Corn Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2005.
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Corn Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2005
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Transcript of Corn Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2005.
Corn Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2005
Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2005
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mill
ion
bu
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2005
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mill
ion
bu
$1.50
$1.70
$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
$3.30
$3.50
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2005
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
lio
n b
ush
els
Foreign Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 2215 2215 2215
Acres (M. P. A.) 80.2 81.4 82.6
Supply(M. Bu) 11904 13210 14513
Use:
Feed 5850
Food, Seed 2870
Exports 1950
Ending Stocks 1460 2540 3620
Projected Price $2.20 $1.65 $1.15
Wheat Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2005
Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2005
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2005
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2005
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
lio
n b
ush
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 527 527 527
Acres (M. A. Planted) 57.4 58.6 60.0
Supply(M. Bu) 2633 2737 2841
Use:
Food, Seed 968
Feed, Resid 200
Exports 950
Ending Stocks 523 619 715
Projected Price $3.20 $3.10 $2.65
Soybean Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2005
Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2005
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2004
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
lio
n B
ush
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2004
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 320 320 320
Acres (M. P. A.) 72.8 73.9 75.0
Supply(M. Bu) 2992 3218 3441
Use:
Crushing 1680
Exports 1135
Seed, Feed 149
Ending Stocks 135 255 375
Projected Price $5.90 $5.20 $4.50
Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2005
Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2005
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2005
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
Supply/Demand Projections:2004/2005Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 66.0 66.0 66.0
Acres (M. P. A.) 6.7 7.4 8.1
Supply(M. Bu) 404 471 536
Use:
Food & Seed 53
Exports 180
Feed 170
Ending Stocks 34 68 102
Projected Price $2.10 $1.45 $1.25
Cotton Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2005
Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2005
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Th
ou
sa
nd
Ba
les
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Production Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2005
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Th
ou
sa
nd
Ba
les
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2004
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Th
ou
san
d B
ales
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2004/2005 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 7.5 7.5 7.5
Acres (M. P. A.) 13.4 13.8 14.2
Supply(MB) 25.2 27.0 28.8
Use:
Domestic 5.8
Exports 15.0
Ending Stocks 4.1 6.2 8.4
Projected Price $50 $45 $40
What Could Change The Outlook?
South America Plant Mix Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S.,
World – Oil Supplies, War Exchange Rates China Weather
