Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty

THE FUTURE IS EMBEDED IN THE PRESENTJohn Naisbitt, Futurist

Thursday, May 31, 12

DISCONTINUITYA pattern of trends that has the potential todramatically change competitive rules

or industry structures, opening upsubstantial new opportunities.


CONNECT THE DOT´S

People are working longer hoursThe number of single parent families increasingPeople are getting married later in lifePeople are spending more time online

WHERE IS THE INTERSECTION BETWEEN THESE TRENDS?

WHAT IS THE BIGGER STORY THAT EMERGES WHEN YOU PUT THESE TRENDS TOGETHER?


INCREASING SOCIAL ISOLATION


HOW COULD/WILL THIS AFFECT YOUR INDUSTRY?


TODAYIMAGINING THE FUTURE

...IS NOT EASY


THINK BIGThursday, May 31, 12

LET´s THINK ABOUT THE TRENDS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY


Bill Ford · Global GridlockThursday, May 31, 12

Forget about grand corporate visions of the future.


Focus on identifying changes in the external environmentthat competitors have under-estimated orignored.


Then try to understand how the momentum of these changes can be influenced or amplified to shape the future.


EVERYONE HAS ACCESS TO THE SAME INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT IS CHANGING THE WORLD.


HOW CAN YOU CONSTRUCT PROPIETARY INSIGHTS OUT OF

PUBLICLY AVAILABLE DATA?


LOOK WHERE YOUR COMPETITORS ARE NOT?


LOOK WHERE YOUR COMPETITORS ARE NOT?

What is the bleeding edge?

Where could we go to get some firsthand experience of ...

technological change, lifestyle changes,

socio-demographic changes, etc.?

Where could we go to get inspiring bursts of insight that trigger innovative new ideas?


Jan Chipchase · Understanding ConsumersThursday, May 31, 12

AMPLIFY WEAK SIGNALS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR SECOND AND THIRD ORDER CONSEQUENCES.


Chris Anderson · Technology ForecastingThursday, May 31, 12

TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.



EXAMINE THE PASTWhat have been our past blind spots?

Is there an instructive analogy from another industry?Who in your industry has a good track record in

picking up week signals?


EXAMINE THE PRESENTWhat important signals are you rationalizing away?

(detect · fast forward with scenario planning)What are your mavericks and outliers trying to tell you?What are peripheral customers and competitors really

thinking? (existing · potential · non-consumers)aasdf



ENVISION THE FUTUREWhat future surprises could really hurt (or help) us?What emerging technologies could change the game?

Is there an unthinkable scenario?



LOOK FOR INTERSECTIONS BETWEEN TRENDS.


Flying CarsThursday, May 31, 12

RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY


Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty

Technology

Transcript of Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty