Consumptive Needs Technical Workgroup

Kickoff and Workshop

November 14, 2017, 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.

Missouri Water Resources Plan

Welcome!

Jennifer Hoggatt

Director

Water Resources Center

Sherri Stoner

Chief of Planning

Water Resources Center

Agenda Overview F

irst

Ho

ur

Introduction and Meeting Format

Missouri Department of Natural Resources Project Vision and Schedule

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Importance and Participation

Organization Chart

Scope and Core Elements of the Water Plan

Critical Success Factors

Sec

on

d H

ou

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Water Resources Center Liaison Introductions

Participant Introductions

Communications

Missouri Department of Natural Resources Water Plan website

Break

Th

ird

Ho

ur

Technical Workgroup Roles

Technical Workgroup Meetings

Consumptive Needs Methodology Overview

Next Steps

Public Comments

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Missouri Water Resources Plan Vision

Statutory Responsibility (640.415 RSMo):

“The department shall develop, maintain and periodically update a state water plan for a long-range, comprehensive statewide program for the use of surface water and groundwater resources of the state, including existing and future need for drinking water supplies, agriculture, industry, recreation, environmental protection and related needs.”

Project Vision (MoDNR)

• Provide an understanding of water resource needs

• Ensure the quantity of water resources meet future water demands

• Identify future water supply shortfalls

• Explore options to address water needs

The Missouri Water

Resources Plan is a long range, comprehensive

strategy to:

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Missouri Water Resources Plan Update: Goals

Gather public and stakeholder input to help identify needs and priority areas of water resource development.

Establish key stakeholder advisory and technical groups to help guide water plan development.

Develop an updated evaluation of current groundwater and surface water availability and develop projected water supply needs.

Produce an in-depth analysis of current and future consumptive, non-consumptive and agricultural water needs, and identify gaps in water availability based on water demand projections.

Identify water and wastewater infrastructure needs, and evaluate funding and financing opportunities.

Recognize water quality and assess how this affects water supply uses.

Understand areas where developing new and more sustainable water sources, better infrastructure, and more integrated water supplies can help to sustain water delivery.

To better understand regionally where future water gaps may exist, as studies have revealed in parts of southwest and northern Missouri.

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Missouri Water Resources Plan – Schedule

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USACE Partnership – Planning Assistance to States

Authority and Scope

• Section 22 of the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) of 1974, as amended, provides authority for the Corps of Engineers to assist the states, local governments, Native American Tribes and other non-federal entities, in the preparation of comprehensive plans for the development and conservation of water and related land resources.

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USACE Partnership (continued)

Planning Assistance to States Principles

• Typical studies are undertaken only at the planning level of detail

• They do not include detailed design for project construction

• Broad coverage – “water and related resource” planning

• Cost shared 50/50 with state, Tribal or local government

• In-kind services can be used to meet 100 percent of non-federal contribution

• Program annual ceiling is $30 million nationally, and $5 million per state

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PAS – Types of Studies

Water Supply and Demand

Water Quality Studies

Environmental Conservation/Restoration

Wetlands Evaluation

Dam Safety/Failure

Flood Risk Management

Flood Plain Management

Eau Galle River nutrient study for water quality 10

Missouri Water Resources Plan Organization Chart

Consumptive Infrastructure Non-

Consumptive Agricultural Water Quality

Contractors: CDM Smith

University of Missouri

Advisory Group: Interagency Task Force

Technical Work Group Needs

Stakeholders / Public Outreach

Project Managers: Sherri Stoner, MoDNR Kaely Megaro, USACE

Jaysson Funkhouser, USACE

USACE MoDNR

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Organization Roles and Responsibilities

USACE MoDNR CDM Smith

University of Missouri

Technical Workgroup Liaisons/Spokesperson

Technical Workgroup Members

Stakeholders

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Water Resources Plan – Core Elements

Demands

Supply

Infrastructure

Water Quality

Public and Stakeholder Involvement

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Water Resources Plan – Elements Schedule

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Water Resources Plan – Elements Schedule

Evaluate Demographics, Economics and Trends

• Evaluate current and projected population and other key demographic factors

• Evaluate the role of water in major economic sectors

• Analyze the social setting surrounding water management

Quantify Consumptive and Characterizing Non-Consumptive Demand

• Analyze demand studies and population estimates

• Estimate water resources sustainability and reliability

• Evaluate raw water providers production, wastewater treatment outfalls, reuse, conservation and efficiency, wholesale water contracts and direct flow storage

• Evaluate non-consumptive demands such as thermoelectric, navigation and water-based outdoor recreation

Estimate Agricultural Demands

• Identify/evaluate irrigated acreage, crop type, and livestock

• Utilize methods for estimating consumptive use, gross diversions, return flows, losses and non-beneficial consumptive use

Evaluate Water Quality

• Analyze water quality and the impact on consumptive water supply

• Evaluate water quality for wastewater improvements

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Water Resources Plan – Elements Schedule

Analyze Surface and Groundwater Hydrology and Availability

• Analyze river basin hydrology and reasonable variations in hydrology

• Track and account water transfers between uses and between watersheds

• Estimate aquifer capacity, yield, sustainability and suitability for aquifer storage/recharge

Evaluate Infrastructure

• Analyze infrastructure, conservation, system efficiencies, conjunctive use, transfers and development of new supplies

• Analyze options to meet identified management objectives

• Estimate capital, Operations and Maintenance, and periodic costs

• Evaluate alternative rates and fee structures, cost-benefit analysis and non-traditional innovative funding strategies

Adaptive Management

• Identify major uncertainties related to the future of water in the State of Missouri

• Evaluate multiple planning scenarios and identify decision points

Stakeholder and Public Involvement

• Implement technical workgroups

• Facilitate stakeholder involvement meetings

• Gather public input

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Missouri Water Resources Plan Update:

Define Water Supply Objectives

Sustainably meet municipal and

industrial needs

Sustainably meet agricultural needs

Provide operational flexibility

Protect the environment

Promote cost effectiveness

Identify water quality impacts on water supply uses

Educate and engage residents, businesses and other

stakeholders in water planning to 2060

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Missouri Water Resources Plan Update: Project Quality Process

Step back from specific project details and look at the big picture

• What is the project going to accomplish?

• Why is it important?

• What do we need to ensure success?

• What might hamper our success and how do we deal with it?

Process is a team approach

• Active participation

• Develop a thorough understanding of the project

• Team commitment to project success

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Critical Success Factors

Stakeholders

Project Management

Communication

Technical

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Critical Success Factors

Stakeholder Collaboration and coordination across sectors, disciplines, groups, and project team

members to develop a holistic plan. Representation for stakeholders across technical workgroups

Leverage existing outreach efforts, optimize capacity of state water resources plan and best utilize information from each one

Documentation and information sharing is public, open and easily accessible Establish mechanism for unsolicited outside public input Evaluate engagement beyond attendance; clearly incorporating feedback into final

products Equitable representation of stakeholder groups and opportunity for feedback and

buy-in on planning and methodology processes for analysis Design stakeholder engagement for "beyond the plan" to establish actual

implementation of results Policy, programs and project recommendations generated by stakeholders, vetted

and prioritized by MoDNR, incorporated into the water plan with implementation path forward

Identify controversial and conflicting issues and establish facilitation for productive outcome of feedback

Stakeholders

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Critical Success Factors (continued)

Project Management

Communication through CDM Smith, MoDNR and USACE to disseminate throughout the groups and keep all team members informed and involved

Understanding the established timeline and managing the expectations and needs to meet that schedule

Project Management

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Critical Success Factors (continued)

Communication Communication needs to be specific or tailored to the audience in question; we

must know the audience and their issues and points of view

Participants in the technical workgroups and the Interagency Task Force, stakeholders and the public need to finish the study with the feeling that their voices have been heard and that they contributed to the plan in a meaningful or material way

We must find the right way to communicate with the appropriate web-based tools, in order to maximize our outreach and effectiveness in engagement of the widest membership of the water resources community

We need consistent messaging coming from all water resources plan team members

The water resources plan should result in raising the awareness of the value of water resources to the State now and in the future

Communication

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Critical Success Factors (continued)

Technical

Developing sound methodology and making sure this is clear to the stakeholders and readers of the report

Have thorough quality assurance and quality control reviews in place

Use best available data and determine where there is insufficient information

Quantification of costs

Sustainability

Priorities and components of high, medium and low projections (wet/dry, conservation, etc.)

Missouri Water Resources Plan will document its findings

Technical

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Water Resources Center Liaison Introductions

John Horton Michael Weller Bryan Hopkins Scott Kaden Sherri Stoner

Consumptive Infrastructure Non-

Consumptive Agricultural Water Quality

Technical Workgroups

Others from Contact List?

Introductions: • Name • Who do you work for? • Who are you representing? • What do you hope to get out of the process?

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Project Communications

Roles and expectations

Website

Basecamp IATF

meetings

Public outreach

Project Communications

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Missouri Water Resources Plan – Website

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dnr.mo.gov/mowaterplan/

Missouri Water Resources Plan – Basecamp

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Public Outreach – MoDNR Base Presentation

Delete text and add screenshot

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Public Outreach – Brochure

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Interagency Task Force (IATF) Updates

Next IATF meeting is scheduled for: Date: November 28, 2017

Location: Lewis and Clark State Office Building in Jefferson City, Mo.

Time: 9:00 a.m. to noon

Topics to be discussed: Water Resources Plan Status – CDM Smith

Technical Workgroups Update – Workgroup Spokesperson

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Identify Technical Workgroup Spokesperson

Define the process to nominate and elect a spokesperson for each Technical Workgroup

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Technical Workgroup Role – Define

Define the Technical Workgroups

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Technical Workgroup Role – Rules

Define the Technical Workgroup Rules

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Technical Workgroup Role – First Meetings

November 14-16, 2017, in Roaring River Conference Room, 1730 East Elm Street, Jefferson City

Nov. 14 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Consumptive Needs

1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Infrastructure Needs

Nov. 15 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Non-Consumptive Needs

1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Agricultural Needs

Nov. 16 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Water Quality Needs

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Technical Workgroup Role – Future Meetings February 6-8, 2018, in Roaring River Conference Room, 1730 East Elm Street, Jefferson City

Feb. 6 9 a.m.to 12 p.m. – Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Infrastructure Feb. 7 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Non-Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Agriculture Feb. 8 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Water Quality

May 15-17, 2018, in LaCharrette Conference Room, Lewis and Clark State Office Building, Jefferson City

May 15 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Infrastructure May 16 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Non-Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Agriculture May 17 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Water Quality

August 14-16, 2018, in LaCharrette Conference Room, Lewis and Clark State Office Building, Jefferson City

Aug. 14 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Infrastructure Aug. 15 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Non-Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Agriculture Aug. 16 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Water Quality

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Technical Workgroup Role – Meetings

Coordination with other Technical Workgroups

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Technical Workgroup Role – Participation

Ask that members of the Technical Workgroups provide additional suggestions and recommendations to be considered in the process

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Technical Workgroup Meetings

Present current status of the Water Resources Plan – Overall

Present the methodology for each element

Present the status of the tasks as part of each element of the Plan

Identify specific topics for Technical Workgroup input

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Consumptive Needs

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ALL WATER DEMAND SECTORS

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Consumptive Demand Quantified • Municipally-provided public

supply

• Self-supplied nonresidential

• Self-supplied domestic

• Thermoelectric power generation (small portion consumed)

• Livestock

• Agriculture irrigation

Non-Consumptive Demand Characterized Hydroelectric power generation

Commercial navigation

Aquaculture and wetlands

Water-based outdoor recreation

Thermoelectric power generation (small portion consumed)

Consumptive demand refers to water that is withdrawn from the source and consumed in a way that makes its use

all or partially unavailable for other purposes or uses.

Consumptive Demand Approach

Data Availability Review

Identify Driver and Per Unit Use

Quantify Current Water Use and Supply

Project Changes in Per Unit Use and Drivers

Forecast Water Use to 2060

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Consumptive Demand Overview of Demand Forecasting Methodology

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GOAL: identify withdrawals and consumptive use by sector, source and

county to 2060

Consumption Demand Forecast Capturing Uncertainty

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Baseline High Scenario Low Scenario

Range of future

possible demand

levels

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Consumptive Demand Sources of Supply

Source of supply identified for consumptive demands

Groundwater aquifers

Surface water “Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)” 8 for analysis, HUC 4 for reporting

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Missouri Hydrologic Units

Alluvial Aquifer

McNairy Aquifer

Ozark Confining Unit

Pennsylvanian Confining Unit

Precambrian Confining Unit

Springfield Plateau/Mississippian Aquifer

St Francois Aquifer

St Francois Confining Unit

Wilcox Aquifer

Ozark/Cambrian-Ordovician Aquifer

Municipally-Provided Public Supply

Definition – Water that is provided by a municipal or public water supply entity to homes, businesses and light industries

Data Sources

MoDNR Major Water User Database

Census of Missouri Public Water Systems

Woods & Poole 2017 Complete Economic and Demographic Data

MoDNR public wells data

Methodology Population Publicly-Supplied times Per Capita Use Rate

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Adjusted for passive conservation impacts from

plumbing codes, ordinances and standards

that improve efficiency

Municipally-Provided Public Supply Water Wholesales

Methodology does account for water purchases and sales, to the extent possible given available data

Water sellers and buyers identified from Census of Missouri Public Water Systems

~200 systems in the municipally-provided public supply sector purchase majority of water from another provider

Majority seller source of water assumed for these systems

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Municipality Seller 1

Municipality Buyer 1

Municipality Buyer 2

aquifer

Self-Supplied Domestic

Definition – Water that is used by homes, sub-divisions or mobile home parks that is supplied by a privately owned and operated well

Data Sources MoDNR Major Water User Database Census of Missouri Public Water Systems U.S. Geological Survey 2010 estimates Woods & Poole 2017 Complete Economic and Demographic Data MoDNR Public Wells Data

Methodology Population Self-Supplied times Per Capita Use Rate

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Adjusted for passive conservation impacts from

plumbing codes, ordinances and standards

that improve efficiency

Self-Supplied Domestic and Municipally-Provided Linkage

Total population in a county is the “control”

Municipally-supplied population is first calculated; smaller systems without readily known information about source of supply are not included

Self-supplied is the remainder Total County Population minus Municipally-Supplied equals Self-Supplied

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Municipally-Supplied Population

Self-Supplied Population

Self-Supplied Nonresidential

Definition – Water used by nonresidential establishments, such as industries, golf courses, nursing homes, hotels, mining and prisons that is supplied by the establishments own source

Data Sources

MoDNR Major Water User Database

Census of Missouri Public Water Systems

Woods & Poole 2017 Complete Economic and Demographic Data

MoDNR Public Wells Data

Methodology

Current Nonresidential Use times Employment Growth

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Data Sources – Water Use Information

Major Water User Database (MoDNR)

Water users pumping or diverting 100,000 (or more) gallons per day must register and report

Key data include withdrawal points, use category, primary county, population served

Census of Missouri Public Water Systems (MoDNR)

Systems serving 25 people or more

Key data include volume, source water type, population served, water sellers and buyers

U.S. Geological Survey Water Use in the United States

Every 5 years, latest is 2010

Estimated of current water use patterns

Used for supplemental information and verification

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Not all water users (especially non-municipal systems) register and report

Methodology designed in a way to mitigate these data gaps, but limitations do still exist

Self-supplied nonresidential use is underestimated because not all users are registered

Per capita use rates for municipal systems are estimated from self-reported data and are adjusted for water sales

Data gaps offer opportunity to identify areas where better data are needed in future

Range of future demands intended to mitigate data gap impact on technical analysis

Data Sources – Limitations

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Non-Consumptive Demand Thermoelectric Power Generation

Definition – Water required for the generation of electricity that is

produced from burning fossil fuels; only a small portion of the water withdrawn is consumed

Both non-consumptive and consumptive withdrawals are estimated

Methodology

Identify major facilities

Estimate existing withdrawals for each facility and source of water

Future projections by facility, accounting for population growth, regional pools and fuel type projections

Estimate consumptive portion

Seasonality description

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Non-Consumptive Demand Thermoelectric Power Generation

Data Sources U.S. Department of Energy,

Energy Information Administration (923, 860, and Annual Energy Outlook)

U.S. Geological Survey 2010

Major Water Users Database

National Renewable Energy Laboratory – A Review of Operational Water Consumption and Withdrawal Factors for Electricity Generating Technologies

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Data Sources – Demographic Projections

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Projections obtained from Woods & Poole, an independent corporation specializing in long-term county projections

Projections are cohesive and regionally based

Includes both employment and population

Projects employment by basic sectors where output is not consumed locally (i.e., mining, agriculture) and non-basic sectors (retail trade, construction) that depend largely on the growth of the basic sectors with some exceptions for Missouri (e.g., Information and Finance in Kansas City)

Other options explored, State Demographer provided input on best available source

Consumptive Demand Data Gaps

Additional data points for seasonal water use patterns

Information about planned conservation

Better reporting and tracking of wholesale water purchasing and selling

Reports and studies about planned projects that will move systems from one water source to another during the planning horizon

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Supply Availability

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Surface Water Supply

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Surface Water Supply Task Summary

Goals

• Identify and quantify existing and future surface water supply sources

• Assess water supply availability accounting for future demands and hydrologic variability scenarios

• Summarize USACE reservoir allocations

Elements

• Develop and apply tools to support surface water analysis

• Develop water budgets to determine water availability under dry, normal and wet conditions

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Surface Water Methodology Overview S

tep

1

Baseline Analysis - Assess conditions

using historical hydrology

Tool Development Incorporate: - Streamflow - Major withdrawals

and discharges - Major reservoirs

Analysis Framework - Develop basin

schematic

Data Analysis - Streamflow gap filling and

record extension

Data Collection and Review - Streamflow - Major withdrawals and

discharges - Interbasin transfers - Reservoir Operations - Climate

Ste

p 2

Assess Future Conditions - 2060 demands and

scenarios

Tool Selection

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Surface Water Supply Data Sources

Missouri State Water Plan Series, Volume I: Surface Water Resources of Missouri (WR45)

Missouri Drought Plan (WR69, 2002)

MoDNR Water Supply Study (2011)

USGS Stream Gage Data

MoDNR Major Water Users Database

MoDNR GIS Catalog

U.S. EPA DWINSA

Safe Drinking Water Intended Use Plan (IUP)

SDWIS - MoDNR Public Water Systems 2013 ASCE Report Card for Missouri's Infrastructure

MoDNR Census of Public Water Systems

University of Missouri Center for Applied Research and Environmental Systems (CARES)

Southwest Missouri Water Resource Study Phases I and II (2012, 2014)

Northwest Missouri Regional Water Supply Phases I through IV

Howard County Regional Water Commission

Caldwell County Commission, Little Otter Creek Reservoir

Clarence Cannon Wholesale Water Commission, Mark Twain Lake

North Central Missouri Regional Water Commission, East Locust Creek Reservoir

Atchison County Wholesale Water Commission

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Surface water supply analysis will focus on the nine sub-regional Hydrologic Units (HUC-4 level)

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Groundwater Supply

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Overview of Groundwater Approach

• Identify sources and limitations of groundwater in Missouri

• Project the most likely future conditions and availability of groundwater

• Integrate groundwater analysis into the broader supply analysis

Goals:

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Groundwater in Missouri

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Groundwater in Missouri (continued)

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Groundwater Data Sources

Groundwater Withdrawals for Consumptive and Non-consumptive Demands

Municipal supplies

Industrial supplies

Thermoelectric

Aquaculture and wetland habitat

Groundwater-Level Observation Well Network

Regional Groundwater Studies

USGS Numerical Groundwater Models, such as:

Ozark Plateaus Aquifer System in the vicinity of Greene County, Missouri

Ozark Plateaus aquifer system, northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma

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Groundwater-Level Observation Well Network Maintained by the Missouri

Geological Survey’s Water Resources Center

Network was started in 1956 and includes 150 wells

Network includes precipitation gages at 41 sites

Wells range in depth from 11 to 1,825 feet

The network does NOT collect water quality data

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Groundwater Supply – Current and Future

Under the demand forecasting task, develop future demand projections

These will be assessed two ways:

Quantitatively using USGS Numerical groundwater

models; updating groundwater withdrawals per demand

projections for planning period

Qualitatively using regional groundwater studies, water

level information and projected groundwater demands for

planning horizon

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Next Steps

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Public Comments

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Thank You

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