January 2017

Consumer Mood MonitorBrexit Driving Down Consumer Confidence & Spend

Brexit driving down Consumer Confidence & Spend

Consumer Outlook for the Irish economy sees a significant decline, following the recent “hard Brexit” announcement by the UK Government –less than 2 in 5 now believe the economy will fare better in the next 6 months.

There is also less certainty in terms of future disposable income and employment opportunities, and as a result consumers feel a slight worsening of their personal finances.

Spend intention for the next 6 months sees a decrease for all product categories, except holidays. Especially spend for entertainment/socialising is affected.

Consumer spend in the Republic of Ireland is also affected by the weaker British Pound with many consumers shopping more online directly from the UK or across the Border to Northern Ireland.

The economic recovery is largely seen to have no positive impact on the housing market or the social housing problems in Ireland.

Consumer Mood - Headline Facts

61% would like to see a United Ireland as a result of Brexit – down from 67% in October.

77% are worried

that Brexit will have a negative impact on Ireland’s economy –up from 72% in October.

71% believe the

economic recovery is underway –unchanged from October but down from 76% in June

Fewer people expect their disposable income to increase in the next 6 months – down from 27% in

Oct to 20% now.

Fewer believe the Irish economy will improve in the next 6 months – from 52% in June to just

39% now

Intention to spend among the public has decreased across all product categories, except holidays.

Only 15% expect

to increase spend on entertainment and Consumer goods in the next 6 months –down 5% since Oct.

29% claim to have

purchased more goods online directly from the UK since the Brexit

21% are now

suggesting they are struggling financially – up from 19% in October.

Consumer Outlook for

the economy is down

significantly following

the announcement of a

potential “hard Brexit”.

How do you expect the Irish economy to fare in the next 6 months?

4851

4147

5046

36

48 49

61

71 71

7981 86 88

9390 89

8682

75

2225

19 21 23 21

1418 19

3235

41

49 52

55 5963

60 61

5248

39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb '10 May '10 Sep '10 Mar '11 Jun '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Jun '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Jun' 13 Oct '13 Jan '14 Jun '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Jun '15 Oct '15 Jan'16 Jun '16 Oct '16 Jan '17

NET Better/Same Better

Consumer outlook for the Irish economy sees further declines following the announcement of a potential “hard Brexit” from the UK Government.

14 12 8 8 5 7 79 14

207 6 6 3 2 4 2

44

4

45 48 50 52 55 48 55 44 43 34

1 1 1 1 812 6

8 54

Much worse (1)

Average

Stay the same (3)

Slightly worse (2)

NET Same/ Better (3-5)

How do you expect the Irish economy to fare in the next 6 months?

Less than 2 in 5 now expect the economy to improve in the next 6 months.

× 1 in 5 expect the economy to fare worse in the next 6 months.

Much better (5)

Slightly better (4)

30

3.62

93

Jun‘15%

31

3.41

86

Oct‘14%

34

3.43

86

Jun‘16%

36

3.14

75

Jan‘17%

29

Jan’14%

3.25

79

3.31

81

Jun‘14%

29 29

3.52

88

Jan‘15%

3.59

90

30

Oct‘15%

Jan‘16%

28

89

3.56

34

3.32

82

Oct‘16%

Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now % Stating they believe it will be better

39 4037

4642

30

3842

39 4137 36

41

18-24%

25-34%

35-44%

AGE

45-54%

Any%

None%

CHILDREN

Male%

Female%

GENDER

ABC1%

C2DE%

SOCIALCLASS

TOTAL%

Change sinceOct‘16

-9% -11% -9% -7% -9% -16% -6% -12% -8% -9% -10%

55-64%

-10%

65+%

-8%

The 18-24 year olds are more optimistic about the Irish economy than the rest of the population. All groups see a decline in consumer mood since October 2016 – in particular the squeezed middle age groups.

39 40 40 36 40

Munster%

Connaught/Ulster

%Dublin

%

Rest ofLeinster

%

REGION

TOTAL%

% Better

% Better or Same 74 737578

75

Expectations for the Irish economy across the country…

Change % since Oct ‘16-7% -7% -6% -10% -7%

All regions see a significant decline in consumer mood. People living in Munster are less optimistic compared to the rest of the country.

Better or SameBetter -9% -8% -9% -13% -8%

Expectations for the World Economy

78

71 7166

61

41 40

49

57

6873

8177

82

72

7782

71

60

69 68

55

4851

4147

5046

36

48 49

61

71 71

79 81

8688

9390 89

8682

75

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb '10 May '10 Sep '10 Mar '11 Jun '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Jun '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Jun' 13 Oct '13 Jan '14 Jun '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Jun '15 Oct '15 Jan '16 Jun '16 Oct '16 Jan '17

World Economy Irish Economy% NET Better/Same

(next 6 months)

Expectations for the World Economy see a significant decline from October 2016 to January 2017 – impacting on outlook for the Irish economy.

1 in 4 believe the World Economy will fare better in the next 6 months.

× But more than 2 in 5 feel the World Economy will get worse in the next six months.

16 12 19 16 12 21 31 24 25 356 54 5 4

76 6 5

9

44 40 37 40 4131

2826 27

22

4 32 3 4

54 3 3

2

Much better (5)

Much worse (1)

Average

Stay the same (3)

Slightly better (4)

Slightly worse (2)

NET Same/Better (3-5)

How do you expect the World economy to fare in the next 6 months?

34

3.13

72

Oct‘14%

37

3.31

82

Jun‘15%

35

3.06

71

Oct‘15%

Oct‘16%

38

2.98

68

29

Jan‘14%

3.26

77

3.25

82

Jun‘14%

38 34

3.19

77

Jan‘15%

29

60

2.92

Jan‘16%

41

2.96

69

Jun‘16%

32

2.72

55

Jan‘17%

11 7

1615

26 33

46 44

Impact of Brexit on Ireland’s Economy

More than 3 in 4 are now worried that Brexit will have a negative impact on Ireland’s economy – this is up +5% since October 2016.

NET: Agree

Disagree strongly (1)

Agree slightly (3)

Disagree slightly (2)

NET: Disagree 27

%

“I am worried that Brexit will have a negative impact

on Ireland's economy” Oct2016

Jan2017

23

%

Agree strongly (4)

72 77

Who are worried that Brexit will have a negative impact on Ireland’s Economy

Across the population, there is significant concerns about the impact of Brexit on Ireland’s economy.

77%76% 78%

Gender 74%

74%

84%

77%

75%

75%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

54-65

65+

Age

ABC1: 78%

C2DE: 75%

Social Class Region

Rest of Leinster

81%Munster

79%

Conn/ Ulster

75%Dublin

73%

Less people are feeling

they are comfortable

financially due to

concerns over future

income, employment

& price levels.

UnderwayBenefitting

You Personally

Do you believe that an Economic Recovery in Ireland is…?

7 in 10 believe that an economic recovery is underway, with approximately half feeling a positive, personal impact of the recovery.

76%

77%

76%

71%

71%

46%

50%

46%

45%

48%68% conversion

Almost 1 in 3 of those who believe in

the recovery claim that this recovery has not benefitted them

personally

Oct 2016

Jan 2016

Oct 2015

Jun 2016

Jan 2017

Oct 2016

Jan 2016

Oct 2015

Jun 2016

Jan 2017

The 18-34 year olds are more likely to believe the economic recovery is underway…

29%(=)

32% 26%

Higher Social Grades: 23%

Lower Social Grades: 33%

Age19%

20%

35%

32%

32%

33%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Gender

Social Class Region

Rest of Leinster

28%Munster

32%

Conn/ Ulster

27%

Dublin

29%

Total – 3 in 10 do not believe the economic recovery is underway

61% 60% 60%

48%

42%

47%

41%

55% 54%

45%

40% 41% 41%

48%51%

57% 56%

44%

29%

47%44%

57% 56%

60%

42%

46%43%

41%

Personal benefits of recovery by life stage% Stating Yes

The younger life stages are more likely to feel personal benefits of the economic recovery.

Established Families

Empty Nester

TwilighterNew

FamiliesMatureFamilies

Young and Free

Early Settlers

Oct2016

Jan2016

June2016

Jan2017

52% 51%48% 47%

50%

43% 44%

48%48% 47%

40%42%

54%

49%

40%

48%

Personal benefits of recovery by region% Stating Yes

Dubliners are more likely to feel the personal benefits of the recovery compared to the rest of the country.

Dublin Rest of Leinster Munster Connaught/Ulster

Oct2016

Jan2016

June2016

Jan2017

Expectations for the next 6 months for…

The decline in consumer confidence has impacted negatively on expectations for disposable income and employment opportunities.

17 13

3 5

23 19

4 2Much better (5)

Much worse (1)

Stay the same (3)

Slightly better (4)

Slightly worse (2)

NET Better (4-5)

53

27

%

8143

5

48 36

9

6Much better (5)

Much worse (1)

Stay the same (3)

Slightly better (4)

Slightly worse (2)

NET Better (4-5)

32

57

%

Your Disposable Income

Employment; the ability to get & move

jobs

Oct2016

Jan2017

60

21

%

38

42

%

Expectations for disposable income in the next 6 months? % Stating they believe it will be better

2125

18

3234

1822

12 13

28

16

21 22

18-24%

25-34%

35-44%

AGE

45-54%

Any%

None%

CHILDREN

Male%

Female%

GENDER

ABC1%

C2DE%

SOCIALCLASS

TOTAL%

55-64%

65+%

The 18-34 year olds and higher social classes remain more positive about their disposable income than the rest of the population.

Personal Finances

Living Comfortably

Struggling to Make Ends Meet

Neither Comfortable,Nor Struggling

After a positive trend in personal finances over the past few waves, we see a notable decline in the proportion who claim that they are living comfortable in January 2017.

32 27 25 23 23 21 19 21

29 31 34 36 37 40 40 36 -4

+2

Oct’15%

41

Oct’14%

40

Jan’15%

42

June’15%

41

+2

Jan‘16%

40

June‘16%

39

Oct‘16%

41

Jan‘17%

43

Who is Struggling to Make Ends Meet?

21%(+2%)

21% 21%

Higher Social Grades: 12%

Lower Social Grades: 29%

Age17%

21%

26%

21%

15%

21%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Gender

Social Class Region

Rest of Leinster

20%Munster

20%

Conn/ Ulster

19%

Dublin

23%

Total – 1 in 5 struggle to make ends meet

The 35-44 year olds and lower social classes are more likely to be struggling to make ends meet.

20%

16%

28%27%

33%

21%

12%

19%

21%

24%

29%

23%

18%

13%13%

15%

24%

16%

30%

19%

12%

14% 14%

16%

27%

31%

17%

15%

Who is struggling to make ends meet?% Struggling to make ends meet

Established and Mature Families are more likely to be struggling to make ends meet.

Established Families

Empty Nester

TwilighterNew

FamiliesMatureFamilies

Young and Free

Early Settlers

Oct2016

Jan2016

June2016

Jan2017

6%(-1)

7%(-2)

23%(-1)

12%(=)

12%(-1)

19%(+3)

11%(+1)

6%(=)

3%(=)

Current Difficulty

Future Opportunity

Comfortable

Neither Comfortable nor Struggling

Struggling

No Recovery Recovery & Benefitting

Recovery & NOT benefitting

Relationship between Economic Situation and Impact of Recovery

Unaffected Stable Booming

Resigned Treading Water Improving

Desperate Hard Done By Emerging

( ) = change from June 2016

While more consumers are feeling personal benefits from the recovery, it is evident that less are feeling they are living comfortable. This is impacted by both disposable income/employment opportunities but also prices.

11%7% 10% 8% 9%

17%9% 10%

6%

4%2% 8%

11%

10%

5% 2%

12%

9% 10%7%

19%12%

13%11%

6%

3%8% 4%

5% 4%

5% 10%

12%

14%

13%

7%

14%9%

17%10%

7%

7%1%

8%

3%5%

8% 17%3%

2% 1%0%

6%5% 3%

3%19%

27%21% 31%

14%18% 20%

8%

23% 26%33%

27%18% 18% 19%

27%

Total Young and

Free Early

Settlers New

Families Established

Families MatureFamilies

EmptyNester Twilighter

Booming

Improving

Emerging

Stable

Treading water

Unaffected

Resigned

Hard done by

Desperate

The younger life stages are more likely to be booming/improving.

14% of the population is struggling financially and do not believe in the recovery while additional 9% strugglers believe in the recovery but not for them! 25% are well off and believe in the recovery.

The majority feel that the economic recovery has had little impact on ability to buy/rent home and Ireland’s social housing problems.

Do you believe that an Economic Recovery in Ireland is…?

Only 1 in 7 feel that the recovery has made it easier to buy or rent your own home. 1 in 5 feel that the recovery has helped resolve social housing problems in Ireland. This is similar to levels seen in October.

15%

85%

Making it easier for people to buy or rent

their own home

Yes

No

Helping to resolve the social housing problems in

Ireland

Oct2016

Jan2017

15%

85%

Yes

No

21%

79%

Yes

No

20%

80%

Yes

No

Oct2016

Jan2017

Oct2016

Jan2017

17%

13%14%

17%16%

13% 13%

22%

Compared to October 2016, we see an increase in the proportion of people in Connaught/Ulster who feel that the recovery has had a positive impact on buying/renting.

Dublin Rest of Leinster Munster Connaught/Ulster

Recovery Impact on Buying/Renting Your Own Home% Stating Economic Recovery has had a Positive Impact

Oct2016

Jan2017

Recovery Impact on Buying/Renting Your Own Home% Stating Economic Recovery has had a Positive Impact

15

18

13

30

1716

9

1214

15 1514

17

18-24%

25-34%

35-44%

AGE

45-54%

Any%

None%

CHILDREN

Male%

Female%

GENDER

ABC1%

C2DE%

SOCIALCLASS

TOTAL%

55-64%

65+%

The 18-24 year olds are more likely to state that the recovery has had a positive impact on buying/renting your own home.

Future consumer spending is likely to be impacted by Brexit uncertainties. The weaker Pound also impacts ROI spend.

Expected Increase in Spend In The Next 6 Months

15

1819

20

23

17

2425

26

3230

2426

9

13

1615

17 1718 18

25

22 2220

1516

18 1820

1920

15

19

22

1820

22

19

11

14

18

15

18 18

14

17

21

1719

22

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan '13 Jun' 13 Oct '13 Jan '14 Jun '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Jun '15 Oct '15 Jan '16 Jun '16 Oct '16 Jan '17

Holidays

Entertainment

Grocery Spend

Consumer Goods

% Likely to increase spend(next 6 months)

Spend intention sees a decrease for all product categories, except holidays. Entertainment spend, e.g. going out, particularly sees a longer term downward trend compared to a year ago.

9 9 10 13 7 9 6 7 13 12 11 12

9 11 11 129 8 7

93 3 1 3

6 5 35

7 10 12 9

18 19 16 1216 17 17 17

14 17 17 12 24 25 1922

4 3 42

2 3 5 23 2 5

37 5

54

Spend intention is largely in line with January last year, except for entertainment where we see a notable decline.

Increase a lot

Decrease a little

Entertainment such as going out, eating,

drinking or socialising

Grocery spend

Consumer goods and services – e.g.

hairdresser, clothes, mobile phone,

gaming etc.

Holidays and short

breaks

Increase a little

Stay the same

Expected Changes In Spend Over The Next 6 Months

Decrease a lot

60 71 64 54

Oct‘16

Jun‘16

Jan‘16

62 68 64 4963 70 64 5363 71 68 53

Jan‘17

% Likely to increase spend in next 6 months

Entertainment Grocery SpendConsumer

Goods/ ServicesHolidays/

Shorter Breaks

Total 15 19 15 26GenderMale 16 19 14 26Female 14 19 16 26Age18-24 30 22 23 4225-34 17 19 20 3635-44 14 26 12 2445-54 14 15 12 2355-64 12 17 15 2065+ 9 16 11 15Social ClassABC1 19 19 16 36C2DE 13 20 15 20Region

Dublin 18 23 21 32Rest of Leinster 14 21 11 23Munster 13 16 12 21Connaught/Ulster 14 15 15 25

The younger age groups and those based in Dublin are more likely to increase spend in the next 6 months…

48 4756

22 2219

19 2016

10 9 8

“I have been purchasing more goods from across the border in Northern Ireland since Brexit”

Brexit Impact on ROI Spend

The weaker Pound continues to have a significant impact on ROI consumer spend with almost 1 in 3 buying more online from the UK post-Brexit and 1 in 4 buying more across the border to Northern Ireland.

NET: Agree

Disagree strongly (1)

Agree slightly (3)

Disagree slightly (2)

NET: Disagree 70

%

“I have been purchasing more goods online directly from the UK since Brexit”

Oct2016

Jan2017

70

%

Agree strongly (4)

29 29

75

%

24

Brexit Impact on ROI Spend by Life Stage

The family life stages are more likely to have taken advantage of the weaker Point since the Brexit vote.

“I have been purchasing more goods from across

the border in N7 since Brexit”

31%

25%

38% 40%

35%

21%

15%

25%

24%25%

36%28%

12% 15%

Lifestage

“Purchasing more goods online directly from the UK since Brexit”

Young and Free Early Settlers New Families Established Families Mature Families Empty Nester Twilighter

Who has been purchasing more goods online directly from the UK since Brexit?

The younger age groups are more likely to have purchased more goods online directly from the UK as a result of the Brexit.

29%29% 29%

Gender 40%

35%

35%

28%

16%

24%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

54-65

65+

Age

ABC1: 33%

C2DE: 27%

Social Class Region

Rest of Leinster

25%Munster

27%

Conn/ Ulster

36%Dublin

31%

Who has been purchasing more goods across the Border in Northern Ireland since Brexit?

The younger age groups and those living in the Border Counties are more likely to have shopped more across the Border since the Brexit vote.

24%24% 24%

Gender 32%

27%

34%

20%

16%

15%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

54-65

65+

Age

ABC1: 24%

C2DE: 24%

Social Class Region

Rest of Leinster

21%Munster

20%

Conn/ Ulster

32%Dublin

26%

Those living in border counties

37%

The majority would still like to see a United Ireland, following Brexit. But the desire has waned somewhat since before Christmas and the collapse of the NI Assembly

15 18

1720

34 28

33 33

A United Ireland as result of the Brexit

3 in 5 would like to see a United Ireland as result of Brexit – this is down -6% since October 2016.

NET: Agree

Disagree strongly (1)

Agree slightly (3)

Disagree slightly (2)

NET: Disagree 32

%

“I would like to see a United Ireland as result of the

Brexit” Oct2016

Jan2017

38

%

Agree strongly (4)

67 61

Who would like to see a United Ireland as a result of Brexit?

The 18-34 year olds are more likely to want a United Ireland as a result of the Brexit. The same is the case among Sinn Fein voters.

61%61% 61%

Gender 71%

69%

55%

58%

60%

56%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

54-65

65+

Age

ABC1: 59%

C2DE: 63%

Social Class Region

Rest of Leinster

62%Munster

54%

Conn/ Ulster

67%Dublin

63%55 62

81

Fine Gael FiannaFail

Sinn Fein

Region Party Support

Methodology

⁄ 1,004 telephone interviews (CATI) were conducted using a random digit dial sample to ensure coverage of all households, including ex-directory.

⁄ Quotas were set and data weighted to ensure a nationally representative sample of the population aged 18+ years.

⁄ This is the 28th wave of the Consumer Mood Monitor & fieldwork was conducted 23rd-25th

January 2017.