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Creating a Shared Vision Model
Creating a Shared Vision Model
Macintosh II
What is a Shared Vision Model?What is a Shared Vision Model?
A “Shared Vision” model is a
collective view of a water resources
system developed by managers and
stakeholders. It is used to facilitate plan
development, implementation and
maintenance.
Wait a second!
Why discuss Shared Vision Models now?
Are Shared Vision Models part of the seven steps?
Shared Vision Models can enhance each stage of the planning process
Shared Vision Models Can Shared Vision Models Can
Establish the status quo
Highlight important problems
Communicate constraints
Focus planning objectives
Identify promising strategies
Fine-tune targets
Assess the impacts of a plan
Shared Vision Models Can Shared Vision Models Can
Shared Vision Models Can Shared Vision Models Can
Facilitate plan implementation
Perform environmental assessments
Brief decision makers
Inform the public
Shared Vision Models Can Shared Vision Models Can
Conduct Virtual Drought Exercises
Review strategic plans
Maintain plan effectiveness
Models In Water Resources Planning
Models In Water Resources Planning
One of the earliest non-military applications of computers was to water resources
Harvard Water Program foresaw the major impacts of computers
Simulation and optimization models have been used to provide operational guidance, forecast future conditions, and facilitate planning for many years
Traditional ModelsTraditional Models
Traditional water resources models
Developed and used by analysts
Developed for the use of a single agency
Created with little outside input
Written in FORTRAN
Run on mainframe computers
Limitations of Traditional Models as Planning Tools
Limitations of Traditional Models as Planning Tools
Common model limitations as planning tools
Require extensive time to create
Require extensive training
Require extensive data that may be difficult to obtain
Common Model Limitations as Planning Tools
Common Model Limitations as Planning Tools
Are viewed as black boxes by non-developers
Can not be customized to facilitate planning decisions
Can not be run interactively and lack transportability
Represent a single vision
Object Oriented: Flexible - Interactive - Transparent
Run on Multiple Platforms: Transportable
Jointly Developed and Used: Neutral - Accessible
And as a result Shared Vision models are: Useful - Trusted - Endorsed
Characteristics of Today's Shared Vision Models
Characteristics of Today's Shared Vision Models
Traditional Environments Object Oriented Environments
Model Development
InterfaceProcedural Code Graphical
Model Development
Training Required
High Moderate
Programming Effort High Low/Moderate
Modification Effort High Very Low
Mode of Use Batch Interactive
User Interface Input File Graphical
Training to Use High Low
Ease of Understanding Low High
Comparison of Traditional and Object-Oriented Simulation Environments
Comparison of Traditional and Object-Oriented Simulation Environments
Perceived Advantages of Shared Vision Models
Perceived Advantages of Shared Vision Models
Shared Vision Models
Improve analysis
Are more flexible
Communicate more effectively
Cost less to develop than traditional approaches
Modeling PhilosophyModeling Philosophy
Shared Vision Models should Be developed with wide support Improve communication among
managers and stakeholders Disseminate information equally Improve planning and management
of water resources Serve as a basis for effective negotiation
Gain Stakeholder Endorsement
Structure Model Development
Process
Overview of Model Development Process
Overview of Model Development Process
Define Modeling Objectives
Conceptualize System
Construct Model
Test and Validate Model
Establish Ongoing Role For Model
Enhance/Modify Model
Desired Characteristics of Model Developer(s)
Desired Characteristics of Model Developer(s)
Collectively the model development team should possess
Respect and trust of stakeholders
Strong communication skills
Previous modeling experience
Strong technical skills
A broad-based understanding of the system
Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development
Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development
Advisory
Participate in interviews
Share knowledge of the system
Shape modeling objectives
Critique prototypes
Active Assessments
Independently test and use model
Participate in virtual drought exercises
Hands-On
Participate in model construction
Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development
Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development
Steps in Creating Shared Vision Models
Steps in Creating Shared Vision Models
Step 1. Define modeling objectives
Step 2. Structure the model development process
Step 3. Conceptualize the system
Step 4. Construct model
Step 5. Evaluate and test the model
Step 6. Confirm stakeholder endorsement
Step 7. Enhance/modify model
Step 8. Establish guidance for ongoing model use
Step 1. Define Modeling Objectives
Step 1. Define Modeling Objectives
Modeling objectives define what should be accomplished by the modeling effort.
To define modeling objectives we must ask Who will use the model? How will it be used?
As well as Who will be impacted by the model? What are the planning objectives?
Step 2. Structure the Model Development Process
Step 2. Structure the Model Development Process
Involve managers and stakeholders
Identify constraints and potential obstacles
Identify tasks and establish a time line
Identify resource requirements
Assign roles and responsibilities
Step 3. Conceptualize the SystemStep 3. Conceptualize the System
Interview managers and stakeholders and review previous studies
Delineate required components
Determine what is not required
Define appropriate level of system detail
Identify an appropriate time step
Identify performance measures that will be modeled
Step 4. Construct ModelStep 4. Construct Model
Steps in Model Construction:
Identify Module Functions
Layout System Components
Indicate Which Components are
RelatedSpecify Functional Relationships
Gather Necessary Data
Incorporate Data Into the Model
Document Model Diagram and Equations
Create Tables and Graphs
Create User Interface
Typical Components of a Shared Vision Model
Typical Components of a Shared Vision Model
Planning objectives Hydrology
Reservoirs Ground water supplies
Demands Forecasts
Operating policies Constraints
Triggers Water rights priorities
Regulations & policies Performance measures
Robust documentation Modeling assumptions
Step 5. Evaluate and Test the ModelStep 5.
Evaluate and Test the Model
Developers must
Verify the model
Validate the model
Identify areas of uncertainty and sensitivity
Model VerificationModel Verification
Stakeholders, managers, and analysts must verify that
The model contains all critical components
Components are correctly related
System behavior
Model ValidationModel Validation
With the verified model, we must ensure that the model can mimic past system behavior:
Average conditions
Extreme conditions
Appropriate metrics must be used to compare model output with historical data.
Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis
During sensitivity analysis we determine
How changes in variables or assumptions impact system performance
Which input variables are most uncertain
This provides an understanding of
Which input variables most influence system performance
Where more reliable information is needed
Step 6. Confirm Stakeholder Endorsement
Step 6. Confirm Stakeholder Endorsement
To obtain model endorsement, model developers must Ensure that model content is understood Convey assumptions Demonstrate model validity Illustrate model’s value in planning and decision
making Address concerns that are raised
Step 7. Enhance/Modify ModelStep 7. Enhance/Modify Model
Before making model enhancements
Identify requested changes
Identify why the change is needed
Prioritize requested modifications
Consider available resources
Document changes (who, why, when, how)
Step 8. Establish Guidance for Ongoing Model Use
Step 8. Establish Guidance for Ongoing Model Use
To ensure continued model usefulness managers and stakeholders must
Identify a caretaker for the model
Identify how the model will be maintained
Create training opportunities
Develop ground rules for model distribution and use
SummarySummary
A “Shared Vision” model represents the collective view of water resource managers and stakeholders. It facilitates plan development, implementation and maintenance.
Shared Vision models have several desirable characteristics that enhance their usefulness as planning tools.
Model development teams must be carefully chosen.
Stakeholder input is essential to shared vision model development.
Guidelines for long-term model use, distribution, and maintenance should be established.
ExerciseExercise