ConsumerIndex - Kantar Worldpanel · 2014-03-09 · chains like Econsave and Mydin that have been...

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Inside this issue:Overview Asia 1Trade Channels and Category Trends: - China 2- South Korea 3- Malaysia 4- Philippines 5- Taiwan 6- Thailand 7- Vietnam 8Source and Definitions 9

Dear clients and partners,

Once again I am proud to present you with the latest edition of Consumer Index Worldpanel Asia. It provides you with up-to-date data and commentary covering the major movements in key economic indicators, category performances and the trade landscape across China, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

Here are some of the developments and trends we saw in the Asian region.

• RT-mart is the biggest retailer in national China, even though people only go to RT-mart once a month on average, while they visit modern trade channels about once a week.

• In Korea, the retail environment is growing more sophisticated, with people shopping around and picking the channels of their liking based on their needs, which is evident from the increase in the average number of channels used by households.

• In Malaysia, this festive season saw a better performance than in the previous year as the economy recovers. Shoppers are still picking up more during the festive season despite price pressures coming from non-FMCG categories like meat, vegetables and petrol.

• In the Philippines, the food growth of 13% can largely be attributed to price increases, in particular for basic commodities such as cooking oil (23%), salt (14%) and sugar (46%), leaving consumers no alternative but to spend more. The growth of beverages (8%), on the other hand, came from increased in-home consumption.

WELCOME TO CONSUMER INDEX

• The growth of Thailand’s total FMGC market fell slightly from the last quarter as consumers shopped less frequently, mainly from the personal care category. Especially bar soap and talcum consumption was reduced, correlating to the weather in Thailand with lower temperatures than in the past year.

• In Taiwan, the health concept maintained its popularity as essence (e.g. chicken or clam essence) drove the growth of packaged groceries. Its momentum came from an expanded buyer base and higher buyer demand, leading to a growth rate of 23.1%.

• As the top spending sector in urban Vietnamese households, dairy products continued to drive the two-digit growth rate of the FMCG market with 26% and played an increasing role in the Vietnamese FMCG wallet share.

The data used for this issue runs up to Quarter 4, 2010 and is sourced from our Worldpanel network in the Asia region.

I would be delighted to answer any questions you might have or to hear your thoughts and views on this publication. Please contact us by e-mail on [email protected]

Best regards,

MARCY KOUManaging Director Worldpanel Asia

FMCG Trends % Value Changes

Quarter 1 2011

China(urban national)

Korea

Taiwan

Vietnam(4 key cities)

Philippines(national)

Thailand(national)

Malaysia(peninsula)

4.2

20.9

8.3

20.7

9.4

5.8

8.2

2

CATEGORY TRENDSFMCG spending in national urban China increased by 20.9% in Quarter 1 2011. Beverages noted the strongest growth of 26.7% compared to last year. Household products followed closely, with a growth rate of 23.9%.

Within the beverage category, the driving force came from alcoholic products, especially Chinese spirits. While the total volume of Chinese spirits only increased by 2.7%, a price-up led to a 30% value increase, proving that demand remained stable for this type of product.

Within the household product category, laundry products and tissues mainly contributed to the value growth, while their volume growth was less evident. Facing the pressure of increasing raw material costs, some manufacturers increased their prices for these products.

RETAIL LANDSCAPEModern trade (hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience stores) kept growing, especially in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chengdu. Here, the concentration level of key retailers remains much higher than in other cities. Groceries and other traditional channels are still very important in China. Kantar Worldpanel also saw free channels (gifts, free samples and products provided at the work place) growing their market share.

Hypermarkets noted a 30% growth rate. The top 5 retailers’ value share lies at around 20% of modern trade in urban China. RT-mart is the biggest retailer in national China, even though people only go to RT-mart once a month on average, while they visit modern trade channels about once a week.

* Statistics source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Apr.2011

CHINA Quarter 1 2011 CHINA

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORSChina’s GDP growth for the first quarter of 2011 was 9.7%, compared to the same time last year, and 2.1% higher than in the last quarter of 2010. The total sales of consumer goods increased by 16.3% compared to last year.

Consumer prices rose by 5% since last year, strongly driven by rural areas (5.5%) while prices in urban areas increased by 4.9%. However, the income per Household grew at a much higher rate, at 12.3% for urban residents and 20.6% for rural residents.

For the first quarter of 2011, the total volume exports increased by 26.5%, while imports grew by 32.6%.*

Supermarket/CVS

Hypermarket

Grocery/Food ST

W.U. /Gift /Sample

Whole Sales

Others

19.4 19.416.2

22.420.619.9

2.3 1.8 0.9

16.61716.3

21 22.5 24.1

19.818.821.1

TRADE CHANNEL TREND Value Shares %

TRADE CHANNEL TREND % value change vs previous year

Supermarket/ CVS

Hypermarket

Grocery / Food ST

Whole Sales

W.U. /Gift /Sample

MAT10 Q1 MAT11 Q1

CATEGORY VALUE % change vs previous year in value

MAT10 Q3 MAT11 Q1

Hypermarkets noted a 30% growth rate.

MAT09 Q1 MAT10 Q1 MAT11 Q1

MAT10 Q4

Total FMCG

Beverage

Package Grocery

Dairy

Personal Care

Household Products

14.5

18.4

15.1

18.8

12.7

13.6

19.4

23.5

19.7

20.7

16.8

23

20.9

26.7

22

17

15.3

23.9

-3.9

15.8

12.4

-13.6

11.5

27.4

29.7

17.9

-40.8

31.8

3

KOREA Quarter 1 2011

CATEGORY TRENDSThe FMCG market has grown by 5.8% in Q1 2011, the growth rate holding relatively steady since last year. The personal care market picked up steam thanks to the rapid growth of hair and body care products (19.8% and 15.8%, respectively), as buyers have increased, spending volumes are rising and usage is becoming more individual-oriented.

Household products saw a growth boost through an increase in average spending per household.

The dairy category further contracted to post a negative growth of -0.7%. The contraction is directly related to the Foot and Mouth Disease limiting the supply of milk. Manufacturers and consumers seem to be looking at soy milk as an alternative, and the category posted an astonishing year-on-year growth of 33.3%.

RETAIL LANDSCAPE The two leading outlets, hypermarkets and supermarkets only just held their ground in the retail landscape, while the Internet channel posted a year-on-year growth of 20.3%.

The retail environment is growing more sophisticated, with people depending less on modern trade, but shopping around and picking channels and deals based on their needs (convenience, price competitiveness, diverse product availability, etc.), which is evident from the increase in the average number of channels used by households (from 12.5 to 13.0).

Home channels, led by the Internet, aided the growth of household products through an increase in pack sizes, while department stores and road shops (selling cosmetics) saw an increase in frequency and price through demand diversification and trade-up movements in the beauty-related categories.

KOREAKEY ECONOMIC INDICATORSIn the first quarter of 2011, Korea’s real GDP recorded a year-on-year growth of 4.2% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.4%. This growth was led mostly by the manufacturing sector that saw a growth of 9.9% and 3.2%, respectively, while the construction sector took a step back as it continued on a negative growth path.

The Consumer Price Index saw an increase of 4.5% compared to last year, and 1.8% compared to the last quarter. The food and non-alcoholic beverage sector continued to lead the upward price movement, raising much concern about its effect on the public’s quality of life.


7.6

14.3

5.2

3.4

9.4

3.4

5.9

22.3

3.5

0.8

5.2

3.1

5.8

22.3

3.4

-0.7

6.3

5


Manufacturers and consumers seem to be looking at soy milk as an alternative to cow’s milk, and the category posted an astonishing year-on-year growth of 33.3%.


40 41.442.3

6.5 5.4 4.6

22.3 23.3 23.2

31.2 30 29.9

Supermarket/CVS


Hypermarket Others

Grocery /Provision*



Supermarket

Hypermarket

Grocery & Provision*

Others

13.5

8.8

4.6

6.1

13.7

4.7

-9.7

12.9

-8.9

* Grocery and Provision = Mom & Pop Stores

5.4

5.6

8.1

Total FMCG

Beverage*

Package Grocery

Dairy

Personal Care*

Household Products*

4

MALAYSIAMALAYSIA Quarter 1 2011

CATEGORY TRENDSTotal FMCG registered a growth of 7% from the previous quarter, driven by the Chinese New Year season. The 9.2% growth performance was definitely better compared to the same time last year. Despite price pressure coming from non FMCG items like vegetables, meat and petrol, consumers still spent more than average during the festive season. Within FMCG, a price increase could be seen for sugar and dairy products.

Food categories like cold beverages, staples and several impulse categories, which are traditionally picked up during this festive period, continued to do well compared to the previous year.

In Malaysia, this festive season saw a better performance than in the previous year as the economy recovers. Shoppers are still picking up more during the festive season despite price pressures coming from non-FMCG categories like meat, vegetables and petrol.

RETAIL LANDSCAPE Supermarkets continue to be the key trade in Malaysia. For the festive period, they recorded a 12.3% growth compared to a year ago, driven primarily by local chains like Econsave and Mydin that have been performing well and expanded their number of stores throughout 2010. Econsave and Mydin’s growth came mainly from the Malays.

Hypermarkets cashed in on the festive season, recording a 19% growth in quarter 1. Key players like Giant, Carrefour and Tesco registered a better performance compared to the previous year’s Chinese New Year period, attracting more shoppers with their aggressive advertising on print and in-store promotions.

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORSMalaysia’s economy remained stable, with a projected growth of 5.2% for 2011. Domestic demand continues to drive growth, as a result of the government’s policy measures. This is evident in the boost in car sales in the first quarter of the year.The Consumer Price Index for March went up to 3%, with rising food prices and transportation being the main factors. So far, consumers are still coping with the price increase; however they are starting to show apprehension through the Consumer Sentiment Index, which went down by 9 points compared to the previous quarter.


3.5

5

1.1

6.2

5.4

5

6.6

10.8

3.6

11.9

7.4

5.8

8.3

6.2

14.3

8.3

7.2


9

Despite price pressures consumers still spent more than average during the festive season.

Supermarkets

Hypermarkets

Groceries & PVC

Direct Sales

Other

11.7

11.9

8.2

-4.3

14.1

2.7

0.7

-3

12

8.7

11.7

7.6

7.5

-0.1

-1.2




2.3

MAT09 Q1

Supermarkets

27.9

7.1

24.1

38.6

2.5

28.1

7.8

24.3

37.4

7.2

29.4

2.2

24.4

36.8

MAT10 Q1 MAT11 Q1

Hypermarkets

Grocery & PVS*

*incl. convenience stores

Direct Sales

Others

Total FMCG

Beverage

Package Grocery

Dairy

Toiletries

Household Care

5

The food growth of 13% can largely be attributed to price increases, in particular for basic commodities such as cooking oil (23%), salt (14%) sugar (46%), catsup (6%) and fish sauce (7%), leaving consumers no alternative but to spend more.

The growth of beverages (8%) in the latest quarter, on the other hand, came from increased in-home consumption of soft drinks, powder juice, bottled water, energy and sports drinks and coffee.

RETAIL LANDSCAPEThe Philippines retail landscape continues to heavily rely on provision stores, accounting for 54% of the total FMCG spending in the latest year. Provision stores posted a 12% growth in the latest quarter following an uplift in food (18%), beverages (11%), and personal care (11%) products. Food in provision stores is likewise mainly driven by price increases.

Supermarkets, on the other hand, also posted a strong growth in the latest year with top key accounts such as Puregold and SM continuing their store expansions. Drug stores on the other hand, were still recovering, relying heavily on their strength in milk products.


PHILIPPINESKEY ECONOMIC INDICATORSThe Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product grew 4.9% in the first quarter of 2011. This was way below last year’s growth of 8.4% as the election season nears. While this quarter’s growth saw increased investments in fixed capital formation and household spending, the government’s underspending and the global trade slowdown were the main reasons forthe slow growth of the economy. Inflation, on the other hand, stood at 4.1% in Q1 2011 with food and oil prices soaring continuously.

CATEGORY TRENDSFilipinos’ FMCG spending continuously surged in the latest quarter as it posted an 8% growth year-on-year following an uplift in food, beverages and personal care spending. Household care spending remained flat with any gains from fabric softeners, dishwashing, and paper products offset by declines in laundry bars and insecticides.

PHILIPPINESQuarter 1 2011


6.4

MAT10 Q3

9.2

10.2

3.1

5.6

-6.9 -4.8

6

6

11.7

8.2

7.4

-1.2

5.1

5.2

13.7

8.3

8.2

MAT10 Q4 MAT11 Q1


Supermarkets

Drugstores

Groceries

PVS

0.9


15.1

9.6

9.5

9

-8.2

9

3.9

6.9

8.2

-7.6

12

Provision stores posted a 12% growth in the latest quarter.

MAT09 Q1

7.5

Supermarkets

52.4

11

5.6

23.9

7.4

51.9

11.4

4.5

24.8

7.6

53.7

9.7

4.5

24.5

MAT10 Q1 MAT11 Q1

DrugstoresGroceries

PVSOthers

Total FMCG

Beverage

Package Grocery

Dairy

Personal Care

Household Products

6

TAIWAN Quarter 1 2011

Packaged groceries showed strong growth at a rate of 10.8%. In this sector, the health concept maintained its popularity as essence (e.g. chicken or clam essence) drove the growth. Its momentum came from an expanded buyer base and higher buyer demand, leading to a growth rate of 23.1%.

The growth of personal care was mainly driven by hair care products, especially treatments, where consumers upgraded to premium products, as well as the growing popularity of blemish balm (BB) cream, bringing new buyers to the makeup category.

A price hike of cheese and milk (both in liquid and powder) caused the value growth of the dairy sector.

Household products and beverages reported a softer growth compared to the total market, at 7.7% and 5.7% separately. Among household products, liquid laundry detergents, which are relatively high priced, continually prospered due to more and more buyers.

RETAIL LANDSCAPE Hypermarkets, the biggest channel, reported a value growth of 5.8% compared to last year, slightly losing channel importance from 26.2% to 25.4%. Carrefour and RT-mart underperformed in terms of average growth, while Costco enjoyed double-digit growth thanks to its aggressive recruitment and selective high quality products.

PX-mart in National Coop continued to show a visible growth of 18.3% in value, with a 1% gain in channel importance. The uplift in buyer base and demand contributed to its growth.The main players in convenience stores, 7-Eleven and Family Mart, both performed well in attracting buyers and encouraging consumer spending, leading to the thriving overall growth for this retail channel.

Drug stores also experienced a double-digit growth in value, mostly driven by the price hike of milk powder and the strong demand for health food and skincare brands.

TAIWANKEY ECONOMIC INDICATORSThe preliminary GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2011 was set at 6.6%. In addition to a high demand from abroad, the consumers’ rising confidence was reflected in the actual consumption levels, leading to a double digit growth in retailer sales.

The Q1 2011 Consumer Price Index increased by 1.3%, whereas the prices for merchandize – in specific for fruits, meat and aquatic products - increased stronger than those for services, which maintained relatively stable. The unemployment rate was 4.5% in March 2011 and averaged at 4.6% in quarter 1. The figure this quarter was 1.1% lower than in the first quarter of last year thanks to the continuous economic recovery.

CATEGORY TRENDSTaiwan’s FMCG market grew by 9.4% in the latest year. The packaged grocery and personal care categories outperformed the rest of the market in terms of value growth.

CATEGORY VALUE % change vs previous year in valueMAT10 Q3

6.4 10 7.7

12.1 8.3 9.7

16.9 12.7 9.4

11.6 11.6 10.9

7.8 5.1 5.7

10.7 9.5 9.4

MAT10 Q4 MAT11 Q1


Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Nat. Coop

CVS

Direct Sales

Drugstores

Department Stores

Grocery & Provision

11.8

MAT09 Q1

-4.3

9.4

-0.1

-1.5

-3.5

-19

-17.1

5.8

1.4

8

-0.7

0.6

14.8

22.1

-10.6

5.8

-2.7

18.3

12.4

17.2

11.9

6.8

3.2

MAT10 Q1 MAT11 Q1


Hypermarkets

27.8


5.2

3.62.4

7.4

12.2

6.3

8.4

26.8

29.4

5.5

4.12

6.8

12.2

5.9

7.9

26.2

29.6

5.6

41.9

7

13.2

6.3

7.1

25.4

SupermarketsDirect SalesDrugStoresGrocery & Provision

Nat. CoopCVSOthersDepartment Stores

Among household products, liquid laundry detergents, which are relatively high priced, continually prospered due to more and more buyers.

Total FMCG

Beverage

Package Grocery

Dairy

Personal Care

Household Products

7

CATEGORY TRENDSThe growth of the total FMGC market fell slightly from the last quarter as consumers shopped less frequently, mainly from the personal care category. Especially bar soap and talcum consumption was reduced, correlating to the weather in Thailand with lower temperatures than in the past year. For packaged groceries, the 1% growth mainly came from an oil shortage in Thailand which increased the price of oil.

The dairy product growth was slightly lower than in the previous quarter as prices still stayed high; however, consumers shopped less liquid milk for home consumption.

Beverages saw less value growth this quarter since price promotions on coffee didn’t help increase volumes sufficiently to grow at the same rate as in the previous quarter.

RETAIL LANDSCAPE The movement from open trade to modern trade remained stable; as consumers still value modern trade, especially convenience stores due to their store expansions, leaving traditional trade with decreasing shares of consumer spending over time.

Hypermarkets saw higher growth rates than last year as Tesco Lotus expanded its number of stores in both urban and rural areas and rural consumers in the high income group grew their basket spend in hypermarkets.

Grocery and provision stores noted slightly higher growth rates as prices increased. Growth slowed down for convenience stores with high number of stores, since the number of shoppers remained stable while they maintained their basket spend.

THAILANDKEY ECONOMIC INDICATORSIn the first quarter of 2011 the Thai economy expanded continuously from the last quarter of 2010 according to the Bank of Thailand. The growth was supported by robust domestic demand while the flooding in the south showed limited impact on the economy. Export and tourism sectors also continued to grow noticeably.

The economic stability remained robust. Headline inflation in March 2011 increased by 3.1% per year driven by price hikes in fruits, vegetables, transportation and fuel.

The Consumer Price Index in March rose by 3.4% compared to the previous year driven by the rise of food and beverages.


THAILAND Quarter 1 2011


3.9 2.8 1.3

3 5.4 4

6.3 9.3 11.2

1.2 4 3.4

12.4 11.8 6.3

4.5 6.4 5.3


Supermarket

Hypermarket

Grocery & Provision

CVS

Direct Sales

Others

MAT09 Q1

2

22.8

4.3

11.8

7.5

12.8

3.7

5.7

2.4

15

13.5

7.5

2

13.7

3

4.8

7.6

MAT10 Q1 MAT11 Q1

Hypermarkets saw higher growth rates than last year as Tesco Lotus expanded its number of stores in both urban and rural areas and rural consumers in the high income group grew their basket spend in hypermarkets.

Supermarkets

MAT09 Q1

15.9

6.1

9.2

39.1

19.4

10.3

15.3

6.7

10.1

38.2

19.6

10.2

15.2

6.5

10.9

37

20

10.4

MAT10 Q1 MAT11 Q1

Hypermarkets

Grocery & Provision

CVS

Direct Sales

Others*


* including drug stores & department stores

Total FMCG

Beverage

Package Grocery

Dairy

Personal Care

Household Products

0.5

8

VIETNAMVIETNAM Quarter 1 2011

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORSIn the first quarter of 2011, the GDP grew by 5.4% compared to last year, the lowest quarterly growth rate since the third quarter of 2009. This slowdown resulted from the current economic instability, in which the escalating inflation and lending rates drove businesses to narrow production and consumers to curtail their expenses. The Consumer Price Index hit 13.9% in March 2011 as against 2010, rising by 2.2% from February - the biggest monthly increase since June 2008. This quick rise was mainly driven by higher food and fuel prices, in addition to electricity and the recent currency devaluation. Experts predict that the price pressure may peak in the third quarter at over 16% year-on-year before gradually declining towards the year end.

CATEGORY TRENDSUnder the steady price inflation upsurge, the total Fast Moving Consumer Goods market in MAT Q1 2011 achieved a value growth of 21%, however the volume growth was reduced significantly across all key FMCG sectors.

As the top spending sector in urban Vietnamese households, dairy products continued to drive the two-digit growth rate of the FMCG market with 26% and played an increasing role in the Vietnamese FMCG wallet share. Liquid milk and cup yoghurt were the hottest items as urban Vietnamese families kept purchasing them with a tremendous volume growth of 12% and 20% respectively.

Personal care and household care products maintained their importance in the share of wallet of urban households - around a quarter of their FMCG spending. However, a close-up revealed small categories emerging; such as hair colorants, mouth rinse, hand washing liquids and baby wipes as well as liquid detergents and house cleaners. These wide-ranged products grew both their consumer base and their consumption levels, indicating more sophisticated needs of urban Vietnamese families.

RETAIL LANDSCAPE In the first quarter specialty stores achieved the highest growth rate (35% in value) from a small base, which is driven by the strong growth of liquid milk and cup yoghurt – key categories for this channel.

Driven by the rapid development of hyper and supermarkets’ trade formats and shifting shopping habits from traditional channels, modern trade also grew fast with a 27% increases in terms of FCMG value sales in Q1 2011 versus the previous year. According to the 2009-2015 development plan of the Vietnamese government, modern trade retail is expected to mushroom in the next five years. Accordingly Ho Chi Minh City aims to modernise its retail structure by reducing the number of wet-markets and double the hyper-supermarkets from 82 to 177 outlets as well as quadruple the department stores from 22 to 163 stores by 2015.



14.9 15 12.7

18.2 20 17.3

26.9 28.7 26.1

13.5 18.4 20.9

19.2 20.7 17.8

19.7 22.2 20.7


Specialty stores achieved the highest growth rate (35% in value), driven by the strong growth of liquid milk and cup yoghurt.


Grocery & Provision

Market

Modern Trade*

Specialty

MAT09 Q1

13.9

7.8

9.9

-11.7

20.1

23.3

28.6

27.5

18.5

19.2

26.5

34.9

MAT10 Q1 MAT11 Q1

Grocery & Provision

Market

Modern Trade*Specialty

Others

* Department Store, Hyper Super, Minimarket, Direct Sales & Whole Sales.

Total FMCG

Beverage

Package Grocery

Dairy

Personal Care

Household Products

18.6

2.2

63.4

12.2

3.6

19.5

2.2

62.3

12.3

3.7

MAT09 Q1 MAT10 Q1

19.7

2.1

62

12.3

3.9

MAT11 Q1

For more information, please contact:

[email protected] +603 2787 8898

METHODOLOGY:

A consumer panel is a permanent, syndicated and representative sample of consumers, who provide ongoing details of the fast moving consumer goods they purchase. Using a diary format, each panel member records the details of every item they purchase.

SAMPLE SIZES:

CountryCurrent (Actual) Sample

Sample Size CoverageChina 40,000 National UrbanKorea 3,000 National

Malaysia 2,500 PeninsulaPhilippines 3,000 National

Taiwan 2,500 NationalThailand 4,000 NationalVietnam 2,150 4 key cities

CATEGORY UNIVERSE:

FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods (Includes Food, Beverages, Personal Care and Household Products)

CHANNEL DEFINITION:

Hypermarket General self service stores selling food and beverage, clothing, household and electrical equipment. Grouping of all stores with hypermarket format (country specific definition)

Supermarket Self service store, providing shopping basket / trolley. Grouping of all stores with supermarket formats (country specific definition) Note: China includes 24 hours opening convenient stores in Supermarket.

Convenience Stores (CVS)

General self service, chain or non chain stores, selling food & beverage, takeaway fast food and limited personal care and household products. Long (often 24 hour) store opening hours

Drugstore Includes pharmacies, chemists, Chinese Medical Halls, beauty stores

Department Store Product offering extends beyond FMCG to clothing, household appliance, family and beauty. Often products sold on a counter / department basis

Grocery/Provision/ Liquor Store

Includes sundry/traditional/mom and pop stores, all markets (wet, night, day), liquor stores, convenience, petrol forecourt outlets

Direct Sales Direct Mail, Direct Delivery and Direct Sales Outlets

Note: Channel definitions do differ slightly from country to country and in some countries a particular channel may not be available or tracked.

SOURCES AND DEFINITIONS

ConsumerIndex - Kantar Worldpanel · 2014-03-09 · chains like Econsave and Mydin that have been...

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