Bernard Lietaer - Intentional Cities, Intentional Economies - Creating Wealth
Creating climate wealth
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Transcript of Creating climate wealth
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McKinsey says $57T of investment by 2030
Source: US EIA
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IEA says we need $5T more than BAU by 2020
Source: US EIA
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Electricity Rates have risen faster than inflation
Source Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual, DOE/EIA-0348.
5.56.57.58.59.5
10.511.512.513.514.515.516.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ener
gy (c
ents
/kw
h)
New England Middle Atlantic PacificWest South Central South Atlantic East North CentralEast South Central Mountain West North Central
Source: US EIA
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Oil Prices are persistently staying above $100/bbl
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2009, National Academy of Sciences Study Impact of fossil fuel on healthcare system:
$120B per year
Coal and Oil:– $60B each in health impacts– 30,100 premature deaths annually– Over 5,000,000 workdays lost
Not included: environmental damage from coal mining, pollution of rivers from coal plant
smokestacks to keep the air clean.
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Energy uses more water than agriculture--more water than cities or ourselves.--Energy responsible for 50% of US water withdrawals
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What we believe
Global scarcity in natural resources
Transformations have begun resource extraction, use and disposal (or re-use)
Investors are over-exposed to the risks with these trends, and under-exposed to the opportunities
Solutions to these risks represent “the largest wealth creation opportunity of our lifetime” 8
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100
- 100
- 50
0
50
$/to
n of
CO
2
Source: McKinsey & Co Cost Curve (over-simplified by CWR)
Focus – The Economic Opportunity
Buildings
Transportation
Manufacturing
Low-CarbonFuels
RenewableEnergy
CarbonCapture &
Storage
Other Innovations
Climate Wealth starts with the >50%
of the climate solution that makes great business sense right now…
Land Use
tons of CO2e
Renewable Electricity
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Climate Wealth Law
Due to continuous technology innovation ~50% of the greenhouse gas emissions will always be profitable to eliminate – held up only by lack of effective business model and financial innovation.
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Current situation: Silos + low capabilities
Future situation: Winners create new networks/structures
Capital: investors
Regulation:
policy makers
Innovation: technology challengers
Market access: incumbents
Capital: investors
Regulation: policy makers
Innovation: challengers
Market access: incumbents
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Solar PV: Why we are winning$100B business in 2013
• Passionate Industry
• Activated Local Advocates
• Know how to sell small systems – avg size in 2013 in USA is 33kW
• Policymakers can smell grid parity
20% of global electricity is now more cost effective with Solar PV
Capital: 9% returns
Regulation: Diversification;Reliability
Innovation: Distributed Solar PV
Market: Fast Rising Electricity Costs
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40,000 MW additional projects by 2017- 1,000,000 projects average 50kW each- $100B investment, $1B in commissions- We are short sales and business development
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Who actually invests in this stuff?We are on track for $5T by 2020 and now we need another $5T into climate wealth solutions to win.
Money is not coming from divestment or impact investing, it is coming from mainstream capital
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Who holds the Money?Everyone is Focused here
Leadership has come from here
Everyone should be focused here
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What about Impact Investing?
Criteria Range Target
Unlevered project* IRR 12%-20% 16%
Project duration 3 -15yrs 8 yrs
Return multiple 1.5x-3x 2.5x
Project size $0.5M-$10M $5M
Total deployment per company $1M-$25M $15M
Inflation protection none Energy index
1. Make an impact on a pressing problems2. Generate compelling risk adjusted returns for
investors3. Get people to follow you at $ Billion scale
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What about Impact Investing?Performance Risk Mitigation
1. Maturity of technology At least 3 yrs of commercial deployment in one location
2. Transaction Costs Preference for products vs. engineering projects
3. Predictability of revenue Our revenue is predictable and not subject to merchant commodity risk without a credit backstop
4. Vendor viability Vendor can be replaced on both parts or maintenance
5. Vendor geography Focus on US and to a lesser degree EUCollection Risk Mitigation
6. End customer viability Aligned with investment period and return profile
7. Vendor credibility Reference checks and due diligence
8. Measurability of value Sensors, online access, clear reference case
9. End customer geography Price it in or hedge it out
10. Recovery in case of failure Portfolio risk, sometimes transferable product with ability to redeploy
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Project Partner Business Focus Return Amount Invested Description
SREC Aggregation and Finance
13% $1,400,000Solar Renewable Energy Credit (SREC) aggregation provider, delivering creative SREC trading solutions
to over 2000 customers and energy supplierstouching all parts of the industry
SolarThermal
18% + warrants $4,000,000
Specializing in Solar Thermal / Hot Water and Data Monitoring; Skyline is an innovative,
technology driven company with rapid growth on the
US East Coast and in the Southwest
Solar Photovoltaic
13% + warrants $1,481,773
Canadian solar company capitalizing on Ontario’s 20 year “Feed In Tariff” program; tax advantage structure.
Fund intends to liquidate this investment but as of 12/31/12no definitive agreement has been finalized.
Solar Photovoltaic 18% $1,424,049 Multiple projects with attractive cost,
solar irradiation and incentive characteristics.Energy Efficient
Hydroponic Greenhouses
15% + warrants $2,290,000
Designs, builds and manages energy efficient hydroponic greenhouses
at or near supermarket retailers.
Solar Grid Storage Battery storage for grid services
16% + warrants
$1,122,000
Enhances solar P.V. installations with batteries, inverters and proprietary controls that enhance grid
stability and provide customer benefits – such as backup power.
STEMBattery storage
for demand savings
16% + warrants $1,000,000
Provides batteries at the customer site to support a shared savings contract around costly demand
charges
Practicing what I Preach
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Renewable Energy vs. EfficiencyCan Efficiency Deliver?
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Same in TransportationCan Efficiency Deliver?
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Opportunity in Georgia
$410B economy (#29 in the world)
22
Sector Opportunity Return DescriptionDistributed Generation $20B 9% Renewables, CHP, Water
Energy Efficiency $15B 12% Buildings, Transport, Ag
Waste to Value $15B 13% Recycling, Conversion
$50B investment opportunity from 2010-2020- 1,000,000 projects average $50,000 each- $500 million in commissions available to share- We have technologies, short on business
development