Creating and applying computational models of health behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli, PhD.

Creating and applying computational models of health behaviours

Philippe J. Giabbanelli, PhD

1PJ Giabbanelli Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours

My primary interest is in modelling and analyzing human behaviours. I am a computational modeller and data scientist.

Research interests

Food behaviours InsurgenciesDrinking behavioursare today’s focus.

PJ Giabbanelli 2

Questions addressed

Why are computational models useful to tackle the complexity of health behaviours?

What models have been developed to structure the drivers of health behaviours?

How can models help us assess and design interventions?

Framing the topic

Creating models

Applying models

Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours

PJ Giabbanelli 3Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours

Framing the topic

Obesity is a complex problem.• loops

Many statistical models don’t cope well with loops (e.g., bayesian networks are acyclic)


Framing the topic


• heterogeneity

VijayPhilippe

Compartmental models commonly used in epidemiology assume homogeneity.


Framing the topic


• heterogeneity

• nonlinearity

change

nagging


Framing the topic


• heterogeneity

• nonlinearity

• randomness

• dynamic

• uncertainty

Fear has a very

high impact on exercise.

I think it’s

more medium.

Important for many of my models.


Framing the topic


• heterogeneity

• nonlinearity

• randomness

• dynamic

• uncertainty

Agent based modelingAgent Agent

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Modelling for?

Tell me what people will do in the future!


PJ Giabbanelli 7

Framing the topic

Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build computational models.

Explaining

To simulate far into the future, you need to understand what you have now and how it changes.

2013 2023 2043

1 - Explain 2 - Predict


PJ Giabbanelli 8

Framing the topic


Explaining

“Electrostatics explains lightning,

but we cannot predict when or where the next bolt will strike.”

A chaotic view of behavior change: a quantum leap for health promotionResnicow & Vaughan, IJBNPA 2006


PJ Giabbanelli 9

Framing the topic


« What if »

Imagine that you want to intervene on the built environment. Would you try to change

it and see whether it was a good idea?

Using the computer, you create a virtual environment and see how virtual people react to

changes.


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Questions addressed





Framing the topic

Creating models

Applying models

PJ Giabbanelli 11

Creating models

“There is increasing evidence that social influence and social network structures are significant factors in obesity.”

Eating Exercising

R.A. Hammond, Current Opinion in Endocrinology, Diabetes and Obesity 17, 467 (2010)


PJ Giabbanelli 12

W. Rush, et al., Tech. rep NECSI 2003

Rule: take the state shared by the majority of your friends.

But I have only 2 friends!

Well, I have 14 friends…


Creating models

PJ Giabbanelli 13

2003. Everyone has the same number of friends.

2009. Most people have few friends, few people have lots.

(cellular automaton) (complex networks)

D. Bahr, R. Browning, H. Wyatt, J. Hill, Exploiting social networks to mitigate the obesity epidemic, Obesity 17 (2009) 723-728


Creating models


Creating models

Creating models


ICO 2010. <9% acceptance for oral

presentations.

PJ Giabbanelli 16

This model looked at social and environmental influences on weight.

drinking

To model binge drinking, I was given individual-level data.


PJ Giabbanelli 17

Creating models

Process

You select peers with whom to drink…

…and then, their drinking habits influence yours.

Structure


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Creating models

Assuming a few hypotheses on how people select and are influenced by others, can we tell whether someone engages in binge drinking?

If we assume:

• that individuals select similar peers

• that individuals are prompted to drink if at least a fraction of their peers drink

• that one’s context known from drinking motives may deter/promote drinking

Then we can correctly infer the behaviour of half of the binge drinkers and 4 out of 5 non binge drinkers in the LISS dataset.

Published in the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.


Creating models

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What about behavioural responses to price fluctuations?


Creating models

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Junk tax


Published in the American Journal of Public Health

p(FV)p(FF)

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Creating models

To go beyond, we need to better represent the context that shapes health behaviours.


Creating models

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P-valuesOdds ratio

ANOVA

Besides, studies tend to speak on associations, not causations…

???


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Creating models

I turned to experts on obesity and asked them to evaluate the strength of these causations.

I built an expert system based on their feedback.


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+

Creating models


Published in Applied Soft Computing

Technical contribution

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Creating models


PJ Giabbanelli 26

Initialization Matching Simulation

Philippe

Suman

Vijay

Bill

Chunyu

Creating models


PJ Giabbanelli 27

SimulationInitialization Matching

Influencing Influenced

Creating models

Philippe

Suman

Vijay

Bill

Chunyu


PJ Giabbanelli 28

Initialization Matching Simulation

Creating models

Philippe

Suman

Vijay

Bill

Chunyu


Published in Studies in Computational Intelligence

PJ Giabbanelli 29

Creating models

Focusing on knowledge sharing…

Comparing food labels Cooking

healthy meals

…are you better off following your friends or random people?


Creating models

←probability of passing on knowledge→

↑Intensity of obesity

↓


Published in Theories and Simulation of Complex Social Systems

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Questions addressed





Framing the topic

Creating models

Applying models

www.spaplay.com

Applying models


Game activities

Recommender System

Practitioner’s office

Interacting with peers

Data about relevant psycho-social factors

Data about similar peers

provides

improves

Suggesting relevant questions

Suggesting similar peersincreases

increases

Conducting a targetted psycho-social assessment of patients queries

refines

Patients’ information

amel

iora

tes

providesCompleting surveys

contributes to

Self monitoring

Builds on an evidence base to offer

Improving health management


Published in Health Informatics

Applying models


Vijay

Bill

Philippe

Chunyu

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are a powerful approach to conduct quantitative and comparative controlled experiments. A key characteristic

of RCTs is that participants are randomly assigned to a group.

Applying models


Rela

tions

hips

Perceived importance

Rela

tions

hips

Rela

tions

hips

Fuzzy Logic

Fuzzy Logic

answ

er

Aggregate value

of connection

Prog

nosti

c fa

ctor

s

Measured value

Initial value of patient

Inte

rven

tion

Applying models


rctsoft.free.fr


Future directions

• The PHSA paper studied the relationships between obesity, weight bias, and mental well-being.

• There is a need to structure the evidence on both mental well-being and physical well-being as it relates to obesity.

• ≈ 65K funding to model well-being and obesity.

Name PositionGeoff Ball, PhD Professor, Department of Pediatrics, University of Alberta.

Director, Pediatric Centre for Weight and Health, Stollery Children’s Hospital.

Katherine Cianflone, PhD Canada Research Chair on Adipose Tissue, Tier 1 . Jean-Pierre Chanoine, PhD, MD Head of Pediatric Endocrinology, BC Children’s Hospital.

Clinical Professor, Division of Endocrinology, Department of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia.

Jean-Philippe Chaput, PhD Assistant Professor, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa.Jean-Pierre Després, PhD International Chair on Cardiometabolic Risk. Professor, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval.

Director of Research, Cardiology, Québec Heart and Lung Institute.

Jim Frankish, PhD Director, Centre for Population Health Promotion ResearchProfessor, College for Interdisciplinary Studies and School of Population & Public Health, University of British Columbia

Danijela Gašević, MD Research Associate, Royal Columbian Hospital.Carolyn Gotay, PhD Professor, University of British Columbia.

Canadian Cancer Society Chair in Cancer Primary Prevention, University of British Columbia.Affiliated Scientist, BC Cancer Agency.

Michael Hayes, PhD Professor, Department of Geography, University of Victoria.Director of Health Education and Research, University of Victoria.

Terry Huang, PhD Professor & Chair, Department of Health Promotion, Social and Behavioural Health, University of Nebraska.

David Lau, PhD, MD Director, Julian McFarlane Diabetes Research CentreChair, Diabetes & Endocrine Research Group.Professor, Departments of Medicine and Biochemistry & Molecular Biology, University of Calgary.

Scott Lear, PhD Professor, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University.Chair in Cardiovascular Prevention Research, Pfizer/Heart & Stroke Foundation.

Gary Lewis, PhD, MD Director, Division of Endocrinology, University of Toronto.Director, Banting and Best Diabetes Research Centre, University of Toronto.Sun Life Financial Chair in Diabetes.Drucker Family Chair in Diabetes Research.

Pablo Monsivais, PhD Program Lead, Dietary Public Health Research, CEDAR, University of Cambridge.

Kim Raine, PhD Director, Research Program Promoting Optimal Weights through Ecological Research.Professor, Centre for Health Promotion Studies, University of Alberta.

Arya Sharma, PhD, MD Professor of Medicine, University of Alberta.Chair, Obesity Research and Management, University of Alberta.Founder and Scientific Director, Canadian Obesity Network.

John Spence, PhD Professor, Faculty of Physical Education and Recreation, University of Alberta.

Tom Warshawski, MD Chair, Childhood Obesity Foundation.James Woodcock, PhD Program Lead, Public Health Modelling, CEDAR, University of Cambridge.

Experts on:- Adipose tissue- Physical activity- Nutrition- Cardiovascular- Obesity management


Future directions

?

I have a long-standing collaboration with Dr Vijay Mago. We are working on 2 projects:

- Falls in the elderly (grant submitted)

- Social influence on binge drinking (about to collect data)

PJ Giabbanelli Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours

Future directions

As a new Investigator Scientist in Cambridge, I will work on:

- Modelling how individuals navigate the food environment

- Using visual analytics and big data to inform public health

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VA helps setting up the structure of the model by facilitating the identification of similar entities or missing connections.

VA keeps stakeholders engaged in the modelling process by providing an interactive outline of the domain.

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Motivating question: to which extent is this model supported by interviewees?

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We measured the strength of a relationship between two factors as the number of responses in the interviews that used words relevant to both factors.

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Conclusion

Contact: [email protected] 5 publications related to this presentation:

1. Modeling the influence of social networks and environment on energy balance and obesity. Journal of Computational Science, 2012.

2. A fuzzy cognitive map of the psychosocial determinants of obesity. Applied Soft Computing, 2012.

3. Impact of different policies on unhealthy dietary behaviors in an urban adult population: an agent-based simulation model. American Journal of Population Health, 2014.

4. Supporting self-management of obesity using a novel game architecture. Health Informatics, 2014.

5. Modeling the joint effect of social determinants and peers on obesity among Canadian adults. In Theories and Simulations of Complex Social Systems, 2014.

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Thanks to my colleague and friend Dr Vijay Mago for inviting me to Troy University

Creating and applying computational models of health behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli, PhD.

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