COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2 days ago · New Mexico COVID -19 Cases by Date of...
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling Update September 15, 2020
Transcript of COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2 days ago · New Mexico COVID -19 Cases by Date of...
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateSeptember 15, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico has the 37th highest number of cases per 100,000 population in the United States
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
3.2 2.5 2.2
14.0
4.5 4.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
COVID-19 prevalence per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.13.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
*Excludes cases among inmates in state and federal corrections and detention centers
Year-to-Date New cases (Last 7 days) – September 7-13
3490.4
546.9867.6
1377.21059.0
1210.1
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.15.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
100
200
300
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500
600
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – September 15, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective has remained at 0.9.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – September 15, 2020.
0.9
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 1.0 ↑
MetroR_effective 0.8 ↑
Southeast R_effective 1.0 ↑
SouthwestR_effective 0.9 ↓
NorthwestR_effective 0.7 ↓
Low Level Endemic <1.0
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.0-1.05
Requiring further mitigation >1.05
Key
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – September 15, 2020.
As of September 8, 2020
Region R-effective 95% Confidence Interval
State 0.9 [0.4, 1.7]
Metro 0.8 [0.0, 2.5]
Northeast 1.0 [0.0, 4.0]
Northwest 0.7 [0.0, 2.3]
Southeast 1.0 [0.0, 2.0]
Southwest 0.9 [0.0, 2.6]
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
All regions have decreasing case counts relative to the past 14 day period.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – September 15, 2020.
↓ Decreasing case counts
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.15.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
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Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average September 15, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.15.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
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Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageSeptember 15, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
“Detention Centers” refer to federal and New Mexico Corrections Department facilities.Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.15.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
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Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageSeptember 15, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.15.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageSeptember 15, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
50
100
150
200
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0
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150
200
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Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageSeptember 15, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
“Detention Centers” refer to federal and New Mexico Corrections Department facilities.Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.15.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The highest percentage of cases has occurred in patients 35-64 years old followed by 18-34 years old in all five regions.
As of September 15, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Except for the Northwest region, Hispanic or Latino individuals make up the largest proportion of cases.
As of September 15, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
For cases reporting activities, travel and visits to restaurants and breweries have begun to increase.
As of September 15, 2020
Note: Cases in correctional facilities and residents of long-term care facilities were excluded. Percentages are out of cases who were contacted and asked about their exposures.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of September 13, 2020
Since about mid-August, the number of hospitalizations has been below 100 cases.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The highest percentage of hospitalizations has occurred in patients 35-64 years old followed by 65 years and over across all regions.
As of September 13, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of September 13, 2020
Except for the NW Region, Hispanic or Latinos make up the highest percentage of hospitalizations
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The SE Region made up the highest percentage of hospital admissions last week. The SW region hospital admissions may be beginning to increase.
As of September 13, 2020
Hospitalizations may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of September 13, 2020
2
9
19
33
43
67 67
61
46 46
35 34 33
2124 25 26
5153
31 3027
22
12
6
0
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Num
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f Dea
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COVID-19 Deaths by Week of Death, New Mexico
Deaths may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Minimal changes in case fatality rates across regions
Note: Age-adjusted case fatality rates are adjusted to the current distribution of U.S. COVID-19 cases on 8/2. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#demographicsSource: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 9.13.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
6.2%
2.1%
3.4%
1.5%
3.0%
4.1%
3.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Case
Fat
ality
Rat
e (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, daily case counts continue to decline.
• Hospitalizations: After a period of recent decline in July, hospitalizations have remained steady.
• Deaths: Deaths are declining.
• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 1.2 days.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 9.15.2020
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=0.9
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 3.4
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.1% ICU 0.07%Vent Rate 54% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 3.4%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days
