Credit Suisse Investor Presentation...Credit Suisse Investor Presentation September 2013 Disclaimer...

25
established capabilities expanding operations Credit Suisse Investor Presentation September 2013

Transcript of Credit Suisse Investor Presentation...Credit Suisse Investor Presentation September 2013 Disclaimer...

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established capabilitiesexpanding operations

Credit Suisse Investor PresentationSeptember 2013

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Disclaimer

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and does notconstitute or form part of any offer or invitation or inducement to sell or issue, orany solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in theCompany or any other securities, nor shall any part of it nor the fact of itsdistribution form part of or be relied on in connection with any contract orinvestment decision relating thereto, nor does it constitute a recommendationregarding the securities of the Company. No information made available to youin connection with this document may be passed on, copied, reproduced, inwhole or in part, or otherwise disseminated, directly or indirectly, to any otherperson.

Some of the information in this document is still in draft form and is subject toverification, finalisation and change. Neither the Company nor its affiliates noradvisers are under an obligation to correct, update or keep current theinformation contained in this document or to publicly announce the result of anyrevision to the statements made herein except where they would be required todo so under applicable law.

No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the informationcontained in this document. No representation or warranty, expressed orimplied, is given by or on behalf of the Company or any of the Company’sdirectors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy orcompleteness of the information or opinions contained in this document and noliability whatsoever is accepted by the Company or any of the Company’smembers, directors, officers or employees nor any other person for any losshowsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information oropinions otherwise arising in connection therewith.

This presentation and its contents are confidential. By reviewing and / orattending this presentation you are deemed to accept that you are under a dutyof confidentiality in relation to the contents of this presentation. You agree thatyou will not at any time have any discussion, correspondence or contactconcerning the information in this document with any of the directors oremployees of the Company or its subsidiaries nor with any of their customers orsuppliers, or any governmental or regulatory body without the prior writtenconsent of the Company.

Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document and any materialsdistributed in connection with this document are forward-looking. Thestatements typically contain words such as “anticipate”, “assume”, “believe”,“estimate”, “expect”, “plan”, “intend” and words of similar substance. By theirnature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties andassumptions that could actual results or events to differ materially from thoseexpressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These risk,uncertainties and assumptions could adversely affect the outcome and financialeffects of the plans and events described herein. Statements contained in thedocument regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as arepresentation or warranty (express or implied) that such trends or activities willcontinue in the future. No statement in this document is intended to be a profitforecast. You should not place reliance on forward-looking statements, whichspeak only as of the date of this document.

You should not base any behaviour in relation to financial instruments related tothe Company’s securities or any other securities and investments on informationuntil after it is made publicly available by the Company or any of their respectiveadvisers. Any dealing or encouraging others to deal on the basis of suchinformation may amount to insider dealing under the Criminal Justice Act 1993and to market abuse under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.

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High quality and diversecustomer base

Integrated logistical solution

Strong governance andexperienced management team

Premium product producer

Strong cash flow and competitive cost position

Vast resource base with growth optionality

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2

3

– 100% of production is in the form of iron ore pellets…

– … of which c. half contain 65% Fe

– One of the lowest pelletizing costs in the industry on an FOB basis

– Globally competitive on iron ore concentrate cost curve

– 4.7 Bnt of JORC M&I resources along a single ore body

– Multiple opportunities for brownfield growth– Investment largely completed for 12mtpa of pellets– Potential to increase to 20mtpa of output

– Focus on customers producing high value added steel products who are “crisis resistant”

– Sales split between Europe & Asia

– Stake in Yuzhny port terminal – New top-off vessel in harbor– Own railcar & river barge fleet

– Governance in line with the requirements of LSE Premium Listing

– Management combining international expertise & detailed local knowledge

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5

6

Unique Investment Proposition

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Ferrexpo at a Glance Significant resource base

Goris

hne-

Plav

ninsk

oye

and

Lavr

ikovs

koye

1

3.6B

t

Yeris

tovs

koye

2

1.2B

t

Belan

ovsk

oye3

1.7B

t

Gales

chins

koye

0.

3Bt

Zaru

dens

koye

1.5B

t

Vasil

ievsk

oye

1.4B

t

Khar

chen

kovs

koye

2.8B

t

Man

uilov

skoy

e3.

5Bt

Brov

arsk

oye

4.0B

t

6.8 Bnt JORCClassified

ProductionDevelopmentLicence Maintenance

Gdantsev Successionquartzite, schist, filliteschist units

Saksagan SuccessionBIF units

Basementamphilobitegranite, migmatite

13.2 Bnt FSUSoviet Classified

1Operated by Ferrexpo Poltava Mine subsidiary (FPM)2Operated by Ferrexpo Yeristovo Mine subsidiary (FYM)3 Operated by Ferrexpo Belanovo Mine subsidiary (FBM)

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Integrated Logistics Well Located to Supply Regional and Seaborne Markets1H 2013 Sales Volume

Ferrexpo

Marketing officeTarget markets

Traditional marketsNatural marketsGrowth markets

19%

33%

48%

Production Output and Quality‘000 tonnes %

8,76610,031 9,811 9,690

5,246

62

63

64

65

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 2013

Production from FPM Production from FYM

Third party concentrate Average Fe content

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Ferrexpo’s Key Objectives

― Enhance competitive position on global cash cost curve

― Increase pellet production to 12mtpa by 2014

― Improve product mix: increase average pellet content to 65% Fe

― Reduce freight costs to Asia to levels below Brazilian competitors

― Expand high quality customer base

― Continue expansion to increase pellet equivalent production output to 20 Mtpa

― Prudent financial management to efficiently fund growth strategy

― Maintain high quality corporate governance associated with a premium listed company

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Pellet Market

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Pellet Dynamics within the Iron Ore Industry

Historic volume growth of largest pellet producers

Pellet exports by company (Mt)

2010 2011 2012 2013 CAGR

Metalloinvest 13.2 13.6 14.3 15.0 4%

Ferrexpo 10.0 9.8 9.7 10.7 2%

Samarco 21.4 21.7 21.1 21.9 1%

LKAB 20.4 20.5 21.0 19.6 (1)%

QCM / ArcelorMittal

6.8 5.5 6.3 6.5 (1)%

Vale 30.7 34.4 30.8 26.5 (5)%

Cliffs 12.3 11.5 11.1 10.4 (5)%

IOC 11.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 (8)%

Source: CRU 2Q 2013

CRU forecast the pellet market to remain in balance- Assumes pellet suppliers achieve production guidance

– No significant investment in pellet capacity expected

– Pellet demand remains strong supported by Middle East, Japan, South Korea & Europe

– Leading pellet company’s have a relatively high cost of pelletising, underpinning pellet premiums

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0

14

28

42

56

70

USc/dmtu

Ferrexpo

0.2 Bnt

ENRCMetalloinvest

IOC

Metinvest MetinvestLKAB

LKABVale

ValeSamarco

Vale

CLIFFS

Pelletising Cost Curve

Source: CRU, January 2013

Pelletising – Competitive Cost Position

Note: Only reflects costs incurred at pelletising stage of the production process (i.e. does not include mining, concentration and beneficiation costs) and as such should not be considered as a cost curve for total cost of pellets production. Site costs are defined as cash operating costs plus share of local overhead and sustaining capital

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Overall Cost Position

Source Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Ferrexpo , August 2013

CIF China 62% Fe Equivalent Unit Concentrate Cash Cost1

US

$/to

nne

1 In order to determine a comparable CFR cost of concentrate for Ferrexpo, the cost of pelletising has been deducted. The calculation is as follows: C1 cash cost of production + freight to Port Yuzhny + sea freight to China – less pelletising cost - premium for higher Fe content.

8

mtpa

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Rio TintoValeBHPMid cost producersChina - low costChina - mid costChina - high cost Ferrexpo

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Established Capabilities & Expanding Operations

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Ferrexpo has a Solid Track Record

US$m (unless otherwise stated) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 2013

Total pellet production (‘000 tonnes) 9,072 9,035 8,767 10,031 9,811 9,690 5,246

UAH - USD exchange rate 5.1 5.3 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0

China spot, 62% Fe fines 72 143 78 143 166 125 137

EBITDA per tonne (own ore) ($/t) 27 61 16 67 88 43 47

EBITDA (US$M) 246 503 138 585 801 402 244

EBITDA margin 35% 45% 21% 45% 45% 28% 31%

Cash flow from operations (US$M) 189 371 77 380 503 119 83

Sustaining CapEx (U$M) 50 71 21 49 128 114 52

Development CapEx (US$M) 55 206 65 118 250 316 95

Net debt to EBITDA (x) 0.5 0.4 1.9 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.4*

* last twelve months10

Cashflow positive through cycle Significant investment since 2008 to yield benefits in 2014 & beyond

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C1 cash cost: 1H 2013 vs. October 2008 (like for like basis pre-devaluation), CAGR 4%

Effective Cost Management

C1 ca

sh co

st US

$ per

tonn

e

11

51.0

61.8

63.9

59.7

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

C1 Oct 08 C1 1H13 C1 1Q13 C1 2Q13

24%

13%

12%7%4%

12%

15%

11%2%

ElectricityGasFuelGrinding mediaExplosivesOther materialsSpare parts, maintenance & consumablesPersonnel costsRoyalties & levies

Benefit of past investments starting to come through

Breakdown of C1 cash cost

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Significant & Growing Logistics Capability

“Building the Bridge to Asia”– 11 capesize vessels loaded in 1H 2013 (1H 2012: 8)

– Over 20 expected in 2013

– Panamaxes reduced and phased out

– Implementation of strategy to develop Yuzhny/Qingdao route

– Group loading facility reduced top-off costs by US$1.8 per tonne

– Avg freight cost in 1H 2013, 33% lower vs. (11%) in C3 index

– Developing seaborne logistics to Natural & Growth markets

– Own approximately 2,000 rail cars (lowers rail costs, guarantees wagon availability and reduces risk of contamination)

– Integrated barging operations on the Dnieper, Danube and Rhine Rivers (140 barges for dry cargo)

Ferrexpo seaborne freight costUS$/tonne

TraditionalNaturalGrowth

16

21

26

31

36

41

1H 2010

2H 2010

1H 2011

2H 2011

1H 2012

2H 2012

1H2013

Ferrexpo Yuzhny - Qingdao

C3 Tubarao-Qindao

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Marketing Expansion with Focus on Premium Crisis Resistant Clients

– Since 08/09 have redirected sales volumes from price sensitive customers in Ukraine, Serbia and Hungary

– Opened sales offices in Singapore, Dubai, Tokyo, Shanghai

– Expanded long term contracts with customers in Turkey & Germany (Natural markets)

– Continued expansion in growth markets

– Captured significant market share with China’s leading steel mill

– Japan recovering, renewed long term contract & trial cargo

Sales Volume by Contract Type Strengthening & diversification of customer base

Sales Volume by Market

40%

14%

46%

Benchmark indexedSpotQuarterly negotiated

1H 2013

78%

60%48%

7%19%18%

27% 33%

2008 2010 1H 2013

TraditionalNaturalGrowth

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Prudent Investment in Low Risk Brownfield ProjectsCapital ExpenditureUS$ MM

66118

252317

9521

49

128

113

52

0

100

200

300

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 2013

Sustaining Capex

Development Capex

(1)

63.5% Fe 63.5% Fe 65.0% Fe 65.9% Fe

10Mtpa2012

11Mtpa2013

12Mtpa2014

12Mtpa2015

20-22Mtpa2017

First ore at FYM to be processed using FPM’s spare capacity– US$485M invested in FYM since 2008– Incl’s pit development, mine infrastructure & utilities

FPM quality upgrade: capability to produce all pellet output with 65% Fe content– Average pellet Fe currently 63.4%– US$65M spent since 2011 (US$160M remaining) – Maintain existing production while complete required work

Beneficiating facilities at FYM– Initial investment of US$30M was approved in October 2012– Project subject to market conditions– To be funded principally out of operating cashflows– Can be a phased development to manage risk and funding– Estimated Group production, at full capacity, of 12mtpa 65% Fe and 10mtpa 67% Fe

concentrate

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– Modernization and debottlenecking of FPM processing facilities to increase output up to 12mtpa

– FPM quality upgrade programme to increase pellet Fe content

– FPM mine life extension– Development of FYM deposit, Group’s 2nd open pit

mine now operational– Logistics: railcars & shipping

A well invested asset base due to:

Past investment reducing operational risk, next stage to further develop a high quality asset base

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Output to Grow to12mtpa; thereafter FYM can add Further Tonnage

Increase pellet output up to 12mtpa (2014) – Average cost of processing FYM ore cheaper than FPM ore – Reflects lower mining costs, higher Fe content on average & better processing characteristics– Other benefits of going to 12mtpa:

– Fixed cost dilution on c. 3mtpa (fixed costs represent approximately 30% of total costs)– Freight savings from higher volumes, aim to do 4 capes per month

– Total investment to 1st ore at FYM: $0.5bn from 2008 to 2013, low FYM maintenance capex going forward

Produce high grade concentrate up to 10mtpa (2017)– Incremental 2.5mt of concentrate up to 10mtpa – Total investment for 10mtpa concentrator expected to be approximately US$85/tonne, one of the lowest in the

industry– Phasing of investment possible to assist funding– Expected cost of FYM concentrate to be at least 10% less than FPM concentrate

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Strong Balance Sheet with Low Gearing

US$M 1H 2013 31 Dec 2012

Cash and Equivalents 446 597

Total Gross Debt 1,013 1,020

Net Debt (566) (423)

Total Equity 1,616 1,570

Undrawn Facilities 25 0

Total Liquidity (Facilities + Cash) 472 597

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 20131

0.5 0.4 1.9 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.4

49%

41%

8%

2%

FXPO 16's

PXF loan

ECA funding

Equipmentleasing

Net Debt / EBITDA (x)

1 Last twelve months

― Gross facilities reflect additional ECA financing― Good levels of liquidity retained― Minimal debt repayments in 2013 & 2014― Balanced interest rate exposure, 55% fixed

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Ukraine

– Established steel & iron ore industry, major contributors to economy– Well located to export to major steel markets– Possible IMF deal– Possible EU trade agreement– Possible Russian customs union agreement– Potential reduction in high gas prices set by Russia– Current account deficit (funded by foreign borrowings) but large external debt refinancing requirement in 2013 &

2014– Devaluation likely as FX reserves reduce, current balance c. U$23 billion, under 3 months of imports– High level of VAT arrears a form of off balance sheet financing

A devaluation will reset cost base, with higher production largely offsetting future inflation– 70% of production cost (C1 cost + rail to border) in UAH

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Possible resolution of VAT arrears in pipeline– Draft law in process for issue of VAT promissory notes to industry (US$305M owed to Ferrexpo, as of 30 June 2013 US$38M

provision taken)

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Ferrexpo a World Class Iron Ore Pellet Producer

Summary

– FXPO has solid track record of quietly delivering

– Prudent investment of past set to deliver benefits

– FYM is a significant opportunity to increase production

– Continued management of Ukrainian country risk, well understood

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Thank you, the end.

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Appendix

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Ferrexpo PLC Introduction

Company Description

Ferrexpo is a Swiss headquartered iron ore company with assets in Ukraine. It has been mining, processing and selling highquality iron ore pellets to the global steel industry for over 35 years. Ferrexpo’s resource base is one of the largest iron oredeposits in the world. In 2012, the subsidiary, Ferrexpo Poltava Mining (FPM), produced 9.3 million tonnes of iron ore pellets, whilefirst ore was reached at the new Ferrexpo Yeristovo Mining (FYM) open pit. Ferrexpo is a top 5 seaborne supplier of pellets andthe largest exporter of pellets in the CIS. The Group has a diversified customer base supplying steel mills in Austria, Slovakia,Czech Republic, Germany and other European states, as well as in Turkey, China, India, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.Ferrexpo is listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange under the ticker FXPO.

Enterprise Value

As of 13 September 2013

Share price 183p

Shares out 585M

Market capitalisation US$1,743M

Cash (30 June 2013) US$446M

Total debt (30 June 2013) US$1,013M

Enterprise value US$2,310M

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Strong Corporate Governance and Experienced Management Team

Corporate Governance

Ferrexpo is fully compliant with the UK Combined Code of Corporate Governance

Independent Board of Directors is responsible for setting and reviewing the strategy of the Group and approving major financial items, including the annual budget and business plan

Michael Abrahams is an IndependentNon-executive Chairman

The Board consists of two Executive Directors and five Non-executive Directors, four of whom are independent

The Board meets at least five times a year

Board of Directors

Non-executive Directors Executive Directors

Mike Salamon

Oliver Baring* Ihor Mitiukov* Kostyantin Zhevago, CEO

Wolfram Kuoni* Raffaele (Lucio) Genovese*

Christopher Mawe, CFO

Non-Executive Chairman

Michael Abrahams*

* Indicates Independent Director

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Natural iron ore depositsHematite deposits 50-70% iron content Mined mainly in

Australia and Brazil Shipped without need for

additional processing due to higher iron content

Magnetite deposits Typically <40%

iron content Mined mainly in

North America, Russia, Ukraine, and China

Requires processing (beneficiation) to produce high grade product for sale (e.g., iron content of 62-65%)

The advantage of magnetite is that the oxidation of ferrous oxide to ferric in sintering or pelletisingreduces energy requirements in the steel making process

Fines (150μm - 6.8mm) From hematite ore,

c. 60% of global ironore production

Global benchmark for iron ore pricing

Agglomerated into ‘sinter’ at the sinter plant of a steel mill before use in a furnace. The resultant operating cost causes fines to have a lower relative value

Lump (6.8mm - 15mm) From hematite Can be charged

directly into furnace, enabling steel producer to avoid sintering, thus sold at premium to fines

Concentrate (60μm - 150μm) From magnetite Also known as pellet

feed Lowest value form of

iron ore, since the required pelletising is more costly than the sintering required for fines

Iron ore pelletsPellets (10mm)

From magnetite,c. 26% of global iron ore production

Uniform in size and composition (c.62-65% iron content)

Highest value form of iron ore since pellets are the most efficient source of iron for a steel furnace …

… thus commands a premium on the market relative to fines, lump and concentrate

Manufactured by agglomeration of concentrate (“pellet feed”) in a pelletising plant

Steel Iron ore (in the

form of fines, lumps orpellets), coke (from coal) and scrap steel are the primaryinput materials for theglobal steelmaking industry

Steel is produced either through blast furnace (chemically reducing iron ore by mixing it with coke) or electric arc steelmaking (primarily melting scrap steel)

Steel is widely used in construction, automotive, industrial, shipping and other applications

Iron Ore: Primary Input Material for SteelmakingIron ore pellets are the most efficient source of iron to a steel furnace

Iron ore fines / lump / concentrate

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Group Investor RelationsIngrid McMahon – [email protected]+44 207 389 8304www.ferrexpo.com