Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012
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Executive Summary
5 key predictions for growth development in 2020
Changing global economy
Demographic changes
Consumers’ changing menu
Sustainability as part of daily business
Communicating, connecting and socializing
Recommended reading
For more information, please contact us
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Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012 3
Executive Summary
In recent months, the major areas of uncertainty for the
global economy have revolved around the crisis in the
Eurozone, the future path of monetary and fiscal policy
in the United States, political instability in the Middle
East and Northern Africa and the fight against inflation
in emerging markets. As a result of this uncertainty key
decision makers in the consumer business industry have
been primarily focused on navigating their companies
securely through a turbulent global business
environment.
In addition, as the insecure global outlook is not
expected to clear in the short term it also complicates
decision making concerning long term growth
strategies.
However, aside from the economic turmoil there are
also plenty of opportunities for growth. When looking
at the long term global developments a number of key
mega-trends can be identified, which provide direction
for long term growth.
We believe that future decision making will be
increasingly driven by predictions, data-analytics and
fact-based understanding of (mega)trends. For
businesses to set their priorities and growth strategies,
solid predictions or scenarios are required to describe
what the future is expected to look like.
In this report we discuss 5 megatrends that are directly
impacting the Consumer Business Industry in 2020.
With these five megatrends we strive to inspire you to
think ahead, create scenarios and translate these
developments into priorities for your organization.
Is your organization ready to anticipate on these
changes?
Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012 5
Prediction #1
Changing global economy
Women in emerging markets spend more than Europe
Prediction #2
Demographic changes
The elderly will be the largest growth market in the U.S.
and Europe
Prediction #3
Consumers’ changing menu
Fats and sugar products will be replaced by healthier
products
Prediction #4
Sustainability imperative
Businesses will work in collaboration with regulators to
define sustainabilitystandards, going beyond regulation
Prediction #5
Communicating, connecting and socializing
Online retail sales in Western Europe and the US will have
doubled versus 2011
5 key predictions for growth development in 2020
6
Changing global economyIn 2020 women in emerging markets spend more than Europe
Emerging markets are characterized by good
demographics (e.g. rapid rise of young consumers and
a surge of the young workforce) and strong (industrial)
growth prospects. These features foster an increase of
the number of households that will move from poverty
into the middle class and beyond. It is in fact expected
that the number of people moving into the middle class
tends to grow even faster than the overall economies of
these countries. When bearing this in mind, it is not
surprising that of the 70 million new consumers that
are expected to enter the global middle class each year
a great majority will come from emerging markets;
resulting in a substantial rise of consumer spending
growth in these markets. This is in line with the
anticipation that a disproportionate share of global
growth of consumer spending will indeed take place in
emerging markets.
Enhancement of favorable governmental policies in
these markets - such as increased liberalization of
consumer finance, improved social safety nets (to
discourage customer saving), and allowance of currency
depreciation- will stimulate consumer spending even
further.
Additionally, besides the fact that the workforce is
young and growing in emerging markets, the amount
of women that become s educated rises rapidly as well;
in many of the BRIC countries girl and boy enrollments
of primary and secondary schools are almost equal1.
This development speeds up the increase in female
labor participation. Currently, on average 39%2 of the
labor force of the emerging countries is female, hence
this trend will increase the amount of two-income
households and result in an increase of discretionary
income; hence, consumer spending.
Discretionary income, and thus consumer spending, is
spurred even more because of the fact that fertility
rates are dropping in emerging markets, women’s
overall health is significantly improving (women’s life
expectancy has been prolonged with 10 years since
19901) and they increasingly decide to have children
later in live. Consequently, disposable income to spend
on consumer products and services increases.
Now consider the fact that the four BRIC countries plus
the tier 2 emerging markets together account for 3,4
billion people, more than half of the current world
population of which the top 20% already have similar
purchasing power as the average citizen of developed
countries. Taking this into account one can imagine
that the increase in expected consumer spending
within the emerging markets is tremendous.
Contrarily to the developments in the emerging
markets, it is anticipated that the European market will
offer limited growth opportunities; producing value-
conscious consumers, who are unlikely to return to
their pre-recession spending levels due to among
others tighter credits and loss of wealth.
Additionally, these consumers will be very price
sensitive and be characterized by decreased or slowly
growing discretionary spending/ consumer spending.
Another fact to take into account is that while the
workforce in emerging markets is young and increasing,
the European workforce is old and decreasing.
The prosperous outlook of emerging markets with
regard to increased consumer spending linked to the
contradictory developments in the European markets,
provides emerging markets with the opportunity to
catch up and even supersede European spending levels.
Although this trend has been ongoing since the past
decade a particularly interesting development is the rise
in income of women in emerging markets. This trend is
twofold as in the first place we see an increase in labor
participation in areas like India, Latin America and Africa.
Secondly, as women in these areas have increasingly
engaged in education this has given them access to
educated jobs which are also getting better paid.
Is your organization ready for an increase in female spending power in emerging markets?
Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012 7
To put these developments into perspective, European
disposable income in 2011 is 11,6 3 trio US Dollars 3,
which is expected to grow to 13,7 trio US Dollars in
2020 4. Respectively, disposable income in the four BRIC
countries plus tier 2 emerging markets currently is 10,2 3
trio US dollars, which is expected to grow to 30,3 trio
US dollars in 2020 4. On average 39% of the labor force
in these countries is currently female. As stipulated,
labor participation of women is increasing rapidly.
Therefore it can be expected that female participation
in emerging markets will grow towards the Western
average of 45% by 2020.
Years
Forecasted income Europe versus Emerging Markets
Dis
po
sab
le in
com
e in
$tr
io
■ Europe
■ Emerging Markets
■ Europe (forecasted)
■ Emerging Markets (forecasted)
2010
0
5
15
25
35
10
20
30
20202018201620142012
1 Source: World Bank
2 Source: International Labour Organization
3 Source: Economist Intelligence Uni
4 Source: Economist Intelligence Uni & Deloite researc Emerging markets: Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey,
Chile, Egypt, Malaysia and Taiwan,
Assuming that disposable income equals consumer
spending and is attributed to the person who earned it,
the conclusion can be drawn that in 2020 spending of
women in emerging countries will have risen to 13,6
trio US Dollar. Accounting for the fact that only the
main emerging countries are included in this number,
the total amount of spending will even be higher and
likely supersede the 13,7 trio US Dollar of Europe.
This results in the prediction that in 2020 spending of
women in emerging markets will have superseded
European spending.
Is your organization ready for this rise in female
spending power?
8
Demographic changesIn 2020 the elderly will be the largest growth market in the U.S. and Europe
In both Europe and the US the national fertility rates 1
have fallen below the replacement rate 2 of 2.1 children,
which is the replacement rate of many industrialized
nations. In many European countries fertility rates are
between 1.3 and 1.4. In the US this is 2,06 1. Besides,
given the fact that the replacement rate is currently
below the average rate of 2.1 in both Europe and the
US, it is expected that this trend will continue in the
coming decades; resulting in population decline.
Next to population decline, population aging will have
a major impact on both Europe and the US as well; it is
predicted that in 2020 the average age in Europe will
be 42,2 years 4 and in the US 37,5 years 7 compared to
39,8 years 4 and 35,5 years 7 respectively in 2010. Aging
of the population results in increased retirement rates
of which the impact in the next decade will be even
stronger due to the fact that the Baby Boom generation
will move fully into retirement in the 2020s 3.
The effect of these developments is further strengthened
by the fact that life expectancy rates have increased the
last years and are expected to grow even further.
Life expectancy rate Europe5 US5
2005-2010 75,34 yrs 78,24 yrs
2020-2025 77,84 yrs 80,14 yrs
Combining these three trends - i.e. declining birth rates,
aging population, and higher life expectancy - results in
an increase of the old-age dependency ratio 8 in both
Europe and the US. Below table indicates that the part
of the population that is relying on the working
population is increasing.
Old-age dependency ratio
Europe5 US5
2010 23,63% 19,5%
2020 29,63% 25,5%
2030 36,43% 32,5%
As such, the working population will be shrinking,
increasing the burden on this group.
Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012 9
1 The fertility rate is ‘the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing
years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age. Source: CIA World Factbook
2 The replacement rate represents the average number of children that a couple needs in order to replace themselves in a population
3 Source: Investor Insight
4 Source: Eurostat
5 Source: World Research Institute
6 Source: Deloitte Research: Consumer 2020
7 Source: http://www.doleta.gov/seniors/other_docs/AgingBoomers.pdf
8 The old-age dependency ratio refers to ‘the ratio of older dependents (people older than 64) to the working-age population (ages
15-64). Source: World Bank
9 Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision population by age, medium variant
The burden will grow even more in the coming years as
more Baby Boomers will retire; in essence relatively
fewer people will pay taxes and more people will
receive pensions and health care.
In addition, the working population’s disposable
income will also be negatively affected due to the fact
that this group of people is encouraged to save for their
own retirement rather than to enjoy all of their
disposable income (as government and employment
pension systems are not guaranteed to be in place
when this group retires).
These trends result in the conclusion that the elderly
will be the largest growth market both in the US and
Europe.
As with all developments, growth in markets and shifts
in consumer segments go hand in hand with
opportunities. When defining these opportunities take
the following into account: elderly value their time
more and seek solutions that help them maintain their
quality of life. They, therefore, are likely to spend more
on healthcare, leisure, travel and utilities such as for
instance air conditioning. Moreover, they typically
spend more on their grandchildren and are
characterized by a ‘forever young’ attitude; resulting in
increased demand for e.g. anti-aging products and
healthy food products.
When considering the above; Is your organization ready
for the opportunities of the aging population?
Years
Old-Age dependency ratio for selected countries 2000-20509
■ Brasil ■ China ■ India ■ Russian Federation ■ UAE ■ Germany ■ Japan ■ UK ■ US
2000
0%
10%
30%
50%
70%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2050204520402035203020252020201520102005
10
Consumers’ changing menu…In 2020 fats and sugar products will be replaced by healthier products
For the coming 10 years it is projected that the world’s
population will increase with 11 percent 1, resulting in
766 million1 more mouths to feed in 2020. Moreover,
at least 70 million 1 consumers will enter the global
middle class each year. Finally, in addition to the fact
that the number of consumers and their disposable
income is increasing, there will be a shift in
consumption habits as well.
When income rises, people shift from grain-based diets
to diets dominated by ‘high-value’ foods such as e.g.
dairy products, meat, fish, fruits and vegetables. As
people shift to these more varied diets, their
consumption of fats, saturated fats and sugar increases
as well. This combined with changing living standards
due to urbanization – like less physically demanding
work, automated transportation and passive leisure
pursuits such as playing video games- results in an
increase of obesity rates.
As obesity increases, consequently the costs assigned
to this disease increase as well; Public funds and
healthcare providers are negatively affected by the
consequences of obesity. This combined with rising
health care costs due to the aging population (as
described in prediction two) implies that at a certain
moment governments’ interventions focusing on
improving consumers’ eating habits will be inevitable.
Governments intervene through, for instance,
education and the introduction and enforcement of
policy acts; increasing consumers awareness of obesity
and of the negative effects of fats and sugar products.
As a result, the demand for healthier eating, functional
foods and increased transparency of food products
increases. So, following this line of reasoning, changing
diets will eventually result in the replacement of fats
and sugar products by healthier products.
1 Source: Deloitte Consumer 2020
2 Source: World Health Organization
3 Source: Department of Health and Human Services
4 Source: Reuters
5 Source: Hive Health Media
6 Source: USA Today
7 Source: McKinsey Quarterly
8 Source: Preventative Health Taskforce
9 Source: Volkskrant
10 World Obesity Statistics for OECD countries 2010
However, globally this statement is not confirmed yet,
as not all countries around the globe are at the same
point of the cycle. The more developed countries are,
the further they will be in their way towards meeting
this prediction. Nevertheless, although countries:
• are at different stages of the cycle
• move at varied paces, and
• are impacted differently from each other on all stages
it is believed that eventually they all follow the same path.
Additionally, it is predicted that by 2020 a significant
part of the developed countries will already clearly
show signs that confirm the predicted trend of
replacing fats and sugar products by healthier products.
Governments’ interventions focusing on improving consumers’ eating habits will be inevitable’
Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012 11
That countries are at different stages of the cycle and
are impacted differently is shown by the following facts
and figures:
Obesity:
• Currently, in the United States more than 33 percent
of adolescents and children are overweight or obese 3.
• Globally, 2010 counted more than 1 billion
overweight adults of which at least 300 million were
obese 1. Also, 43 million children under the age of five
were overweight in 2010 2.
• In both China and Japan, 1 in 20 women is obese,
which is respectively: 1 in 4 in Australia, 1 in 10 in the
Netherlands, and 7 in 10 in Tongo 4.
Cost of Obesity:
• 2 to 6 percent of healthcare costs are directed to
obesity in many countries4. Moreover, health care
expenditure for an obese person is at least 25 percent
higher than for a normal weight person 5.
• The total cost of overweight and obesity in Canada
was about 30 billion US dollars in 2011 6.
• The total cost of obesity in the US is at least 450
billion 7 per year of which 160 billion 7 is assigned to
obesity-related medical costs; these costs are
predicted to double by 2018.
Governmental Intervention:
• ‘In Mauritius, a government-led effort lowered the
population’s cholesterol largely by promoting
soybean oil rather than palm oil for cooking’ 8.
• In Norway, governmental interventions like price
manipulation and food subsidies proved to be
effective in turning around the shift towards high-fat
diets 8.
• Recently, the Dutch minister of public health
prioritized fighting obesity when developing
prevention policy with regard to combatting diseases
stemming from obesity 9.
In conclusion, both regulation and consumer awareness
will cause consumption habits to change, implying a
shift towards healthier diets. This trend will impact
product portfolios of food producing industries,
affecting the end-to-end value chain. Moreover, it is
expected that clear labeling by means of providing
more detailed nutritional information will become
increasingly important in the near future.
Is your organization ready for healthy diets?
Onl
ine
reta
il sa
les
($ b
illio
n)
Years
Past and projected future overweight rates in selected OECD countries10
■ USA ■ England ■ Canada ■ Spain ■ Austria ■ Italy ■ France ■ Korea
1970 1980
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1990 2000 2010 2020
12
Sustainability as part of daily business…In 2020 business will work with regulators to define sustainability standards
Recent studies 1 on regulation in the Consumer Business
Industry show a clearly identifiable cascade in the
regulatory and tax burden from more harmful to less
harmful product categories. These regulatory changes,
typically lead by developed economies, are quickly
followed by countries that are developing or emerging.
Two main drivers can be determined that cause
increasing regulation to be enforced on consumer
products:
• Health: the increasing problem of obesity and the
fast growing healthcare costs
• Environment: resource intensive industries face
scarcity of natural resources and increasing
awareness for carbon emissions and other
environmental impacts
In essence, governments have been increasingly
stimulated to develop new regulations in the form of
price policies, advertising bans or other instruments.
Case examples: The Sustainable Apparel Coalition and Electrical Cars
Recent examples have proven that collaboration and self-regulation are the key to success in overcoming or
even preventing regulation issues."The Sustainable Apparel Coalition is an industry-wide group consisting of
leading apparel and footwear brands, retailers, manufacturers, non-governmental organizations, academic
experts and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. These parties have joined forces to reduce the
environmental and social impacts of apparel and footwear products around the world. They are creating a
sustainability index that will measure the impact of a product throughout its life. The tool ensures
consistency across the industry regarding environmental product performance. The coalition started the
initiative with the aim to be ahead of the legislation and in that way influence the governments to shape the
standard.
Another example is the development of the electrical cars that started over 10 years ago. Today the first
commercial models are starting to become a success. New brands such as Tesla Cars successfully set the
standard for the future car industry. While today’s governments are considering setting-up measures to
reduce carbon-emissions, the industry already set the next step. Following these examples we expect the
industry to keep setting the next step in these developments and as such being able to define the standards
for their industry rather then being enforced.
1 Source: Deloitte Research: Strategy Insights, 2011
However, in the near future we will see the business
relationship with environmental regulators change;
As the societal need for sustainable products increases,
organizations will become more proactive in
incorporating the sustainability agenda in their growth
strategies. In addition, recent examples have shown
that sustainability initiatives can go hand-in-hand with
benefits realization as well. As such, in many areas
regulation will become a minimum standard, with most
businesses seeing the benefits of going beyond.
In addition, as organizations become more proactive in
defining their own industry standards, the traditional
role of regulatory parties will change as well. Instead of
playing an enforcement role, governments will start to
play one of collaboration and monitoring and
facilitating best practice between parties to manage
consumption.
Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012 13
Call for action: Pro-actively engage with
governmental institutions in defining sustainable
growth criteria
1.
Explore regulatory
collaboration
2.
Align your internal
capabilities
3.
Be ahead of
the game
1. Collaborate; explore the opportunities in your field to
start regulatory collaboration among other players in
the industry. We encourage businesses to proactively
engage with regulators, either collectively or
individually, to establish a level-playing field based on
industry best practices
2. Align your internal capabilities; those businesses that
recognize the potential impact of regulatory change
in an early stage, and align internal resources, R&D
and tools to influence or steer these changes, will
reap the long term benefits.
3. Be ahead of the game, first movers will enjoy early
mover advantage. Successful businesses will be those
that move quickly to develop - and commit to - a
strategic approach to assessing and shaping the
regulatory environment rather than reacting to it.
Now is the time to pro-actively engage with
governments, share best practices and collaboratively
set the standard for sustainability and other regulation
fields.
14
Communicating, connecting and socializing…In 2020 online retail sales in Western Europe and the U.S. will have doubled versus 2011
In the last decades, the Internet -and thereby the
introduction of e-commerce- has brought about a shift
in consumer behavior within the consumer-focused
industries. The Internet provides consumers with
instant access to information needed to compare, shop
and purchase items anytime and anywhere. The
increase in access to information results in consumers
who are better informed about companies, products,
services, pricing and product availability. Moreover,
they are increasingly aware of problems, recalls, and
scandals. All the above indicates that the landscape is
changing and the line between online and offline
shopping is blurring. In addition, this change is taking
effect more rapidly than expected and is impacting
tomorrow’s way of doing business.
Change is in particularly noticeable in certain categories
of consumer products. The European top 7 consumer
products that are bought online are represented in the
table below 1:
Rank Product "Online" Revenue in 2011 in Western
Europe (bln) 1
1 Electronics € 36.4
2 Apparel € 16.3
3 Groceries € 11.8
4 Automotive € 11.3
5 Media € 9.2
6 Recreation € 8.9
7 Household goods € 5.7
It is predicted that online retail sales and orientation
will grow further in the coming decade 2. Expected
growth comes forth out 3 factors:
1. More people are going online (with broadband
access or mobile broadband)
2. As people start to recognize the benefits of online
shopping channel, more consumers are shopping
online
3. As consumers are getting used to online shopping
they are spending more while shopping online
Forrester Research shows that online sales are growing;
In the US online retail sales are predicted to grow from
202 billion US dollars in 2011 to 327 billion US dollars in
2016 1. For Western Europe this is 125 billion US dollars
and 223 billon dollars respectively 1. As the impact of
the Internet will further increase in the coming years,
continued growth is expected. When taking a cautious
approach and assuming that the online retail sales
growth rate will continue at the same pace the next
decade, it results in predicted online retail sales in the
US of 444 billion US dollars in 2020 and respectively
327 billion US dollars in Western Europe. Together this
results in the prediction that in 2020 online retail sales
of Western Europe and the US together will have
doubled versus 2011.
1 Source: Forrester Research
2 Source: Emerce
3 Source: Branding Magazine
4 Source: Statista
5 Source: Deloitte US e-commerce assessment 2012
Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012 15
When anticipating to this prediction it is advised to take
into account that:
• Women represent the majority of the online market,
in which the biggest opportunities lay at affluent
women and mom consumers 3. Also consider the
increased spending power of women in emerging
markets (see prediction 1).
• 95% of smartphone users rely on mobile search;
increasing the necessity to ensure that websites are
adaptable for mobile use and that brand information
is represented properly on external search sites. This
is extremely important as it is predicted that the
smartphone will become the first screen in the
coming decade.3
• The role of product reviews is important to
consumers as it is perceived as a great benefit of
online shopping 3. It is predicted that the reviews
conducted by both consumers and experts will
continue to be important. Adding video applications
to it will be valued by consumers.
• Online shopping experiences a boost during the
holiday season, as consumers like to avoid crowded
shopping areas. For example, in the US the Monday
after Thanksgiving is the most important online
shopping day 4.
• The key to success will be delivering a personalised
online shopping experience. Companies need to
connect with consumers by offering personalised
offers or recommendations based on consumers’
characteristics. As such developing innovative and
interactive online shopping models as well as
understanding consumer needs through customer
data analytics will be essential.
• Although the Internet will increase in importance, in
2020 there still will be a place for physical stores.
Leading retailers experimenting with online fulfilment
from stores have seen their sales lift 10-20% with
reduced inventories5.
The online revolution is moving at full speed and is not
expected to slow down in the coming years. The future
of both Western Europe and the US lies in ‘bricks and
clicks’. It is important to take advantage of this
development as soon as possible to cater to the needs
of the 2020 consumer.
Onl
ine
reta
il sa
les
($ b
illio
n)
Years
Projected growth of online sales in the US and Western Europe
■ Short term projected Western European online retail sales
■ Long term projected Western European online retail sales
■ Short term projected US online retail sales1
■ Long term Projected US online retail sales1
2011 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1 Source: Forrester Research
2 Source: Emerce
3 Source: Branding Magazine
4 Source: Statista
5 Source: Deloitte US e-commerce assessment 2012
16
Recommended reading
Thought Leadership/Research Samples
Consumer 2020: Reading the signs
There is no such thing as a global consumer but this report
examines how the global trend will most likely shape
consumer spending patterns and the world of consumers
more broadly.
Global Power of the CPI 2012
– Connecting the dots
This report examines trends for companies to consider as
they plan their growth strategies, provides a global
economic outlook for retail, and discusses "Q" ratio - a way
of drawing inferences about the future performance of
retailers by examining current financial information.
Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012 17
Global Power of retailing 2012
– Switching Channels
This report identifies the 250 largest retailers and provides
an outlook for the global economy including trends to
consider for the retail industry
European eCommerce Assessment 2012
This European study presents the current state of online
retail across Europe. To produce this white paper, Deloitte
benchmarked and analyzed Europe’s top 200 online
retailers on 140 eCommerce capabilities.
18
For more information, please contact us
Erik Nanninga
Partner & Consumer Business Leader
Deloitte Consulting
Laan van Kronenburg 2
1183 AS Amstelveen
The Netherlands
Tel: +31 (0)88 288 0276
Mobile:+31 (0)6 558 53 772
Randy Jagt
Director – Growth Strategy & Emerging Markets
Deloitte Consulting
Laan van Kronenburg 2
1183 AS Amstelveen
The Netherlands
Tel: +31 (0)88 288 2371
Mobile:+31 (0)6 109 80 178
Eric Bobek
Manager – Customer Markets Strategy
Deloitte Consulting
Laan van Kronenburg 2
1183 AS Amstelveen
The Netherlands
Tel: +31 (0)88 288 4293
Mobile:+31 (0)6 123 42 671
Consumer Business Predictions & Priorities 2012 19
Is your organization ready to anticipate on these changes?
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© 2012 Deloitte The Netherlands