COVID 19 Impact on European Aviation...COVID 19 Impact on European Aviation HEADLINES: 8,994 flights...

COVID 19 Impact on European Aviation

HEADLINES:

8,994 flights on 10 February or just 35% of 2019 levels.

7-day rolling average was -67% of 2019 and February traffic is still slowly declining.

Cargo increasing (+13% Vs 2019) with 4 freight aircraft operators in the top 20.

Domestic traffic vs 2019: Intra-Europe (-68%), China (-41%), US (-45%).

First B737 MAX operation yesterday in Europe since October (TUI flight from/to Zaventem for ‘flight readiness’).

Traffic Situation & Airlines Recovery Over the first 10 days of February, traffic is -66% compared to the same days in 2019. This is slightly above

the latest EUROCONTROL traffic scenarios dated 28 Jan 2021. However, February traffic is still slowly declining. Aircraft Operators:

Yesterday, British Airways was ranked 16th (with 91 flights, +8%), Ryanair was 19th (80 flights, +13%), easyJet was 52nd (51 flights, +38%) and Wizz Air was 37th (44 flights, +76%).

For States, France had the highest number of dep/arr flights yesterday (1,491 flights, +3% over 2 weeks) followed by Germany (1,336, +0%), Turkey (1,100, +7%), the UK (926, +8%), Spain (910, -2%), Norway (766, -2%), Italy (620, -5%) and the Netherlands (469, +1%).

Compared to 2019, Norway was at -47% (in terms of dep/arr flights), Norway (-48%), France (-60%), the Netherlands (-69%), Spain (-73%), Germany (-75%), Italy (-78%) and the UK (-82%).

Market segments: all-cargo is the only segment consistently growing since beginning of January reaching +13% vs 2019, Business Aviation is at -30%, Charter at -7%, Traditional at -72% and Low-Cost at -87%.

Traffic Flows & Country Pairs The intra-Europe flow is the main flow with 6,439 flights on 10 Feb (+2% over 2 weeks). Intra-Europe flights

are at -68% compared to 2019 while all other flows are at -55%.

Top traffic flows with Europe are with “Middle-East” (485 flights, -2%) followed by “Asia/Pacific” (428 flights, +16%), “North-Atlantic” (405 flights, +12%), “Other Europe” (266 flights, +16%).

Yesterday, the highest domestic flows were within France (735 flights, +10% over 2 weeks), Norway (629, -4%), Turkey (526, +6%), Spain (436, -4%), Germany (295, +24%), UK (294, +16%) and Italy (249, -8%).

The biggest decreases over 2 weeks were recorded for Italy (-8%) and Spain (-4%). The highest increases were for Germany (+24%) and UK (+16%), Greece (+11%), France (+10%) and Turkey (+4%).

Airports İGA Istanbul Airport was the busiest airport on 10 February with 494 Dep/Arr flights (+5% over 2 weeks)

followed by Paris CDG (442, +1%), Amsterdam (386, -1%), Frankfurt (373, +1%), Madrid (351, -6%), Istanbul/Sabiha (336, +5%), London/Heathrow (279, +4%), Cologne/Bonn (208, +5%) and Oslo (185, -10%).

Most of the 10 top airports showed an increase over 2 weeks like İGA Istanbul Airport (+5%), Istanbul/Sabiha (+5%), Cologne (+5%) and London/Heathrow (+4%). Only Olso (-10%) and Madrid (-6%) showed a decrease.

Economics Continuous increase of Fuel price since October 2020 (reaching 152 cts/gal on 5 February).

Thursday, 11 February 2021


1. Traffic Situation and Airlines Recovery

The network recorded 8,994 flights on Wednesday 10 February (+3% with +290 flights compared to Wednesday 27 January). This is 35% of 2019 traffic levels. Based on a 7-day moving average, the decrease is -67.0% compared to 2019.

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EUROCONTROL NetworkDaily Variation (Flights) compared with equivalent days in 2019

% vs. 2019 (Daily) Flights Flights 2019 (Reference) % vs. 2019 (7-day moving average)

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Traffic variation compared with 2019at Network Manager Area level

7-day moving avg of flights 7-day moving avg variation vs. 2019


Overall situation against EUROCONTROL traffic scenarios:

Over the first 10 days of February, traffic is -66% compared to the same days in 2019.

This is slightly above the latest EUROCONTROL traffic scenarios published on 28 January 2021. However, February traffic is still slowly declining.

European Airlines:

Turkish Airlines was the airline with the highest number of flights (584 flights) on Wednesday 10 February, increasing by +6% compared to Wednesday 27 January (+32 flights), followed by Air France (370 flights, -2%, -7 flights), Widerøe (316, +3%, +9), Pegasus (243, -3%, -7), DHL Express (237, -17%, -47), KLM (211, -1%, -3), Lufthansa (174, -4%, -8), Qatar (171, +4%, +7), TNT International (120, +17%, +17), Iberia (114, -20%, -29), Alitalia (110, +2%, +2), SAS (109, -28%, -42) and Bristow Norway (108, +1%, +1).

Yesterday, British Airways was ranked 16th (with 91 flights, +8%), Ryanair was 19th (80 flights, +13%), easyJet was 52nd (51 flights, +38%) and Wizz Air was 37th (44 flights, +76%).

Compared to two weeks ago, the airlines which decreased the most their capacity, were DHL express (-47 flights, -17%), SAS (-42, -28%) and Iberia (-29, -20%). Airlines which increased the most were Turkish Airlines (+32, +6%), Wizz Air (+19, +76%), LOT (+17, +31%), TNT International (+17, +15%), easyJet (+14, +38%) and Loganair (+13, +20%).

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Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21

EUROCONTROL Traffic ScenariosPublished on 28 January 2021 (base year 2019)

Scenario A: Partial improvement during Q2 (28/01/2021) Scenario B: No improvement during Q2 (28/01/2021) Actual

1-10 Feb


Compared to 2019, Widerøe operated at -11% on Wednesday 10 February followed by Pegasus (-39%), Turkish Airlines (-52%), Air Nostrum (-57%), Air France (-65%), KLM (-67%), Iberia (-67%), Lufthansa (-88%), British Airways (-89%), Ryanair (-95%) and easyJet (-96%).

News from key European airlines:

Austrian Airlines reports that 18 Q400s, 3 B767s and 7 A319s will have been removed from its fleet by early 2022.

Finnair reports passenger numbers down 92.4% (year-on-year) in January.

Jet2.com extends its suspension of services/holidays to 14 April. Lufthansa Group places an additional €1.6 billion bond.

SAS reports passenger numbers down 85.2% (year-on-year) in January. TAP Air Portugal suspends operations to Brazil until 17 Feb; reaches agreement with all its unions

for emergency collective agreements.

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Daily Variation (IFR Flights) - Wed 10 Feb 2021


TUI reports cash/cash equivalents of €2.1 billion; summer 2021 capacity 80% of 2019 level and prices 20% up.

TUI Fly Belgium: First flight of a B737 MAX yesterday in Europe since October (from/to Zaventem).

Wizz Air reports passenger numbers down 82% in January (year-on-year).

States

The top 8 busiest states1 remained broadly stable. France was the State with the highest number of dep/arr flights with 1,491 flights on Wednesday 10 February (+3% over 2 weeks) followed by Germany (1,336, +0%), Turkey (1,100, +7%), the UK (926, +8%), Spain (910, -2%), Norway (766, -2%), Italy (620, -5%) and the Netherlands (469, +1%).

Compared to 2019, Departure/Arrival traffic on Wednesday 10 February for the top 8 States was: Turkey (-47%), Norway (-48%), France (-60%), the Netherlands (-69%), Spain (-73%), Germany (-75%), Italy (-78%) and the UK (-82%). The situation in Belgium is due to a National General Strike on 13 February 2019.

1 excluding overflights.

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States in EUROCONTROL Network(compared with equivalent days in 2019)

Daily Variation (IFR Dep/Arr Flights) - Wed 10 Feb 2021


News from States and industry:

The Irish Strategic Investment Fund released details of its investments, including a 3 year €150 million loan to Aer Lingus and a €40 million loan to the Dublin Airport Authority.

Market Segments:

After the blip over Christmas2 break, and at the end of the first week in February: o All-cargo, is the only segment consistently growing, posting a +13% increase at the (vs 2019).

See for more analysis on cargo traffic in the final section. o Charter and Business Aviation have stabilised, respectively, -7% and -30% (vs 2019). o Traditional and Low-Cost, while accounting the majority of flights (respectively 49% and 26%

of all flights in 2020), remain severely depressed. Recent days showed they are down to -72% and -87% respectively (vs 2019). The reinstated travel restrictions across Europe from late January forced the airlines to reduce their capacities to a minimum level of service.

2 All segments show an artificial blip on 23 Dec 2020 as comparable day was Christmas day in 2019.


2. Traffic Flows & Country Pairs

The main traffic flow is the intra-Europe flow with 6,439 flights on Wednesday 10 February, which is increasing (+2%) over 2 weeks.

The top traffic flows with Europe were with “Middle-East” (485 flights, -2%) followed by “Asia/Pacific” (428 flights, +16%), “North-Atlantic” (405 flights, +12%), “Other Europe” (266 flights, +16%) and “North-Africa” (253 flights, -4%).

Intra-Europe flights are at -68% compared to 2019 while intercontinental flows are at -55%.

REGION 27-01-2021 10-02-2021 % vs. 2019

Intra-Europe 6.290 6.439 +2% -68%

EuropeAsia/Pacific 368 428 +16% -39%

EuropeMid-Atlantic 80 77 -4% -53%

EuropeMiddle-East 496 485 -2% -59%

EuropeNorth Atlantic 361 405 +12% -50%

EuropeNorth-Africa 263 253 -4% -67%

EuropeOther Europe 229 266 +16% -61%

EuropeSouth-Atlantic 63 54 -14% -68%

EuropeSouthern Africa 166 172 +4% -42%

Non Intra-Europe 2.026 2.140 +6% -55%

-68%

-50%

-53%

-68%

-42%

-59%

-39%

-61%

-67%

Traffic evolution between worldwide Regions10-02-2021 vs. 13-02-2019

ECAC = 44 European States


Domestic flows are the most active flows (i.e. 9 of the top 10 flows are domestic). The highest domestic flows were within France (735 flights, +10% over 2 weeks), Norway (629, -4%), Turkey (526, +6%), Spain (436, -4%), Germany (295, +24%), UK (294, +16%), Italy (249, -8%), Greece (165, +11%) and Sweden (141, -2%). The biggest decreases over 2 weeks were recorded for Italy (-8%) and Spain (-4%). The highest increases were for Germany (+24%) and UK (+16%), Greece (+11%), France (+10%) and Turkey (+4%).

The busiest non-domestic flows were UK-US (92 flights), Germany-US (80 flights), France-Germany (79 flights) and Germany-Spain (69 flights).

Compared to 2019, the largest domestic flows on Wednesday 3 February were at -40% for France, -30% for Norway, -44% for Turkey, -60% for Spain, -70% for the UK, -75% for Germany, -64% for Italy and -25% for Greece.

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Top 40 Country-Pairs ( Dep/Arr flights).Traffic on Wed 10-02-2021 and evolution compared to Wed 27-01-2021

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Top 40 Country-Pairs ( Dep/Arr flights).Traffic on Wed 10-02-2021 and evolution compared to Wed 13-02-2019


3. Situation outside Europe

United-States (A4A members): o Peak in COVID-19 cases was reached early January in the US but declined steadily since

(number of new cases). US domestic and International traffic recorded (each) -45% (vs 2019) on 9 February, stable on previous week.

o On 9 February, U.S. airlines passenger volumes were 66% below 2019 levels with Domestic down 65% and International down 75%.

o The domestic U.S. Load Factor averaged 48% in most recent week, versus 77% a year earlier. o US airlines3 have recorded US$ 36.3B losses over the first nine months of 2020 (vs same period

2019).

China: o Chinese domestic flights, after the rapid decline from mid-January, have recorded a recent

blip to just below 7,000 flights on 8 Feb (-41% compared to 1 Jan 2019).

The resurgence of the virus rise led to the implementation of a series of containment measures. The start of the Chunyun4 Festival (28Jan-8Mar), usually synonymous with travel rush, explains the blip.

However, Chinese government has recently been encouraging people to stay where they work instead of going back to their hometowns for the holiday.

International flights have been stable since March although slightly decreasing with 1,241 flights (-69% compared to 1 Jan 2019). The same is true for overflights with 488 flights (-69% compared to 1 Jan 2019).

3 A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United on a consolida ted company basis for system wide operations. 4 Ahead of the Lunar New Year (12 February).


Middle East:

o Intra-Middle-East traffic stabilised around 1,500 daily flights, recording 1,455 flights on 8 February (-48% compared to Feb 2019). International traffic is at 1,302 flights (-57% compared to Feb 2019). Overflights are recording 366 flights (-14% compared to Feb 2019).

News for worldwide airlines:

Air Canada making further reductions in services until at least April; temporarily reducing its unionised workforce by 1,500.

Delta Air Lines extending middle seat blocking until the end of April. Singapore Airlines reports, for the 9 months to December 2020, an operating loss of US$2.2B and

net loss of US$3.6B; it increased its liquidity to US$12.7B, in part as a result of a rights issue in June of US$8.8B; reports reaching agreement with Boeing and Airbus to revise its aircraft delivery schedule.


4. Airport Information

İGA Istanbul Airport was the busiest airport on Wednesday 10 February with 494 Dep/Arr flights (+5% over 2 weeks) followed by Paris CDG (442, +1%), Amsterdam (386, -1%), Frankfurt (373, +1%), Madrid (351, -6%), Istanbul/Sabiha (336, +5%), London/Heathrow (279, +4%), Cologne/Bonn (208, +5%), Oslo (185, -10%) and Bergen (183, +4%).

Most of the 10 top airports showed an increase over 2 weeks like İGA Istanbul Airport (+5%), Istanbul/Sabiha (+5%), Cologne (+5%) and London/Heathrow (+4%). Only Olso (-10%) and Madrid (-6%) showed a decrease.

Compared to 2019, Paris CDG operated at -63% on Wednesday 3 February, Madrid (-69%), Amsterdam (-71%), Frankfurt (-71%), Oslo (-73%) and London Heathrow (-78%). [*Please note: İGA Istanbul Airport was not in operation in January 2019 and therefore the comparison will be meaningless until mid-April. Concerning Brussels Airport, there was only 21 flights on 13 February 2019 due to a National General Strike].

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Airports in EUROCONTROL Network(compared with equivalent days in 2019)

Daily Variation (IFR Dep/Arr Flights) - Wed 10 Feb 2021


News from European and worldwide airports:

Ankara Airport reports passenger numbers down 70.3% y-o-y in January (international -84.6%, domestic -67.4%).

Antalya Airport reports passenger numbers down 68.5% y-o-y in January (international -73.1%, domestic -65.1%).

Cape Town Airport passenger numbers down 57.4% in December and down 63.5% for 2020. Johannesburg Airport passenger numbers down 59.5% in December and down 68.4% for 2020.

Manchester Airport reports passenger numbers down 92.8% y-o-y in January (scheduled international -93.1%, domestic -88.4%, charter -96.1%).

Oslo Airport reports passenger numbers down 85.2% y-o-y in January (international -92.5%, domestic -76.4%).

Schiphol Group launching a project (with KLM) to develop a commercial plant for the production of synthetic aviation fuel.

Stockholm Arlanda Airport reports passenger numbers down 86.4% y-o-y in January (international -87.5%, domestic -82.1%)

Tel Aviv Airport reports passenger numbers down 60.6% in 2020 (domestic -55.2%, international -81.5%) and 94.4% down in January.

5. Other facts and factors:

Cargo-in-pax: with the COVID-19 outbreak, aircraft operators have been using their passenger5 aircraft fleet to supplement the continued cargo operations (“Passenger Cargo” below). This extra share increased approximately up to more than 7% in May 2020, remained around 1-2% during Q3 2020 and increased up to 3% at the end 2020. Early February 2021, passenger cargo flights share has stabilised around 2.5%.

5 These “passenger cargo” flights have been detected from field 18 of the flight plans where aircraft operator stipulated “CARGO” explicitly.


Vaccination: inoculations against COVID-19 have started at the end of 2020 as shown with the daily number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people graph below. Except for Israel and UK, most of the States reported fewer than 10% of people have received even one dose.

Notes: rolling seven-day average shown for EUROCONTROL Member States. This is counted as a single dose, and may not equal the total number of people vaccinated, depending on the specific dose regime (e.g. people receive multiple doses).

Ticket prices: Since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, airlines tended to compensate for the strong decline in travel demand and offered steep discounts during the summer resulting in ticket prices6 in Europe to decrease by 10.2% in December 2020 (compared with the same period in 2019). These were well below the trend (12-month trailing average) which stands at -5% at the end of 2020.

6 Explanatory note

https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2019-11/explanation-im-deflateds.pdf


Fuel Price: Jet fuel prices have recorded a recent increase early February 2021, reaching 152 cts/gal on 5 February.

To further assist you in your analysis, EUROCONTROL provides the following additional information on a

daily basis (daily updates at approximately 7:00 CET for the first item and 12:00 CET for the second) and

every Friday for the last item:

1. EUROCONTROL Daily Traffic Variation dashboard: www.eurocontrol.int/Economics/DailyTrafficVariation (or via the COVID-19 button on the top of our homepage www.eurocontrol.int)

This dashboard provides traffic for Day+1 for all European States; for the largest airports; for each Area Control Centre (ACC); and for the largest airline operators.

2. COVID Related-NOTAMS with Network Impact (i.e. summary of airspace restrictions): https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html

The Network Operations Portal (NOP) under “Latest News” is updated daily with a summary table of the most significant COVID-19 NOTAMs applicable at 12.00 UTC.

3. NOP Recovery Plan: https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html

This report, updated every Friday, is a special version of the Network operation Plan supporting aviation response to the COVID-19 Crisis. It is developed in cooperation with the operational stakeholders ensuring a rolling outlook.
http://www.eurocontrol.int/Economics/DailyTrafficVariationhttp://www.eurocontrol.int/https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.htmlhttps://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html

COVID 19 Impact on European Aviation...COVID 19 Impact on European Aviation HEADLINES: 8,994 flights...

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