COVID-19 Trends Webinar slides for handout 07102020...Total US market dollar sales are growing at a...

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Transcript of COVID-19 Trends Webinar slides for handout 07102020...Total US market dollar sales are growing at a...

Page 1: COVID-19 Trends Webinar slides for handout 07102020...Total US market dollar sales are growing at a slower rate than retail & mail (combined) for YTD May, indicating non- retail is

Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 1

DisclaimerOrganizations may not re-use material presented at this AMCP webinar for commercial purposes

without the written consent of the presenter, the person or organization holding copyright to the

material (if applicable), and AMCP. Commercial purposes include but are not limited to symposia,

educational programs, and other forms of presentation, whether developed or offered by for-profit or

not-for-profit entities, and that involve funding from for-profit firms or a registration fee that is other

than nominal. In addition, organizations may not widely redistribute or re-use this webinar material

without the written consent of the presenter, the person or organization holding copyright to the

material (if applicable), and AMCP. This includes large quantity redistribution of the material or

storage of the material on electronic systems for other than personal use.

0

1

Page 2: COVID-19 Trends Webinar slides for handout 07102020...Total US market dollar sales are growing at a slower rate than retail & mail (combined) for YTD May, indicating non- retail is

Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 2

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Current State

3

Key recent happenings in the US! (July 2020)

• Dollar growth is +4%• Specialty is up 10% Traditional is flat• Unadjusted TRx growth is down 2% while

Adjusted 90-Day TRX growth is up 2%• 90 day scripts continue to grow• Strong flu season & Covid-19• Generic $ sales have stabilized

Market Performance

• Horizontal

Vertical

• Amazon

Mergers/Alliances

• DIR fees and audits• Patient’s behavior during their

deductible period• Co-pay cards

Reimbursement

• Record number of ANDA approvals and faster approvals, but fewer products launching

• Epogen, Herceptin and Avastin

Generic& Biosimilar Launches

• Opioids recognized as a national crisis• FDA Priority list of no or limited generic

entries and complex generics

Regulation

• Much more public/media scrutiny ondrug prices

• Potential administrative actions• Gross-to-net and rebates• Generic deflation• Less Brand price inflation• Repeal and Replace?

Price/Politics

Source: Publicly available through multiple sources

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Total US market dollar sales are growing at a slower rate than retail & mail (combined) for YTD May, indicating non-retail is growing at a slower pace than retail and mail

Growth (%) of Sales

Total Market (Retail, Non-Retail and Mail) Retail and Mail

4.6%

1.9%

6.3% 5.7%4.7% 4.1%

-4.0%

1.0%

6.0%

11.0%

16.0%

2016 2017 2018 2019 MATMAY2020

YTDMAY2020

5.0%

0.3%

4.6% 5.0% 4.8% 5.2%

-4.0%

1.0%

6.0%

11.0%

16.0%

2016 2017 2018 2019 MATMAY2020

YTDMAY2020

Source: IQVIA, National Sales Perspectives, May 2020Note: Limited to Rx and OTC Insulins; Includes Retail, Non-Retail and Mail

Gro

wth

(%

)

Gro

wth

(%

)

5

In MAT May 2020,specialty spend grew by 10.2% while traditional decreased 0.1%

For the total market, specialty growth is outpacing traditional product growth and now has ~49% share of total non-discounted spend

$162.0 $179.0 $196.1 $219.4 $244.8$253.6

$264.6 $267.4$258.9

$264.4$266.6 $266.1$426.7 $446.4 $455.0

$483.8$511.4 $519.6

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

Gro

wth

N

on

-Dis

cou

nte

d S

pen

d (

BN

s)

SPECIALTY TRADITIONAL SPECIALTY GROWTH TRADITIONAL GROWTH TOTAL MARKET GROWTH

Source: IQVIA, National Sales Perspectives, May 2020

Share of Sales 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 MAT MAY 2020

SPECIALTY 38.0% 40.1% 43.1% 45.4% 47.9% 48.8%TRADITIONAL 62.0% 59.9% 56.9% 54.6% 52.1% 51.2%

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US total market absolute growth ($)

Just three therapy areas are responsible for over 50% of positive absolute growth in the US and 40% of recent launches

IQVIA NSP, Rx + OTC insulins only, Mar 2020 MAT; Notes: NAS = New active substance (recent launches with commercially valuable sales)

Top-10 therapy area growth % (LC$)

2

20-4-6 -2 8

8

340 226 402

6

4 10 12

10

4214 16 18 2624 28 30 32

4

36 38-4

-2

12

0

AUTOIMMUNE

5-year absolute growth (2015-2020)

ONCOLOGICS

1-ye

ar a

bso

lute

gro

wth

(20

19-2

020)

ANTIDIABETICS

RESPIRATORYMS

HIV

ANTICOAGULANTS

NERVOUS SYSTEM

MENTAL HEALTH

PAIN

Specialty Traditional Mar 2020 MAT sales, Bn

0

2

0

34

2

3

7

2

4

1

2017-19 NAS launches

ONCOLOGICS

ANTIDIABETICS

AUTOIMMUNE

RESPIRATORY

HIV

ANTICOAGULANTS

MS

MENTAL HEALTH

PAIN

NERVOUS SYSTEM

7

7

US total market growth rate (%)

However, growth is now slowing in all three major therapy areas; specifically, oncology growth has slowed by 5% since prior year

Top-10 therapy area growth % (LC$)

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

15

20

-25

25

0

5

10

MENTAL HEALTH

Historic growth (% 5-year CAGR, 2015-2020)

Sh

ort

-ter

m g

row

th (

% Y

oY,

2019

-202

0)

ONCOLOGICS

ANTIDIABETICS

AUTOIMMUNE

RESPIRATORY

HIV

ANTICOAGULANTS

MSPAINNERVOUS SYSTEM

Specialty Traditional Mat 2020 MAT sales, Bn

Recent growth rate is higher than historical rate (accelerating growth)

Historic growth rate is low than recent growth rate (decelerating growth)

IQVIA NSP, Rx + OTC insulins only, Mar 2020 MAT; Notes: NAS = New active substance (recent launches with commercially valuable sales)

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Unadjusted Rx growth for MAT and YTD May is negative, but adjusted growth is higher, at 2.9% for MAT May and 2.1% year to date

Growth (%) of Dispensed Rx

Unadjusted Rx Adjusted Rx

2.3%

-0.6%

0.1%

-0.5%

-2.0%

-7.0%

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

2016 2017* 2018 2019 MATMAY2020

YTDMAY2020

3.9%2.7% 3.2% 2.9% 2.1%

-7.0%

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

2016 2017* 2018 2019 MATMAY2020

YTDMAY2020

Source: IQVIA, National Prescription Audit & RxInsight, May 2020; Retail, Mail, and LTC limited to Rx and OTC Insulins*Note: Declines between 2016 and 2017 are due to VRAF enhancement from 2017 onwards

Gro

wth

(%

)

Gro

wth

(%

)

10

Unbranded and branded generics account for 19.4% of spending in 2020

88.6% of prescriptions are dispensed as unbranded generics for 2020 (adjusted)

Source: IQVIA, National Sales Perspectives, National Prescription Audit, May 2020Note: Numbers may not add exactly to 100% due to rounding

73.8% 74.8% 76.9% 78.7% 80.1% 80.7%

11.4% 10.4% 9.4% 9.3% 8.9% 7.9%

10.2% 10.3% 10.1% 9.7% 8.8% 8.4%

5.2% 4.8% 4.4% 4.2% 3.7% 3.5%

16.0% 14.9% 13.0% 11.6% 11.0% 11.0%

83.4% 84.8% 86.2% 86.6% 87.4% 88.6%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Dollars (%) Adjusted Prescriptions (%)

Brands Branded Generics Unbranded Generics

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MM

Es

Dis

pens

ed B

n

<20 20<50 50<90 90+

Opioids as Measured by Morphine Milligram Equivalent Volume and MME per Day Segments

Prescription opioid volume has declined by 51% since the 2011 peak with the greatest reduction in higher risk segments

Source: IQVIA Xponent, Feb 2020; IQVIA Institute Feb 2020

Percent Change from 2011

90+ MME per Day -70%

50<90 MME per Day -32%

20<50 MME per Day -35%

<20 MME per Day -11%

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Evaluating the impact

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COVID-19 spreads rapidly to more than 200 countries

Source: JHU, CSSE, https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/, updated Jul 2 , 2020

COVID-19 cases is expanding rapidly worldwideNumber of infections globally is increasing

rapidly in the past 10 days

Number of global infections

(in thousands)

As of Jul 1, 10,357,662 confirmed cases, 508,055 deaths216 countries, areas or territories with cases

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Adaptive pressures could impact future transmission as well as efficacy of vaccines based upon earlier viral characteristics

SARS CoV-2 mutations are relatively infrequent although G615 mutation has quickly become dominant globally

IQVIA Global Executive Briefing: COVID-19 June 2020; Copyright 2020 IQVIA.

SARS-CoV-2 spike protein• SNP mutations (green)• D614G mutation (red)

SARS CoV-2 in Wuhan (D614 in orange)

Impact of viral mutations:

• Increased likelihood of mutations as infections increase

• Efficacy of vaccines based upon earlier versions of virus

• Accuracy of diagnostic tests

• Transmission capacity

• Severity of infection

• Potential need for booster vaccines

doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054doidoi.org/10.1101/2020.04.28.066977doi

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COVID-19 spreads quickly in US, more cases are reported as more people being tested

Source: Johns Hopkins University

US

United States329.8M people

Number of total cases in US

(in thousands)

As of 7:00am EST July 2: 2,686,587 confirmed cases128,062 deaths

• March 13 – President declared National State of Emergency

• March 26 – US has most cases in world

• April 10 – 97% of Americans under stay-at home orders

• May 20 – All states have partially reopened

• July 1 – US has daily record of new cases

Number of new cases in US

(in thousands)

2686

0500

1000

1500200025003000

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

16

Simulation band of active cases in next 150 days in US

Note: Shaded area is the range of values that is likely to include the correct projected estimate for a given data category. Wider band can result from limited data availability, small studies, and conflicting data, while smaller band can result from extensive data availability, large studies, and data that are accurate and transparent. The model presented has 3 scenarios and is represented by the shaded area(s) on each chart. The simulation will be further updated due to dynamic Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention in the U.S. Updated on Jul 2 2020

Projected total confirmed cases

Projected total confirmed cases

per 100kpopulation

Estimated Peak time

OptimisticScenario 4.2M 1286.6 7/18/2020

NormalScenario 5.1M 1537.4 7/28/2020

PessimisticScenario 6.0M 1814.5 8/3/2020

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CDC expands list of people at risk of severe COVID-19 illness

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0625-update-expands-covid-19.html

People of any age with these conditions are at increased risk

Asthma (moderate to severe)

Pulmonary Fibrosis (having damaged or scarred lung tissue)

Smoking

Cystic Fibrosis

Immunocompromised from blood or bone marrow transplant, immune deficiencies, HIV, corticosteroid use (or other immunosuppressant)

Cerebrovascular Disease (affects blood vessels and blood supply to the brain)

Hypertension or high blood pressure

Thalassemia (a type of blood disorder)

Type 1 Diabetes mellitus

Neurological conditions, such as dementia

Liver Disease

Pregnancy

Chronic kidney disease

COPD(chronic obstructive pulmonary disease)

Serious Heart conditions, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease, or cardiomyopathies

Type 2 Diabetes mellitus

Obesity(body mass index [BMI] of 30 or higher)

Immunocompromised (weakened immune system) from solid organ transplant

Sickle Cell Disease

People with these conditions might be at an increased risk

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In addition to official COVID-19 deaths, there were above normal deaths in related patient categories

At its peak, COVID-19 was one of the leading causes of death in US and other Western countries

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-compared-to-other-common-us-causes-of-death-2020-5?r=US&IR=T and https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm (accessed 2020-06-24)

Using the UK as an example, COVID19 deaths reached 40k, while COPD averages around 30k deaths annually (Source: British Lung Foundation)

Excess mortality may be due to unappreciated cause of death due to COVID-19 (Alzheimer’s Disease) or

delayed treatment (ischemic heart disease)

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 10

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An increasing number of states are facing surged pressure on healthcare capacity as infections rise post states opening

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Diagnostic Testing CapacityDecline in Cases

Health Facility & Worker Capacity

COVID-19 Hospitalizations as % of State Hospital Beds (5/1 – 6/30)

Capacity continues to ease in NY, while utilization has increased in CA, TX, and AZ. All 3 states have paused/reversed reopening orders.

• The total number of contact tracers has expanded to 44k from roughly 11k at the start of the pandemic

• At present, only 7 states have sufficient tracers to meet the National Association of County and City Health Officials standard of 30 tracers per 100K during periods of pandemic

Public Health System Capacity

Source: Nephron COVID-19 Daily Tracker, data ending June 29, 2020 ‘Global Cases Not Abating’ Click this link to subscribe to the Nephron Research COVID-19 Daily Tracker

*5-day trend is based on data from 06/25 to 06/29 per data cutoff date of the report.**Sign of rebound after a state has passed the case growth threshold are an increase in 5-day growth trend and at least one day of new cases/100K greater than 10 *14-day trend is based on data from 06/16 to 06/29 per data cutoff date of the report

• 7 states and DC have demonstrated a 14-day* decline in the trend in % positive

• No state has yet met the CDC metric of 14 consecutive days included in draft technical guidance

• The % positive test remains above 10% in AZ, NV, FL, SC, TX, GA, AL, ID and AR over the prior week

• All states, except MD, MA, DC, NJ, NY, RI, and SD, showed an increase in case growth

• Daily case growth and 5-day trend* suggest that none of these 6 states plus DC shows sign of rebound**, but caution is warranted in 3

• CO has shown the most signs of rebound** in the past 14 days

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Oncology NBRx rolling 4-wk growth

+3.1%

Week-over-week, visits are up while elective procedures, prescriptions and labs are down, as the economy shows signs of easing

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Data Week Ending June 19, 2020Published July 3, 2020

+1.4%Increase in NBRx vs. prior week, and continues are down -0.6% (W/E 6/19/2020)

-9.9%

Weekly increase in elective procedures

-6.8%Weekly increase in labs

16.0% Institutional

16.1% Office

2.4% Telehealth

Weekly visit growth

Click this link to subscribe to the Nephron Research COVID-19 Daily Tracker

Oncology patient interactions

Still exceeding baseline with new diagnoses at 96% of baseline

-2.0% retail

-1.2% mail

% Change in total prescriptions vs. prior week (W/E 6/26/2020)

Oncology Weekly Changes

19.3M

Continuing unemployment (w/e 6/20) claims which was flat vs. prior week

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As the virus rapidly spread in several heavily populated states, prescription growth against last year pulled back

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Source: IQVIA: National Prescription Audit (NPA)Week 1 2019 = W/E 1/11/2019; Week 1 2020 = W/E 1/10/2020, Week 24 2019 = W/E 6/21/2019; Week 24 2020 = W/E 6/19/2020; Channel prescriptions not normalized for prescription size

January February March April May

2.2% 2.0%3.4%

2.1%1.4% 2.0% 1.8%

-0.7%

3.8%

6.2%

13.1%

-1.7%

-8.2% -8.8% -8.4% -8.9%

-12.0%

-9.3%-7.9% -7.4%

-5.6% -6.1%

-1.9%-0.8%

-2.7%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Ye

ar

ove

r Y

ea

r %

Week

Year over Year Growth –TRx Across Time Aligned Weeks

June

22

Despite softness in continuing prescriptions increases in face to face engagement in the office continue to drive new to brand growth

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

58.6

62.163.4

69.7

61.659.8 59.1 58.5

57.4 57.5 57.9 57.5 57.8

54.7

59.1 59.4 59.0 5

10

15

20

25

50

55

60

65

70

75

Bas

elin

e

03-

06

03-

13

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

NB

Rx

Mill

ion

s

CR

xM

illio

ns

Cont Rx NBRx

Source: IQVIA: National Prescription Audit (NPA), National Prescription Audit: New to Brand (NPA NTB); 2020; Baseline 2020 Period = Average share of NTB % and CRX % for weekly aggregate 1/10/2020-2/28/2020

-0.6% Continues

vs. Prior Week

1.4%NBRx

57.4 57.5 57.9 57.5 57.8

54.7

59.1 59.4 59.0

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

50

52

54

56

58

60

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

Mill

ion

s

Supported by previously increasing NBRx and holiday delays CRX volume continues to grow

21

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 12

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-9.00

-8.00

-7.00

-6.00

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

Diff

ere

nce

fro

m b

ase

line

, ne

w p

resc

riptio

ns

(Mn

) A

cute

& C

hro

nic

(In

do

tte

d li

ne

s)

Diff

ere

nce

fro

m b

ase

line

, n

ew

pre

scrip

tion

s M

n)

Mental Health Antidiabetics Antihypertensives, Plain & Combo

Antibacterials Respiratory Agents Narcotic Analgesics

Acute Chronic

New Prescriptions were disrupted as patients were unable to see prescribers

Source: IQVIA National Prescription Audit Patients Insights, Jul 2020

Difference from baseline of new Product Prescriptions, Millions

24

As numerous rates report rapid increases in positive tests, prescription trends show signs of retreat

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

-2.0%Retail

vs. Prior Week

-1.2% Mail

Total Prescriptions

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

02-

07

02-

14

02-

21

02-

28

03-

06

03-

13

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

06-

26

Mill

ion

s

Mill

ion

s

TRx by Channel through W/E 6/19

RETAIL TRX MAIL TRX

Source: IQVIA: National Prescription Audit (NPA); 2020; 2019 Average Week = YTD time aligned weeks from 2019; Mail + Retail volumes onlyPrescription volumes not normalized for prescription size

After starting the year +2.5% vs. 2019, YTD TRx is -2.1% vs. 2019

73.4M 72.0M

2019 Average Week* = 77.2M2020 Average Pre-COVID Week = 79.2M

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 13

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While retail TRx continues below last year’s trends, patients continue to drive volume into the mail channel

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Source: IQVIA: National Prescription Audit (NPA), National Prescription Audit: New to Brand (NPA NTB); 2019-2020Week 1 2019 = W/E 1/11/2019; Week 1 2020 = W/E 1/10/2020, Week 24 2019 = W/E 6/21/2019; Week 24 2020 = W/E 6/19/2020; Channel prescriptions not normalized for prescription size

January February March April May

-2.5% -1.9%

0.4% 1.4% 1.1%

-1.4%

3.7%1.8%

5.9% 6.1%

18.0%20.6%

9.7%5.7%

0.1% 0.7%

-0.7% -0.8% -1.4%

1.9%

9.3% 7.5%11.4% 11.6%

7.2%

-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Ye

ar

ove

r Y

ea

r %

Week

Year over Year Growth – Mail Channel TRx Across Time Aligned Weeks

2.5% 2.2% 3.6% 2.2% 1.4% 2.1% 1.7%

-0.9%

3.7%6.2%

12.9%

-2.9%

-9.2% -9.6% -8.8% -9.5%-12.6%

-9.8%-8.3% -7.9% -6.4% -6.8%

-2.7%-0.7%

-3.3%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Ye

ar

ove

r Y

ea

r %

Year over Year Growth – Retail Channel TRx Across Time Aligned Weeks

June

26

Prescriptions with 3 month supply are at or near YTD highs as patients look to increase the size of their prescriptions

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

19.7%

23.4%

76.5%77.3%

74%

75%

76%

77%

78%

79%

80%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

% OF 3 MO RX - RETAIL % OF 3 MO RX - MAIL

% of 3 month TRx by Week – Retail vs. Mail Channel

Source: IQVIA: National Prescription Audit (NPA); 2020

• As patients considered stay-at-home orders the % of extended retail fills steady grew through COVID

• There was a dip in the rate of extended mail fills likely due to a heavier proportion of first-time/ bridge RX fills as patients stayed-at-home

• These changes will impact adherence and compliance considerations as patients make fewer trips back to the pharmacy to fill an RX

25

26

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 14

27

Adherence rates in each market are more than 30 percentage points higher for patients getting the Majority 90-day Rx’s

90-day Rxs are an effective way to increase adherence rates

48%

78%81% 54%

81%

84%

52%

79%

82%

0

5

10

15

20

25

No 90-day Any 90-day Majority 90-day No 90-day Any 90-day Majority 90-day No 90-day Any 90-day Majority 90-day

Diabetes RASA Statins

Pat

ient

s

Mill

ions

PDC>=80% PDC<80%

Source: Information Partner Services Retail Longitudinal Patient Data May, 2019

28

The Case for Risk Adjustment in Medication Adherence

Clinically Complex Patient1 Sociodemographically Complex Patient1

• Poverty – Low income and/or no liquid assets• Low levels of formal education, literacy or health

literacy• Limited English proficiency• Minimal or no social support – not married, living

alone, no help available for essential health related tasks

• Poor living conditions – homeless, no heat or air conditioning in home or apartment, unsanitary home environment, High risk of crime

• No community resources – social support programs, public transportation, retail outlets

• Multiple Chronic Conditions• Severe Primary Condition (e.g., Severe

heart failure, metastatic cancer, end-stage renal disease)

• Concurrent mental and physical health problems

• Disease affects multiple organ systems• Disease causes significant functional

deficit or disability• Condition requires treatment by multiple

providers and/or specialized sites of care

1“Risk Adjustment for Socioeconomic Status or Other Sociodemographic Factors TECHNICAL REPORT August 15, 2014 “, National Quality Forum

“When used in accountability applications, performance measures that are influenced by factors other than the care received, particularly outcomes, need to be adjusted for relevant differences in patient case mix to avoid incorrect

inferences about performance.“ 1

27

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 15

29

Social Determinants of Health

20%

30%40%

10%

Population Health

Physical Environment

Environmental qualityBuilt Environment

Socio-EconomicFactorsEducation

EmploymentIncome

Family/Social supportCommunity Safety

Health Care

Access to careQuality of care

Health BehaviorsTobacco use

Diet & ExerciseAlcohol useUnsafe sex

Source: Authors’ analysis and adaptation from the University of WisconsinPopulation Health Institue’s County Health Rankings model ©2010, http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/about-project/background

30

As states grapple with expanded outbreaks office visits continue to increase nationally while telehealth engagement remains stable

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

0%

500%

1000%

1500%

2000%

2500%

3000%

3500%

4000%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Bas

elin

e

03-

06

03-

13

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

TELEHEALTH OFFICE INSTITUTIONAL

Data for latest week date controlled against prior periods; estimates have been applied to reflect anticipated late-adjudicated claims based on historical rates

Total Telehealth Claims Through W/E 06-19 vs. Baseline PeriodWeekly Diagnosis Visits Through W/E 06-19 Compared to Baseline Period

Source: IQVIA: Medical Claims Data Analysis, 2020; Baseline = Average of claims for period W/E 1/10/2020-2/28/2020, Estimated amounts for latest weeks applied based on likely claims still to be received due to data latency or claim processing delays; See Appendix for further details

30%21%

69%

56%

11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Bas

elin

e

03-

06

03-

13

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

Total Visit Claims by Service TypeBaseline Period – W/E 06-19

INSTITUTIONAL OFFICE TELEHEALTH

1%

29

30

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 16

31

2170%

15037%

2669%2110%

1032%

7891%

2185%

1172%

0%

2000%

4000%

6000%

8000%

10000%

12000%

14000%

16000%

Acute Chronic Asymptomatic Chronic Symptomatic Lifestyle

03-06 03-13 03-20 03-27 04-03 04-10 04-17 04-2405-01 05-08 05-15 05-22 05-29 06-05 06-12 06-19

Telehealth has impacted all types of conditions – but most notably those that are chronic asymptomatic

Weekly Telehealth Visit Engagement (W/E 3/6/20-6/19/20) by Disease TypeVisit % Compared to Baseline Period

Source: IQVIA: Medical Claims Data Analysis, 2020; Baseline = Average of claims for period W/E 1/10/2020-2/28/2020, Estimated amounts for latest weeks applied based on likely claims still to be received due to data latency or claim processing delays; See Appendix for further details

Data for latest week date controlled against prior periods; estimates have been applied to reflect anticipated late-adjudicated claims based on historical rates

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

32

74% 77%72%

77%

57%

71%82%

62%52%

64%71% 72% 72%

9% 6%9%

14%

11%

15%4%

1%

6%

24%17%

7%11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

F2F NBRX TH NBRX

2019 NBRx

Over the course of the pandemic, the increased presence of telehealth engagement has not made up for the reduction in NBRx vs. last year

2020 YTD NBRx as a % of 2019 NBRx by F2F & TH Visits

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Source: IQVIA: NPA New To Brand (NTB); 2019-2020 plus custom analysis of telehealth and face-to-face office patient interaction, 2019 Period = W/E 3/8/19-6/7/19 vs. 2020 Period = W/E 3/6/20-6/19/20

• Throughout the COVID period, total NBRx rates have dropped since 2019 given fewer office visits

• While the use of telehealth to conduct visits has increased significantly, this has not closed the gap between 2019 and 2020

• Given that telehealth engagement varies by specialty, and with fewer NBRx being generated per telehealth visit, the 2020/2019 gap will likely continue to widen

31

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 17

33

Specialty4 W/E 6/21/19

Office4 W/E 6/19/20

Office4 W/E 6/19/20

TelehealthDifference (%)Office v. TM

Dermatologists 1.16 1.16 0.97 -17%

Allergists 1.01 1.01 0.79 -22%

Pediatrics 1.16 1.16 0.80 -31%

Rheumatologists 0.52 0.52 0.36 -32%

Gastroenterologists 1.04 1.04 0.70 -32%

PCP 0.99 0.99 0.67 -33%

Ob/Gyn 1.14 1.15 0.77 -33%

Ophthalmologists 1.31 1.31 0.87 -33%

Neurologists 0.55 0.55 0.36 -35%

Psychiatry 0.44 0.44 0.27 -39%

Cardiologists 0.64 0.65 0.38 -41%

Urology 1.16 1.16 0.65 -44%

Endocrinologists 0.60 0.61 0.33 -46%

Overall telehealth NBRx productivity remains lower than office visits given several engagement drivers

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Note: Prior publication of this slide erroneously used projected new to brand metrics – the current slide has been revised to use eligible RAW NBRx for greater accuracy; Source: NPA New To Brand (NPA NTB); Medical Claims analysis; 2020; Custom analysisEvaluation of medical claims visit with same patient/prescriber combination occurring as NBRx within 2 weeks of medical claim service date

NBRx Per Patient Visit

• Patient mix skews towards existing patients replacing office visits with telehealth

• Willingness to initiate new therapy remotely

• Lack of diagnostics such as vitals and labs are impeding diagnosis of new conditions

• Prescribers are reporting spending less time on a telehealth call with patients which may reduce NBRxopportunity

Potential Drivers of Difference

34

All conditions have appeared to returning to pre-COVID volume levels with telehealth compensating for in office shortcomings for many conditions

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

TRADITIONAL SPECIALTY

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Diagnosis visit growth W/E 6/12 & 6/19 vs. Baseline

OFFICE TELEHEALTH

AD

HD

DE

PR

ES

SIO

N

MIG

RA

INE

GE

RD

HT

N

T2

D

LU

PU

S

CR

OH

N’S

PS

OR

IAS

IS RA

MS

Data for latest week date controlled against prior periods; estimates have been applied to reflect anticipated late-adjudicated claims based on historical rates

Source: IQVIA: Medical Claims Data Analysis, 2020; Baseline = Average of claims for period W/E 1/10/2020-2/28/2020, Estimated amounts for latest 2 weeks applied based on likely claims still to be received due to data latency or claim processing delays; See Appendix for further details

33

34

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 18

35

As new therapy patients stayed at home due to COVID-19, they have shown to be more adherent to their medications vs. last year

98% 99% 99%

77%80% 80%

75%

79% 78%

56%

61%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Baseline NTS Cohort Jan-20 NTS Cohort Feb-20 NTS Cohort

30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 120 Days

COVID Period

COVID Period

Cholesterol Market Persistence Jan-20/Feb-20 NTS Patient Cohorts vs. 2019 Baseline Cohorts

• In March, as patients accelerated therapies as part of a medication stockpiling trend, many became over-adherent

• Staying at home combined with a large shift to 90 day scripts has resulted in persistency rates higher than 2019 baseline cohorts

NOTE: A patient is considered adherent if they obtain a refill of their medication within a period equal to 2x the days supply of the medication previously received

Cohort30D % Chg

60D %Chg

90D % Chg

120D % Chg

Jan-2020 1% 3% 4% 5%

Feb-2020 1% 3% 3% NA

Persistence rates include patients who switched medications but restarted on another clinically relevant drug Source: NPA Market Dynamics; Compliance and Persistence Module; IQVIA standard clinical market definitions; Baseline = average of new therapy start patient cohorts from June 2019 – December 2019

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

36

Recovery rates for traditional medications have grown to over 90% of pre-virus levels while more complex treatments lag in recovery

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

103% 97% 97% 95% 94% 91% 91% 90%

73%88% 87% 81% 78%

68% 61%50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ALP

HA

-GLU

CO

S

AN

TIS

EIZ

UR

E

ME

LAT

ON

IN A

GE

NT

S

AN

TIP

SY

CH

OT

ICS

PP

I

SS

RI

NE

W G

EN

AN

TID

EP

DP

P-4

NE

W G

EN

PS

YC

HO

TH

ER

IMM

UN

OS

UP

P/T

RN

SP

LT

GI A

NT

I-IN

FLA

M

AN

TIA

RT

HB

IOLO

GIC

S

MO

NO

CL

ON

AN

TI

IMM

UN

OM

OD

PC

SK

9

INT

ER

FE

RO

NS

SPECIALTYTRADITIONAL

NBRx Recovery Rates for Selected USC4 Classes W/E 6/19 vs. Baseline

Source: IQVIA: National Prescription Audit (NPA), National Prescription Audit: New to Brand (NPA NTB); 2020; Recovery Rate = W/E 6/19/20 NBRx over Average Baseline 2020 Period NBRx; 1/10/2020-2/28/2020

35

36

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 19

37

Elective procedure volumes may be finding a new baseline as sites grapple with capacity and patients are slow to return

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

0% 0% -2%

-43%

-81%-86% -87% -87%

-84%-78%

-60%

-45%

-34%

-43%

-27%-25%

-33%

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10% Weekly Elective Procedures as a % of Baseline

Data for latest week date controlled against prior periods; estimates have been applied to reflect anticipated late-adjudicated claims based on historical rates

Source: IQVIA: Medical Claims Data Analysis, 2020; Baseline = Average of procedures for period W/E 1/10/2020-2/28/2020, Elective procedures based on IQVIA custom analysisEstimated amounts for latest 2 weeks applied based on likely claims still to be received due to data latency or claim processing delays; See Appendix for further details

• Definition of elective procedures is inconsistent and may vary geographically

• Once states permitted elective procedures to resume the immediate recovery occurred with already scheduled patients

• Full recovery depends on the ability for the system to regenerate patients through diagnosing, testing, and scheduling

• The potential for further outbreaks may reduce capacity as the system undergoes further preparations

38

Office based lab orders continue to grow as patients reengage with providers but hospital sites lag as elective procedures slow

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

33%

-32%

14%

-51%

-14%

-7%

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

URGENT CARE

OUTPATIENT

OFFICE

INPATIENT

IND LAB

ALL SITES

Lab Test Recovery Rates by Order SiteW/E 6/19 vs. Baseline Period

National Recovery Rate = 66.0%Weekly Growth = -6.9%

Lab Test Weekly Growth Rates by Place of Service (6/19 vs 6/12)

Data for latest week date controlled against prior periods; estimates have been applied to reflect anticipated late-adjudicated claims based on historical rates

Source: IQVIA: Medical Claims Data Analysis, 2020; Baseline = Average of lab orders for period W/E 1/10/2020-2/28/2020, Estimated amounts for latest 2 weeks applied based on likely claims still to be received due to data latency or claim processing delays; See Appendix for further details

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%05-08 05-15 05-22 05-29 06-05 06-12 06-19

37

38

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 20

39

As patient comfort with office visits increases, brands with IV options are seeing patient administered options decrease

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Source: IQVIA: Weekly Sales Perspectives (WSP); 2020; “Patient administered” reflect injectable forms that do not require a professional to administer

• Benlysta is IV for HCPs and subQ for patients

• Fasenra is available as a pre-filled syringe for HCPs and an autoinjector for patients

• Nucala is available as an injection vial for HCPs and a prefilled syringe and autoinjector for patients

• Orencia is IV for HCPs and subQ for patients

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Se

lf-a

dm

inis

tere

d a

s p

erc

en

tage

of t

ota

l sa

les

02-07 02-14 02-21 02-28 03-06 03-13 03-20 03-27 04-03 04-10

04-17 04-24 05-01 05-08 05-15 05-22 05-29 06-05 06-12 06-19

40

While all vaccines have recovered, overall utilization remains below pre-COVID levels and lower than 2019

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

02-

07

02-

14

02-

21

02-

28

03-

06

03-

13

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

Weekly Volume Unit Clinic Sales for Selected Pediatric Vaccines* Through W/E 6/19

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

02-

07

02-

14

02-

21

02-

28

03-

06

03-

13

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

Weekly Volume Unit Clinic Sales for Selected Adult Vaccines* Through W/E 6/19

-10%

-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%

YoY Weekly Growth % – Pediatric Vaccine Market Basket

-20%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%YoY Weekly Growth % – Adult Vaccine Market Basket

Source: IQVIA Weekly Sales Perspectives (WSP), February – May 2020; Note: Data reflects sales to clinic channel as defined by IQVIA –No methodology has been applied to determine VACCINE USE BY AGE

39

40

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 21

41

Oncology

42

Hem/Onc key patient and treatment dynamics continue to rebound and to show with some rebounds; F2F oncology promotion still down significantly

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Oncology & Hematology Data Week Ending June 19, 2020Published July 2, 2020

14%F2F Detail (6/26 as a percentage of overall Oncology detail activity)

+3.1%Increase in NBRx vs. prior week

6.2% Weekly share of telehealth visits

101.5% In-person

96.0% Newly Diagnosed

100.1% Referrals

Weekly visit volume to pre Covid-19 Baseline

Click this link to subscribe to the Nephron Research COVID-19 Daily Tracker

100%

Total Oncology Details(6/26 as a

percentage of overall Oncology detail activity to pre Covid-19 baseline)

96.2% Total Oncologics

102.2% Oral Oncologics

94.4% IV Oncologics

Weekly demand unit volume to pre Covid-19 Baseline

41

42

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 22

43

HEM/ONC F2F patient interactions have exceeded baseline in both of the last two weeks as stay-in-place orders continued to ease

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

03-

13

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

Oncology patient interactions as a percentage of baseline (4 wks ending 2-28)

Total Visits Newly Diagnosed

Notes: Limited to oncology market. 4-week average weekly volume (admins, visits, TRxs), index period: 4-week ending with 2/28/20; Source: IQVIA Oncology medical and pharmacy claims

Notes: Limited to oncology market. Telehealth vs. Non Telehealth Billed activitiesSource: IQVIA Oncology medical claims

102%0% 3%

5%7%

9%9%

10% 9%9% 8%

7%

6% 6% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Ind

ex

03-

13

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

Oncology patient interactions as a percentage of baseline date (4 wks ending 2-28)

In-Person Telehealth

In-person patient interactions now exceed 100% of baseline for the first time since the

pandemic impacted oncology activity

Total interaction activity surpassed baseline

Newly diagnosed activity increasing back to 96% of

baseline

44

Backlog of oncology in-person visits varies widely by state with NY, NJ, CT still below comparable baseline volumes

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Notes: Limited to oncology market. COVID period (w/e 3/13 – 6/19) 4-week average weekly volume (In-person Visits), index period: 4-week ending with 2/28/20; Source: IQVIA Oncology medical and pharmacy claims

In-Person visit (accumulated) backlog as % normalized baseline (4 wks ending 2-28)

43

44

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 23

45

Backlog of oncology new diagnoses is large, with several states behind by up to 1/3 accumulated baseline volume

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Notes: Limited to oncology market. COVID period (w/e 3/13 – 6/19) 4-week average weekly volume (Newly Diagnosed), index period: 4-week ending with 2/28/20; Source: IQVIA Oncology medical and pharmacy claims

New patient diagnoses (accumulated) backlog as % normalized baseline (4 wks ending 2-28)

46

-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%

Solid Tumor

Lung

Melanoma

Breast

Prostate

Hem Malignancies

Myeloma

Leukemia

NHL

Polycythemia

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

Ind

ex

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

Solid Tumor Hem Malignancies

Overall oncology referral activity has returned to baseline in the current week overall; but variability still remains by tumor

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Oncology Referral activity as a percentage of baseline (4 wks ending 2-28)

Tumor-specific most recent 4-week average referral activity as a percentage of baseline (4 wks ending 2-28)

Notes: Limited to oncology market. COVID period (w/e 3/13 – 6/19) 4-week average weekly volume (referral), index period: 4-week ending with 2/28/20; Source: IQVIA Oncology medical and pharmacy claims

Referral activity re-established baseline

45

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 24

47

Overall oncologic sales demand has leveled off at baseline with demand for IVs and orals converging

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Index 03-13 03-27 04-10 04-24 05-08 05-22 06-05 06-19

Rx (ORAL SOLID) IV (SYSTEMIC INJECTABLE) Other

Oncologic Sales Demand (Pack Units) Rolling 4 Weeksbaseline (4 wks ending 2-28)

Oral oncology agents are showing growth while IV oncology agents show some minor volatility as physicians continue to adapt to altered prescribing patterns resulting from the pandemic

With significant increases in total healthcare (outside of the Hem/Onc offices), other routes of administration are returning to baseline demand rates driven by increased usage of topical oncologic agents

Notes: Limited to oncology market. COVID period average weekly (rolling 4-weeks) pack units, index period: 4-week ending with 2/28/20; Source: IQVIA WSP

48

-1.7%

-3.5%

-6.3% -6.2%

-7.3%

-4.5%

-2.6% -2.5%

0.5%

2.2%

4.1%

0.0%

3.7% 3.9%

3.1%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

03-

13

03-

20

03-

27

04-

03

04-

10

04-

17

04-

24

05-

01

05-

08

05-

15

05-

22

05-

29

06-

05

06-

12

06-

19

New to brand starts have surpassed baseline as patient activity continues to fill the backlog created by the pandemic

COVID-19 Market Impact - w/e June 19, 2020

Notes: Limited to oncology market. COVID period 4-week average weekly volume (NBRx); Source: IQVIA Weekly Patient Insights

Oncologic Overall Oral NBRx Rolling 4 Week Growth Rate

47

48

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Health Care Trends and the Impact of COVID-19 25

49

Closing Thoughts

50

Results of notable clinical studies

IQVIA Global Executive Briefing: COVID-19 June 2020; Copyright 2020 IQVIA.

IL-6 inhibitor Sarilumab (-)Critical arm ongoing

IL=-6 inhibitor Tocilzumab (+/-)

IL-6 inhibitor Leronlimab (+)

Immune modulation

+ in combination with ribavirin and interferon 1b

(-) vs. standard of care

Lopinavir/ritonavir

US safety studies (+)

NYU series (+)Convalescent

plasma

China case-reports (+)

WHO SOLIDARITY Study:(-) halt due to interim analysis

VA Study real-world study (-)

Univ. of Minnesota post-exposure (-)

Hydroxy-chloroquine

French case report study (+)

Australia HCP prophylaxis (ongoing)

>600 ongoingclinicalstudies

Dexamethasone (+)

Key

Remdesivir

ACTT (+: 15 vs. 11 days inpatient and mortality trend)

China study RCT (-)

Case reports (+)

= demonstrates positive benefit

= negative effect or outcome

= neutral or ongoing study

Source: https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-therapeutics-tracker

(-) RECOVERY Trial

Henry Ford inpatient case-control (+)

WHO SOLIDARITY Study:(-) halt due to interim analysis

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Real implications for the supply chain affect multiple points to be discussed

COVID-19 is undoubtably a major supply chain disruptor

Rx SUPPLY CHAIN

PatientPatient demand for e-

scripts or home delivery

APILocation of raw material, and visibility to volumes

Finished doseCollation of raw materials and manufacturing (stockpiling)

PackagingOften separate sites to package finished medicines

LogisticsDisruption to commercial airline industry, and cross-border travel

WholesalersSafety stock, or stockpiling key

medicines, PPE, vaccination, home delivery all become altered

Corporate HQResponsible for understanding their supply chain,

and COVID19treatment capacity

PharmaciesHospital/retail/chain/independent resilience to demand peaks and

troughs. Notably impacted by location

IQVIA Global Supplier & Association Relations Perspectives, June 2020

Key: High to low impact

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There are risks that the required supply will not be problematic, now and for the future

Focus towards international availability of API and logistics

31%

31%

17%

13%

8%

40%

24%

17%

11%

8%

Active ingredients Finished doses

US Rest of worldChina India EU

48% from India and China

32% from India and China

• China manufacturing is coming back on line• Slipped by 10% to 20% during early days of outbreak

• India lock-down and export ban affect supply• 21-day lock down; essential services including

pharmaceutical manufacturing are allowed to continue

• Ban on export of 26 APIs, including paracetamol, in March; mostly lifted in April

• Air freight shortage limits access to medicines• Medicines for Europe have called for the EU to make

use of grounded commercial aircraft for drug supply

• In the US cargo capacity is less than 50% of normal. Rates that are 4-6X normal rates

• Suppliers reduce employees per shift to ~50 –65% of historic levels

• Manufacturers are seeing increased costs on raw materials and transportation

Location of Generic (Gx) Manufacturing Facilities (provided by AAM)

Sources: AAM’s SVP of Sciences and Regulatory Affairs provided testimony at the House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee; FDA FY2020 data, https://accessiblemeds.org/resources/blog/aam-testimony-generic-global-supply-chain-five-takeaways and https://accessiblemeds.org/sites/default/files/2020-03/AAM-Buy-American-One-Pager.pdf; Interviews with supply stakeholders from IQVIA Industry Relations (April 2020); https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/chinese-apis-flowing-but-indian-ban-hinders-u-s-approval-hydroxychloroquine; https://www.medicinesforeurope.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Public-statement-COVID-Air-freight-21March-2020.pdf;

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Wholesalers and pharmacies are national / regional strategic assets to the system

Supply chain is now a recognised pillar of medical innovation

Global Supplier & Association Relations perspectives – May 2020

Pre-COVID19 model• Limited visibility to the flow of goods within

the system• Limited public awareness, and low perception

Post-COVID19 model• Strategic asset to companies and governments • Increasing transparency + centralised data

collection• Top-tier government priority

• Most Governments have implemented key measures

• Approving electronic prescriptions

• Essential status to wholesaler operations

• Economic Incentives

• National Critical drugs list

• Stockpiling Strategy for future pandemic

• Measures to improve transparency

• Policy pressure to in-source/diversify manufacturing

• Higher security in delivery results in higher cost

• Unclear whether these initiatives will maintain momentum or fade as crisis fades

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Perspectives on future scenarios

Regardless of how the pandemic ends, supply is key

Source: IQVIA Global Supplier & Association Relations perspectives, May 2020; https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html

‘Social’ endSocieties adapt to different environment in-lieu of, or while awaiting medical treatment

Accelerated• Disease burns out

due to death of susceptible

Minimisation• Testing capacity• Effective isolation of

vulnerable individuals • Integration of

detection, quarantine and treatment

‘Medical’ endVirus impact minimized by development

of medical interventions, or mutates

Treatment(s)Vaccine(s) Self-limitation• Scale of manufacturing

and potentially complex distribution

• Potential need for multi-dose

• Disease mutates to be less virulent or infectious

• Scale of manufacturing and distribution

• Value of outpatient vs. inpatient therapies

• Selling PPE, home treatments and advice

• Home delivery• Clinical trials

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Hormonal contraceptives

Tobacco cessation products

Pre-exposure prophylaxis/post-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP/PEP)

Preventive care and immunizations

Pharmacist-provided services can have an impact on patient access

Test and treat for seasonal influenza treatment/prophylaxis and Group A streptococcal pharyngitis (strep throat)

Treatment of uncomplicated minor ailments

Chronic care management programs

Statins in patients with diabetes

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Patients visit pharmacies 10x more frequently than they see other healthcare providers1

Pharmacists roles are

expanding

Chronic Disease Management Health & Wellness Care

Conduct Therapeutic Interchange

Minor Ailment Care

Immunizations

Preventive Health Screenings

Specialty Medicare Care & Counselling

Pharmacogenomics Counselling

Transitions of Care

Medication Optimization

1 Hemberg N, Huggins D, et al. Innovative Community Pharmacy Practice Models in North Carolina. North Carolina Medical Journal. June 2017. http://www.ncmedicaljournal.com/content/78/3/198.full

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Compliance is undoubtedly the biggest source of inefficiency and opportunity

• Adherence decreases with the frequency of the regimen:

Source: IQVIA European Thought Leadership; IQVIA Institute 2012 “Responsible use of Medicine; https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3711878/; http://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/1357338

57%Non-adherence

9%

Delayed evidence-basedtreatment practise

13%

11%Antibiotic misuse

Medication errors

62

6%Suboptimal generic use

269

4%Mismanaged polypharmacy

in the elderly

42

100%Total avoidable costs

18

54

30

475

USA Estimated avoidable costs (2012) bn USD

72%

1x69%

2x65%

3x51%

4xDaily dosing

Adherence rate

• Packaging is important: A study on using calendar packaging in 7 trials showed 6 showed positive results

• Therapy areas matter:

- Adherence is greatest in patients with HIV, arthritis, gastro or cancer.

- Lowest in pulmonary, diabetes or sleep disorders.

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Adherence is not uniform regionally and varies by different factors, such as method of payment: Med D is most adherent

State Level Market Adherence Rates by Method of Payment –Diabetes

Source: IQVIA, State Level Market Adherence Rates by Method of Payment, MAT December 2018

Significant range of variability between

states

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Disclaimer:

• The analyses, their interpretation, and related information contained herein are made and provided subject to the assumptions, methodologies, caveats, and variables described in this report and are based on third party sources and data reasonably believed to be reliable. No warranty is made as to the completeness or accuracy of such third party sources or data.

• As with any attempt to estimate future events, the forecasts, projections, conclusions, and other information included herein are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and are not to be considered guarantees of any particular outcome.

• All reproduction rights, quotations, broadcasting, publications reserved. No part of this presentation may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without express written consent of IQVIA.

• ©2019 IQVIA Incorporated and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Trademarks are registered in the United States and in various other countries.

Thank you

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Doug Long, Vice President, Industry RelationsDoug Long is Vice President of Industry Relations at IQVIA (formerly QuintilesIMS), the world’s largest pharmaceutical information company. IQVIA offers services to the pharmaceutical industry in over 100 countries around the globe. Doug has been with IQVIA since 1989.

His fundamental task is to help secure data for all existing and new databases supported by IQVIA, manage supplier, manufacturer & association relationships, and develop information for data partners. As direct consequence of his involvement in these areas, Doug has considerable experience with, and a unique perspective on, the changing U.S. and global healthcare marketplace and pharmaceutical distribution.

Doug is a frequent industry speaker and the recipient of many awards from trade groups. Before joining IQVIA Doug held positions at Nielsen Market Research for 16 years in various sales and marketing capacities. A native of Illinois, Doug received a BA from DePauw University and holds an MBA in management from Fairleigh Dickinson University.

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Questions?

For a list of upcoming webinars, visit www.amcp.org/calendar

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