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Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Current status and outlook on international bioenergy
markets and trade: exporters, importers and consequences for
logistics
Bulk Port, Terminals and Logistics 2012, 20th - 22nd May 2012,
Mövenpick Hotel, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
André FaaijCopernicus Institute – Utrecht University
Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Biomass & bioenergy flows according to
IEA + other refs (2008)
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
(Source: Sikkema et al.,Bio FPR 2011 in IPCC, 2011)
Global wood pellet trade 2009
1 PJ = 60,000 tonnes
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
(Source: Lamers, RSER, 2011 in IPCC, 2011)
Global biofuels production and main international trade 2009
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
European pellet markets
N. A
merica (ocean ships)
2
1
4
Bulk large scale power
Bulk medium DH&CHP
Bulk pellets
households
Pellets in bags
householdsMajor exporter
s
2
4
1
33
NE Europe (coasters)
Central Europe (trucks)
[Sikkema et al, BioFPR, 2011]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global production and trade of the major biomass commodities
(2008)
Mton in 2008
Bioethanol Biodiesel Wood pellets
Global production
52.9 10.6 11.5
Global net trade 3.72 (*) 2.92 Approx. 4
Main exporters Brazil US,Argentina,IndonesiaMalaysia
Canada,USA,Baltic countries,Finland, Russia
Main importers USA,Japan, EU
EU Belgium,Netherlands,Sweden, Italy
(*) An estimated 75% of the traded bioethanol is used as transport fuel. [Heinimö & Junginger, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2009]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Phases in bio-energy use and market
development…1. Waste treatment and process residues; use on site, low costs.2. Local use of (more expensive) forest and agricultural
residues; some infrastructure development.3. Regional biomass markets, larger scale utilisation,
increasingly complex logistics; supportive policies needed.4. National markets with complex set of suppliers and buyers;
often increased availability.5. Increasing scale, cross-border flows; role for cultivated
biomass; bilateral activities.6. Global commodity market; pricing mechanisms; complex
interlinkages with existing markets (food, forestry, feedstocks)
[Faaij, Energy Policy, 2006]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
2050 Bioenergy Potentials & Deployment Levels
2008 Global Energy Total
Chapter 2 Possible
DeploymentLevels
2011 IPCCReview*
Land Use3
and 5million
km2
Chapter 10Modelled
DeploymentLevels for CO2 Concentration
Targets
Past LiteratureRange ofTechnicalPotentials0-1500 EJ
Glo
bal P
rimar
y En
ergy
Sup
ply,
EJ/
y
2008 Global Biomass Energy
2050 GlobalEnergyAR4, 2007
2050 Global Biomass
AR4,2007
<440 ppm
440-600 ppmTechnical
Potential
2050 Projections
Minimum
median75th
Maximum
100
300
150190
80
265300
Technical PotentialBased on 2008
Model and LiteratureAssessment
118
20 25
25th
Percentile
2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiberas Energy Content
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global RE supply by source in Annex I (ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI)
countries in 164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050).
Thick black line = median,Coloured box = 25th-75th percentile,Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global primary energy supply of biomass in 164 long-term scenarios in
2020, 2030 and 2050, grouped by different categories of atmospheric
CO2 concentration level in 2100
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
IEA Biofuel Roadmap
Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels will be vital to meet the
roadmap targets
Fina
l ene
rgy
(EJ)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50
• Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements
• Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case
Production costs shown as untaxed retail price
[IEA Biofuels Roadmap]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Biomass supply and demand in 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK
Mto
e p
rim
ary
bio
ma
ss
Supply potentials and net domestic consumotion of biomass for bioenergy (2020)
NREAPS supply
NREAPS demand
Green-X domestic supply
Green-X demand: Low Import
Green-X demand: High Import
[Hoefnagels et al, UU/Task 40, 2011]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Simulated Biomass trade flows 2020
RU
FI
SE
FR
UA
ES
NO
TR
PL
DE
IT
UKBY
RO
IE
LT
BG
AT
LV
HU
CZ
PT
RS
GR
EE
SK
BA
HR
NL
CH
DK
BE
MD
AL
SI
MK
ME KS
CY
LU
MT
MC
RU
FI
SE
FR
UA
ES
NO
TR
PL
DE
IT
UKBY
RO
IE
LT
BG
AT
LV
HU
CZ
PT
RS
GR
EE
SK
BA
HR
NL
CH
DK
BE
MD
AL
SI
MK
ME KS
CY
LU
MT
MC
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Import non-EU
Low Import scenario High Import scenario
Year: 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
2009 2015 2020
(pellets)Low
ImportHigh
ImportLow
ImportHigh
ImportTotal trade (Mtoe) 1.6 5.4 6.2 12.6 17.4Total trade (Mt wood pellet eq.)* 3.8 12 14 29 40Of which Intra-EU 55% 38% 32% 52% 32%Of which Inter-EU 45% 62% 68% 48% 68%*) Mt eq. = million metric tonne pellet equivalent (18 MJ/kg)
[Hoefnagels et al, UU/Task 40, 2011]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Driving forces, dimensions, scales…
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Good news on criteria frameworks and frontline of
debate:• Debate has come to it’s senses a bit.• Recognition that iLUC for biofuels
alone is inconsistent: it is about management of land use.
• Spillover effect from biofuels (< 1% of land for food) to agriculture & livestock; COOL!!!.
• More attention for synergies (e.g.: Committee Corbey, Netherlands, 2010, GSB initiative, 2010)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Overview and comparisonof initiatives to guarantee sustainability of
bioenergy
Preliminary results: 67 initiatives (regulation + systems) included• All relevant for (some) sustainability issues and/or• Various parts of the bioenergy value chain
20
16
17
11
3
Biomass and Bioenergy Biofuels Forestry* Agriculture* Social*
Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
overview and comparisonof sustainability certification
schemes• 28 initiatives cover the sustainability of
biofuels• From which 17 are developing principles
7
11
6
4
1011
7
17
11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Wo
rld
wid
e
Eu
rop
e
US
A
Oth
er
reg
ion
s
Go
vern
me
nt
Ma
rke
t/NG
Os
Inte
rna
tion
al
bo
die
s
Se
t of p
rin
cip
les
(mo
re th
an
1)
ind
eve
lop
me
nt*
Re
gu
latio
n in
pla
ce*
IEA Task 40
Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Operationalisation of sustainability criteria
costs
land availability
Criteria
deforestation
competition with food production
biodiversity
soil erosion
fresh water
nutrient leaching
pollution from chemicals
employment
child labour
wages
Impact
cropmanagement
system
yield quantity
cost supply curve
[Smeets et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Opposing sketches for the scenario preconditions, technological challenges, and impacts for bioenergy deployment on long term following TypicalIPCC SRES.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
A future vision on global bioenergy markets
(2050…)
[GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008]
250 Mha = 100 EJ= 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazilie
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Final remarks• Bioenergy trade has rapidly become more
important in total biomass supplies (for pellets in particular).
• Plays major role in balancing out fluctuations in demand (policy!) & supply (variable at large).
• Markets still immature; ethanol closest to commodity trading.
• Rapid growth very likely to continue; in particular (‘advanced’’) pellets (torrefaction); cultivated wood is becoming more important.
• More markets for lignocellulosic biomass emerge: 2nd gen biofuels, biochemicals…
• Only a future when done sustainably…• …while at the same time RE and GHG mitigation
targets cannot be met without large scale bioenergy deployment
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Thanks for your attentionFor more information, see:
www.bioenergytrade.org
• Detailed activities• Background information• Results• Events • Subscribe to the newsletter (2x per year).
And:- Sciencedirect/Scopus- http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report