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a0005 PaleotempestologyKam-biu Liu, Department of Geography andAnthropology, Louisiana State University, 227 Howe-Russell Geoscience Complex, Baton Rouge, LA 70803-4105 USA

ª 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

s0005 Introduction

p0005 Paleotempestology is an emerging field of sciencethat studies past tropical cyclone activity beyondthe period of instrumental observations, typicallyspanning the last several centuries to five millennia.Tropical cyclones are known by different names indifferent regions of the world – hurricanes in NorthAmerica, typhoons in the Northwest Pacific, andcyclones in South Asia and Australia. Here the termhurricanes is sometimes used interchangeably withall other types of tropical cyclones.

p0010 In the United States and other parts of the world,the instrumental record of tropical cyclone activity isessentially confined to the last 150 years. This recordis too short to fully capture the occurrence of the rarebut most destructive hurricanes – the ‘catastrophic’hurricanes of category 4 and 5 intensity according tothe Saffir-Simpson scale. Therefore, by providing along-term, empirical record of hurricane activityback to 5000 years, paleotempestology is useful forrevealing the spatial and temporal variability of

hurricane activity and deciphering its relationshipwith global climatic changes.

p0015Two main sources of data are available for recon-structing past hurricane activity to beyond the instru-mental period – geological proxy records, andhistorical documentary records. Therefore theyunderscore two major approaches to the study ofpaleotempestology – geological and archival.

s0010Geological Proxy Records

p0020A landfalling hurricane is an important geologicaland ecological agent that can severely impact coastallandforms, ecosystems, and sedimentary and hydro-logical processes on the coast (Figure 1). These geo-physical and ecological impacts may leave ageological record that can be deciphered by meansof proxy techniques. Several geological or biologicalproxies are potentially useful in reconstructing pasthurricane strikes, but so far the proxy that has pro-ven the most useful is overwash sand layers depositedin the sediments of coastal lakes and marshes (Liuand Fearn, 1993; Liu, 2004a; Donnelly and Webb,2004).

s0015Overwash Sand Layers in Coastal Lakes

p0025When a hurricane makes landfall, the strong onshorewinds, especially in the forward-right quadrant of theintense low-pressure system, generate a storm surgedirected towards the coast. Generally speaking, the

f0005 Figure 1 Environmental impacts of catastrophic hurricanes (modified from Liu, 2004a). A landfalling hurricane may cause a storm

surge that overtops beach barriers, resulting in the formation of an overwash fan and the deposition of a sand layer in the sediments of a

back-barrier lake or marsh. The strong wind may cause massive damage or mortality to trees, leaving a paleoecological record of

disturbance and succession, including the occurrence of post-hurricane fires. Heavy precipitation may cause flooding in the lowlands,

and soil erosion and landslide in the uplands. The �18O-depleted signal in the hurricane rains may be recorded in the cellulose of tree

rings and the calcium carbonate of speleothems and coral skeletons if it is not attenuated by hydrological processes.

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stronger the hurricane, the higher the storm surge.For intense hurricanes, the storm surge plus the waverun-up may overwash the coastal barrier, causingsand to be eroded from the beach or dunes anddeposited in the lake or marsh behind it.Stratigraphically, the overwash fan exists in theform of a sand layer, which is thickest near theshore and thins out towards the center of the lake(Liu and Fearn, 1993, 2000a; Liu, 2004a). In acoastal lake that had been subjected to repeated over-wash events in the past, the sediment stratigraphyshould contain multiple sand layers that contain astratigraphic record of intense hurricane strikes(Figure 2). These sand layers are composed of fineto coarse sand that is usually well-sorted, and haveabrupt contacts with the more organic, finer, anddarker sediments both above and below. Their thick-ness may range from a few mm to more than 10 cm(Figure 3). They can be identified either visually or bymeans of sedimentological techniques such as loss-on-ignition analysis of core samples (Liu and Fearn,2000a). A chronology of past overwash events orhurricane strikes can be established by means ofradiometric dating techniques such as radiocarbon(14C), lead-210 (210Pb), or cesium-137 (137Cs) dat-ing, which may be supplemented by using strati-graphic markers such as pollen and lead pollutants(Donnelly and Webb, 2004). For any particular loca-tion, the return period of hurricanes of a specificintensity category can be calculated by tallying upthe number of events occurring over a given periodof time.

p0030The intensity of the paleohurricanes may be muchharder to infer from the proxy record than theirfrequencies. As a first approximation, it can beassumed that stronger hurricanes tend to producehigher storm surges and thus more extensive over-wash fans. Therefore, within the same core, sandlayer thickness can be used as a rough indicator ofstorm intensity (Figure 4). The sedimentary impact ofrecent hurricanes of known intensity can be used as amodern analog for calibrating the intensity estimateof paleohurricanes. For example, based on sediment-stratigraphic evidence that the overwash sand layerdeposited by Hurricane Frederic, a category 3 hurri-cane that struck Alabama in 1979, was only confinedto the nearshore sediments, Liu and Fearn (1993)inferred that older sand layers that occurred incores taken from the center of Lake Shelby (wherethe Frederic sand layer was absent) must have beendeposited by prehistoric hurricanes of category 4 or 5intensity. Coastal lakes from Alabama and northwes-tern Florida have yielded proxy records of cata-strophic (category 4 and 5) hurricane strikes thatspan the last 5000 years (Liu and Fearn, 1993,2000a).

Over wash

Beachand Dunes

A B

core

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L A K E

f0010 Figure 2 Hypothetical pattern of sand-layer deposition in a

coastal lake subjected to repeated storm overwash events in the

past. The overwash sand layers are thicker near the sand barrier

and become thinner towards the lake center. A core taken from

site B will contain more and thicker sand layers than one taken

from site C. A core taken from site A, however, may consist of all

sand without discrete layers (after Liu, 2004a).

50Depth (cm) Depth (cm)

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f0015Figure 3 Photograph of three prominent sand layers in the 50–

78 cm segment of core 9 from Western Lake, northwestern

Florida, and the corresponding water and organic matter content

curves determined by loss-on-ignition. Radiocarbon dates are on

the right (after Liu and Fearn, 2000a).

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s0020 Proxy Records from Coastal Marshes

p0035 The same principle and research methods can beapplied to coastal back-barrier marshes for generat-ing proxy records of past hurricane strikes (Donnellyand Webb, 2004; Donnelly et al., 2001a, 2001b,2004). These back-barrier marshes are typicallypeat-accumulating environments situated behind bar-rier beaches. As in coastal lakes, overtopping of thebarrier beach by storm surge will lead to the forma-tion of an overwash fan behind the barrier, whichwill be expressed stratigraphically as a sand layer

sandwiched between marsh peat (Figure 5). If thebarrier beach is breached by the storm surge toform an inlet, a large flood-tidal delta may be formedacross the back-barrier marsh, which may evenextend into the lagoon or bay behind it (Donnellyand Webb, 2004). Like overwash sand layers, theseflood-tidal delta deposits are usually composed offine to coarse sand with a sharp contact with theunderlying peat. But unlike overwash sand, themean grain-size of these flood-tidal delta depositstends to be more spatially variable, and they often

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f0020 Figure 4 Model showing the positive relationship among hurricane intensities, extent of overwash fans, and thickness of sand layers in

sediment cores (after Liu and Fearn, 2000a). Top: Hypothetical sedimentary stratigraphies of eleven cores (#1–11) taken from different

parts of a lake impacted by intense hurricanes and associated overwash events six times during the past 3000 years. Thick and thin sand

layers are represented by cross-shaded bands and dotted lines, respectively. Bottom: Hypothetical pattern of overwash sand deposition

in the lake where the eleven cores were taken. Solid, dotted, or dashed lines inside the lake denote the horizontal extents of the six

overwash fans (labeled A-4–F) corresponding to the six hurricane strikes and overwash events (arrows). Thicknesses of the arrows are

proportional to the intensity of the hurricanes according to the Saffir-Simpson scale, the latter also designated by the circled number

below each arrow. Numbered black dots (#1-4–11) represent cores taken from the lake.

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Fcontains ripple laminations, detrital organic laminae,shell hash layers, and disarticulated shells (Donnellyand Webb, 2004).

p0040 Because back-barrier marshes are formed only atsea level, the accumulation of the marsh peat and thepreservation of the overwash deposits or the flood-tidal delta deposits it embeds are sensitive to sea-levelchanges. Along a transgressive coast like that of thenortheastern United States, the barrier systemsincluding the back-barrier marshes have been

migrating landward during the late-Holocene. Thisimplies that, as the distance between the beach bar-rier and the coring site increases with time since thepresent, it would have taken stronger hurricanes todeposit the same material in the older sand layersthan in the younger sand layers (Figure 6).Compared with coastal lakes, back-barrier marshestend to have higher sedimentation rates. Therefore,back-barrier marshes may permit high-resolutionreconstruction of historical hurricane strikes, but

(A)

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f0025 Figure 5 Photographs of overwash sand layers in back-barrier marsh sediments. (A) Three sand layers near the top of a core from

Little Harbor Marsh, Massachusetts, deposited by three historic hurricanes: Bob (1991), Carol (1954), and the 1938 Hurricane. (B) Two

sand layers in cores taken from Succotash Marsh, Rhode Island, deposited by Hurricane Carol (1954) and the 1938 Hurricane. (C) Two

sand layers deposited by the same hurricanes are exposed in a stratigraphic section at Barn Island Marsh, Connecticut (after Donnelly

and Webb, 2004).

barrier beach

backbarrier marshoverwash fan

lagoon

upland

terminal lobes

flood tidel delta

f0030 Figure 6 Cross-section of conceptual model of overwash deposition and the landward migration of the barrier-marsh system in a

regime of rising sea level. Overwash fans are preserved as sea level rises and they are covered with marsh deposits. A flood-tidal delta

was formed at an earlier time when an inlet was cut through the beach barrier (after Donnelly and Webb, 2004).

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the length of their sedimentary record may beshorter. Proxy records obtained from back-barriermarshes in Rhode Island and New Jersey only extendback to approximately 700 years (Donnelly et al.,2001a, 2001b).

p0045 Estuarine or deltaic marshes formed near themouth of major rivers along the Gulf of Mexicocoast can also provide proxy records of past hurri-cane strikes (Liu and Fearn, 2000b). A beach barriermay or may not be present, but these marshes areinundated by the storm surge during an intense hur-ricane strike. Stormy waves and the storm surge maystir up the silt and mud from the bottom of theadjacent bays, and a layer of lagoonal mud will bedeposited on the marsh surface, forming a stormdeposit. This storm deposit may consist of sand,silt, or clay, depending on the hydrodynamic condi-tions of the storm surge and the sediment supply.This layer may also be recognized by the presenceof marine microfossils such as dinoflagellates andforaminifera derived from the bay bottom. Becauseof their high sedimentation rates, proxy records span-ning 5000–6000 years have been obtained from theseestuarine/deltaic marshes in Louisiana andMississippi (Liu and Fearn, 2001a; Liu, 2004a).

s0025 Paleohurricane Activity and Global ClimateChanges

p0050 Since the early 1990s, about three dozen lake ormarsh sites along the U.S. Gulf coast and Atlanticcoast have been investigated for paleotempestology(Liu, 2004a), but only a handful with well-dated andwell-validated proxy records have been published, ofwhich only a few span up to 5000 years. Proxyrecords from the Gulf of Mexico coast have revealedthat hurricane activity has varied on the millennialtime scale, with a relatively quiet period during thepast 1000 years preceded by a hyperactive periodabout 1000 to 3800 years ago (Liu, 2004a)(Figure 7). Liu and Fearn (2000a) proposed the‘Bermuda High hypothesis’, which explains this mil-lennial-scale variation in hurricane activity observedalong the Gulf coast in terms of long-term shifts inthe position of the Bermuda High, the subtropicalanticyclone situated over the western North AtlanticOcean. According to this hypothesis, a southwest-ward shift of the Bermuda High would steer morehurricanes towards the Gulf coast, whereas a north-eastward shift would steer more hurricanes towardsthe Atlantic coast (Figure 8). Large-scale changes inthe North Atlantic circulation system from 4000–3000 years ago, which resulted in a southwestwardshift of the Bermuda High, might have led to theoccurrence of the hyperactive period along the Gulf

coast (Liu and Fearn, 2000a). This hypothesis impliesan anti-phase relationship between the Gulf coastand the Atlantic coast. Such an inverse relationshipis supported by a statistical analysis that links thehistorical records of hurricane activity from theGulf and Atlantic coasts with the North AtlanticOscillation (NAO), which is related to the positionof the Bermuda High (Elsner et al., 2000).Paleoclimatic records from North America and adja-cent regions are consistent with the scenario of asouthwestward shift in the Bermuda High during4000–3000 year ago (Liu and Fearn, 2000a). Apaleohurricane proxy record from South Carolinaon the Atlantic coast also seems to support theBermuda High hypothesis (Scott et al., 2003).

Pearl RiverMarsh(LA)

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WesternLake(FL)

f0035Figure 7 Chronostratigraphic patterns of overwash sand layers

(horizontal bars) representing catastrophic hurricane strikes over

the last 4500 years documented at four sites along the Gulf coast

from west to east: Pearl River Marsh (Louisiana), Pascagoula

Marsh (Mississippi), Lake Shelby (Alabama), Western Lake

(Florida) (after Liu, 2004a). The clustering of events between

approximately 1000 and 3400 14C years BP suggests the occur-

rence of a hyperactive period bracketed by relatively quiet periods.

Each site was directly struck by catastrophic hurricanes 9 to 12

times during the last 3400 14C years (or 3800 calendar years),

suggesting a return period of approximately 350 years.

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s0030 Supplementary Proxies

p0055 In addition to overwash sand layers, other biostrati-graphic or geochemical indicators can be used asproxies or supplementary evidence for reconstructingpast hurricane strikes from coastal sedimentaryarchives. Opal phytoliths (microscopic silica bodiesformed in or between plant cells) associated with thesand layers can be used to ascertain the overwashorigin of the sand layers, because topsoil or sedimentsamples from sand dunes (from which the overwashsand is derived) and other coastal depositional envir-onments contain different phytolith assemblages (Luand Liu, 2005). The intrusion of seawater into

otherwise oligohaline or brackish coastal lakes ormarshes during overwash or storm surge processeswill introduce marine microorganisms and changethe salinity of these coastal ecosystems. Therefore,marine microfossils such as foraminifera, dinoflagel-lates, and pelagic diatoms can be used as proxies forpast hurricane impacts (Hippensteel and Martin,1999; Collins et al., 1999; Scott et al., 2003; Liuet al., 2003). Similarly, the pollen and charcoal con-tents in these coastal sediment cores can serve assupplementary proxies to decipher the ecologicalimpacts of past hurricane strikes on coastal ecosys-tems, including the occurrence of post-hurricanewildfires (Liu et al., 2003). In addition, environmen-tal impacts of past hurricane strikes can be studied athigh resolution by analyzing the stratigraphic varia-tions in geochemistry, mineralogy, and grain size incoastal lake sediment cores (Donnelly, 2005).

s0035Stable Isotopes in Tree Rings, Stalagmites,and Corals

p0060While sediments from coastal lakes and marshes haveproven to be the most useful data archive in paleo-tempestology, other natural archives and proxieshave recently been explored. In Australia, chronos-tratigraphic series of shelly beach ridges have beeninterpreted as proxy records of tropical cyclonestrikes during the late Holocene (Nott and Hayne,2001; Hayne and Chappell, 2001). Another new andpromising proxy is the stable-isotopic signal pre-served in the cellulose of tree rings (Miller et al.,2003), the calcium carbonate of stalagmites in lime-stone caves (Frappier et al., in review), or the arago-nitic skeletons of reef corals (Cohen, 2001). Due tointense convection and the fractionation process,rainwater produced by hurricanes has a highlydepleted oxygen isotopic signal (i.e., more negative�18O values) compared with that of low-latitudethunderstorms (Lawrence and Gedzelman, 1996).After a hurricane strike, this isotopically depletedsignal from the intense hurricane rains may persistin surface or soil water for several weeks before it isattenuated, and may be incorporated into the growthrings of trees, speleothems in limestone caves, andreef corals in coastal lagoons. A key to applying the�18O proxy in paloetempestology lies in the ability tosample these annually-banded archives and to detectthe isotopically depleted signals at sub-seasonal reso-lutions. So far, some progress has been made indemonstrating the potential of using these newarchives in developing high-resolution proxy recordsof hurricane activity during the past decades to a fewcenturies.

73°N

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f0040 Figure 8 Postulated changes in paleoclimatic conditions and in

the position of the Bermuda High around 6000 years BP (A) and

3000 years BP (B) and their impacts on the predominant tracks of

catastrophic hurricanes (after Liu and Fearn, 2000a). Top: A more

northeasterly position of the Bermuda High around 6000 years

ago would have resulted in more landfalls on the Atlantic coast.

Bottom: A shift of the Bermuda High to a more southeasterly

position near the Caribbean around 3000 years ago probably

steered more catastrophic hurricanes to hit the Gulf coast.

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s0040 Historical Documentary Records

p0065 For the historical period during which writtenrecords are available, information about past tropicalcyclone activity can be extracted from documentarysources derived from books or other data archives.The length of time covered by these documentaryrecords varies from one region of the world toanother, but rarely exceeds a few hundred to a thou-sand years. Though comparatively short in time span,an advantage of these historical documentary recordsover the geological proxy data is that they usuallyhave very high temporal resolution and precision,typically allowing reconstruction to the year,month, and even day of the event. Where both doc-umentary and geological proxy records are available,these two sources of data can complement each otherand provide powerful means of cross-validation anddata calibration.

s0045 U.S. Data Sources and Reconstructions

p0070 For the Atlantic Basin including the United States,six-hourly data on the positions and intensities (cen-tral pressures and wind speeds) of all known hurri-canes and tropical storms for the past century andhalf since 1851 are available from the NationalHurricane Center’s North Atlantic hurricane data-base, or HURDAT 2 (Landsea et al., 2004). For thehistorical period from the sixteenth through to thenineteenth century, information about hurricaneactivity largely comes from documentary sourcesincluding newspapers, plantation diaries, and someinstrumental weather records (Mock, 2004). Severalmajor inventories of historical hurricanes affectingthe United States and the Atlantic Basin (including

the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico region) have beencompiled (Ludlam, 1963; Fernandez-Partagas andDiaz, 1996). These documentary data, often narra-tive and spatially uneven, can be quantified and sta-tistically analyzed to reveal the frequency patterns ofhurricane strikes for selected regions. For example, a223-year time series of tropical cyclone frequenciesfor South Carolina from AD 1778 to 2000 – thelongest such continuous time series in the UnitedStates, has been produced (Mock, 2004). This timeseries reveals that two periods of unprecedented, veryactive tropical cyclone activity occurred in the 1830sand from 1880 to 1910 (Figure 9). The SouthCarolina frequency pattern seems to be broadly simi-lar to those compiled for some Caribbean regions.

s0050Spanish and British Archives

p0075For the Caribbean region, documentary evidencederived from the above-mentioned data sources inthe United States or from local newspapers, diaries,or annals in the Caribbean has been used to compileinventories of hurricane activity for the past fivecenturies (Millas, 1968; Chenoweth, 2003).However, two vast, though yet relatively unexplored,sources of documentary data are available for recon-structing the frequency patterns of historical hurri-cane activity – Spanish archives and British archives(Garcia Herrera et al., 2004). The Spanish archivesconsist of millions of official documents recording allaspects of daily life in the Spanish colonies in theAmericas from the Columbian contact to the nine-teenth century. Most of these colonial documents arepreserved in the Archivo General de Indias (A.G.I.) inSeville, and several other archives in Madrid andValladolid. The British archives, mainly starting

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f0045 Figure 9 Time series of tropical cyclones affecting Charleston, South Carolina, from AD 1778 to 2000, reconstructed from local

newspapers, plantation diaries, and early instrumental records (after Mock, 2004). The vertical bars represent annual frequencies (right

axis), and the continuous line represents the 5-year running mean (left axis).

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Fonly in the mid-seventeenth century and covering ashorter time span than their Spanish counterparts,principally consist of mariners’ logbooks kept onboard Royal Navy ships during the period ofEnglish colonization of the Caribbean. Most of thelogbooks are archived in the Public Records Office(PRO) and the National Maritime Museum (NMM)in London. The potential of these voluminousSpanish and British archives as a rich data sourcefor paleotempestology is high, but work has onlybegun to fully exploit this potential due to the vastamount of documents contained in them (GarciaHerrera et al., 2004). A reconstruction of Caribbeanhurricane and storm activity for the period AD 1500–1900 using the Spanish archives shows two activeperiods in the sixteenth and the eighteenth centuryseparated by a relatively inactive period in the seven-teenth century, with a peak in activity during 1766–1780 (Garcia Herrera et al., 2005) (Figure 10).

s0055 Chinese Documentary Records andGuangdong Typhoon Time-series

p0080 By far the longest documentary record of tropicalcyclone activity can be found in China, where thehistorical record of typhoon landfalls spans morethan 1000 years. Abundant information on typhoonlandfalls can be found in the official histories com-missioned by the central imperial government (zheng

shi), Veritable Records (shi lu) of the Emperor’s dailyactivities, semi-official local gazettes (fang zhi) writ-ten by scholars at the county, district, or provinciallevel, and unofficial literary works such as personaldiaries, travel logbooks, and poems (Louie and Liu,2004). These Chinese historical sources reveal thatthe term jufeng was coined as early as AD 470 todesignate typhoon (‘‘a wind that comes in all fourdirections’’) as a specific meteorological phenomenonthat is distinct from other kinds of storms (Louie andLiu, 2003). A typhoon that struck the ShandongPeninsula in eastern China in AD 816 is probablythe earliest recorded tropical cyclone landfall in theworld (Louie and Liu, 2003).

p0085Among the four sources of Chinese documentarydata mentioned above, the local gazettes or fang zhi,especially those kept by coastal counties in southernand eastern China, are the richest data source forhistorical typhoon landfalls. For the majority ofcounties in China, there is at least one volume ofcounty gazette that is accessible in a public libraryin China or overseas. Liu et al. (2001) have produceda 935-year time series of typhoon landfalls for theGuangdong Province of southern China spanning theperiod from AD 975 to 1909 based on data extractedfrom local gazettes (Figure 11). This millennial-longtropical cyclone time series – the longest in the world –reveals an approximately 50-year periodicity that may

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f0050 Figure 10 Time series of hurricanes (top) and storms (bottom) occurring in the Caribbean basin from the sixteenth to the nineteenth

century, reconstructed from Spanish documentary evidence preserved in the Archivo General de Indias (A.G.I.). The term storm refers to

any event of excessive wind that lacks a clear indication of the occurrence of a shift in wind direction typically associated with the vortex

of a hurricane. This category may include, among others, less intense tropical storms, extratropical storms, squall lines, and strong

frontal passage episodes (after Garcia Herrera et al., 2005).

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be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)(Liu et al., 2001). The data also show two prominentpeaks in Guangdong typhoon activity occurring at AD1660–1680 and AD 1850–1880. Remarkably, thesetwo typhoon maxima coincide with two of the coldestand driest episodes in northern and central Chinaduring the Little Ice Age (Figure 12). It was hypothe-sized that the apparent increase in typhoon activity inGuangdong during these cold episodes was caused bya southward displacement of the storm tracks asso-ciated with an intensification of the westerlies and asouthward shift of the subtropical high-pressure sys-tem, resulting in more typhoons making landfall inGuangdong, with fewer striking the coastal provincesfurther north (Liu et al., 2001). Statistical analysis ofmodern and historical typhoon data from the westernPacific suggests that more frequent occurrence of LaNina conditions may also have caused a change in thepredominant storm tracks, resulting in more typhoonsmoving straightly westward to hit Guangdong insteadof recurving northwest to hit Japan (Elsner and Liu,2003).

s0060 Societal Relevance of Paleotempestology

p0090 Paleotempestology is an important component ofQuaternary paleoclimatology because it sheds lighton the temporal and spatial variability patterns oftropical cyclone activity at centennial to millennialtime scales, and permits a better understanding ofhow this variability may be linked to global climatechanges during the late-Holocene. But in addition,paleotempestology also has important practicalapplications to society. For any particular coastallocation, uncertainty about the hurricane risk is exa-cerbated by the lack of empirical data on the return

period of the rare but most extreme hurricanes. Forexample, it is impossible to determine, based on thehistorical record, whether landfall by a category 5hurricane such as Andrew or Camille in New Orleansis a 100-year or 500-year event, because NewOrleans has not been directly hit by a catastrophichurricane during the past 150 years.Paleotempestology can quantify that uncertainty bygenerating geological proxy records of catastrophichurricane strikes that span up to 5000 years, whichcan be translated into an estimate of hurricane returnperiods and landfall probabilities (Figure 13). Proxyrecords from five sites along the Gulf coast haveshown that each site was directly struck by cata-strophic hurricanes about 9–12 times during the last3800 years, implying a return period of approxi-mately 350 years, or a landfall probability of about0.3% per year (Liu, 2004a) (Figure 7). This empiricalestimate, which cannot be derived without paleotem-pestology, is of vital importance for risk assessors,emergency management agencies, regional planners,civil engineers, and insurance companies (Liu,2004b).

s0065Research Needs and Future ResearchDirections

p0095Paleotempestology is a relatively young science thatstarted in the early 1990s (Liu and Fearn, 1993). Theterm paleotempestology was coined by Kerry Emanuelat the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in1998. It has since developed significantly in scope, intheory and methods, and in the number of practi-tioners. The following research needs and directionscan be envisioned in the near future.

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f0055 Figure 11 Time series of typhoons striking Guangdong Province, southern China, from AD 1000 to 1909, reconstructed from Chinese

local gazette (fang zhi) records. The vertical bars represent annual frequencies, and the continuous line represents the 21-year running

mean (after Liu et al., 2001).

Paleotempestology 9

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1. Expansion of geographical coverage and spatialdata network – Early proxy work in paleotempestol-ogy started in the Gulf of Mexico coast, but morerecently proxy records have been obtained from the

U.S. Atlantic coast, the Caribbean region, andAustralia. However, only a handful of records havebeen published. There is a strong need for more well-validated and well-dated proxy records from theUnited States and the Caribbean coasts, and fornew proxy records in other tropical cyclone-proneregions of the world, especially China, Japan, andSouth and Southeast Asia.

2. Development of new proxies and archives – Apromising research direction in paleotempestologyinvolves the development of multi-proxy techniquesin detecting the geophysical and ecological impacts ofpast hurricanes. To date, the proxy that has provedmost effective in paleotempestology is the overwashsediments preserved in coastal lakes and marshes.Future methodological advances will include thedevelopment of new proxies such as stable isotopicsignals in tree rings, speleothems, and corals.

3. Coupling of geological and documentaryarchives – The voluminous documentary records inthe Spanish, British, and Chinese archives have barelybeen exploited for the reconstruction of tropicalcyclone activities during the past centuries. Muchmore needs to be done. Wherever both geologicaland documentary records exist, they should be inte-grated for data calibration and comparison.

4. Improved calibration of proxy records withmodern analog studies – While the frequency ofpast hurricane strikes can be estimated by enumerat-ing the overwash sand layers in a core, the recon-struction of paleohurricane intensity is a morechallenging task in paleotempestology. Sand layerthickness remains the best indicator of hurricaneintensity, but the calibration of the relationshipbetween these two parameters can be improved bybetter understanding of the geophysical impacts andsedimentological signatures of modern hurricanes ofknown intensities. For example, recent intense hurri-canes such as Camille, Andrew, Hugo, Ivan, andKatrina can be used as modern analogs to aidproxy-based paleohurricane intensity reconstruc-tions.

5. Integration of proxy data with modeling results –Another approach in improving the intensity estimatefor paleohurricanes from proxy data is by means ofcomputer modeling experiments. Storm surge model-ing can simulate the overwash processes under variousboundary conditions with regard to hurricane inten-sity, oceanographic response, and coastal terrain char-acteristics. These modeling results can be integratedwith the proxy record to help validate the intensityestimates.

6. Statistical applications in paleotempestology –When coupled with the historical hurricane record,proxy data can improve our estimates of the

1000

Phenological temperatures

(A)

(B)

(C)

(D)

(E)

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Winter temperaturein the yangtze Valley

Countries affectedby drought

Dust rain frequency

April-July reconstructedprecipitation by tree rings

Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly

Typhoon Affecting Guangdong

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1600 1800 2000

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f0060 Figure 12 Comparison between (G) the Guangdong typhoon

time series (21-year running mean) with other paleoclimatic time

series from China and the northern hemisphere for the last mil-

lennium: (A) phenologically derived temperature in China, (B)

winter temperature in the lower Yangtze river valley, (C) number

of Chinese counties affected by drought, (D) frequency of dust

rains in China, (E) tree-ring-based reconstruction of April-to-July

precipitation in Huashan, north-central China, (F) northern hemi-

sphere temperature anomaly derived from a variety of paleocli-

matic data sources (after Liu et al., 2001). The two peaks in

Guangdong typhoon activity in AD 1660–1680 and 1850–1880

correspond with two of the coldest and driest episodes in central

and northern China during the Little Ice Age.

10 Paleotempestology

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Fhurricane risk in a region by providing a longer,though chronologically less precise, record of pastevents, especially the extreme events. These historicaland proxy data can be used in the statistical modelingof wind speed exceedance probabilities. Advancedstatistical techniques such as Bayesian analysis andextreme value theory can be applied to the modernand proxy data to reduce the uncertainty of errorestimates and to improve the assessment of hurricanerisks along the coast. Work has just begun in thisresearch direction in paleotempestology.

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Author’s Contact Information

AU1 Please check the postal address.>Professor Kam-biu LiuDept of Geography and AnthropologyLouisiana State UniversityBaton Rouge, LA 70803USA

Abstract: This chapter provides an overview of paleotempestology, an emerging field of sciencethat studies past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological or archival techniques. Overwashsand layers preserved in the sediments of coastal lakes and marshes can provide proxy evidence ofpaleohurricane landfalls. Other promising proxies and archives include storm-generated beachridges, marine microfossils, pollen, phytoliths, and stable isotopic signals recorded in tree rings,speleothems, and reef corals. Historical documentary evidence of hurricane and typhoon activitiesduring the past several centuries can be obtained from newspapers, plantation diaries, and earlyinstrumental records in the U.S. mariners’ logbooks in British archives, colonial records in Spanisharchives, and official histories, unofficial literature, and local gazettes in China. Paleotempestolo-gical studies from the United States and Caribbean coasts and China have revealed a pattern ofmillennial- to century-scale variations in tropical cyclone activities that can be related to globaland regional climate changes during the late-Holocene.

Keywords: archival techniques, Bermuda High hypothesis, coastal lakes and marshes, geologicalproxy records, Gulf of Mexico coast historical documentary records, hurricanes, landfall prob-ability, overwash sand layers, paleohurricanes, proxies, tropical cyclones, typhoons

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