Credit Strategies Fund Metrics · enters a phase of heavy M&A activity. Irish drug maker Actavis...
Transcript of Credit Strategies Fund Metrics · enters a phase of heavy M&A activity. Irish drug maker Actavis...
MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
Investment Objective
Credit Strategies Fund Metrics Fund Performance (Class A, net of all fees and expenses)
1
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec YTD
2015 0.52% 1.54% 0.15% 2.22%
2014 0.44% 1.32% 0.87% 0.85% 0.48% 0.41% 0.01% 0.09% -0.28% 0.33% 0.10% -0.27% 4.44%
2013 1.12% 0.42% 0.43% 0.52% 0.54% -2.52% 0.53% 0.21% 0.00% 1.18% 0.92% 0.94% 4.33%
2012 0.53% 0.36% -0.43% 1.33% 1.61% 0.89% 1.59% 1.06% 0.54% 1.03% 8.83%
Growth of $1000 Since Inception - (Mar 1, 2012 - Mar 31,2015)
Ratings reflect portfolio holdings as of Mar 31, 2015⁵
21.21% 15.88% 8.58%
Lawrence Park Capital Partners Ltd. 2 Berkeley Street, Suite 304, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5A 4J5 WWW.LPCAPITALPARTNERS.COM
XCB:XCB CN EQUITY │BGCI: Barclays Global Corporate Index
Annualized
Return
Volatility4
Sharpe Ratio4
2.22% 3.23%
2.54%
6.44% 4.90% 2.71%
0.82
Metric LPCSF XCB2
BGCI3
YTD Return
Total Return
since Inception1, 2
Risk and Return Metrics
March, 2015
The Fund seeks to deliver 6-10% annual returns with volatility at or below traditional fixed income. The manager invests primarily in domestic
and global corporate bonds, and protects against interest rate volatility. The Fund is actively managed across a number of relative value and
trading strategies, and is based on the founding principles of delivering capital preservation, low volatility and consistent returns.
0.34%
3.24% 2.07%
2.08 1.19
CREDIT
Canada 47%
Europe 17%
United States 34%
Asset Holdings by Region5
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
AA
AA
AA
BB
BB
BB
STRATEGIES FUND
980
1,000
1,020
1,040
1,060
1,080
1,100
1,120
1,140
1,160
1,180
1,200
1,220
1,240
GROWTH OF $1,000 SINCE INCEPTION: Mar 1, 2012 - Mar 31, 2015 inclusive
LPCSF XCB BGCI
Corporate Bond Index
Corporate Spread Index
1,212
1,159
1,086
2 3
1
Insights from the Trading Desk March 2015
The old adage “in like a lion, out like a lamb” perhaps applied more to corporate bond markets in March than to
seasonal changes in weather. Following a very robust credit rally in February, we began March the same way even as
global equity markets quickly reversed their prior month gains. But by month end it felt like we were limping over the
finish line, a promising start soured by heavy supply and choppy markets. However, in a month where global bond
and equity markets were generally negative we are pleased to have posted a positive return, albeit a modest one.
Signs of an Economic Slowdown
A dominant theme of Q1 economic numbers is that US growth is not accelerating as much as some had predicted
coming into the year. Payroll numbers have remained robust, at least for January and February, but other indicators
such as retail sales and industrial production have thus far surprised to the downside. There have been a lot of
headwinds for the US so far in 2015, including lower oil prices, a stronger dollar, and a severe winter in the northeast.
Of those, the dollar may continue to be a drag on exports, but the other effects should dissipate. It is worth
remembering that 2014 began much the same way, with the US economy contracting in the first quarter before
accelerating in the second half, and it is reasonable to believe that this could be the case again this year.
The Fed: Less Patient but with Lower Dots
The risk rally we enjoyed in February took a breather by mid-March as we awaited the interest rate announcement
from the US Federal Reserve on the 18th. Much was made of the word “patient” from the previous statement – would
it stay or go. Removing “patient” would suggest the first rate hike in almost a decade was distinctly more imminent.
It’s fair to say a lot of anxiety (misplaced in our view) hung on one word.
In the end the Fed did remove the word patient. They also made it clear that the first rate rise would be no earlier
than June, and that the exact timing was highly dependent on inflation and jobs data. But more significantly they
lowered the “dots” – the Fed’s consensus forecast of where the federal funds rate is likely to be over the next 2 years
– by as much as 5/8 of a percent in 2016. This conveyed the message that while rate rises may come sooner, any
subsequent increases may occur at a slower pace than previously anticipated. This went some way to allaying market
fears, and the tone felt more constructive in heading into month end.
North American equity and credit markets are very much back to second-guessing the US Federal Reserve, where
good economic news breeds fear that interest rates will rise faster than anticipated, and vice-versa; good news has
become bad news and bad news good. It’s a fear that will ultimately dissipate (likely later this year when the Fed
actually gets the first hike out of the way and markets can find something else to focus on) but for now we must ride
it out. It also seems clear to us that the Fed is keenly aware of market unease, and is doing everything in its power to
soothe anxiety as they move away from a Zero-Interest-Rate Policy. Whether they are ultimately successful only time
will tell, but thus far we would say they have done a credible job – as supported by US equities persistently remaining
near an all-time high.
-0.75%
-0.50%
-0.25%
0.00%
0.25%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
01-Mar 08-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar
US
Liq
uid
Cre
dit
Ind
ex
Re
turn
S&P
Ind
ex
Re
turn
Equity and Credit markets showed little correlation in March
US Stocks (S&P)
US Credit (JULI)
Record Supply Weighs on Markets
If equity markets were focused almost exclusively on central bank activity in March, credit markets had other issues
to deal with. New issue supply, especially in North American markets, was remarkably robust, fuelled by a number of
factors. First, interest rates are low; US 10y notes trading in a 1.75-2.25% range in Q1 which was lower than most
economists had predicted, and Canada even lower following its January rate cut, with 10y bond yields in a 1.30%-
1.60% range.
Second, the basis swap has moved dramatically in favour of
issuing in US dollars. Whereas at the start of the year corporate
issuers could generate significant savings by issuing in Euros to
take advantage of low rates and tight spreads, a 25bp move in
the basis swap has shifted the balance in favour of USD
issuance (multi-national issuers typically use currency swaps to
convert foreign bond issues to their home currency).
And third, we had seen a decent tightening of credit spreads in
February from the January wides. The combination of those three factors meant corporations were flocking to US and
Canadian bond markets to raise money in late February/early March. Barclays’ research suggested a 30% increase in
Investment Grade bond issuance and an over 60% increase in High Yield issuance, compared to the year-ago period.
All this supply was tough for the market to digest, and was a driving
force behind soft credit spreads in March. In fact, credit markets
and equity markets showed even less correlation during the month
than normal, with credit spreads struggling even as equities were
rallying. It was only towards the end of the month as issuance
slowed down that credit markets recovered.
Pharmaceutical giants were active issuers in March as the industry
enters a phase of heavy M&A activity. Irish drug maker Actavis raised an impressive US$20 billion to fund its takeover
of Allergen, while rival Valeant managed a US $8 billion issue for its own purchase of Salix. Meanwhile Exxon Mobil
raised $8 billion, possibly anticipating future acquisitions in the energy sector. Similarly, Europeans were of course
active in the US market, with jumbo deals from UBS, Credit Suisse, and Merck AG. In Canada the banks were active,
with 5 of the Big 6 banks issuing a combined C$7.2 billion. Telus and BCE each brought 30 year issues to finance
recent spectrum acquisition; these deals had been hotly anticipated and performed well in secondary markets.
With April bringing a holiday break (more significant in Europe but still a factor in North America) and the start of
earnings season, we expect reduced issuance activity which should be supportive for credit.
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Apr'14
May'14
Jun'14
Jul'14
Aug'14
Sep'14
Oct'14
Nov'14
Dec'14
Jan'15
Feb'15
Mar'15
A sharp move in the Basis Swap brought more issuance to US bond market
USD-EUR 10y Basis Swap
Source: Bloomberg
Source: JP Morgan /Bloomberg
European spreads take a breather
The resilience of European credit spreads throughout the second half of 2014 while North American spreads
struggled was a central trading theme for us. The rally in Europe continued in January & February, but March saw a
bounce wider in some sectors. In particular, Yankee markets (European issuance in US dollars) were soft this month,
in part due to the basis spread effects mentioned above. While our European holdings were negative contributors
this month, we believe the technical factors are more balanced at these levels and remain constructive on Europe
from a fundamental point of view.
Energy Spreads remain volatile
Oil and gas spreads continue to be volatile this year as oil hovers in the $45-$50 range. A mid-month dip to new lows
around $43 caused another wave of selling pressure in both stocks and bonds. As we have said in recent
commentary, the longer term outlook for this sector remains in question and we continue to be cautious. There will
undoubtedly be industry consolidation towards stronger players which is supportive for credit markets, but the risk
reward, at least in bonds, remains skewed against taking an aggressive position at this stage.
Trading Themes
Our mix of strategies allowed us to report a modestly positive return in March despite negative months for most
major equity and bond markets. Our short end Carry and Roll strategy was a positive contributor, as was our
Momentum strategy which benefited from busy new issue markets. However Core Holdings underperformed given
broadly wider spreads, particularly with respect to European banks. Our Relative Value bucket had mixed fortunes
this month, with some of our cross-currency strategies giving back February gains, while we managed to unwind
our Amazon-Alibaba curve trade at a profitable level.
Our trading strategy in March was to set the book up for what we see as a reversal of fortune heading into Q2. We
are reducing our holdings in the carry and roll book, as flatter rate curves in Canada and softness in front end spreads
make us less bullish on this strategy. We allowed our overall credit risk profile to increase to take advantage of wider
credit spreads, forecasting improved technicals in April.
Opportunity in Steep Credit Curves
Credit curves have steepened in 2015 driven by a flattening interest rate curves. We see this as an opportunity to
extend our credit exposure, with appropriate interest rate hedges in place. We anticipate that as rate curves stabilize
then credit curves will revert to more normal levels. Buyers of duration (insurance & pensions) are focused on all-in-
yield, and will often hold back on corporate bond buying following a rate rally. But inevitably they eventually return
to the markets to meet their mandate. Our reduction in short end credit and extension to longer dated risk is a key
component of our strategy heading into the second quarter.
As always, we welcome your questions and comments.
The Lawrence Park Team
Please Read The Following:
1 .
2 .
3 .
4 .
5 .
6 .
7 .
Contact Us2 Berkeley Street, Suite 304 Kathleen Biggs
Toronto, ON M5A 4J5 Director, Business Development
Office: (416) 646-2180 Office: (416) 646-2180 ext. 1029
Fax: (416) 304-9985 [email protected]
www.lpcapitalpartners.com
Lawrence Park Capital Partners Ltd. 2 Berkeley Street, Suite 304, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5A 4J5 WWW.LPCAPITALPARTNERS.COM
Auditor KPMG
Administrator CI Investments Inc, RBC Investor Services
Legal BLG
High Water Mark Permanent
FundServ CIG6451 (B),CIG6453 (G);CIG6455(H);CIG6456 (I)
Prime Brokers Deutsche Bank, TD Securities
Minimums $25,000 (B,H);$150,000 (G); $500,000 (I)
Management Fee 1.25% (H,I); 1.50% (G); 2.00% (B)
Performance Fee 10% (I); 15% (G), 20% (B,H)
Launch Date March 1, 2012
Subscription Monthly
Redemption Monthly, 45 days notice
Fund Lawrence Park Credit Strategies Fund
Structure Canadian Mutual Fund Trust
Portfolio Managers Andrew Torres, Jason Crowley
Current and prospective investors should note that the Fund utilizes long and short positions in both domestic and international fixed-income products, and may incorporate
leverage and derivative overlays. Fund performance may deviate significantly from benchmark indices shown.
Lawrence Park Capital Partners Ltd. is registered with the Ontario Securities commission as a Portfolio Manager, Investment Fund Manager and Exempt Market
Dealer. The Lawrence Park Credit Strategies Fund is available in Canada to Accredited or Qualified Investors only. Please consult your advisor.
All return figures for the Lawrence Park Credit Strategies Fund (the “Fund” or “LPCSF”) are based on the A Series units and are net of management fees, performance fees,
trailing commissions (if any) and Fund expenses. Other series may have different fees and redemption terms. Monthly returns are based on monthly NAV calculations by RBC
Investor Services.
BGCI refers to the Barclays Global Corporate Index. Returns for this benchmark are calculated as excess monthly returns, or the difference between total returns of the security
and an implied Treasury portfolio matching the term-structure profile of that security. Returns are calculated in Canadian dollars, assuming currency exposures on non-Canadian
holdings are fully hedged. In the opinion of the portfolio managers, this index represents a valid benchmark for the Credit Strategies Fund on the basis it is a) based on a global
portfolio of publically traded corporate bonds, b) expressed in Canadian Dollars, and c) assumes currency and interest rate risk have been hedged from the portfolio.
The XCB is an index-based ETF that replicates the FTSE TMX Canada All Corporate Index, a benchmark index of Canadian Dollar corporate bonds published by PC Bond Analytics.
The Fund has a high % of its assets in C$ corporate bonds, and thus the FTSE TMX Canada All Corporate is a relevant index for comparing risk and return in the Fund. The FTSE
TMX Canada All Corporate Index has a high component of interest rate risk, whereas the Fund has a low component of interest rate risk.
Volatility and Sharpe calculations are based on monthly returns since inception, calculated by the Manager. The risk-free rate used for the Sharpe ratio calculation is 1.00%,
approximately equal to the average Canadian 3 month T-bill rate over the past 12 months. All comparisons to the benchmark are since inception of the Fund, March 1, 2012,
unless noted otherwise.
The Fund’s returns are not guaranteed, its value changes frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. No representations or warranties of any kind are intended or
should be inferred with respect to the economic return or the tax consequences from an investment in the Fund. Potential qualified investors should read the Fund’s offering
memorandum carefully prior to investing.
Ratings and Regional Breakdowns reflect the end of the month portfolio composition on a Total Exposure basis. Total Exposure is equal to the total directional long positions,
plus total directional short positions, excluding hedges & cash. Investors should note that because the portfolio is turned over frequently, current composition may differ
materially from the numbers stated herein.