CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · 2015. 12. 10. · Notes and sources Long-term chart period...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

PORTUGAL 2CALENDAR 10NOTES 12

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist

OLGA COSCODAN EconomistCARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH EconomistMIRIAM DOWD Editor

PUBLICATION DATE 31 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 24 March - 30 March 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 30 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 5 May 2015

Portugal • April 2015

FOCUSECONOMICS Portugal

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

Portugal

REAL SECTOR | Drop in industrial production slightly less pronounced in February In February, industrial production declined 1.0% over the same month of last year, which marked a slight improvement compared to the revised 1.3% fall tallied in January (previously reported: -2.1% year-on-year). According to Statistics Portugal (INE), February’s less pronounced decrease in industrial output was the result of a strong rebound in the electricity, gas and water sector as well as a sharp increase in mining. The electricity sector swung from a 7.2% fall in January to a healthy 2.8% rise in February. The mining sector accelerated from January’s 20.1% increase to a strong 30.7% rise in February, marking the highest reading since October 2011. Manufacturing was the only sector that deteriorated compared to the previous month’s result, contracting 2.0% in February (January: -0.1% yoy).

Compared to the previous month, industrial output fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in February. The result contrasted the 1.6% rise tallied in January. Annual average growth continued to worsen in February, falling to 0.2% from January’s 0.6% increase.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rise 1.6% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, participants expect industrial output to expand 3.0%.

Outlook improves

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Cecilia SimkievichEconomist

Portugal

Last year, Portugal exited its EUR 78 billion bailout program and the economy expanded for the first time since 2010. Moreover, the government announced a plan in February to make an early repayment of a portion of the bailout loan, reflecting its renewed fiscal soundness. In spite of these notable achievements, the center-right coalition government’s popularity is still at low levels due to four years of painful austerity measures that were determined by the terms of the bailout program. The country faces general elections in the final quarter of this year, and recent polls suggest that it will be a close call between the government coalition and the Socialist Party. The evolution of the economy will be crucial, with a continued economic rebound likely tipping the balance in favor of the current governing coalition.

The Portuguese economy is expected to accelerate this year, mainly underpinned by stronger export growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 1.6% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel foresees the economy growing 1.7%.

Harmonized consumer prices dropped 0.1% in February, easing from the 0.4% decline recorded in the previous month. FocusEconomics panelists see harmonized inflation averaging 0.1% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016.

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth of industrial production index in %.Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Year-on-Year

Annual average

%



April 2015

The Bank of Portugal expects the economy to expand 1.7% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that GDP will expand 1.6% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 1.7%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence and economic climate improve in MarchThe consumer confidence index rose from minus 19.4 points in February to minus 17.5 points in March, marking the highest reading since April 2002 and prolonging the upward trend that has been observed since the beginning of 2013. According to the Statistical Institute, the rise in consumer confidence reflected improvements in all the sub-components that comprise the index. Consumers were particularly more optimistic regarding their opportunities to purchase durable goods and the evolution of their own financial situations in the last 12 months. Households’ expectations regarding the outlook of the country’s economic situation also improved markedly compared to the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 1.7% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects private consumption to also increase 1.6%.

The economic climate indicator remained in optimistic territory and inched up from 0.3 in February to 0.6 in March, which marked the highest print in six months.

Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 2.8% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. The panel sees fixed investment expanding 3.1% in 2016.

Leading Indicators

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

-75

-50

-25

0

Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15

Consumer Confidence (left scale)Economic Climate (right scale)



April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019



April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Portugal (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estatistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.6 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.

6 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 5 | Consumption | variation in %



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

16 | Public Debt | % of GDP

13 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Portugal (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estatistica) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: INE.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.14 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt



April 2015

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Current Account Balance

17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

19 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

18 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in % Consumer Prices and Current Account Balance

20 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Portugal (INE), Eurostat and the Bank of Portugal (BP). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: INE.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: INE.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BP.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

22 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 21 | Current Account | % of GDP



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Portugal in the Region

Population | %-share in Euro area GDP | %-share in Euro area

Portugal1.7%

Germany28.1%

France20.7%Italy15.6%

Spain10.2%

Other23.8%

Portugal3.2%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other21.2%

Other EU-27

16.7%

Spain32.1%

Germany11.5%

France6.6%

Other33.1%

Other EU-27

18.0%

Spain22.7%

Germany12.5%

France11.9%

Other35.0%

Other19.4%

Manufact. Products63.1%

Mineral Fuels17.5%

Other6.9%

Manufact. Products74.6%

Mineral Fuels7.2%

Food11.3%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Attractive tourist destination

• Large fiscal deficit and public debt

• High exposure of banks to sovereign risk

• Highly developed logistics and communications infrastructure

• Limited size of manufacturing industry• Strong commitment to economic

reforms

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 184Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 978Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 43.4Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 46.6Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 5.2Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 227CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 51.2

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Ba1 StableS&P: BB StableFitch Ratings: BB+ Positive

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 42.7Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 113Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 62.1Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 23.8

Transportation (2013) Airports: 64Railways (km): 3,319Roadways (km): 82,900Waterways (km): 210Chief Ports: Leixoes, Lisbon, Setubal

Official name: Portuguese RepublicCapital: Lisbon (2.8m)Other cities: Porto (1.3m)Area (km2): 92,090Population (million, 2014 est.): 10.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 114Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.1Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 79.0Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 4.6Language:

Measures: Metric systemTime: GMT

Portuguese and Mirandese

Prime Minister: Pedro Passos CoelhoLast elections: 5 June 2011Next elections: October 2015Central Bank Governor: Carlos da Silva Costa

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event31 March Euro area February Unemployment31 March Euro area March Consumer Prices (*)31 March Ireland Q4 2014 National Accounts31 March Italy March Consumer Prices (*)31 March Spain January Balance of Payments 31 March Spain February Retail Sales1 April Greece April Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)1 April Ireland March Investec Manufacturing PMI1 April Italy March Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 April Netherlands March NEVI Manufacturing PMI1 April Spain March Markit Manufacturing PMI3 April Ireland March Investec Services PMI7 April Cyprus March Consumer Prices7 April Spain March Markit Services PMI8 April Ireland March Consumer Confidence (**)9 April Germany February Industrial Production9 April Germany February Merchandise Trade9 April Greece February Industrial Production10 April Finland February Industrial Production10 April France February Industrial Production10 April Ireland February Industrial Production (**)10 April Spain February Industrial Production13 April Italy February Industrial Production14 April Euro area February Industrial Production14 April Italy March Consumer Prices 14 April Spain March Consumer Prices15 April Euro area Central Bank Meeting15 April Finland February Balance of Payments15 April Finland February Trend Indicator of Output15 April France March Consumer Prices17 April Euro area March Consumer Prices17 April Austria March Consumer Prices20 April Cyprus January Industrial Production20 April Portugal April Leading Indicators20 April Portugal March Industrial Production22 April Netherlands April Consumer Confidence23 April Euro area April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Business Confidence23 April Germany April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April Germany May Consumer Confidence24 April Austria February Industrial Production24 April Belgium April Leading Indicators (*)24 April Belgium February Industrial Production24 April Germany April Business Confidence24 April Netherlands April Business Confidence

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event28 April France April Consumer Confidence29 April Euro area April Economic Sentiment29 April Austria April Consumer Confidence29 April Austria March Unemployment29 April Austria April Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI29 April Belgium April Consumer Prices29 April Belgium Q4 2014 National Accounts29 April Germany April Consumer Prices (*)29 April Italy April Consumer Confidence29 April Italy April Business Confidence29 April Spain March Retail Sales30 April Euro area March Unemployment30 April Euro area April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Austria Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)30 April Italy April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Spain February Balance of Payments 30 April Spain February Housing Permits30 April Spain Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)1 May Greece May Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)1 May Ireland April Investec Manufacturing PMI1 May Italy April Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 May Netherlands April NEVI Manufacturing PMI4 May Spain April Markit Manufacturing PMI

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total global output:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.Euro area (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member.Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members.MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.Additional Countries: Switzerland and South Africa.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

© Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Euro Area is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Euro Area (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

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INDICATORS INCLUDED

PortugalCalendarNotes

CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · 2015. 12. 10. · Notes and sources Long-term chart period...

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