‘just in time’ delivery systems that means that reservestocks are held at the absolute minimum level; the increasing complexity andinterdependence of management systems combined with a decaying infrastructure thatis rapidly degrading due to the lack of investment and long-term strategic management;the increasing development of cities and other urban settings in areas where there is ahigher than normal propensity to natural disasters, whether it is flooding, drought,storms or fire, all of which is taking place in a social environment where disease is bothmore likely to arise and more likely to escalate rapidly into a major health issue, meansthat Crisis Planning for Major Cities is an area of academic study and practitionerdevelopment that is gaining ever greater prominence.

Urban crisis management can be roughly divided into two separate strands: the routinemanagement of ‘daily crises’ that are familiar to any resident of any city in the world –problems with transport, basic services, overflowing drains, emergency repairs and thethousands of major and minor disruptions that are the constant background to the humof city life, and then the ‘catastrophic failures’ that threaten the safety and well-being ofmillions of citizens, and which challenge the viability of the city itself.

We are already seeing increasing numbers of cases where major conurbations arebrought perilously close to the edge of collapse. Examples such as the Fukushimatsunami which, combined with the fear of a radioactive cloud, led within days to asituation where Tokyo was a city of ten million people that was literally running out offood; or Ukraine, where the unprecedented winter weather in December 2012 led tomajor cities being cut off from their supply chains; or New York, where the threat ofcatastrophic storm patterns has led to repeated evacuations of the city; or bush fires inAustralia which rapidly moved beyond the ability of emergency managers to control.These, and countless other similar situations all highlight common concerns: how dowe create a crisis management capability that is robust enough to deal with the hyper-complex and mega-impacts of a modern urban disaster.

This one-day seminar will bring together leading experts in the field of urbanmanagement and crisis planning, and will give all of those involved in these issues,whether from a strategic policy perspective or an active management perspective, anopportunity to share research and insights, experiences and lessons learned. It is ourbelief that the sharing of knowledge and the development of an active community ofurban management experts is the prerequisite for creating effective managementcapabilities appropriate to the challenges of the modern urban world.

MASTERCLASS

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09.00- 09.30 Coffee / Introductions

09.30 -10.30 Chair: David Rubens, David Rubens Associates Setting the Scene: Mega-Cities, Hyper-Complexity and CrisisPlanning 21st century cities are the most complex social groupings onthe planet – and yet we have a greater understanding of howan ant colony or beehive works than we do our own urbanenvironment. If the opening question to this seminar is ‘Do youknow how your city works?’, then the answer is almostcertainly going to be ‘No’. Rather than encouraging activemanagement, modern city management is often limited to thedelivery of controlled failure – responding when a water mainbreaks, a railway line is disrupted, a bridge collapses or thereis a change in weather conditions. This session looks at theissues that need to be considered when framing thediscussion on crisis management and major cities, whetherfrom a local, regional or national government perspective,taking into account the multiple stake-holders that will beinvolved in developing a city-wide management and crisisresponse capability

10.45-11.45 Chair: Graham Brown, London ResiliencePractical Lessons from the Front LineThe London Resilience Partnership is made up of more than170 organisations, including:• The Emergency Services• Local Authorities• Health Organisations (e.g. hospitals, primary care trusts,

the Health Protection Agency)• The Greater London Authority• Transport Companies• Utility Companies• The Military• Central Government• Voluntary Organisations• Business Representatives.

This session looks at the issues surrounding the developmentof an integrated resilience and crisis management communitythat is robust enough to deal with the crisis responsesituations likely to arise in a modern urban setting.

11.45 – 12.00 Morning coffee

12.00 -13.00 Chair: Marco Hekkens, Project FUEL-L (Future UrbanExtremes Littoral - Land)Lessons from the Extreme Edge of Urban Growth and CityManagementProject FUEL-L is a multi-disciplinary research into thecombined effects of migration towards the mega-urbanconglomerations, in particular those cities built in coastalregions within the developing woprld. Project FUEL-L studiesthe drivers behind, and potential effects of any downwardspiral caused by a growing imbalance between the presentand future ‘human requirements and expectations’ and theactual delivery of these demands. This is especially timely asthe number of mega-cities of >10million population areprojected to grow from the current nineteen to twenty-sevenin 2020 and thirty-seven in 2025, with most of that growth

coming in unplanned and unmanaged slum settlements thatare associated with the mega-cities of Africa, Asia and SouthAmerica. An urban environment characterized by trafficcongestion, pollution (air, water and natural environment),energy shortages, illegal development and creeping (and oftenrushing) expansion at the peripheries will need to be able torespond to, if not manage, the ever growing likelihoods ofcatastrophic and fast-moving health hazards and other risksassociated with a self-fuelling cycle of social andgeographical exclusion and increasing poverty. Anexamination of the challenges being faced at the extremeouter edges of urban management will undoubtedly highlightissues being faced by urban planners and managers workingin less volatile conditions.

13.00 – 14.00 Lunch

14.00-15.00 Chair: TBC Social Media and Urban Crisis ManagementSocial media is undoubtedly the single most significantdevelopment in urban crisis management over the last tenyears. From the days when the sole means of alerting thepopulation to an impending disaster was an announcement onthe radio, we have now come to a situation when real-timeupdates are available from as many people as have mobilephones and access to the internet. Whilst there are still manyareas where the potential impact of this still developing urbancrisis management tool remain unclear, the ability to harnessthe power of social media is one that is going to beincreasingly critical to urban crisis planners and operationsmanagers across the globe.

15.00-15.45 Chair: David Rubens Incident Command Systems for Urban Crisis ManagementHowever much planning and exercising is done prior to amajor incident, the reality within any crisis response situationis that the fog of chaos soon descends, and pre-plannedresponse are almost immediately rendered either irrelevantor inoperable. It is the ability to develop ad hoc responses,based on available resources and the collaboration betweenwhichever teams happen to be on the ground at the time, thathas the greatest impact on the success or otherwise of theresponse operations. 9/11, Hurricane Katarina, Fukushima,Haiti, the Utoya massacre in Norway have all taught uslessons about how a dependency on a centralised commandand control system can lead to a breakdown in effectivecommunications and decision-making frameworks. Thissession looks at the strengths and weaknesses of presentlyaccepted Incident Command Systems, and offers lessonsfrom the cutting edge of academic research into themanagement of ICS within hyper-complex disaster scenarios.

15.45 – 16.00 Afternoon tea

16.00-17.00 Open DiscussionIt is expected that all participants in this event will bring theirown skills, experiences and insights to the room, and thatthere will be real value in sharing those experiences in around-table discussion with other like-minded practitioners.Although the whole day will be run in an open and fully inter-active way, the last session will create a space where theparticipants can share their ideas, as well as identifysignificant points for future investigation.

FULL DAY PROGRAMME

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Your Masterclass Leaders:David Rubens, MD of David Rubens Associates, holds an MSc in Security and RiskManagement from Leicester University, where he is a Visiting Lecturer and DissertationSupervisor on their Security, Terrorism and Policing programme. He was a Visiting Lecturer(2009-‘10), on the Strategic Leadership Programme at the Security and ResilienceDepartment, Cranfield University, UK Defence Academy, focusing on terrorism and publicpolicy, and the management of complex multi-agency programmes. He is currently on theProfessional Doctorate programme at Portsmouth University Department of Criminology &Justice, where his Doctorate research involves developing models of strategic managementat the extremes of organisational complexity, looking at issues of capability development,decision-making and multi-agency interoperability in highly-unstable situations such asnatural disasters, corporate failures and government-level crisis management scenarios.

Graham Brown, London Resilience, has been involved at the highest level of strategicplanning for civil contingencies and urban management. His roles have covered majorincident planning and response, pan-London strategic consequence management, BusinessContinuity Management and national-level Risk Assessment. Graham managed the LondonResilience planning for the 2012 London Olympics.

Marco Hekkens, Project FUEL-L, was formerly a Colonel in the Royal Netherlands MarinesCorps, was Deputy Commander of Netherlands Naval Forces, and has acted as a senioradvisor to NATO, European and African governments on issues concerning strategicplanning and capability development. As leader of the Project FUEL-L team, Marco iscurrently involved in issues surrounding the rapid growth of unplanned and unmanagedmega-cities in the coastal regions of the developing world.

About David Rubens AssociatesDavid Rubens Associates is a specialist corporate security consultancy offering strategicsecurity services to individuals and organisations across the world. DRA has worked withgovernment agencies, NGO’s, international conglomerates and major global events, andbrings a mixture of strategic vision, operational experience and academic research to all ofits projects, however large or small.

Why you should attend:This one-day seminar offers an opportunity to sharetop-level practitioner insight as well as cutting-edgeacademic research into all aspects of crisismanagement and strategic planning as it relates toProtecting Critical National Infrastructure. Comingfrom a systems-management and network-centricapproach, the material within the programmereflects the need to approach issues of PCNI from awider and higher perspective than merely protectingand maintaining individual components on a case-by-case basis. All material is designed to giveparticipants a deeper understanding of PCNI thatwill be immediately applicable to their own workingenvironment.

Who should attend:• Senior managers responsible for any aspect of

PCNI or working with agencies involved in CNI.

• Policy-makers responsible for managing CNI withintheir own jurisdictions

• Strategists, Crisis Management specialists,academics and others who are engaged with, andcan make a contribution to, this issues covered inthis event.

CRISIS PLANNING FOR MAJOR CITIES11th July 2013, Central London

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