Coping with Extreme Climate Events

Policy Implications

Joyashree RoyProfessor of Economics Coordinator-Global Change Programme-JUJadavpur University, KolkataMay 12, 2006

Research Question

Why and How to bind climate issues with wider developmental

issues.

Natural Resource Base

Access to water And sanitation

Extrem

e events

Livelihoods

Participation In Decision

making

Health

VulnerabilityTo Environmental

Change

Opportunity Security

Empowerment

Access to environmental info

Elements of Well being

Dimensions of Poverty

Ex of Env factors

Environmental

Links to dim

ensions

of poverty

Bottom up Approach

Building up from Observing the Behaviour

of direct stakeholders

Design of the study• identification of hotspots• understanding vulnerability • identifying coping mechanism: households and

communities • adaptive actions of

– vulnerable groups with private motive – government and non-government external agencies with

social welfare motive – generate both private and public goods and services.

• Careful analysis of these will provide us with a portfolio of actions.

Stake holders’ perception and action

• Through community response

• Through Household response

– Responses are based on the field survey following LIFE approach

Policy Framework

• Sustainable development goals

– Livelihood: employment– Institution: decision making, social capital– Food: poverty– Empowerment: education, health..

Hot spot selection

• hydrological model results on climate variability related water availability scenarios

• district wise map representing population density, intensity of agricultural activity, degree of water stress/abundance, precipitation pattern – They all were then overlaid on each other to identify

the villages i.e. the hotspot as intersection of all these characteristics.

• the households in each village have been first stratified according to their landholding pattern

Study area• The flood basin survey has been conducted in

– villages of Nandabar, Karabar and Manitiri of the Nayagarh district of Orissa in the Mahanadi river basin.

• the drought survey has been carried out in – sabarkantha and Ahmedabad of gujarat in the Sabarmati

river basin. Eight villages - two each from the talukas Himmatnagar and Modasa in Sabarkantha and Dholka and Sanand in Ahmedabad have been selected for the survey.

• A total of approximately 200 households have been surveyed which due to random selection procedure can be considered a fairly representative sample.

Vulnerability assessment

• Vulnerability of the study areas has been judged by three component indices representing three sources of vulnerability: threats to livelihood (VIL), food security (VIF) and access to market (VIM) based on household responses.

Vulnerability status

Category Sabarmati Hotspot Mahanadi Hotspot Percentage of households showing a more than 10% fall in monthly expenditure during extreme events

84 100

Percentage of households showing a more than 10% fall in monthly food expenditure during extreme events

28 84

Percentage rise in the price of staple food during extreme events

10 to 50 85 to 150

Coping capacity

• Diversified occupational pattern

• Infrastructure facilities

• Asset position

• Social capital

• Indebtedness

Mahanadi Hotspot: Occupational Distribution

0

20

40

60

No. o

f ho

useh

olds

Agriculture Business and selfemployment

Mahanadi Hotspot: Types of Farmers

51%

31%

16% 2%

Marginal

Small

Semi- medium

Medium

Mahanadi Hotspot: Land Distribution

80%

20%

Farm land

Non farm land

Mahanadi Hotspot: Educational Distribution

8%

90%

2% Illiterate

Primary/Secondary

Graduation and above

Mahanadi Hotspot: Lighting Fuel

0

5

10

15

20

No.

of

hous

ehol

ds

Kerosene Electricity

Mahanadi Hotspot: Cooking Fuel

0

10

20

30

40

50

No

. o

f h

ous

eho

lds

Wood Kerosene Electricity Cookinggas

Mahanadi Hotspot: Cropping Pattern

05

101520253035404550

No.

of

Hh

lds.

Pad

dy

Suga

rcan

e

Veg

etab

le

Nut

s

Pul

ses

(moo

ng)

Mahanadi Hotspot: Short-term Coping Strategies

33%

18%18%

2%

18%

11%

Store dry food andmedicinesWork in othervillagesCrop insurance

Migration

Protect livestock

Pray

Mahanadi Hotspot: Long-term Coping Strategies

30%

5%56%

9%

Build floodresistant houses

Build wallsaround houses

KeepcontingencyfundsBuy polythene

Mahanadi Hotspot: Infrastructure : Source of Potable Water during Floods

58%

2%16%

24% Flood water

Filtered flood water

Traditional souces

Non available

Mahanadi Hotspot: social capital: Support from Relatives

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

% o

f h

hld

s

Food Clothes Seeds Housingmtl

Cashaid

Loans Free lab

Mahanadi Hotspot: Social capital: Support from Villagers & Friends

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

% o

f h

hld

s

Food Clothes Seeds Housingmtl

Cashaid

Loans Free lab

Mahanadi Hotspot: Institution: Governmental Support

0

20

40

60

80

100

% o

f HH

lds

Food Clothes Seeds Housing mtl Cash aid

Mahanadi Hotspot: Institution: NGO Support

0102030405060708090

100

% o

f hhl

ds

Food Clothes Seeds Housingmtl

Cashaid

Loans Free lab

Mahanadi Hotspot: Policy Suggestions by Stakeholders

05

1015202530354045

% o

f h

hld

s

Cro

pco

mp

en

satio

n

Ag

ri in

pu

t a

id

Sto

rag

e

Dri

nki

ng

wa

ter

He

alth

Tra

nsp

ort

Kn

ow

led

ge

Ess

en

tials

PD

S

Lo

an

Sabarmati Hotspot: Occupational Distribution

45%

13%

35%

6% 1%0%Agriculture

Animal Husbandry

Agricultural Labour

Labour

Service

Business

Sabarmati Hotspot: Pattern of Land Holding

31%

63%

5%1% Landless

Marginal

Small

Semi- medium

Sabarmati Hotspot: Lighting Fuel

57%

43%

Electricity

Others

Sabarmati Hotspot: Cooking Fuel

100%

Woodt

Sabarmati Hotspot: Coping Strategies

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

% o

f hou

seho

lds

Diss

ave

Borr

ow m

oney

Mor

tgag

e pr

oper

ty

Sell

prop

erty

Leas

e ou

t pro

pert

y

Sell

lives

tock

Sell

log

Mig

ratio

n

Wor

k in

Gov

t

Save

fodd

er

Buy

fodd

er

Sabarmati Hotspot: Reported Damage to Crops

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% o

f h

hld

s

Pad

dy

Whe

at

Jow

ar

Baj

ra

Cum

in

Cot

ton

Pul

ses

Cas

tor

Mai

ze

Sabarmati Hotspot: Village-wise Irrigation Availability

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Area (in ha.)

Nani-Demoi

Charanwada

Faredi

Juda

Vanaliya

Vejalka

Total

Irrigated area

Unirrigated area

Sabarmati Hotspot: Financial Aid Distribution

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

State Govt Others

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Aid non-receivers

Aidreceivers

Sabarmati Hotspot: Policy Suggestions by Stakeholders

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80In

sura

nce

Irri

gati

on

Mo

re

reli

ef

Hig

her

wages

Lo

an

Fo

dder/

fert

ilis

er/

Catt

le

cam

p

Subsi

dy

on

seeds

Adaptive capacity

• Complex combination of – technology – institutional governance

• Policy matrix

Policy MatrixTime Scale, Coverage & Actor

Technical Institutional

Policies Common to Flood & Drought Prone Areas Short –term Local Measures

Early detection systems of extreme weather events

Communication of early warning systems

Emergency relief Public distribution systems. &

Food banks Purchase/mortgage scheme for

livestock

Medium –term Community/state level Measures

Diversification of livelihoods through skill formation

Low interest credit systems

Better education Yearly joint scientific

meetings Long –term National Measures

Capacity building that transforms livelihood option set

R&D to develop disaster resistant crop strains

R&D to develop alternative cropping patterns

Investments in studying “the diverse” impacts of floods /droughts including impacts on water quality

Investments in rainfall & river monitoring & their modeling

Media- radio/T.V. programme disseminating information on adaptation measures

Policy MatrixPolicies Specific to Flood Prone Areas Short –term Local Measures

Safe places Flood proofing (structural & non-

structural) Water management through

appropriate storage and distribution systems to accelerate access to safe water

Food preservation

Resources to address disease outbreak

Medium –term Community/state level Measures

Phasing out high-risk land use practices

Assessing redistribution of risks from structural measures including dams, diversions and dykes

Recognising both positive & negative aspects of “floods”

Fostering institutional learning Investment in public health Policies to encourage efficient

water use Long –term National Measures

Building for current & future regimes

Enforcing land-use zoning & building restrictions in flood plains or removing perverse incentives for inappropriate risk-taking or redistributing involuntary risks likely to help for current & future variability

Inter-governmental cooperation on information systems including those related to assessing changes in flood regime due to climate interacting with land-use –residential & agricultural.

Policy Matrix

Policies Specific to Drought Prone Areas Short –term Local Measures

Small storage ponds Low cost irrigation

Early purchase schemes for livestock at good prices

Medium –term Community/state level Measures

Data dissemination

Ensuring technological gains are not over-run by increases in intensity of activities (enforced caps on crops/year, land receiving water)

Employing people during drought Information systems and

monitoring to ensure “fair compliance” &allocation at times of scarcity. “Managers” can then do their jobs

Water rights Long –term National Measures

Improving scientific knowledge, data capability

Investments in R&D in water saving practices and varieties

Regional water sharing agreements Water resource development

strategies that “take-into-account” variability

Structural changes Shift towards demand management

rather than never-ending strategies of augmenting supply

Thank youThank you