Cotton: World Markets and Trade - Cornell University · 44,544 Brazil -100 . 8,800 . 8,900 ....

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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

Census Cotton Export Data Continues To Exceed Export Sales Shipments

U.S. cotton exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau have exceeded shipments data from USDA’s Export Sales Reporting (ESR) for the first half of the 2019/20 marketing year, repeating the historical trend for each of the past 6 years. USDA has historically used ESR data as the basis for its end-of-year exports estimate; however, end-of-year adjustments to the U.S. balance sheet in September 2019 changed this approach. With this adjustment, USDA averaged ESR and U.S. Census Bureau exports to compute the final export estimate for both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 marketing years; Census exports exceeded ESR by more than 5 percent for each of the respective marketing years. The change in USDA methodology reflects a growing and significant divergence between both export data sources. For the first 6 months of 2019/20, Census data exceeded ESR by more than 600,000 bales (eleven percent). U.S. 2019/20 exports are forecast at their highest level in 14 years, driven by the highest projected global imports in 7 years and robust U.S. exportable supplies. A larger forecast may imply an even larger discrepancy than the previous year between ESR and Census, which exceeded 1 million bales. Exports to Vietnam have witnessed the highest discrepancy to date for 2019/20 at more than 200,000 bales, with the top three U.S. markets (according to ESR data) all differing by more than 100,000 bales. USDA utilizes various data sources to estimate production, imports, consumption, exports, and ending stocks for the U.S. balance sheet. Using ESR export data as the basis for both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 marketing years would have indicated an unprecedented loss (or residual). This led to the conclusion that exports would be more accurately estimated using both sources of export data when considering the accuracy of data driving other components of the balance sheet. Please see page 2 of FAS’s September

-400

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0

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1,000

1,500

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Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.

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Census Data Outpaces ESR in January and Februrary

ESR Census Cummulative Difference

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service March 2020

Cotton: World Markets and Trade

https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new

2019 report here for more information regarding USDA’s methodology. Also, see (for the same respective month and year) the Economic Research Service’s report here for additional reference, specifically when referring to USDA’s formulation of ending stocks (see page 8 and 9). With regard to justifying the discrepancy between both export data sources, lower reported ESR exports may be due to the following: exporters failing to report sales, an unclear understanding of reporting procedures, unregistered exporters in the ESR database, and/or incorrect submissions and human error. USDA plans to continue monitoring the discrepancy when forecasting and ultimately assessing final 2019/20 exports. Major Differences in Top Markets

480 Lb. Bales

ESR Census Census -

ESR %

Difference

Vietnam 1,379 1,589 211 15.3% Pakistan 722 874 152 21.0% China 649 791 142 21.9% Turkey 470 498 28 5.9% Bangladesh 452 485 33 7.2% Indonesia 422 450 28 6.6% Mexico 364 358 -6 -1.6% India 366 393 27 7.3% ROW 1,019 1,099 80 7.8% TOTAL 5,843 6,536 693 11.9%

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 March 2020Global Market Analysis

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/kp78gg36g/9593v728f/b5645497n/cotton.pdf

https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/94934/cws-19i.pdf?v=8282

Overview For 2019/20, the February forecast shows higher production and beginning stocks. Production is raised for Brazil, Chad, and Tajikistan. Consumption is lowered due to weaker demand in China. Global trade is up slightly with higher imports by Turkey coupled with higher exports from Chad. The U.S. forecast this month shows lower production and ending stocks and the U.S. season-average farm price is lowered 2 cents to 60 cents per pound. For current prices received by farmers click here; NASS farm price Prices

The A-index and U.S. spot price have continued their downward momentum from last month and are 11 cents lower compared with this time last year. Concerns over the COVID-19 outbreak have depressed demand and slowed global business activity, while the U.S.-China trade situation continues to restrain market sentiment. For more information on U.S. spot price click here; AMS Cotton Market News

Mar-20, 71.8

Mar-20, 57.8

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110

Apr-17

May-17

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Feb-18

Mar-18

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Jul-18

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Nov-18

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Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

Jun-19

Jul-19

Aug-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Nov-19

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

cent

s/lb

.

Monthly Average Cotton Prices

A-Index U.S. Spot Price


https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/c821gj76b?locale=en

http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/cotton

Omeara, Richard - FAS, Washington, DC

What’s behind that?

Morgan, Jenny - FAS, Washington, DC

Provide link

Omeara, Richard - FAS, Washington, DC

Prices have been dropping since June 2018. Why?

2019/20 TRADE OUTLOOK Major Importers: Change Mar. 2020 Feb. 2020 Justification

WORLD 25 43,573 44,548

China -250 8,250 8,500 Lower consumption

Turkey 200 4,300 4,100 Higher textile demand

Major Exporters:

WORLD 225 43,599 44,544

Brazil -100 8,800 8,900 Decreasing demand in China

Chad 100 200 100 Larger crop

Note: 1,000 Bales (480-lbs)

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.


FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7 Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/ Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops National Agricultural Statistics Service:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Questions may be directed to: James Johnson (202) 690-1546 ([email protected]) Graham Soley (202) 772-4235 ([email protected])


https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Bangladesh

20010001000300000 2018/19

2001000100010002000 2019/20

Brazil

400000-1000300050 2019/20

Chad

12500011002350120 2019/20

China

750-1,0000-1,0000-250000 2019/20

Colombia

200000200 2018/19

000000-223 2019/20

Indonesia

0-500-500-50000 2019/20

Japan

020020020000 2019/20

Kazakhstan

10000001008 2019/20

Kyrgyzstan

500000500 2019/20

Peru

000000001 2017/18

-71501500800 2018/19

-10000030-33-7-7 2019/20

South Africa

-400000-40-2 2018/19

-54000-300-80-4-15 2019/20

Spain

-25000250000 2019/20

Tajikistan

7550550013000 2019/20

Thailand


Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

0-250-250-25000 2019/20

Turkey

10010001000200000 2019/20

Uganda

0000000032 2017/18

000000007 2018/19

0000000014 2019/20

United States

-300-2-2000-30200 2019/20

Uzbekistan

00000000-40 2019/20

World

World

0000000033 2017/18

19111501150300605 2018/19

1,276-852-2-8505525263191133 2019/20


Table 01 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 MT)

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Feb

2019/20

Mar

2019/20

Production none

5,639 India 5,879 6,314 5,617 6,423 6,423

4,790 China 4,953 5,987 6,042 5,933 5,933

2,806 United States 3,738 4,555 3,999 4,377 4,311

1,289 Brazil 1,528 2,007 2,830 2,765 2,830

1,524 Pakistan 1,676 1,785 1,655 1,437 1,437

827 Uzbekistan 811 840 713 762 762

577 Turkey 697 871 806 740 740

3,485 Other 3,943 4,589 4,162 3,979 4,037

20,937 Total 23,226 26,950 25,824 26,417 26,474

USE Dom. Consumption none

7,838 China 8,382 8,927 8,600 8,165 7,947

5,389 India 5,302 5,258 5,225 5,334 5,334

2,243 Pakistan 2,243 2,373 2,330 2,351 2,351

1,372 Bangladesh 1,481 1,633 1,611 1,589 1,611

1,459 Turkey 1,426 1,622 1,502 1,568 1,589

980 Vietnam 1,176 1,437 1,524 1,481 1,481

675 Brazil 697 740 740 740 740

4,699 Other 4,589 4,738 4,660 4,684 4,673

24,654 Total 25,295 26,728 26,193 25,912 25,727

Imports none

959 China 1,096 1,243 2,099 1,851 1,796

1,388 Bangladesh 1,481 1,655 1,568 1,568 1,589

1,002 Vietnam 1,197 1,524 1,502 1,481 1,481

918 Turkey 801 876 762 893 936

718 Pakistan 533 740 621 914 914

640 Indonesia 738 766 664 664 653

233 India 596 365 392 501 501

1,858 Other 1,766 1,792 1,647 1,611 1,616

7,717 Total 8,208 8,962 9,254 9,482 9,487

Exports none

1,993 United States 3,248 3,544 3,214 3,592 3,592

939 Brazil 607 909 1,310 1,938 1,916

1,255 India 991 1,128 764 784 784

209 Greece 221 234 295 327 327

142 Benin 174 218 305 305 305

616 Australia 812 852 791 283 283

218 Mali 239 283 294 283 283

2,184 Other 1,948 1,870 2,029 1,969 2,003

7,555 Total 8,241 9,039 9,003 9,481 9,493

Ending Stocks none

12,345 China 9,998 8,272 7,766 7,347 7,510

1,243 Brazil 1,509 1,885 2,668 2,761 2,848

1,534 India 1,716 2,009 2,028 2,833 2,833

827 United States 599 914 1,056 1,176 1,110

569 Pakistan 504 616 543 516 516

330 Bangladesh 355 404 388 351 395

334 Turkey 333 387 347 336 358

2,446 Other 2,468 3,113 2,660 2,559 2,586

19,628 Total 17,481 17,600 17,457 17,880 18,158


Table 02 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 Bales)

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Feb

2019/20

Mar

2019/20

Production none

5,920 Brazil 7,020 9,220 13,000 12,700 13,000

22,000 China 22,750 27,500 27,750 27,250 27,250

25,900 India 27,000 29,000 25,800 29,500 29,500

7,000 Pakistan 7,700 8,200 7,600 6,600 6,600

2,650 Turkey 3,200 4,000 3,700 3,400 3,400

12,888 United States 17,170 20,923 18,367 20,102 19,800

3,800 Uzbekistan 3,725 3,860 3,275 3,500 3,500

16,005 Other 18,112 21,076 19,117 18,277 18,542

96,163 Total 106,677 123,779 118,609 121,329 121,592

USE Dom. Consumption none

6,300 Bangladesh 6,800 7,500 7,400 7,300 7,400

3,100 Brazil 3,200 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400

36,000 China 38,500 41,000 39,500 37,500 36,500

24,750 India 24,350 24,150 24,000 24,500 24,500

3,000 Indonesia 3,300 3,500 3,150 3,050 3,000

10,300 Pakistan 10,300 10,900 10,700 10,800 10,800

6,700 Turkey 6,550 7,450 6,900 7,200 7,300

3,450 United States 3,250 3,225 2,975 3,000 3,000

1,800 Uzbekistan 2,000 2,500 2,800 3,300 3,300

4,500 Vietnam 5,400 6,600 7,000 6,800 6,800

13,332 Other 12,527 12,536 12,479 12,163 12,163

113,232 Total 116,177 122,761 120,304 119,013 118,163

Imports none

6,375 Bangladesh 6,800 7,600 7,200 7,200 7,300

4,406 China 5,032 5,710 9,640 8,500 8,250

1,072 India 2,736 1,677 1,800 2,300 2,300

2,941 Indonesia 3,391 3,517 3,051 3,050 3,000

443 Malaysia 392 739 744 1,000 1,000

975 Mexico 1,000 925 850 800 800

3,300 Pakistan 2,450 3,400 2,850 4,200 4,200

1,275 Thailand 1,226 1,149 1,075 975 950

4,218 Turkey 3,679 4,024 3,499 4,100 4,300

4,600 Vietnam 5,500 7,000 6,900 6,800 6,800

5,839 Other 5,491 5,419 4,894 4,623 4,673

35,444 Total 37,697 41,160 42,503 43,548 43,573

Exports none

2,828 Australia 3,731 3,915 3,632 1,300 1,300

650 Benin 800 1,000 1,400 1,400 1,400

4,314 Brazil 2,789 4,174 6,018 8,900 8,800

1,080 Burkina 1,155 1,225 940 900 900

550 Cameroon 500 400 575 600 600

780 Cote d'Ivoire 625 620 895 1,000 1,000

959 Greece 1,017 1,076 1,355 1,500 1,500

5,764 India 4,550 5,182 3,511 3,600 3,600

1,000 Mali 1,100 1,300 1,350 1,300 1,300

9,153 United States 14,917 16,279 14,763 16,500 16,500

7,623 Other 6,668 6,343 6,909 6,544 6,699

34,701 Total 37,852 41,514 41,348 43,544 43,599

Ending Stocks none

1,515 Bangladesh 1,630 1,855 1,783 1,613 1,813

5,709 Brazil 6,929 8,657 12,256 12,681 13,081

56,698 China 45,919 37,993 35,670 33,745 34,495

7,044 India 7,880 9,225 9,314 13,014 13,014

2,615 Pakistan 2,315 2,830 2,495 2,370 2,370

1,533 Turkey 1,528 1,777 1,594 1,544 1,644

3,800 United States 2,750 4,200 4,850 5,400 5,100

11,235 Other 11,337 14,298 12,216 11,753 11,879

90,149 Total 80,288 80,835 80,178 82,120 83,396


Table 04 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Mar 2017/18 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)

Change in Production

2017/18

Prel.

2018/19 Feb Feb

Prel.

2018/19 Mar

Prel.

2018/19 Feb Mar Percent

2019/20 Proj.2019/20 Proj. 2019/20 Proj.

2017/18

33.76World 2.512.980.220.26121.5933.48 34.48 34.61 798 771 766 765 123.78 118.61 121.33

4.49United States 7.801.43-1.50-0.3019.804.13 4.78 4.78 1,014 968 916 902 20.92 18.37 20.10

29.26Total Foreign 1.551.550.560.57101.7929.35 29.70 29.84 765 744 742 743 102.86 100.24 101.23

none

Western Hemisphere

1.18 Brazil 0.000.002.360.3013.001.64 1.65 1.70 1,708 1,726 1,676 1,665 9.22 13.00 12.70

0.21 Mexico -9.51-0.170.000.001.570.24 0.23 0.23 1,617 1,555 1,519 1,519 1.56 1.74 1.57

0.32 Argentina -10.71-0.120.000.001.000.38 0.36 0.36 558 642 605 605 0.82 1.12 1.00

0.01 Paraguay 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 416 416 416 416 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 Peru -49.02-0.05-38.82-0.030.050.02 0.02 0.01 1,048 1,169 1,028 1,029 0.08 0.10 0.09

0.01 Colombia 9.680.01-2.860.000.070.01 0.02 0.02 968 1,350 1,016 823 0.04 0.06 0.07

Africa

0.85 Burkina 17.650.150.000.001.000.63 0.58 0.58 307 294 379 379 1.20 0.85 1.00

0.71 Mali 6.300.080.000.001.350.73 0.74 0.74 432 381 400 400 1.40 1.27 1.35

0.33 Cote d'Ivoire 6.720.060.000.001.000.39 0.43 0.43 536 520 512 512 0.81 0.94 1.00

0.23 Cameroon 7.500.050.000.000.650.25 0.26 0.26 484 523 540 540 0.50 0.60 0.65

0.53 Benin 3.570.050.000.001.450.65 0.68 0.68 468 469 468 468 1.14 1.40 1.45

0.12 Chad 712.500.29261.110.240.330.06 0.13 0.25 181 145 151 283 0.10 0.04 0.09

0.16 Togo 3.920.010.000.000.270.18 0.19 0.19 299 308 312 312 0.22 0.26 0.27

0.02 Senegal -13.790.000.000.000.030.02 0.02 0.02 359 301 320 320 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.09 Egypt -30.00-0.150.000.000.350.14 0.10 0.10 718 772 762 762 0.30 0.50 0.35

0.20 Zimbabwe -5.00-0.010.000.000.190.20 0.20 0.20 294 218 207 207 0.27 0.20 0.19

0.27 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.240.27 0.27 0.27 190 190 190 190 0.24 0.24 0.24

Asia Oceania

3.40 China -1.80-0.500.000.0027.253.50 3.45 3.45 1,761 1,726 1,720 1,720 27.50 27.75 27.25

12.60 India 14.343.700.000.0029.5012.60 13.00 13.00 501 446 494 494 29.00 25.80 29.50

2.70 Pakistan -13.16-1.000.000.006.602.30 2.50 2.50 661 719 575 575 8.20 7.60 6.60

0.13 Kazakhstan 7.250.032.780.010.370.13 0.12 0.13 523 587 670 644 0.30 0.35 0.36

0.19 Tajikistan 37.350.1629.550.130.570.18 0.18 0.18 671 502 532 689 0.57 0.42 0.44

0.55 Turkmenistan 9.890.090.000.001.000.55 0.55 0.55 535 364 399 399 1.34 0.91 1.00

1.25 Uzbekistan 6.870.230.000.003.501.10 1.05 1.01 672 648 726 754 3.86 3.28 3.50

0.47 Turkey -8.11-0.300.000.003.400.52 0.56 0.56 1,853 1,549 1,322 1,322 4.00 3.70 3.40

0.53 Australia -69.32-1.530.000.000.680.38 0.06 0.06 1,972 1,261 2,449 2,449 4.80 2.20 0.68

0.03 Syria 0.000.000.000.000.140.03 0.03 0.03 1,161 1,219 1,219 1,219 0.16 0.14 0.14

0.25 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.700.24 0.24 0.24 634 635 635 635 0.73 0.70 0.70

Europe

0.23 Greece 17.020.240.000.001.650.25 0.28 0.28 1,157 1,253 1,283 1,283 1.22 1.41 1.65

1.71Others 6.870.25-1.89-0.083.891.77 1.84 1.84 412 448 468 460 3.24 3.64 3.97

Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation.


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 35030826536 Afghanistan 17

0 001211 Albania 1

30 00303500 Algeria 5

10 00152252 Angola 7

15 50005501,5311,000360 Argentina 481

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 1,3000352,24767560 Australia 912

15 00151800 Austria 3

0 350080511450140 Azerbaijan 81

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

7,300 0107,4009,22314045 Bangladesh 1,813

40 00404600 Belarus 6

30 100203600 Belgium-Luxembour 6

0 1,4000151,6781,450675 Benin 263

2 00101484 Bolivia 4

25 8,80003,40025,28113,0001,700 Brazil 13,081

25 003542102 Bulgaria 7

0 9000251,1401,000575 Burkina 215

75 50775994700240 Burma 214

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 600020789645260 Cameroon 169

2 002200 Canada 0

0 3200443232 Central African Republic 12

0 200010386325250 Chad 176

0 000000 Chile 0

8,250 175036,50071,17027,2503,450 China 34,495

65 501301646818 Colombia 29

2 0017211530 Congo (Kinshasa) 4

42 00455711 Costa Rica 12

0 1,0000251,2921,000425 Cote d'Ivoire 267

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0

7 007900 Czech Republic 2

0 000000 Denmark 0


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

1 004534 Dominican Republic 1

60 00708693 Ecuador 16

500 250106301,104350100 Egypt 214

180 0018022411 El Salvador 44

15 00151800 Estonia 3

40 10029536025080 Ethiopia 55

40 50354800 France 8

90 1008010600 Germany 16

0 20010392816 Ghana 9

30 1,50025901,7451,650280 Greece 130

150 0015018732 Guatemala 37

0 1400171412 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

26 00303542 Honduras 5

5 500800 Hong Kong 3

3 300300 Hungary 0

2,300 3,600024,50041,11429,50013,000 India 13,014

3,000 503,0003,53533 Indonesia 530

300 0057572027580 Iran 145

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 400456435 Israel 12

160 5015518100 Italy 21

250 0025028400 Japan 34

0 300065513370125 Kazakhstan 148

15 0040582530 Kenya 18

95 001502055519 Korea, North 55

600 15062576100 Korea, South 121

0 1100012511518 Kyrgyzstan 15

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

90 009011500 Lesotho 25

0 000000 Lithuania 0

5 005600 Macedonia 1

0 10020453020 Madagascar 15


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 75051499080 Malawi 69

1,000 45003751,54600 Malaysia 721

0 1,3000251,8211,350735 Mali 496

120 0012014100 Mauritius 21

800 425251,9503,1351,570225 Mexico 735

70 00658200 Moldova 17

35 00354311 Morocco 8

0 10005186115125 Mozambique 81

15 00151700 Netherlands 2

0 90112104 Nicaragua 2

0 6031495 Niger 5

10 300200314235270 Nigeria 84

4,200 1002510,80013,2956,6002,500 Pakistan 2,370

0 000000 Panama 0

8 15014362111 Paraguay 7

250 503003825211 Peru 77

65 00657821 Philippines 13

17 00172000 Poland 3

170 0017021100 Portugal 41

1 001200 Romania 1

100 0011012900 Russia 19

0 2500302517 Senegal 5

8 0081000 Serbia 2

3 500600 Singapore 1

1 001100 Slovakia 0

8 0081000 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

50 13009040113530 South Africa 181

15 30002035830065 Spain 38

5 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 500075739600200 Sudan 164

0 000000 Sweden 0

2 002300 Switzerland 1

0 5006516414025 Syria 49

525 6053066900 Taiwan 133


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 425075876570180 Tajikistan 376

0 2500175750500450 Tanzania 325

950 0259501,12921 Thailand 154

0 250015342265185 Togo 77

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

4,300 35007,3009,2943,400560 Turkey 1,644

0 25008251,6291,000545 Turkmenistan 554

0 15001529317089 Uganda 128

5 005600 Ukraine 1

2 002300 United Kingdom 1

5 16,500553,00024,65519,8004,777 United States 5,100

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 30003,3004,6583,5001,010 Uzbekistan 1,058

15 00901208515 Venezuela 30

6,800 006,8007,99131 Vietnam 1,191

0 3025342818 Yemen 6

0 20005448210130 Zambia 243

0 1751030349190200 Zimbabwe 134

World

43,573 43,599185118,163245,343121,59234,612 World 83,396


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 807181436 Afghanistan 4

0 000001 Albania 0

7 007800 Algeria 1

2 003512 Angola 2

3 1090120333218360 Argentina 105

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 2830848914760 Australia 199

3 003400 Austria 1

0 7601711198140 Azerbaijan 18

9 0091000 Bahrain 2

1,589 021,6112,0083045 Bangladesh 395

9 0091000 Belarus 1


0 30503365316675 Benin 57

0 002324 Bolivia 1

5 1,91607405,5042,8301,700 Brazil 2,848

5 008922 Bulgaria 2

0 19605248218575 Burkina 47

16 10169216152240 Burma 47

0 000000 Cambodia 0

0 13104172140260 Cameroon 37

0 000000 Canada 0


0 44028471250 Chad 38

0 000000 Chile 0

1,796 3807,94715,4965,9333,450 China 7,510

14 1028361518 Colombia 6


9 00101201 Costa Rica 3

0 21805281218425 Cote d'Ivoire 58

0 000000 Croatia 0

2 003314 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country


13 00151923 Ecuador 3

109 54213724076100 Egypt 47

39 00394901 El Salvador 10

3 003400 Estonia 1

9 2064785480 Ethiopia 12

9 1081000 France 2

20 20172300 Germany 3

0 4028616 Ghana 2

7 327520380359280 Greece 28

33 00334112 Guatemala 8

0 3004312 Guinea 1

1 002217 Haiti 0

6 007812 Honduras 1


1 100100 Hungary 0

501 78405,3348,9526,42313,000 India 2,833

653 1065377013 Indonesia 115

65 001251576080 Iran 32

8 001116310 Iraq 5

0 000000 Ireland 0

0 9011295 Israel 3

35 10343900 Italy 5

54 00546200 Japan 7

0 6501411281125 Kazakhstan 32

3 00913530 Kenya 4

21 0033451219 Korea, North 12

131 3013616600 Korea, South 26

0 2400272518 Kyrgyzstan 3

2 001200 Latvia 0

1 001100 Lebanon 0

20 00202500 Lesotho 5



0 20410720 Madagascar 3


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 1601322080 Malawi 15

218 9808233700 Malaysia 157

0 28305396294735 Mali 108

26 00263100 Mauritius 5

174 935425683342225 Mexico 160

15 00141800 Moldova 4

8 008901 Morocco 2

0 22014025125 Mozambique 18



0 101325 Niger 1

2 70446851270 Nigeria 18

914 2252,3512,8951,4372,500 Pakistan 516

0 000000 Panama 0

2 3038511 Paraguay 2

54 1065831111 Peru 17


4 004400 Poland 1

37 00374600 Portugal 9

0 000000 Romania 0

22 00242800 Russia 4

0 5007517 Senegal 1

2 002200 Serbia 0


0 000000 Slovakia 0

2 002200 Slovenia 0

1 0022212 Somalia 0

11 28020872930 South Africa 39

3 6504786565 Spain 8

1 002315 Sri Lanka 0

0 109016161131200 Sudan 36

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 11014363025 Syria 11

114 1011514600 Taiwan 29


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 93016191124180 Tajikistan 82

0 54038163109450 Tanzania 71

207 0520724601 Thailand 34

0 54037458185 Togo 17

4 007822 Tunisia 1

936 7601,5892,024740560 Turkey 358

0 540180355218545 Turkmenistan 121

0 3303643789 Uganda 28

1 001100 Ukraine 0


1 3,592126535,3684,3114,777 United States 1,110

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 6507181,0147621,010 Uzbekistan 230

3 0020261915 Venezuela 7

1,481 001,4811,74011 Vietnam 259

0 1057618 Yemen 1

0 44019846130 Zambia 53

0 38277641200 Zimbabwe 29

World

9,487 9,4934025,72753,41826,47434,612 World 18,158


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 35030826536 Afghanistan 17

0 001211 Albania 1

30 00303500 Algeria 5

10 00152252 Angola 7

5 54505751,6361,120380 Argentina 516

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 3,6320355,2392,200380 Australia 1,572

15 10141800 Austria 3

0 384075520390130 Azerbaijan 61

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

7,200 0107,4009,19313844 Bangladesh 1,783

42 00404600 Belarus 6


0 1,4000151,6431,400650 Benin 228

2 00101484 Bolivia 4

17 6,01803,40021,67413,0001,640 Brazil 12,256

25 003643102 Bulgaria 7

0 9400251,105850630 Burkina 140

75 50775999700240 Burma 219

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 575020739600250 Cameroon 144

2 002200 Canada 0


0 1000101714060 Chad 61

0 000000 Chile 0

9,640 213039,50075,38327,7503,500 China 35,670

84 051451816210 Colombia 31


45 00455911 Costa Rica 14

0 8950251,212937392 Cote d'Ivoire 292

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country


60 00708793 Ecuador 17

520 350106001,214500141 Egypt 254

177 0017021311 El Salvador 43

14 00131600 Estonia 3

30 8027535324377 Ethiopia 70

36 20374700 France 8

86 1308010900 Germany 16

0 15010362816 Ghana 11

31 1,35525901,5351,410245 Greece 65

148 0014517932 Guatemala 34

0 1400171412 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

25 00293442 Honduras 5


3 300300 Hungary 0

1,800 3,511024,00036,82525,80012,600 India 9,314

3,051 603,1503,68833 Indonesia 532

300 0057572027580 Iran 145

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 450460425 Israel 11

159 5015518100 Italy 21

230 0023526900 Japan 34

0 275065483345128 Kazakhstan 143

15 0040582530 Kenya 18

95 001502055519 Korea, North 55

781 7080096800 Korea, South 161

0 1000011010518 Kyrgyzstan 10

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

85 008511000 Lesotho 25



0 10020453020 Madagascar 15


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 70051349070 Malawi 59

744 31303501,20900 Malaysia 546

0 1,3500251,8461,270725 Mali 471

120 0012014100 Mauritius 21

850 500251,9503,2401,735243 Mexico 765

60 00607200 Moldova 12

29 00354211 Morocco 7

0 10005176106125 Mozambique 71



0 6031495 Niger 5

10 300200299235270 Nigeria 69

2,850 602510,70013,2807,6002,300 Pakistan 2,495

0 000000 Panama 0

2 11014322111 Paraguay 7

214 2031539710219 Peru 80


16 10162000 Poland 3

174 4017021500 Portugal 41

1 001200 Romania 1

150 2016019100 Russia 29

0 2502322921 Senegal 5

8 0081000 Serbia 2


1 001100 Slovakia 0

7 007900 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

68 13808944321842 South Africa 216

10 32202038530065 Spain 43

3 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 425075639500180 Sudan 139

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 9006517914025 Syria 24

592 0060074400 Taiwan 144


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 350055711415180 Tajikistan 306

0 2000175625375420 Tanzania 250

1,075 1251,0751,27821 Thailand 177

0 225015317255180 Togo 77

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

3,499 48206,9008,9763,700520 Turkey 1,594

0 15008001,579910545 Turkmenistan 629

0 12501526316181 Uganda 123

3 003400 Ukraine 1


3 14,763-182,97522,57018,3674,130 United States 4,850

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 75002,8004,7083,2751,100 Uzbekistan 1,158

12 001001208515 Venezuela 20

6,900 007,0008,18831 Vietnam 1,188

0 2025332818 Yemen 6

0 15605399200125 Zambia 238

0 1751030374200200 Zimbabwe 159

World

42,503 41,348117120,304241,947118,60933,483 World 80,178


(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseImportsProductio

n

Country

0 48071436 Afghanistan

0 000001 Albania

7 100700 Algeria

2 200312 Angola

1 1121190125244380 Argentina

0 000000 Armenia

0 34279108479380 Australia

3 100300 Austria

0 138401685130 Azerbaijan

9 200900 Bahrain

1,568 388021,6113044 Bangladesh

9 100900 Belarus

7 120400 Belgium-Luxembour

0 5030503305650 Benin

0 100224 Bolivia

4 2,6681,31007402,8301,640 Brazil

5 200822 Bulgaria

0 3020505185630 Burkina

16 4810169152240 Burma

0 000000 Cambodia

0 3112504131250 Cameroon

0 000000 Canada

0 3700732 Central African Republic

0 132202960 Chad

0 000000 Chile

2,099 7,7664608,6006,0423,500 China

18 701321310 Colombia

0 1004330 Congo (Kinshasa)

10 3001001 Costa Rica

0 6419505204392 Cote d'Ivoire

0 000000 Croatia

2 000314 Cuba

0 000000 Cyprus

2 000200 Czech Republic

0 000000 Denmark


(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


n

Country

0 000114 Dominican Republic

13 4001523 Ecuador

113 55762131109141 Egypt

39 9003701 El Salvador

3 100300 Estonia

7 1520605377 Ethiopia

8 200800 France

19 3301700 Germany

0 2302616 Ghana

7 14295520307245 Greece

32 7003212 Guatemala

0 1300312 Guinea

1 000217 Haiti

5 100612 Honduras

2 110000 Hong Kong

1 010000 Hungary

392 2,02876405,2255,61712,600 India

664 1161068613 Indonesia

65 32001256080 Iran

8 50011310 Iraq

0 000000 Ireland

0 2100195 Israel

35 5103400 Italy

50 7005100 Japan

0 316001475128 Kazakhstan

3 4009530 Kenya

21 1200331219 Korea, North

170 352017400 Korea, South

0 222002318 Kyrgyzstan

2 000100 Latvia

1 000100 Lebanon

19 5001900 Lesotho

0 000000 Lithuania

1 000100 Macedonia

0 3204720 Madagascar


(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


n

Country

0 1315012070 Malawi

162 1196807600 Malaysia

0 10329405277725 Mali

26 5002600 Mauritius

185 1671095425378243 Mexico

13 3001300 Moldova

6 200801 Morocco

0 15220123125 Mozambique

3 000300 Netherlands

0 020024 Nicaragua

0 110125 Niger

2 15704451270 Nigeria

621 5431352,3301,6552,300 Pakistan

0 000000 Panama

0 2203511 Paraguay

47 1700692219 Peru

13 2001401 Philippines

3 100300 Poland

38 9103700 Portugal

0 000000 Romania

33 6003500 Russia

0 1500621 Senegal

2 000200 Serbia

0 100000 Singapore

0 000000 Slovakia

2 000200 Slovenia

1 0002212 Somalia

15 47300194742 South Africa

2 970046565 Spain

1 000215 Sri Lanka

0 3093016109180 Sudan

0 000000 Sweden

0 000000 Switzerland

0 5200143025 Syria

129 310013100 Taiwan


(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


n

Country

0 677601290180 Tajikistan

0 544403882420 Tanzania

234 390523401 Thailand

0 17490356180 Togo

4 100722 Tunisia

762 34710501,502806520 Turkey

0 137330174198545 Turkmenistan

0 2727033581 Uganda

1 000100 Ukraine

0 000000 United Kingdom

1 1,0563,214-46483,9994,130 United States

0 000000 Uruguay

0 25216306107131,100 Uzbekistan

3 400221915 Venezuela

1,502 259001,52411 Vietnam

0 1005618 Yemen

0 52340144125 Zambia

0 35382744200 Zimbabwe

World

9,254 17,4579,0032526,19325,82433,483 World


Table 09: World Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Beginning

Stocks

Area

Harvested

Production Imports Total

Supply

Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

World

3631,05785,88064285,23833,481150,41833,58284,22233,83132,614 1988/89

2924,98487,13923486,90531,357143,48032,70379,72031,69631,057 1989/90

3227,47385,69417085,52429,560142,72730,57887,16533,15324,984 1990/91

4336,97186,55636886,18828,204151,73129,02495,23434,75827,473 1991/92

4034,51086,4006386,33725,435146,34527,06782,30732,64336,971 1992/93

3327,83385,70314385,56026,620140,15627,96777,67930,71834,510 1993/94

3832,02084,292-33084,62228,118144,43030,30086,29732,25027,833 1994/95

4740,13585,396-54485,94027,396152,92727,00493,90335,92032,020 1995/96

5144,63987,351-58587,93626,777158,76728,57990,05333,74040,135 1996/97

5749,47386,686-58187,26726,777162,93625,92992,36833,79744,639 1997/98

6252,85883,651-1,11484,76523,517160,02624,48086,07332,88549,473 1998/99

5651,14490,490-60291,09227,126168,76027,99387,90932,35052,858 1999/00

5449,56290,724-1,42492,14826,156166,44226,20989,08932,01151,144 2000/01

5854,68093,601-78194,38229,081177,36229,29798,50333,71749,562 2001/02

4947,88297,608-80498,41230,400175,89030,18891,02230,77954,680 2002/03

4948,37697,179-90998,08833,152178,70734,15096,67532,25847,882 2003/04

5660,977107,960-1,245109,20534,949203,88633,965121,54535,75948,376 2004/05

5361,906115,178-1,793116,97144,922222,00644,668116,36134,49460,977 2005/06

5162,987122,493-1,715124,20837,416222,89638,305122,68534,70561,906 2006/07

5061,878121,743-2,094123,83738,868222,48939,453120,04932,87862,987 2007/08

5661,453108,860-1,436110,29630,207200,52030,573108,06930,62261,878 2008/09

3946,179119,482-12119,49435,804201,46536,928103,08430,18761,453 2009/10

4349,288115,611119115,49234,875199,77436,297117,29833,82646,179 2010/11

6972,055103,906-210104,11645,994221,95545,423127,24436,05649,288 2011/12

8389,336107,900-343108,24346,350243,58647,630123,90134,31672,055 2012/13

9199,904109,99892109,90640,997250,89941,204120,35932,85589,336 2013/14

95106,739112,499268112,23135,948255,18636,065119,21733,86599,904 2014/15

8090,149113,496264113,23234,701238,34635,44496,16330,752106,739 2015/16

6980,288116,383206116,17737,852234,52337,697106,67729,81190,149 2016/17

6680,835122,878117122,76141,514245,22741,160123,77933,75580,288 2017/18

6780,178120,421117120,30441,348241,94742,503118,60933,48380,835 2018/19

7183,396118,348185118,16343,599245,34343,573121,59234,61280,178 2019/20


Table 10: United States Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

United States

517,0921657,7826,14821,187515,4115,7716944,835 1988/89

183,000-1638,7597,69419,290212,1967,0926883,860 1989/90

142,344-2858,6577,79318,509415,5053,0007114,748 1990/91

233,70489,6136,64619,9711317,6142,3447315,245 1991/92

304,662-19010,2505,20119,923116,2183,7047854,501 1992/93

203,530-810,4186,86220,802616,1344,6626795,173 1993/94

132,650-3811,1989,40223,2122019,6623,5307945,391 1994/95

142,6092710,6477,67520,95840817,9002,6506026,478 1995/96

223,971-811,1266,86521,95440318,9422,6097915,216 1996/97

213,8874111,3497,50022,7771318,7933,9717545,425 1997/98

273,939-39410,4014,29818,24443913,9183,8877014,324 1998/99

233,91514510,1946,75021,0049716,9683,9396805,433 1999/00

386,000-4838,8626,74021,1191617,1883,9157085,282 2000/01

407,4481807,69611,00026,3242120,3036,0007905,596 2001/02

285,3851667,27311,90024,7246717,2097,4487465,025 2002/03

173,4502116,26613,75823,6854518,2555,3858184,858 2003/04

265,4951086,69114,43626,7302923,2513,4509585,284 2004/05

266,069-2005,87117,67329,4132823,8905,4959315,586 2005/06

539,4793034,93512,95927,6761921,5886,0699125,152 2006/07

5510,0514294,58413,63428,6981219,2079,4799854,245 2007/08

386,337-2633,54113,26122,876012,82510,0519123,063 2008/09

192,947-143,55012,03718,520012,1836,3378703,049 2009/10

142,6001823,90014,37621,058918,1022,9479104,330 2010/11

223,350-1723,30011,71418,1921915,5732,6008863,829 2011/12

233,8003483,50013,02620,6741017,3143,3509993,772 2012/13

172,3502923,55010,53016,7221312,9093,8009213,051 2013/14

253,6502103,57511,24618,6811216,3192,3509393,785 2014/15

303,8001683,4509,15316,5713312,8883,6508593,268 2015/16

152,750603,25014,91720,977717,1703,8009723,848 2016/17

224,200-283,22516,27923,676320,9232,7501,0144,492 2017/18

274,850-182,97514,76322,570318,3674,2009684,130 2018/19

265,100553,00016,50024,655519,8004,8509024,777 2019/20


Table 11: Foreign Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Total Foreign

23,96547777,45627,333129,23133,57768,81126,84351728,996 1988/89

21,98439778,14623,663124,19032,70167,52423,96552827,836 1989/90

25,12945576,86721,767124,21830,57471,66021,98454928,405 1990/91

33,26736076,57521,558131,76029,01177,62025,12957329,513 1991/92

29,84825376,08720,234126,42227,06666,08933,26751128,142 1992/93

24,30315175,14219,758119,35427,96161,54529,84852525,545 1993/94

29,370-29273,42418,716121,21830,28066,63524,30354026,859 1994/95

37,526-57175,29319,721131,96926,59676,00329,37056229,442 1995/96

40,668-57776,81019,912136,81328,17671,11137,52654328,524 1996/97

45,586-62275,91819,277140,15925,91673,57540,66856528,372 1997/98

48,919-72074,36419,219141,78224,04172,15545,58655028,561 1998/99

47,229-74780,89820,376147,75627,89670,94148,91957426,917 1999/00

43,562-94183,28619,416145,32326,19371,90147,22958626,729 2000/01

47,232-96186,68618,081151,03829,27678,20043,56260528,121 2001/02

42,497-97091,13918,500151,16630,12173,81347,23262425,754 2002/03

44,926-1,12091,82219,394155,02234,10578,42042,49762327,400 2003/04

55,482-1,353102,51420,513177,15633,93698,29444,92670230,475 2004/05

55,837-1,593111,10027,249192,59344,64092,47155,48269628,908 2005/06

53,508-2,018119,27324,457195,22038,286101,09755,83774529,553 2006/07

51,827-2,523119,25325,234193,79139,441100,84253,50876728,633 2007/08

55,116-1,173106,75516,946177,64430,57395,24451,82775227,559 2008/09

43,2322115,94423,767182,94536,92890,90155,11672927,138 2009/10

46,688-63111,59220,499178,71636,28899,19643,23273229,496 2010/11

68,705-38100,81634,280203,76345,404111,67146,68875432,227 2011/12

85,536-691104,74333,324222,91247,620106,58768,70576030,544 2012/13

97,554-200106,35630,467234,17741,191107,45085,53678529,804 2013/14

103,08958108,65624,702236,50536,053102,89897,55474530,080 2014/15

86,34996109,78225,548221,77535,41183,275103,08966027,484 2015/16

77,538146112,92722,935213,54637,69089,50786,34975125,963 2016/17

76,635145119,53625,235221,55141,157102,85677,53876529,263 2017/18

75,328135117,32926,585219,37742,500100,24276,63574429,353 2018/19

78,296130115,16327,099220,68843,568101,79275,32874329,835 2019/20


Cotton: World Markets and Trade - Cornell University · 44,544 Brazil -100 . 8,800 . 8,900 ....

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