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states, poorly controlled land or maritime borders, or areas within otherwiseviable states to which the central governmentsauthority does not extend(RandCorporation 2006).

Many similar definitions have been offered, ranging across both ends of the spectrumRAND attempts to cover; they are territories in which no central government exists (failedstates or states engaged in civil/tribal war), they are spaces within a state where thegovernment does not maintain a strong presence or control.

This spectrum, however, is far too broad. It asserts that strong governments withinternal territories where state authority is challenged are equivalent to failed states wherearmed groups engage in open conflict for control and no centralized government exists tooppose them. While operationally we may approach these two scenarios differently, the twodefinition model of governed/ungoverned forces leaders and scholars to deftly examine andtreat these situations differently. From the perspective of the researcher, strategist, and policywriter, the work toward understanding and resolving conflict and increasing territory stability by

providing leaders proper recommendations depends on proper framing of the problem. What is

John A. Bertetto September 16, 2014

On 23 July 2014, Isaac Lara wrote a piece that appeared in the Kennedy School ReviewtitledCrime Square: How Advances in Criminal Justice Policy Can Improve Public Safety in New

York City.Mr. Lara suggests that reductions in crime may come via Place Theory, and suggestsa three-pronged approach: (1) increasing visibility by reducing overgrowth, increasing lighting,and adding windows to structures that permit observation; (2) repairing or removing publiceyesores such as garbage and graffiti; and (3) installing public amenities such as benches andwater fountains.

Place Theory and the focus on the physical environment are necessary components ofsuccessful crime-reduction policy. While the combined effects of the aforementioned three-pronged approach can assist in increasing security, caution must be paid that policy writers donot conflate necessary strategic components for comprehensive strategy. In order to beeffective, crime-reduction policy must describe a larger strategic vision, incorporating successfulcomponents like Place Theory into it. In order to define this larger strategic vision, policy writers

must consider three critical issues: understanding complexity, managing influence, anddelivering appropriate responses. Taken together, these components afford policy writers andresidents the best opportunity for meaningful increases in local security.

Understanding Complexity

Police officers operate within a complex, opensystem environment. Consider aneighborhood within the city of New York. The system is complex in that action taken by

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individuals or groups (a gang shooting) within the neighborhood affect how others in theneighborhood behave (travelling in groups rather than alone, remaining indoors after dark). Thesystem shows emergence or the ability to create change without input from outside the system(formation of block clubs or citizen patrols). The system is open as the actions of externalsystems can influence their behavior (increased police presence can suppress criminal activity,so more residents remain outside after dark).

Policy writers and law enforcement must understand how each action taken affects theintended recipient and how the recipients likely response will cascade across the system. Forexample, Street Gang A is engaged in illegal narcotics sales, and the abatement of the selling ofthese drugs has become a priority for local residents. However, Gang A may be aligned withGang B. The two are allies to counter the threat of Gang C a much larger gang. Significantpolice action against Gang A may serve to embolden Gang C, resulting in violence against anow weaker Gang B. Or it may embolden Gang B to take violent actions, as they feelthreatened by decreased size. The time investment required for this level of understanding maybe intensive, but failing to sense this complexity when implementing policy or an interventionmay not deliver intended reductions in crime and instead decrease local security.

Managing Influence

Complex systems are powered by relationships, and relationships are affected by bothdirect action and influence. The second order effects and even third order effects of directaction by law enforcement are influences. Understanding influence allows both law enforcementand crime-reduction policy writers to do a couple of very useful things. First, when therelationships within a system are understood, these second and third order effects of directaction can be anticipated, enabling law enforcement to think deeper about operations. Arelevant strategic question becomes How is this direct action likely to affect the target andinfluence the system?Operations, then, can be nuanced or outright crafted to exert specificinfluence on the system as a whole.

Second, by understanding this influence, law enforcement and policy leaders candetermine who can most effectively apply this influence to achieve the intended outcome. Lawenforcement is only one tool of public policy and often not the best tool. Crime-reductionpolicy writers must integrate the tools at their disposal with their understanding of individualswithin the community, so that the best source of influence can be brought to bear. TwoDegrees of Association (funded by the National Institute of Justice and implemented by theChicago Police Department) and the Group Violence Reduction Strategy (funded by theNational Network for Safe Communities) are excellent examples of understanding and applyinginfluence.

Delivering Appropriate Responses

The path to increased security does not always come from increasing the securityapparatus itself. To most effectively address crime, policy writers must (1) conduct a thoroughenvironmental analysis, (2) identify those conditions that contribute to crime and insecurity, and(3) address the needs identified. To ensure a thorough assessment, a framework with specificcomponents that span the breadth of governance should be employed. This may include, but isnot limited to: school attendance rates, graduation rates, unemployment rates, access to health

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care and social services, sanitation services, electricity and water delivery, and communityinfrastructure (roads, parks, vacant buildings, vacant lots) in addition to law enforcementservice.

The multi-variant conditions that contribute to increased crime must remain on the radarof policy writers, and policy should depend upon collaboration with other civic and non-governmental service providers to present a whole-of-government approach. This, of course,does not mean that law enforcement remains exempt from participation in programs aimed atreducing these conditions. However, larger civic organization must remain the hub of effectivecrime control policy in order to facilitate inter-agency cooperation. Concurrently, layers ofbureaucracy between civic and social service delivery must be flattened for quicker requestdelivery.

Conclusion

Crime and lack of security remain continuous struggles for many urban communities andtheir residents. In order to craft effective strategies, policy writers cannot view interventions asindependent efforts with independent outcomes. Rather, they must understand the nature of

complexity. Strategies affect not only their intended targets but others within the system aswell. Crime-reduction policy should employ strategies and operations that deliver not onlyimmediate demonstrable results but also exert specific influence on the system as a whole. Theuse of influence should be considered by all parties participating in crime abatement.

Law enforcement may not always be the most influential tool, and this limitation mustbe understood. Law enforcement must continue to conduct its core mission competencies patrol, investigations, and arrests and stay engaged with overall crime-reduction policyefforts; however, crime policy writers should remain cognizant of law enforcements limitationsand ensure that those service providers most appropriate for addressing the conditions that canlead to crime become decisively engaged.

The problem of crime and the conditions that create it are complex. It should beexpected that the effort to reduce crime and those conditions be equally complex.

The thoughts, opinions, and strategies described here are the original work of the author andare not intended to represent or speak on behalf of the Chicago Police Department, its policies,or its strategies.

John A. Bertetto is a sworn member of the Chicago Police Department.

His current areas of study and work include criminal street gangs, social

network analysis, and asymmetric threat mitigation. He is the author ofCounter-Gang Strategy: Adapted COIN in Policing Criminal Street Gangs,

Countering Criminal Street Gangs: Lessons from the Counterinsurgent

Battlespace, Designing Law Enforcement: Adaptive Strategies for theComplex Environment, and Toward a Police Ethos: Defining Our Values

as a Call to Action. Officer Bertettos most recent research article

ReducingGang Violence through Network Influence Based Targeting ofSocial Programshas been accepted to the Industry & Government Track

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of the 2014 Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD) annual

conference, a conference with a 20% acceptance rate. Officer Bertetto has

worked street patrol, organized crime, and research and developmentassignments. His applied research projects have led to collaborative

partnerships with students and faculty at USMA West Point, George

Mason University, and the University of Maryland. He is one of theprimary designers and the law enforcement SME behind the GANG socialnetwork analysis software, which has been featured in Popular Science,

Governing, and on MITs technology blog, as well as profiled on ABC

and BBC news. Officer Bertetto holds a Master of Science degree fromWestern Illinois University and a Master of Business Administration

degree from St. Xavier University.