Contingent Worker Surveys and related projects COPAFS ... · Michael W. Horrigan Associate...

1 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

COPAFS

Michael W. HorriganAssociate Commissioner

June 17, 2016

Contingent Worker Surveysand related projects


Outline

What is the ‘Gig’ economy and how big is it?

BLS Contingent Worker Surveys

Survey of Employer Provided Training

Data Gaps


What is the ‘Gig’ economy?

Gig – work arranged through or using on-line intermediaries

UBER, Mechanical Turk, Taskrabbit

0.5% or workers (Katz and Kreuger, 2016)

GAO report – focus on alternative work arrangements

Core contingent: Agency temps, Direct hire temps, On-call workers and day laborers, and Contract Company workers PLUS

Independent contractors, Self employed workers, Part-time workers

2005 BLS – 30.6%, 2006 GSS – 35.3%, 2010 GSS – 40.4%




1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2017

Contingent work

Alternative work

Temporary help agency workers

On call workers

Independent contractors

Contract company workers


Defining and estimating the contingent workforce

Contingent workers are those who do not have an explicit or implicit contract for long-term employment.

Several pieces of information are collected to determine the existence of a contingent employment arrangement:

Whether the job is temporary or not expected to continue

How long the worker expects to be able to hold the job

The main reason people expect to be in their jobs a short time

How long the worker has held the job

Persons who do not expect to continue in their current jobs for personal reasons, such as retirement or returning to school, are not considered contingent workers, provided that they have the option of continuing in the job were it not for these personal reasons.


Table 1. Defining and estimating the contingent workforce, February 2005

Alternative estimates of contingent workers TotalPercent of total

employed

Estimate 1: Wage and salary workers who expect their jobs will

last for an additional year or less and who had worked at their

jobs for 1 year or less.

2.5 million 1.8

Estimate 2: Workers, including the self-employed and

independent contractors, who expect their employment to last for

an additional year or less and who had worked at their jobs (or

been self-employed) for 1 year or less.

3.2 million 2.3

Estimate 3: Workers who do not expect their jobs to last.

(Unless otherwise noted, the following charts all focus on this

estimate.)

5.7 million 4.1

Source: February 2005 Contingent Work Supplement, Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics


2.2

2.8

4.9

1.9

2.4

4.4

1.9

2.3

4.3

1.7

2.2

4.0

1.8

2.3

4.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Estimate 1 Estimate 2 Estimate 3

1995 1997 1999 2001 2005

Chart 1. Contingent workers as a percent of the total employed, February 1995-2005

Percent

Source: February 1995-2005 Contingent Work Supplements, Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics


Chart 2. In 2005, contingent workers were younger


2713

7387

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Contingent workers Noncontingent workers

25 years and over

16 to 24 years


15.5

24.5 23.3

36.6

8.6

29.7 28.5

33.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Less than a high

school diploma

High school

graduates, no college

Some college, no

degree

Bachelor's degree or

higher

Contingent workers Noncontingent workersPercent

Chart 3. In 2005, contingent workers were more likely to be either less educated or highly educated



Chart 4. In 2005, contingent workers more likely to be part time


60

83

40

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Part time

Full time


It depends

5.7%

Prefer contingent

employment

35.5%

Prefer

noncontingent

employment

55.3%

Chart 5. In 2005, only 36% of contingent workers preferred a contingent work arrangements

Not available

3.5%



Percent

Chart 6. In 2005, contingent workers were less likely to have health coverage or pension plans


59.1

18.1 18.612.4

79.4

52.1 49.644.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Health insurance

coverage from any

source

Employer-provided

health insurance

coverage

Eligible for employer-

provided pension plan

Included in employer-




Alternative work arrangements


6.7

1.7

1.00.5

6.7

1.61.0

0.6

6.3

1.50.9

0.6

6.4

1.6

0.90.5

7.4

1.8

0.90.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Independent

contractors

On-call workers Temporary help

agency workers

Workers provided by

contract firms

1995 1997 1999 2001 2005

Chart 7. Workers with alternative arrangements as a percent of the total employed, February 1995-2005

Source: February 1995-2005 Contingent Work Supplements, Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Percent


Estimates of alternative work arrangements

BLS – 10.8% of workers were in any of the four alternative work arrangements in 2005.

Katz and Krueger estimate the percentage of workers in alternative work arrangements in a way that is similar but not exactly identical to BLS:

Temporary help agency, on-call, contract company workers, independent contractors or freelancers

10.1% in 2005

15.8 % in 2015


95.7

80.1 80.788.4 86.1

4.3

19.9 19.311.6 13.9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Independent

contractors

On-call workers Temporary help

agency workers

Workers provided by

contract firms

Workers with

traditional

arrangements

Chart 8. In 2005, on-call and temporary help agency workers were more likely to be younger

16 to 24 years

25 years and over



Percent

9.1

44.6

56.2

82.3

46.1

32.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Independent contractors On-call workers Temporary help agency

workers

Prefer traditional arrangement Prefer alternative arrangement

Chart 9. In 2005, independent contractors preferred their arrangement while temporary help agency workers preferred a traditional arrangement

Source: February 2005 Contingent Work Supplement, Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor StatisticsNote: Workers provided by contract firms were not asked about their preference for a traditional arrangement.


Percent

39.7

8.3 8.93.8

80.2

48.942.6

33.5

80.0

56.0 52.947.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Health insurance coverage

from any source

Employer-provided health

insurance coverage

Eligible for employer-


Included in employer-


Temporary help agency workers Workers provided by contract firms

Workers with traditional arrangements

Chart 10. In 2005, temporary help agency workers were far less likely to have health insurance or have pension coverage



Chart 11. Median usual weekly earnings of full-time workers with alternative work arrangements, February 2005


*Total estimate is for 1st quarter 2005 full-time wage and salary workers.

$716

$519

$414

$756

$651

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Independent

contractors

On-call workersTemporary help

agency workers

Workers

provided by

contract firms

*Total full-time

workers


May 2017 Contingent Worker Supplement


May 2017 CWS - Timeline

2 distinct types of changes to the survey are

being considered

Minor changes to the 2005 survey question

wording

Adding a limited number of new questions (4)

to the end of the survey


May 2017 CWS- new questions

Do individuals obtain customers or in-person tasks through companies that electronic match them, often through apps

Main job, Second job (if identified previously as a multiple job holder), Additional work for pay

Do workers complete short, online only tasks posted on electronic lists for pay


May 2017 Contingent Worker Survey - timeline

Change to wording of existing instrument - completed

Cognitive testing of new questions – Jun/Jul 2016

Federal Register Notice – Sep/Nov 2016

Reprogramming the instrument - ongoing


Surveys of Employer Provided Training



SEPT 1993

Incidence

SEPT 1995

Incidence and Intensity

Hours, number of staff training

Limited measures of employer costs

Formal and informal training

– Wage and salary opportunity costs



Interest by foundations

DOL funding for cognitive research

Record keeping practices of firms

Extensive consultation with stakeholders

Questionnaire design

Selection of data collection methodology


Data Gaps

Establishment based surveys

How businesses produce their product or provide their service

Wage and salary and self employed

– Traditional workers

– Alternative work arrangements

– Contingent workers

– Gig workers

Other margins of adjustment

– Overtime, formal training


Contact Information

Mike HorriganAssociate Commissioner

Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics

www.bls.gov202-691-5735

[email protected]

Contingent Worker Surveys and related projects COPAFS ... · Michael W. Horrigan Associate...

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