Crime and the British

Crime

and the British Prepared for Criminal Justice

Alliance Roundtable:

Campaigning in the

run-up to 2015

Simon Atkinson

Assistant Chief Executive

22 November 2013

@SimonMAtkinson

2 2

• Of Twitter users are likely

to recommend a brand

they follow, and more than

1/3 access Twitter via their

mobile phone.

Theme One: Perceptions vs “Facts”

5 5





mobile phone.

Theme Two:

6 6

The “local” picture often differs from…

7

Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI

8 8

6%

Britain is getting

better as a place to live

9 9

61%

Britain is getting

worse as a place to live

10 10

24%

Britain is getting better as

a place to live July 1998

11 11





mobile phone.

“Thinking about

your local area,

which 4 or 5

things most need

improving?”

12


Crime is #6...

%

Q Thinking about your local area, which 4 or 5 of the things on the card, if any, do you think most need

improving?

%

Base: 986 British adults 15+, 15-21 June 2012

Top mentions Next mentions

Source: Ipsos MORI Local Improvement Index

Activities for teenagers

Job prospects

Condition roads/pavements

Cleanliness of streets

Affordability of housing

Level of crime/ASB

Facilities for young

children

Parks and open spaces

Public transport

Wage levels/ local cost of

living

Sports and leisure facilities

The level of traffic congestion

Health services

Social care - adults and

older people

Schools

Social care - children and

families Cultural facilities(eg libraries,

museums) The quality of the local environment

Adult education/training

Race/community relations

Local high street/facilities

13 13





mobile phone.

“What would you

say are the most

important issues

facing Britain

today?”

14

Base: 975 British adults 18+, 11th - 21st October 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Issues Facing Britain: October

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

44

36

32

25

19

18

15

14

11

10

Top mentions %

Economy

Unemployment

Pensions/benefits

NHS

Race relations/Immigration

Education/Schools

Inflation/Prices

Poverty/Inequality

Change since Sept:

-1

+4

+2

-1

+8

+5

+2

-2

+2

0

% Position

Crime/Law and order

Housing

+1

+4

-1

-2

+2

+1

+1

15

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Issues Facing Britain: Crime / Law & Order / Violence / Vandalism / ASB What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

Fuel

Protests

May day riots

Blair activates civil contingencies

machinery to deal with spiralling street

crime

Tory election pledge of

40,000 more police

Foreign prisoners scandal –

Charles Clarke is sacked

Rhys Jones and

Garry Newlove

murdered

Riots

Prison

overcrowding

reaches record

levels

9/11

Cameron becomes

PM

16 16





mobile phone.

Ipsos MORI Issues Index: Now recording the lowest level of

concern about crime since 1992

17 17





mobile phone.

It’s worth taking a

moment to think about

how we felt during the

(pre-internet…) 1990s…

22 22

55%

24 24

54% 60%

The “norm” back in 1993: Most Brits thought they would be a

victim of burglary or car crime over the next 12 months…

25 25





mobile phone.

Fast-forward to 2010…

26 26





mobile phone.

Post-2010 Reforms:

Policing, education and NHS have been major focus.

But they haven’t been the top priorities for the public,

as measured by the monthly Ipsos MORI Issues Index

27


Issues Facing Britain: Education / Schools What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

Cameron becomes

PM

London

Bombs

Introduction of

means-tested tuition

fees. Education most

important issue.

Fuel

Protests

City academies introduced to

combat entrenched failure in

some urban schools

Lowest score

since Dec 1985

Labour’s second term - pledge to

improve failing secondary schools

Education and Inspections Bill

limits the power of LAs to

open new schools

April 2011 – Pupil Premium

introduced

28


Issues Facing Britain: NHS / Hospitals / Healthcare What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

Blair tells doctors “not enough”

has been done for the NHS –

allocates extra £20 billion. Report

says waiting lists have doubled

under Labour

Blair – “We have underfunded the NHS for years and we are paying the price for

it” – BBC NHS day

Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more

nurses, 40 new hospitals and

development of foundation trusts as part

of NHS plan

General

Election –

“Battle of

Margaret’s

shoulder”

Hewitt heckled at UNISON

conference – fears over NHS

job cuts

Lowest score

since

December 1985

Cameron becomes

PM

29


Issues Facing Britain: Race Relations / Immigration / Immigrants What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

Race riots in

Burnley, Oldham,

and Bradford

Sangatte detention

centre constantly in the

news throughout 2002

600,000 EU migrants

settled since 2004

9/11

Anthony Walker

murdered in

Liverpool

Foreign

prisoners

furore

Cameron becomes

PM

“Go home or face arrest”

adverts used in some

London Boroughs

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013


Issues Facing Britain: Economy / Economic situation What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Global Recession and

Russian Financial

crisis

Highest score since 1992.

Most important issue for the

first time

Sub-prime

mortgage crisis in

the US

Northern Rock

nationalised

End of

recession

announced

Bank

bailout

Cameron becomes

PM

Lowest score since

Lehman Brothers’

collapse (43%)

31


Issues Facing Britain: Unemployment / Factory closure / Lack of industry What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

‘New Deal’ launched, providing training, subsidised

employment, and voluntary work

to the unemployed

Unemployment falls below 1 million for first

time in 25 years

Minimum wage

introduced

Unemployment in Britain rises to

5.5%

Lowest ever score

Youth unemployment reaches 1 million

Cameron becomes

PM

32 32





mobile phone.

Britain 2013:

Yes! Crime is falling

34 34 …and not just in Britain:

Source: The Economist, 20 July 2013

35 35





mobile phone.

Yes, but

Hmm…

Below are a number of statements about how Britain and our public services have changed over

the last few years. For each one I would like you to tell me whether you think it is true or false:

Is it making us feel that much better?

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

51

28

13

83

20

43

Violent crime is rising

Police numbers are

the highest ever

Crime is falling

2013

2013

2013

2005

2005

2005

83

76

70

71

92

48

50

46

48

71

Thinking about ..., how much of a problem do you think each of the following are….?

The local and the national again...

Unemployment

Rubbish or litter lying around

Immigration

Crime

Teenagers hanging around the

streets

Local area UK as a whole % A very or fairly big

problem

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

Gap

+35

+26

+24

+23

+21

38


53%

51%

46%

40%

36%

35%

34%

33%

24%

23%

22%

22%

Italy

Netherlands

UK

Australia

Canada

And we DO worry: The Brits are the biggest worriers

when it comes to crime

Germany

France

US

South Korea

Sweden

Q. Which three of the following topics do you find the most worrying in your country? Crime and violence

Spain

Poland

Source: Ipsos MORI Global @dvisor Base: 22,224 online consumer citizens, 14 April-7 May 2009

39 39





mobile phone.

Yes, but

and anyway…

41 41





mobile phone.

There are

new types of

crime for us all

to be worrying

about…

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

…meanwhile, back in my local area…

43 43

When I type “local policing”

into my search engine…

44 44

…I get LOTS of information

about all the crimes STILL

happening in my area….

45 45

Similar experience when I’m out and about…

Does this make me feel more safe or less safe?

48 48





mobile phone.

Fast-forward to 2015…

Public opinion and crime at

the next General Election?

49 49





mobile phone.

2015: Conservatives are a bit

ahead as “best party on crime”?

50

18%

3%

11%

9%

6%

6%

21%

19%

19%

22%

31%

22%

Europe

Crime & anti-social behaviour

Asylum/ immigration

Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP

On crime, the Conservatives have a clear (but

not dramatic) lead at the moment…

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013

51

1%

2%

1%

1%

6%

5%

6%

8%

32%

30%

36%

31%

18%

26%

21%

25%

Housing

Unemployment

Healthcare

Education

Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP

Labour lead on other issues…

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013

52 52





mobile phone.

2015: (Most) police can be

trusted?

53


Veracity Index – unlikely to change in next 2 years?

I am going to read out some different types of people. For each, please tell me if you would generally trust

them to tell the truth or not.

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013

9 11

11111 13

24 27 28 26

38 34

47 57

70 70 72 75 77

89 86 83 82

69 66 65 64

53 50

41 34

24 23 21 21 18

Doctors

Teachers

Scientists

Judges

Television news readers

Clergymen/priests

Police

The ordinary man/woman in the street

Civil Servants

Pollsters

Trade union officials

Business leaders

Estate agents

MPs in general

Journalists

Bankers

Politicians generally

% Not trust % Trust

54 54





mobile phone.

2015: Probably not a great plan

to say “we are making cuts to

policing”

55


“Don’t cut the Police” is the public’s starting point

Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?

Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government should cut the most money from?



50

45

28

22

14

12

11

9

5

3

5

6

The NHS/Healthcare

Benefit payments

Defence and armed forces

Overseas aid

Social services

State pensions

Schools

Local authority services

Police

Care for the elderly

Other

Don’t know

55

44

28

10

8

5

4

3

2

1

9

7

Overseas aid

Benefit payments



Social services

The NHS/Healthcare

Police

State pensions

Schools


Other

Don’t know

Government spends most money

Government should cut

56


Don’t cut the Police. Or Health. Or Schools. Or Pensions…

Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?

Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government should cut the most money from?



50

45

28

22

14

12

11

9

5

3

5

6

The NHS/Healthcare

Benefit payments


Overseas aid

Social services

State pensions

Schools


Police


Other

Don’t know

55

44

28

10

8

5

4

3

2

1

9

7

Overseas aid

Benefit payments



Social services

The NHS/Healthcare

Police

State pensions

Schools


Other

Don’t know

Government spends most money

Government should cut

57 57





mobile phone.

2015: Generally things are

staying “about the same”

in my area…?

58


On balance, based on your personal experience, do you think the following public

services have got better or worse over the past 12 months or have they stayed the

same?

Staying the same (in the main....)

6

3

5

4

1

3

3

18

12

13

13

9

10

9

49

64

56

47

59

52

41

17

14

16

20

19

22

18

3

5

8

11

6

9

19

7

2

2

5

6

4

10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Primaryeducation

Refusecollection

NHS GP

NHSHospitals

Secondaryeducation

Publictransport

The police

Much better A little better Stayed the same A little worse Much worse Don't know/can't say

Base: Online British adults aged 16-75 who are users of each service (n in brackets), 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA

59 59





mobile phone.

2015: The police are

tolerably well run (we

think)?

60


“Do you think the police is well run or not well run”

66% in 1987, 62% in 2009, ? In 2015?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Trend

% Well run

61 61





mobile phone.

2015: You can change the

way things are organised

if you like…

62 62





mobile phone.

2015: You can change the

way things are organised

if you like, but don’t

expect us to notice

63 63





mobile phone.

CASE STUDY:

The police and crime

commissioner elections…

64 64





mobile phone.

3% know “a great

deal” about them” 5-16 October 2012

65 65





mobile phone.

8% know the name of

their PCC Autumn 2013

66 66





mobile phone.

You can change the way

things are organised if

you like, but DON’T mess

things up

67


Four Things We Think We Know About Public Services

1. People value the security provided by public services

2. Fairness is key – often equated with universal provision

3. People want to protect what they have

1. Divided over need for cuts to tackle deficit

2. Even though all agree huge efficiency savings are possible

4. Private sector involvement is a low salience issue

+ Efficient, dealing with failure, experience

- Profits, accountability, losing what we cherish

68 68





mobile phone.

General Election 2015

In summary…

69 69





mobile phone.

2015: Crime & policing will

be an issue, but probably

not THE issue?

70


26%

23%

14%

12%

11%

8%

7%

7%

6%

5%

5%

3%

3%

3%

3%

32%

Taxation

Asylum/immigration

Afghanistan

Pensions

Education

Protecting natural env./climate change

Managing the economy

Care for older & disabled people

Healthcare

Benefits

Crime/ anti-soc. behaviour

Looking ahead of the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

The position in 2010. How different will 2015 be?


Unemployment

All at 3% or above

Defence Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010

Public transport/roads

Iraq

Housing

71 71





mobile phone.

HOWEVER…

72 72





mobile phone.

Can Britain have a more

“sophisticated” debate

on all this?

Public keen on prisons,

but also ready to discuss

“rehabilitation”…

73


38

18

13

13

6

16

6

15

4

7

45

2

1

The public prioritise maintaining police numbers over other

potential cost-saving measures

More fines (eg speeding tickets,

parking fines)

Fewer rehabilitation programmes for

drugs & alcohol users

Fewer prison sentences and more community sentences

Fewer education programmes in

prisons

% Most % Least

Q: If the Criminal Justice System was to face lower levels of spending, which of these, if any, would you be most/least willing to accept?

Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009

None of these

Less monitoring of people on

probation

Fewer police

74


38

36

14

12

24

23

1

2

Most people do not feel prison/probation services reduce re-

offending

% Quite effective

% Very effective

% Not at all effective

Prison Service

% Not very effective

Base: 906 adults in England and Wales, January 2009

Q How effective do you think the xxx service is at reducing re-offending…?

% Don’t know

Probation Service

23

27

52%

48%

25%

25%

75


74%

13%

36%

24%

79%

57%

But we should still build more prisons!

Send fewer people to prison

Q. As you may know, Britain has a bigger proportion of its population in prison than many other countries, and Britain’s prisons are nearly full. For each of the following ways of dealing with this, do you think they should or should not be used?

Make prison sentences shorter

Build more prisons

Should not Should

Source: Ipsos MORI/Sun, 2006

Base: 1,001 British public aged 18+, 12-17 January 2006

Net

-21

-66

+50

76


Even though – widespread belief that prison does not reduce re-

offending…

2001

2003

2004

Q Which two or three of these do you think would do most to reduce crime in Britain?

Base: Representative samples of British residents (c.1,000 - 2,000).

67%

49%

46%

41%

21%

19%

11%

10%

11%

24%

55%

49%

53%

40%

21%

29%

8%

20%

57%

46%

49%

41%

23%

19%

10%

23%

59%

45%

55%

41%

27%

19%

Better parenting

Better discipline in schools

More constructive activities for young people

Capital punishment for murder

More police on the beat

More effective programmes to change behaviour

Introducing a national identity card

More offenders in prison

2009

77


43

23

53

18

9

22

14

33

6

5

15

2

Source: Ipsos MORI

% Tend to agree % Strongly agree

The public are generally positive about “rehabilitation”, but there is

some social desirability in how people answer?

% Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree

Rehabilitation is the best way of

preventing offenders from

committing further crimes

Rehabilitation is

generally a waste of

time and effort

Don’t know/

neutral

20%

20%

Rehabilitation does not work for

all offenders but is the most

effective solution for offenders

who want to stop offending

16%

Base: 1,868 British adults, fieldwork dates 14-20 May 2010.

Split sample for top two statements.

78


26

23

23

18

18

13

13

11

10

10

10

27

When we ask the public and serving offenders what will make the most

difference, ‘help in finding work’ is top priority for both

Those mentioned by 10%+

Q What types of approaches and activities do you think are currently used in the rehabilitation of people who have committed crimes?

Source: Ipsos MORI

Education courses

Drug programmes/help with drugs

Help finding employment

Help with alcohol problems

Teaching of new skills/trades

Help understand impact of actions

Help with accommodation

Help bring back to society

Mediation/help to say sorry

Anger management

Don’t know/can’t say

Support to address issues (non specific)

Base: 1,868 British adults, fieldwork dates 14-20 May 2010

This is what both the

public and current offenders

actually think will

make most difference

Thank you

Simon Atkinson

Assistant Chief Executive

22 November 2013

@SimonMAtkinson

Crime and the British

News & Politics

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