Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Rationale for Biofuels....
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Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Rationale for Biofuels.
”Biofuels and biodiversity – towards a sustainable use of Bio-energy”
Organized by: Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University
and KNAW’s Global Change Committee
Amsterdam, 12 December 2007 André FaaijCopernicus Institute - Utrecht University
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Houston we have a problem!
• Peak oil• Peak soil• Peak water• Peak biodiversity
loss• Peak population• Peak GDP
• Climate• Agriculture• Energy• Biodiversity• Poverty &
development
And it is urgent!
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
What’s it gonna be? material/economic
regionally oriented
environmental/social
globally oriented
A1 population: GDP: technological growth: high trade: maximal
2050: 8.7 billion 2100: 7.1 billion 2050: 24.2 103 billion $95/y 2100: 86.2 103 billion $95/y
A2 population: GDP: technological growth: low trade: minimal
2050: 11.3 billion 2100: 15.1 billion 2050: 8.6 103 billion $95/y 2100: 17.9 103 billion $95/y
B1 population: GDP: technological growth: high trade: high
2050: 8.7 billion 2100: 7.1 billion 2050: 18.4 103 billion $95/y 2100: 53.9 103 billion $95/y
B2 population: GDP: technological growth: low trade: low
2050: 9.4 billion 2100: 10.4 billion 2050: 13.6 103 billion $95/y 2100: 27.7103 billion $95/y
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Pathway vs. climate
Bron: KNMI; Dorland
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Projections for global final energy demand for the four IPCC scenarios (A1,
A2, B1, B2).
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800 others electricity gas liquids solids non-commercial
A1 B1 A2 B2
2000 2030 2050 2100
F
ina
l en
erg
y co
nsu
mp
tion
(E
J/yr
)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Future world’s energy supply…(combined with 80% reduction of GHG-emissions): a portfolio of options is
needed!Scenario C1
Scenario C2
1850 1900 1950
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2050 2100
1850 1900 1950
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2050 2100
Oil
Gas
Oil
Gas
Coal
Other
Solar
Traditional renewables
Other
Nuclear
Solar
Biomass
BiomassNuc.
Traditional renewables
Hydro
Hydro
Coal
Percent
Percent
Courtesy of IIASACourtesy of Shell
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Agricultural land use!
• We need a lot more food (especially protein).• We don’t have (a lot) more (agricultural) land.• Agriculture and livestock main threat for
biodiversity (today…), main consumer of water, main emitter of GHG’s.
• Agriculture and poverty interlinked: 70% of the world’s poor in rural setting;
• Productivity in agriculture is awful on large parts of the globe.
• Such agricultural practices often unsustainable as such.
• Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Potential land-use pattern changes(IMAGE)
A1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
year
Area
(Gha
)
A2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
year
Are
a (G
ha)
Bioresreve
Forest
Cropland
Grassland
Restland
low-productivity
Abandoned
[Hoogwijk, Faaij et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2005]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
So…• Investment in agriculture (and livestock)
is essential (2nd green revolution; see e.g. Fresco in collaboration with Faaij & Dijk);
• This is feasible (FAO)…• …with increased water use efficiency,
less land, protection of soils and better incomes.
• But: what gets the money and sustainable economic activity into the rural regions?
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
International bio-energy markets developing
fast… • Excitement:– entered first phases of commodity market trading
(ethanol); pellets the silent suprise.– Creates unique opportunities for both producers
regions as importers.– Entrepreneurs and policy now deal with development of
bioenergy in rapidly developing international context.
• Concerns:– Fierce international debate on sustainability;
remarkably fast response from governments, companies, NGO’s.
– Different interests & perspectives on governance & policy
– Vulnerable stage; many barriers remain
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Bio-ethanol flows 2000 (kton)
Courtesy of UNCTAD
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Bio-ethanol flows 2004 (kton)
Traded: 3 billion litresGlobal production: 32 billion litres
Courtesy of UNCTAD
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
More trade developments
IEA Task 40
0102030405060708090
100
Tra
ded
bio
ener
gy
volu
me
(PJ)
Import
Export
1%
21% / 4%
24% / 32%
26%
43%
2%
27% / 6%
13% / 2%Bradley, 2006
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Bioenergy today• 45 EJ + 10 EJ total use• 9 EJ + 6 EJ commercial; non-modern• ~ 8 EJ Modern; commercial:
– < 1 EJ electricity– ~ 2.5 EJ heat– ~ 1.5 EJ biofuels (bulk = ethanol; half of that
ethanol sugar cane based)• Main controversy on biofuels from annual
crops and palm oil. • Currently some 20 Mha in use for biofuels
worldwide (compared to 5,000 Mha for food)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Generations…1st Generation (EU,
US)• Annual crops = food
crops.• Limited to arable land.• Potential constrained.• High costs; mainly
feedstock.• Poor - modest GHG
and env. performance.• Pushed by ‘simple’
policies.
2nd generation• Lignocellulosic
materials.• Residues, wastes,
arable, pasture, marginal and degraded lands.
• Potential large.• Strong economic
outlook: technology more important.
• Good – excellent GHG and env. performance
• Demanded by more sophisticated needs
3rd generation: optimized conversion, ‘surprise feedstocks’ (…). But it will take time!
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Perennial crops (vs. annual crops)
• Lower costs (< 2 €/GJ)• Planted for 15-25 years• Low(er) intensity
– Can restore soil carbon and structure– Suited for marginal/degraded lands– Requires less inputs (well below key threshold values)
• Wide portfolio of species & production systems– Possibilities for enhancing (bio-) diversity– Adaptable to local circumstances (water, indigenous
species)
• Earlier development stage– Large scale and diverse experience needed– Learning curve to be exploited– Improvement potential
Miscanthus x giganteus
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Yields: perennials ~3x annual
Crop Biomass yield (odt/ha* yr)
Energy yield in fuel (GJ/ha*yr)
Wheat 4 - 5 ~ 50
Corn 5 – 6 ~ 60
Sugar Beet 9 – 10 ~ 110
Soy Bean 1 – 2 ~ 20
Sugar Cane 10 – 11 ~ 120
Palm Oil 10-15 ~ 160
Jathropha 5-6 ~ 60
SRC temperate climate 10 – 15 100 - 180
SRC tropical climate 15 - 30 170 - 350
Energy grasses good conditions 10 - 20 170 – 230
Perennials marginal/degraded lands 3 - 10 30 – 120
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
GHG Balances
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Wastes (Waste Oil,Harvest Residues,
Sewage)Fibers (Switchgrass,
Poplar)Sugars (Sugar Cane,
Beet)Starches (Corn,
Wheat)
Vegetable Oils(Rapeseed, Sunflower
Seed, Soybeans)
Red
uct
ion
in C
O2
Eq
uiv
alen
t E
mis
sio
ns
(Per
cen
t)
Source: IEA
IEA – Fulton, 2004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global potentials are large…; but need to be developed
434
111137
North AmericaJapan Ameri
0 0 0 0
Near East & North Africa
1 2 32 39
W.Europe0
1432 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
1460
100125
Oceania America
1560
100125
E.Europe
1 8 14 17
East Asia
1021
178221
410
sub-SaharanAfrica
41
149
331
Caribean &Latin America
178
253
315
46
2
68111
136
CIS & Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
434
111137
North AmericaJapan Ameri
0 0 0 0
Near East & North Africa
1 2 32 39
W.Europe0
1432 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
1460
100125
Oceania America
1560
100125
E.Europe
1 8 14 17
East Asia
1021
178221
410
sub-SaharanAfrica
41
149
331
Caribean &Latin America
178
253
315
46
2
68111
136
CIS & Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
Agricultural land: <100- >300 EJMarginal lands: <60- 150 EJAgri residues: 15-70 EJForest residues: <30-150 EJDung: 5-55 EJOrganic waste: 5 - >50 EJTOTAL: < 250 - > 500 EJ
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Bioethanol from lignocellulosic biomass
1. SHF2. SSF3. SSCF4. CBP
+BIG/CC…
Major demonstrationsIn US/Canada, EU
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Ethanol plants US (status 2006)
Source: John Urbanchuk (data for Oct 31 2006; green =
operating, red = under construction)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
U.S
. Eth
an
ol p
rod
uct
ion
[mill
ion
ga
llon
s]
U.S. BrazilU.S. projected WorldRFS
Global ethanol
Production &
outlook
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Synthetic fuels from biomass
Biomass & coal gasification to FT liquids - with gas turbine
Power
Pre-treatment:
- grinding - drying
feedstock is poplar wood
Gasification:
- air or oxygen- pressurised or atmospheric- direct/indirect
Gas cleaning:
- ‘wet’ cold or ‘dry’ hot
FT liquids
Offgas
Recycle loop
FT synthesis:
- slurry reactor or fixed bed
Gas turbine
Gas processing:
- reforming- shift
- CO2 removal
Major investments in IG-FT capacityongoing in China right now:- Reducing dependency on oil imports!- Without capture strong increase in CO2 emissions…
About 50%of carbon!
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
What are we waiting for?Yueyang Sinopec-ShellCoal gasification project; (China)
Shell gasifier arrivingat site September 2006.
15 licences in China at present…
Courtesy of Shell
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Economic performance 2nd generation biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3
Euro/GJ feedstock
Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006, Energy Policy
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Certification bioenergy (I): ongoing
initiatives • Governments: UK, NL, D, B, and
more EU nations…; EC.• NGO’s: • International bodies: UNEP,
UNCTAD, FAO,…• Market initiatives/multistakeholder:
roundtables on palm, soy and biofuels, GGL, Electrabel,…
IEA Task 40:Van Dam et al., 2007; Biomass & Bioenergy, Forthcoming:
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Certification bioenergy (III): concerted action…• First time that governments actually try to
set ‘sustainability criteria’ for a commodity! -> Paradigm shift with implications for food products, fodder, materials etc.
• This takes time (allow for learning).• Varying degree of concern: palm oil/soy
bean/corn… most debated, other (residues, wood) are approved by most stakeholders
• Methodological issues to be resolved: competition, biodiversity, a.o.
• Global convergence, dialogue and deployment priority (leaders needed).
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Biofuels roadmap (I).
• Biomass resource base; the foundation:– Perennials; build experience!– Biomass resource (and land) base much more
diverse than agricultural crops (and land) alone.
– Biomass cultivation schemes (with perennials) can offer substantial ecological and socio-economic benefits when done right.
– Develop biomass production in global market context (international trade & sustainability demands)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Biofuels roadmap (II).
• 2nd generation biofuels provide the economics energy & GHG balance to be the winning option.
• Lignocellulosic based EtOH and gasification based synfuels compete.
• Synfuels produced from biomass, coal and natural gas, provide flexible, large scale capacity (+CCS)
• Hydrolysis units can start as ‘add-ons’ to current EtOH production capacity.
• Lignocellulosic resources for power on shorter term (now); for fuels on medium term (before 2015).
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Stay with me for 4 more seconds…
• Current crisis in crossing the global carrying capacity requires unprecedented action…
• …and it has to be fast!• …and it will not be easy.• Bioenergy is at the nexus of land-use (2nd
revolution!), development (poverty!), energy (oil!) and climate (carbon stocks!); this is a unique position.
• We have the bioenergy options to achieve synergies (as well as the wrong ones)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Stay with me for 2 more seconds…
• Governance is the key; across policy fields (agriculture, energy, climate, development); consistent and stable.
• Policies on biofuels redesigned: from one to multiple objectives.
• Moratorium on ‘temperate climate biofuels’ seems wise; save money…
• …and spend it on the right biofuels.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
"Modern bio-energy and biofuels have the potential to cover one third of the future world's energy demand on a sustainable basis and provide a key
lever for much needed rural development on a global scale".
“Postponing action and generating confusion is at this stage immoral”