Coronal Ejecta in October - November of 2003 and predictions of the associated geomagnetic events
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Coronal Ejecta in October - November of 2003 and Coronal Ejecta in October - November of 2003 and predictions of the associated geomagnetic events predictions of the associated geomagnetic events 1 1 Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, http://www.bbso.njit.edu/~ vayur 2 2 Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Riverside, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Riverside, http://www.igpp.ucr.edu http://www.igpp.ucr.edu We have found recently that the intensity of Bz in the IMF is correlated with the plane of sky speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) We have found recently that the intensity of Bz in the IMF is correlated with the plane of sky speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) 1,2 1,2 . In turn, the Bz in the IMF is correlated with the Dst index . In turn, the Bz in the IMF is correlated with the Dst index of geomagnetic activity of geomagnetic activity 2,3,4,5 2,3,4,5 . . Here we present results of prediction of the magnitude and the orientation of the Bz and the Dst index made for 3 halo CMEs erupted on October 28 (event I), October 29 (event II) and Here we present results of prediction of the magnitude and the orientation of the Bz and the Dst index made for 3 halo CMEs erupted on October 28 (event I), October 29 (event II) and November 18 (event III) of 2003. The comparison between the predicted values and the observed data shows that we were able to successfully predict the magnitude of 2 out of 3 geomagnetic November 18 (event III) of 2003. The comparison between the predicted values and the observed data shows that we were able to successfully predict the magnitude of 2 out of 3 geomagnetic events (events I and II), while we have underestimated the magnitude of the Dst index for the event III on November 18 2003. events (events I and II), while we have underestimated the magnitude of the Dst index for the event III on November 18 2003. Vasyl Yurchyshyn Vasyl Yurchyshyn Qiang Hu Qiang Hu Event I: Event I: The X17.2/4B flare started at 0951UT on Oct 28 2003 The X17.2/4B flare started at 0951UT on Oct 28 2003 and it was associated with a halo CME. The clock and it was associated with a halo CME. The clock angle (measured clockwise from the east) of the angle (measured clockwise from the east) of the post flare loops system, associated with this CME, post flare loops system, associated with this CME, was about 215 deg and the erupted field had was about 215 deg and the erupted field had negative helicity negative helicity . This suggests that the axial . This suggests that the axial field of the CME field of the CME may have a southward may have a southward Bz Bz component. component. The plane of sky speed of the CME was about The plane of sky speed of the CME was about 1500km/s. Based on this speed we predicted i) the 1500km/s. Based on this speed we predicted i) the magnitude of the Bz in IMF to be magnitude of the Bz in IMF to be -30 … -44 nT -30 … -44 nT and and ii) the decrease in the Dst index from the base ii) the decrease in the Dst index from the base value be value be –250…-320 nT –250…-320 nT (the blue box below). (the blue box below). Event II: Event II: The X11 flare at 2037UT on Oct 29 2003 produced The X11 flare at 2037UT on Oct 29 2003 produced another halo CME. The lack of the data on the day another halo CME. The lack of the data on the day of the eruption did not allow us to reliably of the eruption did not allow us to reliably determine a possible orientation of the axial field determine a possible orientation of the axial field and magnetic helicity. However, available data and magnetic helicity. However, available data seemed to suggest that the associated seemed to suggest that the associated interplanetary ejecta may have interplanetary ejecta may have negative helicity. negative helicity. The plane of sky speed of this CME was, too, about The plane of sky speed of this CME was, too, about 1500km/s. Based on this speed we predicted i) the 1500km/s. Based on this speed we predicted i) the Bz to be between Bz to be between –30 and -44 nT –30 and -44 nT and ii) the and ii) the magnitude of the decrease in the Dst index from its magnitude of the decrease in the Dst index from its base value to be base value to be –250 … -320 nT –250 … -320 nT (see the blue box). (see the blue box). Prediction Scheme: Prediction Scheme: I. The I. The magnitude of the Bz in IMF magnitude of the Bz in IMF is related to the plane of is related to the plane of sky speed of a halo CME: sky speed of a halo CME: Solid line is an exponential fit Solid line is an exponential fit Bz[nT]=12.3+0.7exp(V/404). Bz[nT]=12.3+0.7exp(V/404). (r.m.s=7nT) (r.m.s=7nT) Yurchyshyn et al. 2003, Adv. Space Res. 32, #10 Yurchyshyn et al. 2003, Adv. Space Res. 32, #10 Yurchyshyn et al. 2004, Space Weather, 2, S02001 Yurchyshyn et al. 2004, Space Weather, 2, S02001 Plane of sky speed of halo CMEs, km/s Plane of sky speed of halo CMEs, km/s Bz in the IMF at 1AU, nT Bz in the IMF at 1AU, nT Prediction Scheme: Prediction Scheme: II. In II. In turn, the Dst index of turn, the Dst index of geomagnetic activity can be geomagnetic activity can be estimated from the Bz estimated from the Bz component: component: Oct 28, 2003 CME; Event I Oct 28, 2003 CME; Event I Plane of sky speed of halo CMEs, km/s Plane of sky speed of halo CMEs, km/s Bz in the IMF at 1AU, nT Bz in the IMF at 1AU, nT prediction measurement prediction measurement Oct 29, 2003 CME; Event II Oct 29, 2003 CME; Event II Nov 18, 2003 CME; Event III Nov 18, 2003 CME; Event III Results of the Prediction Made Results of the Prediction Made for 3 halo CMEs in October – for 3 halo CMEs in October – November 2003: November 2003: Oct 28 Halo CME was earth directed Oct 28 Halo CME was earth directed and, as suggested by the ACE data, it and, as suggested by the ACE data, it was approximately oriented along the was approximately oriented along the NS line NS line Ejecta Time: 10/29 1117 UT – Ejecta Time: 10/29 1117 UT – 10/30 0349 UT 10/30 0349 UT Cone angle: 113 deg Cone angle: 113 deg Clock angle: 266 deg Clock angle: 266 deg (clockwise (clockwise from positive Y) from positive Y) Axial Field: B Axial Field: B z0 z0 = 45 nT = 45 nT Magnetic Helicity: Negative Magnetic Helicity: Negative Clock angle Clock angle GSE Y GSE Y GSE Z GSE Z Orientation of the Ejecta was 266 deg Orientation of the Ejecta was 266 deg The magnetic cloud arrived The magnetic cloud arrived at 1AU at about 1200UT. It at 1AU at about 1200UT. It was was southwardly southwardly oriented, oriented, as expected, with the as expected, with the clock angle of about clock angle of about 266 266 degree degree and it had and it had negative negative helicity helicity (see the event (see the event reconstruction figure reconstruction figure below) . below) . The Bz measured by the ACE The Bz measured by the ACE satellite reached satellite reached -26 nT -26 nT , , while the Dst index while the Dst index decreased by - decreased by - 310 nT 310 nT from from –50 to -360 nT. –50 to -360 nT. Oct 28 CME Oct 28 CME Event I Event I Oct 29 ACE Oct 29 ACE event I event I Event I: Oct 29 ACE Event I: Oct 29 ACE Reconstruction Reconstruction Event I: Oct 28 2003 X17.2/4B Event I: Oct 28 2003 X17.2/4B Flare Flare contours show position of the H contours show position of the H flare and lines are linear force flare and lines are linear force free field free field Oct 29 CME Oct 29 CME Event II Event II The interplanetary ejecta The interplanetary ejecta arrived at 1 AU on Oct 30 at arrived at 1 AU on Oct 30 at about 1530UT. Since we could about 1530UT. Since we could not clearly distinguish a not clearly distinguish a magnetic cloud in this magnetic cloud in this disturbance - no magnetic disturbance - no magnetic cloud reconstruction has been cloud reconstruction has been done. done. Nevertheless this, quite Nevertheless this, quite possibly, complex ejecta, possibly, complex ejecta, indeed, presented a strong indeed, presented a strong southward Bz component of southward Bz component of -29 -29 nT and the Dst index dropped nT and the Dst index dropped by about - by about - 300 300 nT from nT from -100 to -400 nT. -100 to -400 nT. Oct 30 ACE Oct 30 ACE event iI event iI Event II: Oct 29 2003 X11/2B Event II: Oct 29 2003 X11/2B Flare Flare 1. 1. Yurchyshyn, V., Wang, H., and Abramenko, V., 2003, Yurchyshyn, V., Wang, H., and Abramenko, V., 2003, Adv. Adv. Space Res Space Res ., 32, #10 ., 32, #10 2. 2. Yurchyshyn, V., Wang, H., and Abramenko, V., 2004, Yurchyshyn, V., Wang, H., and Abramenko, V., 2004, Space Space Weather Weather , 2, S02001 , 2, S02001 3. 3. Cane, H.V., Richardson, I.G., and St. Cyr, O.C., Cane, H.V., Richardson, I.G., and St. Cyr, O.C., 2000, 2000, GRL GRL , 27 , 27 4. 4. Wu, C.C., and Lepping, R.P., 2002, Wu, C.C., and Lepping, R.P., 2002, JGR JGR , 107, #A11 , 107, #A11 5. 5. Gonzalez, W.D., et al., 2004, Gonzalez, W.D., et al., 2004, J. Atm. Sol-Terr. Phys J. Atm. Sol-Terr. Phys ., ., 66, 161 66, 161 Acknowledgement: We thank the ACE MAG/SWEPAM instrument team and the ACE Science Center Acknowledgement: We thank the ACE MAG/SWEPAM instrument team and the ACE Science Center for providing the ACE data. In particular, we thank Ruth Skoug for providing the ACE data. In particular, we thank Ruth Skoug for providing the merged for providing the merged data set for the Oct 30 event. We acknowledge the use of geomagnetic data from the data set for the Oct 30 event. We acknowledge the use of geomagnetic data from the World Data Center for Geomagnetism in Kyoto. The CME catalog is generated, and World Data Center for Geomagnetism in Kyoto. The CME catalog is generated, and maintained, by the Center for Solar Physics and Space Weather, The Catholic University maintained, by the Center for Solar Physics and Space Weather, The Catholic University of America in cooperation with the Naval Research Laboratory and NASA. SOHO is a of America in cooperation with the Naval Research Laboratory and NASA. SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. We acknowledge the use of project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. We acknowledge the use of the data from the data from the Global High Resolution Ha Network, operated by the Big Bear Solar the Global High Resolution Ha Network, operated by the Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology. Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology. The BBSO work was supported, in part, The BBSO work was supported, in part, by NSF grants ATM-9903515, ATM-0205157, ATM-0076602 and NASA(NAG5-9682) grants; work at by NSF grants ATM-9903515, ATM-0205157, ATM-0076602 and NASA(NAG5-9682) grants; work at UCR was funded by NASA NNG04GF47G grant . UCR was funded by NASA NNG04GF47G grant . Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Science Foundation. References: References: There is no Ha data available There is no Ha data available for this solar event. for this solar event. Nevertheless, data from the Nevertheless, data from the Global Ha Network obtained 10 Global Ha Network obtained 10 hours before the eruption as hours before the eruption as well as the data on the well as the data on the previous days seem to suggest previous days seem to suggest that the erupted field may have that the erupted field may have its leading magnetic field its leading magnetic field directed southward. directed southward. Event III: Event III: The M3.9/2N flare at 0812UT on Nov 18 2003 produced The M3.9/2N flare at 0812UT on Nov 18 2003 produced a fast halo CME (1400km/s). Although the axial a fast halo CME (1400km/s). Although the axial field of the post-flare loops system (PFL) was field of the post-flare loops system (PFL) was east-west oriented and the system had positive east-west oriented and the system had positive helicity, the flare ribbons stretched along the helicity, the flare ribbons stretched along the dark H dark H filament, which suggests that the filament, which suggests that the orientation of the ejecta may not coincide with the orientation of the ejecta may not coincide with the that inferred from the PFL. The clock angle of the that inferred from the PFL. The clock angle of the PFL was about 10 deg. Based on the CME speed we PFL was about 10 deg. Based on the CME speed we estimated that i) the Bz to be between estimated that i) the Bz to be between –21 and -35 –21 and -35 nT nT and ii) the magnitude of the decrease in the Dst and ii) the magnitude of the decrease in the Dst index from its base value to be index from its base value to be -190…-250 nT -190…-250 nT (the (the blue box). blue box). Nov 18 CME Nov 18 CME Event III Event III Nov 20 ACE Nov 20 ACE event III event III The magnetic cloud arrived The magnetic cloud arrived at 1AU at about 0600UT on at 1AU at about 0600UT on Nov 20 and it was Nov 20 and it was southwardly southwardly oriented with oriented with the clock angle of about the clock angle of about 311 degree 311 degree and and positive positive helicity helicity (see figure (see figure below) . below) . However, the Bz, measured However, the Bz, measured by the ACE satellite, by the ACE satellite, reached reached -52 nT -52 nT , while the , while the Dst index decreased by - Dst index decreased by - 310 nT 310 nT from -50 to -360 from -50 to -360 nT. nT. Clock angle Clock angle GSE Y GSE Y GSE Z GSE Z Orientation of the Ejecta was 311 deg Orientation of the Ejecta was 311 deg Ejecta Time: 11/20 0936 UT – Ejecta Time: 11/20 0936 UT – 11/20 1912 UT 11/20 1912 UT Cone angle: 105 deg Cone angle: 105 deg Clock angle: 311 deg Clock angle: 311 deg (clockwise (clockwise from positive Y) from positive Y) Axial Field: B Axial Field: B z0 z0 = 57 nT = 57 nT Magnetic Helicity: Positive Magnetic Helicity: Positive Event III: Nov 20 ACE Event III: Nov 20 ACE Reconstruction Reconstruction Event III: Nov 18 2003 M3.9/2N Flare Event III: Nov 18 2003 M3.9/2N Flare EIT 195 A at 1313UT + LFFF a=-0.008 EIT 195 A at 1313UT + LFFF a=-0.008 EIT 195 A at 1313UT + LFFF a=-0.008 EIT 195 A at 1313UT + LFFF a=-0.008 BBSO DMG at 1716UT + LFFF ( BBSO DMG at 1716UT + LFFF ( =-0.008) =-0.008) The blue arrow indicates the The blue arrow indicates the direction of the axial field in direction of the axial field in the post flare arcade. the post flare arcade. This arcade was associated This arcade was associated with the halo CME on Oct 28 with the halo CME on Oct 28 and its magnetic field had and its magnetic field had negative helicity negative helicity . . The The clock angle clock angle of this arcade of this arcade was was about 215 degree, about 215 degree, which which is very close to the clock is very close to the clock angle of the reconstructed angle of the reconstructed magnetic cloud (266 deg). magnetic cloud (266 deg). In this unique case we were able to In this unique case we were able to identify the footpoints of the identify the footpoints of the erupted magnetic structure. The erupted magnetic structure. The comparison of the erupted EIT and comparison of the erupted EIT and H H filaments with the data on the filaments with the data on the magnetic cloud reconstruction magnetic cloud reconstruction shows that their orientation is very shows that their orientation is very similar. However, unlike event I, similar. However, unlike event I, the orientation of the post flare the orientation of the post flare loop system (the clock angle was loop system (the clock angle was about 10 degree) significantly about 10 degree) significantly differs from the orientation of the differs from the orientation of the magnetic cloud. magnetic cloud. EIT 195A at 0713UT: Dots EIT 195A at 0713UT: Dots trace a dark EIT filament trace a dark EIT filament which eruption was which eruption was associated with the flare, associated with the flare, blue dots show location of blue dots show location of its footpoints its footpoints Kanzelhohe Ha at 0818UT: Kanzelhohe Ha at 0818UT: Note Ha ribbons (contours) Note Ha ribbons (contours) running along the dark running along the dark right handed (positive right handed (positive helicity) filament helicity) filament Kanzelhohe Ha+0.44A at Kanzelhohe Ha+0.44A at 0814UT: Yellow dots show 0814UT: Yellow dots show the position of the same the position of the same erupted EIT filament, erupted EIT filament, while the red arrow show while the red arrow show the orientation of the the orientation of the interplanetary ejecta. interplanetary ejecta. BBSO DMG at 2015UT: blue BBSO DMG at 2015UT: blue lines are a LFFF ( lines are a LFFF ( =0.002) =0.002) and the blue arrow shows and the blue arrow shows the direction of the axial the direction of the axial field in the post flare field in the post flare loop system loop system http://www.bbso.njit.edu/~vayur/g_storms.html http://www.bbso.njit.edu/~vayur/g_storms.html
description
Ejecta Time: 10/29 1117 UT – 10/30 0349 UT Cone angle: 113 deg Clock angle: 266 deg (clockwise from positive Y) Axial Field: B z0 = 45 nT Magnetic Helicity: Negative. GSE Z. Clock angle. GSE Y. Orientation of the Ejecta was 266 deg. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Coronal Ejecta in October - November of 2003 and predictions of the associated geomagnetic events
Coronal Ejecta in October - November of 2003 and predictions Coronal Ejecta in October - November of 2003 and predictions of the associated geomagnetic eventsof the associated geomagnetic events
11Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, http://www.bbso.njit.edu/~vayur 22Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Riverside, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Riverside, http://www.igpp.ucr.eduhttp://www.igpp.ucr.edu
We have found recently that the intensity of Bz in the IMF is correlated with the plane of sky speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs)We have found recently that the intensity of Bz in the IMF is correlated with the plane of sky speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) 1,21,2 . In turn, the Bz in the . In turn, the Bz in the IMF is correlated with the Dst index of geomagnetic activityIMF is correlated with the Dst index of geomagnetic activity2,3,4,52,3,4,5. .
Here we present results of prediction of the magnitude and the orientation of the Bz and the Dst index made for 3 halo CMEs erupted on October 28 (event Here we present results of prediction of the magnitude and the orientation of the Bz and the Dst index made for 3 halo CMEs erupted on October 28 (event I), October 29 (event II) and November 18 (event III) of 2003. The comparison between the predicted values and the observed data shows that we were able to I), October 29 (event II) and November 18 (event III) of 2003. The comparison between the predicted values and the observed data shows that we were able to successfully predict the magnitude of 2 out of 3 geomagnetic events (events I and II), while we have underestimated the magnitude of the Dst index for the successfully predict the magnitude of 2 out of 3 geomagnetic events (events I and II), while we have underestimated the magnitude of the Dst index for the event III on November 18 2003.event III on November 18 2003.
Vasyl Yurchyshyn Vasyl Yurchyshyn Qiang HuQiang Hu
Event I: Event I:
The X17.2/4B flare started at 0951UT on Oct 28 2003 The X17.2/4B flare started at 0951UT on Oct 28 2003 and it was associated with a halo CME. The clock and it was associated with a halo CME. The clock angle (measured clockwise from the east) of the post angle (measured clockwise from the east) of the post flare loops system, associated with this CME, was flare loops system, associated with this CME, was about 215 deg and the erupted field hadabout 215 deg and the erupted field had negative negative helicityhelicity . This suggests that the axial field of the CME . This suggests that the axial field of the CME may have a southward may have a southward BzBz component.component. The plane of The plane of sky speed of the CME was about 1500km/s. Based on sky speed of the CME was about 1500km/s. Based on this speed we predicted i) the magnitude of the Bz in this speed we predicted i) the magnitude of the Bz in IMF to beIMF to be -30 … -44 nT-30 … -44 nT and ii) the decrease in the Dst and ii) the decrease in the Dst index from the base value be index from the base value be –250…-320 nT –250…-320 nT (the blue (the blue box below).box below).
Event II: Event II:
The X11 flare at 2037UT on Oct 29 2003 produced The X11 flare at 2037UT on Oct 29 2003 produced another halo CME. The lack of the data on the day of another halo CME. The lack of the data on the day of the eruption did not allow us to reliably determine a the eruption did not allow us to reliably determine a possible orientation of the axial field and magnetic possible orientation of the axial field and magnetic helicity. However, available data seemed to suggest helicity. However, available data seemed to suggest that the associated interplanetary ejecta may have that the associated interplanetary ejecta may have negative helicity.negative helicity. The plane of sky speed of this CME The plane of sky speed of this CME was, too, about 1500km/s. Based on this speed we was, too, about 1500km/s. Based on this speed we predicted i) the Bz to be between predicted i) the Bz to be between –30 and -44 nT–30 and -44 nT and and ii) the magnitude of the decrease in the Dst index ii) the magnitude of the decrease in the Dst index from its base value to be from its base value to be –250 … -320 nT –250 … -320 nT (see the blue (see the blue box).box).
Prediction Scheme:Prediction Scheme: I. The I. The magnitude of the Bz in IMF is magnitude of the Bz in IMF is related to the plane of sky related to the plane of sky speed of a halo CME:speed of a halo CME:
Solid line is an exponential fit Solid line is an exponential fit Bz[nT]=12.3+0.7exp(V/404).Bz[nT]=12.3+0.7exp(V/404). (r.m.s=7nT)(r.m.s=7nT)
Yurchyshyn et al. 2003, Adv. Space Res. 32, #10Yurchyshyn et al. 2003, Adv. Space Res. 32, #10Yurchyshyn et al. 2004, Space Weather, 2, S02001Yurchyshyn et al. 2004, Space Weather, 2, S02001
Plane of sky speed of halo CMEs, km/sPlane of sky speed of halo CMEs, km/s
Bz in
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MF a
t 1A
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Prediction Scheme:Prediction Scheme: II. In II. In turn, the Dst index of turn, the Dst index of geomagnetic activity can be geomagnetic activity can be estimated from the Bz estimated from the Bz component:component:
Oct 28, 2003 CME; Event IOct 28, 2003 CME; Event I
Plane of sky speed of halo CMEs, km/sPlane of sky speed of halo CMEs, km/s
Bz in
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prediction measurementprediction measurement
Oct 29, 2003 CME; Event IIOct 29, 2003 CME; Event II
Nov 18, 2003 CME; Event IIINov 18, 2003 CME; Event III
Results of the Prediction Results of the Prediction MadeMadefor 3 halo CMEs in October – for 3 halo CMEs in October – November 2003:November 2003:
Oct 28 Halo CME was earth Oct 28 Halo CME was earth directed and, as suggested by directed and, as suggested by the ACE data, it was the ACE data, it was approximately oriented along approximately oriented along the NS linethe NS line
Ejecta Time: 10/29 1117 Ejecta Time: 10/29 1117 UT – 10/30 0349 UT UT – 10/30 0349 UT
Cone angle: 113 degCone angle: 113 deg
Clock angle: 266 deg Clock angle: 266 deg (clockwise from positive Y)(clockwise from positive Y)
Axial Field: BAxial Field: Bz0z0= 45 nT= 45 nT
Magnetic Helicity: Magnetic Helicity: NegativeNegative
Clock angleClock angle
GSE YGSE Y
GSE ZGSE Z
Orientation of the Ejecta was 266 degOrientation of the Ejecta was 266 deg
The magnetic cloud arrived The magnetic cloud arrived at 1AU at about 1200UT. It at 1AU at about 1200UT. It waswas southwardlysouthwardly oriented, oriented, as expected, with the clock as expected, with the clock angle of aboutangle of about 266 degree266 degree and it hadand it had negative helicity negative helicity (see the event (see the event reconstruction figure reconstruction figure below) .below) .
The Bz measured by the The Bz measured by the ACE satellite reachedACE satellite reached -26 -26 nTnT, while the Dst index , while the Dst index decreased by -decreased by -310 nT310 nT from –from –50 to -360 nT.50 to -360 nT.
Oct 28 CMEOct 28 CMEEvent IEvent I
Oct 29 ACEOct 29 ACEevent Ievent I
Event I: Oct 29 ACE ReconstructionEvent I: Oct 29 ACE Reconstruction
Event I: Oct 28 2003 X17.2/4B FlareEvent I: Oct 28 2003 X17.2/4B Flarecontours show position of the Hcontours show position of the H flare and lines are linear force free flare and lines are linear force free
fieldfield
Oct 29 CMEOct 29 CMEEvent IIEvent II
The interplanetary ejecta The interplanetary ejecta arrived at 1 AU on Oct 30 at arrived at 1 AU on Oct 30 at about 1530UT. Since we could about 1530UT. Since we could not clearly distinguish a not clearly distinguish a magnetic cloud in this magnetic cloud in this disturbance - no magnetic disturbance - no magnetic cloud reconstruction has been cloud reconstruction has been done. done.
Nevertheless this, quite Nevertheless this, quite possibly, complex ejecta, possibly, complex ejecta, indeed, presented a strong indeed, presented a strong southward Bz component of southward Bz component of --2929 nT and the Dst index nT and the Dst index dropped by about -dropped by about -300300 nT from nT from
-100 to -400 nT.-100 to -400 nT.
Oct 30 ACEOct 30 ACEevent iIevent iI
Event II: Oct 29 2003 X11/2B FlareEvent II: Oct 29 2003 X11/2B Flare
1.1. Yurchyshyn, V., Wang, H., and Abramenko, V., 2003, Yurchyshyn, V., Wang, H., and Abramenko, V., 2003, Adv. Adv. Space ResSpace Res., 32, #10., 32, #102.2. Yurchyshyn, V., Wang, H., and Abramenko, V., 2004, Yurchyshyn, V., Wang, H., and Abramenko, V., 2004, Space Space WeatherWeather, 2, S02001, 2, S020013.3. Cane, H.V., Richardson, I.G., and St. Cyr, O.C., 2000, Cane, H.V., Richardson, I.G., and St. Cyr, O.C., 2000, GRLGRL, 27, 274.4. Wu, C.C., and Lepping, R.P., 2002, Wu, C.C., and Lepping, R.P., 2002, JGRJGR, 107, #A11 , 107, #A11 5.5. Gonzalez, W.D., et al., 2004, Gonzalez, W.D., et al., 2004, J. Atm. Sol-Terr. PhysJ. Atm. Sol-Terr. Phys., ., 66, 16166, 161
Acknowledgement: We thank the ACE MAG/SWEPAM instrument team and the ACE Science Center for Acknowledgement: We thank the ACE MAG/SWEPAM instrument team and the ACE Science Center for providing the ACE data. In particular, we thank Ruth Skougproviding the ACE data. In particular, we thank Ruth Skoug for providing the merged data set for the Oct 30 for providing the merged data set for the Oct 30 event. We acknowledge the use of geomagnetic data from the World Data Center for Geomagnetism in Kyoto. event. We acknowledge the use of geomagnetic data from the World Data Center for Geomagnetism in Kyoto. The CME catalog is generated, and maintained, by the Center for Solar Physics and Space Weather, The The CME catalog is generated, and maintained, by the Center for Solar Physics and Space Weather, The Catholic University of America in cooperation with the Naval Research Laboratory and NASA. SOHO is a Catholic University of America in cooperation with the Naval Research Laboratory and NASA. SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. We acknowledge the use of the data from project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. We acknowledge the use of the data from the the Global High Resolution Ha Network, operated by the Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Global High Resolution Ha Network, operated by the Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology. Technology. The BBSO work was supported, in part, by NSF grants ATM-9903515, ATM-0205157, ATM-The BBSO work was supported, in part, by NSF grants ATM-9903515, ATM-0205157, ATM-0076602 and NASA(NAG5-9682) grants; work at UCR was funded by NASA NNG04GF47G grant .0076602 and NASA(NAG5-9682) grants; work at UCR was funded by NASA NNG04GF47G grant .
Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
References:References:
There is no Ha data available for There is no Ha data available for this solar event. Nevertheless, this solar event. Nevertheless, data from the Global Ha Network data from the Global Ha Network obtained 10 hours before the obtained 10 hours before the eruption as well as the data on eruption as well as the data on the previous days seem to the previous days seem to suggest that the erupted field suggest that the erupted field may have its leading magnetic may have its leading magnetic field directed southward. field directed southward.
Event III: Event III:
The M3.9/2N flare at 0812UT on Nov 18 2003 produced The M3.9/2N flare at 0812UT on Nov 18 2003 produced a fast halo CME (1400km/s). Although the axial field of a fast halo CME (1400km/s). Although the axial field of the post-flare loops system (PFL) was east-west the post-flare loops system (PFL) was east-west oriented and the system had positive helicity, the oriented and the system had positive helicity, the flare ribbons stretched along the dark Hflare ribbons stretched along the dark H filament, filament, which suggests that the orientation of the ejecta may which suggests that the orientation of the ejecta may not coincide with the that inferred from the PFL. The not coincide with the that inferred from the PFL. The clock angle of the PFL was about 10 deg. Based on the clock angle of the PFL was about 10 deg. Based on the CME speed we estimated that i) the Bz to be between CME speed we estimated that i) the Bz to be between –21 and -35 nT–21 and -35 nT and ii) the magnitude of the decrease and ii) the magnitude of the decrease in the Dst index from its base value to be in the Dst index from its base value to be -190…-250 -190…-250 nT nT (the blue box).(the blue box).
Nov 18 CMENov 18 CMEEvent IIIEvent III
Nov 20 ACENov 20 ACEevent IIIevent III
The magnetic cloud arrived The magnetic cloud arrived at 1AU at about 0600UT on at 1AU at about 0600UT on Nov 20 and it wasNov 20 and it was southwardlysouthwardly oriented with oriented with the clock angle of aboutthe clock angle of about 311 degree311 degree and and positive positive helicity helicity (see figure below) .(see figure below) .
However, the Bz, measured However, the Bz, measured by the ACE satellite, by the ACE satellite, reachedreached -52 nT-52 nT, while the , while the Dst index decreased by -Dst index decreased by -310 nT310 nT from -50 to -360 nT.from -50 to -360 nT.
Clock angleClock angleGSE YGSE Y
GSE ZGSE Z
Orientation of the Ejecta was 311 degOrientation of the Ejecta was 311 deg
Ejecta Time: 11/20 0936 Ejecta Time: 11/20 0936 UT – 11/20 1912 UT UT – 11/20 1912 UT
Cone angle: 105 degCone angle: 105 deg
Clock angle: 311 deg Clock angle: 311 deg (clockwise from positive Y)(clockwise from positive Y)
Axial Field: BAxial Field: Bz0z0= 57 nT= 57 nT
Magnetic Helicity: Magnetic Helicity: PositivePositive
Event III: Nov 20 ACE ReconstructionEvent III: Nov 20 ACE Reconstruction
Event III: Nov 18 2003 M3.9/2N FlareEvent III: Nov 18 2003 M3.9/2N Flare
EIT 195 A at 1313UT + LFFF a=-0.008EIT 195 A at 1313UT + LFFF a=-0.008
EIT 195 A at 1313UT + LFFF a=-0.008EIT 195 A at 1313UT + LFFF a=-0.008
BBSO DMG at 1716UT + LFFF (BBSO DMG at 1716UT + LFFF ( =-0.008) =-0.008)
The blue arrow indicates The blue arrow indicates the direction of the axial the direction of the axial field in the post flare field in the post flare arcade. arcade.
This arcade was This arcade was associated with the halo associated with the halo CME on Oct 28 and its CME on Oct 28 and its magnetic field had magnetic field had negative helicitynegative helicity. .
The The clock angleclock angle of this of this arcade was arcade was about 215 about 215 degree, degree, which is very which is very close to the clock angle close to the clock angle of the reconstructed of the reconstructed magnetic cloud (266 magnetic cloud (266 deg). deg).
In this unique case we were In this unique case we were able to identify the able to identify the footpoints of the erupted footpoints of the erupted magnetic structure. The magnetic structure. The comparison of the erupted comparison of the erupted EIT and H EIT and H filaments with filaments with the data on the magnetic the data on the magnetic cloud reconstruction shows cloud reconstruction shows that their orientation is very that their orientation is very similar. However, unlike similar. However, unlike event I, the orientation of event I, the orientation of the post flare loop system the post flare loop system (the clock angle was about (the clock angle was about 10 degree) significantly 10 degree) significantly differs from the orientation differs from the orientation of the magnetic cloud. of the magnetic cloud.
EIT 195A at 0713UT: Dots EIT 195A at 0713UT: Dots trace a dark EIT filament trace a dark EIT filament which eruption was which eruption was associated with the flare, associated with the flare, blue dots show location of blue dots show location of its footpointsits footpoints
Kanzelhohe Ha at 0818UT: Kanzelhohe Ha at 0818UT: Note Ha ribbons (contours) Note Ha ribbons (contours) running along the dark running along the dark right handed (positive right handed (positive helicity) filamenthelicity) filament
Kanzelhohe Ha+0.44A at Kanzelhohe Ha+0.44A at 0814UT: Yellow dots show 0814UT: Yellow dots show the position of the same the position of the same erupted EIT filament, while erupted EIT filament, while the red arrow show the the red arrow show the orientation of the orientation of the interplanetary ejecta.interplanetary ejecta.
BBSO DMG at 2015UT: blue BBSO DMG at 2015UT: blue lines are a LFFF (lines are a LFFF (=0.002) =0.002) and the blue arrow shows and the blue arrow shows the direction of the axial the direction of the axial field in the post flare loop field in the post flare loop systemsystem
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