Consumer Sentimen Index
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Transcript of Consumer Sentimen Index
Consumer confidence is often cited by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan as a key determinant of near-term economic
growth (Greenspan, 2002)
People can grab onto a small situation that
garners a lot of mainstream press, such as gas
prices, and use that as their basis for overall
economic conditions, fair or not.
There are no real data sets here, and people are
not economists, so they cannot be counted on to
realize that, for example, because gas prices may
only represent 5% of their expenses, they should
not sour their entire economic outlook.
To assess near-time consumer attitudes on the
business climate, personal finance, and spending
To promote an understanding of, and to forecast
changes in, the national economy
To provide a means of incorporating empirical
measures of consumer expectations into models
of spending and saving behavior
To gauge the economic expectations and
probable future spending behavior of the
consumer
To judge the consumer's level of
optimism/pessimism
Mishkin (1978) finds the Index of ConsumerSentimentdoes a good job of predicting spending on consumer durables
Matsusaka and Sbordone (1995) find a relation between the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and GDP growth
Recently, Gelper et al (2007); Jason Bram and Sydney Ludvigson (1998); Carroll et al. (1994)also found that the Index of Consumer Sentiment has predictive power for future consumer consumption
Kantona (1956) in Consumer Expectation 1953-56 quoted that Consumer Survey will catch the consumers characteristic of their optimism or pessimism.
StrengthsOne of few indicators that reaches out to average households
Has historically been a good predictor of consumer spending and, therefore, the gross domestic product (consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of real GDP)
Weaknesses:A subjective survey with no physical data sets
Small sample size (only 5,000 households)
Survey results may contradict other indicators, such as GDP and the Labor report
Daniel M. Merkle, Gary E. Langer & Dalia Sussman, 2003. Consumer
Confidence: Measurement and Meaning.
Tri. IV 2014 Tri. I Tri. II Tri. III
<2 Juta Rupiah 54,23 50,00 48,12 47,39
2 s/d 5 Juta Rupiah 35,38 36,40 39,33 41,74
>5 Juta Rupiah 10,38 13,60 12,55 10,87
TW- IV 2014 TW I TW II TW III
SD 27,31 26,40 25,94 27,39
SMP 13,46 14,00 17,99 11,74
SLTA 38,46 40,40 33,89 38,26
Akademi 3,85 3,60 3,77 3,04
Sarjana 15,38 14,00 15,06 15,65
Pascasarjana 1,54 1,60 3,35 3,91
Tri. IV 2014 Tri. I Tri. II Tri. III
Primer 6,54 8,40 10,46 9,57
Skunder 15,39 15,60 14,65 15,22
Tersier 66,15 64,40 66,53 67,83
Penerima pendapatan 11,92 11,60 8,37 7,39
Tri. IV 2012 Tri. I Tri. II Tri. III
Berusaha 39,23 39,60 39,49 35,22
Buruh/Karyawan/Pegawai 48,85 48,80 53,14 57,39
Penerima pendapatan 11,92 11,60 8,37 7,39
102.42
106.32
110.32 110.26
104.70
108.02
112.06109.89
96
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112
114
Tri. I Tri. II Tri. III Tri. IV*)
Lampung
Nasional
Bagaimana perubahan harga barang/jasa
kebutuhan rumah tangga selama 3 bulan
terakhir (Januari-Maret 2015) dibandingkan 3
bulan yang lalu (Oktober-Desember 2014):
Meningkat (> 20%) -1 Relatif sama -4
Meningkat sedang (10-20%) -2 Menurun -5
Meningkat sedikit (<10%) - 3
Jika jawaban Relatif sama (kode 4) langsung
ke Rincian 7
Kelompok Barang/JasaMening
kat
TetapMenurun
Perubahan Volume:
1. Bahan makanan/minuman. 1 2 3
2. Makanan/minuman jadi,
rokok, tembakau, dan makan di
restoran/rumah makan.
1 2 3
3.Pakaian 1 2 3
4.Pembelian Pulsa HP 1 2 3
Perubahan Frekuensi:
5. Rekreasi/hiburan (nonton di
bioskop, karaoke, ke tempat
hiburan)
1 2 3
6. Akomodasi (hotel/penginapan) 1 2 3
7. Transportasi 1 2 3
8. Perawatan kesehatan dan
kecantikan (gym, salon, spa,
dll. )
1 2 3
6. Bagaimana volume/frekuensi konsumsi barang/jasa
di bawah ini selama 3 bulan terakhir (Januari-Maret
2015) dibandingkan 3 bulan sebelumnya (Oktober-
Desember 2014)
15. Menurut Bapak/Ibu, apakah dalam 3 bulan
terakhir (Januari-Maret 2015) merupakan
waktu yang tepat bagi rumah tangga untuk
membeli barang-barang tahan lama, seperti
barang elektronik (televisi, laptop, komputer),
peralatan rumah tangga (kulkas, kompor gas,
AC, mesin cuci), perhiasan logam/batu mulia
perabot meubelair (meja/kursi, lemari,
buffet), perangkat komunikasi (telepon seluler,
tablet), dan alat olahraga dan kesehatan
(sepeda, treadmill, dll):
Ya, waktu yang tepat -1
Tidak, bukan waktu yang tepat -2
Lainnya -3