CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories...

37
CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD COMPUTERS AND GOVERNANCE IN U. S. TRUCKING* GEORGE P. BAKER AND THOMAS N. HUBBARD We investigate how contractual incompleteness affects asset ownership in trucking by examining cross-sectional patterns in truck ownership and how truck ownership has changed with the diffusion of on-board computers (OBCs). We find that driver ownership of trucks is greater for long than short hauls, and when hauls require equipment for which demands are unidirectional rather than bidirectional. We then find that driver ownership decreases with OBC adop- tion, particularly for longer hauls. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that truck ownership reflects trade-offs between driving incentives and bargaining costs, and indicate that improvements in the contracting environment have led to less independent contracting and larger firms. I. INTRODUCTION What determines who owns assets in the economy? This question, which goes back at least as far as Coase [1937], is central to understanding firms’ boundaries. The theoretical work since Coase has highlighted a number of factors, including asset specificity, noncontractible investments, and multitasking prob- lems, as important in the determination of asset ownership. 1 These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership hinges on the contracting environment. In this paper we examine the relationship between asset ownership and the contracting environment in the United States trucking industry. Using de- tailed truck-level data, we investigate what determines whether drivers own the trucks they operate, and how ownership patterns change as the contracting environment changes. We develop an analytic framework that draws heavily on the property rights theories of Grossman and Hart [1986] and Hart and Moore [1990]. This framework highlights how contractual incompleteness can affect the comparative advantage of using an owner-operator for a haul relative to a company driver. We pro- pose that an important benefit of having the driver own the truck * We would like to thank Gary Chamberlain, Robert Gibbons, Oliver Hart, Francine Lafontaine, Paul Oyer, Brian Silverman, Margaret Slade, Jerry Zim- merman, anonymous referees, and many seminar participants for comments. We also thank Michael Crum and several dispatchers and drivers for useful discus- sions. We gratefully acknowledge support from NSF grant SES-9975413 and the Harvard Business School Division of Research. 1. See Klein, Crawford, and Alchian [1978], Williamson [1975, 1985], Gross- man and Hart [1986], Holmstrom and Milgrom [1994], and many others. © 2004 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 2004 1443

Transcript of CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories...

Page 1: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP ON-BOARDCOMPUTERS AND GOVERNANCE IN U S TRUCKING

GEORGE P BAKER AND THOMAS N HUBBARD

We investigate how contractual incompleteness affects asset ownership intrucking by examining cross-sectional patterns in truck ownership and how truckownership has changed with the diffusion of on-board computers (OBCs) We findthat driver ownership of trucks is greater for long than short hauls and whenhauls require equipment for which demands are unidirectional rather thanbidirectional We then find that driver ownership decreases with OBC adop-tion particularly for longer hauls These results are consistent with thehypothesis that truck ownership reflects trade-offs between driving incentivesand bargaining costs and indicate that improvements in the contractingenvironment have led to less independent contracting and larger firms

I INTRODUCTION

What determines who owns assets in the economy Thisquestion which goes back at least as far as Coase [1937] iscentral to understanding firmsrsquo boundaries The theoretical worksince Coase has highlighted a number of factors including assetspecificity noncontractible investments and multitasking prob-lems as important in the determination of asset ownership1

These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownershiphinges on the contracting environment In this paper we examinethe relationship between asset ownership and the contractingenvironment in the United States trucking industry Using de-tailed truck-level data we investigate what determines whetherdrivers own the trucks they operate and how ownership patternschange as the contracting environment changes

We develop an analytic framework that draws heavily on theproperty rights theories of Grossman and Hart [1986] and Hartand Moore [1990] This framework highlights how contractualincompleteness can affect the comparative advantage of using anowner-operator for a haul relative to a company driver We pro-pose that an important benefit of having the driver own the truck

We would like to thank Gary Chamberlain Robert Gibbons Oliver HartFrancine Lafontaine Paul Oyer Brian Silverman Margaret Slade Jerry Zim-merman anonymous referees and many seminar participants for comments Wealso thank Michael Crum and several dispatchers and drivers for useful discus-sions We gratefully acknowledge support from NSF grant SES-9975413 and theHarvard Business School Division of Research

1 See Klein Crawford and Alchian [1978] Williamson [1975 1985] Gross-man and Hart [1986] Holmstrom and Milgrom [1994] and many others

copy 2004 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnologyThe Quarterly Journal of Economics November 2004

1443

is that the driver drives in ways that better preserve the truckrsquosvalue However an important drawback is that when residualrights of control over the truck are allocated to the driver theindividual responsible for planning how trucks should be usedmdashthe dispatchermdashno longer has critical control rights over thetruck This leads to inefficiencies associated with bargaining overthe truckrsquos use for example dispatchers may underinvest infinding good ldquobackhaulsrdquo (return trips) for trucks or drivers mayengage in inefficient rent-seeking behavior This analytic frame-work generates empirical propositions that allow us to examineboth sides of the trade-off that we propose

Our empirical analysis uses truck-level data from the Cen-susrsquo 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys We firstshow that driver ownership of trucks is greater for longer haulsand when hauls require equipment for which demands are uni-directional (ie backhauls are unlikely) rather than bidirec-tional We then develop an empirical strategy that allows us toexamine how a new monitoring technology (on-board computersor ldquoOBCsrdquo) that becomes available in the middle of our sampleperiod affects ownership patterns We show that driver owner-ship of trucks decreases with OBC adoption and that this rela-tionship is strongest for long hauls where the monitoring tech-nology is the most valuable Finally we test whether OBCschange how drivers drive by assessing the fuel economy of trucksdriven by company drivers and owner-operators with and withoutOBCs We find that while fuel economy is better for trucks withOBCs than without them this difference is greater for companydrivers than owner-operators

Overall our evidence supports our analytic framework andsuggests that contractual improvements have led to more inte-grated asset ownership in trucking especially in circumstanceswhere allocating control rights to drivers is costly Contractualimprovements have led carriers to subcontract less of their haulsto owner-operators and thus have led to larger more integratedfirms

This paper extends several strains of the empirical literatureon organizations2 In particular it is closely related to Baker and

2 Other recent work that investigates organizational issues in truckingincludes Chakraborty and Kazarosian [1999] Hubbard [2000 2001] Lafontaineand Masten [2002] and Nickerson and Silverman [2003] See Brickley and Dark[1987] Lafontaine [1992] and Shepard [1993] for evidence on contractibility andownership in franchising and Brynjolffson and Hitt [1997] and citations for

1444 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Hubbard [2003] which examines relationships between OBCadoption and shippersrsquo make-or-buy decision ie whether ship-pers use a truck from their private fleet for a haul or outsourcetheir shipping needs to for-hire carriers In this companion piecewe propose a model in which shipper ownership of trucks is afunction of the importance of service quality to a particular haulWe ignore service issues in this paper because we do not believethem to be relevant to the margin we examine As we explain inthe other paper the inefficiencies associated with using owner-operators for hauls involving service tasks (such as sorting cargo)are so large that they should not be used on these types of haulsIn practice owner-operators are rarely used for hauls with sig-nificant service requirements3

An outline of the rest of the paper follows In Section II wedescribe the production process and contracting environmenthighlighting how the contracting environment affects driver in-centives We then discuss asset ownership and build the analyticframework that generates the hypotheses to be tested In SectionIII we describe the data and present cross-sectional patterns withrespect to ownership and OBC use In Section IV we present andinterpret our main results estimates of relationships betweenOBC adoption and organizational change In Section V wepresent some evidence of OBCsrsquo incentive effects by examiningrelationships between OBC use and fuel economy In Section VIwe conclude

II INCENTIVE PROBLEMS AND ASSET OWNERSHIP IN TRUCKING

Production in trucking involves the movement of goodsHauls differ along many dimensions and the type of cargo deter-mines what kind of trailer can be used4 Packaged goods that donot require refrigeration can be hauled in nonrefrigerated vans

evidence on relationships between information technology adoption and organi-zational form

3 Driver ownership is an organizational option for all hauls including thosewhere shippers choose instead to use trucks from their internal fleet Althoughmany hauls for which shippers choose to use private fleets are inframarginalldquocompany driverrdquo hauls excluding them from the empirical analysis would intro-duce sample selection problems Like in our companion piece our empiricalanalysis therefore uses data from all tractor-trailers in the TIUS (subject to someminor restrictions described later)

4 This is not the only variation in equipment requirements that can affectorganizational form Nickerson and Silverman [2003] argue that asset specificity(in the form of interactions between drive-train configurations and haul charac-

1445CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the most common class of trailer but other goods require trailersthat are more specialized to the specific good For example logsand vehicles are hauled on trailers that have special features thatprevent them from rolling off Demanders of trucking services arecalled shippers suppliers are called carriers which include bothfor-hire trucking firms and trucking divisions of firms that are nottrucking specialists so-called ldquoprivate fleetsrdquo Dispatchers anddrivers perform work for carriers and it is common for a carrierrsquosdrivers to be a mix of owner-operators (drivers who own theirtruck) and company drivers (drivers who do not)

Dispatchers receive and solicit orders from shippers and as-sign trucks and drivers to hauls The dispatcherrsquos job is crucial formaintaining high levels of capacity utilization One of dispatch-ersrsquo principal tasks is scheduling ldquobackhaulsrdquo or return trips It isparticularly valuable to set up a ldquobackhaulrdquo for trucks when haulstake them outside of their local area and it is generally possibleto do so when hauls use trailers for which demand tends to bebidirectional This tends to be the case for trailers that are not toospecialized to a particular type of cargo5 Because the exact timeand place of shippersrsquo demands is usually unknown at the timetrucks depart dispatchers tend not to firm up their plans for thebackhaul until trucks are en route often around the time trucksarrive at their destination Utilizing capacity efficiently generallyimplies deferring assignment-setting as much as possible

Two types of incentive problems exist in the relationshipbetween drivers and carriers One involves how the truck isdriven It has traditionally been difficult to verify how driversoperate trucks since they are operated remotely and other thanknowing whether the truck and driver arrived on time at theirdestination the carrier has had little information about a truckonce it is on the road Wear and tear on the truck is minimizedwhen drivers drive at a steady and moderate speed but driversmay prefer to drive fast and then take longer breaks because itallows them to rest longer visit friends etc and still arrive ontime Driversrsquo scope for this type of nonoptimal driving is

teristics) discourage drivers from owning certain trucks and provide evidenceconsistent with this

5 Thus demand for nonrefrigerated vans or platform trailers is generallybidirectional but demand for trailers such as logging trailers tends to beunidirectional

1446 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

particularly high for longer hauls because there is more op-portunity to make up time

In recent years a new technology developed that allowscarriers to monitor driversrsquo behavior much more closely On-boardcomputers come in two forms trip recorders and Electronic Ve-hicle Monitoring Systems (EVMS)6 Trip recorders collect infor-mation about trucksrsquo operation one can think of them as trucksrsquoldquoblack boxesrdquo They record when trucks are turned on and offtheir speed over time acceleration and deceleration patterns fueluse and variables related to engine performance Data from triprecorders are collected when drivers return to their base driversgive dispatchers a chart floppy disk or data cartridge with dataThese data allow carriers to better know how the truck wasdriven and give mechanics information that allows them to bettermaintain the truckrsquos engine EVMS have several additional fea-tures that help dispatchers coordinate the movement of theirfleets For example they can transmit trucksrsquo real-time locationto carriers and allow dispatchers and drivers to send short textmessages to each other The advent of OBCs has significantlychanged the ability of carriers to verify how drivers drive Weanalyze the effect of this change below

The second important incentive problem that affects the re-lationship between drivers and carriers results from the incom-plete nature of contracting over the use of the truck Agreementsbetween carriers and drivers generally cover multiple periodsand hence multiple hauls but they generally do not specify inadvance exactly which hauls drivers will complete because flexi-bility in scheduling can be extremely important for capacity uti-lization Conflicts between carriers and drivers arise becausehauls vary in their desirability to drivers in ways that are notcaptured in agreements with carriers Those that take driversinto congested or dangerous areas are less desirable than thosethat do not Hauls that involve layovers or empty miles can beundesirable for ldquoover-the-roadrdquo (ie nonlocal) drivers whose com-pensation is generally output-based7 Dispatchers negotiate withdrivers to induce them to accept undesirable hauls particularlywhen drivers are far from their base and carriers have no other

6 As of 1992 trip recorders cost about $500 EVMS hardware cost $3000ndash$4000 to buy or about $150month to lease

7 Driversrsquo compensation for intercity hauls is generally based on eithermiles loaded miles or a fraction of the haulrsquos revenues regardless of whetherthey own trucks See Lafontaine and Masten [2002] for an analysis

1447CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

drivers in the area This negotiation usually involves a combina-tion of moral suasion promises to assign drivers desirable haulsin the future and sometimes pecuniary compensation

IIA Asset Ownership

Truck ownership implies both residual control over how thetruck is used and a residual claim on the truckrsquos value Residualcontrol rights with respect to how trucks are used exist becauseas discussed above it is rarely optimal to specify exactly howtrucks should be used more than a few hours in advance Animportant convention in the trucking industry is that truck own-ers have the ultimate say with respect to how trucks are used8 Acommon expression of this convention is that there is ldquono forceddispatchrdquo for owner-operators Taken literally ldquono forced dis-patchrdquo refers to trucks rather than drivers since carriers cannotliterally force any driver to accept dispatchersrsquo assignmentmdashcompany drivers can quit as well But unlike company driversowner-operators can take their truck and use it as they wish9

Note that in principle the party with residual control rightsneed not be the residual claimant on its value But if the partythat held residual control rights over the truck did not also haveresidual claimancy this party would not have incentives to utilizethese rights in a way that preserves trucksrsquo value A carrier whoheld residual control rights but not residual claims on a truckwould have strong incentives to use the truck for hauls that arehard on the truckrsquos engine for example This is an importantreason for the ldquono forced dispatchrdquo convention and is why ar-rangements whereby owner-operators sign away their right torefuse backhaulsmdasharrangements that would give carriers resid-ual control rights but not residual claimancymdashdo not appear inthis industry10

8 This convention which links ownership of a physical asset to residualdecision rights with respect to the assetrsquos use parallels Grossman and Hartrsquos[1986] definition of asset ownership

9 A company driver who quits far from his base has to find his own wayhome An owner-operator can much more credibly threaten to walk away (actuallydrive away) from the bargaining In interviews with drivers and dispatchers welearned that whether the driver owns both the tractor and the trailer or only thetractor matters little to bargaining costs

10 As discussed at length in a previous version of the paper [Baker andHubbard 2000] there exist long-term contracts between owner-operators andcarriers whose provisions would appear to restrict how owner-operators can usetheir trucks But the formal lease terms are misleading they exist for regulatoryreasons unrelated to our analysis Carriers do not deny owner-operators access totheir trucks even when drivers unilaterally terminate leases prematurely The

1448 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

The incentive benefits of having drivers own their truck areclear if the driver owns the truck he has incentives (through hisresidual claim on the truckrsquos value) to make optimal trade-offswith respect to how the truck is driven If the driver does not ownthe truck then absent some contracting technology he will makedecisions about how to drive that are likely to be inefficient

The incentives induced by driver ownership with respect tonegotiation over the backhaul are more complex When the car-rier owns the truck then if a profitable backhaul is found thecarrier can mandate that the truck be used for that backhaulHowever if the driver owns the truck the carrier cannot do soThis can lead to at least three forms of inefficiencies which wecollectively label ldquobargaining costsrdquo First the carrier may be lesslikely to try to arrange a highly time-critical pickup (even thoughit might be highly profitable) Second the driverrsquos ability to con-trol how his truck is used may encourage him to engage in costlysearch for alternative hauls in order to strengthen his bargainingposition with the dispatcher Finally even if neither party en-gages in these sorts of ex ante inefficient actions to maintain orimprove their bargaining positions they may engage in costly expost haggling that wastes time and effort The likelihood of all ofthese types of behavior increases when the driver owns the truckand can threaten not to carry a particular backhaul lined up bythe dispatcher

This depiction of the costs and benefits of owner-operators isconsistent with characterizations in the literature Dispatchersoften claim that they have more difficulty inducing owner-opera-tors to accept hauls than company drivers and that this makes itmore difficult to plan schedules In his book Maister [1980] ob-serves that ldquoOwner-operatorsrsquo refusal of loads is by a largemargin the most commonly reported disadvantage in utilizingowner-operators rather than a company-owned fleet Refusalsmean that the carrier can plan less well and as we have seenoperational planning is a difficult task for any irregular-routecarrier because of the lsquoreal-timersquo nature of planning required ofsuch carriersrdquo [p 97]

control right provisions in owner-operator leases are for our intents and purposesa legal fiction

1449CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

IIB Empirical Propositions

We propose that the optimal ownership of trucks is influ-enced by the relative costs of these two organizational structuresthe agency costs that can arise when the driver does not own thetruck and the bargaining costs (both ex ante and ex post) thatcan result when the driver does own the truck We develop twocross-sectional propositions about asset ownership in truckingbased on this simple trade-off These propositions require that weare able to differentiate hauls by the magnitude of these incentiveproblems and these bargaining costs

As discussed above longer hauls are likely to induce greaterdriving problems This is because on longer hauls drivers havemore scope to drive fast for some period of time and then use thetime saved to engage in other types of activities Thus the inef-ficient driving problem should be greater for long hauls In con-trast bargaining costs should not systematically differ with dis-tance when looking across hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area situations where backhauls are valuable The ineffi-ciencies associated with driver ownership are primarily a func-tion of whether backhauls exist and would be profitable and thebargaining environment varies little depending on whethertrucks are say 150 or 300 miles from their base We thereforepropose (P1) that among hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area longer hauls are more likely to be completed byowner-operators

In addition certain types of hauls use trailers that are morelikely to be used for backhauls than others Hauls carried ingeneral purpose trailers such as nonrefrigerated vans are morelikely to suffer from costly backhaul negotiations than hauls thatuse trailers for which there tends to be little backhaul demandSince hauls without backhaul problems will not suffer from bar-gaining costs they are more likely to be carried by owner-opera-tors We divide trailers into two groupsmdashthose for which aggre-gate demands are likely to be bidirectional and those for whichthey are likely to be unidirectionalmdashand propose (P2) that (hold-ing the haul length constant) hauls that use unidirectional trail-ers are more likely to be carried by owner-operators11

Evidence with respect to P2 is important because it sheds

11 We also break down the ldquobackhaulrdquo group slightly more finely and showthat nonrefrigerated vans (which are the most likely to have bidirectional de-mand) are still more likely to be company owned

1450 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

light on the costs associated with driver ownership In particularfinding evidence consistent with P2 is inconsistent with the hy-pothesis that optimal asset ownership reflects a simple trade-offbetween incentives and risk-sharing unless any risk-relatedcosts associated with driver ownership were systematically lowerfor unidirectional than bidirectional trailers Evidence consistentwith P2 would also be inconsistent with a simplistic predictionthat asset specialization should lead to greater integration Uni-directional trailers tend to be those that are specialized to par-ticular types of cargo and P2 states that hauls that usesuch trailers should be relatively more likely to be carried byowner-operators12

Our main empirical proposition relates however to howownership patterns change with the introduction of OBCs andexploits the time dimension of our data If OBCs reduce theinefficient driving problem by making good driving contractiblethey should affect the trade-off between driver and companyownership of the truck for a particular haul We therefore propose(P3) that driver ownership should decline with OBC adoptionThe reason for this is simple OBCs eliminate an importantadvantage of owner-operators over company drivers They reducethe agency costs associated with company drivers but do notchange the bargaining costs associated with owner-operators

Our analysis suggests an additional proposition with respectto the relationship between OBC adoption and ownership If theagency costs associated with inefficient driving are greater forlonger hauls and OBCs eliminate such costs by making drivingcontractible then OBCs reduce the agency costs associated withcompany drivers more for longer hauls As a consequence all elseequal the likelihood that a company driver is used for a haulshould increase more for longer hauls We therefore propose (P4)that the relationship between OBC adoption and ownershipchange should be stronger for long hauls than for short hauls

We also analyze whether the relationship between OBCadoption and ownership change varies between unidirectionaland bidirectional hauls This provides some additional evidenceregarding whether bargaining costs associated with backhaulsinfluence asset ownership Suppose that bargaining costs do notdiffer systematically between these classes of hauls One would

12 It would not necessarily be inconsistent with a prediction that carefullydistinguishes between assets specialized to users and assets specialized to uses

1451CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 2: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

is that the driver drives in ways that better preserve the truckrsquosvalue However an important drawback is that when residualrights of control over the truck are allocated to the driver theindividual responsible for planning how trucks should be usedmdashthe dispatchermdashno longer has critical control rights over thetruck This leads to inefficiencies associated with bargaining overthe truckrsquos use for example dispatchers may underinvest infinding good ldquobackhaulsrdquo (return trips) for trucks or drivers mayengage in inefficient rent-seeking behavior This analytic frame-work generates empirical propositions that allow us to examineboth sides of the trade-off that we propose

Our empirical analysis uses truck-level data from the Cen-susrsquo 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys We firstshow that driver ownership of trucks is greater for longer haulsand when hauls require equipment for which demands are uni-directional (ie backhauls are unlikely) rather than bidirec-tional We then develop an empirical strategy that allows us toexamine how a new monitoring technology (on-board computersor ldquoOBCsrdquo) that becomes available in the middle of our sampleperiod affects ownership patterns We show that driver owner-ship of trucks decreases with OBC adoption and that this rela-tionship is strongest for long hauls where the monitoring tech-nology is the most valuable Finally we test whether OBCschange how drivers drive by assessing the fuel economy of trucksdriven by company drivers and owner-operators with and withoutOBCs We find that while fuel economy is better for trucks withOBCs than without them this difference is greater for companydrivers than owner-operators

Overall our evidence supports our analytic framework andsuggests that contractual improvements have led to more inte-grated asset ownership in trucking especially in circumstanceswhere allocating control rights to drivers is costly Contractualimprovements have led carriers to subcontract less of their haulsto owner-operators and thus have led to larger more integratedfirms

This paper extends several strains of the empirical literatureon organizations2 In particular it is closely related to Baker and

2 Other recent work that investigates organizational issues in truckingincludes Chakraborty and Kazarosian [1999] Hubbard [2000 2001] Lafontaineand Masten [2002] and Nickerson and Silverman [2003] See Brickley and Dark[1987] Lafontaine [1992] and Shepard [1993] for evidence on contractibility andownership in franchising and Brynjolffson and Hitt [1997] and citations for

1444 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Hubbard [2003] which examines relationships between OBCadoption and shippersrsquo make-or-buy decision ie whether ship-pers use a truck from their private fleet for a haul or outsourcetheir shipping needs to for-hire carriers In this companion piecewe propose a model in which shipper ownership of trucks is afunction of the importance of service quality to a particular haulWe ignore service issues in this paper because we do not believethem to be relevant to the margin we examine As we explain inthe other paper the inefficiencies associated with using owner-operators for hauls involving service tasks (such as sorting cargo)are so large that they should not be used on these types of haulsIn practice owner-operators are rarely used for hauls with sig-nificant service requirements3

An outline of the rest of the paper follows In Section II wedescribe the production process and contracting environmenthighlighting how the contracting environment affects driver in-centives We then discuss asset ownership and build the analyticframework that generates the hypotheses to be tested In SectionIII we describe the data and present cross-sectional patterns withrespect to ownership and OBC use In Section IV we present andinterpret our main results estimates of relationships betweenOBC adoption and organizational change In Section V wepresent some evidence of OBCsrsquo incentive effects by examiningrelationships between OBC use and fuel economy In Section VIwe conclude

II INCENTIVE PROBLEMS AND ASSET OWNERSHIP IN TRUCKING

Production in trucking involves the movement of goodsHauls differ along many dimensions and the type of cargo deter-mines what kind of trailer can be used4 Packaged goods that donot require refrigeration can be hauled in nonrefrigerated vans

evidence on relationships between information technology adoption and organi-zational form

3 Driver ownership is an organizational option for all hauls including thosewhere shippers choose instead to use trucks from their internal fleet Althoughmany hauls for which shippers choose to use private fleets are inframarginalldquocompany driverrdquo hauls excluding them from the empirical analysis would intro-duce sample selection problems Like in our companion piece our empiricalanalysis therefore uses data from all tractor-trailers in the TIUS (subject to someminor restrictions described later)

4 This is not the only variation in equipment requirements that can affectorganizational form Nickerson and Silverman [2003] argue that asset specificity(in the form of interactions between drive-train configurations and haul charac-

1445CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the most common class of trailer but other goods require trailersthat are more specialized to the specific good For example logsand vehicles are hauled on trailers that have special features thatprevent them from rolling off Demanders of trucking services arecalled shippers suppliers are called carriers which include bothfor-hire trucking firms and trucking divisions of firms that are nottrucking specialists so-called ldquoprivate fleetsrdquo Dispatchers anddrivers perform work for carriers and it is common for a carrierrsquosdrivers to be a mix of owner-operators (drivers who own theirtruck) and company drivers (drivers who do not)

Dispatchers receive and solicit orders from shippers and as-sign trucks and drivers to hauls The dispatcherrsquos job is crucial formaintaining high levels of capacity utilization One of dispatch-ersrsquo principal tasks is scheduling ldquobackhaulsrdquo or return trips It isparticularly valuable to set up a ldquobackhaulrdquo for trucks when haulstake them outside of their local area and it is generally possibleto do so when hauls use trailers for which demand tends to bebidirectional This tends to be the case for trailers that are not toospecialized to a particular type of cargo5 Because the exact timeand place of shippersrsquo demands is usually unknown at the timetrucks depart dispatchers tend not to firm up their plans for thebackhaul until trucks are en route often around the time trucksarrive at their destination Utilizing capacity efficiently generallyimplies deferring assignment-setting as much as possible

Two types of incentive problems exist in the relationshipbetween drivers and carriers One involves how the truck isdriven It has traditionally been difficult to verify how driversoperate trucks since they are operated remotely and other thanknowing whether the truck and driver arrived on time at theirdestination the carrier has had little information about a truckonce it is on the road Wear and tear on the truck is minimizedwhen drivers drive at a steady and moderate speed but driversmay prefer to drive fast and then take longer breaks because itallows them to rest longer visit friends etc and still arrive ontime Driversrsquo scope for this type of nonoptimal driving is

teristics) discourage drivers from owning certain trucks and provide evidenceconsistent with this

5 Thus demand for nonrefrigerated vans or platform trailers is generallybidirectional but demand for trailers such as logging trailers tends to beunidirectional

1446 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

particularly high for longer hauls because there is more op-portunity to make up time

In recent years a new technology developed that allowscarriers to monitor driversrsquo behavior much more closely On-boardcomputers come in two forms trip recorders and Electronic Ve-hicle Monitoring Systems (EVMS)6 Trip recorders collect infor-mation about trucksrsquo operation one can think of them as trucksrsquoldquoblack boxesrdquo They record when trucks are turned on and offtheir speed over time acceleration and deceleration patterns fueluse and variables related to engine performance Data from triprecorders are collected when drivers return to their base driversgive dispatchers a chart floppy disk or data cartridge with dataThese data allow carriers to better know how the truck wasdriven and give mechanics information that allows them to bettermaintain the truckrsquos engine EVMS have several additional fea-tures that help dispatchers coordinate the movement of theirfleets For example they can transmit trucksrsquo real-time locationto carriers and allow dispatchers and drivers to send short textmessages to each other The advent of OBCs has significantlychanged the ability of carriers to verify how drivers drive Weanalyze the effect of this change below

The second important incentive problem that affects the re-lationship between drivers and carriers results from the incom-plete nature of contracting over the use of the truck Agreementsbetween carriers and drivers generally cover multiple periodsand hence multiple hauls but they generally do not specify inadvance exactly which hauls drivers will complete because flexi-bility in scheduling can be extremely important for capacity uti-lization Conflicts between carriers and drivers arise becausehauls vary in their desirability to drivers in ways that are notcaptured in agreements with carriers Those that take driversinto congested or dangerous areas are less desirable than thosethat do not Hauls that involve layovers or empty miles can beundesirable for ldquoover-the-roadrdquo (ie nonlocal) drivers whose com-pensation is generally output-based7 Dispatchers negotiate withdrivers to induce them to accept undesirable hauls particularlywhen drivers are far from their base and carriers have no other

6 As of 1992 trip recorders cost about $500 EVMS hardware cost $3000ndash$4000 to buy or about $150month to lease

7 Driversrsquo compensation for intercity hauls is generally based on eithermiles loaded miles or a fraction of the haulrsquos revenues regardless of whetherthey own trucks See Lafontaine and Masten [2002] for an analysis

1447CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

drivers in the area This negotiation usually involves a combina-tion of moral suasion promises to assign drivers desirable haulsin the future and sometimes pecuniary compensation

IIA Asset Ownership

Truck ownership implies both residual control over how thetruck is used and a residual claim on the truckrsquos value Residualcontrol rights with respect to how trucks are used exist becauseas discussed above it is rarely optimal to specify exactly howtrucks should be used more than a few hours in advance Animportant convention in the trucking industry is that truck own-ers have the ultimate say with respect to how trucks are used8 Acommon expression of this convention is that there is ldquono forceddispatchrdquo for owner-operators Taken literally ldquono forced dis-patchrdquo refers to trucks rather than drivers since carriers cannotliterally force any driver to accept dispatchersrsquo assignmentmdashcompany drivers can quit as well But unlike company driversowner-operators can take their truck and use it as they wish9

Note that in principle the party with residual control rightsneed not be the residual claimant on its value But if the partythat held residual control rights over the truck did not also haveresidual claimancy this party would not have incentives to utilizethese rights in a way that preserves trucksrsquo value A carrier whoheld residual control rights but not residual claims on a truckwould have strong incentives to use the truck for hauls that arehard on the truckrsquos engine for example This is an importantreason for the ldquono forced dispatchrdquo convention and is why ar-rangements whereby owner-operators sign away their right torefuse backhaulsmdasharrangements that would give carriers resid-ual control rights but not residual claimancymdashdo not appear inthis industry10

8 This convention which links ownership of a physical asset to residualdecision rights with respect to the assetrsquos use parallels Grossman and Hartrsquos[1986] definition of asset ownership

9 A company driver who quits far from his base has to find his own wayhome An owner-operator can much more credibly threaten to walk away (actuallydrive away) from the bargaining In interviews with drivers and dispatchers welearned that whether the driver owns both the tractor and the trailer or only thetractor matters little to bargaining costs

10 As discussed at length in a previous version of the paper [Baker andHubbard 2000] there exist long-term contracts between owner-operators andcarriers whose provisions would appear to restrict how owner-operators can usetheir trucks But the formal lease terms are misleading they exist for regulatoryreasons unrelated to our analysis Carriers do not deny owner-operators access totheir trucks even when drivers unilaterally terminate leases prematurely The

1448 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

The incentive benefits of having drivers own their truck areclear if the driver owns the truck he has incentives (through hisresidual claim on the truckrsquos value) to make optimal trade-offswith respect to how the truck is driven If the driver does not ownthe truck then absent some contracting technology he will makedecisions about how to drive that are likely to be inefficient

The incentives induced by driver ownership with respect tonegotiation over the backhaul are more complex When the car-rier owns the truck then if a profitable backhaul is found thecarrier can mandate that the truck be used for that backhaulHowever if the driver owns the truck the carrier cannot do soThis can lead to at least three forms of inefficiencies which wecollectively label ldquobargaining costsrdquo First the carrier may be lesslikely to try to arrange a highly time-critical pickup (even thoughit might be highly profitable) Second the driverrsquos ability to con-trol how his truck is used may encourage him to engage in costlysearch for alternative hauls in order to strengthen his bargainingposition with the dispatcher Finally even if neither party en-gages in these sorts of ex ante inefficient actions to maintain orimprove their bargaining positions they may engage in costly expost haggling that wastes time and effort The likelihood of all ofthese types of behavior increases when the driver owns the truckand can threaten not to carry a particular backhaul lined up bythe dispatcher

This depiction of the costs and benefits of owner-operators isconsistent with characterizations in the literature Dispatchersoften claim that they have more difficulty inducing owner-opera-tors to accept hauls than company drivers and that this makes itmore difficult to plan schedules In his book Maister [1980] ob-serves that ldquoOwner-operatorsrsquo refusal of loads is by a largemargin the most commonly reported disadvantage in utilizingowner-operators rather than a company-owned fleet Refusalsmean that the carrier can plan less well and as we have seenoperational planning is a difficult task for any irregular-routecarrier because of the lsquoreal-timersquo nature of planning required ofsuch carriersrdquo [p 97]

control right provisions in owner-operator leases are for our intents and purposesa legal fiction

1449CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

IIB Empirical Propositions

We propose that the optimal ownership of trucks is influ-enced by the relative costs of these two organizational structuresthe agency costs that can arise when the driver does not own thetruck and the bargaining costs (both ex ante and ex post) thatcan result when the driver does own the truck We develop twocross-sectional propositions about asset ownership in truckingbased on this simple trade-off These propositions require that weare able to differentiate hauls by the magnitude of these incentiveproblems and these bargaining costs

As discussed above longer hauls are likely to induce greaterdriving problems This is because on longer hauls drivers havemore scope to drive fast for some period of time and then use thetime saved to engage in other types of activities Thus the inef-ficient driving problem should be greater for long hauls In con-trast bargaining costs should not systematically differ with dis-tance when looking across hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area situations where backhauls are valuable The ineffi-ciencies associated with driver ownership are primarily a func-tion of whether backhauls exist and would be profitable and thebargaining environment varies little depending on whethertrucks are say 150 or 300 miles from their base We thereforepropose (P1) that among hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area longer hauls are more likely to be completed byowner-operators

In addition certain types of hauls use trailers that are morelikely to be used for backhauls than others Hauls carried ingeneral purpose trailers such as nonrefrigerated vans are morelikely to suffer from costly backhaul negotiations than hauls thatuse trailers for which there tends to be little backhaul demandSince hauls without backhaul problems will not suffer from bar-gaining costs they are more likely to be carried by owner-opera-tors We divide trailers into two groupsmdashthose for which aggre-gate demands are likely to be bidirectional and those for whichthey are likely to be unidirectionalmdashand propose (P2) that (hold-ing the haul length constant) hauls that use unidirectional trail-ers are more likely to be carried by owner-operators11

Evidence with respect to P2 is important because it sheds

11 We also break down the ldquobackhaulrdquo group slightly more finely and showthat nonrefrigerated vans (which are the most likely to have bidirectional de-mand) are still more likely to be company owned

1450 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

light on the costs associated with driver ownership In particularfinding evidence consistent with P2 is inconsistent with the hy-pothesis that optimal asset ownership reflects a simple trade-offbetween incentives and risk-sharing unless any risk-relatedcosts associated with driver ownership were systematically lowerfor unidirectional than bidirectional trailers Evidence consistentwith P2 would also be inconsistent with a simplistic predictionthat asset specialization should lead to greater integration Uni-directional trailers tend to be those that are specialized to par-ticular types of cargo and P2 states that hauls that usesuch trailers should be relatively more likely to be carried byowner-operators12

Our main empirical proposition relates however to howownership patterns change with the introduction of OBCs andexploits the time dimension of our data If OBCs reduce theinefficient driving problem by making good driving contractiblethey should affect the trade-off between driver and companyownership of the truck for a particular haul We therefore propose(P3) that driver ownership should decline with OBC adoptionThe reason for this is simple OBCs eliminate an importantadvantage of owner-operators over company drivers They reducethe agency costs associated with company drivers but do notchange the bargaining costs associated with owner-operators

Our analysis suggests an additional proposition with respectto the relationship between OBC adoption and ownership If theagency costs associated with inefficient driving are greater forlonger hauls and OBCs eliminate such costs by making drivingcontractible then OBCs reduce the agency costs associated withcompany drivers more for longer hauls As a consequence all elseequal the likelihood that a company driver is used for a haulshould increase more for longer hauls We therefore propose (P4)that the relationship between OBC adoption and ownershipchange should be stronger for long hauls than for short hauls

We also analyze whether the relationship between OBCadoption and ownership change varies between unidirectionaland bidirectional hauls This provides some additional evidenceregarding whether bargaining costs associated with backhaulsinfluence asset ownership Suppose that bargaining costs do notdiffer systematically between these classes of hauls One would

12 It would not necessarily be inconsistent with a prediction that carefullydistinguishes between assets specialized to users and assets specialized to uses

1451CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 3: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

Hubbard [2003] which examines relationships between OBCadoption and shippersrsquo make-or-buy decision ie whether ship-pers use a truck from their private fleet for a haul or outsourcetheir shipping needs to for-hire carriers In this companion piecewe propose a model in which shipper ownership of trucks is afunction of the importance of service quality to a particular haulWe ignore service issues in this paper because we do not believethem to be relevant to the margin we examine As we explain inthe other paper the inefficiencies associated with using owner-operators for hauls involving service tasks (such as sorting cargo)are so large that they should not be used on these types of haulsIn practice owner-operators are rarely used for hauls with sig-nificant service requirements3

An outline of the rest of the paper follows In Section II wedescribe the production process and contracting environmenthighlighting how the contracting environment affects driver in-centives We then discuss asset ownership and build the analyticframework that generates the hypotheses to be tested In SectionIII we describe the data and present cross-sectional patterns withrespect to ownership and OBC use In Section IV we present andinterpret our main results estimates of relationships betweenOBC adoption and organizational change In Section V wepresent some evidence of OBCsrsquo incentive effects by examiningrelationships between OBC use and fuel economy In Section VIwe conclude

II INCENTIVE PROBLEMS AND ASSET OWNERSHIP IN TRUCKING

Production in trucking involves the movement of goodsHauls differ along many dimensions and the type of cargo deter-mines what kind of trailer can be used4 Packaged goods that donot require refrigeration can be hauled in nonrefrigerated vans

evidence on relationships between information technology adoption and organi-zational form

3 Driver ownership is an organizational option for all hauls including thosewhere shippers choose instead to use trucks from their internal fleet Althoughmany hauls for which shippers choose to use private fleets are inframarginalldquocompany driverrdquo hauls excluding them from the empirical analysis would intro-duce sample selection problems Like in our companion piece our empiricalanalysis therefore uses data from all tractor-trailers in the TIUS (subject to someminor restrictions described later)

4 This is not the only variation in equipment requirements that can affectorganizational form Nickerson and Silverman [2003] argue that asset specificity(in the form of interactions between drive-train configurations and haul charac-

1445CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the most common class of trailer but other goods require trailersthat are more specialized to the specific good For example logsand vehicles are hauled on trailers that have special features thatprevent them from rolling off Demanders of trucking services arecalled shippers suppliers are called carriers which include bothfor-hire trucking firms and trucking divisions of firms that are nottrucking specialists so-called ldquoprivate fleetsrdquo Dispatchers anddrivers perform work for carriers and it is common for a carrierrsquosdrivers to be a mix of owner-operators (drivers who own theirtruck) and company drivers (drivers who do not)

Dispatchers receive and solicit orders from shippers and as-sign trucks and drivers to hauls The dispatcherrsquos job is crucial formaintaining high levels of capacity utilization One of dispatch-ersrsquo principal tasks is scheduling ldquobackhaulsrdquo or return trips It isparticularly valuable to set up a ldquobackhaulrdquo for trucks when haulstake them outside of their local area and it is generally possibleto do so when hauls use trailers for which demand tends to bebidirectional This tends to be the case for trailers that are not toospecialized to a particular type of cargo5 Because the exact timeand place of shippersrsquo demands is usually unknown at the timetrucks depart dispatchers tend not to firm up their plans for thebackhaul until trucks are en route often around the time trucksarrive at their destination Utilizing capacity efficiently generallyimplies deferring assignment-setting as much as possible

Two types of incentive problems exist in the relationshipbetween drivers and carriers One involves how the truck isdriven It has traditionally been difficult to verify how driversoperate trucks since they are operated remotely and other thanknowing whether the truck and driver arrived on time at theirdestination the carrier has had little information about a truckonce it is on the road Wear and tear on the truck is minimizedwhen drivers drive at a steady and moderate speed but driversmay prefer to drive fast and then take longer breaks because itallows them to rest longer visit friends etc and still arrive ontime Driversrsquo scope for this type of nonoptimal driving is

teristics) discourage drivers from owning certain trucks and provide evidenceconsistent with this

5 Thus demand for nonrefrigerated vans or platform trailers is generallybidirectional but demand for trailers such as logging trailers tends to beunidirectional

1446 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

particularly high for longer hauls because there is more op-portunity to make up time

In recent years a new technology developed that allowscarriers to monitor driversrsquo behavior much more closely On-boardcomputers come in two forms trip recorders and Electronic Ve-hicle Monitoring Systems (EVMS)6 Trip recorders collect infor-mation about trucksrsquo operation one can think of them as trucksrsquoldquoblack boxesrdquo They record when trucks are turned on and offtheir speed over time acceleration and deceleration patterns fueluse and variables related to engine performance Data from triprecorders are collected when drivers return to their base driversgive dispatchers a chart floppy disk or data cartridge with dataThese data allow carriers to better know how the truck wasdriven and give mechanics information that allows them to bettermaintain the truckrsquos engine EVMS have several additional fea-tures that help dispatchers coordinate the movement of theirfleets For example they can transmit trucksrsquo real-time locationto carriers and allow dispatchers and drivers to send short textmessages to each other The advent of OBCs has significantlychanged the ability of carriers to verify how drivers drive Weanalyze the effect of this change below

The second important incentive problem that affects the re-lationship between drivers and carriers results from the incom-plete nature of contracting over the use of the truck Agreementsbetween carriers and drivers generally cover multiple periodsand hence multiple hauls but they generally do not specify inadvance exactly which hauls drivers will complete because flexi-bility in scheduling can be extremely important for capacity uti-lization Conflicts between carriers and drivers arise becausehauls vary in their desirability to drivers in ways that are notcaptured in agreements with carriers Those that take driversinto congested or dangerous areas are less desirable than thosethat do not Hauls that involve layovers or empty miles can beundesirable for ldquoover-the-roadrdquo (ie nonlocal) drivers whose com-pensation is generally output-based7 Dispatchers negotiate withdrivers to induce them to accept undesirable hauls particularlywhen drivers are far from their base and carriers have no other

6 As of 1992 trip recorders cost about $500 EVMS hardware cost $3000ndash$4000 to buy or about $150month to lease

7 Driversrsquo compensation for intercity hauls is generally based on eithermiles loaded miles or a fraction of the haulrsquos revenues regardless of whetherthey own trucks See Lafontaine and Masten [2002] for an analysis

1447CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

drivers in the area This negotiation usually involves a combina-tion of moral suasion promises to assign drivers desirable haulsin the future and sometimes pecuniary compensation

IIA Asset Ownership

Truck ownership implies both residual control over how thetruck is used and a residual claim on the truckrsquos value Residualcontrol rights with respect to how trucks are used exist becauseas discussed above it is rarely optimal to specify exactly howtrucks should be used more than a few hours in advance Animportant convention in the trucking industry is that truck own-ers have the ultimate say with respect to how trucks are used8 Acommon expression of this convention is that there is ldquono forceddispatchrdquo for owner-operators Taken literally ldquono forced dis-patchrdquo refers to trucks rather than drivers since carriers cannotliterally force any driver to accept dispatchersrsquo assignmentmdashcompany drivers can quit as well But unlike company driversowner-operators can take their truck and use it as they wish9

Note that in principle the party with residual control rightsneed not be the residual claimant on its value But if the partythat held residual control rights over the truck did not also haveresidual claimancy this party would not have incentives to utilizethese rights in a way that preserves trucksrsquo value A carrier whoheld residual control rights but not residual claims on a truckwould have strong incentives to use the truck for hauls that arehard on the truckrsquos engine for example This is an importantreason for the ldquono forced dispatchrdquo convention and is why ar-rangements whereby owner-operators sign away their right torefuse backhaulsmdasharrangements that would give carriers resid-ual control rights but not residual claimancymdashdo not appear inthis industry10

8 This convention which links ownership of a physical asset to residualdecision rights with respect to the assetrsquos use parallels Grossman and Hartrsquos[1986] definition of asset ownership

9 A company driver who quits far from his base has to find his own wayhome An owner-operator can much more credibly threaten to walk away (actuallydrive away) from the bargaining In interviews with drivers and dispatchers welearned that whether the driver owns both the tractor and the trailer or only thetractor matters little to bargaining costs

10 As discussed at length in a previous version of the paper [Baker andHubbard 2000] there exist long-term contracts between owner-operators andcarriers whose provisions would appear to restrict how owner-operators can usetheir trucks But the formal lease terms are misleading they exist for regulatoryreasons unrelated to our analysis Carriers do not deny owner-operators access totheir trucks even when drivers unilaterally terminate leases prematurely The

1448 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

The incentive benefits of having drivers own their truck areclear if the driver owns the truck he has incentives (through hisresidual claim on the truckrsquos value) to make optimal trade-offswith respect to how the truck is driven If the driver does not ownthe truck then absent some contracting technology he will makedecisions about how to drive that are likely to be inefficient

The incentives induced by driver ownership with respect tonegotiation over the backhaul are more complex When the car-rier owns the truck then if a profitable backhaul is found thecarrier can mandate that the truck be used for that backhaulHowever if the driver owns the truck the carrier cannot do soThis can lead to at least three forms of inefficiencies which wecollectively label ldquobargaining costsrdquo First the carrier may be lesslikely to try to arrange a highly time-critical pickup (even thoughit might be highly profitable) Second the driverrsquos ability to con-trol how his truck is used may encourage him to engage in costlysearch for alternative hauls in order to strengthen his bargainingposition with the dispatcher Finally even if neither party en-gages in these sorts of ex ante inefficient actions to maintain orimprove their bargaining positions they may engage in costly expost haggling that wastes time and effort The likelihood of all ofthese types of behavior increases when the driver owns the truckand can threaten not to carry a particular backhaul lined up bythe dispatcher

This depiction of the costs and benefits of owner-operators isconsistent with characterizations in the literature Dispatchersoften claim that they have more difficulty inducing owner-opera-tors to accept hauls than company drivers and that this makes itmore difficult to plan schedules In his book Maister [1980] ob-serves that ldquoOwner-operatorsrsquo refusal of loads is by a largemargin the most commonly reported disadvantage in utilizingowner-operators rather than a company-owned fleet Refusalsmean that the carrier can plan less well and as we have seenoperational planning is a difficult task for any irregular-routecarrier because of the lsquoreal-timersquo nature of planning required ofsuch carriersrdquo [p 97]

control right provisions in owner-operator leases are for our intents and purposesa legal fiction

1449CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

IIB Empirical Propositions

We propose that the optimal ownership of trucks is influ-enced by the relative costs of these two organizational structuresthe agency costs that can arise when the driver does not own thetruck and the bargaining costs (both ex ante and ex post) thatcan result when the driver does own the truck We develop twocross-sectional propositions about asset ownership in truckingbased on this simple trade-off These propositions require that weare able to differentiate hauls by the magnitude of these incentiveproblems and these bargaining costs

As discussed above longer hauls are likely to induce greaterdriving problems This is because on longer hauls drivers havemore scope to drive fast for some period of time and then use thetime saved to engage in other types of activities Thus the inef-ficient driving problem should be greater for long hauls In con-trast bargaining costs should not systematically differ with dis-tance when looking across hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area situations where backhauls are valuable The ineffi-ciencies associated with driver ownership are primarily a func-tion of whether backhauls exist and would be profitable and thebargaining environment varies little depending on whethertrucks are say 150 or 300 miles from their base We thereforepropose (P1) that among hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area longer hauls are more likely to be completed byowner-operators

In addition certain types of hauls use trailers that are morelikely to be used for backhauls than others Hauls carried ingeneral purpose trailers such as nonrefrigerated vans are morelikely to suffer from costly backhaul negotiations than hauls thatuse trailers for which there tends to be little backhaul demandSince hauls without backhaul problems will not suffer from bar-gaining costs they are more likely to be carried by owner-opera-tors We divide trailers into two groupsmdashthose for which aggre-gate demands are likely to be bidirectional and those for whichthey are likely to be unidirectionalmdashand propose (P2) that (hold-ing the haul length constant) hauls that use unidirectional trail-ers are more likely to be carried by owner-operators11

Evidence with respect to P2 is important because it sheds

11 We also break down the ldquobackhaulrdquo group slightly more finely and showthat nonrefrigerated vans (which are the most likely to have bidirectional de-mand) are still more likely to be company owned

1450 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

light on the costs associated with driver ownership In particularfinding evidence consistent with P2 is inconsistent with the hy-pothesis that optimal asset ownership reflects a simple trade-offbetween incentives and risk-sharing unless any risk-relatedcosts associated with driver ownership were systematically lowerfor unidirectional than bidirectional trailers Evidence consistentwith P2 would also be inconsistent with a simplistic predictionthat asset specialization should lead to greater integration Uni-directional trailers tend to be those that are specialized to par-ticular types of cargo and P2 states that hauls that usesuch trailers should be relatively more likely to be carried byowner-operators12

Our main empirical proposition relates however to howownership patterns change with the introduction of OBCs andexploits the time dimension of our data If OBCs reduce theinefficient driving problem by making good driving contractiblethey should affect the trade-off between driver and companyownership of the truck for a particular haul We therefore propose(P3) that driver ownership should decline with OBC adoptionThe reason for this is simple OBCs eliminate an importantadvantage of owner-operators over company drivers They reducethe agency costs associated with company drivers but do notchange the bargaining costs associated with owner-operators

Our analysis suggests an additional proposition with respectto the relationship between OBC adoption and ownership If theagency costs associated with inefficient driving are greater forlonger hauls and OBCs eliminate such costs by making drivingcontractible then OBCs reduce the agency costs associated withcompany drivers more for longer hauls As a consequence all elseequal the likelihood that a company driver is used for a haulshould increase more for longer hauls We therefore propose (P4)that the relationship between OBC adoption and ownershipchange should be stronger for long hauls than for short hauls

We also analyze whether the relationship between OBCadoption and ownership change varies between unidirectionaland bidirectional hauls This provides some additional evidenceregarding whether bargaining costs associated with backhaulsinfluence asset ownership Suppose that bargaining costs do notdiffer systematically between these classes of hauls One would

12 It would not necessarily be inconsistent with a prediction that carefullydistinguishes between assets specialized to users and assets specialized to uses

1451CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 4: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

the most common class of trailer but other goods require trailersthat are more specialized to the specific good For example logsand vehicles are hauled on trailers that have special features thatprevent them from rolling off Demanders of trucking services arecalled shippers suppliers are called carriers which include bothfor-hire trucking firms and trucking divisions of firms that are nottrucking specialists so-called ldquoprivate fleetsrdquo Dispatchers anddrivers perform work for carriers and it is common for a carrierrsquosdrivers to be a mix of owner-operators (drivers who own theirtruck) and company drivers (drivers who do not)

Dispatchers receive and solicit orders from shippers and as-sign trucks and drivers to hauls The dispatcherrsquos job is crucial formaintaining high levels of capacity utilization One of dispatch-ersrsquo principal tasks is scheduling ldquobackhaulsrdquo or return trips It isparticularly valuable to set up a ldquobackhaulrdquo for trucks when haulstake them outside of their local area and it is generally possibleto do so when hauls use trailers for which demand tends to bebidirectional This tends to be the case for trailers that are not toospecialized to a particular type of cargo5 Because the exact timeand place of shippersrsquo demands is usually unknown at the timetrucks depart dispatchers tend not to firm up their plans for thebackhaul until trucks are en route often around the time trucksarrive at their destination Utilizing capacity efficiently generallyimplies deferring assignment-setting as much as possible

Two types of incentive problems exist in the relationshipbetween drivers and carriers One involves how the truck isdriven It has traditionally been difficult to verify how driversoperate trucks since they are operated remotely and other thanknowing whether the truck and driver arrived on time at theirdestination the carrier has had little information about a truckonce it is on the road Wear and tear on the truck is minimizedwhen drivers drive at a steady and moderate speed but driversmay prefer to drive fast and then take longer breaks because itallows them to rest longer visit friends etc and still arrive ontime Driversrsquo scope for this type of nonoptimal driving is

teristics) discourage drivers from owning certain trucks and provide evidenceconsistent with this

5 Thus demand for nonrefrigerated vans or platform trailers is generallybidirectional but demand for trailers such as logging trailers tends to beunidirectional

1446 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

particularly high for longer hauls because there is more op-portunity to make up time

In recent years a new technology developed that allowscarriers to monitor driversrsquo behavior much more closely On-boardcomputers come in two forms trip recorders and Electronic Ve-hicle Monitoring Systems (EVMS)6 Trip recorders collect infor-mation about trucksrsquo operation one can think of them as trucksrsquoldquoblack boxesrdquo They record when trucks are turned on and offtheir speed over time acceleration and deceleration patterns fueluse and variables related to engine performance Data from triprecorders are collected when drivers return to their base driversgive dispatchers a chart floppy disk or data cartridge with dataThese data allow carriers to better know how the truck wasdriven and give mechanics information that allows them to bettermaintain the truckrsquos engine EVMS have several additional fea-tures that help dispatchers coordinate the movement of theirfleets For example they can transmit trucksrsquo real-time locationto carriers and allow dispatchers and drivers to send short textmessages to each other The advent of OBCs has significantlychanged the ability of carriers to verify how drivers drive Weanalyze the effect of this change below

The second important incentive problem that affects the re-lationship between drivers and carriers results from the incom-plete nature of contracting over the use of the truck Agreementsbetween carriers and drivers generally cover multiple periodsand hence multiple hauls but they generally do not specify inadvance exactly which hauls drivers will complete because flexi-bility in scheduling can be extremely important for capacity uti-lization Conflicts between carriers and drivers arise becausehauls vary in their desirability to drivers in ways that are notcaptured in agreements with carriers Those that take driversinto congested or dangerous areas are less desirable than thosethat do not Hauls that involve layovers or empty miles can beundesirable for ldquoover-the-roadrdquo (ie nonlocal) drivers whose com-pensation is generally output-based7 Dispatchers negotiate withdrivers to induce them to accept undesirable hauls particularlywhen drivers are far from their base and carriers have no other

6 As of 1992 trip recorders cost about $500 EVMS hardware cost $3000ndash$4000 to buy or about $150month to lease

7 Driversrsquo compensation for intercity hauls is generally based on eithermiles loaded miles or a fraction of the haulrsquos revenues regardless of whetherthey own trucks See Lafontaine and Masten [2002] for an analysis

1447CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

drivers in the area This negotiation usually involves a combina-tion of moral suasion promises to assign drivers desirable haulsin the future and sometimes pecuniary compensation

IIA Asset Ownership

Truck ownership implies both residual control over how thetruck is used and a residual claim on the truckrsquos value Residualcontrol rights with respect to how trucks are used exist becauseas discussed above it is rarely optimal to specify exactly howtrucks should be used more than a few hours in advance Animportant convention in the trucking industry is that truck own-ers have the ultimate say with respect to how trucks are used8 Acommon expression of this convention is that there is ldquono forceddispatchrdquo for owner-operators Taken literally ldquono forced dis-patchrdquo refers to trucks rather than drivers since carriers cannotliterally force any driver to accept dispatchersrsquo assignmentmdashcompany drivers can quit as well But unlike company driversowner-operators can take their truck and use it as they wish9

Note that in principle the party with residual control rightsneed not be the residual claimant on its value But if the partythat held residual control rights over the truck did not also haveresidual claimancy this party would not have incentives to utilizethese rights in a way that preserves trucksrsquo value A carrier whoheld residual control rights but not residual claims on a truckwould have strong incentives to use the truck for hauls that arehard on the truckrsquos engine for example This is an importantreason for the ldquono forced dispatchrdquo convention and is why ar-rangements whereby owner-operators sign away their right torefuse backhaulsmdasharrangements that would give carriers resid-ual control rights but not residual claimancymdashdo not appear inthis industry10

8 This convention which links ownership of a physical asset to residualdecision rights with respect to the assetrsquos use parallels Grossman and Hartrsquos[1986] definition of asset ownership

9 A company driver who quits far from his base has to find his own wayhome An owner-operator can much more credibly threaten to walk away (actuallydrive away) from the bargaining In interviews with drivers and dispatchers welearned that whether the driver owns both the tractor and the trailer or only thetractor matters little to bargaining costs

10 As discussed at length in a previous version of the paper [Baker andHubbard 2000] there exist long-term contracts between owner-operators andcarriers whose provisions would appear to restrict how owner-operators can usetheir trucks But the formal lease terms are misleading they exist for regulatoryreasons unrelated to our analysis Carriers do not deny owner-operators access totheir trucks even when drivers unilaterally terminate leases prematurely The

1448 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

The incentive benefits of having drivers own their truck areclear if the driver owns the truck he has incentives (through hisresidual claim on the truckrsquos value) to make optimal trade-offswith respect to how the truck is driven If the driver does not ownthe truck then absent some contracting technology he will makedecisions about how to drive that are likely to be inefficient

The incentives induced by driver ownership with respect tonegotiation over the backhaul are more complex When the car-rier owns the truck then if a profitable backhaul is found thecarrier can mandate that the truck be used for that backhaulHowever if the driver owns the truck the carrier cannot do soThis can lead to at least three forms of inefficiencies which wecollectively label ldquobargaining costsrdquo First the carrier may be lesslikely to try to arrange a highly time-critical pickup (even thoughit might be highly profitable) Second the driverrsquos ability to con-trol how his truck is used may encourage him to engage in costlysearch for alternative hauls in order to strengthen his bargainingposition with the dispatcher Finally even if neither party en-gages in these sorts of ex ante inefficient actions to maintain orimprove their bargaining positions they may engage in costly expost haggling that wastes time and effort The likelihood of all ofthese types of behavior increases when the driver owns the truckand can threaten not to carry a particular backhaul lined up bythe dispatcher

This depiction of the costs and benefits of owner-operators isconsistent with characterizations in the literature Dispatchersoften claim that they have more difficulty inducing owner-opera-tors to accept hauls than company drivers and that this makes itmore difficult to plan schedules In his book Maister [1980] ob-serves that ldquoOwner-operatorsrsquo refusal of loads is by a largemargin the most commonly reported disadvantage in utilizingowner-operators rather than a company-owned fleet Refusalsmean that the carrier can plan less well and as we have seenoperational planning is a difficult task for any irregular-routecarrier because of the lsquoreal-timersquo nature of planning required ofsuch carriersrdquo [p 97]

control right provisions in owner-operator leases are for our intents and purposesa legal fiction

1449CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

IIB Empirical Propositions

We propose that the optimal ownership of trucks is influ-enced by the relative costs of these two organizational structuresthe agency costs that can arise when the driver does not own thetruck and the bargaining costs (both ex ante and ex post) thatcan result when the driver does own the truck We develop twocross-sectional propositions about asset ownership in truckingbased on this simple trade-off These propositions require that weare able to differentiate hauls by the magnitude of these incentiveproblems and these bargaining costs

As discussed above longer hauls are likely to induce greaterdriving problems This is because on longer hauls drivers havemore scope to drive fast for some period of time and then use thetime saved to engage in other types of activities Thus the inef-ficient driving problem should be greater for long hauls In con-trast bargaining costs should not systematically differ with dis-tance when looking across hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area situations where backhauls are valuable The ineffi-ciencies associated with driver ownership are primarily a func-tion of whether backhauls exist and would be profitable and thebargaining environment varies little depending on whethertrucks are say 150 or 300 miles from their base We thereforepropose (P1) that among hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area longer hauls are more likely to be completed byowner-operators

In addition certain types of hauls use trailers that are morelikely to be used for backhauls than others Hauls carried ingeneral purpose trailers such as nonrefrigerated vans are morelikely to suffer from costly backhaul negotiations than hauls thatuse trailers for which there tends to be little backhaul demandSince hauls without backhaul problems will not suffer from bar-gaining costs they are more likely to be carried by owner-opera-tors We divide trailers into two groupsmdashthose for which aggre-gate demands are likely to be bidirectional and those for whichthey are likely to be unidirectionalmdashand propose (P2) that (hold-ing the haul length constant) hauls that use unidirectional trail-ers are more likely to be carried by owner-operators11

Evidence with respect to P2 is important because it sheds

11 We also break down the ldquobackhaulrdquo group slightly more finely and showthat nonrefrigerated vans (which are the most likely to have bidirectional de-mand) are still more likely to be company owned

1450 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

light on the costs associated with driver ownership In particularfinding evidence consistent with P2 is inconsistent with the hy-pothesis that optimal asset ownership reflects a simple trade-offbetween incentives and risk-sharing unless any risk-relatedcosts associated with driver ownership were systematically lowerfor unidirectional than bidirectional trailers Evidence consistentwith P2 would also be inconsistent with a simplistic predictionthat asset specialization should lead to greater integration Uni-directional trailers tend to be those that are specialized to par-ticular types of cargo and P2 states that hauls that usesuch trailers should be relatively more likely to be carried byowner-operators12

Our main empirical proposition relates however to howownership patterns change with the introduction of OBCs andexploits the time dimension of our data If OBCs reduce theinefficient driving problem by making good driving contractiblethey should affect the trade-off between driver and companyownership of the truck for a particular haul We therefore propose(P3) that driver ownership should decline with OBC adoptionThe reason for this is simple OBCs eliminate an importantadvantage of owner-operators over company drivers They reducethe agency costs associated with company drivers but do notchange the bargaining costs associated with owner-operators

Our analysis suggests an additional proposition with respectto the relationship between OBC adoption and ownership If theagency costs associated with inefficient driving are greater forlonger hauls and OBCs eliminate such costs by making drivingcontractible then OBCs reduce the agency costs associated withcompany drivers more for longer hauls As a consequence all elseequal the likelihood that a company driver is used for a haulshould increase more for longer hauls We therefore propose (P4)that the relationship between OBC adoption and ownershipchange should be stronger for long hauls than for short hauls

We also analyze whether the relationship between OBCadoption and ownership change varies between unidirectionaland bidirectional hauls This provides some additional evidenceregarding whether bargaining costs associated with backhaulsinfluence asset ownership Suppose that bargaining costs do notdiffer systematically between these classes of hauls One would

12 It would not necessarily be inconsistent with a prediction that carefullydistinguishes between assets specialized to users and assets specialized to uses

1451CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 5: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

particularly high for longer hauls because there is more op-portunity to make up time

In recent years a new technology developed that allowscarriers to monitor driversrsquo behavior much more closely On-boardcomputers come in two forms trip recorders and Electronic Ve-hicle Monitoring Systems (EVMS)6 Trip recorders collect infor-mation about trucksrsquo operation one can think of them as trucksrsquoldquoblack boxesrdquo They record when trucks are turned on and offtheir speed over time acceleration and deceleration patterns fueluse and variables related to engine performance Data from triprecorders are collected when drivers return to their base driversgive dispatchers a chart floppy disk or data cartridge with dataThese data allow carriers to better know how the truck wasdriven and give mechanics information that allows them to bettermaintain the truckrsquos engine EVMS have several additional fea-tures that help dispatchers coordinate the movement of theirfleets For example they can transmit trucksrsquo real-time locationto carriers and allow dispatchers and drivers to send short textmessages to each other The advent of OBCs has significantlychanged the ability of carriers to verify how drivers drive Weanalyze the effect of this change below

The second important incentive problem that affects the re-lationship between drivers and carriers results from the incom-plete nature of contracting over the use of the truck Agreementsbetween carriers and drivers generally cover multiple periodsand hence multiple hauls but they generally do not specify inadvance exactly which hauls drivers will complete because flexi-bility in scheduling can be extremely important for capacity uti-lization Conflicts between carriers and drivers arise becausehauls vary in their desirability to drivers in ways that are notcaptured in agreements with carriers Those that take driversinto congested or dangerous areas are less desirable than thosethat do not Hauls that involve layovers or empty miles can beundesirable for ldquoover-the-roadrdquo (ie nonlocal) drivers whose com-pensation is generally output-based7 Dispatchers negotiate withdrivers to induce them to accept undesirable hauls particularlywhen drivers are far from their base and carriers have no other

6 As of 1992 trip recorders cost about $500 EVMS hardware cost $3000ndash$4000 to buy or about $150month to lease

7 Driversrsquo compensation for intercity hauls is generally based on eithermiles loaded miles or a fraction of the haulrsquos revenues regardless of whetherthey own trucks See Lafontaine and Masten [2002] for an analysis

1447CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

drivers in the area This negotiation usually involves a combina-tion of moral suasion promises to assign drivers desirable haulsin the future and sometimes pecuniary compensation

IIA Asset Ownership

Truck ownership implies both residual control over how thetruck is used and a residual claim on the truckrsquos value Residualcontrol rights with respect to how trucks are used exist becauseas discussed above it is rarely optimal to specify exactly howtrucks should be used more than a few hours in advance Animportant convention in the trucking industry is that truck own-ers have the ultimate say with respect to how trucks are used8 Acommon expression of this convention is that there is ldquono forceddispatchrdquo for owner-operators Taken literally ldquono forced dis-patchrdquo refers to trucks rather than drivers since carriers cannotliterally force any driver to accept dispatchersrsquo assignmentmdashcompany drivers can quit as well But unlike company driversowner-operators can take their truck and use it as they wish9

Note that in principle the party with residual control rightsneed not be the residual claimant on its value But if the partythat held residual control rights over the truck did not also haveresidual claimancy this party would not have incentives to utilizethese rights in a way that preserves trucksrsquo value A carrier whoheld residual control rights but not residual claims on a truckwould have strong incentives to use the truck for hauls that arehard on the truckrsquos engine for example This is an importantreason for the ldquono forced dispatchrdquo convention and is why ar-rangements whereby owner-operators sign away their right torefuse backhaulsmdasharrangements that would give carriers resid-ual control rights but not residual claimancymdashdo not appear inthis industry10

8 This convention which links ownership of a physical asset to residualdecision rights with respect to the assetrsquos use parallels Grossman and Hartrsquos[1986] definition of asset ownership

9 A company driver who quits far from his base has to find his own wayhome An owner-operator can much more credibly threaten to walk away (actuallydrive away) from the bargaining In interviews with drivers and dispatchers welearned that whether the driver owns both the tractor and the trailer or only thetractor matters little to bargaining costs

10 As discussed at length in a previous version of the paper [Baker andHubbard 2000] there exist long-term contracts between owner-operators andcarriers whose provisions would appear to restrict how owner-operators can usetheir trucks But the formal lease terms are misleading they exist for regulatoryreasons unrelated to our analysis Carriers do not deny owner-operators access totheir trucks even when drivers unilaterally terminate leases prematurely The

1448 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

The incentive benefits of having drivers own their truck areclear if the driver owns the truck he has incentives (through hisresidual claim on the truckrsquos value) to make optimal trade-offswith respect to how the truck is driven If the driver does not ownthe truck then absent some contracting technology he will makedecisions about how to drive that are likely to be inefficient

The incentives induced by driver ownership with respect tonegotiation over the backhaul are more complex When the car-rier owns the truck then if a profitable backhaul is found thecarrier can mandate that the truck be used for that backhaulHowever if the driver owns the truck the carrier cannot do soThis can lead to at least three forms of inefficiencies which wecollectively label ldquobargaining costsrdquo First the carrier may be lesslikely to try to arrange a highly time-critical pickup (even thoughit might be highly profitable) Second the driverrsquos ability to con-trol how his truck is used may encourage him to engage in costlysearch for alternative hauls in order to strengthen his bargainingposition with the dispatcher Finally even if neither party en-gages in these sorts of ex ante inefficient actions to maintain orimprove their bargaining positions they may engage in costly expost haggling that wastes time and effort The likelihood of all ofthese types of behavior increases when the driver owns the truckand can threaten not to carry a particular backhaul lined up bythe dispatcher

This depiction of the costs and benefits of owner-operators isconsistent with characterizations in the literature Dispatchersoften claim that they have more difficulty inducing owner-opera-tors to accept hauls than company drivers and that this makes itmore difficult to plan schedules In his book Maister [1980] ob-serves that ldquoOwner-operatorsrsquo refusal of loads is by a largemargin the most commonly reported disadvantage in utilizingowner-operators rather than a company-owned fleet Refusalsmean that the carrier can plan less well and as we have seenoperational planning is a difficult task for any irregular-routecarrier because of the lsquoreal-timersquo nature of planning required ofsuch carriersrdquo [p 97]

control right provisions in owner-operator leases are for our intents and purposesa legal fiction

1449CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

IIB Empirical Propositions

We propose that the optimal ownership of trucks is influ-enced by the relative costs of these two organizational structuresthe agency costs that can arise when the driver does not own thetruck and the bargaining costs (both ex ante and ex post) thatcan result when the driver does own the truck We develop twocross-sectional propositions about asset ownership in truckingbased on this simple trade-off These propositions require that weare able to differentiate hauls by the magnitude of these incentiveproblems and these bargaining costs

As discussed above longer hauls are likely to induce greaterdriving problems This is because on longer hauls drivers havemore scope to drive fast for some period of time and then use thetime saved to engage in other types of activities Thus the inef-ficient driving problem should be greater for long hauls In con-trast bargaining costs should not systematically differ with dis-tance when looking across hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area situations where backhauls are valuable The ineffi-ciencies associated with driver ownership are primarily a func-tion of whether backhauls exist and would be profitable and thebargaining environment varies little depending on whethertrucks are say 150 or 300 miles from their base We thereforepropose (P1) that among hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area longer hauls are more likely to be completed byowner-operators

In addition certain types of hauls use trailers that are morelikely to be used for backhauls than others Hauls carried ingeneral purpose trailers such as nonrefrigerated vans are morelikely to suffer from costly backhaul negotiations than hauls thatuse trailers for which there tends to be little backhaul demandSince hauls without backhaul problems will not suffer from bar-gaining costs they are more likely to be carried by owner-opera-tors We divide trailers into two groupsmdashthose for which aggre-gate demands are likely to be bidirectional and those for whichthey are likely to be unidirectionalmdashand propose (P2) that (hold-ing the haul length constant) hauls that use unidirectional trail-ers are more likely to be carried by owner-operators11

Evidence with respect to P2 is important because it sheds

11 We also break down the ldquobackhaulrdquo group slightly more finely and showthat nonrefrigerated vans (which are the most likely to have bidirectional de-mand) are still more likely to be company owned

1450 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

light on the costs associated with driver ownership In particularfinding evidence consistent with P2 is inconsistent with the hy-pothesis that optimal asset ownership reflects a simple trade-offbetween incentives and risk-sharing unless any risk-relatedcosts associated with driver ownership were systematically lowerfor unidirectional than bidirectional trailers Evidence consistentwith P2 would also be inconsistent with a simplistic predictionthat asset specialization should lead to greater integration Uni-directional trailers tend to be those that are specialized to par-ticular types of cargo and P2 states that hauls that usesuch trailers should be relatively more likely to be carried byowner-operators12

Our main empirical proposition relates however to howownership patterns change with the introduction of OBCs andexploits the time dimension of our data If OBCs reduce theinefficient driving problem by making good driving contractiblethey should affect the trade-off between driver and companyownership of the truck for a particular haul We therefore propose(P3) that driver ownership should decline with OBC adoptionThe reason for this is simple OBCs eliminate an importantadvantage of owner-operators over company drivers They reducethe agency costs associated with company drivers but do notchange the bargaining costs associated with owner-operators

Our analysis suggests an additional proposition with respectto the relationship between OBC adoption and ownership If theagency costs associated with inefficient driving are greater forlonger hauls and OBCs eliminate such costs by making drivingcontractible then OBCs reduce the agency costs associated withcompany drivers more for longer hauls As a consequence all elseequal the likelihood that a company driver is used for a haulshould increase more for longer hauls We therefore propose (P4)that the relationship between OBC adoption and ownershipchange should be stronger for long hauls than for short hauls

We also analyze whether the relationship between OBCadoption and ownership change varies between unidirectionaland bidirectional hauls This provides some additional evidenceregarding whether bargaining costs associated with backhaulsinfluence asset ownership Suppose that bargaining costs do notdiffer systematically between these classes of hauls One would

12 It would not necessarily be inconsistent with a prediction that carefullydistinguishes between assets specialized to users and assets specialized to uses

1451CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 6: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

drivers in the area This negotiation usually involves a combina-tion of moral suasion promises to assign drivers desirable haulsin the future and sometimes pecuniary compensation

IIA Asset Ownership

Truck ownership implies both residual control over how thetruck is used and a residual claim on the truckrsquos value Residualcontrol rights with respect to how trucks are used exist becauseas discussed above it is rarely optimal to specify exactly howtrucks should be used more than a few hours in advance Animportant convention in the trucking industry is that truck own-ers have the ultimate say with respect to how trucks are used8 Acommon expression of this convention is that there is ldquono forceddispatchrdquo for owner-operators Taken literally ldquono forced dis-patchrdquo refers to trucks rather than drivers since carriers cannotliterally force any driver to accept dispatchersrsquo assignmentmdashcompany drivers can quit as well But unlike company driversowner-operators can take their truck and use it as they wish9

Note that in principle the party with residual control rightsneed not be the residual claimant on its value But if the partythat held residual control rights over the truck did not also haveresidual claimancy this party would not have incentives to utilizethese rights in a way that preserves trucksrsquo value A carrier whoheld residual control rights but not residual claims on a truckwould have strong incentives to use the truck for hauls that arehard on the truckrsquos engine for example This is an importantreason for the ldquono forced dispatchrdquo convention and is why ar-rangements whereby owner-operators sign away their right torefuse backhaulsmdasharrangements that would give carriers resid-ual control rights but not residual claimancymdashdo not appear inthis industry10

8 This convention which links ownership of a physical asset to residualdecision rights with respect to the assetrsquos use parallels Grossman and Hartrsquos[1986] definition of asset ownership

9 A company driver who quits far from his base has to find his own wayhome An owner-operator can much more credibly threaten to walk away (actuallydrive away) from the bargaining In interviews with drivers and dispatchers welearned that whether the driver owns both the tractor and the trailer or only thetractor matters little to bargaining costs

10 As discussed at length in a previous version of the paper [Baker andHubbard 2000] there exist long-term contracts between owner-operators andcarriers whose provisions would appear to restrict how owner-operators can usetheir trucks But the formal lease terms are misleading they exist for regulatoryreasons unrelated to our analysis Carriers do not deny owner-operators access totheir trucks even when drivers unilaterally terminate leases prematurely The

1448 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

The incentive benefits of having drivers own their truck areclear if the driver owns the truck he has incentives (through hisresidual claim on the truckrsquos value) to make optimal trade-offswith respect to how the truck is driven If the driver does not ownthe truck then absent some contracting technology he will makedecisions about how to drive that are likely to be inefficient

The incentives induced by driver ownership with respect tonegotiation over the backhaul are more complex When the car-rier owns the truck then if a profitable backhaul is found thecarrier can mandate that the truck be used for that backhaulHowever if the driver owns the truck the carrier cannot do soThis can lead to at least three forms of inefficiencies which wecollectively label ldquobargaining costsrdquo First the carrier may be lesslikely to try to arrange a highly time-critical pickup (even thoughit might be highly profitable) Second the driverrsquos ability to con-trol how his truck is used may encourage him to engage in costlysearch for alternative hauls in order to strengthen his bargainingposition with the dispatcher Finally even if neither party en-gages in these sorts of ex ante inefficient actions to maintain orimprove their bargaining positions they may engage in costly expost haggling that wastes time and effort The likelihood of all ofthese types of behavior increases when the driver owns the truckand can threaten not to carry a particular backhaul lined up bythe dispatcher

This depiction of the costs and benefits of owner-operators isconsistent with characterizations in the literature Dispatchersoften claim that they have more difficulty inducing owner-opera-tors to accept hauls than company drivers and that this makes itmore difficult to plan schedules In his book Maister [1980] ob-serves that ldquoOwner-operatorsrsquo refusal of loads is by a largemargin the most commonly reported disadvantage in utilizingowner-operators rather than a company-owned fleet Refusalsmean that the carrier can plan less well and as we have seenoperational planning is a difficult task for any irregular-routecarrier because of the lsquoreal-timersquo nature of planning required ofsuch carriersrdquo [p 97]

control right provisions in owner-operator leases are for our intents and purposesa legal fiction

1449CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

IIB Empirical Propositions

We propose that the optimal ownership of trucks is influ-enced by the relative costs of these two organizational structuresthe agency costs that can arise when the driver does not own thetruck and the bargaining costs (both ex ante and ex post) thatcan result when the driver does own the truck We develop twocross-sectional propositions about asset ownership in truckingbased on this simple trade-off These propositions require that weare able to differentiate hauls by the magnitude of these incentiveproblems and these bargaining costs

As discussed above longer hauls are likely to induce greaterdriving problems This is because on longer hauls drivers havemore scope to drive fast for some period of time and then use thetime saved to engage in other types of activities Thus the inef-ficient driving problem should be greater for long hauls In con-trast bargaining costs should not systematically differ with dis-tance when looking across hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area situations where backhauls are valuable The ineffi-ciencies associated with driver ownership are primarily a func-tion of whether backhauls exist and would be profitable and thebargaining environment varies little depending on whethertrucks are say 150 or 300 miles from their base We thereforepropose (P1) that among hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area longer hauls are more likely to be completed byowner-operators

In addition certain types of hauls use trailers that are morelikely to be used for backhauls than others Hauls carried ingeneral purpose trailers such as nonrefrigerated vans are morelikely to suffer from costly backhaul negotiations than hauls thatuse trailers for which there tends to be little backhaul demandSince hauls without backhaul problems will not suffer from bar-gaining costs they are more likely to be carried by owner-opera-tors We divide trailers into two groupsmdashthose for which aggre-gate demands are likely to be bidirectional and those for whichthey are likely to be unidirectionalmdashand propose (P2) that (hold-ing the haul length constant) hauls that use unidirectional trail-ers are more likely to be carried by owner-operators11

Evidence with respect to P2 is important because it sheds

11 We also break down the ldquobackhaulrdquo group slightly more finely and showthat nonrefrigerated vans (which are the most likely to have bidirectional de-mand) are still more likely to be company owned

1450 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

light on the costs associated with driver ownership In particularfinding evidence consistent with P2 is inconsistent with the hy-pothesis that optimal asset ownership reflects a simple trade-offbetween incentives and risk-sharing unless any risk-relatedcosts associated with driver ownership were systematically lowerfor unidirectional than bidirectional trailers Evidence consistentwith P2 would also be inconsistent with a simplistic predictionthat asset specialization should lead to greater integration Uni-directional trailers tend to be those that are specialized to par-ticular types of cargo and P2 states that hauls that usesuch trailers should be relatively more likely to be carried byowner-operators12

Our main empirical proposition relates however to howownership patterns change with the introduction of OBCs andexploits the time dimension of our data If OBCs reduce theinefficient driving problem by making good driving contractiblethey should affect the trade-off between driver and companyownership of the truck for a particular haul We therefore propose(P3) that driver ownership should decline with OBC adoptionThe reason for this is simple OBCs eliminate an importantadvantage of owner-operators over company drivers They reducethe agency costs associated with company drivers but do notchange the bargaining costs associated with owner-operators

Our analysis suggests an additional proposition with respectto the relationship between OBC adoption and ownership If theagency costs associated with inefficient driving are greater forlonger hauls and OBCs eliminate such costs by making drivingcontractible then OBCs reduce the agency costs associated withcompany drivers more for longer hauls As a consequence all elseequal the likelihood that a company driver is used for a haulshould increase more for longer hauls We therefore propose (P4)that the relationship between OBC adoption and ownershipchange should be stronger for long hauls than for short hauls

We also analyze whether the relationship between OBCadoption and ownership change varies between unidirectionaland bidirectional hauls This provides some additional evidenceregarding whether bargaining costs associated with backhaulsinfluence asset ownership Suppose that bargaining costs do notdiffer systematically between these classes of hauls One would

12 It would not necessarily be inconsistent with a prediction that carefullydistinguishes between assets specialized to users and assets specialized to uses

1451CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 7: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

The incentive benefits of having drivers own their truck areclear if the driver owns the truck he has incentives (through hisresidual claim on the truckrsquos value) to make optimal trade-offswith respect to how the truck is driven If the driver does not ownthe truck then absent some contracting technology he will makedecisions about how to drive that are likely to be inefficient

The incentives induced by driver ownership with respect tonegotiation over the backhaul are more complex When the car-rier owns the truck then if a profitable backhaul is found thecarrier can mandate that the truck be used for that backhaulHowever if the driver owns the truck the carrier cannot do soThis can lead to at least three forms of inefficiencies which wecollectively label ldquobargaining costsrdquo First the carrier may be lesslikely to try to arrange a highly time-critical pickup (even thoughit might be highly profitable) Second the driverrsquos ability to con-trol how his truck is used may encourage him to engage in costlysearch for alternative hauls in order to strengthen his bargainingposition with the dispatcher Finally even if neither party en-gages in these sorts of ex ante inefficient actions to maintain orimprove their bargaining positions they may engage in costly expost haggling that wastes time and effort The likelihood of all ofthese types of behavior increases when the driver owns the truckand can threaten not to carry a particular backhaul lined up bythe dispatcher

This depiction of the costs and benefits of owner-operators isconsistent with characterizations in the literature Dispatchersoften claim that they have more difficulty inducing owner-opera-tors to accept hauls than company drivers and that this makes itmore difficult to plan schedules In his book Maister [1980] ob-serves that ldquoOwner-operatorsrsquo refusal of loads is by a largemargin the most commonly reported disadvantage in utilizingowner-operators rather than a company-owned fleet Refusalsmean that the carrier can plan less well and as we have seenoperational planning is a difficult task for any irregular-routecarrier because of the lsquoreal-timersquo nature of planning required ofsuch carriersrdquo [p 97]

control right provisions in owner-operator leases are for our intents and purposesa legal fiction

1449CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

IIB Empirical Propositions

We propose that the optimal ownership of trucks is influ-enced by the relative costs of these two organizational structuresthe agency costs that can arise when the driver does not own thetruck and the bargaining costs (both ex ante and ex post) thatcan result when the driver does own the truck We develop twocross-sectional propositions about asset ownership in truckingbased on this simple trade-off These propositions require that weare able to differentiate hauls by the magnitude of these incentiveproblems and these bargaining costs

As discussed above longer hauls are likely to induce greaterdriving problems This is because on longer hauls drivers havemore scope to drive fast for some period of time and then use thetime saved to engage in other types of activities Thus the inef-ficient driving problem should be greater for long hauls In con-trast bargaining costs should not systematically differ with dis-tance when looking across hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area situations where backhauls are valuable The ineffi-ciencies associated with driver ownership are primarily a func-tion of whether backhauls exist and would be profitable and thebargaining environment varies little depending on whethertrucks are say 150 or 300 miles from their base We thereforepropose (P1) that among hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area longer hauls are more likely to be completed byowner-operators

In addition certain types of hauls use trailers that are morelikely to be used for backhauls than others Hauls carried ingeneral purpose trailers such as nonrefrigerated vans are morelikely to suffer from costly backhaul negotiations than hauls thatuse trailers for which there tends to be little backhaul demandSince hauls without backhaul problems will not suffer from bar-gaining costs they are more likely to be carried by owner-opera-tors We divide trailers into two groupsmdashthose for which aggre-gate demands are likely to be bidirectional and those for whichthey are likely to be unidirectionalmdashand propose (P2) that (hold-ing the haul length constant) hauls that use unidirectional trail-ers are more likely to be carried by owner-operators11

Evidence with respect to P2 is important because it sheds

11 We also break down the ldquobackhaulrdquo group slightly more finely and showthat nonrefrigerated vans (which are the most likely to have bidirectional de-mand) are still more likely to be company owned

1450 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

light on the costs associated with driver ownership In particularfinding evidence consistent with P2 is inconsistent with the hy-pothesis that optimal asset ownership reflects a simple trade-offbetween incentives and risk-sharing unless any risk-relatedcosts associated with driver ownership were systematically lowerfor unidirectional than bidirectional trailers Evidence consistentwith P2 would also be inconsistent with a simplistic predictionthat asset specialization should lead to greater integration Uni-directional trailers tend to be those that are specialized to par-ticular types of cargo and P2 states that hauls that usesuch trailers should be relatively more likely to be carried byowner-operators12

Our main empirical proposition relates however to howownership patterns change with the introduction of OBCs andexploits the time dimension of our data If OBCs reduce theinefficient driving problem by making good driving contractiblethey should affect the trade-off between driver and companyownership of the truck for a particular haul We therefore propose(P3) that driver ownership should decline with OBC adoptionThe reason for this is simple OBCs eliminate an importantadvantage of owner-operators over company drivers They reducethe agency costs associated with company drivers but do notchange the bargaining costs associated with owner-operators

Our analysis suggests an additional proposition with respectto the relationship between OBC adoption and ownership If theagency costs associated with inefficient driving are greater forlonger hauls and OBCs eliminate such costs by making drivingcontractible then OBCs reduce the agency costs associated withcompany drivers more for longer hauls As a consequence all elseequal the likelihood that a company driver is used for a haulshould increase more for longer hauls We therefore propose (P4)that the relationship between OBC adoption and ownershipchange should be stronger for long hauls than for short hauls

We also analyze whether the relationship between OBCadoption and ownership change varies between unidirectionaland bidirectional hauls This provides some additional evidenceregarding whether bargaining costs associated with backhaulsinfluence asset ownership Suppose that bargaining costs do notdiffer systematically between these classes of hauls One would

12 It would not necessarily be inconsistent with a prediction that carefullydistinguishes between assets specialized to users and assets specialized to uses

1451CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 8: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

IIB Empirical Propositions

We propose that the optimal ownership of trucks is influ-enced by the relative costs of these two organizational structuresthe agency costs that can arise when the driver does not own thetruck and the bargaining costs (both ex ante and ex post) thatcan result when the driver does own the truck We develop twocross-sectional propositions about asset ownership in truckingbased on this simple trade-off These propositions require that weare able to differentiate hauls by the magnitude of these incentiveproblems and these bargaining costs

As discussed above longer hauls are likely to induce greaterdriving problems This is because on longer hauls drivers havemore scope to drive fast for some period of time and then use thetime saved to engage in other types of activities Thus the inef-ficient driving problem should be greater for long hauls In con-trast bargaining costs should not systematically differ with dis-tance when looking across hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area situations where backhauls are valuable The ineffi-ciencies associated with driver ownership are primarily a func-tion of whether backhauls exist and would be profitable and thebargaining environment varies little depending on whethertrucks are say 150 or 300 miles from their base We thereforepropose (P1) that among hauls that take trucks outside of theirlocal area longer hauls are more likely to be completed byowner-operators

In addition certain types of hauls use trailers that are morelikely to be used for backhauls than others Hauls carried ingeneral purpose trailers such as nonrefrigerated vans are morelikely to suffer from costly backhaul negotiations than hauls thatuse trailers for which there tends to be little backhaul demandSince hauls without backhaul problems will not suffer from bar-gaining costs they are more likely to be carried by owner-opera-tors We divide trailers into two groupsmdashthose for which aggre-gate demands are likely to be bidirectional and those for whichthey are likely to be unidirectionalmdashand propose (P2) that (hold-ing the haul length constant) hauls that use unidirectional trail-ers are more likely to be carried by owner-operators11

Evidence with respect to P2 is important because it sheds

11 We also break down the ldquobackhaulrdquo group slightly more finely and showthat nonrefrigerated vans (which are the most likely to have bidirectional de-mand) are still more likely to be company owned

1450 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

light on the costs associated with driver ownership In particularfinding evidence consistent with P2 is inconsistent with the hy-pothesis that optimal asset ownership reflects a simple trade-offbetween incentives and risk-sharing unless any risk-relatedcosts associated with driver ownership were systematically lowerfor unidirectional than bidirectional trailers Evidence consistentwith P2 would also be inconsistent with a simplistic predictionthat asset specialization should lead to greater integration Uni-directional trailers tend to be those that are specialized to par-ticular types of cargo and P2 states that hauls that usesuch trailers should be relatively more likely to be carried byowner-operators12

Our main empirical proposition relates however to howownership patterns change with the introduction of OBCs andexploits the time dimension of our data If OBCs reduce theinefficient driving problem by making good driving contractiblethey should affect the trade-off between driver and companyownership of the truck for a particular haul We therefore propose(P3) that driver ownership should decline with OBC adoptionThe reason for this is simple OBCs eliminate an importantadvantage of owner-operators over company drivers They reducethe agency costs associated with company drivers but do notchange the bargaining costs associated with owner-operators

Our analysis suggests an additional proposition with respectto the relationship between OBC adoption and ownership If theagency costs associated with inefficient driving are greater forlonger hauls and OBCs eliminate such costs by making drivingcontractible then OBCs reduce the agency costs associated withcompany drivers more for longer hauls As a consequence all elseequal the likelihood that a company driver is used for a haulshould increase more for longer hauls We therefore propose (P4)that the relationship between OBC adoption and ownershipchange should be stronger for long hauls than for short hauls

We also analyze whether the relationship between OBCadoption and ownership change varies between unidirectionaland bidirectional hauls This provides some additional evidenceregarding whether bargaining costs associated with backhaulsinfluence asset ownership Suppose that bargaining costs do notdiffer systematically between these classes of hauls One would

12 It would not necessarily be inconsistent with a prediction that carefullydistinguishes between assets specialized to users and assets specialized to uses

1451CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 9: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

light on the costs associated with driver ownership In particularfinding evidence consistent with P2 is inconsistent with the hy-pothesis that optimal asset ownership reflects a simple trade-offbetween incentives and risk-sharing unless any risk-relatedcosts associated with driver ownership were systematically lowerfor unidirectional than bidirectional trailers Evidence consistentwith P2 would also be inconsistent with a simplistic predictionthat asset specialization should lead to greater integration Uni-directional trailers tend to be those that are specialized to par-ticular types of cargo and P2 states that hauls that usesuch trailers should be relatively more likely to be carried byowner-operators12

Our main empirical proposition relates however to howownership patterns change with the introduction of OBCs andexploits the time dimension of our data If OBCs reduce theinefficient driving problem by making good driving contractiblethey should affect the trade-off between driver and companyownership of the truck for a particular haul We therefore propose(P3) that driver ownership should decline with OBC adoptionThe reason for this is simple OBCs eliminate an importantadvantage of owner-operators over company drivers They reducethe agency costs associated with company drivers but do notchange the bargaining costs associated with owner-operators

Our analysis suggests an additional proposition with respectto the relationship between OBC adoption and ownership If theagency costs associated with inefficient driving are greater forlonger hauls and OBCs eliminate such costs by making drivingcontractible then OBCs reduce the agency costs associated withcompany drivers more for longer hauls As a consequence all elseequal the likelihood that a company driver is used for a haulshould increase more for longer hauls We therefore propose (P4)that the relationship between OBC adoption and ownershipchange should be stronger for long hauls than for short hauls

We also analyze whether the relationship between OBCadoption and ownership change varies between unidirectionaland bidirectional hauls This provides some additional evidenceregarding whether bargaining costs associated with backhaulsinfluence asset ownership Suppose that bargaining costs do notdiffer systematically between these classes of hauls One would

12 It would not necessarily be inconsistent with a prediction that carefullydistinguishes between assets specialized to users and assets specialized to uses

1451CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 10: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

then not expect the relationship between OBC adoption and own-ership to differ Finding that this relationship varies betweenthese classes of hauls therefore provides additional evidence thatthe contracting environment varies in this dimension and wouldbe consistent with the proposition that bargaining problems as-sociated with the backhaul influence ownership patterns

Finally we will examine the hypothesis that OBC adoptionshould lead company drivers to drive better by analyzing how fueleconomy which is correlated with how drivers drive varies withwhether trucks have OBCs installed We propose (P5) that thisrelationship should be stronger when comparing across companydrivers than across owner-operators We discuss this test and itsempirical implementation in more detail in Section V after wehave presented the data and our results with respect to owner-ship and adoption

III DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL PATTERNS

The data are from the 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory andUse Surveys (TIUS) (See Bureau of the Census [1989 1995] andHubbard [2000]) The TIUS is a survey of the nationrsquos truckingfleet that the Census takes every five years The Census sendsforms to the owners of a random sample of trucks and asksowners questions about the characteristics and use of their truckThe characteristics include trucksrsquo physical characteristics suchas make and model year as well as whether certain aftermarketequipment is installedmdashincluding whether and what class ofOBCs are installed Questions about use yield information on thestate in which the truck was based how far from home it wasgenerally operated the class of trailer to which it was generallyattached and the class of products it primarily hauled13 Fortrucks that operate outside of their local area the class of prod-ucts trucks primarily haul reflects what they carry onldquofronthaulsrdquo since the cargo individual trucks carry on fronthaulsis more consistent than the cargo they carry on ldquobackhaulsrdquo Thesurvey also asks whether the truck was driven by an owner-operator or a company driver This paper uses observations ofdiesel-powered truck-tractors the front halves of tractor-trailer

13 Trucks are not always attached to the same trailer However it turns outthat trailers are detached from tractors less than one might expect and mosttractors end up pulling one type of trailer most of the time

1452 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 11: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

combinations We eliminate observations of those that haul goodsoff-road haul trash are driven for less than 500 miles during theyear or have missing values for relevant variables This leaves19308 observations for 1987 and 35204 for 1992 The sample islarger for 1992 because the Census surveyed more trucks

These data are well-suited to studies of organizational formsince theories of organizational form commonly take the transac-tion as the unit of analysis Both the analytic framework pre-sented above and the empirical framework we present below takethis as a starting point Because individual trucks tend to be usedfor similar types of hauls from period to period observing own-ership and OBC use at the truck level is much like observingownership and OBC use for a sequence of similar transactionsWe will therefore think of these observations of trucks as obser-vations of hauls in our analysis and interpret our empiricalresults using this perspective

Table I reports owner-operator shares for different haul cate-gories in 1987 and 1992 In 1987 146 percent of tractor-trailers

TABLE ISHARE OF TRUCKS DRIVEN BY OWNER-OPERATORS BY TRAILER AND DISTANCE

Alldistances

How far from its base was the truckgenerally operated

50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

1987 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0146 0084 0118 0211

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0181 0136 0198 0286ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0140 0070 0101 0208

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0179 0081 0121 0269

Nonrefrigerated vans 0125 0083 0095 01581992 owner-operator sharesAll trailers 0101 0045 0091 0139

ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers 0124 0062 0155 0202ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers 0097 0039 0075 0136

Platform refrigeratedvans tank trucks 0114 0038 0076 0163

Nonrefrigerated vans 0091 0046 0084 0110

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992 ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailers includedump grain livestock and logging trailers ldquoBackhaulrdquo trailers include all others

1453CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 12: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

were driven by their owners14 The share is higher for trucks usedfor longer hauls over one-fifth of trucks primarily used for longhauls were owner-operated Looking across distances for whichbackhauls are valuable the owner-operator share is higher fortrucks that generally operate more than 200 miles from theirbase than those that generally operate between 50 and 200 milesfrom their base This is consistent with (P1) We split the sampleaccording to whether trucks were generally attached to trailerswhere demands are usually unidirectional ldquoNo backhaulrdquo trailersinclude dump grain body livestock and logging trailers ldquoBack-haulrdquo trailers include all other trailer types vans refrigeratedvans platforms and tank trucks make up most of this category(and are the most prevalent trailers in general) About 18 percentof trucks commonly attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers were own-er-operated compared with 14 percent of trucks commonly at-tached to ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers Moving to the right a greater shareof trucks attached to ldquono backhaulrdquo trailers are owner-operated ineach distance category We further analyze the importance of thebackhaul negotiation problem by examining two subcategories ofthe ldquobackhaulrdquo trailers It may be the case that hauls usingnonrefrigerated vans (the most general-purpose trailer) are morelikely to be bidirectional than platforms refrigerated vans andtank trucks While we are not confident that this distinction is assharp as that between the ldquono backhaulrdquo and ldquobackhaulrdquo trailersthe comparison provides similar results The owner-operatorshare is smaller for vans than these other trailer types overalland the difference is largest for long hauls Our evidence is thusconsistent with (P1) and (P2) Owner-operators are used more forlonger (nonlocal) hauls and for hauls that use trailers for whichdemands tend to be unidirectional rather than bidirectional

The bottom panel reports analogous figures for 1992 Theowner-operator share fell by about 30 percent between 1987 and1992 from 146 percent to 101 percent and declined in each ofthe distance-trailer cells reported in this table

Table II reports OBC adoption rates by organizational formand distance for 1992 OBC adoption is negligible during 1987and is treated as zero for that year throughout the paper Adop-

14 Note that the sample contains trucks within both private and for-hirefleets About half of the nationrsquos truck-tractors operate within private fleets alltrucks within private fleets are driven by company drivers Also the 1992 Surveycontains more detailed distance categories than the 1987 Survey We convert thefive 1992 categories to the three 1987 ones when comparing the two years

1454 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 13: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

tion is higher for trucks driven by company drivers than owner-operators (for whom OBCs are useful only for improving mainte-nance and coordination) and increases with how far trucks op-erate from home Almost 35 percent of trucks used for hauls of500 or more miles and operated by company drivers had eithertrip recorders or EVMS installed

Tables I and II thus indicate that OBC adoption coincidedwith ownership changes in the aggregate Hauls in generalmoved from owner-operators to company drivers at the same timeOBCs were beginning to diffuse Ownership changes and OBCadoption were both greatest for long hauls These broad trendsset the stage for more detailed analysis that investigates whetherownership changes and OBC adoption are related and thus pro-vides evidence with respect to (P3) and (P4) The rest of thesection develops the empirical framework that supports ouranalysis

IIIA Cross-Sectional Relationships Individual Data

Our analytic framework in keeping with the organizationaleconomics literature assumes that efficient organizational formsare chosen We therefore begin by specifying total surplus for aparticular haul under the two organizational alternatives LetSiot represent total surplus of haul i at time t if a driver owns thetruck and Sict represent total surplus of haul i if a carrier owns

TABLE II1992 ON-BOARD COMPUTER ADOPTION RATES

How far from its base was the truck generally operated

50miles

50ndash100miles

100ndash200miles

200ndash500miles

500miles

OBCOwner-operator 0037 0031 0040 0070 0098Company driver 0071 0126 0211 0274 0348Trip recorderOwner-operator 0017 0012 0009 0023 0024Company driver 0043 0078 0127 0120 0084EVMSOwner-operator 0020 0020 0031 0048 0074Company driver 0028 0049 0084 0154 0265

Source 1987 and 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys authorsrsquo calculations All calculations useCensus-provided sampling weights N 19308 for 1987 N 35204 for 1992

1455CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 14: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

the truck Note that when haul i is nonlocal it has a fronthauland backhaul component The characteristics of the former areknown at the time organizational form is chosen but not thelatter for example the backhaul will necessarily use the sametrailer as the fronthaul but need not involve the same productSpecify these as

1Siot Xito Ziot odit εiot

Sict Xitc Zict cdit εict

where Xit and Zi are vectors depicting time-varying and time-invariant haul characteristics and dit is a dummy variable thatequals 1 if OBCs are used for the haul εiot and εict capture howhaul characteristics not observed by the econometrician but ob-served by carriers and drivers affect surplus when using owner-operators and company drivers respectively

Assuming that ownership choices are efficient company driv-ers will be chosen if and only if Sict Siot Assuming that εiot andεict are iid type I extreme value the probability the carrier ownsthe truck used for haul i conditional on Xit is

2Pit

eXitcoZictotditco

1 eXitcoZictotditco

eXitZitdit

1 eXitZitdit Xit Zit dit

where (a) exp(a)(1 exp(a))The top panel of Table III contains results from estimating this

model using simple logits on the 1992 data We present estimates forall distances then for short medium and long hauls separately Thedependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truckwas driven by a company driver and zero if an owner-operator Theindependent variables are a dummy variable that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise a vector of dummiesthat indicate how far from home the truck generally operated andln(trailer density) The latter is the number of trucks based in thesame state that are attached to the same trailer type normalized bythe developed land in the state This is a measure of local fronthaulmarket thickness it is high for logging trailers in Oregon and low inKansas for example (See Hubbard [2001] for an extensivediscussion)

In the first column the coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive

1456 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 15: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

and significant hauls that use trucks with OBCs tend to be com-pleted by company drivers more than hauls that do not use truckswith OBCs The magnitude of the point estimate implies that hold-ing the controls at their means the probability that a haul is com-pleted by a company driver is about 11 percentage points highermdashabout 096 rather than about 085mdashif the truck has an OBC than ifit does not15 The coefficient on the OBC dummy is positive andsignificant for short medium and long hauls but the correlationbetween OBC use and truck ownership is weakest for short haulsThe cross-sectional evidence thus is consistent with P3 and P4 butis also consistent with hypotheses where adoption need not lead to

15 (X 1587) (X) 096 085 011 where X is the meanvalue of the controls and are the coefficient estimates associated with thesecontrols

TABLE IIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashLEVELS ESTIMATES 1992

All distances 50 miles 50ndash200 miles 200 miles

Individual trucksOBC 1587 0728 1717 1584

(0071) (0292) (0172) (0081)N 33283 7998 11429 13856

Cohorts observed ownership and adoption sharesOBC 1560 2701 1204 1698

(0189) (2018) (0389) (0228)N 426 38 123 265

Cohorts Bayesian estimates of ownership and adoption sharesOBC 0681 3552 1381 1447

(0070) (0367) (0153) (0106)N 3676 1049 1332 1295

This table presents the coefficients from three logit specifications The top panel uses observations ofindividual trucks the dependent variable is a dummy variable that equals one if the truck is driven by acompany driver and zero otherwise The coefficient reported above is that on a dummy that equals one if thetruck has an OBC installed and zero otherwise Observations are weighted using Census sampling weights

The middle and bottom panels use truck cohorts where cohorts are defined by state-product-trailer-distance combinations In these multivariate regressions the dependent variables are ln(company drivershareowner-operator share) in 1987 and 1992 The coefficient reported above is that on the share of truckswithin the cohort with OBCs installed In the middle panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are theactual shares we include only cohorts with nonzero shares of company drivers and owner-operators in bothyears In the bottom panel the ownership and OBC adoption shares are constructed using the ldquoBayesianrdquoformula as described in the text Cohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r1987)k(r 1987) n(r 1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in timet and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two sided t-test of size 005

1457CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 16: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

changes in ownership For example one would expect OBC use andcarrier ownership to be correlated in the cross section if the returnsto monitoring are greater when trucks are not driver-owned Thetime dimension of our data provides a significant advantage inconfronting this issue

IIIB Cohorts

The data are multiple cross sections rather than panel datawe do not observe exactly the same truck from period to period Toexploit the datarsquos time dimension we construct ldquocohortsrdquo of indi-vidual observations based on state-product-trailer-distance com-binations that are observed in both of our sample periods Anexample is ldquolong-distance hauls of food in refrigerated vans bytrucks based in Californiardquo There are 131274 possible combina-tions (51 states33 products26 trailers3 distances) only about3 percent of these have positive observations in both yearsmainly because it is rare for a product class to be hauled in morethan a few trailer types (transportation equipment is neverhauled in tank trucks for example) We base cohorts on state-product-trailer-distance combinations because it aggregates thedata up to narrowly defined haul segments Defining cohortsnarrowly minimizes within-segment heterogeneity in haul char-acteristics which would otherwise tend to bias our estimates asexplained below Our empirical work will relate within-segmentchanges in OBC use to changes in driver ownership of trucksdoes the owner-operator share decrease the most in segmentswhere OBC adoption is greatest and is there evidence that adop-tion causes ownership to change This will provide evidence re-garding whether and how changes in contractibility relate tochanges in the comparative advantage of using company driversrelative to owner-operators

The first column of Table IV presents summary statistics forthe 3676 cohorts with at least one observation in both years Onaverage segments are based on relatively few observations thisis a drawback of defining cohorts narrowly Because of this manyof our segments particularly the very smallest ones have either0 percent or 100 percent company drivers in one or both yearsnearly half have 100 percent company drivers in both This is notsurprising given that most hauls are completed by companydrivers especially short hauls But it creates some empiricalproblems because our empirical specifications below are logit-based regressions that use log-odds ratios of the ownership

1458 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 17: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

shares as the dependent variable While specifying the model in aregression framework allows us to difference out cohort-specificfixed effects the log-odds ratios are only well-defined when co-horts have nonzero company driver and owner-operator shares inboth years

We have addressed the problem of 0 percent or 100 percentowner-operator shares in several ways One is simply to use onlycohorts with nonzero company driver and owner-operator sharesin both years This allows our empirical specifications to be con-nected to the framework and estimates discussed above but leadsthe analysis to be based on a relatively small part of our dataonly 426 of the 3676 cohorts satisfy this criterion As reported inTable IV these 426 cohorts tend to have many more observationsper cohort than those with a zero company driver or owner-operator share in at least one of the years they are only 12percent of the cohorts but contain over 30 percent of the obser-vations in each year The average owner-operator share tends tobe larger for these cohorts reflecting that populations in whichowner-operators are rare are more likely to have zero owner-operator shares than those where they are common In bothcolumns the owner-operator share declined by about 30 percentBelow we will show that the cross-sectional relationships be-tween OBC adoption and ownership for this subsample are alsosimilar to those in the broader population Combined this pro-

TABLE IVCOHORT SUMMARY STATISTICS

Allcohorts

Cohorts with positiveowner-operator and companydriver shares in both years

Cohorts 3676 426Observationscohort 1987 413 1061Observationscohort 1992 642 1780Owner-operator share 1987 014 027Owner-operator share 1992 010 018Change in owner-operator share 004 009OBC adoption 1992 019 024Trip recorder adoption 1992 009 010EVMS adoption 1992 010 014

Averages are computed using weights The weight of cohort r in time t equals n(r t)k(r t) where n(rt) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is the average Census sampling weight amongtrucks in cohort r in time t

1459CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 18: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

vides evidence that the relationship between ownership and OBCuse within this subsample resembles that in the broader popula-tion and provides some assurance that estimates based on thissubsample do not misrepresent relationships between OBC adop-tion and the comparative advantage of driver ownership in thepopulation as a whole This approach provides our main empiricalresults

We have also estimated linear probability specifications ofthe model This is a potentially attractive alternative because thedependent variable is well-defined for both the ldquozerordquo and theldquononzerordquo cohorts This approach has several drawbacks how-ever One is related to a general problem with linear probabilitymodels it treats changes in the owner-operator share from 005 to010 the same as those from 050 to 055 even though the formermay indicate a greater underlying change in the comparativeadvantage of driver ownership Since many of our observationshave owner-operator shares that are less than 02 this affects ourresults more than it would if the owner-operator and companydriver shares were more equal Another possibly more impor-tant drawback arises in our first-difference specifications and itarises precisely from using observations where the share of own-er-operators is zero or one in both years The problem is thatchanges in the owner-operator share do not fully reflect the un-derlying change in the comparative advantage of owner-operatorsfor these observations16 This problem is particularly relevant forus because nearly half of the 3676 cohorts with at least oneobservation in both years have no owner-operators in either yearIf OBC adoption increased the comparative advantage of com-pany drivers relative to owner-operators within these cohortsfirst difference estimates would not pick this up (as it is impos-sible for the owner-operator share to decrease further) and thiseffect would bias our estimates toward zero Other truncation-related problems arise for cohorts that have no owner-operators

16 The econometric issues that arise here are similar to those in Chamber-lainrsquos [1980] analysis of the fixed effect logit model The conditional maximumlikelihood estimator he proposes does not apply directly to our case where theobservations are grouped rather than individual data Because the dependentvariable can take any value between zero and one the sets upon which one wouldcondition would be very small To our knowledge the econometrics literature hasnot addressed the issue of first-difference estimation of qualitative responsemodels with grouped data See Maddala [1987] for a discussion of limited depen-dent variable models using individual-level panel data

1460 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 19: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

in one of the two years or that have all owner-operators in eitheror both years

Our third approach attempts to use the information in thecohorts with 0 percent or 100 percent owner-operators whileretaining the logit-based specification This approach treats theobserved owner-operator shares as informative but not fully in-formative of the true shares across the population of truckswithin each cohort Consistent with the theoretical specificationoutlined above we assume that cohorts with all or no owner-operators are observed not because one of the organizationalforms has an insurmountable comparative advantage but be-cause we observe a finite often small number of observationswithin each cohort To implement this approach we estimate thetrue owner-operator share within each cohort with a weightedaverage that puts some weight on the mean share across allcohorts in the same distance category the weight on the observedshares increases with the number of observations in the specificcohort This results in estimates of the owner-operator sharesthat are bounded away from zero and one and mitigates thetruncation-related problems discussed above For consistency wecreate estimates of the true OBC adoption shares using ananalogous procedure These estimates of the shares can bethought of as Bayesian using our data to update priors aboutthe true shares of driver ownership and OBC use within eachcohort We use the resulting posteriors which can never bezero or one in logit-based regressions analogous to those dis-cussed above The formulas for these ldquoBayesianrdquo estimates aregiven in Appendix 117

In the results section below we present two sets of estimatesthat we will use for each of our tests One set uses the observedownership and adoption shares from the 426 cohorts describedabove The other set uses the Bayesian estimates of the owner-ship and adoption shares rather than the observed shares18 Allcalculations and estimates involving cohorts use weights that

17 It is natural to base the initial priors for these Bayesian estimates ondistance-specific means because ownership and adoption vary systematically withdistance and because the cells within each of the distance categories are made upof many truck-level observations Because of the latter there is little samplingerror associated with these distance-specific means This would not be the case ifwe were to base these means on more narrowly defined categories

18 Note that while our dependent and independent variables are con-structed using a Bayesian procedure the regression coefficients themselves arenot Bayesian estimates

1461CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 20: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

reflect differences in the number of observations within cohortsand in the rate in which the Census sampled trucks19 Thuswhile the latter set of estimates incorporate information frommany small cohorts that are omitted in estimates that use theobserved shares and collectively make up much of the industrymost of the cohorts that are added receive little weightindividually

In addition we present two sets of results from linear prob-ability specifications in Appendix 2 one for the 426 ldquononzerordquocohorts and one for all cohorts As would be expected the resultsare similar to our logit-based specifications when using only thenonzero cohorts but the estimates are small and not statisticallydifferent from zero when including all of the ldquozerordquo cohorts

IIIC Aggregation-Related Biases

There is a potential aggregation-related bias introduced byusing cohorts as the unit of analysis This bias works againstfinding the relationships between OBC adoption and organiza-tional change that we predict The issue arises if as in ourframework OBCs and driver ownership are incentive substitutesand if hauls differ within cohorts In cohorts where good drivingis particularly important either OBCs or driver ownership will beused to provide driversrsquo incentives If hauls within these cohortsare identical the same solution to the driving incentive problemshould be chosen for each but if there is within-cohort heteroge-neity OBCs will be used for some hauls and driver ownership willbe used for others In cohorts where good driving is unimportantone should observe neither OBCs nor owner-operators One couldtherefore observe a negative correlation at the cohort level be-tween OBCs and carrier ownership even if the haul-level corre-lation is positive Thus aggregating the observations into cohortsbiases us against finding a positive correlation between OBCadoption and company ownership20 While we define cohorts nar-rowly to make within-cohort differences as small as possible thisdoes not necessarily eliminate this problem

We examine this problemrsquos empirical relevance below by

19 The formula is (nr1987kr1987 nr1992kr1992) 2 where nrt is thenumber of observations in cohort r and krt is the average Census weightingfactor in cohort r in year t Census sampling rates and thus krt differ primarilyacross states not across trucks within states during a particular year The resultsin Section V are robust to variations in weighting

20 See Deaton [1985] for a general depiction of this problem

1462 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 21: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

comparing estimates of cross-sectional relationships betweenOBC use and ownership from the individual and cohort dataAreas where the cohort-based cross-sectional estimates differfrom the individual-based ones indicate situations where the biasdescribed above is likely to affect our first-difference estimateswhich necessarily rely only on the cohort data

IIID Cross-Sectional Relationships Cohort Data

The cohort analog to equation (2) is

(3) srt Xrt Zrt drt

where srt is the share of hauls in cohort r at time t for whichcompany drivers are used Xrt is a vector of average haul charac-teristics for cohort r in time t Zr represents time-invariant haulcharacteristics (such as distance) and drt is the OBC adoptionrate within cohort r One can estimate the parameters of thisequation by estimating the linear regression

(4) lnsrt1 srt Xrt Zrt drt rt

Because we have two years of data we estimate the system ofequations

5

lnsr19871 sr1987 Xr1987 Zr1987

dr1987 13r r1987

lnsr19921 sr1992 Xr1992 Zr1992

dr1992 13r r1992

For purposes of the discussion below we have decomposed theerror term into time-varying (rt) and time-invariant (13r)components

Returning to Table III the bottom two panels contain theldquolevelsrdquo estimates of from multivariate regressions using thecohort data21 Note that dr1987 0 since OBCs were not in-stalled on trucks at this time thus reflects cross-sectionalrelationships between OBC use and truck ownership during1992 The dependent and independent variables are analogous to

21 We use multivariate regressions using both years of data here so that thespecifications and sample are comparable to those in the first difference resultsreported below We have also run univariate regressions that use only the 1992data thus estimating only the second equation in (5) the results are similar

1463CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 22: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

those in the top panel In the middle panel we use observedownership shares in calculating ln(srt(1 srt)) and drt andtherefore can use only the 426 cohorts that have nonzero owner-operator and company driver shares in both years In the bottompanel we use the Bayesian estimates of the ownership and adop-tion shares Since none of these estimates generate zero owner-operator or company driver shares this panel uses all 3676 co-horts with observations in both years Note that the estimates inthe middle and bottom panels are similar indicating that ourBayesian estimates do not greatly distort the cross-sectional re-lationship between OBC use and ownership

The estimates for medium and long haul cohorts are similarto those when we use the individual-level data However theestimates from the short haul cohorts are not the coefficient onOBC is strongly negative and in the bottom panel statisticallysignificant Combined the results suggest that the aggregation-related bias described above does not much affect the medium orlong haul estimates but strongly affects the short haul estimatesOne explanation for this is that there is little within-cohort het-erogeneity in the degree of the incentive problem for medium andlong hauls but significant within-cohort heterogeneity for shorthauls This would be the case if incentive problems were drivenmore by idiosyncratic factors for short hauls than medium or longhauls

Below we will find that this negative relationship for shorthauls appears in first difference estimates as well but we will notfocus on this result because the cross-sectional evidence stronglysuggests that it reflects a negative bias in the estimates

IV OBC ADOPTION AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES

This section contains the main empirical evidence in thispaper which concerns relationships between OBC adoption andownership changes Before discussing the results we describe theconditions under which one can and cannot interpret our esti-mates as reflecting causal relationships

The central issue regarding causality is that OBCs are notadopted at random In the levels estimates in Table III OBC useis econometrically endogenous if it is not independent of unob-served factors that affect ownership trade-offs that is ifE(drt13r rt) 0 This would be the case if for example thereare unobserved differences in market conditions across segments

1464 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 23: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

Suppose for example that the thickness of the backhaul marketdiffers across segments in unobserved ways in some cohorts alarger fraction of hauls are ldquobackhaulrdquo versus ldquono backhaulrdquohauls This would lead to unobserved differences in the com-parative advantage of company drivers This may in turnaffect the returns to OBC adoption within the segment espe-cially if motivating good driving is more valuable when trucksare hauling cargo than empty OBC use and driver ownershipof trucks would be negatively correlated even if OBCs did notdirectly affect ownership patterns

Taking the difference between the equations in (5) and re-calling that dr1987 0 yields

(6) lnsr19921 sr1992 lnsr19871 sr1987

Xr1992 Xr1987 Zr1992 1987

dr1992 r1992 r1987

In first-difference estimates OBC adoption is econometricallyexogenous if E(dr1992r1992 r1987) 0 that is if OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform This condition is much weaker than the correspondingcondition when estimating the model in levels because 13r whichrepresents unobserved time invariant factors that affect the com-parative advantage of driver ownership has been differenced outThe condition allows for unobserved differences in incentive prob-lems in the cross section (driver ownership may create greaterrent-seeking problems in some parts of the country than in oth-ers) but requires such differences to be constant over time Re-lationships between OBC adoption and changes in driver owner-ship therefore depict causal relationships if within market seg-ments defined by state-distance-trailer-product combinationsincentive problems with drivers are stable over time There issome reason to believe that such problems are stable since thecomposition of demand evolves very slowly in this industry (egshipping patterns in 1987 are similar to those in 1992) thecharacteristics of hauls in a segment are probably fairly similarfrom one period to the next

While our main results will come from simple first-differencespecifications we will also present and discuss results from in-strumental variables specifications We do this to provide someadditional evidence with respect to causality while unobserved

1465CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 24: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

factors affecting ownership probably vary more cross-sectionallythan over time they might not be completely stable For examplesuppose that some backhaul markets become unobservedlythicker moving some segments to move from mostly ldquono back-haulrdquo to mostly ldquobackhaulrdquo This would lead the comparativeadvantage of using company drivers to increase and may inde-pendently encourage the adoption of OBCs within these seg-ments If so OBC adoption would be correlated with unobservedchanges in the comparative advantage of driver ownership andthe simple first difference estimates need not represent howmuch OBC adoption led to changes in truck ownership

In these additional specifications we use product class dum-mies as instruments for OBC adoption Using product dummieswhich in our data reflect fronthaul cargo as instruments is at-tractive for two reasons First as described above OBC adoptionoffers benefits other than improving contracts with drivers Thesebenefits which include verifying trucksrsquo operation to third partiessuch as insurers and customers with lean inventories vary sys-tematically with the cargo Hubbard [2000] tests this propositionempirically and finds evidence in favor for example conditionalon who owns the truck and haul length OBCs are used morewhen trucks haul dangerous cargo such as petroleum or chemi-cals or haul products for which salesinventory ratios are highThus product characteristics are shifters of OBC adoption Sec-ond unobserved changes in the comparative advantage of usingan owner-operator relative to a company driver should not varyacross products given a haulrsquos location distance and trailerrequirements To see this consider two hauls with the sameorigin and destination that use the same trailer but transportdifferent products Bargaining costs should not differ betweenthese two hauls because they are identical from the perspectiveof the backhaul These costs are manifested after the truckreaches its destination at a time when its trailer is empty On theother side of the trade-off the benefits of good driving may differbetween these two hauls for example if the cost of an accidentvaries with the product being hauled But this difference shouldnot change from year to year As a consequence absent OBCs theownership changes we examine in our first-difference specifi-cations should not systematically differ across products Weassume this to be true in our instrumental variables specifica-tions below

1466 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 25: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

IVA First-Difference Estimates

Table V presents results from first-difference estimates Thedependent variable is the change in the log-odds ratio from 1987to 1992 above the independent variable of interest is the changein OBC use22 The left panel contains estimates using the ob-served ownership and adoption shares In the first column theOBC coefficient is positive and significant cohorts with high OBCadoption moved the most toward company drivers during thistime consistent with our main theoretical proposition P3 Thesecond column includes the EVMS adoption share separatelythus the coefficient on OBC picks up the organizational implica-tions of OBCsrsquo incentive-improving capabilities and that onEVMS picks up the effects of their coordination-improving capa-bilities The point estimates are both positive but neither arestatistically significantly different from zero The third andfourth columns are analogous to the first two but allow thecoefficients to differ depending on haul length In both theOBClong coefficient is positive and significant and statisticallysignificantly larger than either the OBCmedium and OBCshortcoefficients although the latter may reflect the impact of aggre-gation-related biases on the OBCshort coefficient None of theEVMS coefficients are statistically significantly different fromzero The point estimates in the first and third columns implythat an increase in the OBC adoption rate from 0 to 02 isassociated with an 8 percent overall decline in the owner-operatorshare and a 15 percent decline within the long-haul segment23

The first column estimate implies that the 20 percentage pointoverall increase in OBC use between 1987 and 1992 was relatedto slightly more than one-fourth of the 30 percent decline indriver ownership of trucks during this time

The evidence from this panel thus indicates that OBC adop-tion is correlated with movements toward company drivers and

22 The specifications also include a constant the change in trailer densityand distance dummies We have also estimated specifications that include a fullset of state dummies in the vector Zr thus accounting for possible changes instate-specific economic conditions that affect whether owner-operators or com-pany drivers are used none of our results change

23 (X 020532) (X) 0011 where X is the mean value of thecontrols and are the coefficient estimates associated with these controls whichis about 8 percent of 0146 the overall owner-operator share in 1987 The estimatereported for the long-haul segment is computed analogously as are those reportedbelow that use coefficients from other specifications

1467CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 26: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

that the relationship between adoption and organizationalchange was greater for long than medium hauls Furthermorethe organizational change appears to be related to OBCsrsquo incen-tive-improving capabilities The evidence thus is consistent withP3 and P4 above

The right panel repeats the analysis using the Bayesianestimates of the ownership and adoption shares These estimatesproduce similar evidence improvements in the contractibility ofgood driving are correlated with a decrease in driver ownership oftrucks In the first column the OBC coefficient is positive andsignificant In the second the OBC and EVMS coefficients arenow both positive and significant as the standard errors arelower than in the left panel because of the larger sample

TABLE VTRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates ofownership and adoption shares

OBC 0532 0238 0759 0379(0269) (0381) (0100) (0145)

EVMS 0550 0678(0506) (0190)

OBClong 0943 1021 1054 0741(0306) (0470) (0119) (0194)

OBCmedium 0549 0865 0617 0504(0532) (0670) (0192) (0240)

OBCshort 2655 4466 2611 2699(2136) (2374) (0466) (0558)

EVMSlong 0104 0458(0567) (0224)

EVMSmedium 1153 0397(1476) (0503)

EVMSshort 10780 0298(6184) (1137)

N 426 3676

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1468 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 27: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

size24 This suggests that OBCsrsquo incentive- and coordination-improving capabilities are both correlated with movementstoward company drivers As before the OBClong coefficientis positive and significant Unlike in the left panel theOBCmedium coefficient is as well there is some evidence thatOBC adoption is correlated with organizational change for me-dium hauls The point estimates of the OBClong coefficient aregreater than those of the OBCmedium coefficient The differenceis statistically significant using a t-test of size 005 in the thirdcolumn but not the fourth The OBCshort coefficients are nega-tive and significant which likely reflects aggregation-related bi-ases The EVMSdistance interactions are all positive withEVMSlong being statistically significant Except for the mediumhaul interactions the magnitudes of the point estimates aresimilar to those in the left panel For example the estimates inthe first and third column indicate that increasing the OBCadoption rate from 0 to 02 is associated with a 13 percent declinein the overall owner-operator share and a 17 percent declinewithin the long haul segment

In sum both panels provide strong evidence in favor of P3our main proposition cohorts where adoption was high alsomoved the most away from driver ownership of trucks They alsoprovide some evidence in favor of P4 as the relationship betweenadoption and organizational change is stronger for long-haul thanmedium-haul trucks The evidence regarding P4 is not quite sostrong however as the difference between the OBClong andOBCmedium coefficients is not statistically significant in all ofthe specifications

Table VI reports estimates from analogous specifications thatcontain interactions between OBC adoption and a dummy vari-able that equals one if the cohort is a ldquono backhaulrdquo cohort onewith dump grain body livestock or logging trailers We estimatethese using only the medium and long haul cohorts both becausewe suspect the short haul estimates are negatively biased andbecause firms generally do not try to fill backhauls when trucksoperate close to home From the second column in the left panelthe OBC coefficient is positive and significant while the OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo interaction is negative and significant In the fourth

24 The standard errors reported here do not account for the fact that ourdependent and independent variables are estimates and thus likely overstate theprecision of our point estimates Discussions of statistical significance should betaken in this light

1469CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 28: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

column we allow the effect of adoption to differ for EVMS Thepoint estimate of the OBCldquono backhaulrdquo coefficient is almost thesame as in the second column It is not statistically significantlydifferent from zero using a two-sided t-test of size 005 but iswhen using one of size 010 The right panel repeats the exerciseusing the Bayesian estimates of the adoption and ownershipshares The evidence is similar Driver ownership declines morewith OBC adoption when trucks use trailers for which demandstend to be bidirectional rather than unidirectional This resultsuggests that the organizational impact of this change in thecontracting environment differs across hauls and is greater forhauls when driver ownership would invite backhaul-related bar-gaining problems Combined with the cross-sectional differencesin driver ownership it provides additional evidence that bargain-ing problems associated with the backhaul affect whether driversown trucks

TABLE VITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

Medium and long haul cohorts only

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimates of ownershipand adoption shares

OBC 0576 0683 0333 0424 0930 0971 0604 0664(0284) (0284) (0404) (0404) (0104) (0105) (0154) (0156)

EVMS 0434 0461 0557 0521(0513) (0514) (0195) (0196)

OBCldquonobackhaulrdquo 6993 6073 2128 1952

(2491) (3177) (0579) (1043)EVMSldquono

backhaulrdquo 1764 0121(3808) (1282)

N 388 2627

Bayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

No backhaul includes dump grain livestock and logging trailers Specifications with ldquono backhaulrdquointeractions include this variable as a control

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1470 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 29: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

IVB Instrumental Variables Estimates

As discussed above interpreting the first-difference esti-mates as causal relationships requires the assumption that OBCadoption is independent of unobserved changes in organizationalform In order to provide some evidence with respect to thisinterpretation we rerun our analysis using instrumental vari-ables Following the logic described at the beginning of this sec-tion we use a vector of nineteen product class dummies as in-struments for OBC adoption25 Running a first-stage regressionof the OBC adoption share on our controls and this vector one canstrongly reject the null hypothesis that the coefficients on theproduct class dummies are jointly zero using a likelihood ratiotest of size 00526 As expected given the results in Hubbard[2000] OBC adoption varies significantly across product classes

Table VII reports our instrumental variables estimates Ingeneral the patterns in the point estimates are similar to those inthe simple first-difference specifications In the first column ofeach panel the OBC coefficient is positive and significant and thecoefficients are almost the same These coefficients are greaterthan their counterparts in Table V which indicates that thesimple first-difference estimates might understate relationshipsbetween OBC adoption and ownership changes Assuming thatunobserved changes in the incentive problem with drivers areindependent across products the Table VII point estimates indi-cate that increasing adoption rates from 0 to 02 decreases theshare of owner-operators by 23 percentage points This suggeststhat absent OBC diffusion the owner-operator share would havefallen by only about 15 percent between 1987 and 1992 ratherthan decreasing by 30 percent The results thus imply that substan-tial share of the decline in driver ownership during this time isrelated to OBC-related changes in the contractibility of good driving

The second column in each panel contains the distance in-teractions As in Table V the OBClong coefficient is positive andsignificant in both panels this provides evidence that OBC adop-

25 We report above that there are 33 product classes in our truck-level databut some of these are uncommon or are not found in the cohort sample we usehere The instrument vector here includes dummy variables for the eighteen mostcommon product classes (eg ldquofoodrdquo ldquolumber or wood productsrdquo ldquopetroleumproductsrdquo) plus a dummy that indicates ldquoother product classrdquo

26 The LR statistic for this test equals 160 when using the 426 nonzerocohorts and is 312 when using all 3676 cohorts In both cases the statistic farexceeds the critical value for a chi-squared distribution with 19 degrees of free-dom which is approximately 30 for a size 005 test

1471CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 30: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

tion led to organizational changes for long hauls TheOBCmedium coefficient is negative and insignificant in the leftpanel and positive and significant in the right panel It issignificantly smaller than the OBClong coefficient in the leftpanel but not in the right one Like the simple first-differenceestimates the instrumental variables estimates provide someevidence that relationships between OBC adoption and owner-ship changes are greater for longer hauls but the evidenceregarding P4 is not as strong as that regarding P3

In general the estimates in Table VII are consistent with thesimple first-difference estimates The point estimates are quitesimilar to those in the other tables The strength of the evidencefrom the instrumental variables estimates varies with the stan-dard errors It is greatest for our main proposition P3 whichconcerns the general relationship between adoption and owner-ship and provides some additional evidence that this relationship

TABLE VIITRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATES

Dependent variable ln(1992 company driver share1992 owner-operatorshare) ln(1987 company driver share1987 owner-operator share)

Observations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Observed ownership andadoption shares

Bayesian estimatesof ownership andadoption shares

OBC 0973 1093 0990 1187(0426) (0601) (0376) (0493)

OBClong 1959 1104(0440) (0585)

OBCmedium 0358 1192(0595) (0530)

OBCshort 6019 0855(2158) (1280)

OBCldquono backhaulrdquo 7615 2805(5574) (1879)

Sample All All Mediumlong

All All Mediumlong

N 426 426 388 3676 3676 2627

Nineteen product class dummies used as instruments for OBC adoptionBayesian estimates use initial priors with distance-specific means for ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1472 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 31: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

is causal It is weaker for P4 which concerns differences in OBCsrsquoeffect on ownership We suspect that this partly reflects that weare running up against limits of the power of our data when wetry to estimate interaction effects in first-difference specificationsusing instrumental variables

V ADOPTION AND DRIVING PATTERNS

In this section we present some evidence on whether OBCuse affects how company drivers drive Although our data do notcontain any direct information on driversrsquo driving patterns theTIUS does ask truck owners to report individual trucksrsquo averagefuel economy Because individual trucksrsquo fuel economy reflectsmany factors other than how drivers operate themmdashfor examplehow they are maintained and the terrain over which they aredrivenmdashfuel economy data are not useful for evaluating individ-ual driversrsquo performance But if OBC use causes company driversto drive better on average systematic differences in driving pat-terns might show up in fuel economy data from thousands of trucks

We investigate this by presenting results from some OLSregressions using the truck-level data from 1992 The dependentvariable is the truckrsquos reported fuel economy in miles per gallonThe main independent variables are interactions between dum-mies that indicate whether drivers own their trucks (one if driverownership zero otherwise) and whether the different classes ofOBCs are installed (one if installed zero otherwise) Coefficientson these variables indicate whether trucks with OBCs are morefuel-efficient than those without them Relationships betweenOBC use and fuel economy may reflect things other than con-tracting improvements with drivers As noted earlier OBCs sup-ply information that can help mechanics maintain trucks betterTo distinguish between the effects of maintenance and incentiveimprovements we compare the relationship between OBC useand fuel economy for company drivers and owner-operators As-suming that the maintenance value of OBCs is the same forcompany drivers and owner-operators finding that this relation-ship is stronger for company drivers than owner-operators isevidence of their incentive-improving effect because it suggeststhat the average fuel economy benefits among company driveradopters are greater than that among owner-operators

Relationships between OBC use and fuel efficiency may alsoreflect adoption patterns In general selection issues work

1473CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 32: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

against finding relationships between OBC use and fuel economyif OBCs tend to be adopted where agency costs are otherwisehigh nonadopting company drivers probably drive better thanthe adopting ones would absent monitoring The difference in therelationship between OBC use and fuel economy between com-pany drivers and owner-operators would then understate OBCsrsquoaverage incentive effect among company driver adopters Findingthat the fuel economy difference between trucks with and withoutOBCs is greater when comparing company drivers than owner-operators is thus evidence that OBCs induced fuel economyimprovements

Selection also might affect patterns across different types ofOBCs If EVMS are adopted more relative to trip recorders whenmonitoringrsquos benefits are primarily coordination-related onewould expect the average fuel economy effect among EVMSadopters to be lower than among trip recorder adopters even ifthey can be used to improve driversrsquo incentives in the same wayWe therefore allow the relationship between OBC use and fueleconomy to differ for trip recorders and EVMS

We include many additional variables as controls One setcontains an extensive set of truck characteristics that affect fueleconomy dummy variables that indicate the truckrsquos make modelyear engine size the number of driving axles and whether it hasaerodynamic features as well as the log of the truckrsquos odometerreading which captures the effects of depreciation27 They alsoinclude variables that capture how the truck is used how far fromhome it operates whether it hauls single double or triple trail-ers the average weight of the truck plus cargo and whether it isattached to a refrigerated or specialized trailer Finally theyinclude a set of dummy variables that indicate who maintains thetruck the driver a garage a trucking company an equipmentleasing firm etc

Table VIII reports results from four regressions The owner-operator coefficient is negative and significant for short haulsand statistically zero for medium and long hauls There is noevidence that company drivers without OBCs drive less effi-ciently than owner-operators for medium and long hauls andsome evidence that fuel economy is higher for company drivers for

27 We do not include these variables in our analysis of ownership because weassume that unlike on-board computers these variablesrsquo effect on the cost of ahaul is the same regardless of whether a company driver or owner-operator isused

1474 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 33: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

short hauls The trip recorder and EVMS interactions indicatethat medium- and long-haul trucks with OBCs get better fueleconomy than those without them Among long-haul trucks thepoint estimate on the trip recorder coefficient for company driversis more than twice as high as that for owner-operators Thedifference is statistically significant when using a t-test of size010 (The owner-operator estimate is noisy because so few owner-operators drive trucks with trip recorders) The point estimatesindicate that on the average across long-haul trucks for whichthey were adopted trip recordersrsquo incentive effect improved fueleconomy by at least 016 miles per gallon assuming that selectionbiases the parameter estimates downward28 Our estimates im-ply that this is about equal to aerodynamic hoodsrsquo effect on fueleconomy The EVMS coefficients tend to be lower than the triprecorder coefficients as expected There is no significant differ-ence in the coefficients on the EVMS interactions

In sum these results on fuel economy are consistent with P5The difference between the long-haul trip recorder coefficients in

28 For a truck that travels 100000 milesyear a 016 improvement in MPGtranslates to a $620 savings per year assuming that fuel costs $1gallon

TABLE VIII1992 FUEL ECONOMY VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND DISTANCE

Dependent variable miles per gallon

Alldistances

50miles

50ndash200miles

200miles

Owner-operator 0042 0159 0008 0015(0017) (0064) (0033) (0019)

Trip recorderowner-operator 0063 0514 0149 0127(0096) (0330) (0265) (0091)

Trip recordercompany driver 0186 0011 0108 0289(0019) (0067) (0033) (0021)

EVMSowner-operator 0184 0299 0346 0146(0064) (0343) (0165) (0059)

EVMScompany driver 0115 0060 0165 0126(0019) (0084) (0042) (0019)

R2 0210 0154 0241 0252N 35203 8002 11647 15552

This table reports coefficients from linear regressions of a truckrsquos miles per gallon on ownership and OBCadoption variables These regressions also include controls for distance from home who maintains truckrefrigeratedspecialized trailer driving axles vehicle make and model year equipment dummies (such as foraerodynamic features) average weight lifetime miles and engine size

Observations are weighted using Census sampling weightsBoldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1475CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 34: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

the fourth column of Table VIII provides some evidence of OBCsrsquoincentive-improving effects the difference in fuel economy be-tween trucks with and without trip recorders is greater whencomparing company drivers than owner-operators This evidencedoes not appear when comparing the EVMS coefficients possiblyreflecting that they are adopted in many circumstances for theircoordination- rather than their incentive-improving capabilities

VI CONCLUSION

This paper investigates factors affecting asset ownership intrucking in particular how the contracting environment affectswhether drivers own the trucks they drive Our evidence suggeststhat improved contracting (through the use of on-board comput-ers) leads to more integrated asset ownership Owner-operatorsare used for hauls where noncontractible decisions that affecttrucksrsquo value are important but are used less once these decisionsbecome more contractible The share of trucks that were owner-operated declined by about 30 percent between 1987 and 1992our evidence suggests that the OBC-related contractual improve-ments accounted for somewhere between one-fourth and one-halfof this decrease29 We also provide evidence on truck operatingperformance (in the form of miles per gallon outcomes) that isconsistent with the ownership results Differences in average fueleconomy between long-haul trucks with trip recorders and with-out OBCs are greater among company-owned than driver-ownedtrucks reflecting the improved incentives that the company driv-ers have after the adoption of OBCs

The analysis in this paper may explain relationships betweencontractibility and firmsrsquo boundaries in other contexts especiallythose in which the care of valuable assets is important Presum-ably the prevalence of independent contractors in the construc-tion trades is importantly influenced by the requirement to pro-vide incentives for proper operation and maintenance of equip-ment The results in this paper suggest that changes inmonitoring technology could change the industry structure in this

29 Preliminary analysis using data from 1997 indicates a similar relation-ship between OBC adoption and ownership changes during 1992ndash1997 Howeverbecause the strongest relationships between OBC adoption and ownershipchanges are associated with trip recorder adoption and trip recorder adoption wasrelatively unimportant during this period the overall impact of OBCs on driverownership was smaller than during 1987ndash1992

1476 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 35: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

sector Such changes could similarly affect the professions Theprevalence of ldquoowner-operatorsrdquo in law and medicine may bedriven to a large degree by the need to vest in professionals thevalue of their reputational assets It appears that changes in theability of insurance companies and HMOs to monitor the actionsof physicians is causing higher rates of integration in medicineleading doctors to become employees rather than independentcontractors

Innovations in information technology have led economiststechnologists and business people to theorize about how newinformational capabilities will affect the boundaries of the firmWe test a theory concerning one of its capabilities expanding theset of contractible variables Our evidence suggests that thiscapability leads to less subcontracting But changing informationtechnology offers many other new capabilities some of whichimprove resource allocation (ldquocoordinationrdquo) along with incen-tives In other research [Baker and Hubbard 2003] we examinethe organizational impact of some of these other capabilities inparticular how OBCsrsquo coordination-enhancing capabilities affectshippersrsquo make-or-buy decision Combined with this paper thisother work furthers our understanding of how information affectsthe organization of firms and markets

APPENDIX 1

Our Bayesian estimates of the shares take the form

(11) srtb

a nrt

b Nrt

bb Nrt

s Nrt

b Nrtsrt

where Nrt is the number of observations in cohort r at time t nrtis the number of positive observations and srt is the share ofpositive observations This expression is equal to the expectationof a random variable distributed B(a n b a N n)where B denotes the Beta distribution A result from conjugatedistribution theory is that B(a n b a N n) is theposterior distribution obtained by starting with initial priors B(ab a) regarding the unknown mean of a binomial distributionand Bayesian updating using N independent draws from thedistribution n of which are ones [Degroot 1970] a and b areparameters that reflect the mean and variance of the distributionof initial priors ab s is the mean

1477CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 36: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

Intuitively our Bayesian estimates are weighted averages ofs and srt where the weight on the latter increases with the sizeof the cohort We set s to equal the mean ownership (or adoption)share for hauls in the same distance class in that year Forexample s for our Bayesian estimates of the owner-operatorshare for each long haul cohort is 0211 in 1987 and 0139 in 1992(See Table I) We set b 10 this implies that the observedshares and initial priors receive equal weight when cohorts con-tain ten observations We have also estimated our models varyingb from 2 to 20 and have found no substantial differences in anyof our results

HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL AND NBERUNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND NBER

APPENDIX 2 TRUCK OWNERSHIP AND OBC ADOPTIONmdashFIRST DIFFERENCES

LINEAR PROBABILITY SPECIFICATIONS

Dependent variable 1992 company driver share 1987 company driver shareObservations are product-trailer-state-distance cohorts

Cohorts with positive owner-operator and company driver

shares in both years All cohorts

OBC 0043 0048 0025 0019(0043) (0061) (0017) (0025)

EVMS 0010 0011(0081) (0034)

OBClong 0084 0151 0010 0010(0049) (0076) (0024) (0038)

OBCmedium 0067 0115 0071 0041(0086) (0108) (0031) (0039)

OBCshort 0275 0457 0028 0015(0345) (0384) (0050) (0059)

EVMSlong 0103 0001(0092) (0046)

EVMSmedium 0171 0081(0239) (0066)

EVMSshort 1085 0046(1001) (0112)

N 426 3676

Both sets of estimates use observed ownership and adoption sharesCohort observations are weighted The weight of cohort r equals [n(r 1987)k(r 1987) n(r

1992)k(r 1992)] 2 where n(r t) is the number of observations in cohort r in time t and k(r t) is theaverage Census sampling weight among trucks in cohort r in time t

All specifications include dummy variables that indicate whether the truck was operated 50 miles50ndash200 miles or 200 miles from its base and ln(1992 trailer density) ln(1987 trailer density) as controls

Boldface indicates rejection of the null 0 using a two-sided t-test of size 005

1478 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP

Page 37: CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP: ON-BOARD …conlinmi/teaching/EC860/moral... · These theories all share the view that optimal asset ownership ... we propose a model in which

REFERENCES

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoContractibility and Asset Owner-ship On-Board Computers and Governance in U S Truckingrdquo NBER Work-ing Paper No 7634 April 2000

Baker George P and Thomas N Hubbard ldquoMake Versus Buy in Trucking AssetOwnership Job Design and Informationrdquo American Economic Review XCIII(2003) 551ndash572

Brickley James A and Fredrick H Dark ldquoThe Choice of Organizational FormThe Case of Franchisingrdquo Journal of Financial Economics XVIII (1987)401ndash420

Brynjolffson Erik and Lorin Hitt ldquoInformation Technology and OrganizationalDesign Some Evidence from Micro Datardquo Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology October 1997

Bureau of the Census 1987 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1989)

Bureau of the Census 1992 Census of Transportation Truck Inventory and UseSurvey (Washington DC Government Printing Office 1995)

Chakraborty Atreya and Mark Kazarosian ldquoProduct Differentiation and the Useof Information Technology New Evidence from the Trucking Industryrdquo Bran-deis University 1999

Chamberlain Gary ldquoAnalysis of Covariance with Qualitative Datardquo Review ofEconomic Studies XLVIII (1980) 225ndash238

Coase Ronald H ldquoThe Nature of the Firmrdquo Economica IV (1937) 386ndash405Deaton Angus ldquoPanel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sectionsrdquo Journal of

Econometrics XXX (1985) 109ndash126Degroot Morris H Optimal Statistical Decisions (New York McGraw-Hill 1970)Grossman Sanford and Oliver Hart ldquoThe Costs and Benefits of Ownership A

Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integrationrdquo Journal of Political EconomyXCVI (1986) 691ndash719

Hart Oliver and John Moore ldquoProperty Rights and the Nature of the FirmrdquoJournal of Political Economy XCVIII (1990) 1119ndash1158

Holmstrom Bengt and Paul Milgrom ldquoThe Firm as an Incentive Systemrdquo Ameri-can Economic Review LXXXIV (1994) 972ndash991

Hubbard Thomas N ldquoThe Demand for Monitoring Technologies The Case ofTruckingrdquo Quarterly Journal of Economics CXV (2000) 533ndash576

mdashmdash ldquoContractual Form and Market Thickness in Truckingrdquo Rand Journal ofEconomics XXXII (2001) 369ndash386

Klein Benjamin Robert G Crawford and Armen A Alchian ldquoVertical Integra-tion Appropriable Rents and the Competitive Contracting Processrdquo Journalof Law and Economics XXI (1978) 297ndash326

Lafontaine Francine ldquoAgency Theory and Franchising Some Empirical ResultsrdquoRand Journal of Economics XXIII (1992) 263ndash283

Lafontaine Francine and Scott Masten ldquoContracting in the Absence of SpecificInvestments and Moral Hazard Understanding Carrier-Driver Relations inU S Truckingrdquo University of Michigan Business School 2002

Maddala G S ldquoLimited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Datardquo Journalof Human Resources XXII (1987) 305ndash338

Maister David H Management of Owner-Operator Fleets (Lexington MA Lex-ington 1980)

Nickerson Jackson and Brian S Silverman ldquoWhy Arenrsquot All Truck DriversOwner-Operators Asset Ownership and the Employment Relationship inInterstate For-Hire Truckingrdquo Journal of Economics and Management Strat-egy XII (2003) 91ndash118

Shepard Andrea ldquoContractual Form Retail Price and Asset Characteristics inGasoline Retailingrdquo Rand Journal of Economics XXIV (1993) 58ndash77

Williamson Oliver E Markets and Hierarchies Analysis and Antitrust Implica-tions (New York Free Press 1975)

mdashmdash The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York Free Press 1985)

1479CONTRACTIBILITY AND ASSET OWNERSHIP