CONSOL Energy Advances E&P Growth Strategyinvestors.cnx.com/~/media/Files/C/Consol-Energy-IR/... ·...

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CONSOL Energy Advances E&P Growth Strategy October 28, 2013

Transcript of CONSOL Energy Advances E&P Growth Strategyinvestors.cnx.com/~/media/Files/C/Consol-Energy-IR/... ·...

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CONSOL Energy Advances E&P Growth Strategy

October 28, 2013

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Cautionary Language

2

This presentation contains statements, estimates and projections which are forward-looking statements (as defined in

Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). Such statements include estimates of reserves and

resources, projections and estimates concerning the timing and rates of return of future projects, and our future production,

revenues, income and capital spending. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause

actual results to differ materially from those statements, estimates and projections. Accordingly, investors should not place

undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of future actual results. Factors that could cause future actual

results to differ from the forward-looking statements include risks, contingencies and uncertainties that related to, among

other matters, the following with respect to the proposed transaction: The ability to obtain regulatory approvals for the

transaction on the proposed terms and schedule; disruption to our business, including customer, employee and supplier

relationships resulting from this transaction; risks that conditions to closing may not be satisfied; and the impact of the

transaction on our future operating results, our capital investment program, and our dividend. Additional factors are

described in detail under the captions "Forward Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" in CONSOL Energy Inc.’s annual

report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as

updated by any subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Qs. The forward-looking statements in this presentation speak

only as of the date of this presentation; we disclaim any obligation to update the statements, and we caution you not to rely

on them unduly.

The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible oil and

gas reserves that a company anticipates as of a given date to be economically and legally producible and deliverable by

application of development projects to known accumulations. We may use certain terms in this press release, such as EUR

(estimated ultimate recovery), unproved reserves and total resource potential, that the SEC's rules strictly prohibit us from

including in filings with the SEC. These measures are by their nature more speculative than estimates of reserves prepared

in accordance with SEC definitions and guidelines and accordingly are less certain. We also note that the SEC strictly

prohibits us from aggregating proved, probable and possible reserves in filings with the SEC due to the different levels of

certainty associated with each reserve category.

Except for proved reserve data, the information included in this presentation is based on a summary review of the title to the

gas rights we hold, as well as a summary review of the title to the coal from which many of our coalbed methane rights

derive. As is customary in the gas industry, prior to the commencement of gas drilling operations on our properties, we

conduct a thorough title examination and perform curative work with respect to significant defects. We are typically

responsible for curing any title defects at our expense. This curative work may include the acquisition of additional property

rights in order to perfect our ownership for development and production of the gas estate.

This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy securities of CONSOL Energy Inc.

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Strategy: Evolution Continues

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-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CONSOL Energy Equity (Adjusted Closing Price - NYSE)

4

CONSOL Energy’s Evolution The Past 15 Years

CNX has actively managed to high-grade the asset base

CNX Gas

listed on

NYSE January 2006

$4.0B

Marcellus &

Utica acreage

joint ventures September 2011

CONSOL Energy

IPO April 1999

DuPont/Conoco sell

CONSOL to RWE 1995-1998

$1.0B

CNX Gas

minority interest

buyback June 2010

$0.2B

Antero royalty

sale September 2011

$0.3B

AMVEST

acquisition August 2007

CNX Gas

private

placement August 2005

RWE fully divests

CNX investment 2004

CNX authorized

$0.5B share

repurchase September 2009

$3.5B

Acquisition of

Dominion

Resources April 2010

$0.4B

Monetize non-

core coal

reserves 2012

CONSOL

implements

Absolute ZERO March 2007

$3.5B

CONSOL

Energy announces

sale of five mines October 2013

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Strategy: Evolution Continues

Grow natural gas production

─ 30% annual production increase through 2016

─ Develop our liquids profile within our footprint

─ High-grade our acreage position

Aggressively manage coal margins and maintenance capital with retained mines

─ BMX mine comes online at the end of 1Q14

No transformational acquisitions

─ CONSOL is focusing on our organic growth

Constantly close the value gap

─ Continue to examine opportunities to high-grade our portfolio of assets

─ Includes non-core and infrastructure assets

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Transaction Overview

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Transaction Summary

Divesting: 5 West Virginia longwall thermal coal mines, select reserves, and river division

─ Total coal reserves of 1.1 billion tons, and production of approximately 30 million tons

─ Mines have multi-year contracts, long-lived reserves, and low capital requirements

CONSOL receives $3.5 billion in value

─ Cash of $850 million

─ Future payments with an NPV of $184 million

─ Retention of royalty on select reserves, certain water treatment payments, and tolling

fees at CONSOL’s Baltimore Terminal

Buyer acquires $2.4 billion in balance sheet liabilities

─ Includes $2.1 billion in other postretirement benefit plans (OPEB)

CONSOL currently contributes $5.50 per hour, or about $33 million per year

─ If this payment stream were to be capitalized, it would have a present value of

approximately $941 million, assuming a discount rate of 4.02%

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CONSOL’s Follow-Up Actions

CONSOL Will Reduce the Impact To Our Cash Outflows Several Ways:

In a separate action following the sale, CONSOL will be reducing its administrative

expenses by approximately $65 million per year

─ Composition of cuts to be determined before year-end

Tax efficient transaction with an expected cash tax benefit

Realign its dividend payments by $58 million per year

─ Regular quarterly dividend reduced by 50%, to $0.0625 per share

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The Process: Started Early This Year

CONSOL conducted a robust process

─ Using Stifel (lead banker) and BofA Merrill Lynch, we contacted 28 potential bidders

─ Legal representation included Greenberg Traurig LLP, Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz,

Steptoe & Johnson PLLC, and Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney PC

We received several bids by the final deadline

─ The bids were very different

Murray Energy emerged as the best candidate

─ Private firm with extensive experience with longwall operations

─ Firm financing received at signing

Expect to close by year end

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Retained Assets

Oil and Gas operations intact

Total coal reserves of 3.1 billion tons

─ Our lower sulfur and lower cost assets

Infrastructure Assets: Baltimore Terminal, midstream, and prep plants

12/31/2012 Approximate

Reserves 2014 Production 2012 Sales Revenues

Mine (in million tons) Mine Type (in million tons) ($ in millions) Logistics % Sulfur

Northern Appalachian

Bailey 395 2 Longwall 10.0 $650 Rail 2.0 - 2.5%

Enlow Fork 260 2 Longwall 10.0 $640 Rail 2.0 - 2.5%

BMX 180 1 Longwall 4.0 N/A Rail 2.0 - 2.5%

WAE 180 CM 0.1 $17 Rail 1.0%

Central Appalachian

Buchanan 98 1 Longwall 5.0 $503 Rail 0.6 - 0.8%

Amonate 21 HWM, CM - $3 Rail 0.8%

Fola 73 Surface, HWM, CM, Drag - $113 Rail, Truck 1.2%

Miller Creek 22 Surface, HWM, CM, Drag 2.0 $205 Rail, Truck 0.9 - 1.0%

Other 1,871

Total 3,100 31.1

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Valuation

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Value Proposition – Sale of Five West Virginia Mines

Note: BMX estimate is normalized for full year based on 2014 estimates.

Blacksville normalized for 2013 mine fire outage.

EBITDA Reconciliation % of Total Production Tons (in millions)

Bailey Complex / Buchanan (6 Longwalls) 72% 32

WV Mines (6 Longwalls) 28% 30

Total 100% 62

EBITDA Reconciliation EBITDA Multiple

Analysts' Avg. Coal Multiple 7.0x

Bailey Complex / Buchanan Multiple High: 8.5x Low: 7.5x

Implied WV Mines Multiple 3.1x 5.7x

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Mine 1 Mine 2 Mine 3 Mine 4 Other Mines Mine 1 Mine 2 Mine 3 Mine 4 Mine 5

$ in

millio

ns

Estimated Coal Ops EBITDA

Retained Mines Divested Mines

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Value Proposition – Sale of Five West Virginia Mines Selected Public Companies Analysis

Source: Stifel.

(1) Reflects $850 million of cash consideration plus seller estimated PV from the retention of a royalty on select reserves.

($ in millions, except per share data)

Equity (EV + LL)/

Price as of Market Enterprise Legacy (EBITDA + Servicing Cost)

Company (Ticker) 10/22/2013 Value Value Liabilites EV + LL 2013E 2014E 2015E

Teck Resources Limited (TCK) $28.04 $16,158 $20,983 $1,831 $22,814 7.4x 6.9x 6.2x

CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX) 38.37 8,776 12,046 5,325 17,371 12.4x 9.6x 8.3x

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) 19.09 5,151 10,653 1,789 12,442 10.6x 8.4x 7.1x

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) 24.11 3,692 8,636 488 9,124 6.7x 8.2x 7.6x

Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (ANR) 6.06 1,339 4,211 2,762 6,973 16.2x 12.7x 9.0x

Arch Coal, Inc. (ACI) 4.00 849 4,884 590 5,474 11.1x 9.5x 7.2x

Walter Energy, Inc. (WLT) 15.11 946 3,381 1,334 4,715 22.1x 10.8x 8.7x

1st Quartile 9.0x 8.3x 7.1x

Mean 12.4x 9.4x 7.7x

Median 11.1x 9.5x 7.6x

3rd Quartile 14.3x 10.2x 8.5x

Transaction $1,000 $3,395 $4,395 10.6x 10.2x 10.4x(1)

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Value Proposition – Sale of Five West Virginia Mines

Source: CONSOL analysis.

Note: CONSOL valuation capitalizes $34 million associated with certain water treatment payments and tolling fees at Baltimore Terminal.

Transaction Valuation Summary ($ in millions )

Capitalized Method

(excl. 1974 Pension Plan)

Capitalized Method

(incl. 1974 Pension Plan)

Cash 850 850

Future Payments:

Retention of a Royalty on Select Reserves 150 150

Certain Water Treatment Payments + Tolling Fees at Baltimore Terminal 34 34

Value of Future Payments 184 184

Liabilities Acquired:

OPEB 2,106 2,106

UMWA 1974 Pension - 941

WC / CWP / LTD / Environmental:

CWP 61 61

Workers' Compensation 105 105

Long Term Disability 13 13

Environmental 149 149

WC / CWP / LTD / Environmental 329 329

Value of Liabilities Acquired: 2,434 3,376

Total Value Received 3,469 4,410

EBITDA:

Related to Assets Delivered (Direct) 475 475

Servicing Cost Related to the 1974 Pension Plan (33) -

Related to Liabilities Delivered (Reflected above in acquired liabilities) - -

Related to Administrative Expense Reduction (65) (65)

Net EBITDA associated with transaction: 377 410

Total Value Received / Net EBITDA Reduction 9.2x 10.7x

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Strategy Going Forward

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Financial Focus to Fund Gas Production Growth

Transaction generates $850 million in cash

─ Cash is expected to fund natural gas production growth

─ Expected to generate a cash tax benefit

Transaction reduces coal MOP capex to $100 - $110 million per year, going forward

─ Retained coal mines, as a group, are the most profitable

Realignment of dividend will also provide an additional $58 million per year in funding

─ Regular quarterly dividend reduced by 50%, to $0.0625 per share

In a separate action following the sale, CONSOL will be reducing its administrative

expenses by approximately $65 million per year

After the BMX Mine is completed in April 2014, nearly all of CONSOL

Energy’s production growth will occur in natural gas

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44.5 48.6 48.4 56.1 58.2

76.6 94.4

127.9

153.5 156.3 170.0 - 172.0

210.0 - 225.0

+30%

+30%

-

100

200

300

400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bcf

e

Natural Gas Production

CONSOL is rapidly growing its natural gas production

─ Total 2013 natural gas production guidance: 170 – 172 Bcfe

─ Total 2014 natural gas production guidance: 210 – 225 Bcfe (23 – 32% growth)

─ Total 2015 and 2016 natural gas production guidance: 30% per year

Gas Division Production Results and Forecast

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Source: Company filings.

Note: Acquired ~23 Bcfe of Conventional gas production from Dominion E&P in 2010. Divested ~11 Bcfe through the Marcellus JV with Noble Energy and the Antero

Royalty Interest transactions in 2011.

Gas and Liquids Production (Bcfe)

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VA

OH PA

WV

MD

Dry Gas

Wet Gas

CONSOL Operated

430,000 Gross Acres

NBL Operated

170,000 Gross Acres

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CONSOL Wells Drilled: Dry Gas 2012 2013E

Southwest PA 45 27

Central PA 13 10

Northern W.VA 6 11

CONSOL Marcellus Total 64 48

Noble Wells Drilled: Wet Gas 2012 2013E

W.VA 25 75

2013 Marcellus Shale Drilling Program: 123 wells

Large Acreage Position within Marcellus

Fairway

87% of Acreage HBP Allowing for Development

Flexibility

─ 50% of approximately 600,000 gross acres

Average NRI of ~88%

Continue to look for bolt-on acreage

opportunities

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Marcellus Shale Acreage Tract: Pittsburgh Airport

Approximately 8,700 contiguous acres: 6 pads with up to 49 Marcellus and a

potentially similar number of Upper Devonian Wells to be drilled.

Expect first well spud before February 2015 19

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5 Underlying Marcellus Wells on Pad

Upper Devonian Exploration Well – NV39F

20

CONSOL

Nineveh Core Area

VA

OH PA

WV

MD

Dry Gas

Wet Gas

Washington County, PA

─ Drilled lateral length of 4,889’

─ Frac’d 17 stages in Burkett Shale

─ Tested 3.0 MMcfd, TIL 6/21/13

─ Currently producing 2.7 MMcfd

─ Great impact on underlying Marcellus wells

that tested 10.0 MMcfd and 9.0 MMcfd

─ Planning Rhinestreet Shale Tests

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30,000 Core

Acres, net to

CONSOL

21

Utica Shale Acreage

Hess operates in a four

county area of

Jefferson, Harrison,

Belmont, and Guernsey

CONSOL operates in

surrounding areas

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Retained Mines Sell Coal to 19 Countries

Participating in the Growth of World Coal Markets

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Participating in the Growth of World Coal Markets

Low-cost mines

Dual-rail service from Pittsburgh #8 seam mines to Baltimore

100%-owned Baltimore terminal, with capacity of 16 million tons

“Boots-on-the-ground” globally, through marketing partner

In-house R&D lab with sensor-equipped coke oven

Shipping coal to customers in 19 countries

Remaining coal has optionality

- 100% export capable

- Lowest sulfur mines in portfolio

- Nearly 100% met quality

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Capacity of 16 Million Tons

Also Retaining 100%-owned Baltimore Terminal

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Implementing Strategic Vision Towards Growth

CONSOL is participating in the growth of world

thermal coal markets

─ Retaining Pennsylvania Operations(1), which

contain:

─ Bailey Mine: 10 million tons of production

capacity

─ Enlow Fork Mine: 10 million tons of

production capacity

─ Soon-to-be-completed BMX Mine: 5 million

tons of production capacity

─ Retaining Miscellaneous:

2 million tons of production capacity

Investing to Reduce Costs

Note: All tonnage figures are approximate.

(1) All Pennsylvania Operations coal is high-vol/thermal.

25 million tons of production capacity of High-

Btu thermal/high-vol coal

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Implementing Strategic Vision Towards Growth

CONSOL is participating in the growth of world

met markets

─ Retaining premium low-vol Buchanan Mine: 5

million tons of production capacity

─ Retaining Western Allegheny joint venture:

ramping to 1 million tons of production

capacity

─ Retaining (idled) Amonate Mine: 300,000 tons

of production capacity

Investing to Reduce Costs

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Post-Transaction and Next Steps

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Post-Transaction: Capitalization Table

Capitalization ($ in millions) Pre-Transaction Pro Forma Difference

Long-Term Debt

8.00% senior notes due 2017 1,500 1,500 -

8.25% senior notes due 2020 1,250 1,250 -

6.375% senior notes due 2021 250 250 -

Baltimore bonds due 2025 103 103 -

Advance royalty commitments 20 20 -

Capital lease obligations 48 48 -

Other long-term notes 8 8 -

Total Long-Term Debt 3,179 3,179 -

Long-Term Liabilities:

OPEB 2,998 892 (2,106)

CWP 185 124 (61)

Workers' Compensation 180 75 (105)

Long Term Disability 39 26 (13)

Environmental (Mine closing & perpetual care) 491 342 (149)

Salary Retirement 90 90 -

Reclamation 57 57 -

Gas Well Closing 222 222 -

Total Long Term Liabilities 4,262 1,828 (2,434)

Total Long-Term Debt & Liabilities 7,441 5,007 (2,434)

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3.1%

2.6%

1.8%

1.3% 1.2% 1.2%0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7%

0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

-

1%

2%

3%

4%

ACI CLF BTU CNX CHK HES APA NBL APC CNXPro

Forma

EOG WLT RRC COG EQT AR ANR CLD JRCC PCX WLB KWK PETD SWN UPL

CNX Dividend Yield Peer Comparison (Current & Pro Forma)Dividend yields as of October 18, 2013

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Post-Transaction: Dividend Policy

Reducing dividend by 50% for an annual rate of $0.25 / share

─ High IRR in organic investment prospects

─ Consistent with growth strategy

─ Closer alignment with E&P peers

Reducing dividend by 50%, which is consistent with the growth strategy, and

brings CNX closer to its core E&P peer group

CNX Core

E&P Peer

Group

Pro Forma assumes no price appreciation post-transaction

CNX Dividend Sensitivity

Dividend / Share

Share Price $0.50 $0.25

$30 1.7% 0.8%

$35 1.4% 0.7%

$40 1.3% 0.6%

$45 1.1% 0.6%

$50 1.0% 0.5%

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30

What’s Next?

Continued non-core asset sales

Continue to evaluate monetizing some remaining infrastructure assets

Announce 2014 capital budget in early 2014

Year-end gas reserve report in early 2014

Continued shale investment to meet production growth targets

─ Marcellus development – expanding our liquids exposure

─ Utica exploitation converted to a development plan

─ Upper Devonian exploration

Continued bolt-on acreage acquisition within our existing gas footprint

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Implementing Our Strategic Vision

Transaction in line with our strategic goals to close the value gap

Committed to multi-year production growth

─ Marcellus Shale

─ Utica Shale

Retained coal assets generate high margins and can be sold throughout world coal markets

Management is focused on closing the value gap

Between the Coal Division, potential asset sales, and carry from our joint venture partners

(Noble/Hess), we have several funding sources to help execute our multi-year 30% Gas Division

production growth