Cook County Housing 2011

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    i n s t i t u t e f o r h o u s i n g s t u d i e sD E PAUL UNIVERSITY

    The State o Rental Housingin Cook County

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    II | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

    KEY FINDINGS FROM THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY 2

    INTRODUCTION 4

    Chapter 5

    HOUSING TRENDS OVER THE LAST DECADE NATIONALLY AND IN COOK COUNTY:

    Diminishing Supply; Increased Demand or Rental Housing

    Chapter II 8

    CHARACTERISTICS OF RENTAL HOUSING AND RENTERS IN COOK COUNTY:

    Rental Plays A Critical Role in Cook County

    Chapter III 13

    CONDITIONS IMPACTING FUTURE RENTAL HOUSING OPTIONS I:

    Rising Rents; Decreasing Income

    Chapter IV 17

    CONDITIONS IMPACTING FUTURE RENTAL HOUSING OPTIONS II:

    An Explosion in Foreclosures

    Chapter V 22

    THE COOK COUNTY AFFORDABLE RENTAL MARKET IN 2020:

    An Increasing Afordability Gap

    APPENDICES 24

    Prepared by

    THE INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES AT D EPAUL UNIVERSITY

    In partnership with

    THE PRESERVATION COMPACT

    This project was made possible through the generous support o

    The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    Four in ten Cook County residents are renters yet to date much o the discussion about the housing crisis has

    ocused on its e ects on current and potential homeowners This report examines how changes in the housing

    market over the last decade have a ected renters and in particular access to a ordable rental housing in

    Cook County

    There has long been a shortage o a ordable rental housing in the United States During the rst part o the

    last decade that shortage worsened as low interest rates a strong national economy and a continuing public

    policy push to increase homeownership e ectively re-allocated investment resources into owner-occupied

    properties and away rom rental housing Demand or owner-occupied units led many owners o rental

    properties to convert rental units into or-sale condominiums and there was relatively little new multi amily

    rental housing construction to make up or the loss o those units

    At the same time that the supply o a ordable rental housing was decreasing the demand or a ordable

    rental opportunities increased The widespread recession o and negatively a ected wages and

    employment and resulted in a growing proportion o very low-income renters

    These national trends were mirrored in Cook County over the last decade Key ndings rom this

    report include:

    The a ordable rental housing supply is not keeping pace with demand In 2009 there

    was a shortage o 180,000 afordable rental units in the County, an increase o 9.1 percent

    since 2005.

    In households needed to make approximately per year to aford the

    countys median priced two-bedroom apartment ($1000 per month), i they were to pay

    30 percent o their income toward housing.

    The a ordable rental housing shortage is having its greatest e ect on less afuent

    renters More than three-quarters o households making less than $35,000 per year pay

    more than 30 percent o their income or rent.

    Over the last hal o the s rents increased Although between 2008 and 2010,

    rents in Chicago decreased by 1.9 percent and rents in suburban Cook County decreased

    by 4.3 percent, the County has still seen a net increase in rents since 2005. Real median

    rents rose 14.1 percent in Chicago and 13.3 percent in the suburbs between 2005 and 2010.

    The oreclosure crisis has a ected renters More than 97,000 units in multi amily buildings

    in Cook County have been part o a oreclosure action.

    The gap between a ordable rental housing supply and demand likely going to grow

    larger Taking into account likely demographic changes, household tenure decisions,

    regional economic conditions, and new construction, the gap in afordable rental units will

    increase to 233,000 by 2020.

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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    2 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    KEY FINDINGS FROM THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING

    IN COOK COUNTY

    There are a substantial number o renters in Cook County : percent o Cook County residents rent

    The need or afordable housing is growing The number o Cook County residents needing a ordable

    rental housing has increased percent since :

    GAP BETWEEN DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY,

    2005-2009

    YEAR HOUSEHOLDS IN NEED OF

    AFFORDABLE RENTAL HOUSING

    SUPPLY OF

    AFFORDABLE UNITS

    GAP

    2005 461,330 296,437 164,893

    2009 482,785 302,842 179,943

    Source: and American Community Survey

    The Cook County multi amily housing stock is diverse: Roughly percent o rental units in multi amily

    buildings have two-to- our units About percent have between and units and nearly percent

    have or more units

    More households are renting again: Between and the number o renter occupied homes

    increased by nearly while the number o owner-occupied homes decreased by over

    Renters are lower-income than owners: The median income or renter households in was

    This was percent o the median household income or owners which was

    Renters are younger than owners: The number o renter households exceeds the number o owner

    households in both the under and the to -age groups

    Younger households are making less: Between and real income or Cook Countys renter

    households that were younger than declined by over percent

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    Rents are increasing: Although real median rents dropped between and there has been a net

    increase in rents o percent in the City and percent in the suburbs between and

    REAL MEDIAN RENTS IN COOK COUNTY, 20052010

    YEAR CHICAGO SUBURBS

    2005 $880 $874

    2008 $1,023 $1,0342010 $1,004 $990

    Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS)

    Families making less than $35,000 pay the most. Nearly percent o renters making less than

    per year and percent o renters making between and pay more than percent o their

    income or rent and basic utilities

    The oreclosure crisis has afected amilies that rent: Foreclosures a ected rental units in Cook

    County between and

    Suburban oreclosures on rental properties are growing Foreclosures on suburban buildings with ve ormore units have grown rom percent o County oreclosures on such buildings in to percent o

    County oreclosures on such buildings in

    Areas that need afordable rental housing the most have been hit hardest by oreclosures Nearly

    percent o all rental units in two-to- our unit properties in low-income communities have been a ected by

    oreclosure lings

    The need or afordable rental housing will continue to grow. The gap between the supply o a ordable

    rental units and the demand or a ordable rental housing is projected to grow to units between now

    and

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    4 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    Almost all Americans rent at some point in their

    lives and rental housing plays a critical role in Cook

    County where approximately percent o all

    households rent Renting provides the opportunity

    to live independently without the challenges and

    costs o property maintenance and improvement

    that accompany homeownership For households

    that value or need exibility and economic mobility

    it is much easier to move rom one rental unit to

    another than it is to move rom one ownership

    situation to another For households that do not plan

    to be in a home long enough to be able to recoup

    the transaction costs inherent in buying and selling

    a property renting is a pre erable option For many

    others homeownership simply is not an option They

    do not earn enough to be able to save or a down

    payment or to cover the ongoing costs associated

    with owning property Lower-income individuals

    and amilies tend to be especially dependent on the

    presence o a ordably priced rental housing

    Rental housing is also important or the Chicago-

    land economy Lower-income workers such as con-

    struction workers teachers health care workers

    child care providers secretaries and retail clerks

    play critical roles in large sectors o the economy in

    both blue- and white-collar industries Many o these

    workers are likely to be renters Access to quality

    housing that is a ordable at a variety o income-lev-

    els creates economic stability and security or these

    households the businesses where they work and

    the regions economy as a whole

    For all these reasons attention to the preservation

    and development o a ordable rental housing is

    essential in Cook County

    This report builds on previous work done by the

    Institute or Housing Studies at DePaul University

    and The Preservation Compact a partnership

    among Chicago area civic and government

    leaders that ocuses on the preservation o

    a ordable rental housing in Cook County The

    report provides an overview o the countys

    current rental housing market assesses the e ects

    o the real estate and nancial crises (among

    other actors) on the market and identi es

    variations across di erent parts o the county

    Based on current conditions and potential changes

    in the broader economy it estimates how the

    countys rental market will evolve over the next

    years and discusses the rami cations o those

    di erent scenarios

    INTRODUCTION

    Housing is considered a ordable when a amily pays no more than percent o their income

    or shelter In this report a ordable rental housing is de ned as rental units a ordable to

    households making or less which is about percent o the ederal poverty level

    in At this income amilies should pay no more than per month or rent

    A F F O R D A B L E

    R E N T A L

    H O U S I N G

    D E F I N I T I O N

    See or example Preserve Renew Rebuild: A Rental Housing Action Plan or Cook County ( available atwww preservationcompact org produced by the Preservation Compant; the Sate o Rental Housing in Cook County: CurrentConditions and Forecast ( ) and Cook County Rental Housing: Snapshot ( ) both o which were produced byDePauls Institute or Housing Studies; and The Multi amily Housing Market and Value-at-Risk Implications or Multi amily Lending(DePaul Institute or Housing Studies working paper ) by James D Shilling the Academic Project Director o the Institute

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    National Shortage o Rental Housing

    There has long been a shortage o a ordable

    rental housing in the United States During the rst

    part o the last decade that shortage worsened

    as low interest rates a strong national economy

    and a continuing public policy push to increase

    homeownership e ectively re-allocated investment

    resources into owner-occupied properties and away

    rom rental housing Demand or owner-occupied

    units led many owners o rental properties to convert

    rental units into or-sale condominiums and there

    was relatively little new multi amily rental housing

    construction to make up or the loss o those units

    According to Harvards Joint Center or Housing

    Studies the nation had ewer a ordable

    rental units in than in Part o that loss

    resulted indirectly rom the growth in the national

    homeownership rate which reached a historic high

    o percent in the ourth quarter o

    At the same time that the supply o a ordable rental

    housing was decreasing the demand or a ordable

    rental opportunities increased The widespread

    recession o and negatively a ected

    wages and employment and resulted in a growing

    proportion o very low-income renters

    By approximately percent o all renter

    households had incomes below the national median

    and percent had incomes in the bottom quartile

    The return to the rental market o many homeowners

    who no longer were able to meet their mortgage

    payments and had to give up their homes added

    to the demand pressures By there were

    million very low-income renters competing or only

    million a ordable and available units

    Taken together the diminished supply o rental

    units the increased demand or a ordable units

    and reduced renter incomes has made housing

    increasingly expensive or those who rent The Joint

    Center ound that percent o all renters spent

    at least percent o their gross income on rent in

    up rom percent in Such renters are

    considered to be cost-burdened The proportion o

    renters spending more than hal o their income on

    rent increased by percentage points during this

    same period

    HOUSING TRENDS OVER THE LAST DECADE NATIONALLY

    AND IN COOK COUNTY: DIMINISHING SUPPLY; INCREASEDDEMAND FOR AFFORDABLE RENTAL HOUSING

    Chapter I

    Joint Center or Housing Studies Americas Rental Housing: Meeting Challenges, Building on Opportunities(Cambridge MA: Havard University Feb ) pIbid pIbid pIbid p

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    6 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    Cook County Trends Mirror Nation

    As in the country as a whole Cook County

    experienced a signi cant increase in homeownership

    in the rst part o the s Buoyed by a strongregional economy low mortgage interest rates

    and a surge in subprime nancing households o

    all income levels sought to obtain their part o the

    American dream Between and the

    countys number o owner-occupied units increased

    by more than (see Chart )

    Heightened demand or homeownership e ectively

    depressed the demand or rental housing The

    proportion o renter households dropped rom

    percent to percent during the period and manylandlords opted to take their rental units out o

    service Some converted them to condominiums and

    sold them to people looking to buy a home Others

    elected to combine smaller units into larger ones

    in order to make their properties more appealing

    to prospective renters In some cases entire rental

    properties were demolished to make room or more

    pro table land uses As a result o these and other

    actors the county had approximately ewer

    rental units in than it had in (see Table )

    Conditions changed considerably toward the end o

    the decade The bursting o the real estate bubble

    in and the resulting collapse o single- amilyhousing prices and the subprime lending industry

    contributed to the worst economic recession since

    the s Many homeowners ound themselves

    unable to meet their mortgage payments and lost

    their homes e ectively putting themselves back in

    the rental market Other households decided that

    renting was a more appealing option nancially

    These and other actors contributed to a reversal in

    the housing trends o the previous seven years

    The proportion o renter households increasedby nearly percentage points between

    and The number o owner-occupied

    homes decreased by more than with a

    corresponding increase o nearly renter-

    occupied units In many cases the new rental units

    were oreclosed single- amily homes and vacant

    condominiums However even with this increase in

    rental units Cook County ended with nearly

    ewer rental units than it had in

    See Appendix C or underlying data used to create all the charts in this report

    Sources: U S Census; and American Community Survey

    CHART 1. HOUSEHOLD TENURE IN COOK COUNTY, 2OOO2009 6

    OWNER-OCCUPIED UNITS RENTER-OCCUPIED UNITS OF HOUSEHOLDS RENTING

    1,400,000

    1,200,000

    1,000,000

    800,000

    600,000

    400,000

    200,000

    0

    43%

    42%

    41%

    40%

    39%

    38%

    37%

    36%

    35%

    # o

    f U n

    i t s

    # o

    f H o u s e

    h o

    l d s

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    TABLE 1. RENTAL UNITS IN COOK COUNTY, 2000-2009

    YEAR RENTER-OCCUPIED

    RENTED BUT

    UNOCCUPIED VACANT FOR RENT TOTAL

    2000 831,438 N/A 51,882 883,320

    2005 746,531 10,454 78,849 835,834

    2007 731,656 8,160 67,487 807,303

    2009 785,529 8,009 73,908 867,446

    Sources: U S Census; and American Community Survey

    Total rental units equal the sum o occupied rental units rented but unoccupied units and vacant units or rent While the AmericanCommunity Survey used these categories in and the U S Census combined sold but unoccupied unitsand rented but unoccupied units into the same category We there ore did not include rented but unoccupied units in thenumbers which understates both the total number o rental units in and the resulting loss o units between and

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    8 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    Cook County Rental Housing Stock

    Rental housing is particularly important in Cook

    County Cook County is the second most populous

    county in the United States behind Los Angeles

    It contains both the nations third largest city

    (Chicago) and numerous suburbs Because o that

    mix its rental market is broadly representative o

    many urban areas around the country

    Yet Cook County has a much larger proportion o

    renter households ( percent) than the country

    as a whole ( percent) Though its median renter

    household income is higher than the countrys it is

    one o the lowest among the major metropolitan

    areas (see Table )

    CHARACTERISTICS OF RENTAL HOUSING AND RENTERS

    IN COOK COUNTY: RENTAL HOUSING PLAYS A CRITICALROLE IN COOK COUNTY

    Chapter II

    TABLE 2. RENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRYS 10 MOST POPULOUS COUNTIES

    COUNTY POPULATION

    (in miilions)

    RENTER-OCCUPIED

    UNITS AS OF ALL

    OCCUPIED UNITS

    MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD

    INCOME FOR

    RENTERS

    OF RENTERS PAYING

    OR MORE OF

    INCOME IN RENT

    Los Angeles (CA) 9.9 52.2% $38,270 54.4%

    Cook (IL) 5.3 49.7% $31,367 50%

    Harris (TX) 4.1 42.9% $32,885 47.3%

    Maricopa (AZ) 4 34.6% $35,062 48.8%

    San Diego (CA) 3.1 44.8% $41,396 56.4%

    Orange (CA) 3 29.9% $51,084 52.1%

    Kings (NY) 2.6 69.5% $33,268 50.6%

    MiamiDade (FL) 2.5 43.1% $28,194 60.3%Dallas (TX) 2.5 46.7% $31,174 47.2%

    Queens (NY) 2.3 54.7% $44,040 49.3%

    United States 307 34.1% $30,576 47.7%

    Source: American Community Survey

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    Most Rental Units are in Chicago

    The majority o Cook Countys rental units are

    located in the City o Chicago Chicago has

    times as many rental units as the county suburbscombined Nearly hal o the citys residents live in

    rental housing compared with less than a quarter o

    the suburban population (see Table )

    The countys rental units are predominantly

    located in middle-income ( percent) and low-

    income ( percent) areas Nevertheless nearly

    one-quarter ( percent) are located in upper-income areas Within the di erent income areas

    most o the units are located within multi amily

    apartment buildings

    TABLE 3. CHARACTERISTICS OF COOK COUNTY RENTAL MARKET, 2009

    COOK COUNTY CHICAGO SUBURBS

    Total Rental Units (% o County Total) 867,446 627,033 (72.3%) 240,413 (27.7%)

    Total Renter Population (% o County Total) 1,941,989 1,391,715 (72.6%) 550,274 (27.4%)

    Total Population 5,189,163 2,788,472 (53.7%) 2,400,691 (46.3%)

    % of Population Living in Rental Units 37.4% 49.9% 22.9%

    Source: American Community Survey

    We de ne the low-income communities (PUMAs) as those whose median household income is less than percent o ederalpoverty level ( in ) The middle income communities (PUMAs) are those whose median household income is in therange o to percent o poverty level The high-income communities (PUMAs) have more than percent o poverty level

    The number o units in a building has a signi cant impact on the way an owner nances a build-

    ings acquisition re nance and or rehabilitation In general because o losses associated with

    real estate over the past several years lenders are reluctant to hold long term real estate debt

    in their port olios They pre er to originate loans and sell them to the secondary market earning

    a ee but reducing their long-term risk Because o the risks associated with loans to very small

    investor-owned properties the secondary market has virtually no appetite or loans to investor-owners o two-to-

    our unit buildings and nancing or buildings o this size is generally limited to loan products or owner occupants

    On the other hand buildings with ve or more units are evaluated rom an investment perspective and are nanced

    with commercial loan products that require a more complex and costly underwriting process Because o this most

    lenders pre er to nance larger projects (o ten those buildings with units or more) These buildings because o

    their size generate more revenue and can better absorb the underwriting costs

    Smaller projects (o ten buildings with ewer than units) typically generate less revenue and cannot as easily

    absorb the underwriting costs associated with loans sold to the secondary market Lenders are reluctant to hold

    these loans in their port olios and these buildings are more di cult to nance In Cook County and throughout the

    country this is a challenge to a ordable housing preservation because a substantial portion o the rental housing

    stock is in such mid-sized properties

    F I N A N C I N G

    I N T H E

    M U LT I FA M I LY

    M A R K E T

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    10 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    18.5%

    35.2%

    33.4%

    12.4%

    0.5%

    11.2%

    48.8%

    19.0%

    19.8%

    1.2%

    21.2%

    30.1%

    38.9%

    9.6%

    0.3%

    Most Rental Units are in Buildings with Five or

    More Units

    Cook Countys stock o multi amily buildings is

    diverse but county-wide the majority o such

    buildings have ve or more units In more than

    hal o all occupied rental units ( percent) in the

    county were in properties with at least ve units

    while a third ( percent) were in smaller two-to-

    our unit buildings

    In Chicago small buildings with two-to- our units

    (nearly percent) and mid-sized buildings with to

    units ( percent) make up the majority o rental

    units According to Cook County Assessor data

    Chicago had nearly times as many two-to- our

    unit properties as suburban Cook County in

    In suburban Cook County nearly hal o all units

    are located in mid-sized buildings with only about

    a th o rental units in two-to- our unit properties

    Chicago also has a larger share o its units in the

    largest buildings with over percent in buildings

    units or greater compared to percent in the

    suburbs (see Chart )

    Though Chicago has many more large multi amily

    properties these represent a smaller proportion o

    its total rental property stock compared to suburban

    Cook County Chicago has - unit properties

    compared to in suburban Cook County and

    the City has unit properties compared to

    in suburban Cook County (see Table )

    CHART 2. RENTAL UNITS BY BUILDING SIZE

    Source: American Community Survey

    TABLE 4. CHARACTERISTICS OF OCCUPIED RENTAL PROPERTIES, 2009

    CHICAGO SUBURBS COOK COUNTY

    Total 24 Unit Rental Properties 129,100 28,009 157,109

    Total 549 Unit Rental Properties 15,068 7,027 22,095

    Total 50+ Unit Rental Properties 1,050 277 1,327

    Source: Cook County Assessors O ce

    UNITS IN OTHER TYPES

    OF PROPERTIES

    UNITS IN SINGLE UNIT PROPERTIES

    UNITS IN UNIT PROPERTIES

    UNITS IN UNIT PROPERTIES

    UNITS IN + UNIT PROPERTIES

    CHICAGO SUBURBAN COOK COOK COUNTY TOTAL

    % o

    f R e n

    t a l U n

    i t s

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    Increase in Single Family Rentals

    One o the impacts o the weaker homeownership

    market in Cook County was a percent increase

    in the number o renter-occupied single- amily

    homes between and During this

    same period the City o Chicago experienced

    a percent increase in the number o single

    amily detached rental units compared to a

    percent increase in condominium rental units (see

    Chart ) As a result the proportion o single-unit

    rental properties in Cook County jumped by

    percentage points rom - to percent

    At least some o this increase can be attributed to

    the growing number o oreclosed properties When

    a lender holds title to a property or sells it to an

    investor the new owner may elect to rent it out in

    order to generate near-term revenue until the market

    improves to a point where the property can be sold

    or a avorable price In many such situations renting

    may be the only way to realize some return or come

    closer to breaking even as the owner investor would

    have had to take a loss were the property to be sold

    immediately in the weaker market

    Cook County Renters

    Cook County renters are younger and less afuent

    than owners The median income or renter

    households in was percent o

    that or owner households and percent o the

    overall county median Slightly more than a third

    o renter householdsmore than had

    incomes o or less compared with less

    than a tenth o homeowners At the opposite end

    CHART 3. CHICAGO SINGLE FAMILY RENTAL UNITS, 20072009

    Sources: U S Census; and American Community Survey

    DETACHED CONDOS

    # o

    f R e n

    t a l U n

    i t s

    Property Type

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    12 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    CHART 5. AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER BY TENURE, COOK COUNTY 2009

    RENTER OWNER

    Source: American Community Survey

    - - +

    Age o Householder

    # o

    f H o u s e

    h o

    l d s

    o the income spectrum nearly percent o owner

    households made or more compared with

    less than percent o renters (see Chart )

    Renters also tend to be younger than homeownersThe number o renter households ar exceeds the

    number o owner households in both the under

    and to -year-old age groups This relationship

    reverses around age By the time people near

    retirement age ( - years o age) there are

    times more owner households than renter

    households Households whose head is or older

    have the lowest proportion o renters (see Chart )

    The decrease in the proportion o renters over time

    is a result in part o the increasing income thato ten comes with age As people move along in their

    careers they tend to earn more and thus have a

    greater nancial capacity to purchase and maintain

    their own homes This pattern held true in the s

    despite real incomes alling between and

    across all age groups

    CHART 4. HOUSEHOLD INCOME (IN 000 S) BY TENURE, COOK COUNTY 2009

    RENTER OWNER

    Source: American Community Survey

    < +

    Income

    # o

    f H o u s e

    h o

    l d s

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    Rising Rents

    The reduction in Cook Countys number o rental

    units through contributed to a rise in realmedian rents rom to According to data

    rom the Multiple Listing Service on rental properties

    Chicagos median rents increased by percent

    over this period while those in the suburbs rose

    by percent (All gures are based on constant

    dollars ) With the recent downturn rents in

    the county have declined Between and

    rents in Chicago decreased by percent and rents

    in suburban Cook County decreased by percent

    Even so rents in were up substantially in real

    terms rom by percent in the City andpercent in the suburbs (see Table )

    TABLE 5. REAL MEDIAN RENTS IN COOK COUNTY,

    2005-2010

    YEAR CHICAGO SUBURBS2005 $880 $874

    2008 $1,023 $1,034

    2010 $1,004 $990

    Source: - Multiple Listing Service (MLS)

    Lower Incomes & Purchasing Power

    Though rents increased during the last hal decade

    a decline in real incomes reduced households overall

    purchasing power especially that o renters The

    largest drop in real incomes ( percent) occurred

    among households whose head was or younger

    the cohort most likely to be renters

    CONDITIONS AFFECTING FUTURE RENTAL HOUSING

    OPTIONS I: RISING RENTS; DECREASING INCOME

    Chapter III

    The methodology used here to measure changes in rents or certain sizes o apartments is a hedonic rent index model Thehedonic rent index model attempts to explain actual rents observed or rented dwellings by a range o property attributes such asthe location age o property and building size as well as size o unit and time period The resulting index o rental prices can bethought o as the average rent level that occurs in each period a ter controlling or these observable attributes

    Real income is income a ter adjusting or in ation

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    14 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    I a household paid no more than percent o its

    income in rent it would have had to make about

    to a ord the median priced two-bedroom

    apartment ( per month) in the county inThat was percent more than the youngest

    householdsthose most likely to be renterswere

    making in (see Table )

    Low Income Renters Hit the Hardest

    The combination o declining incomes and rising

    rents had the greatest impact on renter households

    making less than (see Chart ) Theoverwhelming majority ( percent) o these

    households were housing cost-burdened spending

    more than percent o their income in on rent

    and basic utilities The division o renter households

    in the next income class those making between

    and was nearly identical to the

    previous group with percent o these households

    paying over percent o their income towards

    rental costs

    TABLE 6. TRENDS IN COOK COUNTY REAL MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, 1999-2009

    HOUSEHOLDER

    AGE

    PROPORTION OF RENTER

    HOUSEHOLDS

    MEDIAN INCOME MEDIAN INCOME CHANGE

    < 25 90.1% $33,534 $25,008 -25.4%

    25 44 52.9% $62,705 $57,557 - 8.2%

    45 64 31% $71,483 $63,121 -11.7%

    65 + 26.2% $37,505 $33,376 -11%

    Total 40.7% $58,574 $52,539 -10.3%

    Sources: 2000 U.S. Census, 2009 American Community Survey. All o the gures are in 2009 dollars.

    Source: American Community Survey (ACS)

    CHART 6. DISTRIBUTION OF COOK COUNTY RENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2009BY THE PERCENT OF TOTAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON HOUSING

    AND BY TOTAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME (IN )

    < +

    < >

    # R e n

    t e r

    H o u s e

    h o

    l d s

    Percent o Income Going Towards Housing Costs

    Income

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    A Growing Afordability Gap

    Overall the gap between the demand or a ordable

    rental housing and the supply o such housing in

    Cook County grew by percent between andThough there was a small overall increase in

    the number o a ordably priced rental units during

    the period this increase was not large enough to

    meet the heightened demand Since most o the

    increased demand was in Chicago (nearly

    more low-income renter households as opposed to

    ewer than in the suburbs) it is not surprising

    that the a ordability gap grew more signi cantly

    there than in suburban Cook County ( percent

    versus percent) (see Table )

    Afordability Varies Widely by Community 11

    A ordability in Cook County communities varied

    widely and o ten changed dramatically between

    and (see Table ) For example inChicago the number o a ordable rental units

    increased more than percent in the Beverly

    community and by percent in the Je erson Park

    community while the Logan Square and Austin

    communities saw dramatic decreases in a ordable

    units during the same period Similarly the number

    o a ordable units declined in suburban Maywood

    but increased in the suburban communities o Skokie

    and McCook

    YEAR HOUSEHOLDS

    IN NEED OF

    AFFORDABLE

    RENTAL UNITS*

    SUPPLY OF

    AFFORDABLE

    RENTAL UNITS**

    DIFFERENCE

    (COOK COUNTY)

    DIFFERENCE

    (CHICAGO)

    DIFFERENCE

    (SUBURBS)

    2005 461,330 296,437 164,893 117,074 47,819

    2009 482,785 302,842 179,943 130,952 48,991

    Change 21,455 6,405 15,050 13,878 1,172

    Sources: 2005 and 2009 American Community Survey. (ACS)

    * De ned as the number o households whose rent was less than 30 percent o 150 percent o the ederal poverty level ($823 per month) or

    whose incomes were less than 150 percent o the poverty level ($32,931 or a amily o our).

    ** De ned as the number o units whose gross rent was lower than 30 percent o 150 percent o the ederal poverty level.

    TABLE 7. GAP BETWEEN DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY,2005-2009

    COMMUNITY CHANGE IN # OF

    AFFORDABLE

    UNITS

    CHANGE IN #

    OF AFFORDABLE

    UNITS

    COMMUNITY CHANGE

    IN # OF

    AFFORDABLE

    UNITS

    CHANGE IN #

    OF AFFORDABLE

    UNITS

    Chicago (all) 7,021 3.1% Suburbs (all) -616 -0.8%

    Beverly 1,303 115% McCook 2,106 54.4%

    Je erson Park 1,681 82.6% Skokie 1,760 48.8%

    Logan Square -2,686 -13.7% Maywood -2,900 -33.3%

    Austin -1,793 -19.8% Barrington -634 -34.9%

    Source: 2009 American Community Survey PUMS (Public Use Microdata Sample)

    TABLE 8. COOK COUNTY COMMUNITIES WITH THE LARGEST PERCENT INCREASE AND DECREASE INAFFORABLE RENTAL UNITS, 2005-2009

    Community in this report re ers to PUMAs or Primary Urban Microdata Areas which are geographic areas de ned by the U SCensus they are the smallest geography or which social and economic data are available in the American CommunitySurvey The PUMA areas are named by the most prominent central municipality or Chicago community area that they contain

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    16 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    Rental Vacancies Increase

    Given the growing gap between the demand or and

    supply o a ordably priced rental units one would

    expect to see a decline in Cook Countys rental

    vacancy rate Yet the rental vacancy rates or both

    Chicago and the suburbs more than tripled rom

    to to around percent be ore alling

    back to around percent in (see Chart )

    Increased vacancies resulted rom a combination

    o actors A weak regional economy caused many

    amilies to double-up; with the drop in real median

    incomes ewer people could a ord to live on their

    own reducing demand or rental units particularly

    less desirable ones Another contributing actor

    was the growth in the number o oreclosed

    multi amily properties during the second hal o the

    decade Uncertainty about the disposition o many

    o these properties led to reduced maintenance and

    upkeep which contributed in some cases to an

    increase in vacancies when tenants le t the units and

    were not replaced

    CHART 7. COOK COUNTY RENTAL VACANCY RATES 20062010

    V A C A N C Y R A T E

    10%

    9%

    8%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    4%

    3%

    2%

    1%

    0

    Source: Cook County Rent and Vacancy Report o First Quarter (Institute or Housing Studies)

    The vacancy rates were calculated rom the rental properties in Multiple Listing Service (MLS)

    CHICAGO SUBURBAN COOK

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    Foreclosures

    A mix o historically low interest rates rapidly

    appreciating property values and a strong

    economy in the early part o the last decade led

    many individuals and corporate entities to purchase

    multi amily properties

    These properties appeared to be good investments

    or both their ongoing cash ow and their

    appreciation potential In response to the increased

    demand or capital to acilitate such purchases

    as well as their own pro t opportunities lenders

    developed and re ned products to compensate or

    the risks associated with less creditworthy borrowers

    and properties

    In many cases lenders loosened their underwriting

    standards particularly or small two-to- our unit

    buildings in order to compete or business The

    continuing real estate boom helped limit the

    additional risk since many believed that rising

    property values would largely mitigate the negative

    nancial e ects o the bad loans

    Once the economic decline began however

    riskier mortgages resulted in a higher incidence

    o de ault and oreclosure The average number o

    oreclosures on multi amily properties rom -

    was percent higher than that or -

    Yet the increase had relatively little e ect on the

    market since the continuing rise in property values

    made it relatively easy or lenders to recoup their

    principal when re-selling oreclosed properties to

    other parties

    Once the economy began slowing in -

    rising unemployment rates made it harder or many

    tenants to meet their rental payments in a timely

    ashion causing more multi- amily property owners

    to all behind on their loans The weakened economy

    resulted in reduced demand or such buildings

    making it more di cult or struggling owners to

    sell their properties Declining property values also

    put many owners in a situation where they owed

    more on their mortgages than their properties were

    worth making it di cult to re nance their loans to

    lower monthly mortgage payments Taken together

    these actors increased the likelihood o de ault and

    ultimately oreclosure

    Explosive Growth in Foreclosures

    Like many other parts o the country Cook County

    has experienced explosive growth in residential

    oreclosures in the past ve years While the extent

    o the problem in the single- amily market has been

    well documented the problem has been similarly

    severe in the multi amily market

    CONDITIONS AFFECTING FUTURE RENTAL HOUSING

    OPTIONS II: AN EXPLOSION IN FORECLOSURES

    Chapter IV

    Record In ormation Services Chicago Title

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    18 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    The average number o oreclosure lings on

    two-to- our unit properties in Cook County nearly

    tripled rom - to - rom per

    year to (see Chart ) The average number o

    lings on unit properties increased even more

    steeply rom an average o per year in -

    to an average o per year in

    (see Chart )

    In the past our years multi amily oreclosures

    have directly a ected more than residential

    units in Cook County including almost in

    Chicago alone Nearly percent o the units in the

    countys two-to- our unit properties and more than

    percent o the units in larger multi- amily properties

    were directly a ected by oreclosure at least once

    between and (see Table ) In each o

    those years an average o percent o Chicagos

    CHART 8. COOK COUNTY FORECLOSURE FILINGS ON 2-4 UNIT PROPERTIES, 2000-2010

    Source: Foreclosures in Cook County Records and Deeds obtained by Property Insight,Record In ormation Service and Cook County Assessors O ce

    8,000

    7,000

    6,000

    5,000

    4,000

    3,000

    2,000

    1,000

    0

    SUBURBS CHICAGO

    Source: Foreclosures in Cook County Records and Deeds obtained by Property Insight,

    Record In ormation Service and Cook County Assessors O ce

    500

    450

    400

    350

    300

    250

    200

    150

    100

    50

    0

    CHART 9. COOK COUNTY FORECLOSURE FILINGS ON 5+ UNIT PROPERTIES, 2000-2010

    SUBURBS CHICAGO

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    multi amily units and percent o suburban

    multi amily units were a ected by a new oreclosure

    ling (See Appendix D or the Impact o Foreclosure

    Activity by Chicago Community Area)

    It is worth noting that oreclosures on smaller

    (two-to- our unit) multi amily properties hit a

    plateau in and have been declining since In

    contrast the annual number o oreclosures on

    larger properties has continued to rise

    Because o the much larger number o multi amily

    properties in Chicago a large majority o the regions

    multi amily oreclosures involved buildings in the

    city At the same time oreclosures increasingly

    have become a problem in the suburbs as well

    As illustrated in Table the suburbs have had a

    growing proportion o the countys multi amily

    oreclosure lings in the past ew years

    Lower Income Areas Hardest Hit

    Properties in lower-income communities tend to

    have lower values which may make them cheaper

    to purchase They also tend to be older and thus

    more susceptible to problems with their heating

    and other systems which can make them more

    expensive to maintain Landlords generally cannot

    charge high rents or these units which limits their

    pro t margins Lower-income tenants also may

    pose a greater risk to the landlords bottom line than

    more afuent ones They are o ten more transient

    which increases the risk o vacancies Because they

    tend to have less savings on which they can draw in

    times o crisis they are more likely to have problems

    paying the rent i they lose their jobs The loss o

    even one monthly rent payment can jeopardize a

    landlords already thin pro t margin; the loss o

    multiple payments can put a property at risk o

    de ault and oreclosure

    LOCATION

    ANNUAL AVERAGE

    UNITS IN UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    UNITS IN UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    ANNUAL AVERAGE

    UNITS IN + UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    UNITS IN + UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    ANNUAL AVERAGE

    ALL MULTIFAMILY

    PROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    ALL MULTIFAMILY

    PROPERTIES

    Cook County 4.9% 19.6% 1.5% 5.8% 3.2% 13%

    Chicago 5% 20.1% 1.5% 6.2% 3.4% 13.7%Suburbs 4.3% 17.3% 1.2% 4.9% 2.6% 10.3%

    Source: Foreclosures in Cook County Records and Deeds obtained by Property Insight, Record In ormation Service and Cook County

    Assessors O ce

    TABLE 9. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY ON RENTAL UNITS BY BUILDING SIZE, 2007 TO 2010

    YEAR

    UNIT

    BUILDINGS

    (CHICAGO)

    UNIT

    BUILDINGS

    (SUBURBS)

    + UNIT

    BUILDINGS

    (CHICAGO)

    + UNIT

    BUILDINGS

    (SUBURBS)

    2000 87.5% 12.5% 91.9% 8.1%

    2002 87.9% 12.1% 87.2% 12.8%

    2004 88.4% 11.6% 88.3% 11.7%

    2006 87% 13% 88% 12%

    2008 84.8% 15.2% 84.3% 15.7%

    2010 81% 19% 78.8% 21.2%

    Source: Foreclosures in Cook County Records and Deeds obtained by Property Insight, Record In ormation Service and Cook County

    Assessors O ce

    TABLE 10. PERCENTAGE OF COOK COUNTY MULTIFAMILY FORECLOSURES BY LOCATION AND

    BUILDING SIZE, 2000-2010

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    20 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    On average oreclosures a ected percent o

    all two-to- our unit properties in Cook County each

    year to In low-income communities

    however an average o percent o all two-to-

    our unit properties were a ected by oreclosure

    compared with percent o similar properties in

    upper-income communities The average annual rate

    o oreclosures or properties with or more units

    was times as high in low-income areas than upper-

    income ones ( percent compared to percent)

    (see Table ) The average annual oreclosure rate

    was also signi cantly higher or smaller (two-to-

    our unit) properties than larger ones Smaller

    properties have an inherently higher risk o de ault

    and oreclosure since the loss o rental income rom

    a unit in a two-to- our unit property has a greater

    proportional impact on the propertys nances than

    the loss o income rom a unit in a -unit property

    Loan de ault does not necessarily lead to oreclosure In most cases a lender

    and borrower try to work out some agreement to reduce or delay payments

    extend the loan term or otherwise re-structure the loan to give the borrower

    time to become current on its payments Lenders generally le or oreclosureon a property only as a last resort since doing so involves costs to pursue a

    judicial ruling ollow through on the oreclosure and ultimately take control o

    the property

    How the process plays outand how tenants in the building are treateddepends on a range o

    actors including the relative value and condition o the property the motivations o the lender and

    any collective action by the tenants In some cases a real estate company nonpro t or individual

    may acquire the property and continue renting to the existing tenants In other cases the lender may

    take ownership decide that the costs o maintaining a residential property are too great and evict the

    tenants In still other cases the properties on which oreclosure motions have been led end up in limbo

    with the lender or its agent never taking ull ownership or control

    Regardless o the ultimate outcome o a oreclosure ling properties that are seriously in arrears on

    their mortgages tend to be at risk o physical deterioration I a landlord is unable or unwilling to make

    the required loan payments it is even less likely to devote resources to repairs ongoing maintenance

    and property enhancement As a result the quality o the properties is likely to decrease even to a

    point at which the buildings no longer meet the local residential codes Although the tenants may not

    be ormally evicted they may well end up being orced out o the property because o the worsening

    condition o their units

    Vacant and severely deteriorated properties negatively a ect the value o other properties in the

    community and can contribute to an increase in area rents i there is already an excess o rental demand

    H O W

    F O R E C L O S U R E

    P U T S A F F O R D A B L E

    R E N T A L H O U S I N G

    AT R I S K

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    TABLE 11. AVERAGE ANNUAL FORECLOSURE RATE ON COOKCOUNTY MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES, 2007-2010

    UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    + UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    Cook County 4.3% 1%

    Chicago 4.3% 1.3%

    Suburbs 3.8% 0.6%

    Low-Income Communities 6.8% 2%

    Middle-Income Communities 4% 0.9%

    Upper-Income Communities 1.6% 0.5%

    Source: Foreclosures in Cook County Records and Deeds obtained by Property

    Insight, Record In ormation Service and Cook County Assessors O ce

    LOCATION

    ANNUAL

    AVERAGE UNITS

    IN UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    UNITS IN

    UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    ANNUAL

    AVERAGE UNITS

    IN + UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    UNITS

    IN + UNIT

    PROPERTIES

    ANNUAL

    AVERAGE ALL

    MULTIFAMILY

    PROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    ALL

    MULTIFAMILY

    PROPERTIES

    Low-Income Communities 7.8% 31.1% 2.3% 9.3% 5.2% 20.6%

    Middle-Income Communities 4.6% 18.5% 1.4% 5.6% 3.1% 12.6%

    Upper-Income Communities 1.7% 6.8% 0.8% 3.1% 1.2% 4.6%

    Source: Foreclosures in Cook County Records and Deeds obtained by Property Insight, Record In ormation Service and Cook County

    Assessors O ce

    TABLE 12. PERCENTAGE OF COOK COUNTY RENTAL UNITS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY FORECLOSURE

    (CUMULATIVE), 2007-2010

    Given the disproportionately higher rate o

    multi amily oreclosures in lower-income areas it

    is not surprising that such areas have the largest

    proportion o a ected rental units As highlighted

    in the table below in each o the past our years

    low-income communities have had almost

    percent o their rental units in two-to- our unit

    properties and percent o their rental units in

    unit properties become subject to a oreclosure

    ling Those proportions are nearly ve and three

    times as high as the percentages or upper-income

    areas respectively The cumulative e ect o the

    oreclosures on the lower-income communities has

    been substantial In aggregate about percent o

    all rental units in two-to- our unit properties and

    about percent o units in larger properties have

    been directly a ected by oreclosure lings

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    22 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    THE COOK COUNTY AFFORDABLE RENTAL MARKET IN

    : AN INCREASING AFFORDABILITY GAP

    Chapter V

    As this report has illustrated the demand or

    a ordable rental housing has been increasing in

    the past ew years and the supply o a ordablerental housing has not kept pace Indeed the

    gap between demand and supply in Cook

    County has grown in the past decade with

    resulting increases in the proportion o renter

    households that are cost-burdened What do

    these trends portend or the next years or

    lower-income households?

    Forecast scenarios developed by the Institute

    or Housing Studies at DePaul University

    estimate that regardless o whether and howthe economy rebounds between now and

    Cook County will continue to experience

    signi cant a ordable rental housing shortages

    and ar too many o its residents will pay more

    than a third o their income or rent

    These same scenarios estimate that demand

    or a ordable rental housing will exceed supply

    rom to units between now and

    depending on the speed and size o the

    economic recovery The percentage o renterswho will be rent burdened will range rom

    percent under the most optimistic scenarios

    and percent under the most pessimistic

    In the most likely scenario Cook County

    residents will experience moderate growth

    in real incomes o approximately percentbetween and or a median household

    income o Incomes at this level are

    likely to push homeownership rates up to

    percent by However these same income

    increases will put pressure on both rents and

    home prices e ectively reducing the supply o

    a ordable rental units Although the demand

    or a ordable rental units will all due to

    increased income the diminished supply o

    such units will have the net result o increasing

    the a ordability gap rom units into in (see Table ) Those

    remaining in the rental marketincluding

    many o the nearly percent o the countys

    households making or lesswill eel

    the economic pinch with the proportion o

    cost-burdened renters growing to percent

    See Appendix A or a detailed discussion o the

    methodology used to create this model

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    LOCATION

    MODERATE

    GROWTH

    WEAK

    GROWTH

    STRONG

    GROWTH

    Median Real HH Income $59,026 $50,202 $73,533

    Median Real Rent $1,064 $1,025 $1,115

    % o Renter Households 39% 41.5% 35.5%

    Demand or A ordable Rental Housing * 397,734 449,680 300,323

    Supply o A ordable Rental Housing ** 174,291 195,595 154,133

    A ordability Gap (Excess o Demand over Supply) 223,443 254,085 146,190

    % o Renters that are Cost-burdened 55.8% 63.9% 43.4%

    Source: James D. Shilling, A micro-simulation model o uture demand, supply, and afordability o rental housing in Cook County, working

    paper at the Institute or Housing Studies, 2011.* De ned as the number o households whose rent is less than 30 percent o 150 percent o the ederal poverty level or whose incomes are

    less than 150 percent o the poverty level.

    ** De ned as the number o units whose gross rent is lower than 30 percent o 150 percent o the ederal poverty level.

    TABLE 13. PROJECTED RENTAL MARKET CONDITIONS IN COOK COUNTY IN 2020

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    24 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    Zoning and other land use regulations notwithstanding rental housing tends to be concentrated closer to major job nodesLower-income households are more likely to be renters and they tend to live in areas with lower commuting costs

    Modeling Future Trends

    The predictive model used in this study to orecast uture trends takes into account a variety o

    actors including the likely demand or housing the extent o new construction o rental housing

    the removal o rental units rom the market and the strength o the regional economy It also

    accounts or social and economic conditions within individual PUMAs as well as the location o

    communities relative to peoples places o work

    Estimating Demand

    We posit that the demand or housing depends on the price o housing household income the

    elasticity o demand (the extent to which demand or housing decreases as the price goes up)

    the location o the available housing and the extent o social and economic distress in an area In

    general the probability o buying a home goes up as household income rises Younger households

    typically see their incomes rise at a aster rate than older households Higher-income households

    tend to be more likely to commute longer distances than poor households Areas with considerable

    amounts o distress are less likely to attract homeowners Because o the relationship between

    oreclosures and property deterioration communities with higher concentrations o oreclosures

    are also less likely to appeal to prospective homebuyers Not surprisingly we nd that there is

    considerable variation in housing demand across Cook Countys PUMAs

    Estimating Supply

    The supply o rental housing involves two components: the addition o new units and the

    preservation o existing units Whether or not there is new construction depends on the extent

    to which demand or housing exceeds the existing supply the rent class or which there is excessdemand and location 12 Although there is clearly excess demand or a ordable rental housing the

    economics o construction have limited the amount o new housing that has been built Simply

    put rent levels that are a ordable to lower-income renters tend to be insu cient in Cook County

    to cover the costs o development (including a reasonable pro t or the developer) Only with

    signi cant public subsidyin the orm o equity associated with the ederal Low Income Housing

    Tax Credit or other sourcescan such developments be economically viable to both the developer

    and the tenants and the availability o such subsidies has decreased in recent years as a result o

    declining public revenues and resulting budget cutbacks

    Whether or not a landlord elects to keep his or her rental units in service depends on the rents he

    or she can collect rom the tenants which is a actor o renter household incomes I the rents are

    insu cient to cover the propertys ongoing maintenance costs the landlord is likely to de er (oravoid) property upkeep e ectively letting the property slide gradually to a point where it is no

    longer viable as a rental unit Eventually the property is abandoned or demolished The pace o

    this decline is higher or neighborhoods already experiencing social and or economic distress

    communities that tend to have low and decreasing median incomes are declining

    APPENDIX A

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    Estimating Di erent Economic Scenarios

    In estimating the e ects on both the demand or and supply o a ordable rental housing in the next years

    we considered three potential economic scenarios The rst the weak economy scenario assumes ongoing

    job losses and sluggish income growth as national and regional economies continue to grapple with the

    rami cations o the recession In this case we assume that real incomes all by percent annually due to

    changes in labor productivity The second the strong economy scenario assumes strong income growth

    ( percent per year) and signi cant job creation The third or moderate growth scenario is something

    between the rst two It assumes moderate income growth ( percent per year) and moderate job creation

    In each case we actor in a li e cycle component o income growth as well where younger households

    continue to see their incomes grow aster than those or older households

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    26 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    American Community Survey on Housing Afordability

    The extent o rental housing a ordability varies considerably throughout Cook County The

    American Community Survey (ACS) de nes an a ordable apartment as one priced at percent

    or less o the monthly income or a amily o our making percent o the ederal poverty level

    In - percent o the poverty level equated to per year Thus an a ordable

    apartment would be one renting or or less per month

    Based on this de nition data rom the ACS show that percent o Cook Countys rental units

    quali ed as a ordable in The areas with the lowest proportion o a ordable rental units

    were in the northwest suburbs and in the Lakeview region on Chicagos north side The areas with

    the greatest proportion o a ordable units are in Chicagos south and west sides along with the

    west-side suburbs around Oak Lawn Lower-income areas tended to have the highest proportions

    o a ordable rental units

    APPENDIX B

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    PUMA

    MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD

    INCOME

    # OF AFFORDABLE

    UNITS

    AFFORDABLE UNITS

    AS OF TOTAL

    Cook County $52,539 302,842 34.9%Barrington $81,197 1,183 9.6%

    Schaumburg $70,118 2,297 13.2%

    Arlington Heights $61,479 4,736 18.7%

    Glenview $70,275 3,618 21.4%

    Skokie $75,022 5,364 22.6%

    Shiller Park $47,325 5,723 48.5%

    Maywood $54,294 5,820 27.5%

    Cicero $58,400 9,591 40.3%

    McCook $62,217 5,975 45%

    Orland Park $78,469 2,156 25.6%

    Oak Lawn $49,762 10,205 54.2%

    Oak Forest $60,229 2,943 33.6%

    South Holland $42,491 6,492 28.6%

    Chicago Heights $53,711 4,304 29.4%

    Suburbs (all) $62,750 70,407 29.5%

    Edgewater $40,075 30,274 47.5%

    Lakeview $73,451 9,527 17.3%

    Lincoln Square $57,887 7,681 23.4%

    Albany Park $50,775 10,843 39.3%

    Je erson Park $59,315 3,715 22.4%

    Portage Park $45,558 10,095 39.1%

    Austin $31,908 7,270 32.6%

    East Gar eld Park $23,663 10,574 33.8%

    Logan Square $51,304 16,849 29.2%

    Loop $70,518 12,831 21%

    South Lawndale $32,031 13,051 64.2%

    New City $37,805 15,827 52.9%

    Chicago Lawn $45,669 8,912 39.3%

    Grand Boulevard $28,985 17,091 42.4%

    Chatham $27,040 28,707 53.7%

    Englewood $29,199 13,115 44.8%

    Beverly $71,023 2,436 30%Roseland $36,062 6,420 42.6%

    South Deering $37,819 7,217 46.9%

    Chicago (all) $45,734 232,435 37%

    Source: 2009 ACS PUMS (Public Use Microdata Sample)

    As percent o the ederal poverty level equates to percent o the Chicago area amily median income the Compacte ectively is ocusing on a lower income cohort than the ederal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program The LIHTC programtargets households making percent or less o the area median income (AMI) HUDs de nition o very low-income householdsincludes those making up to percent o AMI

    NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF AFFORDABLY PRICED RENTAL UNITS IN COOK COUNTY

    PUMA S 14, 2009

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    28 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    DATA FOR CHART 1. HOUSEHOLD TENURE IN COOK COUNTY, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2009

    Occupied Units

    Owner

    Renter

    o Households Renting

    Sources: U S Census; & ACS Data Element: B -Tenure

    DATA FOR CHART 2. RENTAL UNITS BY BUILDING SIZE

    COOKCOUNTY

    CITY OFCHICAGO

    SUBURBANCOOK

    Units in Single-Unit Properties

    Units in - Unit Properties

    Units in - Unit Properties

    Units in Unit Properties

    Units in Other Types o Properties

    Source: ACS Data Element: B -Tenure by Units in Structure

    CITY OFCHICAGO

    SUBURBANCOOK

    COOK COUNTYTOTAL

    Units in Single-Unit Properties

    Units in - Unit Properties

    Units in - Unit Properties

    Units in Unit Properties

    Units in Other Types o Properties

    Source: ACS Data Element: B -Tenure by Units in Structure

    DATA FOR CHART 3. CHICAGO SINGLE FAMILY RENTAL UNITS, 2007-2009

    Detached

    Condos

    Sources: & ACS Data Element: B -Tenure by Units in Structure

    DATA FOR CHART 4. HOUSEHOLD INCOME (IN 000 S) BY NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND TENURE,

    COOK COUNTY 2009

    < - - - - +

    Renter

    Owner

    Source: ACS Data Element: B -Tenure by Household Income in the Past months

    APPENDIX C

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    DATA FOR CHART 5. AGE OF HOUSEHOLDERBY TENURE, COOK COUNTY 2009

    OWNER RENTER

    -

    -

    -

    -

    -

    -

    Source: ACS Data Element: B -Tenure

    by Age o Householder

    DATA FOR CHART 6. DISTRIBUTION OF COOK COUNTYRENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2009 BY THE % OF

    TOTAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON HOUSING ANDBY TOTAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME

    < K K-K

    K-K

    K-K

    K+

    -

    >Source: ACS Data Element: B -Household Income by Gross Rent as a

    Percentage o Household Income in the Past Months

    DATA FOR CHART 7. COOK COUNTY RENTAL VACANCY RATES 2006-2010

    Chicago

    Suburbs

    Source: Cook County Rent and Vacancy Report o First Quarter (Institute or

    Housing Studies) The vacancy rates were calculated rom the rental properties in

    Multiple Listing Service (MLS)

    DATA FOR CHART 8.COOK COUNTY FORECLOSURE

    FILINGS ON 2-4 UNIT PROPERTIES,

    2000-2010

    YEAR CHICAGO SUBURBS

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    20072008

    2009

    2010

    Source: Foreclosures in Cook County

    Records and Deeds obtained by Property

    Insight Record In ormation Service and

    Cook County Assessors O ce

    DATA FOR CHART 9.

    COOK COUNTY FORECLOSUREFILINGS ON 5+ UNITPROPERTIES, 2000-2010

    YEAR CHICAGO SUBURBS

    Source: Foreclosures in Cook County

    Records and Deeds obtained by Property

    Insight Record In ormation Service and

    Cook County Assessors O ce

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    30 | THE STATE OF RENTAL HOUSING IN COOK COUNTY

    LOCATION

    ANNUAL

    AVERAGE

    UNITS IN UNITPROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    UNITS IN

    UNITPROPERTIES

    ANNUAL

    AVERAGE

    UNITS IN + UNITPROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    UNITS IN

    + UNITPROPERTIES

    ALBANY PARK

    ARCHER HEIGHTS

    ARMOUR SQUARE

    ASHBURN

    AUBURN GRESHAM

    AUSTIN

    AVALON PARK

    AVONDALE

    BELMONT CRAGIN

    BEVERLYBRIDGEPORT

    BRIGHTON PARK

    BURNSIDE

    CALUMET HEIGHTS

    CHATHAM

    CHICAGO LAWN

    CLEARING

    DOUGLAS

    DUNNING

    EAST GARFIELD PARK

    EAST SIDE

    EDGEWATER

    EDISON PARK

    ENGLEWOOD

    FOREST GLEN

    FULLER PARK

    GAGE PARK

    GARFIELD RIDGE

    GRAND BOULEVARD

    GREATER GRAND CROSSING

    HEGEWISCH

    HERMOSA

    HUMBOLDT PARK

    HYDE PARK

    IRVING PARK

    JEFFERSON PARK

    KENWOOD

    LAKE VIEW

    LINCOLN PARK

    APPENDIX D

    FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY ON RENTAL UNITS BY BUILDING SIZE, 20072010

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    D E PAUL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING STUDIES

    FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY ON RENTAL UNITS BY BUILDING SIZE, 20072010 CONTINUED

    LOCATION

    ANNUAL

    AVERAGE

    UNITS IN UNITPROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    UNITS IN

    UNITPROPERTIES

    ANNUAL

    AVERAGE

    UNITS IN + UNITPROPERTIES

    AGGREGATE

    UNITS IN

    + UNITPROPERTIES

    LINCOLN SQUARE

    LOGAN SQUARE

    LOOP

    LOWER WEST SIDE

    MCKINLEY PARK

    MONTCLARE

    MORGAN PARK

    MOUNT GREENWOOD

    NEAR NORTH SIDE

    NEAR SOUTH SIDENEAR WEST SIDE

    NEW CITY

    NORTH CENTER

    NORTH LAWNDALE

    NORTH PARK

    NORWOOD PARK

    OAKLAND

    OHARE

    PORTAGE PARK

    PULLMAN

    RIVERDALE

    ROGERS PARK

    ROSELAND

    SOUTH CHICAGO

    SOUTH DEERING

    SOUTH LAWNDALE

    SOUTH SHORE

    UPTOWN

    WASHINGTON HEIGHTS

    WASHINGTON PARK

    WEST ELSDON

    WEST ENGLEWOOD

    WEST GARFIELD PARK

    WEST LAWN

    WEST PULLMAN

    WEST RIDGE

    WEST TOWN

    WOODLAWN

    Source: Foreclosures in Cook County Records and Deeds obtained by Property Insight Record In ormation Service and

    Cook County Assessors O ce

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    East Jackson Boulevard SuiteChicago Illinois

    Telephone: ( ) - | Email: housingstudies@depaul edu | Website: ihs depaul edu

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