Modeling energy

demand from

India’s transport

sector

Scenario building using a

bottom-up national

transport demand model

16th April 2015

ConnectKaro, New Delhi

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Need for developing demand side

energy and emissions estimates

Top-down estimates from supply side useful for

Creating energy and emissions inventories

Ex-post assessment of policy/tech. interventions

Activity based bottom-up estimates help determine

Underlying factors resulting in a certain level of energy/emissions

Ex-ante estimates of different interventions

Present exercise showcases the outcomes of a bottom-up transport demand and related energy and emissions estimation modeling exercise

2

Objective of the exercise

Determining the present and

future demands of energy

by the transport sector in

India and identifying ways to

reduce its energy needs

under various scenarios

3

Energy demand for transport is an

outcome of transport demand, mode

and technology choice

1. How much do people and goods travel

2. What modes do they use to travel

3. What fuel/technology is used to drive these modes

4. How much energy do these modes consume per unit of travel

5. What is the aggregate demand for energy for transport

4

Bottom-up transport demand

estimation

Passenger

Vehicle types

Utilizations

Occupancies

Technologies

Efficiencies

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Activity Mode Share

Intensity Fuel Mix

ASIF Framework

Freight

Vehicle types

Utilizations

Loadings

Technologies

Efficiencies

An example of the bottom up transport

demand and energy estimation

Estimating passenger transport demand met by cars

Total volume of registered cars (-) life of vehicles = total volume of on-road cars (x) Daily utilization of cars (km) (x) Fleet utilization – avg. percentage of cars being used

daily (%)

(x) Occupancy (Average no. of passengers) = PASSENGER KILOMETERS generated on cars

Segregating this number by vehicle fuel efficiencies give the resulting fuel used, and thereby the energy

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Total Transport

Passenger

Road

Cars/

Jeeps

Petrol

Diesel

CNG

LPG

xEVs

Taxis

Diesel

CNG

LPG

Three Wheelers

Petrol

Diesel

LPG

CNG

Two Wheelers

Petrol

Electric

Buses

Diesel

CNG

xEVs

Rail

Diesel

Electric

Air

Freight

Road

HCV

LCV

Rail

Diesel

Electric

Air

Multiplicity of modes and technologies

complicates the modeling exercise

7

Transport of passengers and goods using

inland waterways, coastal shipping and

pipelines is being taken up for the next

version of the tool

Model outcome Estimates of transport demand and energy

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How much do people and goods travel

in India? Motorized mobility in

India 2011-12 ~5,967 km/person (7,255

BPKM) 1,604 BTKM

Compares lowly to international transport demands UK 2011 - 14,247

km/person US 2011 – 28,500

km/person EU 2009 – 11,700

km/person

Transport demand is expected to continue to grow rapidly Increased economic

activity Higher levels of

urbanization

Improved access to transport systems

By 2046-47: Passenger: 18,978

km/person (32,342 BPKM) Freight: 16,653 BTKM

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

Growth in energy consumption by the transport sector

Freight Passenger

Components of energy consumption in the

transport sector

7 times growth in energy use

is expected between 2012 and 2047 (6% CAGR)

40%

60%

Freight Passenger

45%

55%

Freight Passenger

Energy shares in 2012

Energy shares in 2047

73

mtoe

523

mtoe

93%

5% 2%

ROAD RAIL AIR

94%

2%

4%

ROAD RAIL AIR

73

523 MTOE 2011-12

2046-47

What modes do people travel

on?

As of 2011-12 Most passenger travel happened on roads

Railways occupied only 14 per cent of the total passenger traffic

Aviation saw a very rapid growth in the last decade – still low share of traffic

Road based public transport (bus/omni-buses) occupy about 75 per cent of the total road traffic

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ROAD

85%

RAIL

14%

AIR

1%

BUS

73%

ONMI-

BUS

2%

CAR

7%

2W

13%

3W

3% TAXI

2%

Passenger transport shares in 2011-12

What fuel technology is used to drive

these passenger modes?

As of 2011-12

Road transport consumes almost only petroleum products

Alternate fuel penetration is still very low and restricted to few urban centers

Half the railway traffic moves on diesel and the other half on electric traction

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100%

77%

40%

18%

43%

96% 99% 99%

50%

2%

10%

3% 1% 1% 2% 7% 2% 0%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2W CAR 3W TAXI ONMI-BUS BUS RAIL

Share of passenger traffic on different fuel types within each mode

PETROL DIESEL CNG LPG ELECTRIC

The present and future passenger

transport energy consumption

37%

3% 18%

18%

7%

9%

4% 4%

BUS

ONMI-BUS

CAR

2W

3W

TAXI

RAIL

AIR

15% 1%

38%

9%

13%

15%

1%

8% Energy shares in 2012

Energy shares in 2047

0

100

200

300

400

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

BAU levels of passenger transport energy

consumption (mtoe)

• 73% of the present

passenger traffic moves on

buses and omni-buses

consuming 40% of the

energy

• Cars and Jeeps handle

only about 6% of the traffic

but consume over 18% of

the energy

By 2047

• Energy consumption by

personalized modes of

transport continue to increase

• Aviation is expected to drive

2.5% of the mobility - consuming over 8% of the

energy of passenger transport

• Share of rail based transport

to marginally decline (14% to

12%)

Creating Energy Security

Scenarios Various types of scenarios created for the

Indian Energy Security Scenarios 2047 tool

Methods of reducing energy demand

for passenger transport considered

Considered four possible ways of reducing the energy demand for passenger transport

1. Reducing the total demand for passenger mobility Better planning and strategic urban development to cut

down travel

2. Shifting mobility to more energy efficient modes Mode shift from air and road to rail based transport

3. Increasing the share of road based public transport More urban bus services and introduction of transport

demand measures to reduce private vehicle use

4. Introduction of energy efficient road vehicles Increasing the energy efficiency of private road vehicles

by introduction of electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles

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Transport trajectories

considered for the IESS 2047

Six different line levers considered for the transport sector

4 passenger transport lines

2 freight transport lines

4 different levels under each lever

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Reducing levels of passenger

transport demand Four levels of passenger transport demand considered

Level 1: Business as usual levels of demand

Increased economic growth, increased access to transport

Continuous increase in the annual distance travelled per person

Level 2: Moderate effort (~10% demand reduction)

Increase in the number of activity centers across the country

Increasing urbanization leading to reduced migration trips

A reduction of per capita mobility demands in smart cities

Level 3: Dedicated effort (~20% demand reduction)

Aggressive use of ITES applications reducing the demand for travel

Corporate and industrial personnel travel planning

Level 4: Herculean effort (~30% demand reduction)

Herculean effort scenario, with incentive schemes to reduce commute trips

Work – residence – recreation trips better organized to reduce travel demand

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Improving the share of the

railways in passenger mobility Trajectories visualized progressively increasing the share of railways

Level 1: Business as usual mode shares Continuous increase in the share of personalized road vehicles

Increasing energy intensity for passenger transport

Level 2: Moderate effort

Increased focus on rail based transport (metro, train-sets, rapid rail)

Focus on increasing the share of railways

Level 3: Dedicated effort

Railway projects given top priority in planning – few HSR corridors and

RRTS across various urban centers

Share of railways improves further

Level 4: Herculean effort

Metros and RRTS become commonplace across large urban centers

HSR to complement air travel on longer distances across the country

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Other levers to reduce the

sector’s energy use Movement to public transport and efficient vehicles

Better urban designs and plans allowing increased use of public transport

Increased of efficient vehicles on electric and hybrid traction

Freight transport demand reduction Improved use of logistic planning in freight mobility to reduce

redundant freight movements

Growth of industrial clusters thereby allowing combined movement of similar traffic

Improved freight transport mode choice Incentivize the movement of freight from road to rail

Improved last mile connectivity for railway services

Railways moves from being a mobility provider to a complete transporter

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Large reductions in energy

possible using all the levers

About 43% reduction possible from the 2047 energy consumption levels

Combined options: Demand reduction, mode choice, public vehicles, efficient electric vehicles

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43% reduction

Limitations, lessons learnt

and the way forward Outlining the issues for building activity based

transport sector energy and emissions estimation

models

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Limitations of the activity based energy

estimation methodology

Methodology useful for a closed system

such as the domestic transport sector

Difficult to implement under porous

systems such as states or cities/urban

centers

Difficult to determine appropriate boundary

conditions for non-stationary sector like

transport

Requires a large number of data items

to increase the robustness of the model 22

Lessons learnt from developing a transport

demand and energy estimation model

Useful methodology for estimating impacts of

mode and technology choice changes at a

macro-national level

Tool is easily customizable to evaluate the

impacts of various kinds of policies/programs

Acute limitation in the availability of data

related to transport use in India

Identified a very long list of data items that

could be useful for increasing the robustness

of the model

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Way forward

Increase the use of such scientific methods in making infrastructure investment choices

Possible to incorporate costs and pricing

Fine tune methodology to also develop state, regional and city level energy emissions transport models

Start incentivizing different transport related agencies for collecting various data items

Need to put in place systems to regularly collect transport activity related data at all levels (urban, rural, intercity)

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THANK YOU

For more information on Transport Modeling exercise: sarbojit.pal@teri.res.in

India Energy Security Scenarios 2047: http://indiaenergy.gov.in/

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