CHAPTER : 6 ANALYZING CONSUMER MARKETS CONNECTING WITH CUSTOMERS.
Connecting Markets East & West - NOMURA · Connecting Markets East & West February 2017 ... PEMEX:...
Transcript of Connecting Markets East & West - NOMURA · Connecting Markets East & West February 2017 ... PEMEX:...
STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
© Nomura
Connecting Markets East & West
February 2017
A product of Sales and Trading and not investment research
Latin America Corporates – searching for value
Emerging Market Credit Trading
Source: Bloomberg; EPFR
Latam Corps | EM technicals
Technicals for EM corporates were supportive for most of 2016 with positive
funds flows for most of the year that turned sharply negative following the US
presidential election in early November. 2017 has gotten to a positive start
with positive fund flows through January.
Another supportive technical for EM corporates is the sizeable cash-flows
going back to investors from principal and interest payments which we
estimate to total approximately $66bn during 2017. The bulk of P&I payments
will come from Asian corporates at about $39bn while LatAm corporates
should pay about $16bn and CEMEA $10bn.
Solid inflows supported a solid issuance calendar that say $280bn in gross
issuance priced during 2016. Asia represented over 50% of total issuance and
Latin America priced about $53bn in new bonds.
For 2017, we expect a similar level of gross issuance for LatAm ($50bn to
$60bn). YTD 2017 LatAm corporates have issued $10.6bn in bonds with
Petrobras accounting for about 40% and Argentine corporates with about 20%
of the total.
EPFR fund flows for EM
Weekly flows (USD
millions) Cumulative
Last
week Previous
week 4-wk avg
3-MO Z-score 2015 2016
Total EM flows 1,660 (374) 747 (3.38) (24,803) 29,92
6
Local Currency funds 625 (699) 106 (3.09) (11,710)
13,574
Hard Currency funds 1,025 289 603 (3.43) (8,891)
20,553
Blended Funds 10 36 38 (3.02) (4,202) 2,480
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028+
EM corporate P&I
LatAm Asia CEMEA
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16
EM debt weekly fund of flows
1
Source: Bloomberg
Latam Corps | recent performance
The recovery in commodity prices during 2016 was supportive EM corporates with the yield for the Barclays EM Agg index tightening nearly 100bp
during the year with EM IG yields tighter by about 40bp while EM HY tightened by about 220bp in yield.
In terms of regions, during 2016 LatAm tightened by nearly 200bp in yield while Asia tightened by about 45bp. Within LatAm, Brazil outperformed,
tightening about 360bp in yield while Mexico tightened only 30bp.
EM corporates in general and LatAm corporates specifically have continued to perform YTD 2017 with EM Agg tighter by about 20bp with LatAm
tighter by nearly 40bp, Asia about 14bps tighter and Brazil continuing to outperform and about 75bps tighter.
Relative to US corporates, EM IG trades at about a +40bp spread to US IG while EM HY trades about +190bps to US BBs.
Despite the rally in LatAm during 2016 and YTD 2017, LatAm continues to offer compelling value relative to Asia at +270bp pickup in yield.
In terms of credit fundamentals, we think 2017 will be mixed amid tepid economic growth, uncertainties around US policy that could drive US rates
higher and EMFX weaker and lead to deteriorating balance sheets.
In this context, we prefer credits with improving fundamentals stories and sufficient credit spreads to cushion any rate and FX volatility (Argentine
corporates, Quasi sovereign O&G) as well as those that are exposed to US growth (Cemex). We remain cautious IG credits trading at historical
tights as well as credits that generate local currency cash flows (Andean utilities, IG telecoms).
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
bp Yield
EM IG vs US IG EM IG US CORP
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
bp Yield
EM HY vs US BB EM USD HY US BB
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
Yield
LATAM - Asia USD LATAM Asia AGG
Latam Corps | oil and gas quasi-sovereigns
PEMEX: We see more value in the long-end, but think overall valuations are fair. We believe that if oil prices hold, there could be room for another
~25bp of tightening relative to the sovereign, as we expect lower levels of issuance (compared to 2016), improved (although still negative) cash flow
generation and additional farmouts. The tightening, however, could be limited by Pemex’s weak credit metrics, declining production, supply risk and
uncertainties regarding Mexico’s outlook. Our economists believe that a combination of headwinds to growth (coming from trade policies in the U.S.) and
fiscal risks could result in a one-notch downgrade of Mexico, which would have consequences for Pemex ratings.
PETBRA: We still like the PETBRA curve given improving fundamentals and higher absolute yields compared to most quasis and other opportunities in
the Latam corporate space. We believe PETBRA will continue to deliver on asset sales, market-oriented fuel price adjustments and gradual
deleveraging. In our view, the biggest risk for valuations is potential political volatility in Brazil. While the current spread-to-sovereign seems tight
compared to the last couple years, it is in line with the pick-up offered by the other quasis. Our favorite bonds in the curve are the ‘26s, as they offer the
highest spread in the belly, highest spread to sovereign and have lower supply risk compared to the ’27s. We also like the ‘40s and ‘41s, given a
combination of high spreads and lower dollar price. We think the ‘22s are the most expensive bonds on the curve and would prefer to switch to the ‘23s
for a 30bp pick-up in spread and 10pts lower dollar price for 1yr additional duration.
YPFDAR: Although YPF bonds offer the lowest pick-up to the sovereign, we believe this is justified, as the company has the lowest leverage (~2x NL)
compared to other quasis and operates in a strategic sector which should benefit from favorable government policies. We prefer the ’25s given a spread
pick-up of 55bp vs the ‘24s. 3
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura, company reports.
'21
'21 N '22
'23
'24
'26 '27
'40 '41
'43
'44
2115
5.5 21
6.375 21
'22 3.5 23
4.625 23
'24 '25 4.5 26
6.875 26
'35 '38
'41
'44 '45
'46
'47 '49
'23 '25
'26
'43
'45 '21
'24
'25
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
Z-Spread
Duration Petrobras Pemex Ecopetrol YPF
'21
'21 N
'22
'23
'24
'26
'27 '40
'41
'43
'44
5.5 21 6.375 21
'22
3.5 23
4.625 23
'24
'25 4.5 26
6.875 26
'35
'38 '41
'44
'45 '47 '49
'23
'25
'26
'43
'45
'21
'24 '25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
Spread to Sov
Duration Petrobras Pemex Ecopetrol YPF
Latam Corps | Oil Drillers ODEBRE ’21s & ‘22s
4
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura, company reports.
Average Dayrate
Dis
co
un
t R
ate
280 300 320 340 360 380
7.5%
0.29
0.33
0.38
0.42
0.46
0.50
10.0%
0.27
0.30
0.34
0.38
0.42
0.46
12.5%
0.24
0.28
0.31
0.35
0.38
0.42
15.0%
0.22
0.26
0.29
0.32
0.36
0.39
17.5%
0.20
0.24
0.27
0.30
0.33
0.36
20.0%
0.19
0.22
0.25
0.28
0.31
0.34
22.5%
0.17
0.20
0.23
0.26
0.29
0.31
Average Dayrate
Dis
co
un
t R
ate
300 320 340 360 380 400
7.5% 0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
10.0% 0.41
0.46
0.51
0.55
0.60
0.65
12.5% 0.38
0.42
0.47
0.51
0.56
0.60
15.0%
0.35
0.39
0.43
0.47
0.52
0.56
17.5%
0.32
0.36
0.40
0.44
0.48
0.52
20.0%
0.30
0.33
0.37
0.41
0.45
0.48
22.5%
0.28
0.31
0.35
0.38
0.42
0.45
ODEBRE ‘21s
Bonds are backed by cash flows of two 6th gen drillships (Norbe VIII/IX)
contracted until 2021, with est. dayrates of ~$390k and ~$415k.
We estimate current prices of $47-48 imply: (i) a discount rate of 15%; (ii)
dayrates are cut by 10-15% to $355k and contracts are not extended; (iii)
93% avg uptime; (iv) the rigs distribute ~$20m in dividends to the holdco; (v)
the transaction fully covers all opex and capex; (vi) rigs are worth ~$150m
each in 2021; (vii) LoCs of $100m used at maturity to pay bonds.
There could be upside for the bonds if negotiations with Petrobras are
NPV neutral (on a per rig basis) and/or provide certainty that contracts will
remain in place, allowing investors to use lower discount rates. Additionally,
bonds could benefit if higher oil prices translate into expectations of higher
valuations for the rigs (which cost ~$700m each to build).
In an optimistic scenario in which negotiations are NPV neutral for each rig
and the assets are worth $175-200m each at maturity, bonds could be worth
close to 70c if we use a 10% discount rate.
ODEBRE ‘21s Recovery – Sensitivity Analysis
ODEBRE ’22s Recovery – Sensitivity Analysis ODEBRE ‘22s
Bonds backed by two 6th gen drillships (ODN I/II) contracted until 2022,
with est. dayrates of ~$364k, and one 5th gen semi-sub (Norbe VI)
contracted until 2019 with est. dayrate of $340k. Tay IV was terminated.
Current prices ($35-36) imply: (i) 15% disc. rate; (ii) dayrates kept at
current levels and contracts not extended; (iii) Norbe VI isn’t renewed; (iv)
93% avg uptime; (v) rigs send ~$20m in to holdco; (vi) the transaction fully
covers all opex and capex on rigs; (vii) 6th gen rigs worth ~$150m each at
maturity and Norbe VI $50m; (viii) LoCs of ~$160m used at maturity.
There could be upside to current levels if negotiations with Petrobras are
NPV neutral and/or provide certainty that contracts will remain in place,
resulting in lower discount rates. Bonds could also benefit if higher oil prices
translate into expectations of a renewal of Norbe VI’s contract in 2020 and/or
higher valuations for the rigs.
In an optimistic scenario in which negotiations are NPV neutral, Norbe VI
is renewed in 2019 and the assets are worth an average of $175m each at
maturity, bonds could be worth close to 50c if we use a 10% discount rate.
Latam Corps | Odebrecht Construction (ODBR)
We acknowledge the leniency agreement was a very positive
development, but remain cautious on the credit.
Since the announcement of the execution of agreement on December
21 (which imposed a R$3.8bn fine on the company), political authorities
from several different countries have announced that they plan on taking
measures against the company.
We believe the main questions for 2017-2018 are whether OEC will
be able to preserve liquidity and win new contracts.
We estimate that ~40% of ODBR’s 3Q16 backlog ($21bn) could be
at risk of cancelation/non-performance, as the company had $4.6bn
in contracts in Venezuela, $2.6bn in Peru, $350m in the Navalena
project (Colombia) and $733m in projects with no variation vs 2Q16.
For ODBR to have a cash position of $1bn+ at YE17, we estimate that
the company would need to have a working backlog of $13bn at YE16,
win $2.5bn in new projects (guidance is$4bn in 2H17), monetize at least
$300m in overdue A/R, and give no additional intercompany loans.
For ODBR to maintain a runrate EBITDA of ~$450-500m and neutral
FCF before WC, we believe the company would need to maintain a
backlog of $18-20bn with a 3yr average life and 8% margins.
We believe the above scenarios seem challenging considering the
company’s current situation, and therefore do not recommend the
bonds to investors.
5
Source: Nomura, company reports.
3Q16 Adj Avg
Life
Adjustments
to backlog
Adj. Backlog
At 3Q16
Backlog 21,311 13,003
Brazil 4,950 3.74 4,950
Abroad 16,361 3.52 -8,308 8,052
Venezuela 4,596 -4,596
Peru 2,627 -2,627
Colombia - Navalena 352 -352
Contracts with no /\ qoq 733 -733
2017 Forecast Negative Base Positive
Working Backlog at YE16 11,503 13,003 15,000
Avg life 3.0 3.0 3.0
Addl backlog 2H17 500 1,500 4,000
Avg life 3.0 3.0 3.0
Revenues 3,918 4,584 5,667
From current backlog 3,834 4,334 5,000
From new backlog 2H17 83 250 667
COGS (~80%) (3,134) (3,667) (4,533)
G&A (~12%) (470) (550) (680)
Implied EBITDA 313 367 453
EBITDA margin 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Interest on bonds and bank debt (205) (205) (205)
Insurance fees (25) (25) (25)
Fines – Brazil, US, Switzerland (60) (60) (60)
Other fines (100) (75) (50)
Capex (59) (69) (85)
Taxes (47) (55) (68)
WC (313) (163) 150
Advances Used (588) (688) (850)
Advances received (15%) 75 225 600
Overdue A/R received 200 300 400
Intercompany loans (given)/received (100) - 350
FCF (908) (447) 610
ST debt rolled / (paid) (210) (100) -
Cash at YE16 (est.) 1,300 1,350 1,400
Cash at YE17 182 803 2,010
Debt 3,317 3,317 3,417
Fine 1,152 1,152 1,152
Net Debt including fine 4,286 3,666 2,558
GL incl fine 14.26 12.19 10.08
NL incl fine 13.68 10.00 5.64
Source: Bloomberg
2017 has been a busy month for Argentina with the sovereign issuing $7bn in bonds and Argentine corporates issuing a further $2.1bn. The bulk
of the corporate activity was concentrated in the utility space, including Pampa, AES Argentina and Genneia.
We expect Argentine utilities will benefit from improvement in the regulatory and tariff framework during 1H17, ahead of the midterm elections in
October. The government recently announced increases in electricity tariffs that will raise end-user costs by up to 150%. Despite this steep
increase, Argentina power tariffs remain amongst the lowest in the region. The tariffs are due to take effect March 2017 (absent legal challenges)
and will benefit the large distribution companies serving Greater Buenos Aires, potentially setting them up to come back to the capital markets
later in the year.
On the generation front, the recent new issues have included large players such as AES Argentina and Pampa and smaller generators (Albanesi,
Genneia) characterized by high leverage (circa 3.5x - 4x) for the next two years as they expand capacity.
Our preferred credit in the Argentine utility space is Pampa given its diversified business mix (oil, gas and power generation), its relatively low
leverage (1.75x proforma) and the potential for credit upside across its businesses.
o We like the Pampa 27s which trade to a 2025 call at 510bp in zspread, provide +70bp pickup to Pampa 23s, +80bp pickup to the sovereign and
better liquidity than the smaller generators.
Argentine utilities should benefit from higher tariffs
Latam Corps | high yield utilities
6
AES 24
AlBA 23
GNIA 22
Pampa 23
Pampa 27
CBVS 21
ARG19
ARG 21
ARG 22
ARG 26
ARG 27
ARG 28
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Z-Spread
Duration
AES 24
AlBA 23
GNIA 22
Pampa 23 Pampa 27
CBVS 21
CLBN 24
CLBN 20
GUACl 25
KALLPA 26
CALLAO 23
ELEBRA 21
ELEBRA 19
FERMAC 38
ECLCI 25 TRANSM 23
ECLCI 21
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Z-Spread
Duration
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura
• The Digicel Limited (“Opco”) curve remains attractive relative to other TMT HY opportunities at a +200bps pickup to longer dated bonds (LBTYA,
MIICCF). We prefer the DLLTD 6% 2021 given its shorter duration, comparable dollar price and a slight 10bp give up relative to the DLLTD 2023s.
• Opco bonds have been rallying late November 2016 and are now some 300bp tighter. Compared to the Digicel Group (“Holdco”), Opco bonds have
outperformed with Opco 2021s now about -450bp inside the Holdco 2020s and 2022s versus about 400bp at the end of November 2016. The bonds
should continue to benefit from a supportive technical backdrop absent any negative operating surprises.
• The Opco’s performance is underpinned by:
o Declining capex should translate into sustained free cash flow generation necessary to refinance debt.
o Fair / manageable liquidity. The next major debt maturity for Opco is the amortization of 25% of the DIFL bank facility March 2018. We think that
the banks will likely refinance given leverage through the secured tranche is only 1x.
o The Opco has other sources of potential liquidity, including sale and lease back of towers.
• The main risk to our view include:
o Seasonally higher capex during fiscal 2H could lead to deteriorating credit metrics in the short term.
o Significant deterioration in Opco FX basket. To date, the Jamaican and T&T currencies have been relatively stable, down only about 2%.
A disorderly restructuring at Digicel Group.
Digicel Limited remains attractive despite rally
Latam Corps | high yield TMT
7
DLTD 20
DG 20
DLTD 21
DG 22
DLTD 23
MIIC 20
MIIC 21 COMCL 24
COLUIF 21 COLTEL 22
COLTEL P
VTR 24
CBVS 21
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
OAS-Spread
Duration
Debt Structure as of Sep 30, 2016Amount
Security Description Outstanding Leverage Net leverage Comm. L/B
Cash $152
Opco-level debt
Senior Secured debt
DIFL Facility $856
Total senior secured debt $856 1.0x 0.8x Debt maturity profile
FY'2017 0.5% $17
Senior unsecured debt FY'2018 8.4% $290
DLLTD 7 02/15/20 $250 B FY'2019 18.2% $628
DLLTD 6 04/15/21 $1,300 B FY'2020 8.7% $300
DLLTD 6 3/4 03/01/23 $925 B FY'2021 0.0% $0
Total senior unsecured debt $2,475 3.8x 3.7x FY'2022 37.6% $1,300
FY'2023 26.7% $925
Total opco-level debt $3,331 3.8x 3.7x $3,461
Net Debt $3,179
LTM EBITDA $871
LTM Interest Expens $202 4.3x
Source: Bloomberg
Trade Theme: Iron ore price volatility is not the same for everyone
Latam Corps | metals & mining
Iron ore recovery has been driven by continued Chinese demand and marginal supply reductions from the 3 majors, but price outlook appears
skewed to the downside after 76% YoY increase from $46/t to the current $81/t.
Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports are back to record highs, China’s manufacturing PMI data has declined for each of the past 3 months and threat
of oversupply could be exasperated if higher cost Chinese iron ore production comes back on line given rise in prices.
Long VALEBZ 39s at 107bp wide (Z-spread) to SCCO 42s – spread differential should continue to converge with expectations for similar NL at
FYE17 (low 2.0x) as VALEBZ remains committed to deleveraging. We see FV closer to 25-50bp apart considering that VALEBZ and SCCO traded
within a narrow (+/- 25bp) band before the 2015 commodity crisis.
Short CSNABZ and SAMMIN – given liquidity constraints both credits are dependent on spot prices to amend respective financial situations.
o CSNABZ - lower spot market makes asset sales more difficult and could cause debtholders to be less willing to negotiate $9.3bn of obligations.
o SAMMIN – bonds appear to be “priced to perfection” despite numerous regulatory, environmental and operational questions that still remain. Even
with parent support, manageable liability settlement and operational re-start, lower spot prices could alter bondholder recovery assumptions. 8
5.625 '19
4.625 '20
5.875 '21
4.375 '22
6.25 '22
7.2 '32
8.25 '34 6.875 '36 6.875 '39
5.625 '42
5.375 '20
3.5 '22 3.875 '25
7.5 '35 6.75 '40 5.25 '42
5.875 '45
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
Z-Spread
Duration VALEBZ SCCO
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
CSNABZ 6.5 20 SAMMIN 4.125 22
Iron Ore $/t
Source: Bloomberg
Trade Theme: Can the grind continue?
Latam Corps | proteins
We remain positive on the outlook for the Brazilian protein space given expectations for increased cattle availability by mid-2017, continued expansion
of the export market and potential for bonds to benefit from scarcity value as JBS pursues its re-organization to become a US listed company.
Long JBS SA bonds versus JBS USA bonds - JBSSBZ 7.25% 24s offer 115-125bp pick-up (Z-spread) to similar maturity JBS USA bonds.
o JBS aims to complete its plan to consolidate and IPO all businesses, except Brazilian beef, under the newly proposed US listed entity, JBSFI.
o IPO should generate proceeds for deleveraging, improve transparency and provide cheaper funding as entity moves from EM to US HY.
o We expect JBS SA and USA bonds to converge back to 25-50bp (Z-spread) apart as the plan materializes in coming months, after initially tightening
to a 50bp differential when initiative was first announced in December.
Long BEEFBZ 26s and MRFGBZ 23s - For investors not inclined to take on the “Batista risk” that accompanies the re-domiciling, Minerva and Marfrig
also stand to benefit from the improving industry backdrop and ample liquidity while providing relatively attractive yields of 6.5 – 6.75%.
o If JBS is successful in migrating towards US HY, US$2.5bn of existing JBS SA debt may shift to US HY indices, leaving traditional EM investors with
limited options in the Brazilian beef space. Conversely, if the process is unsuccessful, JBS investors may look to swap into the higher yielding
comps within the space.
9
JBS SA '20
JBS SA '23 JBS SA '24
JBS USA '20
JBS USA '21
JBS USA '24 JBS USA '25
MRF '19
MRF '20
MRF '23
BEEFBZ '26
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0
ytw %
Years to Maturity
JBS SA JBS USA
MRFGBZ BEEFBZ
Nomura Latin America Platform
10
JP Alvarado
Managing Director
Head of Latin America Credit
Trading, Americas
Brazil, Venezuela and
Ecuador
Elias Abud
Executive Director
Chile, Colombia, Mexico,
Panama, Peru and Uruguay
Leandro Infantino
Executive Director
Argentina, Costa Rica,
Dominican Republic, El
Salvador, Guatemala,
Jamaica and Trinidad and
Tobago
David Matty
Executive Director
High Yield and Distressed
Corporates
Bruno Cipriani
Executive Director
Investment Grade Corporates
with focus in Mexican and
South American Financials
Jennifer Wohland
Vice President
High Yield and Investment
Grade Corporate Mix
Siobhan Morden
Managing Director
Head of Latin America Fixed
Income Strategy
Argentina, Uruguay and
Venezuela
Julian Rios
Executive Director
TMT, Utilities and Financials
Edward Santevecchi
Vice President
Metals & Mining, Food &
Beverage, Consumers and
Pulp & Paper
Marcela Nagib
Vice President
Oil & Gas, Industrials and
Infrastructure
Mario Robles
Executive Director
Head of Latin America Local
Markets Strategy
Brazil, Chile, Colombia and
Mexico
Benito Berber
Executive Director
Head of Latin America
Economics
Brazil and Mexico
Mario Castro
Vice President
Latin America Research
Chile, Colombia and Peru
João Pedro Ribeiro dos
Santos
Associate
FX Research
Brazil
Credit Trading: Sovereign and Corporate Strategy/Corporate Coverage Research
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