Consumers LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE … · LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE...

LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF

TIMES MODEL

Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems

29th and 30th May, 2017CO2ENERGY &

CLIMATE

New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices

Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation

Consumers Profiles &

Energy Efficiency

Policy Support

Energy Transitions

Integrative Energy City

Planning

Luís Pereira Dias1, Sofia Simões, João Pedro Gouveia, Júlia Seixas

1 [email protected]

Agenda

• Context

• InSmart project

Scope

Methods and tools

City energy planning structure

• TIMES_Évora model

Sectors

Geographic representation

Zooming in: buildings (residential)

• “Real World conditions” - Households budget constrains

Results

ConclusionsDias, L. LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017

Context

more than half of

global population80% of the world’s

GDP in 2013

two-thirds of primary

energy demand

70% of total energy-

related CO2 emissions

The History of Urbanization, 3700 BC - 2000 AD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKJYXujJ7sU

2050?

2100?

70% in 2050

CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKJYXujJ7sU

Context

Target:

By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita

environmental impact of cities,

including by paying special attention to

air quality and municipal and other waste

management

Target:

- Integrate climate change measures into

national policies, strategies and planning

Target:

- increase substantially

the share of renewable

energy in the global

energy mix

The challenge is also

address in various SDG

Cities are at the heartof the decarbonisation effort


TIMES models• TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model generator was developed as part of the IEA-ETSAP (Energy Technology

Systems Analysis Program), an international community which uses long term energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and

environmental analyses (Loulou et al., 2004).

• The TIMES model generator combines two different, but complementary, systematic approaches to modelling energy: a technical

engineering approach and an economic approach.

• TIMES is a technology rich, bottom-up model generator, which uses linear-programming to produce a least-cost energy system,

optimized according to a number of user constraints, over medium to long-term time horizons. In a nutshell, TIMES is used for, "the

exploration of possible energy futures based on contrasted scenarios" (Loulou et al., 2005).

Global

RegionalNational

Local

ETSAP-TIAM

More information at: http://www.iea-etsap.org/

JRC-EU-TIMES model

TIMES_PT

TIMES_EVORA

28 European states

Available at: http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/the-jrc-eu-times-model-

pbLDNA26292/?CatalogCategoryID=YysKABsty0YAAAEjqJEY4e5L

15 regions


Cesena (Italy) Deka Trikala (Greece) Nottingham (U.K.)Évora (Portugal)

European funded project (FP7) [2013-2016]

working in partnership towards a sustainable

energy future.

Scope

VISION: Cities sustainable energy future are achievable by:

• bringing together cities, scientific and industrial organizations, • considering the integration of the components of the city’s energy system, • selecting cost-effective options from multiple data sources and integrated

tools,• choosing the best social-accepted technologies and measures.

PURPOSE:• Design comprehensive data-driven methods for enhancing the city’s

sustainable planning addressing the current and future city energy needs, • Implement an integrative planning tool to identify the optimum mix of

short, medium and long term measures for a sustainable energy future forthe city,

• Address the efficiency of energy flows across all city sectors taking spatial patterns and economic, environmental and social criteria

• Engage city agents to pave the implementation of priority actions.

CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid

Methods and tools

City Energy Planning structure

Integrated City Energy Planning framework and major outcomes

Per typology

Évora model


TIMES_Évora: Sectors

• Transport

• Buildings

• Public services

• Energy Supply

• Industry

• Agriculture

Residential

Commercial

Municipality

Water system

Sewage system

Waste system

Public lighting

lighting

Passenger cars

Urban and intercity buses

Light duty trucks

Freight trucks

Trains

Motorcycles

CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability

Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid

Évora energy flows

CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017 LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid

Structure of TIMES_Évora

o Geographical representation

Four regions: 3 urban and 1 rural

CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017 LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid

Structure of TIMES_Évora II

o (Real) Time slices

Based on the quality of information that we had: Big data - 32 000 smart meter

information on residential and avrious sectors electricity consumption at 15 minutes and

also PV powerplants electricity production profiles;

18 timeslices

• Seasons: Summer; Winter

and interseasonal

• Week days and week ends

• Day, night and peak


Modelling approach

Refrigerators and freezers

Clothes dryers

Clothes Washing machines

Lighting

Dishwashers

Other electric

equipment

Space heating

Cooking

Space Cooling

Waterheating

10 building

typologies

4 city zones

Per

en

erg

y e

ffic

ien

cy c

lass

es a

nd

typ

e o

f

fuel

LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017

Modelling approach

10 building

typologies

4 city zones

Equipments and

energy services

Mobility

• By type of fuel• By age (Euro Norm)• By origin-destiny matrice

Based on household level of income


Socio-economic scenarios

• The visions underlying each modelledquantitative scenario until 2030 were co-developed with municipal stakeholders ina series of meetings.

• “Demand Scenarios” that were at a laterstage combined with “Policy scenarios”reflecting the goals of the municipality;

• Narratives evolved into the following two main visions for Évora: Smart and Reference


Visions for Évora

• Reference (REF) vision

• population decreases from 56 595 inhabitants in 2011 to 48 960 inhabitants in 2030 following the

expected trends from Statistics Portugal for the whole of the country;

• no changes on energy consumption profiles for the different consumers, and mobility patterns;

• new commercial mall;

• Smart Évora (Smart) vision

• Resident population stable till 2030;

• relocation of the municipality technical services

• new district hospital, new roads, and the expansion of the industrial park

LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid


Policy scenarios

Generate Sustainable Future (2030) Energy (realistic) pathways

Expand individual mobility soft-modes

Energy efficiency measures in 70% of

households (double glazing, insulation, shading

devices)

Reduce 30-50% of energy

consumption

Demo on Zero Energy

Building Public lighting with 100% of LEDs

Expand the use of electric

vehicles (5-10% of

vehicles)

Restrict cars in cities’ historical centers

50% of households equipped

with solar energy (PV and

thermal)

Smart-biomass heating

systems (60% of fireplaces)

Reduce 30% waste generation

Improve energy

efficiency in waste

water treatment plants


Using the TIMES_Évora Generate Sustainable Future (2030) Energy (realistic) pathways

• Scenario: Évora mitigate – CO2 emission target in 2030: 30%reducting

comparing with 2013 values

• Scenario: Reality check - Constrains on available family budget for technology

investments:

Based on national information on family savings rate in Portugal (8.3% in 2013 (INE, 2016)) and

the levels of income per family and building typology (based on InSmart buildings surveys)

Reference scenario for population forecast rate (-4% for every 5 years: -15% in 2030 vs 2011)


ResultsÉvora municipality CO2 emission (Gg CO2)

-11%

-30%

Final energy consumption

• High level of electricity inclusion in transport sector (Évora mitigate) vs GSL and LPG

based vehicles (Reality check)

[Justification- low distances travelled in the city, emission factor of electricity]

• Reduction consumption of diesel for SH in residential sector (Évora mitigate) vs higher

consumption of natural gas and LPG – reduction of electricity high efficiency techs;

• Reduction on the adoption of refurbishment and insulation technologies.

• Restriction of investment does limit the adoption of specific high efficient technologies: ex:

refrigerators (Reality check has only A+ refrigerators vs Évora mitigate with above A+);


ResultsÉvora municipality CO2 emission (Gg CO2)

Final energy consumption

43%

• High level of electricity inclusion in transport sector (Évora mitigate) vs GSL and

LPG based vehicles (Reality check)

[Justification- low distances travelled in the city, emission factor of

electricity]

• Reduction consumption of diesel for SH in residential sector (Évora mitigate) vs

higher consumption of natural gas and LPG – reduction of electricity high efficiency

techs;

• Reduction on the adoption of refurbishment and insulation technologies.

• Restriction of investment does limit the adoption of specific high efficient

technologies: ex: refrigerators (Reality check has only A+ refrigerators vs Évora

mitigate with above A+);

0%20%

-59%

32%

+23%

-30%

+23%+29%


Results


• Challenge on passing the ideia of “optimization scenarios” to municipalities teams.

More concern to test ideas of specific measures, contrary to the support to define policy.

• TIMES_Évora provides the possibility to define ‘realistic’ action plans to support city

Sustainable Energy Action Plans (SEAP);

• Combine integrated long term strategic planning of the whole city energy system;

• Assessment of the more cost-effective configurations of the city energy system and the

necessary measures.

• Analysis of the role of the local energy demand side, considering real life constrains to

long term sustainable energy goals.

• In terms of environment components the model doesn’t included important aspects:

external impacts on land and resources consumption: solar pv

Conclusion

This tool supports city decision makers on the cost-optimal spatial and

sectoral specific portfolio of measures to assist the transition to a city

decarbonized energy system


http://cense.fct.unl.pt

https://www.facebook.com/

https://twitter.com/CENSE_FCT_UNL

https://www.linkedin.com/groups/CENSE-6694329

Luís Dias

[email protected]

http://www.insmartenergy.com/

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