Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved. The Source for Maritime Information and...

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved.

The Source for Maritime Information and Insight

Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1

OPTIMAR:OPTIMAR:Benchmarking strategic Benchmarking strategic optioptions for ons for European shipping and for the European European shipping and for the European marmaritime transport system in the horizon itime transport system in the horizon 2008-2018 2008-2018

Christopher Pålsson Niklas Bengtsson

Director Senior Consultant

June, 2010


The OPTIMAR Project

• Analysis of the European maritime industry• Shipping• Ports• Maritime related industry and maritime administrations

• Identification of drivers for change

• SWOT analysis

• Scenarios

• Strategic recommendations

• 2010 update


Global Redesign: rebalance of GDP

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Worl

d G

DP

, bil

lion

20

05

US

$

Rest of World

Brazil

India

China

J apan

EU

United States

Forecast

2010 GDP larger than 2008 GDP


GDP development in influential non-EU countries

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Rea

l GD

P an

nual

per

cent

chan

ge

China

Russia

United States

Source: IHS Global Insight

Forecast


Real GDP development in major EU15 countries

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Rea

l GD

P an

nual

per

cent

chan

ge

Spain

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Italy


Forecast


Real GDP development is some previously high growth EU27 countries

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Rea

l GD

P an

nual

per

cent

chan

ge

Latvia

Estonia

Lithuania

Romania

Poland

Slovakia


Forecast


World Trade:Pushed Two Years

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Worl

d E

xport

s, b

illi

on

ton

nes

Rest of World

Brazil

India

China

J apan

EU

United States

-7%

Forecast

2010 trade almost equal with trade in 2008


Cargo Tonnes in EU 27 Ports 2008

1,042

732

335

350

525

266

340

342

0 500 1,000 1,500

Liquid Bulk

Dry Bulk

Containers

GC & roro

Million tonnes 2008Source: Eurostat

Inward to a EU 27 portOutward from a EU 27 port


Cargo Tonnes in EU 27 PortsIndex 2004=100

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Volu

me

deve

lopm

ent i

n EU

27

port

s, in

dex

Liquid Bulk Dry Bulk Containers GC & roro

Source: Eurostat


Total world fleet development from 1976 and onwards, gt

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Tota

l Wo

rld fl

ee

t, m

illio

n g

t, 1

97

6-

Service

Offshore

Yacht

Cruise

Ferry

Roro

Vehicle

Container

Other Dry

General Cargo

Bulker

Other Tanker

LNG

LPG

Chemical Tanker

Oil Tanker

2010-05

Forecast


World Fleet by Flagpercent share based on gross tonnes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Tota

l Wor

ld fl

eet b

y fla

g re

gist

er, p

erce

nt o

f gt

Mid East

Other Asia

Singapore

Japan

China

Rest Of World

Liberia

Marshall Islands

Bahamas

Panama

Other Americas

USA

Other Europe

Norway

Other EU27

Germany

Italy

United Kingdom

Malta

Cyprus

Greece


World Fleet by Country of Ownerpercent share based on gross tonnes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Tota

l Wor

ld fl

eet b

y ow

ner c

ount

ry, s

hare

of g

t

Unknown

Rest of World

Mid East

Other Asia

South Korea

Singapore

Japan

China

Other Americas

Bermuda

Canada

USA

Other Europe

Switzerland

Norway

Other EU27

Italy

Germany

Denmark

UK

Greece

14%13%

4%

9%

9%


Recommendations Facilitating Seaborne Trade

• External relations – 1. WTO, 2. Multilateral agr.

• Port infra-structure – fast track

• Competition in ports – port package

• Short sea shipping• Preserving smaller ports

• Maritime space without barriers

• ICT – global standards

• Transport policy – research programme


Recommendations creating a Sustainable Future for Industry and Environment

• IMO – Ratification based on ownership (DOC) + One voice

• Safety & Security• Uniform interpretation of rules• Regulations perused and compliance controlled – ongoing task

• Transition to sustainability – continued research efforts

• State aid• Short term there is no need to revisit current schemes • Ahead the industry specific treatment should be questioned.

• Availability and quality of crew• Coordinate and support campaigns. • Support for apprenticeship

Thanks!Thanks!

Christopher Pålsson Niklas Bengtsson

[email protected] [email protected]

June, 2010

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved. The Source for Maritime Information and...

Documents

Transcript of Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved. The Source for Maritime Information and...