Sudden Stops and Liability Dollarization: Evidence from - RePEc
COPING WITH SPILLOVERS FROM POLICY NORMALIZATION IN ... · Additional measures to reduce the...
Transcript of COPING WITH SPILLOVERS FROM POLICY NORMALIZATION IN ... · Additional measures to reduce the...
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COPING WITH SPILLOVERS FROM POLICY NORMALIZATION IN
ADVANCED ECONOMIES
Renzo Rossini
Central Reserve Bank of Peru
Geneva, September 27-28, 2018
6th Annual Conference of the Bilateral Assistance and Capacity
Building for Central Banks Programme
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• Inflation targeting and independent monetary policy
• Inflation targeting + : takes into account financial macro stability
• Building buffers to contain capital flows and to retain the policy rate as an effective tool
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Since its inception in 2002, inflation targeting in Peru reduced the volatility of the interbank interest
rate and recover the policy rate as an effective instrument to anchor inflation expectations and to
regain the monetary policy as a countercyclical tool.
Prior to 2002, and since 1990, the Central Bank used money base targets.
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Inflation targeting has been effective in maintaining inflation expectations anchored
within the target range (1 to 3 percent) in 82% of the months since 2002.
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Lehman crisis
Taper tantrum
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BCRP policy rates changes are highly correlated with core inflation.
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Lehman crisis
Taper tantrum
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Independent monetary policy.
BCRP policy rate move in line with Fed Fund rate only when domestic macroeconomic
conditions are in line with the business cycle of the US.
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Lehman crisis
Taper tantrum
BCRP
FED
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Peru and US output gap moved together during the global financial cycle,
but in the opposite direction since 2010.
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USA
PERU
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• Inflation targeting and independent monetary policy
• Inflation targeting + : takes into account financial macro stability
• Building buffers to contain capital flows and to retain the policy rate as an effective tool
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Inflation Targeting
Inflation Target: 1% - 3% Operational Target: overnight interest rate
Additional Tools to Mitigate Credit
Cycles and Dollarization Risks
Reserve Requirements in Domestic and Foreign Currency are used to stabilize the Credit Cycle. Higher reserve requirements on foreign currency liabilities to control the dollarization risks. Additional measures to reduce the dollarization of loans. Sterilized FX intervention to reduce the exchange rate volatility and for the precautionary accumulation of International Reserves.
+
Monetary Policy Framework in Peru
Monetary policy in Peru is conducted considering also macroprudential objectives.
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An active use of reserve requirements can limit the impact of the global credit cycle
on domestic credit and increase the capability of BCRP to implement counter-cyclical
monetary policy even during periods of high financial markets volatility.
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The use of reserve requirements have contributed to reduce financial risks associated with credit cycles.
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Prudent reserve requirement policies have contributed to reduce the use of short-term bank’s foreign liabilities to finance domestic credit expansion.
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In 1990 adopted a floating exchange rate regime with the possibility of FX interventions oriented to reduce extreme volatility without affecting the trend. The exchange rate
flexibility allowed the use of the interest rate as an effective policy tool.
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Sterilized FX intervention of leaning against the wind has been effective in reducing the balance-sheet risks of balance without affecting the FX trend.
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• Inflation targeting and independent monetary policy
• Inflation targeting + : takes into account financial macro stability
• Building buffers to contain capital flows and to retain the policy rate as an effective tool
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FX reserves as a buffer stock has helped to reduce dollarization risks and the risk perception by market participants about the Peruvian economy
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Peru has solid fundamentals that allows the country to soften the effects of financial shocks.
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29.5
18.1 15.3 14.1
11.1
Peru Brazil Colombia Chile Argentina
2017: International
Reserves (% GDP)
23.1 23.6
47.5
54.3 56.5
Peru Chile Colombia Brazil Argentina
2017: Gross Debt – Central
Government (% GDP)
14.5
20.0
25.6
33.0
41.8
Peru Chile Colombia Brazil Argentina
2017: Total Debt Service
(% Exports of goods and
services)
164.1 152.6
128.9 125.6 124.0
Brazil Peru Chile Colombia Argentina
2017: Bank’s Provisions (% non-performing loans)
Source: Moody’s.
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Also Peru has low external vulnerability, as it has high international reserves, and low short-term external debt and current account deficit.
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-14.7
-9.7
-4.9
-0.1
0.0
0.4
4.0
5.6
5.8
7.1
10.0
14.7
17.5
18.0
19.9
20.9
23.5
40.2
68.9
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Venezuela
Turkey
Argentina
Chile
Egipto
Southafrica
Malaysia
Indonesia
Colombia
Mexico
India
Brazil
Philippines
China
Vietnam
Russia
Peru
Thailand
Saudi Arabia
External Vulnerability Indicator: 2017 (% GDP)
Higher external
soundness
Higher external
vulnerability
Note: Indicator = [ Official Foreign Exchange Reserves - Short-term
External Debt + Current Account Balance] / GDP.
Source: Moody’s
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Peru is among the few emerging market economies that has seen its risk perception (EMBIG) reduced during this year, and also has one of the lowest levels across the region.
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Despite the international financial markets volatility that has affected emerging markets, Peru has not experienced a significant sell-off in its local
assets because of the solid macroeconomic fundamentals.
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COPING WITH SPILLOVERS FROM POLICY NORMALIZATION IN
ADVANCED ECONOMIES
Renzo Rossini
Central Reserve Bank of Peru
Geneva, September 27-28, 2018
6th Annual Conference of the Bilateral Assistance and Capacity
Building for Central Banks Programme