Crime in the San Diego Region - San Diego Association of ... · Healthy Housing Market Vacancy Rate...

Public Safety Committee Item 4 | September 21, 2018 1

Crime in the San Diego Region2018 Mid-Year Crime Statistics

September 2018

What Information is Presented?

• Annualized crime rates per 1,000 population and mid-year numbers of reported crimes

• Region and jurisdictions

• FBI Index or Part I crimes

2


Not all Crime Reported toLaw Enforcement

• 23% rapes

• 54% robberies

• 59% aggravated assaults

• 30% larceny thefts

• 50% residential burglaries

• 80% motor vehicle thefts

3

2018 Annualized Violent Crime Rate Up Slightly in 2018

3.32

3.27

3.26

3.26

3.34

3.40

3.69

3.41

3.75

4.08

4.09

0

2

4

6

8

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4

Regional Violent Crime Rate Per 1,000


One-Year Increases at Mid-Year in Two of the Four Categories

-5%

13%

-7%

3%

1%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

5

Percent Change in Number of Crimes

Overall Violent

Homicide

Rape AggAssault

Robbery

How Did the San Diego Region Compare to Other Jurisdictions for Mid-Year Violent Crime Changes?

Homicide Rape Robbery Agg Assault

San Diego Region -5% 13% -7% 3%

Los Angeles -5% -14% -3% -2%

Long Beach 0% 11% -15% 27%

San Francisco -38% 0% -4% 7%

Oakland 0% -3% -12% 1%

6


2018 Annualized PropertyCrime Rate Down From 2017

16.72

17.17

19.20

18.64

18.99

21.91

21.32

19.86

22.47

22.98

27.96

0

10

20

30

40

50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

7

Regional Property Crime Rate Per 1,000

One-Year Decreases at Mid-Year in Two of the Three Categories

-13%

-3%

<1%

-3%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

8


Overall Property Burglary

Larceny

MV Theft


Petty Theft Down, Grand Theft Up

Over $400

+13%

$400 & under

-8%

9

Variation in One-Year Changes Across All Types of Larceny

-12%

4%5%

4%

-7%

-5%

9%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

10

Pickpocket(105)

Shoplift(2,450)

From MV(7,962)

MV Parts(697)

Bikes(1,246)

Buildings(4,455)

Other(2,000)



How Did the San Diego Region Compare to Other Jurisdictions for Mid-Year Property Crime Changes?

Burglary Larceny MotorVehicleTheft

San Diego Region -13% <1% -3%

Los Angeles -9% <1% -9%

Long Beach -25% 5% -18%

San Francisco 4% -12% -25%

Oakland -15% 1% -16%

11

Criminal Justice Research Division

sandag.org/cj


Law Enforcement Sensitive

1. Precise production levels are unknown.2. Mexican internal seizure quantities are breaking all records.3. Seizures have recently occurred of 20+ metric ton quantities – “super” labs.


1. Crossed primarily by vehicle loads at Ports of Entry. 20lb to 80lb loads most common.2. Seizures by CBP and Border Patrol are showing significant year-over-year increases.3. Body carrying is a serious threat, particularly the use of San Diego high school students.4. Much of the meth transits SD region destined for Los Angeles region.


Juvenile - 6 lbs of methamphetamine (4/18)


Juvenile - 6.1 lbs of methamphetamine (5/18)

Juvenile - 6 lbs of methamphetamine (5/18)


Juvenile -1.4 lbs of heroin/fentanyl1 lb methamphetamine (7/18)


4 San Diego area meth seizures 2017-2018 = 98% average purity


Tijuana, Mexico8/5/18

Fallbrook High8/5/18


Questions?

S/A Rocky HerronDEA San Diego858-616-4100


Preliminary Regional Growth Forecast

Public Safety CommitteeSeptember 21, 2018

How is the Regional Growth Forecast Used?

• 2050 Regional Plan Transportation Network

• Regional Sustainably Communities Strategyland-use pattern

• San Diego County Water Authority facility planning

• Local planning efforts

• San Diego County Health and Human Services research efforts

2


The Region’s Evolution

3

Comparing Growth Projected in 1999 and 2018

2020: 3.9 million pop 2050: 4.0 million pop

Regional Demographic Growth Forecast

4


Regional Growth Forecast

Population 4.0 Million

Jobs 1.8 Million

Housing Units 1.7 Million

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

5

Growth (2017‐2050) = 700,000

Growth (2017‐2050) = 360,000

Growth (2017‐2050) = 452,000

Department of Finance Population Projections

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Actual Projections

6Source: CA Department of Finance, 2017 Series Projections


Total Population Forecast Range

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Actual Projections

7

4.3 mil

4.0 mil3.7 mil

Range

8


9

Race and Ethnic Composition

10

Note: All race groups are “Non‐Hispanic”; All race/ethnicity groups are mutually exclusiveSource: California Dept. of Finance Population Projections, 2017

White , 38.4%

White , 46.6%

Hispanic , 40.7%

Hispanic , 33.8%

Asian 9.6%

Asian 10.7%

Black 4.8%

Black 4.8%

Two or More 5.9%

Two or More 3.3%

American Indian 0.4%

American Indian 0.4%

Pacific Islander , 0.3%

Pacific Islander , 0.4%

2050

2016


Projected Population Growth in California by County—2016 to 2050

11

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

San Diego

Source: California Dept. of Finance Population Projections, 2017

Projections

• Input from local jurisdictions• Input from expert review • National and local trends

12


Expert Review Panel—Institutions Represented

March 2017 Panel—Data and Methods • California

Department of Finance

• Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy

• Economics & Politics, Inc.

• National University

• Pt. Loma Nazarene University

• San Diego State University

• San Francisco Federal Reserve

• UC San Diego

• University of Florida

• University of San Diego

• WSP Parsons Brinkerhoff

February 2018—Assumptions • California Department of Finance

• University of San Diego

• Southern California Association of Governments

• London/Moeder Advisors

13

Key Regional Assumptions

• Population Grows Older and We Live Longer; 81 percent of the total pop growth will be in age 65+

Median age increases from 35 to 40

Average household size decreases as population ages

• Acknowledge Second Homes and Vacation Rentals as “Un-Occupiable” Units ~ 57,000 units

• Healthy Vacancy Rate (4% effective rate long term)

Capacity for first time homebuyers

Permits residents to move between units

Moderates housing and rental prices

14


Age Composition of the Population

15

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0 to

4

5 to

9

10 to

14

15 to

19

20 to

24

25 to

29

30 to

34

35 to

39

40 to

44

45 to

49

50 to

54

55 to

59

60 to

64

65 to

69

70 to

74

75 to

79

80 to

84

85 to

89

90 p

lus

2016 Population 2050 Population

81% of the populationgrowth is to ages 65+

Household Size Declines with Median Age

16

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Persons per Household vs. Median Age of U.S. Counties in 2010

San Diego County, 2010 (2.75)

Regional Forecast, 2050 (2.56)

Source: Census 2010, Summary File 1


Healthy Housing Market Vacancy Rate

• State (HCD) uses a 5% vacancy rate

• Expert review panel recommended a5% vacancy rate

• Board of Directors targets a 4% long-term vacancy rate

17

Housing Need Forecast

18

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Historical Forecast Linear (Historical)

1.7 mil

1.2 mil

1.8 mil

1.6 mil

Range


Residential Permits Issued San Diego County

19

Mira Mesa,

ScrippsRanch Penasquitos,

North Coast, San Marcos

Carmel Valley, Poway/Rancho

Bernardo, Eastlake

Penasquitos, Scripps Ranch, Eastlake San

Luis Rey

19

11,628: annual average units needed 2000-2017 to support

population growth

53,851unit shortage

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Units Decadal AverageSource: Real Estate Research Council, SD Regional Chamber

Residential Permits Issued San Diego County

20

Mira Mesa,

ScrippsRanch Penasquitos,

North Coast, San Marcos

Carmel Valley, Poway/Rancho

Bernardo, Eastlake

Penasquitos, Scripps Ranch, Eastlake San

Luis Rey

20

11,628: annual average units needed 2000-2017 to support

population growth

53,851unit shortage

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Units Decadal AverageSource: Real Estate Research Council, SD Regional Chamber

Housing units needed2017‐2050


Jobs Forecast

21

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Actual Projected

1.8 mil

1.7 mil

1.9 mil

1.4 mil

Range

Regional Growth Forecast

Population 4.0 Million

Jobs 1.8 Million

Housing Units 1.7 Million

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

22

Growth (2017‐2050) = 700,000

Growth (2017‐2050) = 360,000

Growth (2017‐2050) = 452,000

Crime in the San Diego Region - San Diego Association of ... · Healthy Housing Market Vacancy Rate...

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