COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2nd QUARTER 2018 - Coface
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UNITED STATES MEXICO ALGERIA ICELAND CCO MALI TUNISIA COSTA RICA PANAMA REPUBLIC HAITI CUBA GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA HONDURAS JAMAICA GUINEA SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA GHANA MAURITIUS ILE DE LA RÉUNION GROENLAND (DENMARK) BURKINA FASO SENEGAL CABO VERDE ITALY SPAIN PORTUGAL FRANCE GERMANY SWITZERLAND CANADA IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM BELGIUM BELIZE BRAZIL ARGENTINA PERU BOLIVIA VENEZUELA ECUADOR KENYA DR CONGO SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO ANGOLA NAMIBIA ZAMBIA MOZAMBIQUE COLOMBIA FRENCH GUYANA DOMINICAN GUYANA SURINAME BURUNDI UGANDA MALAWI ZIMBABWE BOTSWANA PARAGUAY CHILE URUGUAY TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO LIBYA EGYPT SUDAN MADAGASCAR NIGER CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC ETHIOPIA TANZANIA MAURITANIA GABON NIGERIA CHAD IVORY COAST TOGO SAO TOME & PRINCIPE RWANDA ERITREA CAMEROON BENIN CONGO SAUDI ARABIA PAKISTAN OMAN YEMEN IRAQ IRAN DJIBOUTI KUWAIT UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AFGHANISTAN KAZAKHSTAN INDIA TURKEY BANGLADESH ISRAEL JORDAN SYRIA LEBANON CYPRUS NEPAL KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN GEORGIA ARMENIA BAHRAIN QATAR UZBEKISTAN AZERBAIJAN HUNGARY POLAND ROMANIA BULGARIA BOSNIA GREECE AUSTRIA SLOVENIA CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAKIA NORWAY SWEDEN FINLAND UKRAINE LITHUANIA LATVIA ESTONIA BELARUS CHINA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES MORO SRI LANKA MYANMAR VIETNAM CAMBODIA LAOS MALAYSIA TAIWAN MALDIVES HONG KONG SINGAPORE THAILAND RUSSIA AUSTRALIA MONGOLIA JAPAN PAPUA NEW GUINEA NEW ZEALAND SOUTH KOREA GUINEA-BISSAU SERBIA MALTA PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES NORTH KOREA EQUATORIAL GUINEA TIMOR-LESTE SOUTH SUDAN MOLDOVIA COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2 nd QUARTER 2018 160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY • Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk • Comprehension of the business environment • Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience GERMANY FRANCE ITALY SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM FINLAND SWEDEN DENMARK PORTUGAL ICELAND IRELAND LITHUANIA LATVIA ROMANIA POLAND UKRAINE BULGARIA HUNGARY SLOVAKIA CZECH REPUBLIC GREECE ALBANIA MONTENEGRO BOSNIA CROATIA SERBIA LUXEMBOURG ESTONIA BELARUS MALTA MOLDOVA BELGIUM NORWAY SLOVENIA MACEDONIA SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA NETHERLANDS BUSINESS DEFAULTING RISK EXTREME E A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D VERY LOW LOW SATISFACTORY REASONABLE FAIRLY HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH UPGRADES DOWNGRADES B B A4 A3 C C C B OMAN MALAYSIA C ARGENTINA INDIA B ITALY A4 SRI LANKA • The recent increase in oil prices is expected to improve fiscal balances, as well as growth performance in 2018 (up to 2.5%) & 2019 (3.2%); • Oman’s fiscal breakeven point fell to USD 77 in 2018. • The strong economic momentum seen in 2017 is set to continue in 2018; • New administration is focusing on anti-corruption measures, boosting inflows, and strengthening the currency. • The recent deterioration of financial conditions in emerging markets forced a faster tightening of macro policies. Argentina’s peso is the world’s worst-performing currency (-33% year-to-date); • Activity should be impacted by large twin deficits, sticky inflation, high interest rates and greater budgetary restrictions. • The current account deficit is likely to worsen (to -1.8% in FY 2018), due to the growing trade deficit; •The government deficit (-3.5% in Q1) is expected to widen to 4%, provoked by higher government spending ahead of general elections in 2019. • Despite recent political turmoil, economic momentum seems to remain positive for the time being; • Business confidence has started to weaken. • Particularly low growth results in 2017; • The strong depreciation of the rupee since the beginning of 2018 has increased the country’s burden of external debt servicing and has put the foreign reserves under pressure; • Rise of ethnical tensions and declaration of a state of emergency. C A3 TURKEY C • The sharp depreciation of the lira since the start of 2018 will hit the private sector’s balance sheets and payment terms, and will give rise to higher financing costs; • Higher import costs will mostly affect agri-food, metals, chemicals, automotive, textile and paper sectors.
Transcript of COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2nd QUARTER 2018 - Coface
UNITED STATES
MEXICO
ALGERIA
ICELAND
CCO
MALI
TUNISIA
COSTA RICA
PANAMA
REPUBLIC
HAITI
CUBA
GUATEMALAEL SALVADOR
NICARAGUA
HONDURAS
JAMAICA
GUINEA
SIERRA LEONE
LIBERIA GHANA
MAURITIUS
ILE DE LA RÉUNION
GROENLAND(DENMARK)
BURKINAFASO
SENEGALCABO VERDE
ITALY
SPAINPORTUGAL
FRANCE
GERMANY
SWITZERLAND
CANADAIRELAND
UNITED KINGDOM
BELGIUM
BELIZE
BRAZIL
ARGENTINA
PERU
BOLIVIA
VENEZUELA
ECUADOR
KENYA
DR CONGO
SOUTH AFRICA
LESOTHO
ANGOLA
NAMIBIA
ZAMBIA
MOZAMBIQUE
COLOMBIAFRENCHGUYANA
DOMINICAN
GUYANASURINAME
BURUNDI
UGANDA
MALAWI
ZIMBABWE
BOTSWANAPARAGUAY
CHILE
URUGUAY
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
LIBYAEGYPT
SUDAN
MADAGASCAR
NIGER
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
ETHIOPIA
TANZANIA
MAURITANIA
GABON
NIGERIA
CHAD
IVORYCOAST
TOGO
SAO TOME& PRINCIPE
RWANDA
ERITREA
CAMEROON
BENIN
CONGO
SAUDIARABIA
PAKISTAN
OMAN
YEMEN
IRAQIRAN
DJIBOUTI
KUWAIT
UNITEDARABEMIRATES
AFGHANISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
INDIA
TURKEY
BANGLADESH
ISRAEL
JORDAN
SYRIALEBANON
CYPRUS
NEPAL
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
BAHRAINQATAR
UZBEKISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
HUNGARY
POLAND
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
BOSNIA
GREECE
AUSTRIA
SLOVENIA
CZECHREPUBLIC
SLOVAKIA
NORWAY
SWEDEN
FINLAND
UKRAINE
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
BELARUS
CHINA
INDONESIA
PHILIPPINES
MORO
SRI LANKA
MYANMAR
VIETNAMCAMBODIA
LAOS
MALAYSIA
TAIWAN
MALDIVES
HONG KONG
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
RUSSIA
AUSTRALIA
MONGOLIA
JAPAN
PAPUANEW GUINEA
NEW ZEALAND
SOUTH KOREA
GUINEA-BISSAU
SERBIA
MALTA
PALESTINIANTERRITORIES
NORTH KOREA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
TIMOR-LESTE
SOUTHSUDAN
MOLDOVIA
COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2nd QUARTER 2018
160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASSA UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience
TURKEY
GERMANY
FRANCE
ITALY
SPAIN
UNITED KINGDOM
FINLAND
SWEDEN
DENMARK
PORTUGAL
ICELAND
IRELAND
RUSSIA
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ROMANIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
BULGARIA
HUNGARY
SLOVAKIA
CZECHREPUBLIC
GREECE
ALBANIA
MONTENEGRO
BOSNIA
CROATIA
SERBIA
LUXEMBOURG
ESTONIA
BELARUS
MALTA
CYPRUS
MOLDOVA
BELGIUM
NORWAY
SLOVENIA
MACEDONIA
SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA
NETHERLANDS
BUSINESS DEFAULTING RISK
EXTREME
EA1 A2 A3 A4 B C DVERY LOW LOW SATISFACTORY REASONABLE FAIRLY HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH
UPGRADES DOWNGRADES
BB
A4
A3
C
C
C
BOMANMALAYSIA CARGENTINA INDIA B ITALY A4 SRI LANKA
• The recent increase in oil prices is expected to improve fiscal balances, as well as growth performance in 2018 (up to 2.5%) & 2019 (3.2%);• Oman’s fiscal breakeven point fell to USD 77 in 2018.
• The strong economic momentum seen in 2017 is set to continue in 2018;
• New administration is focusing on anti-corruption measures, boosting inflows, and strengthening the currency.
• The recent deterioration of financial conditions in emerging markets forced a faster tightening of macro policies. Argentina’s peso is the world’s worst-performing currency (-33% year-to-date);
• Activity should be impacted by large twin deficits, sticky inflation, high interest rates and greater budgetary restrictions.
• The current account deficit is likely to worsen (to -1.8% in FY 2018), due to the growing trade deficit;
•The government deficit (-3.5% in Q1) is expected to widen to 4%, provoked by higher government spending ahead of general elections in 2019.
• Despite recent political turmoil, economic momentum seems to remain positive for the time being;• Business confidence has started to weaken.
• Particularly low growth results in 2017;
• The strong depreciation of the rupee since the beginning of 2018 has increased the country’s burden of external debt servicing and has put the foreign reserves under pressure;
• Rise of ethnical tensions and declaration of a state of emergency.
CA3 TURKEY C
• The sharp depreciation of the lira since the start of 2018 will hit the private sector’s balance sheets and payment terms, and will give rise to higher financing costs;• Higher import costs will mostly affect agri-food, metals, chemicals, automotive, textile and paper sectors.
