Corpus Christi Area - Texas A&M University€¦ · Note: limits are current and include the changes...

Local Price Trends

The Corpus Christi market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2017 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Leslie Rouda Smith.

Local NAR Leadership

Note: limits are current and include the changes made in December 2016.

$17,3007-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$47,600

Prices are up from a year ago, but price growth is slowing

Corpus Christi U.S.

$39,700

3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2017 Q1)6.9%

$54,900

20.8%3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing$275,665

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity$230,700$184,400

Corpus ChristiCurrent Median Home Price (2017 Q1)

$636,150Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio

$424,100

not comparable

$64,333

$636,150

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2017 Q1) 4.1%

Local Trend

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the

recession$32,167

43%

Conforming Loan Limit**

Corpus Christi AreaLocal Market Report, First Quarter 2017

Today's Market…

10.4%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2017Q1

Q32016Q1

Q32015Q1

Q32014Q1

Q32013Q1

Q32012Q1

Q32011Q1

Q32010Q1

Q32009Q1

Q32008Q1

Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth

Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation

Price Activity CorpusChristi U.S.$10,268 $18,582

Total Equity Gained** through 2017 Q1 from quarter in which home was of purchasedLocal Trend

$48,7433-year (12-quarter)* $25,212

Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity

growth since the recession

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity

$46,748$45,884If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $90,921

$65,779

$64,6475-year (20-quarter)* $83,9967-year (28 quarters)* $69,190 $76,553

1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)*

$10,268

$63,202

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2016 Q12014 Q12012 Q12010 Q12008 Q12006 Q12004 Q1

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase

Natural Resourc 12.0% 23.2 Natural R5.2%

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Manufacturing 4.5% 8.7 Manufac 8.4%

Trade/Transporta 17.8% 34.5 Trade/Tr 18.6%

Information 0.9% 1.8 Informa1.9%

Financial Activ 3.9% 7.5 Financia5.7%

Prof. & Busine 8.8% 17.1 Professi14.1%

Educ. & Healt 16.3% 31.6 Educatio15.8%

Leisure & Hos 13.5% 26.1 Leisure 11.0%Other Services 3.7% 7.2 Other S 3.9%

Government 18.4% 35.6 88.0% Governm15.4% 100.0%#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality

Service Providing Excluding Government

0

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Employment has held up and is on an upward trend

-200100

500

12-month change (2017 - Apr)

36-month change (2017 - Apr) 9.9%10.5%

3.1%

Not Comparable

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Corpus Christi Area (Mar - 2017)

100

600

U.S.Texas

NA Natural Resources and Mining Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

NA

Share of Total Employment by Industry

Information

Other Services

Government

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…

U.S.

State Economic Activity Index

Construction

700

4.4%

5.0%1.4%

Corpus Christi Area

Goods Producing

-300 Manufacturing

200

Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve

6.2%

5.5%

Current Unemployment Rate (Apr)

3.0%

Local Economic Outlook Corpus Christi U.S.

2,500

2,700

Not Comparable

Corpus Christi's unemployment situation is worse than the national average and weighs

on confidence

Not Comparable

2,600

36-month Job Change (Apr)

Texas's economy is stronger than the nation's, but slowed from last month's

3.15% change

12-month Job Change (Apr)

900

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Mar)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1.6%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

Natural Resources/Mining/Constru

ct12.0% Manufacturin

g4.5%

Trade/Transportation/Utilit

ies17.8%

Information0.9%

Financial Activities

3.9%

Prof. & Business Services

8.8%

Educ. & Health

Services16.3%

Leisure & Hospitality

13.5%

Other Services

3.7%

Government18.4%

Natural Resources/

Mining/Construct5.2%

Manufacturing

8.4%

Trade/Transportation/Uti

lities18.6%

Information1.9%Financial

Activities5.7%

Professional & Business

Services14.1%

Educational & Health Services15.8%


11.0%

Other Services

3.9%

Government15.4%

-14.8%

1,080 Production above trend for an extended

period of time could cause prices to moderate as inventory is built up.

U.S.New Housing Construction

Single-Family Housing Permits (Apr 2017) 12-month sum vs. a year ago 8.4%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Apr 2017 1,182

Corpus Christi

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

Local Fundamentals

The current level of construction is 9.4% above the long-term average

Construction continues to decline from last year

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income

Affordable compared to most marketsHistorical Average 1.5

U.S.

Historical Average More affordable than most markets19.2%10.3%

Affordability

9.4%

U.S.

Ratio for 2017 Q1

Ratio for 2016

Ratio for 2017 Q1Ratio for 2016

15.6%Historically strong and an improvement

over the fourth quarter of 201615.2%

2.8

Corpus Christi

Corpus Christi

Median Home Price to Income

8.9%

1.61.6

2.72.7

The price-to-income ratio eased, but could be better

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2016201420122010200820062004200220001998

Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2017 Q12016 Q42016 Q32016 Q22016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q2

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

The first quarter was marked by rising mortgage rates. Short- and long- term U.S. interest rates continued to increase after November’s elections. The Fed raised the federal fund in March, bringing the target from 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent while Freddie Mac published that the average interest rate on a 30-year conventional home loan was 4.2 percent in Q1 2017 from 3.8 percent in Q4 2016. Intermediate-term yields also increased during the quarter, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury closing at 2.4 percent. Although the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, its actions can affect the housing market. Mortgage rates tend to move with the government’s 10-year Treasury note, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates. However, homebuyers should bear in mind that mortgage rates still hover in the historically low range. Homebuyers have excellent purchasing power at these mortgage rates, and while it may make sense for fewer households to refinance, there are still some households that can save cash with a refinance. Looking ahead, despite the recent decline in April, interest rates are likely to head higher in 2017. NAR is forecasting the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to average 4.3 percent for 2017.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

2017 Q1Q32016 Q1Q32015 Q1Q32014 Q1Q32013 Q1Q32012 Q1

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield

Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2016201420122010200820062004200220001998

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

REALTOR® Price Expectations

Texas U.S.

2017 - Apr 3.8% 4.2% REALTORS® expect weaker price growth in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12

months although their local expectations are higher than a year ago.Prior 12 months 3.7% 3.8%


0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: NAR

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/bulletins_default/

Aransas County, Nueces County, and San Patricio County

The Corpus Christi area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Corpus Christi metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties:

Geographic Coverage for this Report

Local Price Trends

The Corpus Christi market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.


Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013

$29,800


$49,300

Prices continue to grow relative to last year

Corpus Christi U.S.

$32,267


$52,000

15.6%

3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*


Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing

$271,050

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity

$239,133$189,800

Corpus Christi

Current Median Home Price (2016 Q3)


$417,000

not comparable

$60,900

$625,500

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2016 Q3) 2.7%

Local Trend



recession$17,967

46%


Corpus Christi AreaLocal Market Report, Third Quarter 2016

Today's Market…

18.6%

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2016Q3

Q12015Q3

Q12014Q3

Q12013Q3

Q12012Q3

Q12011Q3

Q12010Q3

Q12009Q3

Q12008Q3

Q12007Q3



Price Activity CorpusChristi U.S.

$7,892 $15,479

Total Equity Gained** through 2016 Q3 from quarter in which home was of purchased

Local Trend

$41,9323-year (12-quarter)* $37,276




$34,098

$28,103If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $83,600

$66,358

$65,4585-year (20-quarter)* $82,243

7-year (28 quarters)* $66,865 $73,900

1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)*

$7,892

$64,590

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

2015 Q32013 Q32011 Q32009 Q32007 Q32005 Q32003 Q3



#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A



Information 1.0% 2 Informa1.9%





Government 17.1% 33.6 88.2% Governm15.5% 100.0%

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A



Educ. & Health Services



0



200

-800

1,200

12-month change (2016 - Sep)

36-month change (2016 - Sep)10.0%12.0%

2.6%

Not Comparable

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Corpus Christi Area (Sep - 2016)

200

400

U.S.Texas

NA

Natural Resources and Mining

Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

NA


Information

Other Services

Government


U.S.


Construction

-400

5.0%

5.1%

1.3%

Corpus Christi Area

Goods Producing

-100 Manufacturing

0


6.3%

5.3%

Current Unemployment Rate (Sep)

2.9%


6,600

2,500

Not Comparable


on confidence

Not Comparable

2,400

36-month Job Change (Sep)

The economy of Texas is growing more slowly than the rest of the nation, but improved modestly from last month's

2.52% change

12-month Job Change (Sep)

1,800

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Aug)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate

1.8%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate



g4.7%


ies18.2%

Information1.0%


4.4%


8.3%

Educ. & Health

Services16.1%


14.1%

Other Services

4.2%

Government17.1%

Natural Resources/


Manufacturing

8.4%


lities18.8%


Activities5.7%


Services14.1%



10.6%

Other Services

3.9%

Government15.5%

-13.5%



U.S.

New Housing Construction

Single-Family Housing Permits (Sep 2016) 12-month sum vs. a year ago

9.5%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Sep 2016

1,301

Corpus Christi

not comparable



Local Fundamentals



0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%



0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600




U.S.


Affordability

8.9%

U.S.

Ratio for 2016 Q3

Ratio for 2015

Ratio for 2016 Q3

Ratio for 2015

15.5%

Historically strong and an improvement over the second quarter of 2016

15.6%

2.8

Corpus Christi

Corpus Christi


8.9%

1.6

1.7

2.7

2.9


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2016 Q32016 Q22016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4


The third quarter of 2016 was marked by low mortgage rates. Presidential elections introduced uncertainty in the equity and bond markets which, as a rule, markets don’t like. Furthermore, forecasts for production and inflation remained low, helping to keep rates contained in a narrow band, hovering between 3.44% and 3.46% for the period between July and September. For the entire quarter, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased from 3.6 percent in the second quarter to 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016, while the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.65 percent. What to expect about mortgage rates in the upcoming quarters? It seems that mortgage rates will move up but they will not change significantly while China’s growth is still slow, Japan’s woes continue, and the Eurozone continues to stagger along. However, the Fed is coming closer to reaching its dual mandate which could in turn result in rate hikes in the near future. Furthermore, the President-Elect’s policies include increased infrastructure spending, tariffs, and immigration reform all of which could drive inflationary pressures over the longer term. NAR is forecasting the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to average just 4.1 percent for 2017.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2016 Q3Q12015 Q3Q12014 Q3Q12013 Q3Q12012 Q3Q12011 Q3



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997



Texas U.S.

2016 - Sep 3.1% 3.0%REALTORS® expect higher price growth

in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. However, their price expectations

for the local market are more modest than a year ago.Prior 12 months 3.8% 3.2%


0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%


Source: NAR

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/




Corpus Christi AreaLocal Market Report, Second Quarter 2016

Today's Market…

23.9%

Local Trend



recession$15,400

46%


U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity

$239,167$190,100

Corpus Christi

Current Median Home Price (2016 Q2)


$417,000

not comparable

$64,800

$625,500

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2016 Q2) 2.1%Prices are up from a year ago, but price

growth is slowing

Corpus Christi U.S.

$36,200


$56,700

17.8%



Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing

$271,050


$36,700


$54,100

Local Price Trends

The Corpus Christi market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.


$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2016Q2

Q42015Q2

Q42014Q2

Q42013Q2

Q42012Q2

Q42011Q2

Q42010Q2

Q42009Q2

Q42008Q2

Q42007Q2


$68,4045-year (20-quarter)* $82,353

7-year (28 quarters)* $71,351 $77,054

1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)* $71,030


Price Activity CorpusChristi U.S.

$6,974 $14,963


Local Trend

$46,8783-year (12-quarter)* $44,770




$31,126


$6,974

$67,251

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

2015 Q22013 Q22011 Q22009 Q22007 Q22005 Q22003 Q2



#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A








Government 16.9% 33.5 88.3% Governm14.5% 100.0%

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A



Educ. & Health Services



1,900

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (May)



7,100

3,500

Not Comparable


on confidence

Not Comparable

3,600

36-month Job Change (Jun)

Texas's economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 2.32% change

and lags the rest of the nation



U.S.


Construction

-500

4.9%

5.3%

1.8%

Corpus Christi Area

Goods Producing

-300 Manufacturing

400


6.0%

5.4%

Current Unemployment Rate (Jun)

3.0%


Not Comparable

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Corpus Christi Area (Jun - 2016)

100

400

U.S.Texas

NA

Natural Resources and Mining

Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

NA


Information

Other Services

Government

12-month change (2016 - Jun)

36-month change (2016 - Jun)10.2%12.2%

2.3%

200

300

1,100

Employment growth has eased, but remains positive

-100




g4.6%


ies18.3%

Information1.0%


4.4%


8.5%

Educ. & Health

Services15.9%


14.4%

Other Services

4.2%

Government16.9%

Natural Resources/


Manufacturing

8.6%


lities19.0%


Activities5.8%


Services14.1%



11.3%

Other Services

4.0%

Government14.5%




Local Fundamentals

10.6%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Jun 2016

1,347

Corpus Christi

not comparable


Single-Family Housing Permits (Jun 2016) 12-month sum vs. a year ago

-8.1%



U.S.

New Housing Construction

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%



0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600



Ratio for 2016 Q2

Ratio for 2015

15.8%

Historically strong, but weaker than the first quarter of 2016

15.6%

2.8

Corpus Christi

Corpus Christi


8.9%

1.6

1.7

2.7

2.9

The price-to-income ratio is high by historic standards and getting worse

Affordability

9.1%

U.S.

Ratio for 2016 Q2

Ratio for 2015



U.S.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2016 Q22016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q42014 Q3


The second quarter of 2016 has been quite tumultuous with the surprising “Brexit” vote in the United Kingdom. While British citizens voted to leave the European Union last June, the full impact of the vote could take several years to be seen. In the near future, low mortgage rates and stronger refinancing are expected in the U.S.. Meanwhile, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased from 3.7 percent in the 1st quarter of 2016 to 3.6 percent in the second quarter of 2016. Similarly, the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.75 percent which is the lowest rate after Q4 2012. As a result of the current market conditions, existing homeowners benefit from low rates by refinancing their mortgages while home affordability is increasing for first-time homebuyers. Rates are likely to remain unchanged as global economies remain weak. The uncertainty in China, Japan, Russia and Eurozone is expected to boost safe-haven buying which benefits mortgage-backed securities market. NAR is now forecasting fewer rate hikes by the FED in 2016 and as a result the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now expected to average just 4.3 percent for 2016.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2016 Q2Q42015 Q2Q42014 Q2Q42013 Q2Q42012 Q2Q42011 Q2



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997



Texas U.S.

2016 - Jul 3.9% 3.6%REALTORS® expect higher price growth

in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. However, their price expectations

for the local market are more modest than a year ago.Prior 12 months 4.3% 3.4%


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%


Source: NAR


Today's Market…

31.7%

Local Trend


Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after

the recession-$13,067

41%


U.S.

FHA Loan Limit




$417,000

not comparable

$5,333

$625,500


growth is slowing

Corpus Christi U.S.

$45,533


$36,100






$46,100

Local Price Trends

The Corpus Christi market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2015 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Bill Jones.


$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000

$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000$200,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2015Q1

Q32014Q1

Q32013Q1

Q32012Q1

Q32011Q1

Q32010Q1

Q32009Q1

Q32008Q1

Q32007Q1

Q32006Q1



1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)* $62,158




Local Trend

$53,5653-year (12-quarter)* $48,260Price appreciation and principle

payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the

recession


$100


$8,326

$58,130

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2014 Q12012 Q12010 Q12008 Q12006 Q12004 Q12002 Q1


Natural Resour 14.4% 28.5 Natural 5.0%

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Manufacturing 4.9% 9.7 Manufac8.7%

Trade/Transpo 18.1% 35.9 Trade/T 18.8%


Financial Act 4.3% 8.5 Financi5.7%

Prof. & Busin 7.7% 15.3 Profess13.9%

Educ. & Heal 15.3% 30.2 Educat 15.6%

Leisure & Ho 13.0% 25.8 Leisure10.6%Other Service 4.2% 8.3 Other S4.0%

Government 17.0% 33.7 85.6% Govern15.8% 100.0%#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services


Service Providing Excluding Government Other Services

Government

1,100

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Feb)



13,900

5,400

Not Comparable

Unemployment in Corpus Christi is better than the national average and

improving

Not Comparable

5,600


Texas's economy is stronger than the nation's, but slowed from last month's

4.55% change



U.S.


Construction

2,500

5.5%

6.6%2.8%

Corpus Christi Area

Goods Producing

-100 Manufacturing

1,000

Local employment growth is strong compared to other markets

4.6%

5.4%

Current Unemployment Rate (Mar)

3.4%


Not Comparable


300

-200

U.S.Texas


NA


12-month change (2015 - Mar)

36-month change (2015 - Mar)9.3%13.2%

4.3%

400-400

800


0


Natural Resources/Mining/Con

struct14.4%

Manufacturing

4.9%


lities18.1%

Information1.1%Financial Activities

4.3%


7.7%

Educ. & Health

Services15.3%


13.0%

Other Services

4.2%

Government

17.0%


struct5.0%

Manufacturing

8.7%

Trade/Transportation/

Utilities18.8%


Activities5.7%

Professional &

Business Services13.9%



10.6%

Other Services

4.0%

Government

15.8%

Construction is on the rise relative to last year, suggesting that the local

inventory has stabilized



Local Fundamentals

3.1%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Mar 2015 1,422

Corpus Christi

not comparable


Single-Family Housing Permits (Mar 2015) 12-month sum vs. a year ago 3.0%

1,022 Production above trend for an

extended period of time could cause prices to moderate as inventory is built


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%



0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000





over the fourth quarter of 201415.8%

2.7

Corpus Christi

Corpus Christi


8.8%

1.51.5

2.72.6


Affordability

8.3%

U.S.

Ratio for 2015 Q1

Ratio for 2014



U.S.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2014201220102008200620042002200019981996


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2015 Q12014 Q42014 Q32014 Q22014 Q12013 Q42013 Q32013 Q2


The headline measure of economic activity, GDP growth, swung from a soft 2.2% in the 4th quarter of 2014 to a dismal 0.2% in the 1st quarter of 2015 with some suggesting that the 1st quarter figure would be revised lower. Sharp declines in global fuel prices over the winter impacted the domestic oil industry, while a rapid rise in the value of the dollar impacted domestic manufacturers’ ability to export and increased competition from importers. As a result, employment in both industries slumped in the first quarter. Compounding these issues was weakness in single family housing starts and construction. Weather was partially to blame, but builder sentiment was weak reflecting a pullback in consumer confidence. While not a recession, this economic soft patch weighed on mortgage rates in the 1st quarter which saw the average 30-year fixed rate fall from 3.97% in the 4th quarter to 3.73% in the 1st quarter of 2015. Treasury rates fell by more and a result the spread between the two rose from 169 basis points to 176. Affordability surged on sub-4% mortgage rates that were augmented by a sharp 50 basis point cut to the FHA’s annual mortgage insurance premium. NAR Research forecasts the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage to climb to 4.3% by year end 2014 and to average 5.2% in 2016 as the Federal Reserve begins to raise short term rates in response to improving domestic and international economic conditions gain steam.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2015 Q1Q32014 Q1Q32013 Q1Q32012 Q1Q32011 Q1Q32010 Q1


Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2014201220102008200620042002200019981996


Texas U.S.

2015 - Mar 3.7% 3.5%REALTORS® expect higher price

growth in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. However, their price expectations for the local market are

more modest than a year ago.Prior 12 months 4.7% 3.5%


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%


Source: NAR



The Corpus Christi area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Corpus Christi metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the

following counties:


Corpus Christi AreaLocal Market Report, Second Quarter 2014

Today's Market…

27.7%




40%

Conforming Loan Limit** $625,500

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit




$417,000

not comparable

-$11,500

Local Trend






$45,700


growth is slowing

Corpus Christi U.S.

$43,600


$32,700

25.8%

Local Price Trends

The Corpus Christi market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2014 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is David McKey.


$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000

$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014Q2

Q42013Q2

Q42012Q2

Q42011Q2

Q42010Q2

Q42009Q2

Q42008Q2

Q42007Q2

Q42006Q2

Q42005Q2



1-year (4-quarter)



recession



9-year (36 quarters)* $62,406 $5,043




Local Trend

$17,893

$35,606

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2013 Q22011 Q22009 Q22007 Q22005 Q22003 Q22001 Q2



#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A




Financial Act 4.1% 8 Financi5.8%


Educ. & Heal 15.6% 30.2 Educat 15.2%


Government 17.0% 33 87.0% Govern14.9% 100.0%#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A




Government

300

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (May)



Not Comparable


improving

Not Comparable

4,400


The economy of Texas has outpaced the rest of the nation and improved modestly from last month's 4.41%

change


3.2%

5.3%

6.6%

Current Unemployment Rate (Jun)


14,200

4,100

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Corpus Christi Area (Jun - 2014)

300

-100

U.S.

U.S.


Construction

900

6.1%

7.5%2.2%

Corpus Christi Area

Goods Producing

0 Manufacturing

1,200

Local employment growth is strong compared to other markets


Not Comparable


12-month change (2014 - Jun)

36-month change (2014 - Jun)9.2%13.7%

4.7%

0200-300

1,600


Texas


NA



struct13.0% Manufacturi

ng5.1%

Trade/Transportation/U

tilities18.1%

Information1.1%


4.1%


8.0%

Educ. & Health

Services15.6%


13.8%

Other Services

4.2%

Government

17.0%


struct5.2%

Manufacturing

8.8%


Utilities19.1%


Activities5.8%

Professional &




11.1%

Other Services

4.0%

Government

14.9%





6.4%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Jun 2014 1,386

Corpus Christi

not comparable


Local Fundamentals

Single-Family Housing Permits (Jun 2014) 12-month sum vs. a year ago

Production above trend for an extended period of time could cause

prices to moderate as inventory is built


27.4%

1,051

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%



0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000





over the first quarter of 201414.9%

2.6

Corpus Christi

Corpus Christi


7.9%

Affordability

9.0%

U.S.

Ratio for 2014 Q2

Ratio for 2013

Historical Average

U.S.1.41.5

2.72.7

More affordable than most markets20.3%10.8%



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2014 Q22014 Q12013 Q42013 Q32013 Q22013 Q12012 Q42012 Q3


The Mortgage Market

Despite the continued wind-down of the Federal Reserve’s MBS and Treasury purchase program, mortgage rates remain low. The program was averaging $40 billion in purchases monthly of MBS issued by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as $45 billion in US Treasury bonds prior to the taper. The intent was to place downward pressure on the long-term borrowing costs. Rates were anticipated to rise as the Fed withdrew its support. However, GDP fell sharply in the 1st quarter, outpacing already weak expectations for the quarter. Furthermore, continued instability in Europe with the conflict in Ukraine heating up as well as volatility in the Israel, Syria, and Iraq, coupled with lingering questions about the veracity of the US economy have kept rates low. Rates averaged roughly 4.25% in the 2nd quarter of 2014. The Fed will continue to taper its new purchases of MBS through the late summer ending this portion of the program in October. The Fed will continue to reinvest the principle of MBS and Treasuries indefinitely, though, which is supportive of the market. Rates will likely be more volatile in response to economic news without the robust Fed purchase volume or nascent expansion of private demand for agency MBS. Eventually, a stronger economy, be it robust or modest in nature, will drive up rates over the long-term. NAR is forecasting an average 30-year fixed rate of 4.5% for 2014, but to be 4.8% in the 4th quarter of 2014 and to average 5.3% for 2015.

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2014 Q2Q42013 Q2Q42012 Q2Q42011 Q2Q42010 Q2Q42009 Q2



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995





following counties:


Local Price Trends





$50,600

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2014 Q1) 19.8%Prices continue to grow relative to last

year

Corpus Christi U.S.

$33,633


$36,700




U.S.

FHA Loan Limit




$417,000

not comparable

-$22,533

Local Trend




40%



Today's Market…

24.9%

$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000

$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014Q1

Q32013Q1

Q32012Q1

Q32011Q1

Q32010Q1

Q32009Q1

Q32008Q1

Q32007Q1

Q32006Q1

Q32005Q1





Local Trend



recession



9-year (36 quarters)* $66,346 $3,658


1-year (4-quarter)

$30,031

$41,355

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2013 Q12011 Q12009 Q12007 Q12005 Q12003 Q12001 Q1



#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A


Trade/Transpo 17.8% 34 Trade/T 18.8%




Educ. & Heal 15.6% 29.8 Educat 15.6%


Government 17.8% 34 86.8% Govern16.1% 100.0%#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A




Government


-100200-700

700


Texas


NA

12-month change (2014 - Mar)

36-month change (2014 - Mar)8.8%13.9%

4.4%


Not Comparable



200

100

U.S.

U.S.


Construction

1,400

6.7%

7.5%1.5%

Corpus Christi Area

Goods Producing

100 Manufacturing

1,200


5.1%

6.0%

Current Unemployment Rate (Mar)


15,100

2,900

Not Comparable


improving

Not Comparable

2,000


The economy of Texas has outpaced the rest of the nation and improved modestly from last month's 4.19%

change


2.9%

-200

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Feb)




struct13.2% Manufacturi

ng5.1%


tilities17.8%

Information1.0%Financial Activities

4.1%


8.0%

Educ. & Health

Services15.6%


13.1%

Other Services

4.1%

Government

17.8%


struct4.9%

Manufacturing

8.7%


Utilities18.8%


Activities5.7%

Professional &




10.5%

Other Services

4.0%

Government

16.1%

35.9%

1,066

Single-Family Housing Permits (Mar 2014) 12-month sum vs. a year ago




14.2%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Mar 2014 1,381

Corpus Christi

not comparable


Local Fundamentals





0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%



0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000



Historical Average

U.S.1.41.5

2.72.5




Affordability

9.1%

U.S.

Ratio for 2014 Q1

Ratio for 2013


14.8%Historically strong, but weaker than the

fourth quarter of 201314.9%

2.6

Corpus Christi

Corpus Christi


7.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2014 Q12013 Q42013 Q32013 Q22013 Q12012 Q42012 Q32012 Q2


The Federal Reserve continued to taper its support for the housing market in the first quarter of 2014 at a pace of $5b fewer GSE MBS and Treasuries purchased each month. Over the prior year the Fed had purchased roughly $45 billion a month of mortgage backed securities from the GSEs and Ginnie Mae as well as 10-year Treasury bonds. These purchased pushed up on MBS prices, which in turn pushed mortgage rates lower. While the taper had a modest initial upward lift on rates, negative economic news, including weak employment gains, a decline in home sales and instability in Europe, more than offset the upward drift. What's more, the Fed still remains the dominant player in the market for MBS as the total volume of MBS has fallen faster than the rate of Fed purchases due to the sharp drop in refinancing in recent quarters. As a result, mortgage rates remained stable in the first quarter. The Fed will continue to taper through the spring which will have a moderate impact on rates so long as the economy remains in low gear and investor demand for agency MBS re-emerges. Eventually, a stronger economy, be it robust or modest in nature, will reemerge and the Fed's purchases will decline to a level that truly reduces it support for the market so rates will rise later this year. NAR is forecasting an average 30-year fixed rate of 4.7% for 2014, but to be 5.1% in the 4th quarter.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2014 Q1Q32013 Q1Q32012 Q1Q32011 Q1Q32010 Q1Q32009 Q1



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995





following counties:


Local Price Trends



Local Trend



$38,300


growth is slowing

Corpus Christi U.S.

$27,133


$23,100




U.S.

FHA Loan Limit




$417,000

not comparable

-$22,400




37%


Corpus Christi AreaLocal Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2013

Today's Market…

13.3%

$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000

$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2013Q4

Q22012Q4

Q22011Q4

Q22010Q4

Q22009Q4

Q22008Q4

Q22007Q4

Q22006Q4

Q22005Q4

Q22004Q4





Local Trend

7-year (28 quarters)* $35,055 $9,428

1-year (4-quarter)



recession

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% down payment. Down payment is not included in total equity

$15,042If purchase in 2005, th enational price peak $35,926

9-year (36 quarters)* $53,824 $9,859

$27,5715-year (20-quarter)* $26,921

$10,485

$25,476

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

2012 Q42010 Q42008 Q42006 Q42004 Q42002 Q42000 Q4

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of PurŎhase


#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #Nt/A #N/A






Educ. & Heal 16.6% 32.3 Educat 15.6%

Leisure & Ho 12.1% 23.5 Leisure10.2%Other Service 4.1% 8 Other S4.0%

Government 17.3% 33.6 85.3% Govern16.0% 100.0%#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A




Government


-10000

800


Texas


NA

12-month change (2013 - Dec)

36-month change (2013 - Dec)8.9%11.7%

3.0%

18,700

6,800 Employment growth has eased, but remains positive

Not Comparable


12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Corpus Christi Area (Dec - 2013)

100

200

U.S.

U.S.


Construction

3,900

6.7%

7.9%3.6%

Corpus Christi Area

Goods Producing

-200 Manufacturing

800

Local employment growth is strong compared to other markets1.7%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

5.4%

5.7%

Current Unemployment Rate (Dec)


Not Comparable


improving

Not Comparable

6,800

36-month Job Change (Dec)

Texas' economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 3.15% change and lags the rest of the nation

12-month Job Change (Dec)

3.1%


1,300

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Nov)


struct14.7%

Manufacturing

5.0%


tilities17.5%

Information1.0%


4.0%


7.8%

Educ. & Health

Services16.6%


12.1%

Other Services

4.1%

Government

17.3%


struct4.7%

Manufacturing

8.8%


Utilities19.2%


Activities5.8%

Professional &




10.2%

Other Services

4.0%

Government

16.0%

34.3%

1,080

Single-Family Housing Permits (Dec 2013) 12-month sum vs. a year ago




20.2%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Dec 2013 1,338

Corpus Christi

not comparable


Local Fundamentals





0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%



0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000



Historical Average

U.S.1.41.4

2.72.5


The price-to-income ratio has fallen and is below the historical average


8.2%

U.S.

Ratio for 2013 Q4

Ratio for 2013


7.9%



over the third quarter of 2013

Affordability

14.9%

2.6

Corpus Christi

Corpus Christi

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2013 Q42013 Q32013 Q22013 Q12012 Q42012 Q32012 Q22012 Q1


Mortgages rates eased through the end of September and early October following Ben Bernanke’s announcement in late September that the Federal Reserve would not taper its purchases of mortgage backed securities and US Treasuries. The downward trend reached a low of 4.10% for the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage, but was briefly interrupted by the debt ceiling debate which pushed up modestly on rates in mid-October. However, following a spate of positive economic news releases in November including stronger than expected retails sales and a surprise jump in new employment as well as positive revisions to the measure for employment gains in September and October, the chairman of the Federal Reserve board voted to begin the taper in December. As a result, mortgage rates rose steadily in December and ended the year at 4.48%. The Fed has since continued its taper despite softening economic and employment data. The taper is likely priced in but the weak economic news is holding back higher rates. A stronger economy, be it robust or modest in nature, is inevitable so rates will rise later this year. NAR is forecasting an average 30-year fixed rate of 5.0% for 2014.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2013 Q4Q22012 Q4Q22011 Q4Q22010 Q4Q22009 Q4Q22008 Q4



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995





following counties:


Corpus Christi Area - Texas A&M University€¦ · Note: limits are current and include the changes...

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