Crisil Bop First Cut_sep 2014

8/10/2019 Crisil Bop First Cut_sep 2014

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CRISIL Economy First Cut Indias current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to $7.8 billion (1.7% of GDP) in Q1, fiscal 2015 from $21.8 billion (4.8% of GDP) in

Q1, fiscal 2014. The sharp correction in CAD was driven by a pick-up in merchandise exports coupled with a contraction in imports.

Capital flows stood at $19.8 billion almost double of last quarter buoyed by an increase in both foreign institutional inflows (FIIs)

as well as foreign direct investments (FDI). With capital flows exceeding CAD in Q1 , there was an accretion of $11.2 billion to Indias

foreign exchange reserves.

Merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 31.2% y-o-y to $34.6 billion in Q1, fiscal 2015 as exports growth accelerated to 10.6%while imports declined by 6.5% compared to the same quarter a year ago. The high export growth came on a low base of 1.5%

fall in Q1, last fiscal and is unlikely to sustain next quarter as the same base effect becomes unfavourable merchandise

exports grew by a whopping 11.9% in Q2, fiscal 2014 (Figure 1)

Merchandise imports, which declined primarily due to gold imports restrictions, are also likely to pick-up as demand recovers

with higher GDP growth. Nascent signs of a recovery are already visible as non-gold imports rose by 1.3% compared to Q1,

fiscal 2014. A low base from Q2 onwards in the last fiscal could further amplify import growth in the remaining quarters for this

fiscal (Figure 1)

The nature (long-term vs short-term) of capital flows was a mixed bag in Q1, fiscal 2015. While short-term capital flows such as net

FII flows and trade credit rose, so did longer-term and less volatile capital flows such as net FDI. At the same time, NRI deposits

decreased compared to Q1, fiscal 2014 and there were large outflows on loan repayments.

Net portfolio investments surged to $12.4 billion in Q1, fiscal 2015 highest in 2 years - as investment sentiment were lifted by

the landslide victory for the NDA government in the national elections. Net FDI flows also increased to $8.2 billion from 0.9

billion last quarter (Figure 1). The increase in capital flows was entirely driven by higher FII and FDI flows as other inflows on a

net basis were negligible (Figure 2)

There were net outflows of almost $1 billion on loans due to large repayment of overseas borrowing by banks to the tune of

$11.5 billion in Q1, fiscal 2015 vis-a-vis $2.8 billion a year ago. NRI deposits, at $2.4 billion were also lower than both last

quarter and a year ago levels.

Trade credit and advances however, turned positive ($0.2 billion) as against a net outflow in the previous 3 quarters. As tradecredit closely tracks import growth, the turnaround is in line with the nascent recovery in non-gold imports seen this quarter. We

expect net inflows on this account to increase in coming quarters as import demand picks up.

Going ahead, with the Fed tapering nearing its end, there are risks of FII withdrawals from emerging economies including India.

According to S&P, the Feds Quantitative Easing program is likely to end this October with the first rate hikes likely in April -June

quarter of 2015. There will also no longer be a cushion from inward capital flows of NRI deposits as in the last year. It is therefore

important for India to attract long-term capital flows to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks. The government has already taken

steps in this direction by liberalising FDI limits in defence and railways infrastructure. It is also making efforts to facilitate and fast

track FDI investments in Indian infrastructure from countries like Japan.

BOP: CAD narrows sharply from a year ago

September 2014


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CRISIL Economy First Cut - BOP

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Figure 1: Base effect to turn less favourable going ahead Figure 2: Higher FII and FDI flows finance CAD

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

F Y14Q1 F Y14Q2 F Y14Q3 F Y14Q4 F Y15Q1

%, y-o-yExport gro wth I mport g row th

-15-10

-505

1015202530

FY14Q1 FY14Q2 FY14Q3 FY14Q4 FY15Q1

US$ billionPortfolio invetsments FDI Other capital flows

Source: Reserve Bank of India

Analytical Contacts:

Vidya Mahambare Neha Duggar Saraf

Principal Economist, CRISIL Research Economist, CRISIL ResearchEmail: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

Media Contacts:

Tanuja Abhinandan Jyoti Parmar

Communications and Brand Management Communications and Brand ManagementEmail: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

Phone: +91 22 3342 1818 Phone: +91 22 334 21835
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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