Convergence of Demand in Consumer Goods - IJETMAS opened a cultural perspective of the consumption...

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International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476 83 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena Convergence of Demand in Consumer Goods Nebu John Abraham Research Scholar IRISH , Nirmalagiri College Kannur University, Kerala Dr N J Saleena Associate Professor of Economics Nirmalagiri College Kannur , Kerala ABSTRACT One of the important aspects of globalization is homogenization of consumer wants and needs. This paper uses product linkage data of Indian Readership Survey (IRS) on the usage of consumer goods in Kerala to analyze this issue. We examined whether the urban „consumer-demand‟ is more for the Fast Moving Consumer goods (FMCG) and Consumer Durables (CD) compared to rural consumers. This study also attempts to trace the evidences supporting the tendency of convergence of consumer demand in rural and urban Kerala. We find support for no statistically significance difference in demand between Urban and Rural area for FMCGs in contrast to Consumer durables. Using top ten Consumer goods categories in terms of demand this research concludes that there is an evidence for strong convergence in demand for FMCGs and moderate convergence in respect of CDs between rural and urban area. The implications of this on managerial focus and industrial policies are discussed to enrich our understanding of the issue. Key words Convergence in Demand, Consumer goods, Brands, Information 1. INTRODUCTION Liberalization of Indian economy had various influences on the consumer market in Kerala. Consumption of goods represents a dynamic relation with production and in this sense it has a social relationship. There are thoughts of estranged labor under capitalism which ultimately leads to „commodity fetishism‟ in Marxian analysis. Marx thought that it is the „exchange-value‟ part of the commodity is important in social relations rather than the „use-value‟ part of the commodity. To Marx, „use-valueis the relationship between commodity and consumer i.e.; the relationship between the subject and object only which is not important in the social relations and mode of production. This concept was modified by Jean Baudrillard [1] who thought that needs abstracts all instincts, drives and object relations. For him the there are values beyond use value and exchange value in a commodity such as symbolic value. Veblen‟s [2], perspective of conspicuous consumption with the sole objective of indicating person‟s level of wealth or pecuniary strength indicating this social status opened a cultural perspective of the consumption in societies world over which is very important in Kerala‟s context as well. Globalization and liberalisation of economies worldwide is transforming the markets and its relationship with the consumers. With Globalization, it is the indigenous brands that come under the threat of multinational brands. In India Advertisers[3] resorted to use Hindu epic heroes in Doordarshan and other imageries to exploit rural consumers easily. Various forums recognized the scope for improvement in productivity and competitiveness in view of internationalization in Kerala[4] In Kerala this has resulted in the conflict between traditionalism and modernity. It has created consumer identities, for lower caste males it was an opportunity to embrace fashion and consumerism. For middle class women it amounts to aggressively sexual, confident and public[5]. Therefore analyzing the consumption of any society reveals the society, culture and its production relationships in a larger context and in the light of

Transcript of Convergence of Demand in Consumer Goods - IJETMAS opened a cultural perspective of the consumption...

Page 1: Convergence of Demand in Consumer Goods - IJETMAS opened a cultural perspective of the consumption in societies world over which is very important in Kerala‟s context as well. Globalization

International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

83 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

Convergence of Demand in Consumer Goods

Nebu John Abraham

Research Scholar IRISH , Nirmalagiri College

Kannur University,

Kerala

Dr N J Saleena

Associate Professor of Economics

Nirmalagiri College

Kannur , Kerala

ABSTRACT One of the important aspects of globalization is homogenization of consumer wants and needs. This paper

uses product linkage data of Indian Readership Survey (IRS) on the usage of consumer goods in Kerala to

analyze this issue. We examined whether the urban „consumer-demand‟ is more for the Fast Moving

Consumer goods (FMCG) and Consumer Durables (CD) compared to rural consumers. This study also

attempts to trace the evidences supporting the tendency of convergence of consumer demand in rural and

urban Kerala. We find support for no statistically significance difference in demand between Urban and

Rural area for FMCGs in contrast to Consumer durables. Using top ten Consumer goods categories in terms of

demand this research concludes that there is an evidence for strong convergence in demand for FMCGs and

moderate convergence in respect of CDs between rural and urban area. The implications of this on managerial

focus and industrial policies are discussed to enrich our understanding of the issue.

Key words

Convergence in Demand, Consumer goods, Brands, Information

1. INTRODUCTION

Liberalization of Indian economy had various influences on the consumer market in Kerala.

Consumption of goods represents a dynamic relation with production and in this sense it has a social

relationship. There are thoughts of estranged labor under capitalism which ultimately leads to

„commodity fetishism‟ in Marxian analysis. Marx thought that it is the „exchange-value‟ part of the

commodity is important in social relations rather than the „use-value‟ part of the commodity. To

Marx, „use-value‟ is the relationship between commodity and consumer i.e.; the relationship between

the subject and object only which is not important in the social relations and mode of production.

This concept was modified by Jean Baudrillard [1] who thought that needs abstracts all instincts,

drives and object relations. For him the there are values beyond use value and exchange value in a

commodity such as symbolic value. Veblen‟s [2], perspective of conspicuous consumption with the

sole objective of indicating person‟s level of wealth or pecuniary strength indicating this social

status opened a cultural perspective of the consumption in societies world over which is very

important in Kerala‟s context as well. Globalization and liberalisation of economies worldwide is

transforming the markets and its relationship with the consumers. With Globalization, it is the

indigenous brands that come under the threat of multinational brands. In India Advertisers[3]

resorted to use Hindu epic heroes in Doordarshan and other imageries to exploit rural consumers

easily. Various forums recognized the scope for improvement in productivity and competitiveness in

view of internationalization in Kerala[4] In Kerala this has resulted in the conflict between

traditionalism and modernity. It has created consumer identities, for lower caste males it was an

opportunity to embrace fashion and consumerism. For middle class women it amounts to

aggressively sexual, confident and public[5]. Therefore analyzing the consumption of any society

reveals the society, culture and its production relationships in a larger context and in the light of

Page 2: Convergence of Demand in Consumer Goods - IJETMAS opened a cultural perspective of the consumption in societies world over which is very important in Kerala‟s context as well. Globalization

International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

84 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

globalization. Traditional markets in Kerala were once been meeting place of cultural exchanges of

society. Farmers, Small scale entrepreneurs, craftsmen gathered were once gathered in markets to

sell their indigenous products. The main advantage of the traditional markets is its role in eliminating

the middlemen and in ensuring maximum profit to the producers. This has changed over a period of

time due to the factors such as, 1. Primitive style of production and organisation of local and small

producers, 2. Availability of large variety of commodities, 3.Cheaper price due to economies of

scales resulting from mass production, 4. The changes of taste and preference of consumers and life

styles, 5. The emergence of supermarkets, 6. The development of transportation system and

specialists in marketing activities. A market survey done[6] by Kerala state government on the

markets in Kerala reported that out of 1290 markets, 281markets were new and 341markets were less

active now than it were 10 years before. This indicates the fact that the growth of traditional market

is extremely slow. Out of 1290 markets, 712 are owned by local body 319 own by private and rest of

it belongs to others. On the contrary, the latest Economic census conducted in 2005[7] indicates,

about 28 lakh enterprises out of which 69% are in non agriculture enterprises. It is striking that

among this 24% account for whole sale and retail. Thus one fourth of enterprises in Kerala now are

engaged in either wholesale or retail, which is an indication of consumer demand explosion in the

state. As per the latest National sample survey[8] average MPCE for 2009-10 in Kerala is highest in

rural area with Rs 1835 . In Urban area, Kerala is second only to Maharashtra with average MPCE

with Rs 2423. Moreover , the presence of non resident keralites (NRK) in Kerala is very high. The

total gulf population in kerala is estimated[9] as 21.9 lakhs in a survey conducted by Zachariah.

What is more important is the international exposure and the familiarity to the foreign goods that

caused an interest for consumer goods of foreign origin, especially branded goods in Kerala. In

Kreala as per Indian Readership figurs 2012 , Television ownership was 93 percent, satellite and

cable was avaliable to 89 percent, Number of publication ever read atleast once is 40 percent, FM

listnership is 23 percent, Internet awareness is 83 percent, telephone ownership is estimated for 21

percent in the population, Mobile pone is owned by 50 percent of the population and cinema goers

upto once in 6 monthis is 16 percent in the total population. As per IRS, the cinema viewers in

Andhra pradesh is 65 lakhs, in Karnataka it is 62 lakhs, In Tamil nadu it is 74 and in Kerala it is 18

lakh. Thus the 4 south states contribute 51% of all India cinema reach. Though Kerala is a small

state, in terms of readership intensity Kerala ranks in top position both in daily and magazines in

terms of readership intensity[10] . As a state , Kerala cannot be seen in isolation from India,

when it comes to the internet as the connectivity and coverage is on an all India basis. Therefore,

Kerala also follows the major trends recorded for all India for different popular websites. In august

2013 , the total internet audience in India was 794 lakhs [11] which increased to 818 lakhs in august

2014. Internet audience was found to be more among 15-34 age group. Services is understood to

have a total unique visitors(TUV) of 812 lakhs with 99 percent reach and 251 average daily visitors

(ADV). Search navigation attracts a TUV of 661 lakhs stood in the second place followed by social

media with TUV of 637 lakhs. It is interesting to note that the retail attracts a TUV of 521 lakhs and

a ADV of 74 lakhs. Entertainment,Directories /resources, news Information, Portals have very

strong TUV. As per the estimates in august 2014, Google with TUV of 761 lakhs , Face book (534),

yahoo(369) tops the list. The emerging sites are Network 18(194), Myntra.com(229),Wikimedia

foundation sites(234). We therefore live in a world that is more connected to easy diffusion of new

innovations in the form of patented branded goods. There is major improvement in the output

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International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

85 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

indicators of R&D statistics from the science and technology department of Governement of India.

There are 28940 patents applications filed for patents in India. Out of these patent applications most

of them are from foreign countries(23626 nos) . This points out the global interactions and the

integration of our economy in tune with the globalisation.

2. STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

It is interesting to note that, the percapita consumption expenditure of urban Keralite is 40%

higher than her rural counterpart. However in Kerala, rural MPCE is much higher than the national

average. Despite this fact, it is not clear whether the demand for consumer goods in rural area and

urban area in Kerala is significantly different. In the context of high media penetration it is clear that

the information environment in the state is most advanced and well ahead of any other state in India.

However, there is no recent study on the convergence of demand between urban and rural Kerala.

Therefore, it is pertinent to study whether globalization of markets resulted in convergence of

consumer needs and wants in urban is closely followed by rural area.

3. LITERATURE REVIEW

An importance feature of globalization is the convergence of Income, media, and technology.

Some authors believe that the free trade could lead to homogenous wants and needs. They expect

that the consumer‟s taste and lifestyles adapt to global environment and tend to be similar in many

respects. One of the ingenious arguments on the convergence of consumer wants belongs to

Theodore levitt [12] who has prophetically claimed that the globalization of markets could lead to

homogenization of wants and needs. He claimed that consumers would prefer standard quality

product with low pricing in such an environment. However, some authors [13] held the view that

consumers are not rational and therefore the homogenization of wants and needs is misplaced and do

not consider the cultural context in which the consumers lives and interacts. Bester argues [14]that

sellers of homogeneous products tend to agglomerate in a location due to imperfect information. He

presents the idea of Imperfect information about product quality reduces incentives of product

differentiation resulting in relaxation of price competition and therefore competes with minimum

differentiation with high quality and more homogenous products. There are scholars[15] who

believe that consumers imperfect information limit the maximum usage of varieties and therefore,

the larger the scope of economies of scale the lesser varieties offered in the market. Another

theoretical background of homogeneity of demand rests on the idea that consumers economizes

shopping costs to optimize consumer search[16]. The effects of liberalization[17] was observed to

generate an income convergence between wealthier nations and the other. According to Reifler[18] ,

globalization attitude, global consumption orientation and global brand origin helps in competing the

local markets. In a study by [19]after European Union, it was found that , even though individual

member differ substantially, the trend of consumer behavior tends to converge based on the diffusion

of new products. Comparing the middle income countries and high income countries on the food

demand , Regmi [20] found that there is a high rate of convergence in global food systems and they

pointed out that middle income countries follows high income countries. Waheeduzzamin

[21]Found that the consumption of emerging markets is catching up with the developed markets and

the rate is slower. Moreover they pointed out that the convergence is faster in consumer durables

than in other categories.

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International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

86 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

4. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY

The main objectives of the study is to find out the following

1. To explore the differences in the demand between Urban and Rural area for FMCG (Fast

moving consumer goods)and CD(Consumer durables) in the year 2012 by analysing the top

consumer products

2. To examine the convergence of demand for CD and FMCG in Urban and Rural Kerala by

analysing the data for Top Consumer products from 2008 to 2012

The specific hypothesis that the study indent to find out is following

Hypothesis 1: The demand for CD is same in Urban and Rural Kerala

in 2012

Hypothesis 2: The demand for FMCG is same in Urban and Rural

area in 2012

The study uses Indian readership survey IRS2008 (4th quarter) till 2012 last quarter .The

data we have collected for the analysis contains 32 Consumer durables and 30 FMCG products for an

overall analysis. The IRS covers, media penetration, product linkages and other demographic profiles

and therefore it is the most representative data which can be used to find out the current trends of

consumer market.

The study is divided in to two stages. In the first stage, the evidences are deeply examined

using statistical tests for differences in the consumer demand in Urban and Rural areas. For this

objective, top 10 consumer durables and FMCGs only were used as the least preferred and rare

products has been treated as outliers and eliminated to avoid distortions. In the second stage, in

order to measure the homogeneity and consistency in the group this study used estimated coefficient

of variations. The consumer durables considered for analysis are Television, LPG Stove, Electric

Iron, Dining table, Pressure Cooker, Kitchen Stick, Refrigerator, DVD player, Moped/Motor cycle

ownership, Telephone . The FMCGs used for analysis are Toilet soaps, Tea, Edible oil, Toothpaste,

Washing cake, Toothbrush, Washing powder, Talcum powder, Utensil cleaner, and Biscuits. Besides

this, it uses, NSSO, Census, Kerala Economic review, Adhoc surveys done by Kerala state

Economics and statistics department to substantiate the statement of problem and the context in the

introduction.

5. DATA ANALYSIS

5.1. Media Enviornment and consumer demand in the state of Kerala

It is generally accepted that, the information environment play a vital role in disseminating

the information required for buying any product. The role of media and communication devices has

more or less equal importance in the new age of innovation and technological changes. The

penetration of media and communication devices are examined to assess the importance of

information environment in facilitating the convergence of demand among consumers. Analysis

starts with the exposure to media and communication vehicles in Kerala shown in Table.1, on the

exposure of media vehicles in Kerala.

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International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

87 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

Table 1. Exposure to Media and communication Vehicles In Kerala in 2012

Media and Communication Vehicles No of Users (000's)

Satellite available 25847(90)

No of Publication read (Atleast One) 11438(40)

FM listenership (Ever) 6772(24)

Interner awareness 24884(86)

Own Telephone (Land Line) 6287(21)

Cinema Viewers (Upto Once in six months) 4667(16)

Mobile phone owned 14424(50)

*Figs in paranthesis is percent of total population in Kerala

The satellite penetration which is an indication of modernity is very high in Kerala with 90

percent (2.5 core) of the population owns a satellite connection. Advertisers prefer to use satellite

television for commercials and thus it provides enough information to the consumers from the

seller‟s side. Frequency modulation (FM) radio penetration is 24 percent in Kerala. FM radio

listenership is mainly among metro cities at present and estimated to grow fast in the coming years. It

is very interesting to note that the internet awareness is very high in Kerala with more than 85

percent of the population are aware of it. In a country where there is low internet penetration, more

than 50% of railway bookings and other government E-governance services (Akshaya Kendra) are

through internet. Therefore, it is not a surprising figure and an encouraging figure from the

perspective of Economics of information. One important change that emerges is the growth and

penetration of mobile owners in the population. Nearly 50 percent of the population in Kerala owns a

mobile in the year 2012. In India mobile seems overtaking, websites and even people at lower strata

could afford a smart phone at cheaper rates. Unlike, in the west the striking difference in India

especially Kerala, is the mobile usage and its penetration among people compared to usage of

desktops. Table 2, points out the most used consumer durables are Television, LPG stoves, Electric

Iron, Dining table, Pressure cooker, refrigerator, DVD , moped and telephone. Nearly, all the

population now can take the pride of owning Television. The penetration of TV, refrigerator, LPG,

Dining table, Pressure cooker and Kitchen sink are above 50 percent among cinema goers, mobile

owners, FM viewers, Publication readers and satellite viewers. It is now pretty clear that sellers can

reach the target population through various types of media comfortably. Most of the users exposed to

various media were observed as also as top users of consumer durables as well.

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International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

88 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

Table. 2. Top Consumer durables purchased by Media exposure

(Figs Per 1000 Population 2012

Cinema Mobile Internet

(Aware)

FM

Rea

ch

Publication

Read(atleas

t one)

Satellite

TV - Ownership 972 951 942 932 935 1000

LPG - Stove - Ownership 879 864 845 865 824 847

Electric Iron - Ownership 861 866 849 883 822 835

Dining Table - Ownership 827 781 769 801 741 759

Pressure Cooker - Ownership 783 759 729 709 715 725

Kitchen Sink - Ownership 599 648 601 625 591 598

Refrigerator - Ownership 464 497 470 472 424 474

DVD Player - Ownership 427 380 357 404 312 356

Moped / Electric Scooterette/

Scoote/ Motor Cycle

Ownership

343 321 285 263 238 283

Telephone(LandlineTerrestrial)

Wireless line - Ownership

217 233 231 235 201 232

Table 3, gives an indication of the penetration of FMCGs among various media users. FMCG

buyers are very high among various media users. This is quite contrary to what was seen in the case

of consumer durables. Almost all the top FMCG products such as Toilet soaps, Tea, Edible oil,

Tooth paste, Washing cakes, Tooth brush, Tooth paste, washing powder, Talcum powder and utensil

cleaners were noticed to register a penetration of over 90 percent among various media users. This

indicates that the FMCG market is highly connected and integrated with the usage of various media

and the sellers have ample opportunity to reach them to disseminate information.

Table 3. Top FMCG purchased by by Media Exposure

(Figs Per 1000 Population 2012)

FMCG products Cinema Mobile Internet FM

Reach

Publication

Read

Satellite

Toilet Soap (Ind) -

Usage

996 996 996 997 994 995

Tea - Purchased (6

mths)

994 994 991 995 992 991

Edible Oil - Purchased

(6 mths)

986 984 986 989 988 987

Tooth Paste - Purchased

(6 mths)

988 987 980 987 979 982

Washing Cakes / Bars -

Purchased (6 mths)

937 940 926 955 931 928

Toothbrush - Purchased

(6 mths)

952 931 927 893 917 922

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International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

89 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

Washing Powders /

Liquids - Purchased

(6 mths)

939 942 928 946 938 926

Talcum Powder -

Purchased (6 mths)

941 930 920 945 933 922

Utensil Cleaners -

Purchased (6 mths)

886 919 878 896 878 884

Biscuits - Purchased

(6 mths)

804 781 774 801 726 770

The following table 4 indicates the summary of usage of FMCG and CD in urban and rural

areas in Kerala. Average consumption of CD in rural area for top ten categories was found to be

570.7 in 1000 consumers, where as in urban area it was 637.34 per /1000 population. However, from

the table it is not possible to find out if there are any differences in urban and rural demand for

FMCGs and CDs.In order to test the differences, the data was first subjected to a normality test. The

results of this are given in Table 5. Since the values for Kolmogorov- Smirnov test is significant i.e.

p<.05 it indicates a non normality of the data. Hence it was decided to proceed with a non parametric

test instead of parametric test

Table 4. : Rural and Urban users by Type of goods (Top 10 Categories in each group)

Type of good

Rural Users per 1000

poulation

Urban Users Per 1000

population

Penetration of Consumer

Durable

Mean 570.79 637.34

Std. Deviation 257.937 248.408

Median 629.36 689.27

Penetration of FMCG's Mean 923.94 930.37

Std. Deviation 72.877 67.367

Median 928.27 938.42

Table 5 Results of Normality test by type of goods( Urban and Rural users per 1000

population)

Kolmogorov-Smirnova Shapiro-Wilk

Statistic df Sig. Statistic df Sig.

Rural users Per 1000

Population(FMCG &CD) 0.193 21 0.041 0.823 21 0.002

Urban Users Per 1000

population(FMCG&CD) 0.23 21 0.005 0.808 21 0.001

Page 8: Convergence of Demand in Consumer Goods - IJETMAS opened a cultural perspective of the consumption in societies world over which is very important in Kerala‟s context as well. Globalization

International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

90 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

This test attempts to find out if there is any significant difference in the demand for FMCG‟s

and Consumer durables between Urban and Rural Kerala in the year 2012. Top ten consumer

durables and FMCGs were selected to study whether an urban condition or a rural condition elicit a

better demand as measured by users and consumption. Data are medians unless otherwise stated. All

the 10 consumer durables selected showed an increase in urban area compared to rural condition. A

Wilcoxon signed rank test determined that there was a statistically significant median increase in the

demand (59.9 users) for the consumer durables in Urban area (median =689.27) compared to rural

area (median=629.36), z=2.8, p< .005 as given in figure 1. The median figure is shown in Table

4.With respect to FMCG‟s, out of 10 products, 7 showed improvement whereas 3 showed negative

impact. The Wilcoxon signed test conducted with top ten FMCGs determined that there is no

statistically significant median increase in the demand (10.14) for FMCGs in Urban area

(median=938.42) compared to Rural median demand (median=928.27) , z = 1.27, p > .203 as shown

in figure 2. The median figure is shown in Table 4. It is clear that the demand for top FMCG goods is

almost same in urban and rural area where as the demand for top Consumer durables are significantly

different for urban and rural areas. CDs are therefore more skewed towards urban area.

Figure 1: Related sample Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test for CDs

Page 9: Convergence of Demand in Consumer Goods - IJETMAS opened a cultural perspective of the consumption in societies world over which is very important in Kerala‟s context as well. Globalization

International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

91 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

Figure .2. Related sample Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test for FMCGs

5.2. Convergence of demand for Consumer goods 2008-2012

Having seen that there is no difference in the demand for the top FMCGs and Significance

difference in the demand for consumer durables between urban and rural area it is pertinent to

explore the consistency and homogeneity in each group which may enlighten us on the convergence

in demand. Moreover the pattern would give an indication of the tendency of the movement of CD

and FMCG demand in both urban and rural area in Kerala. Table 6, gives an account of three

statistics , the mean, Standard deviation and Coefficient of Variation (CV).

Table 6. Pattern of Penetration in Urban and Rural Kerala (Consumer durables vs. FMCG)

figs in per/000 population Type of

Consumer goods Urban Rural

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Penetration

of Consumer

Durable

Mean 533.3 585.2 605.5 635.4 624.7 356.8 416.0 499.7 557.

7

556.3

Std.

Deviation

223.9 234.7 254.1 255.4 268.0 189.6 207.9 246.3 267.

0

281.3

CV 42.0 40.1 42.0 40.2 42.9 53.1 50.0 49.3 47.9 50.6

Penetration

of FMCG's

Mean 909.6 939.9 935.9 939.0 930.4 867.8 895.3 911.3 925.

4

923.9

Std.

Deviation

74.7 66.5 77.0 66.0 67.4 117.4 127.4 103.6 86.3 72.9

CV 8.2 7.1 8.2 7.0 7.2 13.5 14.2 11.4 9.3 7.9

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International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

92 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

Figure 3. Convergence in Demand for FMCGs (rural vs. Urban)

The Figure 3 shows the trend of coefficient of variation over the years from 2008 to 2012 for

FMCGs. The demand for FMCG products in Urban and rural area is converging as is evident from

the line graph. From the figure it is clear that the coefficient of variation is as high as 13.5 in rural

areas in the year 2008 while the figure corresponding to this was found to be 8.2 in urban areas. In

about 5 year period, the whole scenario undergoes a change. The CV decreased to 7.9 in 2012 in

Rural from 13.5 in 2008 where as urban area registered decrease in the CV with 7.2 in 2012 from 8.2

in 2008. The main results of this analysis point out that the taste of urban and rural consumers was

found to be increasingly consistent and indicates a convergence of demand in urban and rural area in

respect of FMCGs. It is conspicuous that rural Kerala is catching up with the urban counterpart at a

faster rate.

Figure 4 Convergence of demand in Consumer Durables (Rural vs Urban)

Page 11: Convergence of Demand in Consumer Goods - IJETMAS opened a cultural perspective of the consumption in societies world over which is very important in Kerala‟s context as well. Globalization

International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences

www.ijetmas.com June 2015, Volume 3, Issue 6, ISSN 2349-4476

93 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

Figure 4, provides the trend in respect of the homogeneity over the period for CD. As shown,

the urban homogeneity for top CDs is more or less same, while there is an indication of increasing

homogeneity in the taste of rural consumers also in respect of CD. The higher CV compared to

FMCG is due to price factor and affordability in respect of CDs. The coefficient of variation

decreases from 53.1 in 2008 to 50.6 in 2012. It is obvious from the graph that the trend it towards a

convergence in consumer durables as well but at a slower pace.

6. DISCUSSION

This analysis began by showing the pattern of demand per 1000 population in Kerala for

FMCGs and CDs among various media users and in general. The most important aspect this research

sought to analyze was the comparison of demand for FMCG‟s and Consumer durables in Urban and

Rural area. No statistically significant difference found in respect of the demand for FMCGs

between urban and rural areas, where as urban area was found to be statistically significantly

contributing to more demand for Consumer durables. This result therefore may be seen as part of the

homogenization which begins with FMCGs in the first stage, and expected to follow in the case of

Consumer durables as well in the near future.This analysis further, addressed the question of

consistency in the tastes and convergence of demand by analyzing the coefficient of variations for

top ten categories of FMCGs and Consumer durables both in Urban and Rural area during the period

2008-2012 for the top ten product categories. There is a strong evidence to support the Convergence

of demand for FMCGs between rural and urban area. It appears that the rural demand for FMCGs

moved at a faster pace to catch up with the urban pattern. The homogenization of the needs and

wants in the FMCGs in both urban and rural area may be attributed to the increasing urbanization,

fast infrastructure development on the one side while the rural marketing strategies, media presence

and advertisements and cheap pricing on the other. However our findings do not lend a similar

strong convergence for consumer durables though the rural demand is moving towards the pattern of

urban but at a slower pace and as of now the difference is statistically significant. This may be due

to the fact that consumer durables are heavily priced and rural dealership cannot match urban at least

for some more time. Moreover, the income levels of urban people are better which mediates the

scope for faster convergence with rural demand.

To sum up, the liberalized economy had its effect on the consumer market in Kerala with

more globalized brands being launched and marketed frequently. The main point of this study is

however, conclude a trend towards homogenization of needs and wants as the demand for goods

FMCG and to lesser extend consumer durables indicated towards a convergence in both urban and

rural area. The findings have implications on the better usage of media vehicles and information

environment to manage the penetration of consumer goods in Kerala. There will not be any

spillovers in media spends due to this advantage. Another significance of the analysis is that, if the

demand and taste for FMCGs is getting homogenized, factors such as innovations and brand

signaling assumes critical role in enhancing the consumer welfare and product differentiation. Local

brands in product categories with better quality need licensing, quality certifications, communication

support from policy makers to compete with giants. The dimension of the conclusion is that, the

homogenization of demand and wants may lead to increasing monopolization of the market and

therefore this may be treated cautiously which will have welfare and managerial implications.

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94 Nebu John Abraham, Dr N J Saleena

Moreover, this throws challenge for distribution, marketing and packaging for rural consumers and

provides opportunity for mass production at cheaper price.

7. LIMITATION AND FUTURE SCOPE

The main limitation of the study is that it covers only the state of Kerala and limited to only

to 10 products in the list. Moreover, the data covers only a period of 2008-2012. The future

researchers can extend this to a inter- state comparison in India. Analysis could be done from the

year 2000 onwards to find out if the there is any significant pattern highlighting uniqueness of India

consumer market. However our study is an indication on the trend of homogenization of consumer

needs under liberalized economy pointing out the likely dominance of multinational corporations

with more budget spend on brands and innovations to expand and increase the market share which

has potential effects on local markets, small manufacturers and scope for product differentiation

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