IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency

Cooperation onKey Sustainable Energy Issues

UN ECE CSE 17th Session19-21 November, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland

Ferenc L. TothPlanning and Economic Studies Section

Department of Nuclear Energy

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Overview

1. SED: PESS mandate and implementation2. IAEA assistance to interested MSs3. International cooperation: UN Energy4. Main messages

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1. SED: PESS mandate and implementation

Capacity building for sustainable energy development –SED:

comprehensive energy system, economic, environmental analyses to assist Member States (MSs) in:

- decision making for SED by considering all aspects and criteria

- understanding environmental and climate change issues related to energy production and use

- assessing the role of nuclear power in SEDImplementation tools and mechanisms: models, training and technical advice, networks andpartnerships, data banks, 3E analyses, global analyses

and UN activities

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1. SED: Energy-economy-environment (3E)

Sustainable energy development: Key component of SDMulti-agency report on Indicators for SEDwith UN DESA: MS applications; country initiatives

Main criteria of SED – 3 dimensions:Social: accessibility, affordability, equity, safetyEconomic: overall productivity, energy system efficiency,

end-use efficiency, reserve and resource availability, supply security, energy system diversity, end-use pricing

Environmental: atmospheric emission ratios (GHGs, ADSs, CxHx), water pollution ratios (power plant heat, oil, mines), solid waste ratios (ash, radioactive waste)

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2. IAEA assistance to interested MSs

Energy system planning for a national energy strategy includes and IAEA tools cover:

Energy demand by economic sector and fuelDemand side managementEnergy supply by fuel, source of fuel, production and conversion technology Economics, including financeEnvironmental impact analyses & externalitiesSocial acceptanceLife cycle analysis (CO2)Infrastructure analysis

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2. IAEA assistance to interested MSs

Transfer planning models tailored to developing & ET countries

Transfer data on technologies, resources and economics

Train local experts

Jointly analyze national options

Help establish lasting local expertise

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2. IAEA assistance to interested MSs

Simplified Approach for Estimating Impactsof Electricity Generation

MAED

MESSAGE

FINPLAN

SIMPACTS

Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand

Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental impacts

Financial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion Plans

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MESSAGE: Model for Energy Supply SystemAlternatives and their General Environmental Impacts

OUTPUT

MESSAGE

INPUTEnergy systemstructure (including vintage of plant and equipment)

Base year energyflows and prices

Energy demandprojections (MAED)

Technology and resource options & techno-economic performance profiles

Technical & policy constraints

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

TWh

biomassgeothhydronucleargasdieselfuel oilcoal

Primary and final energy mixEmissions and waste streamsHealth and environmental impacts (externalities)Resource useLand useImport dependenceInvestment requirements

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2. IAEA assistance to interested MSs

Sources

ExtractionTreatment

Conversiontechnologies

Distribution

Currencies(fuels)

Services

Servicetechnologies

Hydro dam

Oil rig, treatment

Photovoltaic arrays

Uranium mine, nuclear fuel production

Refinery Generating stations

Gas rig, sweetening

Diesel, jet fuel Electricity

Electric gridTruck, aircraft

E-mail: PC, telephone, modem

Pen,lamp

Uranium Crude oil Hydro power

Natural gas Sunlight

Communicating with a friend

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2. MESSAGE: Electricity supply expansion

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

GW

h

WindHydroBeleneKozloduyCHPGasNew_HCNew_LignV_B_RMaritza

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2. MESSAGE results: scenario comparison

43.143.54 43.54 43.56 43.61 43.62 43.65 43.77 43.86 43.87 43.95 44.06

44.3

45.66

47.65

4949.22

50.62 50.71

51.29

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

5R(A

a)1R

(Aa)

4Rc(A

a)4R

(Aa)

6Rb(A

a)4R

a(Aa)

2R(A

a)3R

(Aa)

3R(A

ab)

4R(A

aa)

6Ra(A

a)6R

(Aa)

1N(A

a)7R

a(Aa)

7Rb(A

a)2R

(Ac)

1R(A

c)1R

(Ab)

2R(A

b)7R

(Aa)

Scenario

Cos

t (€

billi

on)

Figure 8.1. Cost comparison of the main scenarios and the sensitivity cases.

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3. International cooperation: UN Energy

About 15 UN organizations:- joint programme

- subsets working on projects- presentations and side events at UN CSD, UN FCCC, …

Here an example: Ghana

IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency

A UN-ENERGY Demonstration Study

conducted by• Department of Economic and

Social Affairs (DESA)• Food and Agriculture

Organization (FAO)• International Atomic Energy

Agency (IAEA)• United Nations Environment

Programme (UNEP)• United Nations Industrial

Development Organization (UNIDO)

with assistance form the Ghana Energy Commission

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3. Ghana: Objectives of the study

•Implement a case study on the implementation of the WSSD JPOI recommendation

Increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix

•Test the effectiveness of different policy options

•Advance thinking in energy systems

•Build capacity

•Foster UN-Energy cooperation

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3. Ghana: Key energy issues

Three key issues will shape the future of Ghana’s energy sector:

1.unavailability or inaccessibility of modern energy sources to a large fraction of the population,

2.non-affordability of commercial fuels, and

3.high energy import dependence

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3. Ghana: Approach

•Energy system analysisDetailed demand analysis distinguishing rural and urban areas (MAED)Detailed energy supply analysis (MESSAGE) Assessment of policy options

•Data input provided by Ghana Energy Commission, DESA, FAO, IAEA, UNEP and UNIDO

Modeling and analysis support by IAEA

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

TWh

Hydro Nat gas Diesel Coal Nuclear Micro Hydro Wind Solar Imports

3. Ghana: Electricity generation: Base case – least-cost supply

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3. Ghana: Policies and measures to promote renewable energy sources

• Portfolio Standard/Renewable Energy Quota (REQ) ScenarioA minimum share of renewable energy is imposed on electric utilities, rising from 2% in 2010 to 20% in 2030• Public Benefit Fund (PBF) ScenariosFund is created through levy on electricity transmission: US$1 per MWh to cover up to one-third of investments in renewable energy technologies • Clean Developmt Mechanism (CDM) ScenarioA price of US$15/tonne of CO2 avoided assumed

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3. Ghana: Impacts of different policies

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3. Ghana: Investment & Operating costs –alternative policies

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3. Ghana: Main insights

Current econ conditions (BL): role for renewables limited Supporting polices needed to promote market penetration; Ghana’s energy policy already includes diversification based on renewables: micro hydro, wind, and solar PV;Additional policy measures can help increase contribution of renewables but effectiveness and economic costs differ; Soft-measures (Public Benefit Fund and CDM): economic advantages: investments partly financed by internally generated funds or earnings from CO2 credits; Hard measures (Portfolio Standard/Renewable Energy Quota): more effective, but involve inefficiencies and higher costs;Demonstrated: suitability of IAEA’s energy models for analyzing the role of various energy technologies and for evaluating various policy measures

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4. Main messages

IAEA: not only- atomic: SED, 3E analysis, national energy

planning – full set of resources and technologies- energy: nuclear applications in many areas –

medicine, agriculture, water mgmt, …Capacity building: energy planning, 3E analysis – models, methods, indicators, data + trainingUN Energy: joint projects; case studies: thematic (energy efficiency w/ UNIDO), national (Ghana):to demonstrate SED concepts, applicability,

implementation

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