Consumer Electronics: Abstract from market outlook and key market trends

Consumer ElectronicsAbstract from market outlook and key market trendsM15265SRA – September 2015

Video Distribution & Devices

This document is a part of our "Video Distribution & Devices" series which in 2015 includes:- Datasets in Excel- State-of-the-art reports in PowerPoint- Five market reports in Word, each with its synopsis in PowerPoint- Preferred access to our lead Media analysts

About IDATE and DigiWorld Institute

Founded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom, Internet and media markets, thanks to the skills of its teams of specialized analysts. Now, with the support of more than 40 member companies – which include many of the digital economy’s most influential players – the newly rebranded DigiWorld Institute has entered into a new stage of its development, structured around three main areas of activity:

• IDATE Research, an offer of market intelligence publications• IDATE Consulting, time-tested analysis• DigiWorld Institute, a think tank on the digital economy

Copyright IDATE 2014, CS 94167, 34092 Montpellier Cedex 5, France - All rights reserved. None of the contents of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form, including electronically, without the prior written permission of IDATE. IDATE, DigiWorld, DigiWorld Institute and DigiWorld Yearbook are the international registered trademarks of IDATE.

Contact us for further information on our publicationsIsabel JimenezP: +33 (0)467 144 404 - F: +33 (0)467 144 400 [email protected]

Laurent is responsible for studies on consumer electronics, digital home, video games, music and related phenomena: changing uses, new uses and devices, technology innovation, piracy, content protection and rights management. Laurent has developed expertise in the field of economic development and investment project engineering. He is also actually involved in studies conducted by IDATE for local authorities and their expression to define development strategies around ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) and CCI (Cultural and Creative Industries). He carries out techno-economic appraisals for innovation agencies and incubators on the issues of video gaming and multimedia content development. He participates in sector-based, market and strategic studies in the areas of ICT, television, Internet and video. He was the originator of Game Summit, which takes place during the Digiworld Summit in November each year (www.gamesummit.pro). Laurent holds a Master's degree in Economic and Financial [email protected]

Project manager, author: Laurent Michaud, Head of Consumer Electronics & Digital Entertainment Practice

Contributor: Antoine KLIFA, Consultant

Antoine has been an IDATE consultant since 2014, working in the media and digital content business unit. His main areas of focus are the economic and strategic issues surrounding TV and video distribution. Before joining IDATE, he worked for Canal+ and TF1. Antoine holds an engineering degree from the École des Mines de Nantes and an MBA in Audiovisual Production from ESG.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

1. Methodology

Copyright © IDATE 2015

Market segments· Digital media boxes

- Home video game consoles- Blu-ray player/recorders- Digital media adapters, also known as multimedia gateways, which

allow users to read audio and video content and images from other storage sources and display/play them on the TV screen. Digital media recorders are DMAs capable of recording programmes off the TV. They may come with a built-in hard drive, but the current trend tends to be DMRs without a hard drive.

· Computers- Desktop computers- Laptop computers. This sub-segment includes netbooks and notebooks.

· Televisions- The television segment includes LCD screens: LED, plasma and OLED.

These sub-segments are not displayed separately in the database.

· STB The set-top box segment includes four sub-segments:

- Cable STB- Satellite STB- Terrestrial TV STB- IPTV STB

· Portable media devices- Smartphones- Handheld video game consoles- Media tablets

2.1. Indicators

4

Indicators by devices· Domestic shipments (million units)

· installed base (million units), including an average replacement rate for each category of device

· Connectable domestic shipment (million units)

· Connectable installed base (million units)

· Penetration rate for connectable devices (% of households)

· Relationship between the percentage of homes equipped with a connectable device and the percentage equipped with this specific device (%).

Methodoly· Our four-year estimates are based on collecting data, analysing data from

our partners and industry players, and estimates of short and medium-term trends.

· IDATE consultants monitor and analyse each segment of the consumer electronics market on an ongoing basis. This enables us to obtain the economic, industrial, technological and consumption data we need to properly assess, and even anticipate how they will evolve in the coming years.


WorldwideDue to a lack of reliable data, we have not provided information on the Africa-Middle East region, except for data on televisions. As a result, with the exception of those relating to televisions, global market figures do not include the Africa-Middle East region.

Asia-Pacific· China· Japan· South Korea· Rest of Asia-Pacific

Europe· France· Germany· Italy· Spain· The UK· Poland· Russia· Rest of Europe

North America · USA· Canada

Latin America

2.2. Geographical coverage

5

4. CE market development status


4.1. More than 2.3 billion connectable devices will be sold in 2015Connectable devices represent the vast majority of CE market sales · 88% of CE market sales in 2015, and 95.2% in 2019· This huge percentage is due to very strong sales of portable media

devices (smartphones, tablets, handheld consoles), all of which are are Internet-ready.

· More and more of the TVs, DMBs and STBs sold will be connectable over the course of 2015-2019.

Higher rate of increase than for CE devices as a whole· Average annual growth for connectable devices will come to

9.5% for 2015-2019, compared to 7.4% for all CE devices together, connectable and not.

Main reasons for the rise in connected CE device sales· Increasingly ubiquitous IP capabilities on both fixed and portable

consumer electronics devices · Growing number of applications and ubiquitous services, such

as Facebook, and the range of applications from Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft… that can be accessed anywhere, anytime on a smartphone, tablet, PC and now a smart TV as well.

· Easier payment systems for mobile devices.· Proliferation of connected devices and especially portable ones.

7

Source: IDATE, Consumer Electronics, September 2015

Connectable and non smart TV sales worldwide, 2015 & 2019

Connectable and non connectable Digital Media Box sales worldwide, 2015 & 2019


Connectable and non connectable STB sales worldwide, 2015 & 2019


45%

55%

201516%

84%

2019

32%

68%

2015

5%

95%

2019

57%

43%

2015

34%

66%

2019


Market expected to start growing again in 2015· The deployment of disruptive technologies such as OLED, combined

with Ultra-HD starting in 2014, along with the introduction of HD and UHD streaming and download services lead IDATE to forecast that 2015 will mark the start of a new round of growth for the television market. Record TV sales in 2011 (265.4 million sold worldwide) could even be exceeded, as we predict sales of 310.7 million sets in 2018.

· 256.7 million TVs will be sold in 2015. Average annual growth from 2015 to 2019 will stand at 4.9%.

· The television market enjoyed a period of lively sales between 2006 and 2012, during which households purchased smart–LED–HD1080p devices. But 2012 marked the start of a downwards slide that lasted until 2014. By the end of 2015, the volume of TV sales should be roughly equal to 2013 figures. The arrival of value-added connected TV services, combined with a decrease in the price of Ultra-HD and OLED TVs, should give the TV market a real boost.

· The average annual rate of growth in Europe from 2015 to 2019 will total 4.9%, compared to 5.5% for Asia-Pacific, 3.6% for North America, 3.8% for Latin America and 4.7% for the Africa/Middle East region.

Smart TVs will account for 55% of TV sales in 2015· Smart TVs or connected TVs, i.e. Internet-ready sets, will represent 55%

of all TV sales in 2015, and close to 85% in 2019.· From 2015 to 2019, smart TV sales will therefore enjoy a stronger rate of

increase than television sales as a whole: growing by an average 16.5% a year during that period.

· 18.7% of households will have a smart TV in 2015, and 45% will in 2019.


Regional TV sales, 2015-2019 (million units)

4.2. Revived TV market growth expected in 2015

8

Connectable and non smart TV sales worldwide, 2015-2019 (million units)


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

115 98 69 61 50

141 176 222 241 260

Non connectable Connectable

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

256.7 274.8 290.6 302.6 310.7

North America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa Total


4.3. Most TVs sold in North America and in Europe are smart TVs

9

Regional TV sales, and percentage that are connectable, in 2015 (million units)

NB: All UHD TVs are considered to be connected TVsSource: IDATE, Consumer Electronics, September 2015

Europe: 65 million units

Asia-Pacific: 119.1 million units

Latin America: 22 million units

North America : 41.6 million units

Middle East & Africa: 9 million units

4%

96%

27%

73%

60%

40%

81%

19% 79%

21%


29.2 million Ultra-HD TVs will be sold in 2015· Sales could hit their peak in 2019, with 69.3 million units sold

worldwide.· This represents 46% of TVs sold worldwide.· Average annual growth for 2015-2019 could reach 102%.· Asia-Pacific is already the region reporting the strongest UHD

TV sales- Over a dozen Chinese suppliers are competing head on with

South Korean and Japanese giants in this new segment, with very aggressive price points. It is now possible to find UHD sets for close to 600 EUR.

· In 2018, Asia-Pacific will account for close to half of all UHD TV shipments.

17.1% of households will have an Ultra-HD TV in 2018· In 2019, 348.6 million TV households worldwide will have an

Ultra-HD TV, compared to 41.2 million in 2015. This translates into a penetration rate of 17.1% in 2019.

· The price war between a number of UHD TV suppliers could result in sooner than expected product rollouts.


Regional UHD TV sales, 2015-2019 (million units)

4.4. 17.1% of TV households will have an Ultra-HD set in 2019

10

UHD TV adoption (million units) and penetration rate (% of TV households) worldwide, 2015-2019


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

41 87

153 241

349

2.1%

4.4%

7.7%

12.0%

17.1%

Installed base Penetration rate

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

16.2

27.4

40.5

55.2

69.3

North America Europe Asia Pacific

Latin America Middle East & Africa

5. The set-top box (STB) segment: new features and a changing market


Growth in STB sales is levelling off due to the combined effect of cord-cutting and the growing availability of OTT content· 243.3 million digital STBs will be sold in 2015.· Sales will increase by close to 10% between 2015 and 2016. But will

drop after that, notably due to cord-cutting in developed countries, and to the rise of online services.

· From 2015-2019, the average annual growth rate worldwide will stand at 6.9%.

42.5% of STBs sold in 2015 will be connectable· In 2019, 66.4% of STBs sold will be connectable · From 2015-2019, connectable STB sales will increase at a stronger rate

than STBs as a whole: by around 19%. Source: IDATE, Consumer Electronics, September 2015

Digital STB sales worldwide, 2015-2019 (million units)

5.1. OTT slowing STB market growth

12

Connectable and non connectable STB sales worldwide, 2015-2019 (million units)


A growing number of initiatives around STBs •EchoStar CEO, Michael Dugan, announced that the company was putting the finishing touches on the design of the latest Dish Network set-top box, which will become available in late 2015. The first Ultra-HD STB from the pay-TV provider will be HDMI 2.0 and HDCP 2.2 compatible and work with Ultra-HD TVs.•In Brazil, telecom carrier TIM, a subsidiary of Telecom Italia Mobile, is gearing up to offering Ultra-HD content over its Live Blue DVR, which will be upgraded for the occasion. It will include a hard drive with more storage space, and is due to be released before the end of the year.• In mid-2015, France’s Orange announced that it would be rolling out a new, Ultra-HD compatible STB in 2016, running on the telco’s own OS. The head of the company has said that there is still too little UHD content available to set an exact timetable. Despite which its rival, Free, has announced the release of the Freebox mini 4K DVR, operating on Android and developed by Broadcom.•In Spain, a group of researchers at the University of Valencia are running the first ever tests on the DVB-T2 Ultra-HD standard at 100 frames per second.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

243.3265.9

287.0305.6 317.6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

139.8 134.6 128.8 120.0 106.9

103.5 131.3 158.2 185.5 210.8



5.2. Digital STBs sales: regional disparities

13

Regional digital STB sales, 2015-2019 (million units)


Europe: TCAM 2015-2019: 5.1%

Asia-Pacific: TCAM 2015-2019: 7.7%

Latin America: TCAM 2015-2019 de 9.6%

North America : TCAM 2015-2019: 1.6%

• 58.3% of STB shipments will be connectable in 2015




2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

23.6

24.2

24.825.0

25.2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

148.5 164.1 178.1 191.6 199.6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

26.7 30.835.0 37.1 38.4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

44.5 46.8 49.2 51.9 54.3


Steady decline in STB sales· 100.6 million digital cable STBs will be sold worldwide in

2015. We will see a steady decline in the growth rate for sales up to 2019. The cord-cutting phenomenon, which is drastically reducing the rate of increase for cable STB sales in the US – down to an average 1.9% a year – will be offset to some degree by the need for upgrades when Ultra-HD is introduced.

· Between 2015 and 2019, the average annual growth rate for cable STB sales will stand at 7.3% worldwide It will be very low in North America (1.9%), but a very healthy 11.9% in Europe thanks to progress being made in Eastern countries. The market in Asia-Pacific is also likely to benefit from the ongoing digitisation of cable TV networks.

· Connectable STB sales will account for close to 68.4% of cable STB sales in 2015, a figure that will climb to close to 100% in 2019.

A 14-point rise in penetration for connectable cable STBs between 2015 and 2019· In 2015, 11.3% of cable households will have a connectable

STB, a figure that will increase to 25.3% in 2018 – which translates into a 14-point rise in three years.

Digital cable STB sales worldwide, including connectable, 2015-2019 (million units)

5.3. Cable STBs: replacement rate pacing market growth

14

Digital cable STB adoption (million units) and penetration rate (% of TV households) worldwide, 2015-2019


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

100.6113.3 120.1

127.2 133.1

68.8

88.7104.8

119.7132.2

Digital Cable STB Domestic Shipmentso/w connectable


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

50100150200250300350400450

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

187 245 307 367426

11.3%14.7%

18.4%

21.8%25.3%



Average annual growth of 4.4% worldwide, largely thanks to Asia-Pacific· 76.8 million satellite STBs will be sold in 2015.· Sales from 2015-2019 will increase by an average 4.4% a year.· Asia-Pacific will be responsible for most of this growth, thanks to

an average 5.3% annual increase, along with North America (+5.1%). The market will also make strides in Europe and in Latin America, with average annual growth rates of 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively.

· Connectable STBs will account for 9.2% of satellite STB sales in 2015, with 7 million units sold, and for 42% in 2019 with 38.3 million units sold.

· Sales will rise by an average 52.7% a year during the period.

16.5 million connectable satellite STBs in households in 2015· In 2015, 1% of households worldwide will have a

connectable satellite STB. Despite an average annual increase of 52% from 2015-2019, only 5.2% of households will have a connectable satellite STB in 2019.


Digital satellite STB sales worldwide, including connectable, 2015-2019 (million units)

5.4. Satellite STBs: growth sustained mainly by Asia-Pacific

15

Digital satellite STB adoption (million units) and penetration rate (% of TV households) worldwide, 2015-2019


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20

40

60

80

100

76.881.6 85.6 88.8 91.1

7.0 10.817.2

26.4

38.3

Digital Satellite STB Domestic Shipmentso/w connectable

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

102030405060708090

100

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

16.5 24.8

38.258.3

87.4

1.0%1.5%

2.3%

3.5%

5.2%



Average annual growth in sales of 9.5% from 2015-2019· 38.7 million digital terrestrial STBs will be sold in 2015.

Between 2015 and 2019, the market’s progress will be sustained chiefly by Latin America and Asia-Pacific. Sales will grow by an average 9.5% a year during that time.

· Sales in North America will grow by an average of around 1.9% during the period. Some consumers may opt to top up their OTT subscriptions with terrestrial TV programming, rather than have a cable TV subscription.

· The number of connectable terrestrial STBs sold will enjoy a very solid 52.8% annual increase, on average, from 2015-2019.

· Connectable STBs will account for close to 0.4% of terrestrial STB sales in 2015, or 0.4 million units sold, rising to close 2.3% in 2019, with 2.4 million units sold.

Digital terrestrial broadcasting is not expected to develop massively in the short or medium term.· The total household penetration rate for connectable

terrestrial STBs will be very low in 2015, and continue to be so in 2019 (0.34%).


Digital terrestrial STB sales worldwide, including connectable, 2015-2019 (million units)

5.5. Terrestrial STBs: a growing market

16

Digital terrestrial STB adoption (million units) and penetration rate (% of TV households) worldwide, 2015-2019


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20

40

60

38.7 39.9 47.153.4 55.6

0.4 0.8 2.1 3.3 2.4

Digital Terrestrial STB Domestic Shipmentso/w connectable

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

1

2

3

4

5

6

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.8 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.70.05%

0.09%

0.15%

0.23%

0.34%



Still a thriving market· 27.2 million IPTV STBs will be sold in 2015 (+8.6% on average

from 2015-2019).

Growth sustained by Asia-Pacific and Latin America· Average annual growth in sales for IPTV STBs from 2015-2019

will come to 1.8% in Europe and 2.3% in North America. Europe and North America are the two markets where IPTV STB sales kicked off in the mid-2000s, so penetration rates there are already quite high: 11.1% in Europe and 10.8% in North America.

· From 2015-2019, STB market growth will be sustained chiefly by Asia-Pacific and Latin America where IPTV STBs are either just being introduced, or their adoption is only at the halfway point: penetration rates stand at 6.9% and 0.4%, respectively, in 2015. These figures will rise to 10.1% and 1.8%, respectively in 2019.

122.1 million IPTV STBs installed in households in 2015· In 2015, 7.4% of households will have an IPTV STB, which

translates into a total 122.1 million IPTV STBs around the world. In 2019, the penetration rate for IPTV STB worldwide will be 10.1%, for a total 170.1 million units deployed.

· The market’s long term growth outlook in terms of value is equally promising.


Regional and global IPTV STB sales, 2015-2019(million units)

5.6. IPTV STBs: 8.6% average annual growth between 2015 and 2019

17

Annual rate of growth for IPTV STBs, 2015-2019


2015 2016 2017 2018 201905

10152025303540

27.231.1

34.2 36.2 37.8

North America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Total

IPTV STB sales CAGR 2015-2019

IPTV STB penetration rate in

2015

IPTV STB penetration rate in

2019

North America 2.3% 10.8% 12.5%Europe 1.8% 11.1% 13.5%Asia-Pacific 11.8% 6.9% 10.1%Latin America 35.4% 0.4% 1.8%Word 8.6% 7.4% 10.1%

6. Digital Media Boxes (DMB): veteran products facing off against new streaming devices


Growth sustained by Asia-Pacific and Latin America· 187.1 million DMBs will be sold in 2015. Growth in sales

will be strong and steady up to 2019, increasing by an average 3.4% a year from 2015-2019.

· The strongest rates of increase will be in Asia-Pacific (8.4%) and Latin America to a lesser degree (3.8%). In Europe and North America the market is expected to shrink, with average annual growth of -1.7% and -1.9%, respectively.

Close to three quarters of DMBs sold in 2015 will be connectable· In 2019, virtually all of the DMBs (95%) sold will be

connectable.· From 2015-2019, the growth rate for connectable DMB sales

will be much stronger than for STBs as a whole: enjoying an average annual growth in sales of 12.5%.


Regional and global DMB sales, 2015-2019 (million units)

6.1. An average 3.5% rise in annual sales between 2015 and 2019

19

Connectable and non connectable DMB sales worldwide, 2015-2019 (million units)


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

50

100

150

200

250

187.1 200.1 204.1 207.8 213.9


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

59.6 39.2 22.3 13.4 9.7

127.5 160.9 181.8 194.4 204.2



The arrival of the PS4 and of the Xbox One in late 2013 jump started a new round of home console sales. · 42.9 million home consoles will be sold in 2015. They will hit

their peak in 2016, before starting to decline.· The average annual growth in sales from 2015-2019 will stand

at -4.6% worldwide, with a significant decline in North America (-9.2%), Europe (-11.6%) and Latin America (-8.9%). Growth in Asia-Pacific, on the contrary, will be a very healthy 11.8%.

205.3 million home consoles in households in 2015· In 2015, 12.5% of households will have a home console, for

a total 205.3 million devices installed. In 2019, the penetration rate for home consoles worldwide will stand at 14.3%, for a total 240.8 million home consoles deployed around the globe.


Regional and global home console sales, 2015-2019(million units)

6.2. Home consoles: Sony and Microsoft the top sellers

20

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10

20

30

40

50

60

42.948.8 45.3

39.2 35.5



Average annual growth in sales will be virtually nil between 2015 and 2019· 52 million Blu-ray players will be sold in 2015. Sales will grow

by an average 1% a year, worldwide from 2015-2019.· Latin America will enjoy the highest average annual growth (-

8.1%) during the period, compared to 1.3% for Asia-Pacific, less than 1% for Europe and 6.3% for North America.

· 44.7% of all Blu-ray players sold in 2015 will be connectable, a percentage that will climb to 85.2% in 2019. Sales will increase by 18.6% during that period.

63.2 million connectable Blu-ray players in households in 2015· In 2015, 12.6% of households will have a Blu-ray player (3.2%

a connectable one), which translates into a total deployed base of 246.9 million Blu-ray devices (including 63.2 million connectable ones). In 2019, the penetration rate for Blu-ray players will stand at 19.7% (8.1% for connectable ones), for a total 333.3 million Blu-ray players deployed in homes around the world (including 164.2 million connectable ones).


Blu-ray player sales worldwide, including connectable, 2015-2019 (million units)

6.3. Blu-ray players: an ailing market (1/2)

21

Blu-ray player adoption (million units) and penetration rate (% of TV households) worldwide, 2015-2019


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10

20

30

40

50

60 52.047.9

46.749.4 54.0

23.3 25.530.2

37.3

46.1

Blu-Ray Domestic Shipments o/w connectable

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20406080

100120140160180

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%

63.2 82.4

104.4131.3

164.2

3.8%5.0%

6.3%

7.8%

9.7%



6.3. Blu-ray players: an ailing market (2/2)

22

Blu-Ray goes on the counter-offensive

The future for UHD and HDR content is no doubt a digital and Internet-based one, as reflected in the initiatives we are seeing from Netflix, Amazon and Sony. Despite which, the makers of optical players do not intend on throwing in the towel. In May 2015, the Blu-Ray Disc Association announced that it had finalised the specifications for "Blu-Ray Ultra HD". The new compatible devices will be outfitted with players that can read triple layer 100 Gb discs.

The major developments include:

• discs compatible with the HDR standard;

• discs with a broader range of colours, enabling compatible TVs to render more vivid colours,

• 10-bit colour depth, which increases the number of RGB colour gradations per channel from 256 to 1024, and so delivers much more nuanced shades;

• image refresh rates will be a maximum 60 frames/s;

• Blu-ray Ultra-HD will be compatible with the HEVC compression standard, instead of the currently used AVC standard.


Average annual growth in sales of 16.3% between 2015 and 2019· 35.7 million DMA/DMR will be sold in 2015. The average annual

growth in sales from 2015-2019 will be a very solid 16.3%, making it the most dynamic digital media device segment.

· Average annual growth in sales will be over 10% in every corner of the globe, except North America (4.3%): 24.7% for Asia-Pacific, 26.1% for Latin America, 10.7% for Europe.

Virtually all DMA/DMR sold in 2019 will be connectable· 72% of DMA/DMR sold in 2015 will be connectable, a figure

that will climb to close to 100% by 2019.

43.4 million connectable DMA/DMR installed in households in 2015· In 2015, 5.5% of households will have a DMA/DMR (and 2.6% a

connectable one), which translates into 89.6 million devices installed (including 43.4 million connectable ones). The penetration rate for DMA/DMR in 2019 will stand at 12.3% (10.9% for connectable DMA/DMR), for a total 208.9 million units installed in homes around the globe (including 183.8 million connectable ones).

6.4. DMA/DMR: up and coming

23

DMA/DMR adoption (million units) and penetration rate (% of TV households) worldwide, 2015-2019


DMA/DMR sales worldwide, including connectable, 2015-2019 (million units)


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

35.744.1 51.8

58.965.2

25.6

38.6 50.2

58.5 64.1

DMA/DMR Domestic Shipments o/w connectable

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20406080

100120140160180200

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

43.4 73.7 109.9 147.5 183.8

2.6%

4.4%

6.6%

8.8%

10.9%



Average annual growth in sales of 1.2% between 2015 and 2019· 56.5 million DVRs will be sold in 2015. Sales will grow by just

over 1% a year, on average, from 2015-2019.· Asia-Pacific will be the region making the greatest progress, with

average annual growth in sales of 4.3% during the period, whereas sales in the other regions will slip into the negative.

Virtually all DVRs sold in 2019 will be connectable· 63% of DVRs sold in 2015 will be connectable, a figure that will

reach close to 100% in 2019.

69.7 million connectable DVRs in households in 2015· In 2015, 12.7% of households will have a DVR, of which 4.2%

will be connectable, which translates into a total 209.4 million devices, including 69.7 million connectable ones. In 2019, the penetration rate for DVRs will stand at 16.1% (and close to 12% for connectable ones), for a total 271.5 million DVRs deployed in households around the world, of which 200.7 million will be Internet-ready.

6.5. DVR: a stable market


DVR sales worldwide, including connectable, 2015-2019 (million units)

24

DVR adoption (million units) and penetration rate (% of TV households) worldwide, 2015-2019


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10

20

30

40

50

60

7056.5 59.3 60.3 60.3 59.2

35.7

47.956.1

59.4 58.6

DVR Domestic Shipments o/w connectable

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

50

100

150

200

250

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

69.7 104.6 141.2 174.4 200.7

4.2%

6.3%

8.5%

10.4%11.9%


7. Computers: losing their place in the home to tablets


An average annual growth in sales of -2.2% between 2015 and 2019· 226 million computers will be sold in 2015. As tablets become

increasingly popular, computer sales will begin to decline in 2015. From 2015-2019, computer sales will shrink by an average 2.2% a year, compared to an average increase of 11.3% for tablets.

Laptop computers will account for the vast majority of sales In 2015, laptop computers will represent close to three quarters of all

computer sales – a share that is expected to continue to increase up to 2019.


Regional and global computer sales, 2015-2019 (million units)

7.1. A declining market

26

Global computer sales in 2015 & 2019: desktop vs. laptop


Up until now, the computer has been the device of choice for accessing the Web at home, for virtually all users. But we expect to see tablets take on this role more and more, and replace the computer as the personal device of choice for many consumers.

Global computer and tablet sales, 2015-2019(million units)


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

50

100

150

200

250 226.0 222.2 216.8 211.0 206.4

North America Asia Pacific Latin America Total Europe

27%

73%

2015

Desktop ComputerLaptop Computer

26%

74%

2019

Desktop ComputerLaptop Computer

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

100200300400500600

318.7366.3 411.4 453.0 489.5

226.0 222.2 216.8 211.0 206.4

Media Tablet Domestic Shipments Computer Domestic Shipments


7.2. An average 2.2% drop in computer sales between 2015 and 2019, versus an 11.3% increase for tablets

27

Comparative growth rate for regional computer and tablet sales, between 2015 and 2019


Europe

Asia-Pacific

Latin America

+6.5%-2.0%

-2.5%+ 27.6 %

-2.5%+15.3%

North America

-1.7%+2.8%


Laptop computers outselling desktop computers· 60.6 million desktop computers will be sold in 2015. Average

annual growth in sales for 2015-2019 will stand at -3.3 %.· This includes an average 1.9% decrease in sales for laptop

computers, of which 165.5 million will be sold in 2015, and a mere 153.5 million in 2019.

19.2% of households will have a desktop computer and 35.7% un laptop computer in 2015· 315.9 million desktop computers will be installed in households in

2015, and 304.7 million in 2019. The penetration rate for desktop computers will decrease by 0.9 points between 2015 and 2019, going from 19.2% to 18.1%.

· 588.9 million laptop computers will be installed in households in 2015, and 648.2 million in 2019. The penetration rate for laptop computers will increase by 2.7 points between 2015 and 2019, going from 35.7% to 38.4%.


Regional and global desktop computer sales, 2015-2019 (million units)

7.3. Desktop computers losing steam

28

Regional and global laptop computer sales, 2015-2019 (million units)


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10

20

30

40

50

60

7060.6 58.6 56.3 54.3 52.9

North America Asia Pacific Latin America Total Europe

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20406080

100120140160180 165.5 163.6 160.5 156.7 153.5


8. Portable media devices: a thriving market, thanks to smartphones


Average annual growth in sales of 9.3% between 2015 and 2019· 1,706 million portable media devices will be sold in 2015. Sales will

increase steadily up to 2019.· Enjoying an average 9.3% annual increase in sales from 2015-2019,

portable media devices will be the consumer electronics industry’s most dynamic segment. Growth will continue to be stronger in Latin America (15%) and in Asia-Pacific (11.3%) than in Europe (5.9%) and North America (1.8%).


Regional and global portable media device sales, 2015-2019

(million units)

8.1. The most dynamic CE market segment

30

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1,706.01,932.0

2,124.7 2,291.3 2,439.1




Regional and global smartphone sales, 2015-2019 (million units)

8.2. Smartphones: global ubiquity

31

Smartphone adoption (million units) and penetration rate (% of TV households) worldwide, 2015-2019


Average annual growth in sales of 9% between 2015 and 2019· 1,362.9 million smartphones will be sold in 2015.· Average annual growth in sales of 9% from 2015-2019 · Average growth will stand at 12.8% in Latin America, 10.7% in

Asia-Pacific, 5.9% in Europe and 1.3% in North America.

Close to 96.1% of the population will have a smartphone in 2019· 3,499 million smartphones will be in circulation in 2015,

and 7,264 million in 2019.

· The total household penetration rate for smartphones is now above 100%, as there is more than one smartphone in many households. This rate is forecast to grow by an astonishing 180 points between 2015 and 2019.

· 48.2% of the population will have a smartphone in 2015, and 96.1% in 2019 (+47.9 points).

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1,362.91,540.5 1,689.1 1,812.9 1,921.5


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

0

1 ,0 0 0

2 ,0 0 0

3 ,0 0 0

4 ,0 0 0

5 ,0 0 0

6 ,0 0 0

7 ,0 0 0

8 ,0 0 0

0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%500%

3,499 4,346 5,173 5,960 7,265

212.2%

261.6% 309.7%355.1%

430.9%

Smartphone Installed Base (Million Units)Penetration Rate of Smartphone (%)


Average annual growth in sales of 11.3% between 2015 and 2019· 318.7 million tablets will be sold in 2015.· Average annual growth in sales for 2015-2019 of 11.3%· Latin America will enjoy an average 27.6% growth in annual sales

during that time, well ahead of Asia-Pacific (15.3%), Europe (6.5%) and North America (2.8%), where tablets have already been widely adopted.

47.9% of households will have a tablet in 2015· 790.3 million tablets in households in 2015, and 1,634.5 million in

2019

· The household penetration rate for tablets will increase dramatically during this period, climbing to 96.9% by 2019.

· 10.9% of the population will have a tablet in 2015, and 21.6% in 2019 (+10.7 points).


Regional and global tablet sales, 2015-2019 (million units)

8.3. Tablets: Steady increase in sales

32


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

50100150200250300350400450500

318.7366.3

411.4453.0

489.5


Tablet adoption (million units) and penetration rate (% of TV households) worldwide, 2015-2019

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

790 1,001 1,214 1,427 1,635

47.9%

60.2%72.7%

85.0%

96.9%



A 3.5% increase in sales from 2015-2019, but also stiff competition from smartphones· Average annual growth in sales for 2015-2019 will stand at 3.5%.

168.1 million handheld consoles in households in 2015· In 2015, 10.3% of households will have a handheld console, which

translates into a total of 168.1 million devices. In 2019, the penetration rate for handheld consoles will remain relatively unchanged: with a total 172.1 million handheld consoles in homes.

· 2.3% of the population will have a handheld console in 2019, i.e. virtually the same as in 2015.


Evolution of handheld console sales worldwide, 2005-2015(million units)

8.4. Handheld consoles: growing competition from smartphones and tablets

33

New generation handheld consoles will not sell as well as the previous generation. Which points to a change in structure for this market.

Handheld consoles are indeed facing increasingly stiff competition from mobile devices.• Handheld consoles account for 1.4% of all mobile device sales – i.e.

including handheld consoles, smartphones and tablets – in 2015.

• The late addition of standalone connectivity capabilities has put handheld consoles at a huge disadvantage.

• Smartphone and tablet’s haptics (i.e. touchscreen technology), built-in accelerometer and inclinometer have enabled the development of original gaming experiences.

Regional and global handheld consoles sales, 2015-2019 (million units)


2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

5

10

15

20

25

3024.4 25.1 24.2 25.4

28.1


05

101520253035404550


8.5. Handheld consoles represent 2.7% of total Portable Media Device sales worldwide in 2015

34

Breakdown of regional portable media device sales in 2015 (million devices, %)


Europe: 328.2 million

Asia-Pacific: 945.5 million

Latin America: 159.6 million

North America : 272.7 million

66%

31%

3%

75%

23%

2%

85%

14%

1%

86%

13%

1%


Who we areFounded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom, Internet and media markets, thanks to the skills of our teams of specialized analysts. Now, with the support more than 40 member companies – which include many of the digital economy’s most influential players – the newly rebranded DigiWorld Institute has entered into a new stage of its development, structured around three main areas of activity:

•IDATE Research, an offer of market intelligence publications: Our expertise and client list > Research

•IDATE Consulting, time-tested analysis: Our catalogue of reports > Consulting

•DigiWorld Institute, a think tank on the digital economy: Our annual programme > DigiWorld Institute

35

http://www.idate.org/en/Consulting/Assignments/Our-Assignments_67_.html

http://www.idate.org/en/Research-store/

http://www.idate.org/en/Forum/Presentation_29_.html

http://www.idate.org/en/Forum/Presentation_29_.html

Consumer Electronics: Abstract from market outlook and key market trends

Technology

Transcript of Consumer Electronics: Abstract from market outlook and key market trends